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Midwestindy
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Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:45 pm

Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service
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southwest1675
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:47 pm

Interesting figures. As far as my home airport of BNA, I expect them to get CDG service soon.
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BNAMealer
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:54 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service


Why is MCI so high? That’s shocking.

Interesting to see BNA so high despite having near daily year round BA service. There is probably room for DL to add BNA-CDG or AMS as well.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:57 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service


Why is MCI so high? That’s shocking.

Interesting to see BNA so high despite having near daily year round BA service. There is probably room for DL to add BNA-CDG or AMS as well.


These are only airports that currently have TATL service and it goes off their currently level of service. MCI only has 4x weekly on a 757. So it, like CHS, has service but not much compared to everyone else so they should have a higher number. You have bigger planes going to the other markets more frequently.
 
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United787
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:02 pm

Note, this only shows airports WITH current transatlantic service. I am sure there are numerous cities that currently have NO transatlantic service (like CLE) that could support a transatlantic flight well before many of the cities shown here would get an additional flight or even an "upgauge" in aircraft or more frequencies.
 
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TWA302
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:03 pm

Not shocking to see the huge delta in the chart seeing as MCI has seasonal TATL service. So with one airline on 4x weekly from May-Sep that skews the numbers.
Nice pitch chart though. STL would be above that stat if we had one TATL too,
Last edited by TWA302 on Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:03 pm

Just wondering, why is O&D the metric used and not all passengers, including connecting? Makes it appear places like PHL and ATL are far overserved when in fact they see enough connecting passengers to fill the seats.
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Jetty
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service

The graph is skewed by using a weird metric: if Albuquerque would have 1-weekly service by Icelandair it'd top the lost of most underserved routes. :roll:
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:24 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service


Why is MCI so high? That’s shocking.

Interesting to see BNA so high despite having near daily year round BA service. There is probably room for DL to add BNA-CDG or AMS as well.


Since this is June only

Considering BNA was offered 5x weekly on a B788, I estimate BNA had around 643 pax/day to Europe. Keep in mind, some of the O&D will be captured by BA increasing to daily, and also capturing more premium traffic with the B789

A few other ones that were easier to calculate
CVG should be at 654 pax/day, since DL ran daily B763 (High J configuration) in the summer
IND should be at 655 pax/day, since DL ran daily B763 (Low J configuration) in the summer
MCI should be at 585 pax/day, since FI ran the B738M(154 seat) 4x weekly
CHS should be 274 pax/day
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mutu
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:27 pm

Jetty wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service

The graph is skewed by using a weird metric: if Albuquerque would have 1-weekly service by Icelandair it'd top the lost of most underserved routes. :roll:


Actually no. If an airport currently has only say 600 seats a week, and O&D is measured as 650 a week, then the ratio would show the airport to have almost perfect supply to demand.
(although I accept to get into this analysis there must currently be TATL service of some sort - but that is logical as otherwise the mathematical ratio would be non-determinable as one of the parameters would be 0)
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:28 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
Just wondering, why is O&D the metric used and not all passengers, including connecting? Makes it appear places like PHL and ATL are far overserved when in fact they see enough connecting passengers to fill the seats.


That data is readily available through the DOT, this information presented is not.
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:48 pm

It's a non-sensical metric, in that it's a measure of demand from single U.S. airports to all of Europe. A flight, oh, MCI-LHR doesn't fix the alleged underserved problem - it just gives another connecting gateway. MCI already has one-stop services (via ORD, JFK, DTW, EWR, ATL, PHL...) to all of the major European destinations. It's not like there are many people traveling MCI-Graz and lamenting their 3-segment itineraries.

This kind of stuff is consultant malpractice. Ask for your money back kind of stuff. It's an intellectual embarrassment - like the 'demand to everywhere in Canada' nonsense that was propagated recently.
 
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
It's a non-sensical metric, in that it's a measure of demand from single U.S. airports to all of Europe. A flight, oh, MCI-LHR doesn't fix the alleged underserved problem - it just gives another connecting gateway. MCI already has one-stop services (via ORD, JFK, DTW, EWR, ATL, PHL...) to all of the major European destinations. It's not like there are many people traveling MCI-Graz and lamenting their 3-segment itineraries.

This kind of stuff is consultant malpractice. Ask for your money back kind of stuff. It's an intellectual embarrassment - like the 'demand to everywhere in Canada' nonsense that was propagated recently.



This is a perfect example of how numbers lie and about how we can manipulate data to say what ever we want the data to say. Obviously there was an agenda to why the data was presented this way.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
steex
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:11 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service


Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development for the Kansas City Aviation Department. Emphasis added to his full position/employer as it is very important for context in terms of what the data show.

I think it goes without saying that, if MCI were still lacking TATL service, they wouldn't report an unusual metric that excluded all US cities that don't have TATL flights.
 
EBiafore99
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:14 pm

This chart partially makes sense. On the < 1.0 side, 13 of the 16 are hub cities (I excluded BOS, FAI and SWF). I would expect them to have more seats than O&D.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:15 pm

steex wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service


Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development for the Kansas City Aviation Department. Emphasis added to his full position/employer as it is very important for context in terms of what the data show.

I think it goes without saying that, if MCI were still lacking TATL service, they wouldn't report an unusual metric that excluded all US cities that don't have TATL flights.


What's your point? I specifically included his name and title, because I knew people would ask why MCI is highlighted.

Still useful information regardless

klm617 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
It's a non-sensical metric, in that it's a measure of demand from single U.S. airports to all of Europe. A flight, oh, MCI-LHR doesn't fix the alleged underserved problem - it just gives another connecting gateway. MCI already has one-stop services (via ORD, JFK, DTW, EWR, ATL, PHL...) to all of the major European destinations. It's not like there are many people traveling MCI-Graz and lamenting their 3-segment itineraries.

This kind of stuff is consultant malpractice. Ask for your money back kind of stuff. It's an intellectual embarrassment - like the 'demand to everywhere in Canada' nonsense that was propagated recently.



This is a perfect example of how numbers lie and about how we can manipulate data to say what ever we want the data to say. Obviously there was an agenda to why the data was presented this way.


Non-sensical? "having no meaning; making no sense."

Talk about exaggeration
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steex
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:29 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
What's your point? I specifically included his name and title, because I knew people would ask why MCI is highlighted.


The point is that data which show MCI most in need of more TATL service have been provided by the Kansas City Aviation Department - data have to be viewed through the correct prism when unusual metrics are selected, which is the case here, and additional skepticism is appropriate when those unusual metrics are used to show a results that uniquely benefits the agency providing the data.

You specifically included the person and his title, but not his employer - which most people certainly wouldn't know off the top of their heads and is very important here. If Justin Meyer was the Deputy Director of Aviation for the Chicago Department of Aviation, that would alleviate suspicion that metrics were chosen specifically to favor MCI. As it stands, skepticism about the motivation for the exact, unusual metrics shown seems warranted.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:32 pm

steex wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
What's your point? I specifically included his name and title, because I knew people would ask why MCI is highlighted.


The point is that data which show MCI most in need of more TATL service have been provided by the Kansas City Aviation Department - data have to be viewed through the correct prism when unusual metrics are selected, which is the case here, and additional skepticism is appropriate when those unusual metrics are used to show a results that uniquely benefits the agency providing the data.

You specifically included the person and his title, but not his employer - which most people certainly wouldn't know off the top of their heads and is very important here. If Justin Meyer was the Deputy Director of Aviation for the Chicago Department of Aviation, that would alleviate suspicion that metrics were chosen specifically to favor MCI. As it stands, skepticism about the motivation for the exact, unusual metrics shown seems warranted.


If you are skeptical of the data, ignore it and move on with your day
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steex
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:44 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
steex wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
What's your point? I specifically included his name and title, because I knew people would ask why MCI is highlighted.


The point is that data which show MCI most in need of more TATL service have been provided by the Kansas City Aviation Department - data have to be viewed through the correct prism when unusual metrics are selected, which is the case here, and additional skepticism is appropriate when those unusual metrics are used to show a results that uniquely benefits the agency providing the data.

You specifically included the person and his title, but not his employer - which most people certainly wouldn't know off the top of their heads and is very important here. If Justin Meyer was the Deputy Director of Aviation for the Chicago Department of Aviation, that would alleviate suspicion that metrics were chosen specifically to favor MCI. As it stands, skepticism about the motivation for the exact, unusual metrics shown seems warranted.


If you are skeptical of the data, ignore it and move on with your day


For the record, I'm not skeptical of the data - the data are surely real. I'm skeptical that it means anything because the dataset has been purposely selected to exclude airports which may be more underserved but lack service.

Moving on with my day now.
 
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:10 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service

Huh, hubs that aggregate service have more seats than their O&D demand. I tell you I am shocked, shocked!

The cities with more O&D than service probably have to hub to most EU destinations and I'm happy many hubs are in the USA.

Demand is never met for non-hubs. With slots precious at EU hubs, that will only become more severe with time.

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klm617
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:18 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
steex wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
What's your point? I specifically included his name and title, because I knew people would ask why MCI is highlighted.


The point is that data which show MCI most in need of more TATL service have been provided by the Kansas City Aviation Department - data have to be viewed through the correct prism when unusual metrics are selected, which is the case here, and additional skepticism is appropriate when those unusual metrics are used to show a results that uniquely benefits the agency providing the data.

You specifically included the person and his title, but not his employer - which most people certainly wouldn't know off the top of their heads and is very important here. If Justin Meyer was the Deputy Director of Aviation for the Chicago Department of Aviation, that would alleviate suspicion that metrics were chosen specifically to favor MCI. As it stands, skepticism about the motivation for the exact, unusual metrics shown seems warranted.


If you are skeptical of the data, ignore it and move on with your day



Yes I agree if only more people on a.net had this mindset this would be a so much better place for people to share their ideas and aspirations and we could really foster some critical outside the box thinking here.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Jshank83
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:30 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

MCI should be at 585 pax/day, since FI ran the B738M(154 seat) 4x weekly


This was a 757 because they obviously weren't running it on a MAX. :smile:

So that might change their number a bit.
 
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service

Huh, hubs that aggregate service have more seats than their O&D demand. I tell you I am shocked, shocked!

The cities with more O&D than service probably have to hub to most EU destinations and I'm happy many hubs are in the USA.

Demand is never met for non-hubs. With slots precious at EU hubs, that will only become more severe with time.

Lightsaber


I think the chart would be interesting - maybe more so - without the hubs included. A place like SWF or PVD doesn't have many sensible hub connections for European flights (though they do bleed to nearby larger airports). So I expected a low number for them. But also would have expected points pretty far south and west, which have thousands of daily seats to hubs with dozens of TATL flights, to show up near the top of this table. So seeing SAN and PHX close to the top doesn't surprise me. Seeing IND and BNA up there does.
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:46 pm

Thanks, Midwestindy, for sharing this thought-provoking graphic! After looking at it closely, my two burning questions were 1) Who's flying transatlantic from Fairbanks (Condor, seasonally to Frankfurt is the answer there) and 2) Where does this Justin Meyer work? (with guesses Kansas City or Charleston based on the agenda-based metric selection). So thanks, Steex, for providing the relevant info!
 
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:07 pm

Why does SWF so overserved on TATL routes?
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:12 pm

Why do a.netters think every city should have non-stop service and “underserved” means lacking not having non-stops? Everyone of those cities has service to Europe thru multiple hubs.

GF
 
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:41 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
It's a non-sensical metric, in that it's a measure of demand from single U.S. airports to all of Europe. A flight, oh, MCI-LHR doesn't fix the alleged underserved problem - it just gives another connecting gateway. MCI already has one-stop services (via ORD, JFK, DTW, EWR, ATL, PHL...) to all of the major European destinations. It's not like there are many people traveling MCI-Graz and lamenting their 3-segment itineraries.

This kind of stuff is consultant malpractice. Ask for your money back kind of stuff. It's an intellectual embarrassment - like the 'demand to everywhere in Canada' nonsense that was propagated recently.


I second your thoughts.

This data is silly both from what you describe which I would call the “back end”, i.e., with respect to the destination being all of Europe, but also from the “front-end” with respect of only selecting cities who currently have TATL service, and with no regards to where that service is to and whether that service serves mainly connecting or O&D traffic.

Bottom line is that the data is presented in a very misleading manner - in that I am not sure what sort of useful conclusions could be gleaned from it given the issues mentioned above.
 
drdisque
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:49 pm

I would count BOS as a hub since a significant portion of the TATL service there exists because of DL feed and B6 codeshares.

SWF is rather unique as nearly all TATL pax there are O&D on the Norwegian flight, so this metric is really just Load Factor (which is augmented a little bit by the handful of people that flew SWF-PHL-Europe or SWF-DTW-Europe).
 
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:53 pm

I wonder if this metric was produced to try to fend off the fact that FI might be considering ending MCI service and this metric was created to try to keep them in the market.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:33 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

MCI should be at 585 pax/day, since FI ran the B738M(154 seat) 4x weekly


This was a 757 because they obviously weren't running it on a MAX. :smile:

So that might change their number a bit.


Good catch!

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Why do a.netters think every city should have non-stop service and “underserved” means lacking not having non-stops? Everyone of those cities has service to Europe thru multiple hubs.

GF


"Unserved" would be the term for airports lacking non-stops, "underserved" implies there is service already.

lightsaber wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Image

Justin Meyer of Deputy Director of Aviation - Marketing and Air Service Development provided an update about ratio of TATL seats to O&D.

Very surprised CHS is so high on the list.

Would like to see if this has any implications on future air service

Huh, hubs that aggregate service have more seats than their O&D demand. I tell you I am shocked, shocked!

The cities with more O&D than service probably have to hub to most EU destinations and I'm happy many hubs are in the USA.

Demand is never met for non-hubs. With slots precious at EU hubs, that will only become more severe with time.

Lightsaber


SWF, SFB, FAI, PVD, e.t.c are not hubs

flybaby wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
It's a non-sensical metric, in that it's a measure of demand from single U.S. airports to all of Europe. A flight, oh, MCI-LHR doesn't fix the alleged underserved problem - it just gives another connecting gateway. MCI already has one-stop services (via ORD, JFK, DTW, EWR, ATL, PHL...) to all of the major European destinations. It's not like there are many people traveling MCI-Graz and lamenting their 3-segment itineraries.

This kind of stuff is consultant malpractice. Ask for your money back kind of stuff. It's an intellectual embarrassment - like the 'demand to everywhere in Canada' nonsense that was propagated recently.


I second your thoughts.

This data is silly both from what you describe which I would call the “back end”, i.e., with respect to the destination being all of Europe, but also from the “front-end” with respect of only selecting cities who currently have TATL service, and with no regards to where that service is to and whether that service serves mainly connecting or O&D traffic.

Bottom line is that the data is presented in a very misleading manner - in that I am not sure what sort of useful conclusions could be gleaned from it given the issues mentioned above.


:lol: A.net is too funny, I have never seen people get so worked up about something so trivial before.

"Consultant malpractice" "silly" "non-sensical" "intellectual embarrassment"

Keep the comedy going, I have a long work week ahead of me!
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trexel94
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:45 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
It's a non-sensical metric, in that it's a measure of demand from single U.S. airports to all of Europe. A flight, oh, MCI-LHR doesn't fix the alleged underserved problem - it just gives another connecting gateway. MCI already has one-stop services (via ORD, JFK, DTW, EWR, ATL, PHL...) to all of the major European destinations. It's not like there are many people traveling MCI-Graz and lamenting their 3-segment itineraries.

This kind of stuff is consultant malpractice. Ask for your money back kind of stuff. It's an intellectual embarrassment - like the 'demand to everywhere in Canada' nonsense that was propagated recently.


If that’s your logic then why bother adding flights beyond the traditional coastal hubs? What’s your reasoning for IND-CDG or PDX-AMS? Can’t those passengers go through ORD and SEA? Your bias and ignorance is obvious.
 
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:06 pm

Left side = big three hub.
Right side = WN hub or not really a hub for anyone, but a lot of traffic.
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
smallmj
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:19 pm

How about BGR? I could drive to BGR to catch well priced TATL flights. :D
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:15 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
A flight, oh, MCI-LHR doesn't fix the alleged underserved problem - it just gives another connecting gateway. MCI already has one-stop services (via ORD, JFK, DTW, EWR, ATL, PHL...) to all of the major European destinations.

For clarification though, you're the one assuming/limiting these data to mean "Europe."

It only says "TATL," which could (and by the likes of ICAO/IATA definition, does) also include India, the MidEast, and essentially all of Africa.... which adding another Euro-side gateway would significantly address, in terms of reducing connection count and increasing potential routings, versus options provided by a stateside hub.

And while no one's making the case for massive amount of transit pax flying MCI-CAI or BNA-DEL; the case can certainly be made for sufficiency of connections, for O&D traffic from some of the larger or more specialized gateways on the list, to secondary and tertiary TATL markets.
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:25 pm

klm617 wrote:
I wonder if this metric was produced to try to fend off the fact that FI might be considering ending MCI service and this metric was created to try to keep them in the market.


FI just announced they are cancelling service to MCI in 2020.
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Re: Most Underserved US TATL Markets

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:11 am

smallmj wrote:
How about BGR? I could drive to BGR to catch well priced TATL flights. :D


When’s the last time BGR had transatlantic service (i.e. local pax boarded) for anything but a fuel stop? The 1980s? Heck when’s the last time BGR had regular fuel stop flights (i.e. not ad-hoc)?

As for MCI, well there goes that analysis!

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