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rjsampson
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Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:11 pm

Their projections, within 10 years: They will process 200 million passengers a year (um, DOUBLING ATL??)... especially as an almost purely international hub, with comparatively minimal domestic flights? I'm highly skeptical.

Thoughts?
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FlyRow
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:22 pm

It wont. The new airport was needed, the being the biggest part is prestige.

Yes it will grow, if turkeys political and economy stays stable, But it won't be the biggest.
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Jetty
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:23 pm

If you look at the predictions on this board 4 years ago already then it was predicted IST would see huge growth. Yet in the meantime IST went from being the 11th largest airport in the world to being the 17th largest. The domestic economy is failing, the geopolitical situation around Turkey is volatile and leadership is weak. Until those 3 factors change I don’t expect any of the hype to become reality.
 
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:36 pm

There should be plenty of growth for the sheer fact that the center of gravity of global air traffic demand is moving eastward and Istanbul is very well placed to connect it along with the IATA prediction that air travel demand will double by 2037. Also, keep in mind Turkey today is already a large aviation market itself with 210mil+ annually travelers with Istanbul itself being is over 100mil of that.
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patrickjp93
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:40 pm

With Oman essentially becoming #4 in the ME3, Turkey's growth prospects are not looking good, especially with the European sentiments about the ME and migrants right now. That's even before we get to Erdogan and the deflating economy there.
 
YangFeng
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:56 pm

Istanbul Atatürk closed earlier this year, so no. The new IST I believe might have a shot at becoming the world's busiest airport. Not saying it will, but it definitely has a shot. Both TK and IST are significant and will become even more significant over time, with Turkey as a large home market and directly competing with the ME3 for transit pax. My best guess is about 130-140M pax at IST in 2030.
 
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:02 pm

The new airport was desperately needed. IST/Ataturk was operating way above its design limits.

Whether traffic doubles or not in 10-years is probably not the point, but regardless Turkey has one of the largest home aviation markets unlike ME3 which will provide significant traffic base. Today only 1/3 of of TK passengers are international connections, and TK has stated is seeks to grow this to 1 in 2, which if everything else remains the same means an additional nearly 20 mil pax more at new IST alone.
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klakzky123
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:05 pm

If Turkey had ever managed to join the EU, I think this would have been plausible. But everything took a completely different turn so now I'm not sure what their competitive advantage is over the ME3
 
MANMatthew
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:15 pm

Short answer: no.
Long answer: noooooooooo.
 
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:43 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
If Turkey had ever managed to join the EU, I think this would have been plausible. But everything took a completely different turn so now I'm not sure what their competitive advantage is over the ME3


I thought their geographical position allows for use of narrowbodies to start and eventually grow smaller markets.
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peterinlisbon
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:58 pm

Firstly, Istanbul Ataturk Airport is now closed and used only for cargo flights.

Regarding "Istanbul Airport" (the name of the new airport), yes I believe that it will happen. Turkish Airlines already flies to more countries than any other airline in the world and it was severely restricted at the old Ataturk Airport. That place was probably once plenty big enough, but by the time it closed it was incredibly overcrowded and a new airport or an expansion was desperately needed. The scale of the new airport is incredible and it has plenty of space to build several new runways and another terminal.

Unlike the ME3, Istanbul has a population of 20 million and the population of Turkey is 80 million. It is right on the doorstep of Europe, enabling direct flights with A320/737 aircraft to pretty much any city in the continent. The location in terms of geography is perfect and economically and politically it also has many advantages over the Middle East.

For example, if the Iran/Saudi dispute gets serious, Qatar/Emirates/Etihad and Gulf Air will all suddenly find themselves in the middle of a war zone. Saudi Arabia is blockading Qatar and Iran could blockade and deny overflight to all of these countries, but Turkey has a relatively good relationship with Iran. Strategically Turkey is right at the crossroads between Asia and Europe.

Ataturk Airport is now used as an exhibition center for trade fairs and so on, as you can see here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdF7rhKdX6Q&t=7s
Here is the new Istanbul Airport:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKd1DxLXpcU
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:12 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
With Oman essentially becoming #4 in the ME3, Turkey's growth prospects are not looking good, especially with the European sentiments about the ME and migrants right now. That's even before we get to Erdogan and the deflating economy there.


Oman is not a threat to Turkish Airlines. It is a niche airline that has decided to specialise in traffic to secondary cities in India, given its proximity to that country (which is just 2-3 hours away). Oman already has to compete with Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, Gulf Air, Kuwait Airways, Saudi Arabian and Turkish on Europe-Asia flights so it is going to stay in its lane and not try to take over the world.
 
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:13 pm

peterinlisbon wrote:
For example, if the Iran/Saudi dispute gets serious, Qatar/Emirates/Etihad and Gulf Air will all suddenly find themselves in the middle of a war zone. Saudi Arabia is blockading Qatar and Iran could blockade and deny overflight to all of these countries, but Turkey has a relatively good relationship with Iran. Strategically Turkey is right at the crossroads between Asia and Europe.


If the dispute gets serious, i doubt any airline will overfly the Gulf. Most probably the Europe-Subcontinet/SE Asia routing will become an EL AL- type-path going as far south as Djibouti and then turning.
Let's hope this scenario never becomes reality.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:18 pm

What about longer legged planes ? Why would I want to connect in Turkey if there are more and more non-stop options available ?
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incitatus
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:30 pm

The only way that old IST contrainted TK is that TK could not lose as much money as it would have liked.
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vahancrazy
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:31 pm

Aesma wrote:
What about longer legged planes ? Why would I want to connect in Turkey if there are more and more non-stop options available ?


Because this is a.net and there are two popular myths:
- n/b only for flights under 3h
- better one stop the long flights

;)
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:33 pm

Aesma wrote:
What about longer legged planes ? Why would I want to connect in Turkey if there are more and more non-stop options available ?


That's the other piece of the puzzle. Emirates' A380s are starting to get tough to fill thanks to the A350 and 787. Istanbul may be a big port and land trade center, but its local economy is not in great shape and Erdogan is not making it a friendly place to be, so there's no reason to arrive there unless you live there or already have business contacts there. Leisure/vacation travel is all that'll drive that airport for a while, and if Erdogan goes full-bore crazy, even that will go up in smoke.
Last edited by patrickjp93 on Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:35 pm

vahancrazy wrote:
Aesma wrote:
What about longer legged planes ? Why would I want to connect in Turkey if there are more and more non-stop options available ?


Because this is a.net and there are two popular myths:
- n/b only for flights under 3h
- better one stop the long flights

;)

I know for my OWN comfort I'd rather stop after 14 hours unless I get an empty economy row or PE seat, but given Qantas had one nutcase manage to sit 17 hours and 5 minutes without so much as using the restroom proves beyond a doubt you really can pack sardines and fly them anywhere...
 
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:44 pm

incitatus wrote:
The only way that old IST contrainted TK is that TK could not lose as much money as it would have liked.


:shakehead: :shakehead:

Guess you don't realize TK is a profitable enterprise - some times quite spectacularly profitable.

Since 2004 its been profitable 12 out of 15 years - a record many European or U.S airline have not been able to achieve.

TK has quite smartly navigated the market place and grown to become a successful global player
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Jetty
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:59 pm

mercure1 wrote:
incitatus wrote:
The only way that old IST contrainted TK is that TK could not lose as much money as it would have liked.


:shakehead: :shakehead:

Guess you don't realize TK is a profitable enterprise - some times quite spectacularly profitable.

Since 2004 its been profitable 12 out of 15 years - a record many European or U.S airline have not been able to achieve.

TK has quite smartly navigated the market place and grown to become a successful global player

Which reporting standards do you use to come to that conclusion? Erdogan ones? :?

Turkish Airlines also said last year’s profit of 4.04 billion liras for 2018, compiled by accounting firm KPMG, turned into a loss of 8.1 billion liras when taking into consideration differences between Turkish and international reporting standards and reporting for tax purposes.

Adding to the figure were accumulated losses of 10.1 billion liras from previous years, meaning that the company does not have the resources to pay shareholders a dividend for 2018, it said.

https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-airlines/ ... d-withheld
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:15 pm

Short term. No
Long term: Absolutely

IST has a better geographic position than any other airport in the world. There is no other airport on earth that has the reach of IST. Even SYD is not out of reach for the next gen 777X and A350. There is almost no airport in the world that cannot be reached with a nonstop flight from IST. Try to think about that for a second and see if you can wrap your head around how crazy that is. It has virtually unlimited growth both in its reach and in capacity. TK is already flying to numerous destinations in South America and Africa that no one else flies to on top of their existing dominance of the Middle East and European market and that on top of Asia and America. I would say in around 2 decades, they would either be very close to #1 or would have become #1. ATL is insanely busy by any metric but has nowhere near the growth ability nor the reach that IST has now.
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HP69
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:18 pm

It definitely will be the busiest in the next 5 years.
 
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:28 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
[...]local economy is not in great shape [...]


You put it very mildly, since Turkey has a chronic foreign trade deficit. That is why they will do their utmost to grab as much international traffic as possible, whatever it may cost.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:32 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
Short term. No
Long term: Absolutely

IST has a better geographic position than any other airport in the world. There is no other airport on earth that has the reach of IST. Even SYD is not out of reach for the next gen 777X and A350. There is almost no airport in the world that cannot be reached with a nonstop flight from IST. Try to think about that for a second and see if you can wrap your head around how crazy that is. It has virtually unlimited growth both in its reach and in capacity. TK is already flying to numerous destinations in South America and Africa that no one else flies to on top of their existing dominance of the Middle East and European market and that on top of Asia and America. I would say in around 2 decades, they would either be very close to #1 or would have become #1. ATL is insanely busy by any metric but has nowhere near the growth ability nor the reach that IST has now.

You can already reach every other city in the world directly from Singapore, Kael, Dubai, and Hong Kong. There are not many routes above 17,500km, most notably Auckland-London and Perth-NYC. Unless you mean using a 787-9, I'm not really sure what you're trying to say.
 
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:12 pm

LAXintl wrote:
There should be plenty of growth for the sheer fact that the center of gravity of global air traffic demand is moving eastward and Istanbul is very well placed to connect it along with the IATA prediction that air travel demand will double by 2037. Also, keep in mind Turkey today is already a large aviation market itself with 210mil+ annually travelers with Istanbul itself being is over 100mil of that.

Agreed. The other airport of Istanbul absorbed growth the last few years. Now the new Istanbul will grow.

I'm amazed at the other posts missing out that the old IST maxed out. Geez, how many taxiway collisions were there?

I'm amazed that the fast growth of the city's second airport was ignored too.

World's largest? Maybe. Once the 3rd runway is going, being in the top 5 is a given.

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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:51 pm

HP69 wrote:
It definitely will be the busiest in the next 5 years.


"Definitely," huh?

MANMatthew wrote:
Short answer: no.
Long answer: noooooooooo.


(My apologies; should have changed the topic as the old IST is closed).

Still: Despite its advantageous geographic location, I highly doubt it will overcome ATL in the future. I think its crown is there to stay for quite awhile. Perhaps others will sporadically top it, but once the Master Plan is finished and that 6th runway comes online, more gates, more carriers, more domestic traffic -- ATL will regain it back.

Indeed, they have a crazy Hype-Machine about the new IST. I read in two separate articles that ultimately, the airport will have 10 runways (?!)
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. Unfortunately, we're grounded :(
 
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:59 pm

Think its quite safe to say it become one of the worlds top transport hubs.

As others posted Istanbul already is a market over 100mil annual pax, with lots of upside growth potential when combined with the very smart expansion TK has produced over the last two decades.

And as far as TK, its indeed been a solidly profitable airline over the years including 3 of last 4 years. For 2019 analyst expect it post nice profit again. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/THYAO.IS/
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flyingfool
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:13 pm

rjsampson wrote:
especially as an almost purely international hub, with comparatively minimal domestic flights? I'm highly skeptical.

Thoughts?



You're talking about IST airport?
In that case you can't call 46 domestic destinations with hundreds and hundreds of weekly flights, many operated with widebody aircraft really "minimal".
 
SteelChair
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:18 pm

No. Not a chance. If they get to half that number, they'll be doing well imo.
 
ewt340
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:56 am

No. They are banking on Turkish to grow as big as Emirates which are possible. But even Emirates at its largest doesn't even reach 100 millions. And now they are shrinking.

I doubt Turkish could reach 200 millions at all.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:04 am

I don't think it will be a mega hub of 200 million any time soon, but it does stand a decent chance of taking on more growth as Turkish Airlines continues to expand. IST makes as good a transition point as the ME3 for most connnections in Europe/Africa/Asia.
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DTVG
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:01 am

Istanbul, just like similar projects around the world, is a classical case where (quasi-) government entities push their agenda by inflating numbers. Throw in some good old nationalism, where one gets constantly reminded about how great the nation is, because it built a huge airport
In other words: Yes Istanbul will grow, but that doesn't mean those amazing projections will be true.
 
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c933103
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:10 am

In contrast, the following Chinese airports/cities have laid out the following passenger flow forecast for year ~2035-2040:
Shanghai (All): 290 Million
Beijing (All): 235 Million
Shanghai Pudong: 160 Million
Chengdu (All): 160 Million
Guangzhou (All): 100 Million
Beijing Daxing: 100 Million
Xi'an: 100 Million
Hangzhou: 90 Million
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DTVG
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:13 am

Jetty wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
incitatus wrote:
The only way that old IST contrainted TK is that TK could not lose as much money as it would have liked.


:shakehead: :shakehead:

Guess you don't realize TK is a profitable enterprise - some times quite spectacularly profitable.

Since 2004 its been profitable 12 out of 15 years - a record many European or U.S airline have not been able to achieve.

TK has quite smartly navigated the market place and grown to become a successful global player

Which reporting standards do you use to come to that conclusion? Erdogan ones? :?

Turkish Airlines also said last year’s profit of 4.04 billion liras for 2018, compiled by accounting firm KPMG, turned into a loss of 8.1 billion liras when taking into consideration differences between Turkish and international reporting standards and reporting for tax purposes.

Adding to the figure were accumulated losses of 10.1 billion liras from previous years, meaning that the company does not have the resources to pay shareholders a dividend for 2018, it said.

https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-airlines/ ... d-withheld


This is something very important. First of all domestic and international accounting standards differ. Second of all even when using international accounting standards, a local interpretation may be applied. Valuing real estate under IFRS for example, is a classical case where countries use different methodologies. It should also be considered that local interpretations of international standards can be skewed in favor of business or government.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:33 am

Istanbul Ataturk is closed. You mean the new Istanbul airport.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:44 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
With Oman essentially becoming #4 in the ME3, Turkey's growth prospects are not looking good, especially with the European sentiments about the ME and migrants right now. That's even before we get to Erdogan and the deflating economy there.


Oman is not a threat to the ME3. Also you are grossly exaggerating the situation of Turkey. It's not perfect but its doing alright and its lightyears ahead of anywhere else in the Middle East and the economy has begun to recover some of its losses. Europeans have no one to blame for the migrant crisis except themselves for doing absolutely nothing to improve the situation by ignoring Syria/Palestine until they were forced to deal with it.

YangFeng wrote:
Istanbul Atatürk closed earlier this year, so no. The new IST I believe might have a shot at becoming the world's busiest airport. Not saying it will, but it definitely has a shot. Both TK and IST are significant and will become even more significant over time, with Turkey as a large home market and directly competing with the ME3 for transit pax. My best guess is about 130-140M pax at IST in 2030.


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

mercure1 wrote:
The new airport was desperately needed. IST/Ataturk was operating way above its design limits.

Whether traffic doubles or not in 10-years is probably not the point, but regardless Turkey has one of the largest home aviation markets unlike ME3 which will provide significant traffic base. Today only 1/3 of of TK passengers are international connections, and TK has stated is seeks to grow this to 1 in 2, which if everything else remains the same means an additional nearly 20 mil pax more at new IST alone.


I totally agree, I see a lot of flawed comparisons especially on A.net that try to compare the markets of the ME3 and TK, but TK is really a local airline with a big network, not the other way around. EK and QR can't tap into a huge local market while TK can.

adamh8297 wrote:
I thought their geographical position allows for use of narrowbodies to start and eventually grow smaller markets.


QR to some extent leverages this as well but QR doesn't have the benefit of being close to Europe as Turkey so TK definitely has a major advantage in that regard. TK can pretty much fly anywhere they want in Europe without profitability being an issue as its not hard to fill a narrow body. Meanwhile the Qatar blockade has made QR's A321's much less useful.

peterinlisbon wrote:
For example, if the Iran/Saudi dispute gets serious, Qatar/Emirates/Etihad and Gulf Air will all suddenly find themselves in the middle of a war zone. Saudi Arabia is blockading Qatar and Iran could blockade and deny overflight to all of these countries, but Turkey has a relatively good relationship with Iran. Strategically Turkey is right at the crossroads between Asia and Europe.


Yeah it never ceases to amaze me how some of the most aggressive countries against Iran like the UAE are the ones that stand to lose the most if they piss Iran off and get banned from Iranian airspace. Suffice to say this is basically a non-issue for TK.

mercure1 wrote:
Guess you don't realize TK is a profitable enterprise - some times quite spectacularly profitable.

Since 2004 its been profitable 12 out of 15 years - a record many European or U.S airline have not been able to achieve.

TK has quite smartly navigated the market place and grown to become a successful global player


TK is a well managed airline so this doesn't surprise me.

HP69 wrote:
It definitely will be the busiest in the next 5 years.


I think some Chinese airport will beat ATL at some point for first, but I also think IST will push ATL to third place. When, I don't know.

patrickjp93 wrote:
You can already reach every other city in the world directly from Singapore, Kael, Dubai, and Hong Kong. There are not many routes above 17,500km, most notably Auckland-London and Perth-NYC. Unless you mean using a 787-9, I'm not really sure what you're trying to say.


None of those cities besides Dubai could be remotely considered an east-west connector which is kind of important for a global transport hub.

rjsampson wrote:
Still: Despite its advantageous geographic location, I highly doubt it will overcome ATL in the future. I think its crown is there to stay for quite awhile. Perhaps others will sporadically top it, but once the Master Plan is finished and that 6th runway comes online, more gates, more carriers, more domestic traffic -- ATL will regain it back.


I doubt that considering any amount of ATL expansion is peanuts compared to IST's expansion ability. It's hard to get a sense for how big it actually is until you see it for the first time.

ewt340 wrote:
No. They are banking on Turkish to grow as big as Emirates which are possible. But even Emirates at its largest doesn't even reach 100 millions. And now they are shrinking.


I agree 200M is a pipe dream. But EK doesn't have a local market while Turkey being a huge country does. It's not that far fetched to say that TK could reach 100M if they could supplement their connections operation with a fast growing local market.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

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FatCat
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:53 am

No really no
The new Peking airport will become the World's busiest airport, maybe
But huge US hubs will always be the benchmark, surclassing ATL or ORD or LAX... pretty difficult
Aeroplane flies high
Turns left, looks right
 
Blerg
Posts: 4267
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:57 am

IST will keep on growing but I highly doubt it will become the largest in the world. First of all, Pegasus and SAW will be the first hurdle they need to overcome, especially now when the new IST is located in the middle of nowhere, making it much less accessible for anyone living on the Asian side of the city. They probably lost a huge chunk of O&D traffic right there.

Second of all, sure there are the Middle Eastern carriers but equally so we have airlines like Finnair, Aeroflot, Ukraine International, LOT... who are all trying to get the same passengers as TK and other Middle Eastern airlines. It's not as if they will hand over their marketshare on a silver platter so that IST can become number one.

Even in the Middle East, it's not just Oman Air, there is now Saudia which is trying to build its own hub in the region. The area is becoming increasingly crowded. Then on top of that, what will happen if sanctions against Iran are lifted and their airlines start to modernize? Iran's geographical location is pretty good too.

No doubt that TK and IST will remain important players in the future but somehow I have a hard time believing they will overtake future Chinese or Indian airports. Just look at the growth in India, it's out of this world. DEL alone grew by 10% last year to 69.9 million!
 
chidino
Posts: 212
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:05 am

Two problems:

1. Everything in IST was done on borrowed money. If economies stay healthy, great. Otherwise...

2. Once aircraft can fly Europe-Asia without stopovers, the ME3 and TK become... airlines.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1837
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:56 am

chidino wrote:
Two problems:

1. Everything in IST was done on borrowed money. If economies stay healthy, great. Otherwise...

2. Once aircraft can fly Europe-Asia without stopovers, the ME3 and TK become... airlines.


1. It doesn't matter if IST was built with borrowed money. The government is not going to let the airport, which is one of its flagship projects, go down. It's a matter of national pride, which actually means something in Turkey.

2. Aircraft can already fly Europe-Asia without stopovers. They've been able to do that for about 50 years.
 
Blerg
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:59 am

peterinlisbon wrote:
chidino wrote:
Two problems:

1. Everything in IST was done on borrowed money. If economies stay healthy, great. Otherwise...

2. Once aircraft can fly Europe-Asia without stopovers, the ME3 and TK become... airlines.


1. It doesn't matter if IST was built with borrowed money. The government is not going to let the airport, which is one of its flagship projects, go down. It's a matter of national pride, which actually means something in Turkey.

2. Aircraft can already fly Europe-Asia without stopovers. They've been able to do that for about 50 years.


The CURRENT government might not allow the airport to fail but we don't know what will happen if Erdogan loses some future elections like he lost Istanbul. Furthermore, IST will grow as long as TK is growing, that's what will fuel future growth, not the airport itself.
 
peterinlisbon
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Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:13 am

Blerg wrote:
IST will keep on growing but I highly doubt it will become the largest in the world. First of all, Pegasus and SAW will be the first hurdle they need to overcome, especially now when the new IST is located in the middle of nowhere, making it much less accessible for anyone living on the Asian side of the city. They probably lost a huge chunk of O&D traffic right there.

Second of all, sure there are the Middle Eastern carriers but equally so we have airlines like Finnair, Aeroflot, Ukraine International, LOT... who are all trying to get the same passengers as TK and other Middle Eastern airlines. It's not as if they will hand over their marketshare on a silver platter so that IST can become number one!


IST is relatively far from the city centre compared to Ataturk but it is very well connected. I live on the Asian side of Istanbul (so relatively far away) but I can get there in under an hour by bus and there is an airport bus that stops right in front of my house that gets there in about the same time. It's actually easier to get to than Ataturk Airport from a lot of places because of the direct bus connections. From places like the financial district in Levent you can drive to the new airport in 30 minutes. In general you're looking at a journey time of about 1 hour and a cost of under 3-5$ in this city of 20 million people. So hardly the "middle of nowhere." They are also building a special high-speed metro line.

Regarding competition, it's true that there are lots of airlines in Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Asia that compete with TK. However, this is not a new thing. Turkish Airlines has expanded alongside all of these other airlines - it's not as if they suddenly appeared on the scene last week. In fact, some of those competitors are losing money and may have to reduce their operations. In short, I think there are factors that could lead to Istanbul becoming the biggest airport in the world. It is certainly possible because the potential is there, although it is not guaranteed by any means.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1837
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:23 am

Blerg wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:
chidino wrote:
Two problems:

1. Everything in IST was done on borrowed money. If economies stay healthy, great. Otherwise...

2. Once aircraft can fly Europe-Asia without stopovers, the ME3 and TK become... airlines.


1. It doesn't matter if IST was built with borrowed money. The government is not going to let the airport, which is one of its flagship projects, go down. It's a matter of national pride, which actually means something in Turkey.

2. Aircraft can already fly Europe-Asia without stopovers. They've been able to do that for about 50 years.


The CURRENT government might not allow the airport to fail but we don't know what will happen if Erdogan loses some future elections like he lost Istanbul. Furthermore, IST will grow as long as TK is growing, that's what will fuel future growth, not the airport itself.


No Turkish government is ever going to allow IST airport to fail. It would be political suicide to allow such a thing to happen. TK is the main airline there of course but it is far from the only one and now that the bottleneck of limited capacity has been removed other airlines have the opportunity to increase their services.
 
Blerg
Posts: 4267
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:38 am

peterinlisbon wrote:
Blerg wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:

1. It doesn't matter if IST was built with borrowed money. The government is not going to let the airport, which is one of its flagship projects, go down. It's a matter of national pride, which actually means something in Turkey.

2. Aircraft can already fly Europe-Asia without stopovers. They've been able to do that for about 50 years.


The CURRENT government might not allow the airport to fail but we don't know what will happen if Erdogan loses some future elections like he lost Istanbul. Furthermore, IST will grow as long as TK is growing, that's what will fuel future growth, not the airport itself.


No Turkish government is ever going to allow IST airport to fail. It would be political suicide to allow such a thing to happen. TK is the main airline there of course but it is far from the only one and now that the bottleneck of limited capacity has been removed other airlines have the opportunity to increase their services.


But you are the one who started talking about IST failing, no one has done that until now. Matter of fact is that we are discussing whether IST will be number one airport at some point. There isn't much any Turkish government can do besides throw more money at both TK and IST hoping they will manage to attract customers. At the end of the day IST's future as a global hub will exclusively depend on TK.

Furthermore, many airlines have left the old IST not because of capacity restraints but rather because they couldn't compete with TK. I am especially referring to Austrian Airlines and Swiss.
 
CHRISBA35X
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 am

Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:52 am

I hope not. IST is a chaotic and very stressful airport to fly through. I've never had a good flight/experience with TK in over a dozen flights with them and will go out of my way to avoid IST if at all possible. Its unbelievably crowded, messy, poorly laid out and way way way over capacity. Sahiba Gockcen isn't much better. The new airport was sorely needed. I'm not going to Istanbul again until the new airport is fully online - hopefully it is a major improvement.
 
User avatar
Mystic
Posts: 118
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:40 pm

Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:07 am

CHRISBA35X wrote:
I hope not. IST is a chaotic and very stressful airport to fly through. I've never had a good flight/experience with TK in over a dozen flights with them and will go out of my way to avoid IST if at all possible. Its unbelievably crowded, messy, poorly laid out and way way way over capacity. Sahiba Gockcen isn't much better. The new airport was sorely needed. I'm not going to Istanbul again until the new airport is fully online - hopefully it is a major improvement.


The new airport has been "online" for the past 6 months.
 
CHRISBA35X
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 am

Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:35 am

Mystic wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
I hope not. IST is a chaotic and very stressful airport to fly through. I've never had a good flight/experience with TK in over a dozen flights with them and will go out of my way to avoid IST if at all possible. Its unbelievably crowded, messy, poorly laid out and way way way over capacity. Sahiba Gockcen isn't much better. The new airport was sorely needed. I'm not going to Istanbul again until the new airport is fully online - hopefully it is a major improvement.


The new airport has been "online" for the past 6 months.


Yes but everyt time i need to fly to certain places, IE: Odessa, the flights go via Ataturk.
 
User avatar
TK787
Posts: 4566
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2006 3:43 am

Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:14 am

CHRISBA35X wrote:

Yes but everyt time i need to fly to certain places, IE: Odessa, the flights go via Ataturk.

Ataturk airport has been closed to pax traffic since April. There is a new airport in town :)
What you refer to as Ataturk is now ISL; still serving Cargo and Business jets, the new airport got the old code, IST.
Do a search online and maybe watch some youtube videos by Sam Chui.
Bon Voyage.
 
CHRISBA35X
Posts: 200
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 am

Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:32 am

TK787 wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:

Yes but everyt time i need to fly to certain places, IE: Odessa, the flights go via Ataturk.

Ataturk airport has been closed to pax traffic since April. There is a new airport in town :)
What you refer to as Ataturk is now ISL; still serving Cargo and Business jets, the new airport got the old code, IST.
Do a search online and maybe watch some youtube videos by Sam Chui.
Bon Voyage.


April. That was the last time i flew to Odessa. Makes sense.

Hopefully the new IST will be a nicer passenger experience.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10197
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:59 am

It has the potential to be the world's largest but a few things have to line up correctly for it to happen. First and foremost TK needs a lot more frequencies to India. That alone is the difference between TK and the ME3. It needs efficient and fast transportation links to the city in order for it to become a viable alternative to SAW for domestic travel.

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