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AirAY
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:35 pm

Maybe not the biggest but one of the busiest.

And don‘t forget Istanbul Atatürk Airport is now ISL.
IST is Istanbul Airport, the new one and Former IGA (Project)
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:57 pm

AirAY wrote:
Maybe not the biggest but one of the busiest.

And don‘t forget Istanbul Atatürk Airport is now ISL.
IST is Istanbul Airport, the new one and Former IGA (Project)

IST really needs the 3rd operational runways. Currently, too many gates are too long a taxi for great economics. The new runway is projected to cut taxi times 50% as well as provide better slot times (more efficient hub banks):

https://igairport.com/en/press-releases ... full-force

Only with that runway will we see IST (new airport) growing into its potential.

I agree maybe not #1, but certainly in the top 5 by 2024:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... er_traffic

This year's stats will be confusing due to the April transfer.

Old IST 2018:. 68.19 million pax. Growing a mere 10% puts IST in 8th place. The old airport was so overcrowded, it pushed growth to SAW. Now that growth returns. 20% growth to #6. 30% growth takes IST to #4.

It will take almost 60% growth to become #1, I do not see that at the current build phase. But add more terminal space and a runway and it is possible.

The EU has capped airport capacity at too many hubs. That means that hubbing must be exported to new airports. IST us well located for SE Asia. SVO for North Asia, BOS/PHL/CLT/IAD for North America... Air travel grows, IST is well positioned to absorb that growth.

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jsfr
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:54 pm

The potential is definitely there as Istanbul has a great location flying anywhere East and/or South.

TK has been very succesful as the airlines serving the most destinations which (at least for me) has made them one of the best choices when flying to some weird destinations that have few direct flights anywhere especially in former CIS or odd African countries. I also occasionally see TK come up with some pretty interesting cheap flights to some poular leisure destinations that I am interesetd in, and yes, if I have to add two hours to a trip and save 200 Euros per pax, then on Leisure I will definitely do it...

As well TK is a good airline in ECO and Business...

What will hold them back is their strategy of wanting to be the biggest and the best alone. IST is a good TK hub, but could be an absolutely awesome Star Alliance Hub.

When searching for EU-Asia-Australia flights I get hundreds of options via FRA/MUC/ZRH with mixing and matching of LH/LX/SQ/TG/OZ/NH... and one option via IST with TK/TK...

If TK can get some asian heavies coming very regularly with connecting and code share traffic onto their extensive European/African network (to those rarer destinations) - then IST passenger count will explode.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:13 pm

jsfr wrote:
The potential is definitely there as Istanbul has a great location flying anywhere East and/or South.

TK has been very succesful as the airlines serving the most destinations which (at least for me) has made them one of the best choices when flying to some weird destinations that have few direct flights anywhere especially in former CIS or odd African countries. I also occasionally see TK come up with some pretty interesting cheap flights to some poular leisure destinations that I am interesetd in, and yes, if I have to add two hours to a trip and save 200 Euros per pax, then on Leisure I will definitely do it...

As well TK is a good airline in ECO and Business...

What will hold them back is their strategy of wanting to be the biggest and the best alone. IST is a good TK hub, but could be an absolutely awesome Star Alliance Hub.

When searching for EU-Asia-Australia flights I get hundreds of options via FRA/MUC/ZRH with mixing and matching of LH/LX/SQ/TG/OZ/NH... and one option via IST with TK/TK...

If TK can get some asian heavies coming very regularly with connecting and code share traffic onto their extensive European/African network (to those rarer destinations) - then IST passenger count will explode.

I agree TK needs Asian and Osceana partners. Ideally *A flying to IST. ANZ, Air China, and Thai would all be excellent partners if TK plays well with others. India is unlikely to be *A but rather Indigo.

Delta has shown JVs or one on one alliances are most profitable. Anything could happen.
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B777LRF
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:23 pm

No, never.

Turkey is balancing on a knife edge of a declining economy, rapidly increasing inflation, political volatility including the ever present prospect of terrorism, and an ever deteriorating image brought about by the autocratic leadership personified in Erdogan (the person who said democracy is like a bus, when you get to your intended destination you get off).

And then there's the geological issues of being placed right on the fault line between the European and Asian continents. They had a small tremor the other day, one day the 'big one' will come and that'll have an enormous impact.

It would take a massive political upheaval in order to balance both the political landscape (e.g. get the AKP ousted from power) and the economy, and until such time that happens Turkey and, indeed, IST and TK will have a dark cloud hanging over them.
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EBiafore99
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:50 pm

I don't think location is the most significant factor in determining whether or not IST can become the world's busiest airport. IMO, the biggest factor is the future geo-political situation in either Turkey or the Middle East. Istanbul is a great transfer hub between the continents, no doubt. However, that makes no difference if customers feel Turkey is unsafe to fly to or through.
 
THY748i
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:07 pm

Let‘s wait and see, numbers will speak for themselves.

The whole „biggest airport in the world“ shouldn‘t be taken too seriously as everyone‘s building the best and biggest airport right now lol. It‘s marketing, plus I believe Bejing‘s new airport, as well as other Chinese airport projects are being planned to be considerably larger than IST.

About Turkey‘s leadership as vile (and especially recently rather breakneck) as it may be, it‘s actually snowflakes compared to GCC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. I can see how „westerners“ expect more from Turkey as it is an ally and part of many european institutions. Other than that many popular destinations and transportation hubs aren‘t exactly embedded in a very democratic context. So I think it‘s more important for Turkey to play along and stay stable rather than democratizing itself (which would be nice of course).

Then, there are other interlinked factors such as the big earthquake when it happens, long term economical growth, inflation rates etc.

It may be (and has been speculated about in the dedicated Turkish Aviation thread) reasonable to not build the airport to the maximum planned capacity. Does anyone know if this would bear implications for the state (i.e. the tax payer)?
 
Turkish350XWB
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:24 pm

World's busiest --> Very difficult
Near future --> No

Realistic:
- Busiest in Europe
- 100m pax in 2030 --> Top 5 worldwide (with ATL, DXB, PVG, PEK/PDX)
 
DWC
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:56 pm

new IST has teething problems, way too big, no airside or landside train running along the HUGE terminal.
Pax are complaining, enough are missing their tight connections ( those under the hour ) just because walking lengths are worse than say at Barajas MAD for those who know.
Meaning that frequent passengers are starting to avoid IST altogether, which cannot help the aim of getting at 200 Million.
That said, IST is very well located, most people don't know about IST current scale, and with civil aviation doubling every 15 years, there is no reason they won't get to 200 Million before the century is out.
 
ewt340
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:57 am

One of their geographical problems gonna be traffic from Asia/Oceania to Africa. Because Istanbul is located in the Northwest part of the middle east, it would mean that passengers need to travel more distance compared to if they transit through ME3 hub.

The same with Africa to Europe. Because of Istanbul location, it wouldn't really be suitable for the north-south bound traffic from Europe to Africa.

This is probably one of their biggest problem.

If you think about it. Their geographical advantages would only be beneficial for flights between Europe, Oceania and Asia. They can't really capture the African market like ME3 did.
 
YYZflyboy
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sat Sep 28, 2019 4:27 am

You forgot that SQ flies to IST!

lightsaber wrote:
jsfr wrote:
The potential is definitely there as Istanbul has a great location flying anywhere East and/or South.

TK has been very succesful as the airlines serving the most destinations which (at least for me) has made them one of the best choices when flying to some weird destinations that have few direct flights anywhere especially in former CIS or odd African countries. I also occasionally see TK come up with some pretty interesting cheap flights to some poular leisure destinations that I am interesetd in, and yes, if I have to add two hours to a trip and save 200 Euros per pax, then on Leisure I will definitely do it...

As well TK is a good airline in ECO and Business...

What will hold them back is their strategy of wanting to be the biggest and the best alone. IST is a good TK hub, but could be an absolutely awesome Star Alliance Hub.

When searching for EU-Asia-Australia flights I get hundreds of options via FRA/MUC/ZRH with mixing and matching of LH/LX/SQ/TG/OZ/NH... and one option via IST with TK/TK...

If TK can get some asian heavies coming very regularly with connecting and code share traffic onto their extensive European/African network (to those rarer destinations) - then IST passenger count will explode.

I agree TK needs Asian and Osceana partners. Ideally *A flying to IST. ANZ, Air China, and Thai would all be excellent partners if TK plays well with others. India is unlikely to be *A but rather Indigo.

Delta has shown JVs or one on one alliances are most profitable. Anything could happen.
 
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mafaky
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:17 am

Aesma wrote:
What about longer legged planes ? Why would I want to connect in Turkey if there are more and more non-stop options available ?


If you have the luxury for spending some more time and stretch your legs between your origin base and your final destination and if the ticket price you pay while transferring via IST will be 25-30% lower and if you know you will receive a better in-flight service, why shouldn't you??? I prefer to fly QR between Istanbul and Far East destinations, for the same reasons...
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
gokmengs
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:22 am

Could the mods change the title of this otherwise very decent thread? Very unfortunately the new airport’s name is not “ Ataturk” but Turkey’s gateway to the world will be named that in the future IMO me and my family it call it the “ the new Atatürk Airport”
Edit: thanks mods
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jsfr
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 4:47 pm

I didn’t forget, but they fly 5 times a week to IST with a 777-200 as opposed to 14 times a week to FRA with A380s and 777-300s and that is not all with Frankfurt residents.... I know from experience that those fights are not only full of transfer pax, but also a lot of those pax had to "backtrack" to get to Frankfurt - and I'm not counting Munich and Zurich and Vienna...

As sometime who travels to Istanbul (and other parts of turkey) monthly, I can assure you that the political situation is nowhere near as bad as some on this forum are trying to make it - it is much more of democracy than any of the other middle eastern countries and even somewhat more advanced in protecting human rights.

YYZflyboy wrote:
You forgot that SQ flies to IST!

lightsaber wrote:
jsfr wrote:
The potential is definitely there as Istanbul has a great location flying anywhere East and/or South.

TK has been very succesful as the airlines serving the most destinations which (at least for me) has made them one of the best choices when flying to some weird destinations that have few direct flights anywhere especially in former CIS or odd African countries. I also occasionally see TK come up with some pretty interesting cheap flights to some poular leisure destinations that I am interesetd in, and yes, if I have to add two hours to a trip and save 200 Euros per pax, then on Leisure I will definitely do it...

As well TK is a good airline in ECO and Business...

What will hold them back is their strategy of wanting to be the biggest and the best alone. IST is a good TK hub, but could be an absolutely awesome Star Alliance Hub.

When searching for EU-Asia-Australia flights I get hundreds of options via FRA/MUC/ZRH with mixing and matching of LH/LX/SQ/TG/OZ/NH... and one option via IST with TK/TK...

If TK can get some asian heavies coming very regularly with connecting and code share traffic onto their extensive European/African network (to those rarer destinations) - then IST passenger count will explode.

I agree TK needs Asian and Osceana partners. Ideally *A flying to IST. ANZ, Air China, and Thai would all be excellent partners if TK plays well with others. India is unlikely to be *A but rather Indigo.

Delta has shown JVs or one on one alliances are most profitable. Anything could happen.
 
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unrave
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:40 pm

Turkish350XWB wrote:
World's busiest --> Very difficult
Near future --> No

Realistic:
- Busiest in Europe
- 100m pax in 2030 --> Top 5 worldwide (with ATL, DXB, PVG, PEK/PDX)


By 2030 DEL, SIN and CGK will likely have gone past 100m
17April2019: RIP Jet Airways
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:48 pm

B777LRF wrote:
No, never.

Turkey is balancing on a knife edge of a declining economy, rapidly increasing inflation, political volatility including the ever present prospect of terrorism, and an ever deteriorating image brought about by the autocratic leadership personified in Erdogan (the person who said democracy is like a bus, when you get to your intended destination you get off).

And then there's the geological issues of being placed right on the fault line between the European and Asian continents. They had a small tremor the other day, one day the 'big one' will come and that'll have an enormous impact.

It would take a massive political upheaval in order to balance both the political landscape (e.g. get the AKP ousted from power) and the economy, and until such time that happens Turkey and, indeed, IST and TK will have a dark cloud hanging over them.


Disagree with literally everything you said in that post. It's pretty clear you've never been to Turkey.
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

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vadodara
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:59 pm

As one poster mentioned, Istanbul is competing with likes of MUC/ZRH to be the 'hub' for C. Europe. MUC by itself has tremendous O/D traffic that any other hub is unlikely to siphon off.

To become competitive in C/S Europe, it should have frequent flights to smaller markets such as Greece, Armenia, Bulgaria among others. Turkey's political problems with some of these countries are well known. Others such as Syria will not become stable markets for a while. Erdogan is not helping his own cause by picking fights with several countries.

Hopefully this does not get mismanaged a lot to become a white elephant.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:03 pm

unrave wrote:
Turkish350XWB wrote:
World's busiest --> Very difficult
Near future --> No

Realistic:
- Busiest in Europe
- 100m pax in 2030 --> Top 5 worldwide (with ATL, DXB, PVG, PEK/PDX)


By 2030 DEL, SIN and CGK will likely have gone past 100m

By 2030 the 100m club will be crowded.
ATL
PVG
PEK and Daxing (maybe, a huge market).
SIN
CGK
IST


I question if DEL has expanded enough to support 100m.

IST will be in that club.


LHR, easy, if there was a 3rd runway.

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DarthLobster
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:50 pm

Sure if you move it to Los Angeles.
 
Orlik
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:57 pm

c933103 wrote:
In contrast, the following Chinese airports/cities have laid out the following passenger flow forecast for year ~2035-2040:
Shanghai (All): 290 Million
Beijing (All): 235 Million
Shanghai Pudong: 160 Million
Chengdu (All): 160 Million
Guangzhou (All): 100 Million
Beijing Daxing: 100 Million
Xi'an: 100 Million
Hangzhou: 90 Million


Source ?. I have no doubts about growth in China, but there are some ?? here
Beijing 235 ALL -100 PKX means 135m for PEK (it suffers to handle 100m with three runways and there should be 35% more ?)
Why PEK increase by 135% and CAN just 50%, and why ALL (CAN itself has capacity for 100m)
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 9:04 pm

airbazar wrote:
It has the potential to be the world's largest but a few things have to line up correctly for it to happen. First and foremost TK needs a lot more frequencies to India. That alone is the difference between TK and the ME3. It needs efficient and fast transportation links to the city in order for it to become a viable alternative to SAW for domestic travel.


The transport links are pretty good. From where I live in Kadikoy on the Asian side it takes about the same time to get to Sabiha or the new airport (1 hour) by bus. There are about 20 different bus lines to places all over the city.

I don't know why TK is so weak in India. I think maybe they figured that the ME3 had that market all sewn up and the Gulf airlines have an advantage there as they are much closer to India. But maybe they need to rethink that. TK has a big advantage over the ME3 due to its position right on the southeastern corner of Europe. They also have a big advantage in that they have much less political risk.

Perhaps some of the predictions are a bit exaggerated. I don't think they'll reach 200 million in just 10 years - I think the current terminal can handle 90 million in theory and it currently handles about 60 million. If passenger numbers increase by 7% per year, compounded, that would be 118 million in 10 years.
 
audian
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 9:26 pm

IMO it really depends on Turkey's political stability.
 
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unrave
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:27 am

lightsaber wrote:
I question if DEL has expanded enough to support 100m.

DEL is currently building a new runway and expanding terminals. A new terminal will be built later.
17April2019: RIP Jet Airways
 
B777LRF
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:29 am

sonicruiser wrote:
Disagree with literally everything you said in that post. It's pretty clear you've never been to Turkey.


You mean, apart from having a Turkish wife and enough stamps from immigration in Atatürk to fill several pages in my passport? Anyway, you did make me chuckle over your disagreement of the geology of Turkey. I mean, we can all have our own opinions but some matters are not up for debate. Such as geology and, indeed, the state of the Turkish economy and rate of inflation. Those are facts my dear boy, whether you agree with them or not.

Are you Turkish by any chance?
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mafaky
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:36 am

If and when its 3rd rwy built, why not consider HKG in the 100m plus club, by 2030?

To come back to the actual subject of the (New) IST airport:

The dilemna about (New) IST is not when or how it will reach 100m pax traffic (or, whether or not, it will ever reach...), by 2030. I have made some projections of my own: these indicate by the end of 2029 or 2030 and at rather conservative rates of annual growth (**), the 100m mark can be reached. The present huge terminal plus the 3 rwys (the third rwy expected to be operational by mid 2020, or the latest be end 2020) will adequately cope with this traffic.

The actual (future) problem is that how fast can IST climb to 150m mark, after 2030 or when it may reach the final target of 200m?

You see, when the (New) IST started its full operations it was evident that it will inherit approx. 68m score of Ataturk. Therefore, they hd to build big terminal to serve up to 100m, which was both logical and essential... So one can make more-or-less scientific calculations/predictions as when the 100m mark can be reached, say with a mismatch of plus/minus one year. But once the 100m mark be reached/surpassed the 2nd Terminal and the 4th rwy should be operational. As for this 4th rwy: should be the only east/west rwy as already been indicated on future development plans) or should it be the 4th north/south rwy? Both will require a good deal of earth flattening and rehabilitation...

But the bigger problem lies in the 2nd terminal. Although it is not publicly declared, this is going to be a replica (at least, in outer dimensions and general architecture) of the present first terminal. So it will boast an overall capacity of the second 100m traffic. But this second 100m capacity will
not be needed in full, right away... I cannot predict how "modular" the second terminal can be built and/or operated...

Once built, I predict that the entire west wing of the second terminal will be dedicated to domestic operations (TK and others). This will mean that a 25-28m capacity will be relieved from the first terminal, when domestic ops will be switched to the second terminal, say by 2030. This will leave the present terminal dedicated only for international operations (and yes, there will be an APM between the two terminals on the airside...). Naturally, some time like minimum 6 months will be needed to refurbish the first terminal to accomodate that all-international traffic. However, TK has been long holding a dream to have its own dedicated terminal (maybe, maybe sharing it with the *A members), but this cannot be realised for a while. The other non-Turkish (and non *A) airlines will not be pushed into the second terminal if it's going to be partly operational (with a question mark as "how, physically") with domestic ops.

Another problem will be regarding the APM system. The APM stations will be located underground at the entry of Pier D (the middle pier on the airside) in each terminal. The airside is almost 900 mt. long, so these APM stations will be exactly in the middle of that rather long distance. The pax who will use the APM between the two terminals - which will be around 1.750-2.000 mt. apart between their mid points (i.e. roughly the same distance between the APM stations) will still have to cover long distances inside both terminals on foot!... So transfer from domestic to international and vice versa (even not considering any baggage collection at IST) will probably need not less than 90 minutes, if not more -- when two terminals will be operational.

Not an easy equation, eh; when you look at in different aspects??? At one side you have the market factors, on another side you have the physical bottlenecks and yet at another side you (or IGA - the BOTS Consortium) will have the financial needs (and possible problems) for the development.

(**) Assumption: 3% consecutive and progressive growths in 2020-2021-2022, 4% in 2023-2024-2025, 5% in 2026-2027-2028, 6% in 2029-2030. By the end of 2029 you reach 103m, by the end of 2030, 109m.
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
gokmengs
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:06 am

B777LRF wrote:
No, never.

Turkey is balancing on a knife edge of a declining economy, rapidly increasing inflation, political volatility including the ever present prospect of terrorism, and an ever deteriorating image brought about by the autocratic leadership personified in Erdogan (the person who said democracy is like a bus, when you get to your intended destination you get off).

And then there's the geological issues of being placed right on the fault line between the European and Asian continents. They had a small tremor the other day, one day the 'big one' will come and that'll have an enormous impact.

It would take a massive political upheaval in order to balance both the political landscape (e.g. get the AKP ousted from power) and the economy, and until such time that happens Turkey and, indeed, IST and TK will have a dark cloud hanging over them.


I feel you are quite uninformed about Turkey and Turkish aviation, declining economy is the only fact in your post honestly, economy will hurt Turkish pax travel to a certain degree, but do you honestly think it makes the -just for example- persian and hasidic jewish crowd thats filling up the LAX-IST flight to the brim not choose IST to go to their destinations? Absolutely no.
One should look at the TK fleet in the future to clearly see where IST is going, I personally think 4+ new North American destinations to be launched in 12-18 months, as well as additional frequency to few current destinations that are seeing 80% plus LF's year round (LAX has been upped already for next summer)

Besides TK new addition of foreign airlines from Asia that has shown interest will add to the pax numbers of IST. The teething issues have been resolved the next big step is the runway which I expect to be operational in Q3 of 2020. Lets see if its prosperous times for IST or the doom and gloom you predict.
Yaşa Mustafa Kemal Paşa Yaşa, Adın Yazılacak Mücevher Taşa
 
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mafaky
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:40 am

Well, politics, geography, marketing factors at one side, but there's another very vital and decisive (and sometimes destructive) factor called "FINANCE".

Today some brief news have surfaced that IGA's CEO (Kadri Samsunlu) has been recently contacting some Sino-Chinese Group, most probably to secure some amount of finance for the upcoming phases. Now IGA may have understood that with all their projected income (based on highly prohibitive service fees, other fees and rental rates where many have already started complaining loudly - inc. TK) plus the annual "rent" they have to pay to the State, they will not be able to secure enough forthcoming income to cover their operational costs, the approaching credit back payments (5.5 billion €, the basic amount) and also spare/create budget for Phase 2/3/4 developments.

Sad and alarming news, if these are true. Looks like that the State can/will no longer back up IGA (due to several reasons...), IGA has no hope to obtain further credit from local or international banks so they are forced to move outside the standard/classical finance circles, for solutions. :shock: :?: :?:
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
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mafaky
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:45 am

@ peterinlisbon :

I don't know why TK is so weak in India. I think maybe they figured that the ME3 had that market all sewn up and the Gulf airlines have an advantage there as they are much closer to India.


Have you heard of anything like "bilaterals"? Turkish carriers are allowed to fly only daily to DElhi(DEL) and Mumbai (BOM) and that's it. ME3 are allowed to fly to multiple Indian cities even at multiple daily frequencies. :twisted: :x

So, it's not TK's reluctance or lack of attention!!!
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
AstanaMagic
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:27 pm

Having used the new airport recently, my first reaction is that transiting from one flight to another is absolutely awful. I made two separate trips in J from AGP-GYD-AGP and AGP-IST-AGP, will with TK.

Taxi times on the ground are up to 30 minutes from runway to gate, and despite quick transfer security on individual piers, on both trips, there is little assistance from TK. In both cases I missed my connections, and both connections. We’re from the Zone B to Zone F.

TK need to fix this, it does not give me confidence to use IST for these kind of trips.
2020: AGP, KSQ, LGW, LHR, MXP, SVQ, TAS, XRY, ZRH
A/C: 32B, 32S, 752, 763, E90
A/L: BA, HY, LX, 2L
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:24 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
I know for my OWN comfort I'd rather stop after 14 hours unless I get an empty economy row or PE seat, but given Qantas had one nutcase manage to sit 17 hours and 5 minutes without so much as using the restroom proves beyond a doubt you really can pack sardines and fly them anywhere...


I'm worried silly about DVT (the medical condition, not the Phoenix reliever airport!). I actually seek out connecting flights, even when more expensive than non-stop, in order to walk around an airport.
 
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c933103
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:56 pm

Orlik wrote:
c933103 wrote:
In contrast, the following Chinese airports/cities have laid out the following passenger flow forecast for year ~2035-2040:
Shanghai (All): 290 Million
Beijing (All): 235 Million
Shanghai Pudong: 160 Million
Chengdu (All): 160 Million
Guangzhou (All): 100 Million
Beijing Daxing: 100 Million
Xi'an: 100 Million
Hangzhou: 90 Million


Source ?. I have no doubts about growth in China, but there are some ?? here
Beijing 235 ALL -100 PKX means 135m for PEK (it suffers to handle 100m with three runways and there should be 35% more ?)
Why PEK increase by 135% and CAN just 50%, and why ALL (CAN itself has capacity for 100m)

They are all individual forecast made by local government or local airport management, so different forecast methods could lead to different expectations.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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musman9853
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
[

I'm amazed at the other posts missing out that the old IST maxed out. Geez, how many taxiway collisions were there?



about as many as there were 737 runway overruns :D
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patrickjp93
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:39 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
I know for my OWN comfort I'd rather stop after 14 hours unless I get an empty economy row or PE seat, but given Qantas had one nutcase manage to sit 17 hours and 5 minutes without so much as using the restroom proves beyond a doubt you really can pack sardines and fly them anywhere...


I'm worried silly about DVT (the medical condition, not the Phoenix reliever airport!). I actually seek out connecting flights, even when more expensive than non-stop, in order to walk around an airport.


Compression socks and wrapping the lower legs will sort that out. I'd still recommend getting up and walking around every couple hours except when sleeping though, and water, lots of water. Thinner blood = fewer clots.
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul Atatürk will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:33 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
I know for my OWN comfort I'd rather stop after 14 hours unless I get an empty economy row or PE seat, but given Qantas had one nutcase manage to sit 17 hours and 5 minutes without so much as using the restroom proves beyond a doubt you really can pack sardines and fly them anywhere...


I'm worried silly about DVT (the medical condition, not the Phoenix reliever airport!). I actually seek out connecting flights, even when more expensive than non-stop, in order to walk around an airport.


Compression socks and wrapping the lower legs will sort that out. I'd still recommend getting up and walking around every couple hours except when sleeping though, and water, lots of water. Thinner blood = fewer clots.


Thanks! I do have the compression socks and they're a Deity-send!
 
vadodara
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:42 pm

mafaky wrote:
Well, politics, geography, marketing factors at one side, but there's another very vital and decisive (and sometimes destructive) factor called "FINANCE".

Today some brief news have surfaced that IGA's CEO (Kadri Samsunlu) has been recently contacting some Sino-Chinese Group, most probably to secure some amount of finance for the upcoming phases. Now IGA may have understood that with all their projected income (based on highly prohibitive service fees, other fees and rental rates where many have already started complaining loudly - inc. TK) plus the annual "rent" they have to pay to the State, they will not be able to secure enough forthcoming income to cover their operational costs, the approaching credit back payments (5.5 billion €, the basic amount) and also spare/create budget for Phase 2/3/4 developments.

Sad and alarming news, if these are true. Looks like that the State can/will no longer back up IGA (due to several reasons...), IGA has no hope to obtain further credit from local or international banks so they are forced to move outside the standard/classical finance circles, for solutions. :shock: :?: :?:


One Belt - One Road paradigm could now be extended to One Runway!
 
Stickpusher
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Re: Does anyone REALLY think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:46 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
I'd still recommend getting up and walking around every couple hours except when sleeping though, and water, lots of water. Thinner blood = fewer clots.


Or aspirin, which does the same provided you aren't at risk of brain/stomach bleeds. It's recommended for people with existing heart conditions because it interferes with the clotting mechanism and acts quite quickly. Caveat: I'm no medical authority! :)

+++

A propos of comments about TK becoming another Emirates, it might be significant that when Emirates came along there were no other Emirates's around to compete against, and while Istanbul avoids a significant southern detour for some routes making TK a better option, there is now a big player fairly close by with a lot of local clout. Doesn't seem to be doing TK much harm presently, but it might set a cap on how far TK will be able to go. If Iran comes back into the fold and is allowed to fulfil its own potential then the situation will change yet again.

As a hypothetical exercise, it'd be interesting to see Emirates' response to an approach by TK to lease/buy A380s that are being retired - not that it would happen.

As for ATL, it'd lose its placing only if a second airport of similar size were to be built for the city. This is the reason it stays where it is, it's a centralised bottleneck, an artificial constraint. London is the busiest centre for air traffic but that traffic is dispersed around many airports, four of them being busy, and in China the same situation keeps per-airport traffic down at lower levels. You'd expect Dubai to drop many places if DWC operated full-on, unless like London, Beijing, Shanghai, LA, Paris, Tokyo and New York you treated Dubai as the destination rather than any single airport serving it.

In 2018 Atlanta was ranked 8th globally for pax passing through its one airport - still impressive though.
 
mutu
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:46 pm

Turkish350XWB wrote:
World's busiest --> Very difficult
Near future --> No

Realistic:
- Busiest in Europe
- 100m pax in 2030 --> Top 5 worldwide (with ATL, DXB, PVG, PEK/PDX)


That's probably closer to the mark.

2 factors I believe will prohibit the title of "busiest": (1) The scale of the Chinese domestic market will dwarf others over time, as will growth in Chinese middle classes "exploring the world". (2) The environmental friendly agenda may develop dramatically with one of the first casualties being 1 stop routes via intermediate hubs, where non-stop is available. It is theoretically a "greener" way to get from A to B non stop.. And the number of non-stop point to points continues to grow with new frame technology.
 
Chrisba320
Posts: 41
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Re: Does anyone really think Istanbul will become the world's busiest in the near future?

Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:10 pm

It might or it might not..... I love traveling via Istanbul, it is easily one of my favorite cities to spend time in and I stay over on the way somewhere else most of the time. As others mentioned from Istanbul it is easy to connect to just about anywhere. It appeals to me much more than any other hub, it definitely has potential to grow significantly, imho.

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