Wow that was fast!
Just tried booking a flight from MIA to POA and it routes me: MIA-CUN-PTY-POA with Copa operating CUN-PTY-POA and AA only operating MIA-CUN, all this in the aa.com.
And I believe MIA-BSB will not survive unless AA adjust a quick deal with G3 (which I believe they will try to do, but will only resolve Brazil)
I can imagine an AA meeting tomorrow.... what to do.... no solution for Colombia, Peru, Chile or Argentina other than try to run their own equipment to some markets and to counter attack in fares against future moves from DL/JJ.
What solution does AA need in Chile or Argentina? There is no way other than through local partners to access IQQ or BRC.
And I don’t know that I agree with you about MIA-BSB. AA retains a solid brand in Latin America, a nonstop to the largest O&D market in North America, and good connections to everywhere with appreciable demand. Those things are a good sized chunk of what makes the route succeed and all are independent of LATAM. DL (re)starting ATL-BSB would change things but we aren’t there yet.
You may be right about Chile and Argentina due to the huge concentration on SCL and EZE, but even if we believe that other markets in Chile for example may account for 20% of the travel demand Chile-US, it means this is a market outside of AA's reach without another partnership.
Same reason for me to believe BSB-MIA can be hit by the lack of distribution in Brazil.
Yes, AA have a solid brand but the BSB-MIA leg could be reach by customers on AA and LA websites even for people outside BSB. Now the feed is missing and it can be the difference between being a profitable route or not giving the low levels of return in aviation nowadays (net profits are below 10%). I used this route once but now for example, this is not possible unless I book separate tickets.
Frequent flyers adjust themselves for sure, but they are just part of the market. But how they will deal... big question: the massive LA base of clients in BSB could take advantage of AA's BSB-MIA service... now they will not and I do believe sooner than later BSB is a market where LA (or DL) will cover with an operation to the US.
And believe me: LA base of clients in BSB willing to visit the US is far bigger than the AA base of clients in the US willing to visit BSB.
AA compete in Sao Paulo, Santiago, Buenos Aires, Lima and Bogota with no doubt against LA (and we will see in my opinion more competition for the local O&D as LA will not feed anymore AA). But in other markets, we will se new trends depending on each move.
In the other hand, we will see also more focus on Latam to capture O&D's in Miami, Boston, Los Angeles and New York up to the point they put in place the agreement with DL (and so move from T8 in JFK to T4 where they can get feed from DL).