TropicalSky wrote:

Just to clarify is the 2 A350 arriving in 2020 in addition to Delta own aircraft slated for delivery next yr?

dmorbust wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Anybody else listening in on Delta's conference call today?

https://ir.delta.com/events-and-present ... fault.aspx

Yes, key bits of info:

LATAM plans to remain unaligned - this makes sense because they will continue to leverage existing OneWorld partners like Qantas, Iberia, BA, etc. while now also being able to partner with AF-KLM. AF-KLM is pretty lucky to get a bunch of upside while having to put up zero cash/risk.

DL will take 2 A350s by end of 2020. The rest will arrive by 2025.

Yes, Delta has 2 A350s due in spring from its own order, then two coming by year end from LATAM.

TropicalSky wrote:

Just to clarify is the 2 A350 arriving in 2020 in addition to Delta own aircraft slated for delivery next yr?

dmorbust wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Anybody else listening in on Delta's conference call today?

https://ir.delta.com/events-and-present ... fault.aspx

Yes, key bits of info:

LATAM plans to remain unaligned - this makes sense because they will continue to leverage existing OneWorld partners like Qantas, Iberia, BA, etc. while now also being able to partner with AF-KLM. AF-KLM is pretty lucky to get a bunch of upside while having to put up zero cash/risk.

DL will take 2 A350s by end of 2020. The rest will arrive by 2025.

Yes, 2 LATAM A350s will enter DL fleet by end of 2020. The rest by 2025*. Ed made it sound like they will eventually take the 14 total mentioned in the press release by 2025, but who knows really what will happen by that time and if DL will defer or negotiate with Airbus those 10 commitments. But the official word from them is all 14 by 2025.

AA and OneWorld management must have filled the back their trousers and skirts when they read this news!

MIflyer12 wrote:

It's easier to figure out what's in this for LATAM than for Delta: a big capital rescue:

1. Delta's purchase of 20% equity is new shares, so funds go straight to the company, not existing shareholders.
2. LATAM gets a $350 million kind-of-vague payment. Maybe it's to go the the oneworld termination fee (if any), purchase of DL software... That's a lot of money up front.
3. LATAM sells four A350 aircraft, so proceeds net of owed amounts got to LATAM.
4. LATAM gets out of buying ten more A350s.

And thus, straight from Delta's SEC 8-K filing today: For LATAM, the transaction will improve free cash flow generation, reduce forecasted debt by over $2 billion by 2025 and improve LATAM’s capital structure, enhancing its ability to execute its long-term strategy.

Exactly, deal of a lifetime for latam! How could they possibly pass up something this great?

jrkmsp wrote:

jayunited wrote:

Does anyone know why the Chilean Supreme Court blocked AA's proposed JV with LA? Prior to this AA was expecting the proposed JV to be worth hundreds of millions of dollar yearly. After the decision AA revised the number to $20 Million annually.

DL like AA will wants a JV with LA and we know JV's are far more lucrative than a simple partnership. Is there a chance that the Chilean Supreme Court could block a DL/LA joint venture?

In short, the #1 and #2 carriers between Chile and the US wanted a tie-up, which is pretty anti-competitive. Delta’s only last place, so it’s much less competitively damaging and might in some ways actually increase competition.

I can actually only think of one overlapping route between DL and LATAM: JFK-GRU which has ample competition from AA and United at Newark. No other competing routes. Compare that to the # of overlapping competing routes between AA and LATAM, and you can understand why Chile blocked the JV without insisting on big carveouts.

OMG this is truly a surprise. OW have South America firmly in its grip with LATAM and AA.

AA pulled CZ away from SkyTeam/Delta, so this is revenge.

MAH4546 wrote:

Touching upon some comments on what it could mean for Delta’s presence in Miami:

With plans for an expansion in service to South America, Delta plans to expand in Miami. For years, Delta has used its Atlanta hub as a gateway to Latin America. The LATAM partnership means “it’s going to be a balance” between Miami and Atlanta, Bastian said.

https://www.ajc.com/business/delta-spen ... mu2Nf4rSO/

Hard to not see a plan at least by delta to build up focus city that may eventually turn into a hub at Mia.

I don't see how else they can justify spending this much money on an airline struggling to stay afloat. They can start by adding more flights from cities they are strong in and looking to build up like Austin, Nashville, Memphis, Cancun, Cincinnati. And they already have quite a few international flights from their JV partners. This deal will allow them to double that presence.

Sure, a buildup would cost money but Delta has plenty of that. Miami is arguably a larger prize than sea and bos given its place as the undoubtedly leader to Latin America market

I do wonder what new routes could come out of the new DL/LATAM JV. I think there will definitely be a few new routes and some routes that have been previously flown being resumed as well.

Some "locks" to happen, IMO:
DL JFK-LIM
LATAM GRU-ATL
DL ATL-GYE
DL JFK-SCL
LATAM GRU-LAX. Sort of surprised LATAM doesn't already fly this one.
DL JFK-GIG goes year round

Some ones which seem to be a real possibility:
DL DTW-LIM. The feed will be a lot stronger than before, and LIM is one of DL's stronger South American bases right now. Plus, they could probably use a 757 on the route too considering UA uses a 757 on EWR-LIM.
LATAM LIM-ATL
LATAM GRU-AMS. With a JV with DL comes AF and KL too.
LATAM SEA-LIM, SCL or GRU. Would probably be seasonal to start, but it seems possible with a strong feed on both sides.
LATAM BOS-LIM or SCL. DL has obviously been building up in BOS recently and LATAM's GRU-BOS route seems to be doing well so far, so it seems possible they'd add another route out of BOS
LATAM IAD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. Will only be from one of these to start. This is more of a general prediction but IAD is a hole in LATAM's network. They dropped LIM-IAD recently, so it would most likely be from SCL or GRU.
LATAM ORD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. Same as above. I'm surprised LATAM doesn't fly to ORD yet.

Unlikely, but not impossible:
LATAM GRU-DTW. This would happen if DL either does not launch any DTW-South America routes or launches DTW-LIM instead.
DL GRU-MCO. They used to run this route not long ago. With a stronger feed in GRU, it could maybe work once again.
LATAM AUS-GRU or LIM. Considering how DL (and SkyTeam) have been building up in AUS, it's certainly possible LATAM would launch AUS from one of their big hub with a strong feed.
LATAM LIM-CDG. Like before, DL/AF/KLM.
LATAM SCL-CDG. Same as above.
DL ATL-BSB. There would be a very strong feed on both sides.

The (very, very) unlikely:
LATAM to MSP. I don't think there's a very strong demand from MSP to South America at all, so this one seems very unlikely and would have to rely heavily on connecting pax. If it ever did happen, I'd guess it would be on LATAM from either LIM or GRU. Doubt DL would do it, but I also doubt LATAM would do it.
DL JFK-EZE
LATAM to SLC. Like before, basically no demand from SLC, but there's connection options. Still very unlikely.
LATAM to TPA. There will be some stronger feed from DL in TPA (especially with the new AMS flight), but I'm doubt it will happen. If it did it would be from either LIM, SCL, or GRU, but obviously only one of them to start. Maybe seasonal to start, too.

I don't expect most of these routes to be launched immediately after the JV begins, but I do expect most of them to happen within a few years of the JV. My assumption is most of the growth will be from DL in ATL and both carriers at JFK. I also believe LAX will get some additions, and despite how hard I've been on DTW in the past, I believe they will probably get at least one new route. I expect some growth in most of the other large DL/LATAM markets except for MSP and SLC, which probably don't have anywhere near enough demand for a South American route. I also think AMS and CDG will see some growth from LATAM partially due to DL, and also due to AF and KL, which I'm assuming would also have some form of partnership with LATAM too. Remember that these are my predictions/opinions, so it's possible very few of these actually happen.

Truly remarkable how a once bankrupt airline has skyrocketed to be the premier world airline. I suppose a combination of factors got them to this point, favorable US bankruptcy laws first and foremost, labor unions that sacrificed a lot, give it to the forward-thinking management and of course the US economy with 10 years of steady growth. Way to go DELTA!

dmorbust wrote:

aguifs wrote:

I work with flight dispatch for Gol Linhas Aéreas. I'm really afraid what's next for G3. Suddenly, without Delta, we're no match for Latam and Azul. I don't envision AF-KLM coming for the rescue. Gol is bleeding... We already had the Max issue and now this... Is there any siver lining?

I think Gol will actually end up in a better position once AA decides to partner with them. AA to Brazil is larger than DL to Brazil, so that's more feed for Gol and a bigger more dominant Brazilian partner.

after this deal is finalized, there will be a new pecking order between the two markets of North America and South America

According to Bastien, the deal would put Delta and LATAM ahead of the current No. 1 American Airlines and No. 2 United Airlines.

grbauc wrote:

Adipocere wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

People are way overestimating the effect of this upon AA. AA was the king of Latin America before any relationship with LA/LATAM and will be afterwards. He who rules MIA rules US-Latin America traffic. If anything LATAM is the one being screwed here as they are going to lose most of their US point-of-sale traffic, especially in MIA.

If LATAM wants feed, why wouldn’t they just go to ATL and tap into that fire hydrant?? AA is the one reeling here - in football terms it’s DL at the one-yard line at MIA - only a fumble can stop them from taking over.

If they do evict AA from MIA, then looking 10 years out - Texas could come into play for DL. A lot of things have to go right for DL and a lot more have to go badly for AA, but there is a path for AA to lose hubs at MIA and DFW...

Wow this is great news for DL DFW and MIA are gone to DL what about ORD? how can DL get it? LAX will fold to DL also I assume? AA can keep PHL/PHX/CLT and maybe move back in to PIT?

In my opinion DL is not spending billions upfront to just ‘nudge’ the status quo a little bit here and there. I see this as a huge swing of the bat to inflict maximum competitive damage to AA and once there is a head of momentum built up at MIA, why would DL just stop there??

tphuang wrote:

MAH4546 wrote:

Touching upon some comments on what it could mean for Delta’s presence in Miami:

With plans for an expansion in service to South America, Delta plans to expand in Miami. For years, Delta has used its Atlanta hub as a gateway to Latin America. The LATAM partnership means “it’s going to be a balance” between Miami and Atlanta, Bastian said.

https://www.ajc.com/business/delta-spen ... mu2Nf4rSO/

Hard to not see a plan at least by delta to build up focus city that may eventually turn into a hub at Mia.

I don't see how else they can justify spending this much money on an airline struggling to stay afloat. They can start by adding more flights from cities they are strong in and looking to build up like Austin, Nashville, Memphis, Cancun, Cincinnati. And they already have quite a few international flights from their JV partners. This deal will allow them to double that presence.

Sure, a buildup would cost money but Delta has plenty of that. Miami is arguably a larger prize than sea and bos given its place as the undoubtedly leader to Latin America market

What cities do you think LATAM will serve from MIA that DL won't serve from ATL? It's hard to see the case for something like CVG-MIA when that overflies ATL and really won't open up much in the way of new connecting flows. As I said way upthread, I think this makes MIA service from Florida and other points south of ATL more attractive. Those cities have much different geography than CVG.

tphuang wrote:

[

I don't see how else they can justify spending this much money on an airline struggling to stay afloat. t

struggling to stay afloat, really? Maybe a bit dramatic? can you please provide supporting documentation/articles that would suggest they are struggling to stay afloat?

The reason LATAM is losing money is largely because of foreign currency movements,. If you look at their operating margins, they’ve consistently been profitable

boeingbus wrote:

Truly remarkable how a once bankrupt airline has skyrocketed to be the premier world airline. I suppose a combination of factors got them to this point, favorable US bankruptcy laws first and foremost, labor unions that sacrificed a lot, give it to the forward-thinking management and of course the US economy with 10 years of steady growth. Way to go DELTA!

As of 12/31/2018, Delta had 13,203 unionized pilots and 432 unionized dispatchers, plus some pilots/FAs/dispatchers at Endeavor. That left Delta 81% non-unionized among its 89,000 full-time-equivalent employees. AA has more planes, about the same revenue, the same U.S. macro factors and bankruptcy law, yet is worth a little less than 1/3 of Delta. See Market Cap: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aal

jumbojet wrote:

dmorbust wrote:

aguifs wrote:

I work with flight dispatch for Gol Linhas Aéreas. I'm really afraid what's next for G3. Suddenly, without Delta, we're no match for Latam and Azul. I don't envision AF-KLM coming for the rescue. Gol is bleeding... We already had the Max issue and now this... Is there any siver lining?

I think Gol will actually end up in a better position once AA decides to partner with them. AA to Brazil is larger than DL to Brazil, so that's more feed for Gol and a bigger more dominant Brazilian partner.

after this deal is finalized, there will be a new pecking order between the two markets of North America and South America

According to Bastien, the deal would put Delta and LATAM ahead of the current No. 1 American Airlines and No. 2 United Airlines.

Yeah I do think G3 is in for a rough ride. According to some sources I heard both LA and G3 were negotiating with DL, and that's possibly why LA suddenly decided to acquire all shares of Multiplus and G3 tried to acquire all shares of Smiles. But LA was a much bigger and a way more efficient company. It was a battle G3 could never win.

Their best shot now is AA/IAG buying those shares DL will sell, the ones AF/KL will likely sell and a few more.

Detroit313 wrote:

Statement from AA:

"Further, this change in partnership is not expected to have a significant financial impact to American, as the current relationship provided less than $20 million of incremental revenue to American, and the proposed joint business without Chile would have provided limited upside.

For $20 million in incremental revenue, it made no sense for AA to outbid Delta.

The Brazilian economy is highly volatile. LATAM is struggling financially. It's a desperate move to trade Miami POS (with AA) for $1.9 B and planes they can no longer afford.

If LATAM were as strategically important as JAL, AA might have raised the money. But without the possibility of a full JV there was no upside to the relationship. AA is better off spending $2.3B (with the transition costs) on facilities, planes, or even a strategic acquisition of their own.

Indeed, it's a perfect opportunity for AA and UA to make moves of their own. One or the other might have already decided that it is wiser to spend $2.3B+ on buying JetBlue or Alaska than buying a stake in LATAM. Only AA is in the best regulatory position to purchase JetBlue. Come on AA. The next move is yours.

raylee67 wrote:

OMG this is truly a surprise. OW have had South America firmly in its grip with LATAM and AA. AA pulled CZ away from SkyTeam/Delta, so this is revenge.

Not quite revenge. DL still has MU, and CZ is not likely to join Oneworld. But AA now has NO ONE in Latin America. From the dominant alliance in the region, Oneworld will now shrink to nearly nothing—a little like in BUD when Malév collapsed (though that was on a much, much smaller scale).

MIflyer12 wrote:

boeingbus wrote:

Truly remarkable how a once bankrupt airline has skyrocketed to be the premier world airline. I suppose a combination of factors got them to this point, favorable US bankruptcy laws first and foremost, labor unions that sacrificed a lot, give it to the forward-thinking management and of course the US economy with 10 years of steady growth. Way to go DELTA!

As of 12/31/2018, Delta had 13,203 unionized pilots and 432 unionized dispatchers, plus some pilots/FAs/dispatchers at Endeavor. That left Delta 81% non-unionized among its 89,000 full-time-equivalent employees. AA has more planes, about the same revenue, the same U.S. macro factors and bankruptcy law, yet is worth a little less than 1/3 of Delta. See Market Cap: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aal

Delta has about 14,500 seniority list pilots. Of those maybe 400 are still on probation. In my 5 years here, we’ve never been below about 14,200 on the list.


ILL

JJ777 wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

dmorbust wrote:

I think Gol will actually end up in a better position once AA decides to partner with them. AA to Brazil is larger than DL to Brazil, so that's more feed for Gol and a bigger more dominant Brazilian partner.

after this deal is finalized, there will be a new pecking order between the two markets of North America and South America

According to Bastien, the deal would put Delta and LATAM ahead of the current No. 1 American Airlines and No. 2 United Airlines.

Yeah I do think G3 is in for a rough ride. According to some sources I heard both LA and G3 were negotiating with DL, and that's possibly why LA suddenly decided to acquire all shares of Multiplus and G3 tried to acquire all shares of Smiles. But LA was a much bigger and a way more efficient company. It was a battle G3 could never win.

Their best shot now is AA/IAG buying those shares DL will sell, the ones AF/KL will likely sell and a few more.

Gol / G3 will be fine or even better off with AA. AA will be fine in Brazil with G3. AA will be hurt everywhere else in South America (but of course still in the game thanks to their strength at MIA), though I expect Brazil will not see much of a hit at all thanks to Gol.

Phoenix757767 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

BN727227Ultra wrote:

My guess is that MIA becomes an open city to the same extent as LAX.

Keep in mind DL has a fairly large FLL presence, and runs a few p2p routes from MIA.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the FLL flying shifts to MIA, MCO-MIA comes back, and the CMH/IND/RDU/DCA-MIA flights get expanded.

AA will likely respond to any DL growth with massive resistance though.

Assuming (based on Ed's comments) that MIA becomes a focus city for DL, DL's network will be formidable.
Hubs: ATL, SEA, LAX, SLC, MSP, DTW, BOS, JFK, LGA
Focus Cities: RDU, CVG, MIA, AUS, BNA, SJC
De facto focus cities: PDX, LAS, MCO, e.t.c

With what gates?

If Delta can convince the aviation department to kick United out of H3 and H14 and put all United flights at Concourse G, that's 2 more gates Delta can use. H8, H10, and H12 are wide open in the mornings and early afternoons until the European flights arrive. International capable gates H4 and H6 also go largely unused throughout the day with only 3 turns on each gate.

dmorbust wrote:

JJ777 wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

after this deal is finalized, there will be a new pecking order between the two markets of North America and South America

According to Bastien, the deal would put Delta and LATAM ahead of the current No. 1 American Airlines and No. 2 United Airlines.

Yeah I do think G3 is in for a rough ride. According to some sources I heard both LA and G3 were negotiating with DL, and that's possibly why LA suddenly decided to acquire all shares of Multiplus and G3 tried to acquire all shares of Smiles. But LA was a much bigger and a way more efficient company. It was a battle G3 could never win.

Their best shot now is AA/IAG buying those shares DL will sell, the ones AF/KL will likely sell and a few more.

Gol / G3 will be fine or even better off with AA. AA will be fine in Brazil with G3. AA will be hurt everywhere else in South America (but of course still in the game thanks to their strength at MIA), though I expect Brazil will not see much of a hit at all thanks to Gol.

Agree, while it is some near term turbulence for AA and GOL, I think long-term a tie-up between the two will be better than AA/LATAM (non-JV). Both airlines just lost important partners, so they will be a natural fit. Moreover, GOL is more South American focused without long-haul flights, while AA exclusively has the long-haul; I think its a great fit.

ldvaviation wrote:

Detroit313 wrote:

Statement from AA:

"Further, this change in partnership is not expected to have a significant financial impact to American, as the current relationship provided less than $20 million of incremental revenue to American, and the proposed joint business without Chile would have provided limited upside.

For $20 million in incremental revenue, it made no sense for AA to outbid Delta.

The Brazilian economy is highly volatile. LATAM is struggling financially. It's a desperate move to trade Miami POS (with AA) for $1.9 B and planes they can no longer afford.

If LATAM were as strategically important as JAL, AA might have raised the money. But without the possibility of a full JV there was no upside to the relationship. AA is better off spending $2.3B (with the transition costs) on facilities, planes, or even a strategic acquisition of their own.

Indeed, it's a perfect opportunity for AA and UA to make moves of their own. One or the other might have already decided that it is wiser to spend $1.9B+ on buying JetBlue or Alaska than buying a stake in LATAM. Only AA is in the best regulatory position to purchase JetBlue. Come on AA. The next move is yours.

To buy Alaska or B6, AA would need multiples of that money, and I doubt they'd gain DOJ approval. However, with that amount of money AA could come close to buying Gol Linhas (I think Brazil lifted foreign airline ownership restrictions) and then be #1 in Brazil or at least neck and neck with LATAM + Delta. I do wonder who the more powerful combination in Brazil would be?

That said, AA don't need to buy out Gol or even take a stake in them to get Gol to agree to a JV; I'm sure Gol will be very happy to jump into AA's bed.

How do you think LA will replace the A350s that it will transfer to DL? Or they won't be replaced at all?

N292UX wrote:

Some ones which seem to be a real possibility:
DL DTW-LIM. The feed will be a lot stronger than before, and LIM is one of DL's stronger South American bases right now. Plus, they could probably use a 757 on the route too considering UA uses a 757 on EWR-LIM.
LATAM LIM-ATL
LATAM GRU-AMS. With a JV with DL comes AF and KL too.
LATAM SEA-LIM, SCL or GRU. Would probably be seasonal to start, but it seems possible with a strong feed on both sides.
LATAM BOS-LIM or SCL. DL has obviously been building up in BOS recently and LATAM's GRU-BOS route seems to be doing well so far, so it seems possible they'd add another route out of BOS
LATAM IAD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. Will only be from one of these to start. This is more of a general prediction but IAD is a hole in LATAM's network. They dropped LIM-IAD recently, so it would most likely be from SCL or GRU.
LATAM ORD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. Same as above. I'm surprised LATAM doesn't fly to ORD yet.

I'm going to disagree with a few routes you gauge as real possibility:

LATAM SEA-LIM, SCL or GRU. I don't think so. There's no history of Latin America (other than a few Mexican beach resorts) demand from the Pacific Northwest. As for SEA feed, many of the West Coast destinations DL handles from SEA it also handles via LAX.

LATAM BOS-LIM or SCL. Doubt it, unless you can point to strong O&D markets. BOS' position in the Northeast makes it a very poor aggregator of traffic headed to South America. DL could probably run BOS-BOG with a domestic F 757, though.

LATAM IAD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. LATAM ORD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. Again, I doubt it. DL has no particular sales strength in CHI (a poor, poor #3) or WAS. If LATAM wanted those markets it would serve them already. I don't know what 787s it still has on order but transferring 4 A350s is going to crimp some long-haul ambitions.

On the Conf Call this morning DL suggested they could have some codeshares up and selling by the end of this year. I wonder if they'll try JFK and/or LAX before attempting the much bigger nugget that is MIA.

raylee67 wrote:

OMG this is truly a surprise. OW have South America firmly in its grip with LATAM and AA.

AA pulled CZ away from SkyTeam/Delta, so this is revenge.

Actually not. Delta has China Eastern as their partner, and it was announced earlier than CZ-AA partnership. That is to say, CZ was abandoned by Delta.

Well I was just fooling around at LA's website checking some tickets from GRU to numerous destinations in the USA and in Canada and many AA flights have pretty much disappeared from there already. Perhaps we'll have a fairly quick divorce after all.

Another DL partner/JV international route out of Boston for their route map, GRU-BOS!

OB1504 wrote:

Phoenix757767 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Keep in mind DL has a fairly large FLL presence, and runs a few p2p routes from MIA.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the FLL flying shifts to MIA, MCO-MIA comes back, and the CMH/IND/RDU/DCA-MIA flights get expanded.

AA will likely respond to any DL growth with massive resistance though.

Assuming (based on Ed's comments) that MIA becomes a focus city for DL, DL's network will be formidable.
Hubs: ATL, SEA, LAX, SLC, MSP, DTW, BOS, JFK, LGA
Focus Cities: RDU, CVG, MIA, AUS, BNA, SJC
De facto focus cities: PDX, LAS, MCO, e.t.c

With what gates?

If Delta can convince the aviation department to kick United out of H3 and H14 and put all United flights at Concourse G, that's 2 more gates Delta can use. H8, H10, and H12 are wide open in the mornings and early afternoons until the European flights arrive. International capable gates H4 and H6 also go largely unused throughout the day with only 3 turns on each gate.

DL will find a way to get gates, the bigger problem will be combating AA's response to growth in MIA, which will undoubtedly be fierce.

MIflyer12 wrote:

N292UX wrote:

Some ones which seem to be a real possibility:
DL DTW-LIM. The feed will be a lot stronger than before, and LIM is one of DL's stronger South American bases right now. Plus, they could probably use a 757 on the route too considering UA uses a 757 on EWR-LIM.
LATAM LIM-ATL
LATAM GRU-AMS. With a JV with DL comes AF and KL too.
LATAM SEA-LIM, SCL or GRU. Would probably be seasonal to start, but it seems possible with a strong feed on both sides.
LATAM BOS-LIM or SCL. DL has obviously been building up in BOS recently and LATAM's GRU-BOS route seems to be doing well so far, so it seems possible they'd add another route out of BOS
LATAM IAD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. Will only be from one of these to start. This is more of a general prediction but IAD is a hole in LATAM's network. They dropped LIM-IAD recently, so it would most likely be from SCL or GRU.
LATAM ORD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. Same as above. I'm surprised LATAM doesn't fly to ORD yet.

I'm going to disagree with a few routes you gauge as real possibility:

LATAM SEA-LIM, SCL or GRU. I don't think so. There's no history of Latin America (other than a few Mexican beach resorts) demand from the Pacific Northwest. As for SEA feed, many of the West Coast destinations DL handles from SEA it also handles via LAX.

LATAM BOS-LIM or SCL. Doubt it, unless you can point to strong O&D markets. BOS' position in the Northeast makes it a very poor aggregator of traffic headed to South America. DL could probably run BOS-BOG with a domestic F 757, though.

LATAM IAD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. LATAM ORD-LIM, SCL, or GRU. Again, I doubt it. DL has no particular sales strength in CHI (a poor, poor #3) or WAS. If LATAM wanted those markets it would serve them already. I don't know what 787s it still has on order but transferring 4 A350s is going to crimp some long-haul ambitions.

On the Conf Call this morning DL suggested they could have some codeshares up and selling by the end of this year. I wonder if they'll try JFK and/or LAX before attempting the much bigger nugget that is MIA.

I agree with BOS-BOG being a possibility - could DL fly an A220 on this route if they wanted to/ does it have the legs?
I definitely see LAX-BOG coming. The previously announced and soon to commence DL JFK-BOG will now work for sure. I am actually quite bullish on DL+Latam in Colombia - I believe Latam is a strong #2 there and had previously announced a capacity push in the country, plus Avianca is in a state of flux right now = an opportune time to grow there.

Midwestindy wrote:

BN727227Ultra wrote:

eal wrote:

What is going to happen at MIA? LATAM's presence was huge, basically a mini hub, will that switch over to ATL or will Delta start trying to build feed out of MIA to compliment the O+D. This is probably the craziest news I've heard in awhile.

My guess is that MIA becomes an open city to the same extent as LAX.

Keep in mind DL has a fairly large FLL presence, and runs a few p2p routes from MIA.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the FLL flying shifts to MIA, MCO-MIA comes back, and the CMH/IND/RDU/DCA-MIA flights get expanded.

AA will likely respond to any DL growth with massive resistance though.

Assuming (based on Ed's comments) that MIA becomes a focus city for DL, DL's network will be formidable.
Hubs: ATL, SEA, LAX, SLC, MSP, DTW, BOS, JFK, LGA
Focus Cities: RDU, CVG, MIA, AUS, BNA, SJC
De facto focus cities: PDX, LAS, MCO, e.t.c

I was wondering what role FLL might have in all of this. Could be an interesting place to develop for further Latin American expansion.

https://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com ... am-genius/

Good article, sums up a lot about whats going on.

Delta’s Investment In LATAM Is Pure Genius

the article mentions that some of the additional 350's are well suited for south American expansion

The article goes on to describe how this is a huge blow to AA and OW and how this is a genius move:

A close relationship with LATAM will give Delta unparalleled access to primary and secondary destinations throughout the region, giving Delta not only a seat at the table, but equity.
This is big news because Ed Bastian was not just talking big…Delta truly is creating a global airline network independent of alliances or other restraints. At the driver’s seat, Delta sees a world dominated by it and its network partners, with a cohesive product experience that will keep customers loyal.
CONCLUSION
Delta’s move comes as a surprise, but should not be. Flush with cash and ready to secure its market dominance, Delta’s genius move to acquire LATAM and strengthen its Latin America network was actually long overdue.

VTCIE wrote:

raylee67 wrote:

OMG this is truly a surprise. OW have had South America firmly in its grip with LATAM and AA. AA pulled CZ away from SkyTeam/Delta, so this is revenge.

Not quite revenge. DL still has MU, and CZ is not likely to join Oneworld. But AA now has NO ONE in Latin America. From the dominant alliance in the region, Oneworld will now shrink to nearly nothing—a little like in BUD when Malév collapsed (though that was on a much, much smaller scale).

AA has themselves. they were fine before they had LAN and were big in Brazil before TAM. the reason for so many of the cuts were because of the unstable economies in south america, something delta should be mindful of. AA has MIA, DFW, and LAX which are all strong to south america regardless of the partnership.

this site is in hysteria. AA will be fine. Iberia will be fine. i don't see BA and QF staying in SCL though

wenders825 wrote:

VTCIE wrote:

raylee67 wrote:

OMG this is truly a surprise. OW have had South America firmly in its grip with LATAM and AA. AA pulled CZ away from SkyTeam/Delta, so this is revenge.

Not quite revenge. DL still has MU, and CZ is not likely to join Oneworld. But AA now has NO ONE in Latin America. From the dominant alliance in the region, Oneworld will now shrink to nearly nothing—a little like in BUD when Malév collapsed (though that was on a much, much smaller scale).

AA has themselves. they were fine before they had LAN and were big in Brazil before TAM. the reason for so many of the cuts were because of the unstable economies in south america, something delta should be mindful of. AA has MIA, DFW, and LAX which are all strong to south america regardless of the partnership.

this site is in hysteria. AA will be fine. Iberia will be fine. i don't see BA and QF staying in SCL though

AA will be fine? I guess, it depends on how you define 'fine'.

LATAM will separate from oneworld and sever its ties with American. This undermines the one market in which American was dominant, placing American (once again) at a potential strategic disadvantage.
LATAM’s departure will also create a huge hole in Latin America for oneworld, leaving not a single partner based in Latin America.

That is huge.

jumbojet wrote:

wenders825 wrote:

VTCIE wrote:

Not quite revenge. DL still has MU, and CZ is not likely to join Oneworld. But AA now has NO ONE in Latin America. From the dominant alliance in the region, Oneworld will now shrink to nearly nothing—a little like in BUD when Malév collapsed (though that was on a much, much smaller scale).

AA has themselves. they were fine before they had LAN and were big in Brazil before TAM. the reason for so many of the cuts were because of the unstable economies in south america, something delta should be mindful of. AA has MIA, DFW, and LAX which are all strong to south america regardless of the partnership.

this site is in hysteria. AA will be fine. Iberia will be fine. i don't see BA and QF staying in SCL though

AA will be fine? I guess, it depends on how you define 'fine'.

LATAM will separate from oneworld and sever its ties with American. This undermines the one market in which American was dominant, placing American (once again) at a potential strategic disadvantage.
LATAM’s departure will also create a huge hole in Latin America for oneworld, leaving not a single partner based in Latin America.

That is huge.

Listen, I'm a big DL fan, but AA will be fine. Sure, some near-term trouble losing a partner, but AA still has a strong presence and it will find new partners. Also, alliances are dead...I expected LATAM will maintain some partnerships with oneworld carriers.

Cubsrule wrote:

tphuang wrote:

MAH4546 wrote:

Touching upon some comments on what it could mean for Delta’s presence in Miami:

With plans for an expansion in service to South America, Delta plans to expand in Miami. For years, Delta has used its Atlanta hub as a gateway to Latin America. The LATAM partnership means “it’s going to be a balance” between Miami and Atlanta, Bastian said.

https://www.ajc.com/business/delta-spen ... mu2Nf4rSO/

Hard to not see a plan at least by delta to build up focus city that may eventually turn into a hub at Mia.

I don't see how else they can justify spending this much money on an airline struggling to stay afloat. They can start by adding more flights from cities they are strong in and looking to build up like Austin, Nashville, Memphis, Cancun, Cincinnati. And they already have quite a few international flights from their JV partners. This deal will allow them to double that presence.

Sure, a buildup would cost money but Delta has plenty of that. Miami is arguably a larger prize than sea and bos given its place as the undoubtedly leader to Latin America market

What cities do you think LATAM will serve from MIA that DL won't serve from ATL? It's hard to see the case for something like CVG-MIA when that overflies ATL and really won't open up much in the way of new connecting flows. As I said way upthread, I think this makes MIA service from Florida and other points south of ATL more attractive. Those cities have much different geography than CVG.

LATAM already has an extensive network from Miami to secondary Brazil. Not that it needs feed, though, because it’s largely an O&D operation.

I suspect we will see LATAM Ecuador and LATAM Columbia return to Miami with the AA partnership gone.

tphuang wrote:

MAH4546 wrote:

Touching upon some comments on what it could mean for Delta’s presence in Miami:

With plans for an expansion in service to South America, Delta plans to expand in Miami. For years, Delta has used its Atlanta hub as a gateway to Latin America. The LATAM partnership means “it’s going to be a balance” between Miami and Atlanta, Bastian said.

https://www.ajc.com/business/delta-spen ... mu2Nf4rSO/

Hard to not see a plan at least by delta to build up focus city that may eventually turn into a hub at Mia.

I don't see how else they can justify spending this much money on an airline struggling to stay afloat. They can start by adding more flights from cities they are strong in and looking to build up like Austin, Nashville, Memphis, Cancun, Cincinnati. And they already have quite a few international flights from their JV partners. This deal will allow them to double that presence.

Sure, a buildup would cost money but Delta has plenty of that. Miami is arguably a larger prize than sea and bos given its place as the undoubtedly leader to Latin America market

I don’t think Delta has plans to build MIA into a hub in the traditional sense. And I doubt DL will want to directly take on AA to be King of MIA. It’s not worth the blood bath. DL will, however, compete with AA using a strategy that is more effective for them. For example, MIA supplemental to ATL as BOS is supplemental to JFK... or MIA as a launch pad operation, similar to SEA. Over the past 10+ years DL has been incredibly methodical in evolving into the airline it is today. Delta definitely has its sights on a next gen global network.

Side Note: DL doesn’t really define what differentiates “focus city” and “hub.”

Cubsrule wrote:

tphuang wrote:

MAH4546 wrote:

Touching upon some comments on what it could mean for Delta’s presence in Miami:

With plans for an expansion in service to South America, Delta plans to expand in Miami. For years, Delta has used its Atlanta hub as a gateway to Latin America. The LATAM partnership means “it’s going to be a balance” between Miami and Atlanta, Bastian said.

https://www.ajc.com/business/delta-spen ... mu2Nf4rSO/

Hard to not see a plan at least by delta to build up focus city that may eventually turn into a hub at Mia.

I don't see how else they can justify spending this much money on an airline struggling to stay afloat. They can start by adding more flights from cities they are strong in and looking to build up like Austin, Nashville, Memphis, Cancun, Cincinnati. And they already have quite a few international flights from their JV partners. This deal will allow them to double that presence.

Sure, a buildup would cost money but Delta has plenty of that. Miami is arguably a larger prize than sea and bos given its place as the undoubtedly leader to Latin America market

What cities do you think LATAM will serve from MIA that DL won't serve from ATL? It's hard to see the case for something like CVG-MIA when that overflies ATL and really won't open up much in the way of new connecting flows. As I said way upthread, I think this makes MIA service from Florida and other points south of ATL more attractive. Those cities have much different geography than CVG.

I believe LA serves SSA, REC, FOR, BEL, and MAO from MIA. And if LA+DL were to start nonstops from the likes of BSB and CNF to the U.S., MIA would be the logical gateway.

I think any DL expansion in MIA related to the LA partnership will be focused on connectivity to the biggest destinations for Latin American travelers, and the cities with the largest South American diasporas in the U.S. I could certainly see a return of DL to MIA-MCO, a beefing up of their presence in NYC-MIA and BOS-MIA, bringing back LAX-MIA for the umpteenth time, and perhaps finding a way to enter some markets new to them like MIA-LAS, MIA-TPA, and/or MIA-WAS. As far as I can tell, demand from Latin America to the U.S. is heavily focused on Florida, NYC, and California, and those are also the areas that have some of the largest expat communities.

I think ATL's role will continue to be feeding traffic accumulated across a plethora of domestic destinations onto flights to the largest South American destinations, with minimal flights to secondary South American cities.

jumbojet wrote:

wenders825 wrote:

VTCIE wrote:

Not quite revenge. DL still has MU, and CZ is not likely to join Oneworld. But AA now has NO ONE in Latin America. From the dominant alliance in the region, Oneworld will now shrink to nearly nothing—a little like in BUD when Malév collapsed (though that was on a much, much smaller scale).

AA has themselves. they were fine before they had LAN and were big in Brazil before TAM. the reason for so many of the cuts were because of the unstable economies in south america, something delta should be mindful of. AA has MIA, DFW, and LAX which are all strong to south america regardless of the partnership.

this site is in hysteria. AA will be fine. Iberia will be fine. i don't see BA and QF staying in SCL though

AA will be fine? I guess, it depends on how you define 'fine'.

LATAM will separate from oneworld and sever its ties with American. This undermines the one market in which American was dominant, placing American (once again) at a potential strategic disadvantage.
LATAM’s departure will also create a huge hole in Latin America for oneworld, leaving not a single partner based in Latin America.

That is huge.

Yes, AA will be fine. I totally get it, you are a huge DL fan who wants to put this in a sky is falling type of scenario. However, the MIA hub is still there, has not sunk into the Atlantic Ocean and is a strong 300 plus flight a day hub for the airline. The MIA hub has existed well before LAN/LATAM became partners. MIA is the strongest market for many of the destinations in South and Central America and I can’t see AA leaving markets just because LATAM left. The sky is not falling.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is going to be a huge problem for AA going forward. With this development, DL gains a much bigger ability to route passengers to South America that previously AA would have been the only option. People are saying, AA will be fine, MIA is a fortress hub and they will be ok. Here is the problem. According to Doug Parker, MIA is on par with LAX and NYC in terms of profitability, in other words it is among their least profitable and worst performing hubs already. In fact, AA has trimmed a few MIA-South America routes already and most of the new additions to Latin America have been at DFW, not MIA. So lets take a closer look at the hubs. AA has made it clear their priority is to grow the top three hubs, which are CLT, DFW, and DCA. Additionally, although AA has left ORD-Asia, ORD-Europe has seen significant ramp up in recent years, and PHL has also seen that. PHX has seen some growth as well with new destinations including LHR. NYC has been discussed at length here. AA is trying to turn LAX into the pacific gateway, and the service there has been in that region. But what has happened in MIA? Absolutely nothing. Very little growth, some destinations that AA has pulled out of (Think VVI and LPB as well as Belo). If Delta were to build up MIA somewhat, I am not convinced that with this leadership team there would be a turf defense. Look at their track record. Parker literally handed LGA to Delta when running USAirways, and the JFK strategy seems iffy at the moment. At one point US was the leading carrier in BOS, and AA also was, B6 came in and US blinked, but DL didn't, and now look what DL has turned BOS into.

Maybe AA does defend MIA. But given that MIA is not doing as well for AA as their other hubs right now, and given the desire for AA to grow CLT, DCA, and DFW, can they do all that and still defend MIA? Who knows.

[photoid][/photoid]

VTCIE wrote:

raylee67 wrote:

OMG this is truly a surprise. OW have had South America firmly in its grip with LATAM and AA. AA pulled CZ away from SkyTeam/Delta, so this is revenge.

Not quite revenge. DL still has MU, and CZ is not likely to join Oneworld. But AA now has NO ONE in Latin America. From the dominant alliance in the region, Oneworld will now shrink to nearly nothing—a little like in BUD when Malév collapsed (though that was on a much, much smaller scale).

I can believe the hysteria I am reading on this site. AA and IB are still by far the top carriers to/from Latin America and will still be after the end of the LATAM relationship. OW will still be a major force in Latin America just because of that.

If anything this will further validate MCO as a connecting point to South America for Delta. Expanding at MIA is pure speculation?

Does a route like LAX-GRU stand a chance for AA without LATAM marketing and FF base on Brazil end? Its has to be marginal already being reduced to 4x weekly. Same with LAX-EZE operated 3x weekly.

usflyer msp wrote:

I can believe the hysteria I am reading on this site. AA and IB are still by far the top carriers to/from Latin America and will still be after the end of the LATAM relationship. OW will still be a major force in Latin America just because of that.

For real the hyperbole is just silly. LATAM is going to get squeezed now with full force flying to North America and Europe by AA and IB. LATAM might have cut off its nose to spite its face.

tphuang wrote:

MAH4546 wrote:

Touching upon some comments on what it could mean for Delta’s presence in Miami:

With plans for an expansion in service to South America, Delta plans to expand in Miami. For years, Delta has used its Atlanta hub as a gateway to Latin America. The LATAM partnership means “it’s going to be a balance” between Miami and Atlanta, Bastian said.

https://www.ajc.com/business/delta-spen ... mu2Nf4rSO/

Hard to not see a plan at least by delta to build up focus city that may eventually turn into a hub at Mia.

I don't see how else they can justify spending this much money on an airline struggling to stay afloat. They can start by adding more flights from cities they are strong in and looking to build up like Austin, Nashville, Memphis, Cancun, Cincinnati. And they already have quite a few international flights from their JV partners. This deal will allow them to double that presence.

Sure, a buildup would cost money but Delta has plenty of that. Miami is arguably a larger prize than sea and bos given its place as the undoubtedly leader to Latin America market

LATAM "struggling to stay afloat" ???? Are you serious ???? If LATAM is "struggling to stay afloat", how do you qualify AZ, AR, IB ??? With your standards/logic , even CX could be "struggling to stay afloat" after weeks of turmoil in Hong Kong.
It seems pretty obvious, you don't have a clue about long term operation of a big airline, and much less about revenue/profits/market expansion forecasts for LA, which is by the way a truly continental operator, something no other airline could say seriously in the Latin American market.

Regards.

G.

chepos wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

wenders825 wrote:

AA has themselves. they were fine before they had LAN and were big in Brazil before TAM. the reason for so many of the cuts were because of the unstable economies in south america, something delta should be mindful of. AA has MIA, DFW, and LAX which are all strong to south america regardless of the partnership.

this site is in hysteria. AA will be fine. Iberia will be fine. i don't see BA and QF staying in SCL though

AA will be fine? I guess, it depends on how you define 'fine'.

LATAM will separate from oneworld and sever its ties with American. This undermines the one market in which American was dominant, placing American (once again) at a potential strategic disadvantage.
LATAM’s departure will also create a huge hole in Latin America for oneworld, leaving not a single partner based in Latin America.

That is huge.

Yes, AA will be fine. I totally get it, you are a huge DL fan who wants to put this in a sky is falling type of scenario. However, the MIA hub is still there, has not sunk into the Atlantic Ocean and is a strong 300 plus flight a day hub for the airline. The MIA hub has existed well before LAN/LATAM became partners. MIA is the strongest market for many of the destinations in South and Central America and I can’t see AA leaving markets just because LATAM left. The sky is not falling.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can't understand his obsession with DL and how he or she doesn't realize how utterly ridiculous whatever he or she posts comes across EVERY time.
No matter what any of you post, AA does, despite the subjective propaganda most of you spew, have a strong and loyal following in South America. Miami IS the destination for most of them. AA can now rip LATAM to shreds for this move and I hope they do and finally take a more offensive approach to building and protecting MIA. This should and I HOPE wake up AA management to get their act together in MIA. The product is there with the 777, soon to be 787s and the lounges. I can't wait to see how this all unfolds

UPlog wrote:

Does a route like LAX-GRU stand a chance for AA without LATAM marketing and FF base on Brazil end? Its has to be marginal already being reduced to 4x weekly. Same with LAX-EZE operated 3x weekly.

Yes likely these are marginal routes without the benefit of having a partner on the other end be it for connections, sales, or FF base and their affinity.

While AA is downplaying this, LATAM combined on daily basis provided feed to AA in the hundreds across the continent and into the MIA hub which will be costly to replace be it with other smaller partners or organically with their own flying.

AA also needs to make fast decision on staffing and airport facilities in the region as over the years it has farmed out handling to LATAM and closed down AAdmiral Clubs in favor of partner LATAM facilities in several cities.

UPlog wrote:

Does a route like LAX-GRU stand a chance for AA without LATAM marketing and FF base on Brazil end? Its has to be marginal already being reduced to 4x weekly. Same with LAX-EZE operated 3x weekly.

AA is not dependent upon LATAM for anything in Latin America. AA has had its own sales and marketing teams and its own FF base and corporate contracts in the region going back to the Braniff days. IMHO, the only route that is dependent upon LATAM feed is DFW-SCL.

MAH4546 wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Hard to not see a plan at least by delta to build up focus city that may eventually turn into a hub at Mia.

I don't see how else they can justify spending this much money on an airline struggling to stay afloat. They can start by adding more flights from cities they are strong in and looking to build up like Austin, Nashville, Memphis, Cancun, Cincinnati. And they already have quite a few international flights from their JV partners. This deal will allow them to double that presence.

Sure, a buildup would cost money but Delta has plenty of that. Miami is arguably a larger prize than sea and bos given its place as the undoubtedly leader to Latin America market

What cities do you think LATAM will serve from MIA that DL won't serve from ATL? It's hard to see the case for something like CVG-MIA when that overflies ATL and really won't open up much in the way of new connecting flows. As I said way upthread, I think this makes MIA service from Florida and other points south of ATL more attractive. Those cities have much different geography than CVG.

LATAM already has an extensive network from Miami to secondary Brazil. Not that it needs feed, though, because it’s largely an O&D operation.

I suspect we will see LATAM Ecuador and LATAM Columbia return to Miami with the AA partnership gone.

DL CVG-MIA shouldn't be hard to believe, they already fly CVG-FLL daily

DL isn't going to buy LATAM, and not connect into its huge operation in MIA, that would be wasteful

flymco753 wrote:

If anything this will further validate MCO as a connecting point to South America for Delta. Expanding at MIA is pure speculation?

p

As posted at least 10 times on this thread, Ed explicitly said they plan on growing their presence in MIA.