MSPNWA
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:58 pm

Shot fired. You knew AA wasn't going to sit by idly. MIA isn't going to be the same level of gold mine for LATAM. And the BOS-LHR route is surely a poke at DL. Good for consumers though.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 13993
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:40 pm

gregn21 wrote:
tcaeyx wrote:
Not sure if this has already been reported, but LA increased LAX-SCL to daily and JFK-SCL to 10 weekly.

https://www.latam.com/es_cl/prensa/comunicados/LATAM-aumenta-vuelos-entre-Chile-y-Estados-Unidos-para-2020/


This should be the first of several LAX up-gauges. I would expect most LAX expansion will be covered using LA metal, considering DL’s gate constraints at LAX, especially during construction.


Agreed, but my expectations for LAX expansion are also somewhat tempered by the geography. Keep in mind that LAX-GRU is nearly as long as GRU-PRG.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
MAH4546
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:55 pm

mcogator wrote:
Seattle household income is double that of Miami. Seattle is also home to 3 Fortune 50 companies, Amazon, Microsoft, and Boeing, while South Florida only has one Fortune 100 company. South Florida does have a lot of retirement money looking to be spent, but DL won't have the business traffic they get in SEA.


South Florida is a huge business travel market. Fortune 500 companies is not the measurement of business travel. Specifically, South Florida has significantly more international business travel than Seattle. Household income is also not a simple measurement. There is far more wealth concentration in South Florida than Seattle.

And Boeing isn't based in Seattle.

You sound oddly bitter about something with your retirement joke, but people don't retire to South Florida anymore. Central Florida more that speed these days (and affordability).
a.
 
mcogator
Posts: 519
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:18 am

MAH4546 wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Seattle household income is double that of Miami. Seattle is also home to 3 Fortune 50 companies, Amazon, Microsoft, and Boeing, while South Florida only has one Fortune 100 company. South Florida does have a lot of retirement money looking to be spent, but DL won't have the business traffic they get in SEA.


South Florida is a huge business travel market. Fortune 500 companies is not the measurement of business travel. Specifically, South Florida has significantly more international business travel than Seattle. Household income is also not a simple measurement. There is far more wealth concentration in South Florida than Seattle.

And Boeing isn't based in Seattle.

You sound oddly bitter about something with your retirement joke, but people don't retire to South Florida anymore. Central Florida more that speed these days (and affordability).

Bitter? Retirement joke? People don't retire to South Florida anymore? I'm confused on those three points. In respect to business travel, I never mentioned international business travel in my post. Yes, South Florida has more wealth concentration, but that includes the area from Key Biscayne to Port St Lucie. The poster was stating Seattle wasn't much different than Miami, which in my opinion is incorrect. You seem to get defensive rather quick.
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:11 am

mcogator wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Seattle household income is double that of Miami. Seattle is also home to 3 Fortune 50 companies, Amazon, Microsoft, and Boeing, while South Florida only has one Fortune 100 company. South Florida does have a lot of retirement money looking to be spent, but DL won't have the business traffic they get in SEA.


South Florida is a huge business travel market. Fortune 500 companies is not the measurement of business travel. Specifically, South Florida has significantly more international business travel than Seattle. Household income is also not a simple measurement. There is far more wealth concentration in South Florida than Seattle.

And Boeing isn't based in Seattle.

You sound oddly bitter about something with your retirement joke, but people don't retire to South Florida anymore. Central Florida more that speed these days (and affordability).

Bitter? Retirement joke? People don't retire to South Florida anymore? I'm confused on those three points. In respect to business travel, I never mentioned international business travel in my post. Yes, South Florida has more wealth concentration, but that includes the area from Key Biscayne to Port St Lucie. The poster was stating Seattle wasn't much different than Miami, which in my opinion is incorrect. You seem to get defensive rather quick.


Seattle and Miami are totally different. Miami is in many ways the economic and commercial capital of Latin America. That drives a ton of traffic that macroeconomic rankings simply will not capture.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:15 am

mcogator wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Seattle household income is double that of Miami. Seattle is also home to 3 Fortune 50 companies, Amazon, Microsoft, and Boeing, while South Florida only has one Fortune 100 company. South Florida does have a lot of retirement money looking to be spent, but DL won't have the business traffic they get in SEA.


South Florida is a huge business travel market. Fortune 500 companies is not the measurement of business travel. Specifically, South Florida has significantly more international business travel than Seattle. Household income is also not a simple measurement. There is far more wealth concentration in South Florida than Seattle.

And Boeing isn't based in Seattle.

You sound oddly bitter about something with your retirement joke, but people don't retire to South Florida anymore. Central Florida more that speed these days (and affordability).

Bitter? Retirement joke? People don't retire to South Florida anymore? I'm confused on those three points. In respect to business travel, I never mentioned international business travel in my post. Yes, South Florida has more wealth concentration, but that includes the area from Key Biscayne to Port St Lucie. The poster was stating Seattle wasn't much different than Miami, which in my opinion is incorrect. You seem to get defensive rather quick.


I was "that poster" and I was *in no way* asserting anything with respect to the economies/businesses/etc of Seattle versus Miami. My comment was as to the position of DL at the airport.
 
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thewizbizman
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:15 am

Don't know if it has been said yet, but could we see both LATAM and DL route additional US services through Atlanta rather than Miami or south Floridian cities?
 
Prost
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:16 am

What is the largest investment of one airline by another? I imagine this is up there, but I’m frequently surprised when people mention some of the cross ownerships out there.
 
Lootess
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:14 am

mcogator wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Thomaas wrote:

There is a very big difference between what DL did at SEA and the current market situation in MIA. DL had a monopoly and used feed from AS to build their international portfolio out of SEA, and then built a domestic network to feed those flights. It is much easier to build a hub when you have a profitable market to build it around. The verdict is still out about BOS, as JetBlue is still much larger than DL and the "hub" hasn't proven itself so far.

DL at MIA would have no strong-hold, it would have to fight with AA tooth and nail in every single market. AA is a well established player in MIA as well as South America, that was before any partnership with LATAM. DL would unlikely dislodge AA's advantages there, and would most likely result in huge losses. Both airlines are large enough to sustain losses at a hub for quite some time, but you can bet AA would retaliate elsewhere as they have many more aircraft at their disposal.


Is MIA that different from SEA? I don't think so when you incorporate LATAM into the picture (which you have to). DL will have a huge presence to South America through LATAM, so arguably even better than SEA as it gets a stable international network and doesn't have to build it. In addition, DL has European JV flights to LHR, AMS, and CDG - it can build on those. Also, DL did not have a monopoly in SEA for international flights as they already had decent competition and faced an onslaught of TPAC competition as they took on the domestic expansion.

That being said, I don't think DL is going to dethrone AA by any stretch of the imagination. But, you can expect DL to grow and become a decent competitor.

Finally, AA will retaliate, but AA IMO is way off its game so its retaliation will probably fall flat (much like AS's attempt in SLC).

Seattle household income is double that of Miami. Seattle is also home to 3 Fortune 50 companies, Amazon, Microsoft, and Boeing, while South Florida only has one Fortune 100 company. South Florida does have a lot of retirement money looking to be spent, but DL won't have the business traffic they get in SEA.


I think DL will be okay in MIA without the dedicated Microsoft and Amazon check-in counters on the Skypriority side that they have in SEA.

A lot US companies including those three have business in South America, so a pitstop in MIA is not out of the question.
 
jumbojet
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 1:29 am

basically, I believe DL is in the drivers seat. They and LATAM will soon begin to execute their planned partnership. I think it will catch Anet and more importantly, AA off guard. No one at ANET and AA knows exactly what is about to unfold. But DL is not gonna hold back. They spent a lot of money to be #1 in the Americas so whatever the plan is, it will be interesting to watch it unfold.
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 1:53 am

jumbojet wrote:
basically, I believe DL is in the drivers seat. They and LATAM will soon begin to execute their planned partnership. I think it will catch Anet and more importantly, AA off guard. No one at ANET and AA knows exactly what is about to unfold. But DL is not gonna hold back. They spent a lot of money to be #1 in the Americas so whatever the plan is, it will be interesting to watch it unfold.
This is the kind of deep insight I have come to expect from Anet. Very eye opening. This gal/guy gets it. Absolute expert.
 
kondoo
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 2:26 am

It’s clearly a great move by delta taking away an aa partner, but let’s put down the Passport Plum Kool aid for a second and realize this JV isn’t a slam dunk. If anything, LATAM just rolled the dice in a pretty crazy way about future JV approval and the next two years.
Not to say they didn’t think all this through... but still.


Key paragraph here. LATAM thought they were going to be able to get the best of both worlds. They played that card 9 years or so ago when they merged and were deciding which alliance to choose. AA freaked out and kept throwing goodies at them for them to stay. LATAM did not realize AA was going to act so fast and remove their access beyond MIA (which frankly was what made LATAM become what they are right now) immediately after the announcement.
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:58 am

alfa164 wrote:

I doubt the approval process takes that long. Remember: it was not the U.S. that turned-down the AA-LA JV; it was the Chilean authorities. The story so far indicates they are more than happy with making DL part of a JV, and that roadblock was the only one holding back AA+LA. There is no reason to think the U.S. would change its position, so approval may come more quickly than most people expect.

Ignoring for a moment that JVs take time to negotiate before they’re even submitted (UA and AV have been at it for how long even with United’s controlling interest in Avianca?)
I think you’re forgetting that the DOT never ruled on the aa-la JV. So it wasn’t that it was or wasn’t turned down, but that it didn’t even rule on the topic because this JV requires individual Latin country approval before it went to the DOT.

I’m not sure how any story would indicate that a Chilean court is now “happy with making DL part of a JV”. It’s a court. Is Delta polling justices on the topic? They can get legal advice, and I’m sure they did, but that’s about it. The Chilean court ruled against the AA-LA JV and American had two flights to Chile at the time.
But my point above was never about the Latin approvals, as time consuming as those may be.

It was about the political risk LATAM is taking on JV approval in the US between a trump administration that delta hasn’t built much rapport with (I mean... the irony now that AAB of QR, 10% owner of LA, made that White House meeting when Ed Bastian couldn’t be bothered to interrupt a vacation is priceless) or a future administration that will likely be less pro-JV, especially a new JV that wouldn’t challenge the current #1 in North America - Latin America, but be the new #1 Per public statements by Delta.
The two can codeshare, yes. But while they wait/hope for a JV, LATAM is left with, at best, a very small Codeshare partner in their biggest US market, Miami. Significantly O&D as many have noted, yes, but I don’t think any of us know how many of those Saturday-only or less than daily markets can survive on LATAM with pure O&D alone or with significantly fewer Codeshare options From whatever Delta does in the next few months.
That codeshare can’t legally be coordinated. If Delta did add any Miami-Latin capacity Pre-JV, all it would do is hurt LATAM yields until they have a JV.

Is Delta really expecting to change any Significant corporate share in Miami with, let’s say, five new dots, inferior frequency, and a frequent stop in Atlanta?

Just saying this makes a lot more sense for Delta than it does for LATAM. They appear to have taken a very risky gamble on approval for a JV.
 
dmorbust
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 1:42 pm

JAMBOJET wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
basically, I believe DL is in the drivers seat. They and LATAM will soon begin to execute their planned partnership. I think it will catch Anet and more importantly, AA off guard. No one at ANET and AA knows exactly what is about to unfold. But DL is not gonna hold back. They spent a lot of money to be #1 in the Americas so whatever the plan is, it will be interesting to watch it unfold.


Well, to be clear. They can’t coordinate anything meaningful before a JV and that’s , at least, a year or two away and likely reviewed under a Warren or any other Democratic administration, quite publicly rather against these types of ventures. Especially one that is out there publicly giving the DOT great talking points about how they’ll be the new #1 in the market with the obvious goal of reducing competition, same as aa/LA would’ve had, I’m sure.

Meanwhile, Delta will be adding routes without any real coordination/pricing with LATAM. They can’t legally.

All the while, while they both wait for a JV approval, likely under a democratic administration generally against JVs, Delta will be building what will be, at best, a mini hub with limited connections vs the largest carrier in Miami that has all the Miami corporate contracts and the #1 position in MIA-Latin America before and after a DL/LA JV is approved (out of Miami). And oh yeah... latam just lost the biggest codeshare partner in Miami during that time while they both sit and wait.

So what happens when a democratic administration, after Delta starts overlapping LATAM routes and building in Miami, looks at creating a new monopoly that only grows in overlap if Delta expands enough to make a meaningful difference and help LATAM in Miami? Growing and overlapping with any international routes out of Miami by Delta will only make the approval more difficult.

So, what then? Delta doesn’t grow until a JV is approved to improve chances of DOT approval? And latam just waits and hopes?

It’s clearly a great move by delta taking away an aa partner, but let’s put down the Passport Plum Kool aid for a second and realize this JV isn’t a slam dunk. If anything, LATAM just rolled the dice in a pretty crazy way about future JV approval and the next two years.
Not to say they didn’t think all this through... but still.

As cranky mentioned in his article today, LATAM is making a rather risky move for this.

The biggest risk to this JV is a Warren or Sanders administration, potentially a Biden one but who knows... I hope Ed Bastian kept some extra cash on hand for political donations next year.
A rather ironic position he’s in hoping for quick JV approval from the trump administration after skipping meetings that Trump called on the biggest Delta lobbying issue, the ME3.


There are over 15 months left before a new administration might get sworn in. And a Democrat defeating Trump is far from a foregone conclusion. If I am DL + LATAM I submit my US JV application this month - there is one single overlap route so this should be a quick no-brainer for antritrust approval. Seriously, out of all the recent JV applications, can you think of an easier one with less overlap to approve?

If the DOT ultimately approved all recent JV applications (even AA + QF !) , this approval should be easy.
 
dmorbust
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 1:59 pm

I think what hasn't been noted is how this DL + LATAM play will eventually be huge for DL further cementing its position in the NYC market, and could be the final straw that breaks AA at JFK. Any corporate accounts in NY that stuck with AA thanks to South American needs could now defect to DL. Same with individuals. These can become tipping points, as LATAM opens up for DL all of JFK to Ecuador, Peru, Chile, more Brazil, and intra-South American travel.
 
JAMBOJET
Posts: 91
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 2:18 pm

dmorbust wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
basically, I believe DL is in the drivers seat. They and LATAM will soon begin to execute their planned partnership. I think it will catch Anet and more importantly, AA off guard. No one at ANET and AA knows exactly what is about to unfold. But DL is not gonna hold back. They spent a lot of money to be #1 in the Americas so whatever the plan is, it will be interesting to watch it unfold.


Well, to be clear. They can’t coordinate anything meaningful before a JV and that’s , at least, a year or two away and likely reviewed under a Warren or any other Democratic administration, quite publicly rather against these types of ventures. Especially one that is out there publicly giving the DOT great talking points about how they’ll be the new #1 in the market with the obvious goal of reducing competition, same as aa/LA would’ve had, I’m sure.

Meanwhile, Delta will be adding routes without any real coordination/pricing with LATAM. They can’t legally.

All the while, while they both wait for a JV approval, likely under a democratic administration generally against JVs, Delta will be building what will be, at best, a mini hub with limited connections vs the largest carrier in Miami that has all the Miami corporate contracts and the #1 position in MIA-Latin America before and after a DL/LA JV is approved (out of Miami). And oh yeah... latam just lost the biggest codeshare partner in Miami during that time while they both sit and wait.

So what happens when a democratic administration, after Delta starts overlapping LATAM routes and building in Miami, looks at creating a new monopoly that only grows in overlap if Delta expands enough to make a meaningful difference and help LATAM in Miami? Growing and overlapping with any international routes out of Miami by Delta will only make the approval more difficult.

So, what then? Delta doesn’t grow until a JV is approved to improve chances of DOT approval? And latam just waits and hopes?

It’s clearly a great move by delta taking away an aa partner, but let’s put down the Passport Plum Kool aid for a second and realize this JV isn’t a slam dunk. If anything, LATAM just rolled the dice in a pretty crazy way about future JV approval and the next two years.
Not to say they didn’t think all this through... but still.

As cranky mentioned in his article today, LATAM is making a rather risky move for this.

The biggest risk to this JV is a Warren or Sanders administration, potentially a Biden one but who knows... I hope Ed Bastian kept some extra cash on hand for political donations next year.
A rather ironic position he’s in hoping for quick JV approval from the trump administration after skipping meetings that Trump called on the biggest Delta lobbying issue, the ME3.


There are over 15 months left before a new administration might get sworn in. And a Democrat defeating Trump is far from a foregone conclusion. If I am DL + LATAM I submit my US JV application this month - there is one single overlap route so this should be a quick no-brainer for antritrust approval. Seriously, out of all the recent JV applications, can you think of an easier one with less overlap to approve?

If the DOT ultimately approved all recent JV applications (even AA + QF !) , this approval should be easy.

It’s worth noting that, per the Chilean court’s jurisdiction, Chile only, there was 1 overlapping route between AA and LATAM, one. Other Latin countries had the say about whether the JV was monopolistic in their country.
In recent memory; what’s the quickest timeline that a JV has been announced then filed and approved by DOT?
Then add all the Latin countries that require approval for this JV before DOT will likely consider the application.
Delta may easily get approval in three months for all I know. I’m not an expert and I freely admit that, but I just don’t think this is a slam dunk like some on here seem to believe.
Especially for a company like Delta that has squandered goodwill with the current administration and will likely have a major LATAM investor, Qatar, with something to say about it in Latin America. The bad blood between Delta and Qatar is hardly private.
 
onwFan
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:50 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
dmorbust wrote:
I think what hasn't been noted is how this DL + LATAM play will eventually be huge for DL further cementing its position in the NYC market, and could be the final straw that breaks AA at JFK. Any corporate accounts in NY that stuck with AA thanks to South American needs could now defect to DL. Same with individuals. These can become tipping points, as LATAM opens up for DL all of JFK to Ecuador, Peru, Chile, more Brazil, and intra-South American travel.


This, yes. AA has the most to lose at JFK. Perhaps the only thing that might remain is a JFK-GRU flight (with support from G3 and JL). Since DL will most probably launch JFK-EZE in partnership with LA, AA could choose to codeshare with AR. But AA also has a really huge presence in Argentina (without domestic LAN feed in EZE).

I am really interested to know what AR’s path forward is. Seems AR got screwed royally after paying all the SkyTeam fees for all these years... AR really needs to get in bed with AV and AA for feed within South America and at JFK & MIA respectively.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:13 pm

onwFan wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
dmorbust wrote:
I think what hasn't been noted is how this DL + LATAM play will eventually be huge for DL further cementing its position in the NYC market, and could be the final straw that breaks AA at JFK. Any corporate accounts in NY that stuck with AA thanks to South American needs could now defect to DL. Same with individuals. These can become tipping points, as LATAM opens up for DL all of JFK to Ecuador, Peru, Chile, more Brazil, and intra-South American travel.


This, yes. AA has the most to lose at JFK. Perhaps the only thing that might remain is a JFK-GRU flight (with support from G3 and JL). Since DL will most probably launch JFK-EZE in partnership with LA, AA could choose to codeshare with AR. But AA also has a really huge presence in Argentina (without domestic LAN feed in EZE).

I am really interested to know what AR’s path forward is. Seems AR got screwed royally after paying all the SkyTeam fees for all these years... AR really needs to get in bed with AV and AA for feed within South America and at JFK & MIA respectively.

I wouldn't worry too much about AR. With the new incompetent and no doubt corrupt leadership that they will almost certainly have with the new Government sworn in in December, AR will either go out of business (less likely), or be the private tool and playground for members of said Government, knowingly ignoring any of the few business possibilities that they may have. No collaborations with other airlines are likely, as these would hamper the corrupt practices sought. Just my predictions - but I fear I am not far from the truth.
 
User avatar
chepos
Posts: 6789
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:25 pm

onwFan wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
dmorbust wrote:
I think what hasn't been noted is how this DL + LATAM play will eventually be huge for DL further cementing its position in the NYC market, and could be the final straw that breaks AA at JFK. Any corporate accounts in NY that stuck with AA thanks to South American needs could now defect to DL. Same with individuals. These can become tipping points, as LATAM opens up for DL all of JFK to Ecuador, Peru, Chile, more Brazil, and intra-South American travel.


This, yes. AA has the most to lose at JFK. Perhaps the only thing that might remain is a JFK-GRU flight (with support from G3 and JL). Since DL will most probably launch JFK-EZE in partnership with LA, AA could choose to codeshare with AR. But AA also has a really huge presence in Argentina (without domestic LAN feed in EZE).

I am really interested to know what AR’s path forward is. Seems AR got screwed royally after paying all the SkyTeam fees for all these years... AR really needs to get in bed with AV and AA for feed within South America and at JFK & MIA respectively.


Doubt AA will drop JFK to codeshare with AR on the route. That seems highly unlikely


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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dcajet
Posts: 4117
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:31 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
dmorbust wrote:
I think what hasn't been noted is how this DL + LATAM play will eventually be huge for DL further cementing its position in the NYC market, and could be the final straw that breaks AA at JFK. Any corporate accounts in NY that stuck with AA thanks to South American needs could now defect to DL. Same with individuals. These can become tipping points, as LATAM opens up for DL all of JFK to Ecuador, Peru, Chile, more Brazil, and intra-South American travel.


This, yes. AA has the most to lose at JFK. Perhaps the only thing that might remain is a JFK-GRU flight (with support from G3 and JL). Since DL will most probably launch JFK-EZE in partnership with LA, AA could choose to codeshare with AR. But AA also has a really huge presence in Argentina (without domestic LAN feed in EZE).

I am really interested to know what AR’s path forward is. Seems AR got screwed royally after paying all the SkyTeam fees for all these years... AR really needs to get in bed with AV and AA for feed within South America and at JFK & MIA respectively.

I wouldn't worry too much about AR. With the new incompetent and no doubt corrupt leadership that they will almost certainly have with the new Government sworn in in December, AR will either go out of business (less likely), or be the private tool and playground for members of said Government, knowingly ignoring any of the few business possibilities that they may have. No collaborations with other airlines are likely, as these would hamper the corrupt practices sought. Just my predictions - but I fear I am not far from the truth.


Actually, Skyteam membership was obtained during the last Kirchner administration.
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
dcajet
Posts: 4117
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:34 pm

chepos wrote:
onwFan wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
dmorbust wrote:
I think what hasn't been noted is how this DL + LATAM play will eventually be huge for DL further cementing its position in the NYC market, and could be the final straw that breaks AA at JFK. Any corporate accounts in NY that stuck with AA thanks to South American needs could now defect to DL. Same with individuals. These can become tipping points, as LATAM opens up for DL all of JFK to Ecuador, Peru, Chile, more Brazil, and intra-South American travel.


This, yes. AA has the most to lose at JFK. Perhaps the only thing that might remain is a JFK-GRU flight (with support from G3 and JL). Since DL will most probably launch JFK-EZE in partnership with LA, AA could choose to codeshare with AR. But AA also has a really huge presence in Argentina (without domestic LAN feed in EZE).

I am really interested to know what AR’s path forward is. Seems AR got screwed royally after paying all the SkyTeam fees for all these years... AR really needs to get in bed with AV and AA for feed within South America and at JFK & MIA respectively.


Doubt AA will drop JFK to codeshare with AR on the route. That seems highly unlikely


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Exactly. Why would AA drop a very successful route, one on which they own pretty much the premium side of the marketplace?
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
YouGeeElWhy
Posts: 424
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 3:42 pm

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:35 pm

onwFan wrote:
This, yes. AA has the most to lose at JFK. Perhaps the only thing that might remain is a JFK-GRU flight (with support from G3 and JL). Since DL will most probably launch JFK-EZE in partnership with LA, AA could choose to codeshare with AR. But AA also has a really huge presence in Argentina (without domestic LAN feed in EZE).
LAN's domestic feed from EZE is nonexistent. AR is the one with domestic connectivity at EZE.

MalevTU134 wrote:
I wouldn't worry too much about AR. With the new incompetent and no doubt corrupt leadership that they will almost certainly have with the new Government sworn in in December, AR will either go out of business (less likely), or be the private tool and playground for members of said Government, knowingly ignoring any of the few business possibilities that they may have. No collaborations with other airlines are likely, as these would hamper the corrupt practices sought. Just my predictions - but I fear I am not far from the truth.
If they choose to make AR their plaything then it might make getting JV problematic for DL and LAN.
 
dcajet
Posts: 4117
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:05 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
onwFan wrote:
This, yes. AA has the most to lose at JFK. Perhaps the only thing that might remain is a JFK-GRU flight (with support from G3 and JL). Since DL will most probably launch JFK-EZE in partnership with LA, AA could choose to codeshare with AR. But AA also has a really huge presence in Argentina (without domestic LAN feed in EZE).
LAN's domestic feed from EZE is nonexistent. AR is the one with domestic connectivity at EZE.


LATAM Argentina has recently started some domestic flying from EZE, mostly to IGR, BRC & FTE. However this is mostly geared for the foreign traveler, not for the domestic traveler. As you well say, AR/AU are the only ones that can offer domestic connectivity at EZE that works for the local traveler as well.
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
jagraham
Posts: 924
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:08 pm

JAMBOJET wrote:
alfa164 wrote:

I doubt the approval process takes that long. Remember: it was not the U.S. that turned-down the AA-LA JV; it was the Chilean authorities. The story so far indicates they are more than happy with making DL part of a JV, and that roadblock was the only one holding back AA+LA. There is no reason to think the U.S. would change its position, so approval may come more quickly than most people expect.

Ignoring for a moment that JVs take time to negotiate before they’re even submitted (UA and AV have been at it for how long even with United’s controlling interest in Avianca?)
I think you’re forgetting that the DOT never ruled on the aa-la JV. So it wasn’t that it was or wasn’t turned down, but that it didn’t even rule on the topic because this JV requires individual Latin country approval before it went to the DOT.

I’m not sure how any story would indicate that a Chilean court is now “happy with making DL part of a JV”. It’s a court. Is Delta polling justices on the topic? They can get legal advice, and I’m sure they did, but that’s about it. The Chilean court ruled against the AA-LA JV and American had two flights to Chile at the time.
But my point above was never about the Latin approvals, as time consuming as those may be.

It was about the political risk LATAM is taking on JV approval in the US between a trump administration that delta hasn’t built much rapport with (I mean... the irony now that AAB of QR, 10% owner of LA, made that White House meeting when Ed Bastian couldn’t be bothered to interrupt a vacation is priceless) or a future administration that will likely be less pro-JV, especially a new JV that wouldn’t challenge the current #1 in North America - Latin America, but be the new #1 Per public statements by Delta.
The two can codeshare, yes. But while they wait/hope for a JV, LATAM is left with, at best, a very small Codeshare partner in their biggest US market, Miami. Significantly O&D as many have noted, yes, but I don’t think any of us know how many of those Saturday-only or less than daily markets can survive on LATAM with pure O&D alone or with significantly fewer Codeshare options From whatever Delta does in the next few months.
That codeshare can’t legally be coordinated. If Delta did add any Miami-Latin capacity Pre-JV, all it would do is hurt LATAM yields until they have a JV.

Is Delta really expecting to change any Significant corporate share in Miami with, let’s say, five new dots, inferior frequency, and a frequent stop in Atlanta?

Just saying this makes a lot more sense for Delta than it does for LATAM. They appear to have taken a very risky gamble on approval for a JV.


Delta did a big domestic route build in SEA. Nonstop flights to the top 15 metro areas except for Texas (DFW and IAH). I assume they knew AA would cut the LATAM cord in MIA sooner rather than later after LATAM went with DL. So there has to be a DL domestic route build in MIA in the near future. Others have mentioned gate space, which can be an issue; but that was a known commodity. Also, they can have LATAM fly some nonstops to ATL to address connectivity. Don't need a JV for that, just a codeshare.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:13 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
If they choose to make AR their plaything then it might make getting JV problematic for DL and LAN.


This. I think the DL/LATAM JV will take longer than two years to be approved for precisely this reason. If it has to be approved by all the Latin American countries before it can be submitted to the DOT, I can see the Peronist Argentine government being petty and taking their sweet time to give their approval if they perceive the JV to be detrimental to AR or even just disrespectful to AR's position with SkyTeam.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:48 pm

dcajet wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]

This, yes. AA has the most to lose at JFK. Perhaps the only thing that might remain is a JFK-GRU flight (with support from G3 and JL). Since DL will most probably launch JFK-EZE in partnership with LA, AA could choose to codeshare with AR. But AA also has a really huge presence in Argentina (without domestic LAN feed in EZE).

I am really interested to know what AR’s path forward is. Seems AR got screwed royally after paying all the SkyTeam fees for all these years... AR really needs to get in bed with AV and AA for feed within South America and at JFK & MIA respectively.

I wouldn't worry too much about AR. With the new incompetent and no doubt corrupt leadership that they will almost certainly have with the new Government sworn in in December, AR will either go out of business (less likely), or be the private tool and playground for members of said Government, knowingly ignoring any of the few business possibilities that they may have. No collaborations with other airlines are likely, as these would hamper the corrupt practices sought. Just my predictions - but I fear I am not far from the truth.


Actually, Skyteam membership was obtained during the last Kirchner administration.

That is correct, of course, but it could be said that it was in spite of the Kirchner administration and its cronies at the helm. AR made record losses, had hundreds of non-existant employees at managerial levels with high salaries, non-existant internal control systems, et cetera. It was a highly protectionist government that made life almost impossible for LAN and then LATAM and others. AR was practically the only remaining choice for SkyTeam in South America, with TAM, Avianca and COPA in Star Alliance and LAN in OneWorld. And the then government was happily playing the role of the delighted father of the ugly bride that was being proposed to, at last.
 
jumbojet
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:55 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
If they choose to make AR their plaything then it might make getting JV problematic for DL and LAN.


This. I think the DL/LATAM JV will take longer than two years to be approved for precisely this reason. If it has to be approved by all the Latin American countries before it can be submitted to the DOT, I can see the Peronist Argentine government being petty and taking their sweet time to give their approval if they perceive the JV to be detrimental to AR or even just disrespectful to AR's position with SkyTeam.


Money talks.....
 
onwFan
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:06 pm

dcajet wrote:
chepos wrote:
onwFan wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]

This, yes. AA has the most to lose at JFK. Perhaps the only thing that might remain is a JFK-GRU flight (with support from G3 and JL). Since DL will most probably launch JFK-EZE in partnership with LA, AA could choose to codeshare with AR. But AA also has a really huge presence in Argentina (without domestic LAN feed in EZE).

I am really interested to know what AR’s path forward is. Seems AR got screwed royally after paying all the SkyTeam fees for all these years... AR really needs to get in bed with AV and AA for feed within South America and at JFK & MIA respectively.


Doubt AA will drop JFK to codeshare with AR on the route. That seems highly unlikely


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Exactly. Why would AA drop a very successful route, one on which they own pretty much the premium side of the marketplace?


Sorry if it wasn’t clear - I wasn’t necessarily suggesting they would drop it, I was thinking they could also codeshare with each other’s flights on JFK-EZE to cement their presence in the wake of DL/LA’s competition.

A partnership with AR could also get AA into Argentina’s good books. AA would probably have more to offer AR than vice versa (AR could really do with some feed at MIA and JFK).
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:07 pm

jumbojet wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
If they choose to make AR their plaything then it might make getting JV problematic for DL and LAN.


This. I think the DL/LATAM JV will take longer than two years to be approved for precisely this reason. If it has to be approved by all the Latin American countries before it can be submitted to the DOT, I can see the Peronist Argentine government being petty and taking their sweet time to give their approval if they perceive the JV to be detrimental to AR or even just disrespectful to AR's position with SkyTeam.


Money talks.....

Not with the Kirchners in Argentina, it doesn't.

Ooooh, you mean money in their pockets??? Oh, now THAT is another issue...
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5847
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:38 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
If they choose to make AR their plaything then it might make getting JV problematic for DL and LAN.


This. I think the DL/LATAM JV will take longer than two years to be approved for precisely this reason. If it has to be approved by all the Latin American countries before it can be submitted to the DOT, I can see the Peronist Argentine government being petty and taking their sweet time to give their approval if they perceive the JV to be detrimental to AR or even just disrespectful to AR's position with SkyTeam.


AR isn't big enough in the U.S. to have any meaningful commercial influence on a DL/LA jv application. The DOJ's horizontal market criteria will dismiss it completely.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:23 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
If they choose to make AR their plaything then it might make getting JV problematic for DL and LAN.


This. I think the DL/LATAM JV will take longer than two years to be approved for precisely this reason. If it has to be approved by all the Latin American countries before it can be submitted to the DOT, I can see the Peronist Argentine government being petty and taking their sweet time to give their approval if they perceive the JV to be detrimental to AR or even just disrespectful to AR's position with SkyTeam.


AR isn't big enough in the U.S. to have any meaningful commercial influence on a DL/LA jv application. The DOJ's horizontal market criteria will dismiss it completely.


The DOJ has nothing to do with Argentina approving the JV.
 
Thibault973
Posts: 234
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:12 pm

Several KLM officials were in Brazil today to celebrate KL 100th birthday and they gave some pretty interesting interviews. Apparently as much as 25% of AF and KL passengers in Brazil are connecting beyond GRU, GIG and FOR on G3 flights (up from 7% in 2014). AFKL will offer 35% more seats to Brazil in S20 compared to S16.

According to Seth van Straten, AFKL's commercial director, their cooperation with G3 is here to stay, he is quoted and DL"s investment in competitor JJ will not affect
AFKL relationship with G3.

Sorry, link only in portuguese :
https://www.panrotas.com.br/aviacao/emp ... 68116.html
https://www.mercadoeeventos.com.br/noti ... l-e-delta/
 
gregn21
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:13 pm

Why is DL expansion at MIA such a foregone conclusion? Considering the larger DL presence at FLL, I suspect they have considered moving LATAM ops from MIA to FLL. It would be easier to expand DL ops at FLL than MIA and there is already way more existing feed. Not to mention, there is quite a bit more room for gate expansion at FLL than at MIA. The way I see it, distributing LATAM's MIA ops between ATL and FLL for connections and South Florida O&D respectively makes the most sense in this situation.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3371
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:33 pm

gregn21 wrote:
Why is DL expansion at MIA such a foregone conclusion? Considering the larger DL presence at FLL, I suspect they have considered moving LATAM ops from MIA to FLL. It would be easier to expand DL ops at FLL than MIA and there is already way more existing feed. Not to mention, there is quite a bit more room for gate expansion at FLL than at MIA. The way I see it, distributing LATAM's MIA ops between ATL and FLL for connections and South Florida O&D respectively makes the most sense in this situation.


Yields between MIA and South America (especially deep South America) are significantly higher. Virtually no South American business pax are interested in flying to FLL plus FLL is a dump facility wise.
 
User avatar
Miami
Posts: 6022
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:55 pm

gregn21 wrote:
Why is DL expansion at MIA such a foregone conclusion? Considering the larger DL presence at FLL, I suspect they have considered moving LATAM ops from MIA to FLL. It would be easier to expand DL ops at FLL than MIA and there is already way more existing feed. Not to mention, there is quite a bit more room for gate expansion at FLL than at MIA. The way I see it, distributing LATAM's MIA ops between ATL and FLL for connections and South Florida O&D respectively makes the most sense in this situation.


LOL. Moving from MIA to FLL? Never will happen.

Expand at FLL? Good luck. They are jammed packed. And over MIA? No way.
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
doug
Posts: 702
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:59 pm

Delta’s FLL flights aren’t leaps and bounds ahead of MIA if FLL has more than 15 daily flights more than MIA right now I’d be surprised
 
HunterATL
Posts: 21
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:06 pm

Argentina is not part of the JV. Delta and LAN Argentina can only seek to have a joint venture if Argentina agrees to an open skies bilateral with the United States, which it has not. Delta's relationship with LAN Argentina will only be a codeshare for the foreseeable future.
 
onwFan
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:11 pm

Thibault973 wrote:
Several KLM officials were in Brazil today to celebrate KL 100th birthday and they gave some pretty interesting interviews. Apparently as much as 25% of AF and KL passengers in Brazil are connecting beyond GRU, GIG and FOR on G3 flights (up from 7% in 2014). AFKL will offer 35% more seats to Brazil in S20 compared to S16.

According to Seth van Straten, AFKL's commercial director, their cooperation with G3 is here to stay, he is quoted and DL"s investment in competitor JJ will not affect
AFKL relationship with G3.

Sorry, link only in portuguese :
https://www.panrotas.com.br/aviacao/emp ... 68116.html
https://www.mercadoeeventos.com.br/noti ... l-e-delta/


Excellent way to fragment frequent flier loyalty! What was all that about 'The Alliance of the Americas'?
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2147
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:10 pm

gregn21 wrote:
Why is DL expansion at MIA such a foregone conclusion? Considering the larger DL presence at FLL, I suspect they have considered moving LATAM ops from MIA to FLL. It would be easier to expand DL ops at FLL than MIA and there is already way more existing feed. Not to mention, there is quite a bit more room for gate expansion at FLL than at MIA. The way I see it, distributing LATAM's MIA ops between ATL and FLL for connections and South Florida O&D respectively makes the most sense in this situation.


Because, if you looked on virtually ANY page of this thread, is the quote of Bastian STATING in no uncertain terms of an expansion at MIA. So that is why its a foregone conclusion, because DL said it.
 
HunterATL
Posts: 21
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:20 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
gregn21 wrote:
Why is DL expansion at MIA such a foregone conclusion? Considering the larger DL presence at FLL, I suspect they have considered moving LATAM ops from MIA to FLL. It would be easier to expand DL ops at FLL than MIA and there is already way more existing feed. Not to mention, there is quite a bit more room for gate expansion at FLL than at MIA. The way I see it, distributing LATAM's MIA ops between ATL and FLL for connections and South Florida O&D respectively makes the most sense in this situation.


Because, if you looked on virtually ANY page of this thread, is the quote of Bastian STATING in no uncertain terms of an expansion at MIA. So that is why its a foregone conclusion, because DL said it.


It has also been reported that Delta executives are meeting with representatives of Miami International this week to discuss increased facilities at the airport.
 
User avatar
Miami
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:41 pm

HunterATL wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
gregn21 wrote:
Why is DL expansion at MIA such a foregone conclusion? Considering the larger DL presence at FLL, I suspect they have considered moving LATAM ops from MIA to FLL. It would be easier to expand DL ops at FLL than MIA and there is already way more existing feed. Not to mention, there is quite a bit more room for gate expansion at FLL than at MIA. The way I see it, distributing LATAM's MIA ops between ATL and FLL for connections and South Florida O&D respectively makes the most sense in this situation.


Because, if you looked on virtually ANY page of this thread, is the quote of Bastian STATING in no uncertain terms of an expansion at MIA. So that is why its a foregone conclusion, because DL said it.


It has also been reported that Delta executives are meeting with representatives of Miami International this week to discuss increased facilities at the airport.


Link?
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
dcajet
Posts: 4117
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:04 am

Ed Bastian was in Santiago yesterday meeting with LATAM's top brass.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3FxCF6B6RN/
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
HunterATL
Posts: 21
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:06 am

Miami wrote:
HunterATL wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Because, if you looked on virtually ANY page of this thread, is the quote of Bastian STATING in no uncertain terms of an expansion at MIA. So that is why its a foregone conclusion, because DL said it.


It has also been reported that Delta executives are meeting with representatives of Miami International this week to discuss increased facilities at the airport.


Link?


Gary Leff from A View from the Wing reported the meeting in response to an article on https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-eye ... rtnership/.
 
dcajet
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:14 am

HunterATL wrote:
Argentina is not part of the JV. Delta and LAN Argentina can only seek to have a joint venture if Argentina agrees to an open skies bilateral with the United States, which it has not. Delta's relationship with LAN Argentina will only be a codeshare for the foreseeable future.


Of what JV are you talking about? AFAIK the AA/LA is dead and a potential DL/LA is just, well, pie in the sky right now.

I did not know that an Open Skies bilateral was a pre requisite sine qua non for a JBA/JV. For the record, Argentina and the US just (June) signed a new bilateral which removed any restrictions on frequency and capacity between the 2 countries. It replaced the 1985 one

https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/06/27/arg ... -capacity/

https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-New ... strictions
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
HunterATL
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:05 am

dcajet wrote:
HunterATL wrote:
Argentina is not part of the JV. Delta and LAN Argentina can only seek to have a joint venture if Argentina agrees to an open skies bilateral with the United States, which it has not. Delta's relationship with LAN Argentina will only be a codeshare for the foreseeable future.


Of what JV are you talking about? AFAIK the AA/LA is dead and a potential DL/LA is just, well, pie in the sky right now.

I did not know that an Open Skies bilateral was a pre requisite sine qua non for a JBA/JV. For the record, Argentina and the US just (June) signed a new bilateral which removed any restrictions on frequency and capacity between the 2 countries. It replaced the 1985 one

https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/06/27/arg ... -capacity/

https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-New ... strictions


I assumed people would understand that I was referring to the JV application LAN and Delta began preparing this week in Santiago. I apologize if that was not clear.

DOT requires an open-skies agreement as a prerequisite to antitrust immunity. See DOT Final Order 2009-7-10 at 2 (2009) ("Under the Department's established policy, the existence of an 'open-skies' regulatory framework between the U.S. and the foreign carriers’ homelands is a necessary predicate to our consideration of requests for antitrust immunity."). Although the statute does not require open skies, the statute does require DOT to find expressly that the immunity is in the public interest. DOT policy is that antitrust immunity without open skies is not in the public interest. See id.

Although I have not read the amendment to the bilateral with Argentina, it is apparently not considered an open skies agreement. See https://www.state.gov/open-skies-partners/ (identifying open-skies agreements with the United States); https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... ng-applied (same). Delta apparently agrees as it stated in the investor call that it may not seek a joint venture with LAN Argentina at this time. I do not know the deficiency, but I suspect it relates to fifth-freedom rights. That is a pure guess. And it is possible that DOT may conclude in the future that it does meet the requirements of an open-skies agreement, much like the decision regarding the bilateral with Japan even though it restricts access to Haneda.
 
dcajet
Posts: 4117
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:48 am

HunterATL wrote:
dcajet wrote:
HunterATL wrote:
Argentina is not part of the JV. Delta and LAN Argentina can only seek to have a joint venture if Argentina agrees to an open skies bilateral with the United States, which it has not. Delta's relationship with LAN Argentina will only be a codeshare for the foreseeable future.


Of what JV are you talking about? AFAIK the AA/LA is dead and a potential DL/LA is just, well, pie in the sky right now.

I did not know that an Open Skies bilateral was a pre requisite sine qua non for a JBA/JV. For the record, Argentina and the US just (June) signed a new bilateral which removed any restrictions on frequency and capacity between the 2 countries. It replaced the 1985 one

https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/06/27/arg ... -capacity/

https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-New ... strictions


I assumed people would understand that I was referring to the JV application LAN and Delta began preparing this week in Santiago. I apologize if that was not clear.

DOT requires an open-skies agreement as a prerequisite to antitrust immunity. See DOT Final Order 2009-7-10 at 2 (2009) ("Under the Department's established policy, the existence of an 'open-skies' regulatory framework between the U.S. and the foreign carriers’ homelands is a necessary predicate to our consideration of requests for antitrust immunity."). Although the statute does not require open skies, the statute does require DOT to find expressly that the immunity is in the public interest. DOT policy is that antitrust immunity without open skies is not in the public interest. See id.

Although I have not read the amendment to the bilateral with Argentina, it is apparently not considered an open skies agreement. See https://www.state.gov/open-skies-partners/ (identifying open-skies agreements with the United States); https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... ng-applied (same). Delta apparently agrees as it stated in the investor call that it may not seek a joint venture with LAN Argentina at this time. I do not know the deficiency, but I suspect it relates to fifth-freedom rights. That is a pure guess. And it is possible that DOT may conclude in the future that it does meet the requirements of an open-skies agreement, much like the decision regarding the bilateral with Japan even though it restricts access to Haneda.


Interesting. From Argentina's end, the words "Open Skies Air Services Agreement" are just the equivalent of political kryptonite for some there. Airline unions and certain politicians are deathly opposed to any such agreement and they believe that the new bilateral is an open skies agreement in everything but in name. Hell was raised by the unions at Aerolineas Argentinas when the US-Argentina bilateral was announced... Coincidentally, the pilots' union at AR has called for a strike. Pilots are walking out of their jobs this coming weekend, Oct. 5th & 6th.
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1153
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Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:12 am

So Delta said they will grow in Miami. There's growth and then there's GROWTH. I see it being marginal growth. A few gates. 10-20 flights a day added incrementally over the next 18 months or so is my guess. Ho hum really.

Another point, perhaps its been mentioned but i feel it should be mentioned again. Delta has been good to its weaker partners. Where was Gol when they first got involved with Delta versus now? Virgin Atlantic? Delta has helped KAL as far back as the 1990s when KAL were crashing every year. LATAM will benefit greatly from its association with Delta.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3371
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:21 am

SteelChair wrote:
Another point, perhaps its been mentioned but i feel it should be mentioned again. Delta has been good to its weaker partners. Where was Gol when they first got involved with Delta versus now? Virgin Atlantic? Delta has helped KAL as far back as the 1990s when KAL were crashing every year. LATAM will benefit greatly from its association with Delta.


G3 is still unprofitable
VS is still unprofitable
VA is barely profitable
AM is unprofitable
AF is unprofitable
The jury is still out on KE
KL is profitable but it always was.

DL does not have this great track record you speak of.
 
Atlwarrior
Posts: 422
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:42 am

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:39 am

JAMBOJET wrote:
dmorbust wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:

Well, to be clear. They can’t coordinate anything meaningful before a JV and that’s , at least, a year or two away and likely reviewed under a Warren or any other Democratic administration, quite publicly rather against these types of ventures. Especially one that is out there publicly giving the DOT great talking points about how they’ll be the new #1 in the market with the obvious goal of reducing competition, same as aa/LA would’ve had, I’m sure.

Meanwhile, Delta will be adding routes without any real coordination/pricing with LATAM. They can’t legally.

All the while, while they both wait for a JV approval, likely under a democratic administration generally against JVs, Delta will be building what will be, at best, a mini hub with limited connections vs the largest carrier in Miami that has all the Miami corporate contracts and the #1 position in MIA-Latin America before and after a DL/LA JV is approved (out of Miami). And oh yeah... latam just lost the biggest codeshare partner in Miami during that time while they both sit and wait.

So what happens when a democratic administration, after Delta starts overlapping LATAM routes and building in Miami, looks at creating a new monopoly that only grows in overlap if Delta expands enough to make a meaningful difference and help LATAM in Miami? Growing and overlapping with any international routes out of Miami by Delta will only make the approval more difficult.

So, what then? Delta doesn’t grow until a JV is approved to improve chances of DOT approval? And latam just waits and hopes?

It’s clearly a great move by delta taking away an aa partner, but let’s put down the Passport Plum Kool aid for a second and realize this JV isn’t a slam dunk. If anything, LATAM just rolled the dice in a pretty crazy way about future JV approval and the next two years.
Not to say they didn’t think all this through... but still.

As cranky mentioned in his article today, LATAM is making a rather risky move for this.

The biggest risk to this JV is a Warren or Sanders administration, potentially a Biden one but who knows... I hope Ed Bastian kept some extra cash on hand for political donations next year.
A rather ironic position he’s in hoping for quick JV approval from the trump administration after skipping meetings that Trump called on the biggest Delta lobbying issue, the ME3.


There are over 15 months left before a new administration might get sworn in. And a Democrat defeating Trump is far from a foregone conclusion. If I am DL + LATAM I submit my US JV application this month - there is one single overlap route so this should be a quick no-brainer for antritrust approval. Seriously, out of all the recent JV applications, can you think of an easier one with less overlap to approve?

If the DOT ultimately approved all recent JV applications (even AA + QF !) , this approval should be easy.

It’s worth noting that, per the Chilean court’s jurisdiction, Chile only, there was 1 overlapping route between AA and LATAM, one. Other Latin countries had the say about whether the JV was monopolistic in their country.
In recent memory; what’s the quickest timeline that a JV has been announced then filed and approved by DOT?
Then add all the Latin countries that require approval for this JV before DOT will likely consider the application.
Delta may easily get approval in three months for all I know. I’m not an expert and I freely admit that, but I just don’t think this is a slam dunk like some on here seem to believe.
Especially for a company like Delta that has squandered goodwill with the current administration and will likely have a major LATAM investor, Qatar, with something to say about it in Latin America. The bad blood between Delta and Qatar is hardly private.


Isn't one of Delta previous executive head of the FAA now, I don't think that is a squandered goodwill with the current administration.
 
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Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:45 am

usflyer msp wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Another point, perhaps its been mentioned but i feel it should be mentioned again. Delta has been good to its weaker partners. Where was Gol when they first got involved with Delta versus now? Virgin Atlantic? Delta has helped KAL as far back as the 1990s when KAL were crashing every year. LATAM will benefit greatly from its association with Delta.


G3 is still unprofitable
VS is still unprofitable
VA is barely profitable
AM is unprofitable
AF is unprofitable
The jury is still out on KE
KL is profitable but it always was.

DL does not have this great track record you speak of.


Yet DL is profitable. DL must believe 1) that it’s JV partners are helping the profitability of the DL network and/or 2) that in the long run it’s partners will be profitable. ROI could come from both.

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