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VTCIE
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Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:55 pm

Now that Oneworld will lose its only Latin American member, thanks to Ed Bastian & Co., what can it do to avoid having a vacuum in Latin America? Now, Star has AV and CM; SkyTeam has AM and AR (of which only the former is in DL’s good books); with Oneworld, however, LATAM was all it had—it was enough, actually. But now it is gone in a flash.

Is AD a good fit for Oneworld? If G3 (Gol) is Ryanair, AD is more like Norwegian, as it offers a premium product on its A330s and A330neos, and is expanding very nicely beyond Brazil. G3 is much more poorly positioned to join an alliance, as it is an all-737 airline and operates almost exclusively within Brazil. (G3 might strike up some sort of agreement with UA/AV to get back some of what it has lost from DL.)

However, does AD have to cut ties with TAP to join Oneworld, or is that not necessary? An airline can be a long-standing partner of another in a rival alliance: look at CA/CX, UK/AI/SQ, etc.
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Ishrion
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:03 pm

Well... they currently codeshare with JetBlue, TAP, Ethiopian, Turkish, and United, so... Star seems pretty fit.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:10 pm

I dont see a reason for them to. This is a blow to AA and OneWorld, but AA still has the trump card for Latin America: Miami.

Theyll be down but certainly not out.
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Polot
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:17 pm

United has a 8% stake in Azul (that A.net has seemingly forgotten based on some of the discussion I have seen here the past day)...so I wouldn’t hold my breath.
 
LatinAirliner
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:20 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Well... they currently codeshare with JetBlue, TAP, Ethiopian, Turkish, and United, so... Star seems pretty fit.


And they just signed codeshare with Avianca last week.
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VCy
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:21 pm

Maybe AR would be a better fit? AA could work with the Argentine government to restructure / invest in the troubled national career.
 
VCy
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:22 pm

Maybe AR would be a better fit? AA could work with the Argentine government to restructure / invest in the troubled national career.
 
Kilgen
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:34 pm

Also they have signed codeshare agreements with Copa as well.
 
airbazar
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:37 pm

Does OneWorld need a LatinAmerican member? Does anyone need a Latin American member? TAM has been with both *A and OW after the merger with LAN, and now apparently going to ST. We shall see how long that will last. It seems to me that at least as far as Brazil goes no one really wants or needs one.
 
TWA85
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:38 pm

An idea AA could do is partner with GOL in Brazil, SkY Airline in Chile and Peru, and Viva Columbia/Peru in Colombia and Peru. AA could go as far as purchasing large stakes in these small yet growing airlines and use their shareholder influence to transform them into hybrid carriers that would better fit AA's full service business model. After that these carriers (with AA's help) could develop their route networks between each other's home country's. At the very least, AA needs to code share with these airlines.
 
TWA85
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:45 pm

An idea AA could do is partner with GOL in Brazil, SkY Airline in Chile and Peru, and Viva Columbia/Peru in Colombia and Peru. AA could go as far as purchasing large stakes in these small yet growing airlines and use their shareholder influence to transform them into hybrid carriers that would better fit AA's full service business model. After that these carriers (with AA's help) could develop their route networks between each other's home country's. At the very least, AA needs to code share with these airlines.

The problem with Azul is that as already mentioned, UA owns a stake in them and likely will not relinquish it. UA needs Azul more than AA and will likely fight harder to preserve its partnership with Azul.

The problem with AR is that AA is not in a position to invest in a financially troubled airline that could become a money pit for AA very quickly. AA would be better off attempting to leverage SKY Airline's and GOL's Argentine networks via SCL and GRU.
 
JJ777
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:47 pm

AA will probably sign a codeshare agreement with G3 once the LA-OW divorce is ironed out.

As for AD, if UA decides to counter DL, perhaps they could acquire a bigger stake in AD and push them to join *A. Well, if they're brave enough, they could even take on AV.

Anyway, DL has pretty much sealed prime access to Latin America for the next decades.
 
VTCIE
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:15 pm

It seems that AD is best suited for UA/AV/Star, given its partnerships. But there is no other Latin American full-service airline that has the calibre of AV/CM, AM/AR, LA and AD. Whatever American does will benefit only American. In the greater interests of the Oneworld alliance, especially Iberia, which Latin American airline can join?
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MIflyer12
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:22 pm

TWA85 wrote:
An idea AA could do is partner with GOL in Brazil, SkY Airline in Chile and Peru, and Viva Columbia/Peru in Colombia and Peru. AA could go as far as purchasing large stakes in these small yet growing airlines and use their shareholder influence to transform them into hybrid carriers that would better fit AA's full service business model. After that these carriers (with AA's help) could develop their route networks between each other's home country's. At the very least, AA needs to code share with these airlines.


AA has too much debt already and is trying to reduce CAPEX. Don't expect it to spend much $ on equity stakes of foreign carriers.

IMHO AA doesn't need to change its Latin America strategy. It's still going to be #2 USA-LatAm. MIA, DFW and LAX are great hub locations for LatAm traffic.
 
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chepos
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:29 pm

VTCIE wrote:
It seems that AD is best suited for UA/AV/Star, given its partnerships. But there is no other Latin American full-service airline that has the calibre of AV/CM, AM/AR, LA and AD. Whatever American does will benefit only American. In the greater interests of the Oneworld alliance, especially Iberia, which Latin American airline can join?


Iberia will be fine, IB does not need a whole lot of feed to make flights between big cities in Latin America and Spain/Europe to work. Iberia is a brand that is extremely well recognized in the Americas and has served these markets for years. I highly doubt routes like EZE/GRU/SCL/BOG/LIM etc depend on much feed from the South America side to work.


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kipfilet
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:46 pm

VCy wrote:
Maybe AR would be a better fit? AA could work with the Argentine government to restructure / invest in the troubled national career.

Given current and expected future political conditions, it is hard to believe that any foreign private investor would want anything to do with the Argentinian government.
 
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cathay747
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:15 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
TWA85 wrote:
An idea AA could do is partner with GOL in Brazil, SkY Airline in Chile and Peru, and Viva Columbia/Peru in Colombia and Peru. AA could go as far as purchasing large stakes in these small yet growing airlines and use their shareholder influence to transform them into hybrid carriers that would better fit AA's full service business model. After that these carriers (with AA's help) could develop their route networks between each other's home country's. At the very least, AA needs to code share with these airlines.


AA has too much debt already and is trying to reduce CAPEX. Don't expect it to spend much $ on equity stakes of foreign carriers.

IMHO AA doesn't need to change its Latin America strategy. It's still going to be #2 USA-LatAm. MIA, DFW and LAX are great hub locations for LatAm traffic.


I agree with your views...except you saying that AA is #2? If AA is #2 US/LatAm then who pray tell is #1? AA has been the 900lb. gorilla in the US/LatAm market for years and as far as I know also #1.

But yes, I believe AA should save it's $$$ to invest in ORGANIC growth in LatAm and at the most establish a code-share with Gol for domestic access in Brasil, which if I'm not mistaken is the largest LatAm market, once DL divests its stake (and presumably the code-share as well). They don't need to buy a stake in any LatAm airline.
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LatinAirliner
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:23 pm

chepos wrote:
VTCIE wrote:
It seems that AD is best suited for UA/AV/Star, given its partnerships. But there is no other Latin American full-service airline that has the calibre of AV/CM, AM/AR, LA and AD. Whatever American does will benefit only American. In the greater interests of the Oneworld alliance, especially Iberia, which Latin American airline can join?


Iberia will be fine, IB does not need a whole lot of feed to make flights between big cities in Latin America and Spain/Europe to work. Iberia is a brand that is extremely well recognized in the Americas and has served these markets for years. I highly doubt routes like EZE/GRU/SCL/BOG/LIM etc depend on much feed from the South America side to work.


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At least Iberia depends a lot from Avianca in BOG, as Avianca depends a lot from Iberia in MAD, they have had a very strong codeshare for years. I don't know what Iberia will be doing in LIM, they actually depend a lot from Latam in LIM.
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solracfunk14
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:52 am

Ain't happening, the CEO already said no for Star Alliance and have no reason to join oneworld.

If happens, will be Star Alliance Connecting Partner, Azul runs away from the costs of being an SA member.

Before asks, AD employee and former O6
 
xiaotung
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:43 am

solracfunk14 wrote:
Ain't happening, the CEO already said no for Star Alliance and have no reason to join oneworld.

If happens, will be Star Alliance Connecting Partner, Azul runs away from the costs of being an SA member.

Before asks, AD employee and former O6


That was before. Was it before the demise of O6 or after, I don't know. Now the dynamics have changed again. G3 would have started to look for a new partner. AD would be thinking hard what they would do to react.
 
716131
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:50 am

How about AV leaves Star for OW if AA interested in acquiring stake in AV? But, is there any Star Alliance airlines that have stake in AV?
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xiaotung
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:53 am

SQ789 wrote:
How about AV leaves Star for OW if AA interested in acquiring stake in AV? But, is there any SA airlines that have stake in AV?


UA technically has control over AV. This is not going to happen.
 
716131
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:53 am

VCy wrote:
Maybe AR would be a better fit? AA could work with the Argentine government to restructure / invest in the troubled national career.

That sounds like a good idea. Because LATAM has another affiliate in Argentina and that's a shame for having 2 airlines in the same alliance. In other words, AA could also do following suit in AV if any airlines from Star did not buy stake in AV.
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:59 am

LatinAirliner wrote:
chepos wrote:
VTCIE wrote:
It seems that AD is best suited for UA/AV/Star, given its partnerships. But there is no other Latin American full-service airline that has the calibre of AV/CM, AM/AR, LA and AD. Whatever American does will benefit only American. In the greater interests of the Oneworld alliance, especially Iberia, which Latin American airline can join?


Iberia will be fine, IB does not need a whole lot of feed to make flights between big cities in Latin America and Spain/Europe to work. Iberia is a brand that is extremely well recognized in the Americas and has served these markets for years. I highly doubt routes like EZE/GRU/SCL/BOG/LIM etc depend on much feed from the South America side to work.


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At least Iberia depends a lot from Avianca in BOG, as Avianca depends a lot from Iberia in MAD, they have had a very strong codeshare for years. I don't know what Iberia will be doing in LIM, they actually depend a lot from Latam in LIM.


As discussed in another thread, LA intends to maintain its existing partnerships with QF, IB and BA.

Qantas have already confirmed that there will be no change in the QF-LA partnership, although interestingly nothing from IAG yet.
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716131
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 4:58 am

xiaotung wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
How about AV leaves Star for OW if AA interested in acquiring stake in AV? But, is there any SA airlines that have stake in AV?


UA technically has control over AV. This is not going to happen.

I see. UA did control on AV and they also control CM as well. OW is getting weaker in Latin America after LATAM's exit.
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OB1504
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:48 am

SQ789 wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
How about AV leaves Star for OW if AA interested in acquiring stake in AV? But, is there any SA airlines that have stake in AV?


UA technically has control over AV. This is not going to happen.

I see. UA did control on AV and they also control CM as well. OW is getting weaker in Latin America after LATAM's exit.


I thought United didn’t have a stake in Copa anymore? Given that having Avianca and Copa in the same alliance is a little redundant, I wonder if oneworld wouldn’t be able to convince Copa to switch.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:18 pm

Well, here’s how all of the alliances rank in Latin America:

Skyteam:
Aerolíneas Argentinas
Aeromexico
LATAM (QATAR still owns 10%, not sure how that’s going to go over...)

Oneworld:
American would be their closest thing. Then again, I should be adding DL’s Atlanta hub by that standard.

Star Alliance:
Copa
Avianca

In the before picture, Star most certainly would have had the most flights to and through Latin America. But now, it will probably be Skyteam.

As for Azul joining Oneworld, they’d never abandon another Neeleman airline (TAP).
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Gregd75
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:13 pm

Gol has a lounge network and the inflight experience is nothing like Ryanair.

I think the comparison of Gol to Ryanair is wrong.

If I had to, I'd compare Gol to Westjet or AerLingus.

And I’d leave this final thought. Admittedly they don’t have the route network of LATAM long haul, but their regional flying is far superior to LATAM.

LATAM is mediocre at best. Gol is fun and service oriented.
 
NorthTexAAs
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:02 pm

VCy wrote:
Maybe AR would be a better fit? AA could work with the Argentine government to restructure / invest in the troubled national career.


Then-AMR invested in 1997 and sent management down to help out. It didn't go well...
 
onwFan
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:26 pm

xiaotung wrote:
solracfunk14 wrote:
Ain't happening, the CEO already said no for Star Alliance and have no reason to join oneworld.

If happens, will be Star Alliance Connecting Partner, Azul runs away from the costs of being an SA member.

Before asks, AD employee and former O6


That was before. Was it before the demise of O6 or after, I don't know. Now the dynamics have changed again. G3 would have started to look for a new partner. AD would be thinking hard what they would do to react.


True, it will be interesting to follow! It also depends on whether LATAM does indeed go through with the IAG JV (the sitiation definitely becomes complicated). If AF/KL also convince LA to switch; then AV and Copa both being in star Alliance makes little sense for both of them, especially since AA is also a way more lucrative partner than UA for US-Latin America flows. Star will also find G3 equally attractive, and wouldn’t mind ditching their efforts at securing Azul.
 
bsbisland
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:45 pm

Gregd75 wrote:
Gol has a lounge network and the inflight experience is nothing like Ryanair.

I think the comparison of Gol to Ryanair is wrong.

If I had to, I'd compare Gol to Westjet or AerLingus.

And I’d leave this final thought. Admittedly they don’t have the route network of LATAM long haul, but their regional flying is far superior to LATAM.

LATAM is mediocre at best. Gol is fun and service oriented.


Agree. Gol product is non-inferior to LATAM in domestic flights in Brazil, and in fact Gol has improved its service recently after a long time of bad reputation, while LATAM has lowered its service standard. Let's see if with all these investment they upgrade their domestic service in Brazil. And I believe AA will soon make an arrangement with Gol, filling LATAM void for domestic connections.
 
DLPMMM
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 3:11 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Well, here’s how all of the alliances rank in Latin America:

Skyteam:
Aerolíneas Argentinas
Aeromexico
LATAM (QATAR still owns 10%, not sure how that’s going to go over...)

Oneworld:
American would be their closest thing. Then again, I should be adding DL’s Atlanta hub by that standard.

Star Alliance:
Copa
Avianca

In the before picture, Star most certainly would have had the most flights to and through Latin America. But now, it will probably be Skyteam.

As for Azul joining Oneworld, they’d never abandon another Neeleman airline (TAP).


Who said that LATAM will join Skyteam?

I’ve only seen that they will leave Oneworld and form a deep relationship with Delta.

I’ve also read that they will keep their relationships with QF and BA.
 
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A333MSPtoAMS
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 4:14 pm

DLPMMM wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Well, here’s how all of the alliances rank in Latin America:

Skyteam:
Aerolíneas Argentinas
Aeromexico
LATAM (QATAR still owns 10%, not sure how that’s going to go over...)

Oneworld:
American would be their closest thing. Then again, I should be adding DL’s Atlanta hub by that standard.

Star Alliance:
Copa
Avianca

In the before picture, Star most certainly would have had the most flights to and through Latin America. But now, it will probably be Skyteam.

As for Azul joining Oneworld, they’d never abandon another Neeleman airline (TAP).


Who said that LATAM will join Skyteam?

I’ve only seen that they will leave Oneworld and form a deep relationship with Delta.

I’ve also read that they will keep their relationships with QF and BA.


I agree. I have read nothing, no where that indicates that they will join any other alliance. Busy because they are exciting OneWorld.
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Gulfstream500
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:14 pm

A333MSPtoAMS wrote:
DLPMMM wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Well, here’s how all of the alliances rank in Latin America:

Skyteam:
Aerolíneas Argentinas
Aeromexico
LATAM (QATAR still owns 10%, not sure how that’s going to go over...)

Oneworld:
American would be their closest thing. Then again, I should be adding DL’s Atlanta hub by that standard.

Star Alliance:
Copa
Avianca

In the before picture, Star most certainly would have had the most flights to and through Latin America. But now, it will probably be Skyteam.

As for Azul joining Oneworld, they’d never abandon another Neeleman airline (TAP).


Who said that LATAM will join Skyteam?

I’ve only seen that they will leave Oneworld and form a deep relationship with Delta.

I’ve also read that they will keep their relationships with QF and BA.


I agree. I have read nothing, no where that indicates that they will join any other alliance. Busy because they are exciting OneWorld.


There's no reason to believe that they will not codeshare through DL. With a DL codeshare, one could feasibly travel from AMS-BOS on KLM, then BOS-JFK on DL, then JFK-LIM on LATAM - All with DL flight numbers.
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
Jomar777
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:25 pm

Azul is odds on actually to join STAR Alliance and I expect movements soon on this front.
I expect GOL to join OW since it has good Brazilian and reasonable South American coverage which could be expanded. It would be ideal for AA and BA for example. And, if this happens it would pose a good threat to Latam's regional operations together with Azul.
 
solracfunk14
Posts: 83
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Re: Odds of AD (Azul) joining Oneworld to compensate for LATAM.

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:01 am

xiaotung wrote:
solracfunk14 wrote:
Ain't happening, the CEO already said no for Star Alliance and have no reason to join oneworld.

If happens, will be Star Alliance Connecting Partner, Azul runs away from the costs of being an SA member.

Before asks, AD employee and former O6


That was before. Was it before the demise of O6 or after, I don't know. Now the dynamics have changed again. G3 would have started to look for a new partner. AD would be thinking hard what they would do to react.


Was after the O6 breakdown.

They don't need to react since have United and TAP side by side.

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