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qf789
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Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:25 am

Welcome to 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019 Thread. Please continue discussion below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&p=21693251#p21693251

Just a reminder to keep your posts on topic and relevant to the discussion and keep the personal comments and flamebait out of the discussion
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jollo
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:48 am

IMO there's still something fundamentally wrong with the prevailing "Boeing over-estimated the capability of pilots to neutralize MCAS in their FMEAs" narrative.

Boeing is trying to legitimize the concept that, in a single sensor failure scenario, everything is going to be ok IF the average certified pilot will be able to switch off the correct sub-system(s) quickly enough in the middle of a sudden flood of - maybe conflicting - warnings, flags, horns, shakers, clackers, voice cues and uncommanded control inputs.

This is NOT how a competently designed (of even a half-assed, just-good-enough) automation is meant to behave: automatic controllers, even benign ones without catastrophic failure modes, shall cut themselves off the control loop - i.e. automatically stop issuing active control inputs - as soon as the correctness of the inputs cannot be assured. Yes, this will also throw up an additional warning - but only meant to ensure that human controllers/supervisors are aware that they have lost the benefit of automation and they are back in full manual control (which can be a stressful and demanding enough task, as AF447 and other accidents have tragically demonstrated).

Automation designs that, in a single sensor failure scenario, need to be manually, time-critically switched off by a human controller/supervisor in order to prevent self-destruction are NOT ACCEPTABLE. Not in your car, not in your washing machine, not in the nuclear plant next door, not ever. Especially not in an airliner flying human beings around.

Specific training will still be required to ensure pilots are able to cope with the un-augmented flight characteristics of the airplane (not a trivial task, otherwise the automation would not have been required in the first place) but, as EASA unequivocally pointed out, pilot training should NOT be an excuse to certify for public service an unacceptable design.

That's going to be a moot point anyhow, because MCAS 2.0 is going to be a competent design and pilots will never again have to cut out the electric stab trim motor in order to prevent MCAS from diving the plane into the ground. Well, we don't know, but FAA does, doesn't it?
Last edited by jollo on Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:56 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
LondonAero
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:50 am

Any thoughts on the below from EASA? https://www.easa.europa.eu/newsroom-and ... rification

It sounds like they have completed the simulator runs in June / July - but that seems pretty weird given that BA has not or only just recently finished the new software? Any thoughts appreciated.

This statement also caught my eye. “Aircraft longitudinal stability is subject to airworthiness requirements. Boeing has to demonstrate compliance of the 737 MAX airframe with these requirements. Consequences of failures of systems affecting potentially the aircraft stability need to be assessed using acceptable safety analysis methodology also subject to airworthiness requirements. Pilot training requirements are not meant to compensate for non-acceptable design on the compliance and safety standpoint.”
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:14 am

So when are the fixes being submitted to FAA?

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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:28 am

LondonAero wrote:
Any thoughts on the below from EASA? https://www.easa.europa.eu/newsroom-and ... rification

It sounds like they have completed the simulator runs in June / July - but that seems pretty weird given that BA has not or only just recently finished the new software? Any thoughts appreciated.

This statement also caught my eye. “Aircraft longitudinal stability is subject to airworthiness requirements. Boeing has to demonstrate compliance of the 737 MAX airframe with these requirements. Consequences of failures of systems affecting potentially the aircraft stability need to be assessed using acceptable safety analysis methodology also subject to airworthiness requirements. Pilot training requirements are not meant to compensate for non-acceptable design on the compliance and safety standpoint.”


Thoughts? They are very careful in their wording, especially around the simulator training. So I generally beleive that they haven't made up their minds as of yet, so the ball is still in Boeing's court to prove their airworthiness.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:31 am

Is it today that Muilenburg is appearing before the Committee? Really interested in what he will say. Hope there will be some sort of contrition but i suspect it will be 'we didnt do anything wrong, safe plane safer' etc etc
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Veigar
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:35 am

Haven't been following for a while, has anything notable been said by Boeing or the FAA yet?
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:45 am

Today is the 30th Sep 2019 the final day when Boeing said it would submit fixes, so waiting for midnight Pacific coast time for a new timeline or the actual submission.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:57 am

LondonAero wrote:
Any thoughts on the below from EASA? https://www.easa.europa.eu/newsroom-and ... rification

It sounds like they have completed the simulator runs in June / July - but that seems pretty weird given that BA has not or only just recently finished the new software? Any thoughts appreciated.

This statement also caught my eye. “Aircraft longitudinal stability is subject to airworthiness requirements. Boeing has to demonstrate compliance of the 737 MAX airframe with these requirements. Consequences of failures of systems affecting potentially the aircraft stability need to be assessed using acceptable safety analysis methodology also subject to airworthiness requirements. Pilot training requirements are not meant to compensate for non-acceptable design on the compliance and safety standpoint.”


That timeframe seems to be when they demonstrated the MCAS fix. It was subsequent to that that the FAA required a fix for the "bit flip" potential (but highly unlikely) issue. If it was just the MCAS architecture change that needed to be completed (along with associated changes to training), the fix would have already been submitted and likely the MAX would already be ungrounded.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:59 am

par13del wrote:
Today is the 30th Sep 2019 the final day when Boeing said it would submit fixes, so waiting for midnight Pacific coast time for a new timeline or the actual submission.


Did Boeing ever officially say that they'd submit the fix in September? The only thing I remember officially is that they expected reentry into service to be "early 4th quarter," which could be taken to mean before November 15th.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 11:11 am

par13del wrote:
Today is the 30th Sep 2019 the final day when Boeing said it would submit fixes, so waiting for midnight Pacific coast time for a new timeline or the actual submission.


Did EASA did its tests yet.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 11:48 am

planecane wrote:
par13del wrote:
Today is the 30th Sep 2019 the final day when Boeing said it would submit fixes, so waiting for midnight Pacific coast time for a new timeline or the actual submission.


Did Boeing ever officially say that they'd submit the fix in September? The only thing I remember officially is that they expected reentry into service to be "early 4th quarter," which could be taken to mean before November 15th.

Yes, Boeing did say they would submit their fixes by September, to avoid bias listing a non-USA media house.
The ungrounding in the 4th Qtr is contingent on the new set of fixes being submitted to the FAA. We have not been discussing it recently, but the MCAS fix was submitted in June and the FAA then bought up their "bit flip" requirements and EASA doubled down on their 4 or 5 requirements, those are the items that Boeing intended to submit fixes for by September and if approved would lead to the ungrounding of the MAX in the 4th Qtr.

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... ember-ceo/
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 11:55 am

Dutchy wrote:
par13del wrote:
Today is the 30th Sep 2019 the final day when Boeing said it would submit fixes, so waiting for midnight Pacific coast time for a new timeline or the actual submission.


Did EASA did its tests yet.

Unless EASA wants to go around the FAA and have Boeing work on satisfying multiple regulators at the same time, I think they will wait until Boeing submits their fixes to the primary regulator of record which is the FAA.
I suspect what they will do is to also wait to see if the FAA approves Boeing fixes, if they do, then they will request test done under their supervision, hence there will be no simultaneous ungrounding as the FAA will have to find some way to justify to the public that they have approved the fixes but want USA operators to wait until EASA has completed their test in 2020 before Boeing can start repairing and delivering frames to clients. If this scenario plays out, I would expect China, India, Canada and all others to follow the same script, so expect more regulators to want to conduct their own supervised test prior to allowing the MAX to fly in their jurisdiction, folks tend to like to follow precedents.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:03 pm

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
par13del wrote:
Today is the 30th Sep 2019 the final day when Boeing said it would submit fixes, so waiting for midnight Pacific coast time for a new timeline or the actual submission.


Did EASA did its tests yet.

Unless EASA wants to go around the FAA and have Boeing work on satisfying multiple regulators at the same time, I think they will wait until Boeing submits their fixes to the primary regulator of record which is the FAA.
I suspect what they will do is to also wait to see if the FAA approves Boeing fixes, if they do, then they will request test done under their supervision, hence there will be no simultaneous ungrounding as the FAA will have to find some way to justify to the public that they have approved the fixes but want USA operators to wait until EASA has completed their test in 2020 before Boeing can start repairing and delivering frames to clients. If this scenario plays out, I would expect China, India, Canada and all others to follow the same script, so expect more regulators to want to conduct their own supervised test prior to allowing the MAX to fly in their jurisdiction, folks tend to like to follow precedents.


Would prove to be an "interesting" situation if two regulators have a different approach and actually have two sets of regulations which bite each other.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:42 pm

Well, EASA has already stated that they do not trust the FAA, so in principle, how would they verify that the FAA is now functioning correctly?
Allow the FAA to approve the fixes, then do your review and if there are i's not dotted or t's not crossed, you have an ah ha moment.
 
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acreinholz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:17 pm

par13del wrote:
Well, EASA has already stated that they do not trust the FAA, so in principle, how would they verify that the FAA is now functioning correctly?
Allow the FAA to approve the fixes, then do your review and if there are i's not dotted or t's not crossed, you have an ah ha moment.


Sounds like a Plan...
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WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:01 pm

acreinholz wrote:
par13del wrote:
Well, EASA has already stated that they do not trust the FAA, so in principle, how would they verify that the FAA is now functioning correctly?
Allow the FAA to approve the fixes, then do your review and if there are i's not dotted or t's not crossed, you have an ah ha moment.


Sounds like a Plan...

the EASA notices are written : FAA will have to show that they have reinstated the proper processes
as defined by the part of their job description that is "certification of airplanes".

They've been very unspecific about solutions _they_ would go for
as it is not their task anway. 737 is a US domain certification
and EASA is treaty bound to accept FAA decisions.

FAA conformance to their own framework on the other hand ...
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:13 pm

par13del wrote:
Well, EASA has already stated that they do not trust the FAA, so in principle, how would they verify that the FAA is now functioning correctly?
Allow the FAA to approve the fixes, then do your review and if there are i's not dotted or t's not crossed, you have an ah ha moment.

Look for the "exchange of views" slides and it is all spelled out:

Next major milestones:

Safety assessment of the new design changes proposed by Boeing, including operational procedures
Human factor evaluation and functional tests of the new software
Flight tests on a modified B737 max [one full week - at Boeing Flight Test Center]
    MCAS operations (nominal behavior)
    Flight without MCAS (including high speed turns and stall)
    Scenario of stabiliser runaway (uncommanded MCAS activation, manual trim wheel forces)
    Approach to stall with autopilot engaged
Crew Training requirements, in particular using Computer Based Training or Simulator
Coordination with EASA Member States on Return to Service actions

Ref: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/ ... iginal.pdf

Note the coordination of EASA member states is called out yet no coordination with FAA is called out.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:35 pm

par13del wrote:
We have not been discussing it recently, but the MCAS fix was submitted in June and the FAA then bought up their "bit flip" requirements and EASA doubled down on their 4 or 5 requirements, those are the items that Boeing intended to submit fixes for by September and if approved would lead to the ungrounding of the MAX in the 4th Qtr.


The conventional interpretation of "by September" would be before September starts.

Regarding the undefined "early 4th quarter" - in my book October would count as early, November mid and December late 4th quarter, but appreciate it's appropriately vague.
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JAAlbert
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:15 pm

A new thread is both refreshing (no need to cycle through 88pgs) and distressing - has any other commercial aircraft been grounded for so long?

It seems the matter is moving toward resolution and the Max should be airborne again soon (weeks? Months?). I for one am looking forward to seeing the plane in service again and I hope to travel on one soon. After all the scrutiny this plane has received the past year, my thought it will be the safest bird in the sky (it will have to be or Boeing is toast).
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:19 pm

JAAlbert wrote:
A new thread is both refreshing (no need to cycle through 88pgs) and distressing - has any other commercial aircraft been grounded for so long?

The de Havilland Comet?
That one broke all records, or rather it set them right from the start. In fact, the grounding was never lifted for the original Comet 1 (¹); instead it was replaced (after a delay of some four years) by the Comet 4 which was an entirely different kettle of worms.
The good thing is that the whole aviation industry learned one helluva lot from that episode, and as a consequence the aviation world became a better place.
Scant consolation for the 99 passengers & crew involved. And not so good for de Havilland, and BOAC, and the British taxpayer. But it was a useful bonus for Douglas and Boeing. giving them time to catch up, overtake, and then thoroughly dominate the world market for jet airliners for the next three decades..
It's an ill wind.....

JAAlbert wrote:
After all the scrutiny this plane has received the past year, my thought it will be the safest bird in the sky (it will have to be or Boeing is toast).

"The safest bird I the sky"? I've heard that phrase a little too often
It's spoken from the heart, but not necessarily relevant.
The MAX only needs to be just as safe as the NG and everything else currently out there.
Not better, not worse.
On top of which it needs a smidgeon of luck regarding the cause of the next crash (and there will inevitably be one, but preferably not in the immediate future)
The next crash can be
a) pilot error, for instance involving a drunken suicidal pilot who has just been dumped by his wife and has crippling debts
b) a routine engine failure (not Boeing's fault, no way!)
c) a terrorist bomb
d) a mid-air collision
e) basically anything so long as it is categorically and undeniably unconnected with MCAS.

Yes, the muck-rakers will inevitably drag up the MCAS story one mo' time, just to fill some column inches. But for a generation with the attention span of goldfish, that will swiftly become old news and will pass.

The MAX needs to be safe; it doesn't need hyperbole.

(¹) For the pedants; two examples of the Comet 1, totally re-built with heavier gauge skins, were operated for some years by RCAF 412 sqdn, but these were only certified for a limited number of pressurisation cycles.

p.s. Yes it was two months and over 3500 posts since my last contribution to this thread, but believe it or not I have been here all the time, lurking, and reading every single one of those 3500 posts, not to mention the 12,000 odd that preceded them. I really should get a life..... :lol:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:15 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
The de Havilland Comet?
That one broke all records, or rather it set them right from the start.


there was no CometZero. .-)

The Comet1 did not have a predecessor build in significant numbers with fully acceptable safety record.

Actually it was more or less the first of kind.
Though even on the Comet1 that kind of design fault was not a necessity from unknown unknowns.
Knowledge in that domain existed already.
Then the path to a new design was less mastered then it is today. Much more trial and error was
accepted not only for prototypes but also for early batches produced for line duty.

Today you have a design process that only uses vetted construction elements and the "prototypes" are
by all appearance first samples from series production that are just used to prove the expected metrics.
Murphy is an optimist
 
SEU
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:56 pm

Hopefully this is the last quarter thread on this, however despite the right whisperers coming out, I cannot see the end in sight yet.
 
JAAlbert
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:46 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
JAAlbert wrote:
A new thread is both refreshing (no need to cycle through 88pgs) and distressing - has any other commercial aircraft been grounded for so long?

The de Havilland Comet?
That one broke all records, or rather it set them right from the start. In fact, the grounding was never lifted for the original Comet 1 (¹); instead it was replaced (after a delay of some four years) by the Comet 4 which was an entirely different kettle of worms.
The good thing is that the whole aviation industry learned one helluva lot from that episode, and as a consequence the aviation world became a better place.
Scant consolation for the 99 passengers & crew involved. And not so good for de Havilland, and BOAC, and the British taxpayer. But it was a useful bonus for Douglas and Boeing. giving them time to catch up, overtake, and then thoroughly dominate the world market for jet airliners for the next three decades..
It's an ill wind.....


Interesting that they grounded the comet1 and never lifted the order! The comet takes the record then. I'm anxious to the see the Max back in the skies.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:03 am

JAAlbert wrote:
…. - has any other commercial aircraft been grounded for so long?

Concorde - 15-16 months.
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SRQLOT
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:41 am

So I have been reading most of the posts in the 737-8Max grounding saga, and finally decided to write a post as I don’t remember if I have read this in one of the threads. Just read on CNN that the military version of the 767 KC-46 also has MCAS. Now I’m not sure which MCAS was designed first. But if it was the KC-46 first then I’m disappointed that Boeing people didn’t look into that MCAS when designing the MAX to make sure that best possible option was used.

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/09/30/po ... cnn.com%2F
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:11 am

SRQLOT wrote:
So I have been reading most of the posts in the 737-8Max grounding saga, and finally decided to write a post as I don’t remember if I have read this in one of the threads. Just read on CNN that the military version of the 767 KC-46 also has MCAS. Now I’m not sure which MCAS was designed first. But if it was the KC-46 first then I’m disappointed that Boeing people didn’t look into that MCAS when designing the MAX to make sure that best possible option was used.

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/09/30/po ... cnn.com%2F

Reminders.

MCAS did not just appear with the MAX.
Here is a quote from Aviation Daily (25 March 2019):
"Both the KC-767 and KC-46 fleets delivered to air forces in Italy, Japan and the U.S. rely on the MCAS to adjust for pitch trim changes during refueling operations.

In the 1980s, Boeing’s engineers considered using a pitch augmentation system for the commercial version of the 767, but dropped the idea after finding that vortex generators provided adequate control.

By 2011, Boeing had already delivered KC-767s to Italy and Japan fitted with the first version of MCAS. The use of the system then spread as Boeing won the Air Force’s KC-46 contract in February and launched the 737 Max 8 in August.

But Boeing designed the integration on the KC-767 and KC-46 slightly differently than on the 737 Max family.

The single-aisle airliner uses one angle of attack vane — either the captain’s or first officer’s — to generate the data used by the flight computer to activate the MCAS.

By comparison, the KC-767 and KC-46 are designed to use two sensor inputs to feed angle of attack data, Boeing says".
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1417519&start=3600
(post #3613)
www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pages/2019 ... ystem.aspx

Ray
 
giblets
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:50 am

JAAlbert wrote:
Interesting that they grounded the comet1 and never lifted the order! The comet takes the record then. I'm anxious to the see the Max back in the skies.


Some Comet 1's were adapted to the Comet 1X and 1XB standard that were allowed to continue flying....

Back on track and Southwest pilots are looking at Feb/ March next year, wondering just how many Max's will be in Storage by then!
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WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:28 am

SRQLOT wrote:
So I have been reading most of the posts in the 737-8Max grounding saga, and finally decided to write a post as I don’t remember if I have read this in one of the threads. Just read on CNN that the military version of the 767 KC-46 also has MCAS. Now I’m not sure which MCAS was designed first. But if it was the KC-46 first then I’m disappointed that Boeing people didn’t look into that MCAS when designing the MAX to make sure that best possible option was used.

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/09/30/po ... cnn.com%2F


What could be garnered is that the MAX MCAS was "lifted" from the tanker.
The tanker apparently has "synthetic" AoA ( .. airspeed, .. too ) i.e. redundant sensors and inertial data are combined into a fail save set of values for further use.

Sticking that into the bifurcated no redundancy 737 environment was a sure way to create major issues.
( and I am still of the opinion that this must have been realized by any designer worth his/her money.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 10:09 am

WIederling wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
So I have been reading most of the posts in the 737-8Max grounding saga, and finally decided to write a post as I don’t remember if I have read this in one of the threads. Just read on CNN that the military version of the 767 KC-46 also has MCAS. Now I’m not sure which MCAS was designed first. But if it was the KC-46 first then I’m disappointed that Boeing people didn’t look into that MCAS when designing the MAX to make sure that best possible option was used.

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/09/30/po ... cnn.com%2F


What could be garnered is that the MAX MCAS was "lifted" from the tanker.
The tanker apparently has "synthetic" AoA ( .. airspeed, .. too ) i.e. redundant sensors and inertial data are combined into a fail save set of values for further use.

Sticking that into the bifurcated no redundancy 737 environment was a sure way to create major issues.
( and I am still of the opinion that this must have been realized by any designer worth his/her money.)


Plus, the 767 has a different flight control computer architecture to start with.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 10:53 am

After a burst of optimism about the 737MAX being ungrounded in Q4 I am now thinking Boeing still has a mountain to climb to get all models of the MAX into service worldwide.
It’s also difficult to get any solid information amongst the opaque lawyer speak, unattributed sources, clickbait and ‘experts’ who hold opposed views. The fog does not seem to be clearing.

Some of the issues appear to be:
• Getting the worldwide regulators to stay in lockstep.
• Have the other issues apart from MCAS been resolved? The trim wheel, the flight control computer being overloaded, the bit flip.. are these even issues at all ?
• Will the ungrounding apply to all models, including the MAX10? Last I heard they may be issues about the MAX10 being able to pass the evacuation test, it has the new main gear that telescopes to avoid tailstrikes – don’t think that has been demonstrated yet. Also the MAX10 has the longest fuselage so I would imagine MCAS would be more important for lateral stability.
• There were posts suggesting that by October customers would be contractually able to cancel 737MAX orders penalty free.
• There is no evidence to suggest that Boeing has even submitted the MCAS fix to the FAA yet.

Even if the 737MAX gets the green light from worldwide regulators there are likely to be conditions attached including additional pilot training and possibly limitations on performance due to weight and balance issues. Then there may be issues around increased insurance premiums, then Boeing will need a PR campaign to convince the public that it is safe to fly on…

So just my 10 cents (pennies).. I have found this thread very informative. I can imagine it will still be going by Q2 2020 at least.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 10:59 am

planecane wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Sticking that into the bifurcated no redundancy 737 environment was a sure way to create major issues.
( and I am still of the opinion that this must have been realized by any designer worth his/her money.)


Plus, the 767 has a different flight control computer architecture to start with.


What I wrote.
Murphy is an optimist
 
sharpley
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:19 am

Couldn't see this article posted here yet... Southwest pilots say 737 Max may not return to the skies until next March

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ng-737-max

Some quotes from the article..
'The carrier confirmed that re-introducing the jet should take about 45 days after the flight ban is lifted.'

'The union estimated it would take 200 man hours of work to get Southwest’s 34 grounded Max planes ready to fly again, while the airline put the number at “an average of 120 hours plus per aircraft.” The carrier will first fly new Max planes that Boeing has built during the grounding, before operating the 34 stored by the airline in Arizona, SWAPA said'
.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:00 pm

flyingphil wrote:
I can imagine it will still be going by Q2 2020 at least.

Sure, there will be a long tail of events following the first RTS.

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... rk-on.html says Boeing is making provisions for people to be working on MAX refurbishment at Moses Lake going out till April 2021.

It also pays them bigger bonuses the longer they stay at Moses Lake:

The following bonuses will be paid to workers from Boeing's Puget Sound sites who take assignments at Moses Lake:
    10 percent on eligible earnings for the first six months
    15 percent on eligible earnings for months seven through 12
    20 percent on eligible earnings for months 12 through 18

So this is going to be a fiscal windfall for some Boeing employees, and a huge money sink for the company.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-c ... 41884.html gives the CEO's current thinking:

The planemaker is fine-tuning a software upgrade for the Max’s flight-control computers in its simulation lab and girding for the evaluation of a final version by line pilots. The company is discussing the timing of the certification flight with U.S. officials, although no date has been set. That’s the final hurdle before the Federal Aviation Administration determines whether the flying ban can be lifted, Muilenburg said Monday.

And:

The final steps to lifting the ban are clearly defined, and timing will be determined by the FAA, Muilenburg said. Once a final version of the flight control computer update is ready, Boeing will invite airline pilots to test-fly it in the company’s engineering simulators known as e-cabs. A separate team of pilots will review the company’s updated training material. After that FAA pilots will test the changes in a Boeing 737 Max bristling with sensors and other flight-testing equipment.

“That’s the certification endgame,” Muilenburg said. “We’re still marching to a timeline of return to service early in the fourth quarter, but I want to reiterate the timing will be determined by regulators.”

So the final version has not yet been finalized.

Once it is, we have testing by line pilots in the engineering simulator and evaluation of training materials.

Then we have the FAA certification flights.

It seems the time line has been pushed out.

I think events suggest that the final software version is being pushed out by EASA's specific requirements.

And the testing by line pilots is a task that has only recently been added to the timeline.

Yet DM still says early Q4, presumably just to keep attentions focused, since it's clear we're drifting past that goal.
Last edited by Revelation on Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:31 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
"The safest bird I the sky"? I've heard that phrase a little too often
It's spoken from the heart, but not necessarily relevant.
The MAX only needs to be just as safe as the NG and everything else currently out there.
Not better, not worse.
...
p.s. Yes it was two months and over 3500 posts since my last contribution to this thread, but believe it or not I have been here all the time, lurking, and reading every single one of those 3500 posts, not to mention the 12,000 odd that preceded them. I really should get a life..... :lol:

Then you probably read (or read of) the NYT Langeweishe article.

People seemed to have not gotten past their gag reflexes triggered by its realism to read its conclusion, which says Boeing will need to swallow its pride and (eventually?) produce a design more idiot proof, along the lines of the Airbus design.

It doesn't take much of a leap to suggest the future is even more automated, maybe to the point of single pilot aircraft with a big red button to land at nearest serviceable airport along with a ground based monitor capable of remotely pressing that button, then eventual elimination of that single pilot.

And exactly how we get from where we are to that point is left as an exercise for the reader.

Clearly that path would leave MAX behind due to sheer lack of sensors ( ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 3299534854 ).
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kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
Then you probably read (or read of) the NYT Langeweishe article.

People seemed to have not gotten past their gag reflexes triggered by its realism to read its conclusion, which says Boeing will need to swallow its pride and (eventually?) produce a design more idiot proof, along the lines of the Airbus design.

Glass can be half empty or half full. You call it swallowing pride; I call it reading up the research done in the past 50 -70 years. MAX is a good safe airplane*
* by the standards of 1950s.

We're at a point where well designed machine is more reliable than a person. There are many questions to be answered in that domain, but generally speaking there are two basic types of routine jobs: ones which are too simple to require human operator (ask McDonald's cashiers), and ones to complex to trust humans do them....
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:30 pm

kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Then you probably read (or read of) the NYT Langeweishe article.

People seemed to have not gotten past their gag reflexes triggered by its realism to read its conclusion, which says Boeing will need to swallow its pride and (eventually?) produce a design more idiot proof, along the lines of the Airbus design.

Glass can be half empty or half full. You call it swallowing pride; I call it reading up the research done in the past 50 -70 years. MAX is a good safe airplane*
* by the standards of 1950s.

Note that I am paraphrasing Langeweishe with regard to swallowing pride.

I'm not sure where I'd put MAX after RTS on the time line of safety, but I'm sure it'd be later than 1950s.

I think the key phrase to use is the one I've quoted Mike Sinnett on a few times now: the machine and the pilot are qualified together as a system. There are still lots of things even the Airbus requires the pilot to do to ensure safe operation. The main problem is the great fiscal incentive to train the pilot as little as possible.

We're at a point where well designed machine is more reliable than a person. There are many questions to be answered in that domain, but generally speaking there are two basic types of routine jobs: ones which are too simple to require human operator (ask McDonald's cashiers), and ones too complex to trust humans do them....

As above, don't forget even Mickey D's has a fiscal incentive to get rid of the humans. They've tried dumbing down their user interfaces to the point they could hire anyone off the street to work them, then realized that literally anyone walking in off the street did as well or better than their paid employees, and were willing to work for free just as long as they eventually got their "food products".

Make no mistake, airlines would love pilotless aircraft. We already see the first phases being sketched out: single pilot mode with ground back up for freight aircraft. Pilotless aircraft are a lot simpler than Tesla style autopilot, since there's a lot less things to run in to en route and airports that already have lots of tech to aid take off and landing. The main issue is all the human piloted aircraft and ATCs that do not play by robot rules, and of course, those nervous passengers.

One giant "unintended outcome" of the criticism of pilots in this tragedy is probably a greater awareness that the long term fix is to get rid of pilots.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:08 pm

kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Then you probably read (or read of) the NYT Langeweishe article.

People seemed to have not gotten past their gag reflexes triggered by its realism to read its conclusion, which says Boeing will need to swallow its pride and (eventually?) produce a design more idiot proof, along the lines of the Airbus design.

Glass can be half empty or half full. You call it swallowing pride; I call it reading up the research done in the past 50 -70 years. MAX is a good safe airplane*
* by the standards of 1950s.

We're at a point where well designed machine is more reliable than a person. There are many questions to be answered in that domain, but generally speaking there are two basic types of routine jobs: ones which are too simple to require human operator (ask McDonald's cashiers), and ones to complex to trust humans do them....

When this debate started in the last thread I asked the question, what exactly is wrong with the automation that Boeing presently has in the 787 and 777, I think the answer was those were ok. So if we get into the details of this swallow their pride comment and follow Airbus, how will that happen on the 737 MAX, I think we can all agree that it will be a new a/c which will replace the 737.
In my opinion, unless he was throwing share at the existing Boeing implementations of FBW in the 787 / 777, I think the comment was poorly made as it needed clarification. Based on his expertise, he should be fully aware that the 737 cannot be converted to full FBW, it would have to be a new frame, he could have clarified his comment to say that in its present form, the 737 has reached the end of it maturity, any further would require full FBW, I can see the FAA and EASA making such a recommendation.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:32 pm

par13del wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Then you probably read (or read of) the NYT Langeweishe article.

People seemed to have not gotten past their gag reflexes triggered by its realism to read its conclusion, which says Boeing will need to swallow its pride and (eventually?) produce a design more idiot proof, along the lines of the Airbus design.

Glass can be half empty or half full. You call it swallowing pride; I call it reading up the research done in the past 50 -70 years. MAX is a good safe airplane*
* by the standards of 1950s.

We're at a point where well designed machine is more reliable than a person. There are many questions to be answered in that domain, but generally speaking there are two basic types of routine jobs: ones which are too simple to require human operator (ask McDonald's cashiers), and ones to complex to trust humans do them....

When this debate started in the last thread I asked the question, what exactly is wrong with the automation that Boeing presently has in the 787 and 777, I think the answer was those were ok. So if we get into the details of this swallow their pride comment and follow Airbus, how will that happen on the 737 MAX, I think we can all agree that it will be a new a/c which will replace the 737.
In my opinion, unless he was throwing share at the existing Boeing implementations of FBW in the 787 / 777, I think the comment was poorly made as it needed clarification. Based on his expertise, he should be fully aware that the 737 cannot be converted to full FBW, it would have to be a new frame, he could have clarified his comment to say that in its present form, the 737 has reached the end of it maturity, any further would require full FBW, I can see the FAA and EASA making such a recommendation.

I, for one, don't see this as A vs B issue; I see MAX ver 2017 as a textbook example we all study to avoid future mistakes. That covers mistakes in anything from Boeing 797 design to placement of dishwasher in my kitchen: how would a non-sophisticated user deal with such a system, what are the small details which may hinder proper operation? Whether those mistakes result in a plane crash or broken dishes, there are things to learn.
NG is a pretty good proof that mostly mechanical design approach can work as good as FBW - if both are executed properly. It is the meaning of "properly" and its evolution over time we are discussing.
 
Phoenix757767
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:40 pm

Boeing has asked AA to send letters to all retired mechanics, which AA did and asked them if they wanted TDY with Boeing at Moses Lake to get the Max’s back in the air. So something must be close.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:44 pm

Finally some one woke up & adresses the influential role of Congress in Boeing aircraft certification.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/blogs/torqued-congresss-role-boeing-737-max-accidents-needs-look

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Jamie514
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:49 pm

Revelation wrote:


One giant "unintended outcome" of the criticism of pilots in this tragedy is probably a greater awareness that the long term fix is to get rid of pilots.


Thats a general trend long term that was in process well before this tragedy occurred.

And if Boeing cannot competently design fullly redundant automation even without pilots to fall back on with blame as you stunningly continue to do under your veil, Boeing won't be part of that future, at all.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:03 pm

Jamie514 wrote:
Revelation wrote:


One giant "unintended outcome" of the criticism of pilots in this tragedy is probably a greater awareness that the long term fix is to get rid of pilots.


Thats a general trend long term that was in process well before this tragedy occurred.

And if Boeing cannot competently design fullly redundant automation even without pilots to fall back on with blame as you stunningly continue to do under your veil, Boeing won't be part of that future, at all.


I'd like to reshine some light on David Learmount of Flight Global fame
disseminating an apparent/upcoming move for the pilot community
from white collar style jobs to more blue collar typed activity.
( back 10..15 years, sorry can't bring up a link to the article on Flight Global history.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:28 pm

Jamie514 wrote:
Revelation wrote:


One giant "unintended outcome" of the criticism of pilots in this tragedy is probably a greater awareness that the long term fix is to get rid of pilots.


Thats a general trend long term that was in process well before this tragedy occurred.

And if Boeing cannot competently design fullly redundant automation even without pilots to fall back on with blame as you stunningly continue to do under your veil, Boeing won't be part of that future, at all.


Boeing is quite capable of designing fully redundant Automation - please look at the 787/777 Programs - no control issues there.

The big problem they had was one more iteration of the 737 which due to it's architecture was unable to be upgraded to modern systems. However that was not required by the regulations in place at design freeze time. They could have done an NSA but the regulations allowed them to upgrade the MAX yet again.

Maybe the regulators were too slow in understanding what has happened to the global training standards and those regulations should have been revised 5 or 10 years ago. However even 2019 Produced NG's will be in use for decades by Pilot's who have yet to be trained. They need to be trained and be proficient to be able to competently handle any issues that may crop up in 737 (and other older non-fbw designs).

This is a design issue and a training issue that needs to be addressed probably for at least another 30-35 years (as MAX's will probably be produced for about 10 years until NSA is ready and then flown for another 25).

It is not time (yet) to relax Pilot training standards - in fact recent history has shown they need to be strengthened.

A 737 replacement will happen that will be full FBW and probably be the most idiot proof plane ever designed (or attempt to be designed) - however as we all know the more complex you try to make a system to account for every possible thing that may happen in flight the more potential issues that open up.

Pilot's will be needed for a long time (and they will need to have proficient manual flying skills) - even if it's just to push the big button to turn off HAL and return to the nearest airport using basic controls.


That brings up a good question and maybe why the final design changes being submitted to the FAA is taking so long.

Could they possibly be reverting to the NG trim wiring architecture so electric trim is always available by having the ability to turn off the Computers ability to affect the trim?

It seems like the amount of time to modify the MAX (isn't it being quoted as 120 hours?) seems a lot more than is needed to just load software and prepare the planes for flight.

Could it be hardware changes (trim switch reconfiguration) as well?
Last edited by morrisond on Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:31 pm

keesje wrote:
Finally some one woke up & adresses the influential role of Congress in Boeing aircraft certification.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/blogs/torqued-congresss-role-boeing-737-max-accidents-needs-look

Image

So to be snippy, we don't think this is more PR being spun by Boeing?
 
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zeke
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:41 pm

par13del wrote:
Well, EASA has already stated that they do not trust the FAA, so in principle, how would they verify that the FAA is now functioning correctly?
Allow the FAA to approve the fixes, then do your review and if there are i's not dotted or t's not crossed, you have an ah ha moment.


EASA does not do type acceptance of FAA certifications, they do their own certification. For the 737NG EASA was not satisfied with the FAA certification for longitudinal stability, so they required Boeing to develop and include STS . Subsequently STS became standard on all aircraft.

If EASA has further requirements, I would see Boeing making those as standard for on all aircraft.
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klm617
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:49 pm

I think it's very telling that the FAA wants the new system to be trained on by 'Average pilots" meaning to me that the lack of understanding and awareness in the cockpit was a very large contributing factors in the 2 MAX 8 crashes. I see this as similar to letting your 14 year old child drive your new Ferrari and some point you are just asking for trouble.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:50 pm

Phoenix757767 wrote:
Boeing has asked AA to send letters to all retired mechanics, which AA did and asked them if they wanted TDY with Boeing at Moses Lake to get the Max’s back in the air. So something must be close.



I had heard that they will start the software updates in less than a month.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
dougbr2006
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:01 pm

klm617 wrote:
Phoenix757767 wrote:
Boeing has asked AA to send letters to all retired mechanics, which AA did and asked them if they wanted TDY with Boeing at Moses Lake to get the Max’s back in the air. So something must be close.



I had heard that they will start the software updates in less than a month.


From the gist of things being reported from all sectors, Boeing still has not submitted the software and safety analysis to the FAA. After that is studied and deemed sufficient comes the FAA test flying to ensure all is as put on paper. There may be issues from that that need attending to so it would seem a little fool hardy to start loading software that may not be approved and or may need further tweaking. Boeing has high enough compensation and repayment of engineering time to the airlines when the final version could be uploaded and the return to flight inspections finalized and even then the airlines own flight test prior to returning any ship to service after sitting around for more than six months.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:05 pm

    klm617 wrote:
    I think it's very telling that the FAA wants the new system to be trained on by 'Average pilots" meaning to me that the lack of understanding and awareness in the cockpit was a very large contributing factors in the 2 MAX 8 crashes. I see this as similar to letting your 14 year old child drive your new Ferrari and some point you are just asking for trouble.


    especially if you hide the manual from him, because he has to believe it is not different from your pickup
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