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AirlineCritic
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:03 am

I wonder about one aspect of all the flight and simulator tests. When the test pilots go through systems and aircraft situations in the sky or in the simulator, I am certain that MCAS was part of those tests. However, were they testing (a) MCAS actions as specified or (b) MCAS actions with erroneous sensors? At least judging by what we know today, it sounds too dangerous to do the latter in a real airplane, but I'm not sure they realised the situation at the time. I remember that the Boeing analysis did not consider the entire cockpit situation (all the alarms, for instance) but did they not try this at all anywhere, or tried it in a different way?

From my perspective, what could have happened is one of:

1/ There was only testing of the normal conditions in MCAS. In that case the recent message leaks will be referring to regular operation of MCAS, not what the Ethiopian and Lion Air pilots experienced. But in my opinion that would be a serious mistake in testing a new aircraft, not testing the fault conditions.

2/ There was only sim testing of MCAS, and they included support in the SIM for a sensor failure. In this case the leaked messages refer to a more life-like situation of a MCAS failure. But how close to reality was this? Did they enable it upon take-off, at low altitude, or only later? In hindsight, enabling it for take-off would have exposed the situation. Unless the simulator support was not somehow accurate, and did not cause all the other alarms to go off etc.

3/ There was also flight testing of the MCAS, but performed at safe altitude to give space for recovery in time. Again, the confusing cockpit situation would not have had the same effect as in reality.

4/ There was proper testing of MCAS in a real aircraft, even for take off and at low altitude. This might have been deemed to unsafe to do, however.
 
RickNRoll
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Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:09 am

There was an AFP story I posted a link to about three months ago that basically said all this, then it disappeared. No one else reported it.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/behind- ... re-2080007
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:35 am

Strato2 wrote:
At this point and with these latest revelations I'm just happy to be alive from the Norwegian MAX flight I took in January. One wonders what else have they brushed under the carpet besides the MCAS. Rest assured I will not be boarding Boeing MAX ever again.

Recently I was looking at Icelandair flights to North America during April 2020. When the 737 Max showed up in the search results, I thought hell no, and diverted my attention to other airlines.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:45 am

aaexecplat wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
If the sim was running properly, accurately duplicating the MAX's flying qualities, then it indicates that Boeing was aware that MCAS was doing something that it shouldn't have, something that would presumably occur on the real aircraft. If the sim wasn't running properly, then Boeing knew that the sim wasn't providing proper data and they needed to go back and rerun their simulations, collect more data, etc. Am I evaluating this correctly?

Thanks,

Bob


One thing that slightly puzzles me is that these pilots were flying in the MAX simulators and finding MCAS trim issue, but my understanding was that MAX simulators sold to operators DID NOT simulate MCAS at all? Did Boeing edit out MCAS in the simulators sold to operators?


I would assume that the simulator version sold to the airlines was cleaned of MCAS. It is Boeing who supplies the data to the simulator manufacturer and pilots were not supposed to know about MCAS.
 
lowbank
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:10 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:50 am

astuteman wrote:
Aither wrote:
In a way It's kind of reassuring that employees found the issue. It shows the testings are not done by totally incompetent people.
The big question is what happened next ?


This is the bit that tweaks me.
I generally stay off these threads because they are typically toxic, depressing, repetitive, and unnaturally fixated with global training standards

But you look at the Boeing commercial product range and they are all almost universally safety benchmarks for their class.
Boeing 777? Benchmark safety
Boeing 787? Benchmark safety
Most tellingly
Boeing 737NG? Benchmark safety. I get the trim wheel thing, but the stats don't lie. 10's of millions of flights between fatal accidents.

Boeing clearly know how to operate a product certification process successfully, and it is testament to all those hard working and dedicated Boeing employees that they do so.
And that is the disturbing, and I presume upsetting, thing about the fatal MAX/MCAS saga for those dedicated employees.

The commercial pressure has clearly caused Boeing to behave differently in this case, and turn both a safe product and a safe certification process into unsafe ones.
There is no way that the system that certified the above families of aircraft when properly deployed would have allowed a change to control architecture with a seriously unacceptable failure probability, and an even more seriously unacceptable failure severity impact.
I've worked in such a regulatory environment all my life.
That sort of paradigm shift doesn't happen randomly.

Someone, somewhere in Boeing is very seriously culpable here, and for clarity, it isn't the line employees or flight test pilots. It's leadership.

ALL of their other products are so fundamentally safe that the same pilot pool who have been so heavily castigated on here are capable of flying all of them to exemplar levels of safety, despite genuine concerns that training levels are being eroded.
With the MAX, the differentiator is not the pilots - it's the aircraft, and its manufacturer.
Beyond question.

And for the poster above who appears to imply that the whole MAX saga is a conspiracy theory cooked up by EASA to stop the MAX flying in Europe I have only one observation.

Emotionally intelligent people, and organisations, once they recognise that something is seriously wrong, will typically bare their chests (or souls) and openly declare their weaknesses and solicit help to overcome them.
The multinational I work for having been implicated in a bribery scandal, bared its chest, and opened its soul to investigators. Its changed our corporate DNA forever.
When Airbus got caught up in the same type of bribery scandal, they too bared their chests.
At least if you are open and transparent, you get to keep at least one hand on the sword as you fall on it.

Boeing leadership have just not exhibited this behaviour.
And whilst the situation remains so opaque, you can bet your ass that the inevitable consequence is that external bodies will turn over the stones that Boeing don't seem to want to turn by themselves.
Trust, once broken, is surpassingly hard to rebuild, and will only be repaired once the appropriate openness, honesty and admission of culpability are displayed.
That's just reality.

I think it's really, really sad for the oh so many people at Boeing doing their best to make this right. My thoughts and best wishes are with you (as they also are with the families of the victims)

Poster Revelation posted early on in the saga wondering if the Boeing leadership's "hang on and brazen it out" approach would prove successful in the long term.
Rev, have you had any more thoughts on this?

Rgds



I agree entirely with what you have written here.

What really saddens me to write is I am seeing companies replicating the model that Boeing used for this upgrade to the 737. Our aerospace industry is going to suffer a Bacardi step in safety over the coming years.

Groundings of new or upgraded aircraft are going to become more common place over the next ten to fifteen years whilst the industry relearns what needs to be done to maintain safety. The industry has become complacent due to how safe air travel has become.
Every days a school day.
 
lowbank
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:10 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:52 am

Alfons wrote:
ACATROYAL wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
At this point and with these latest revelations I'm just happy to be alive from the Norwegian MAX flight I took in January. One wonders what else have they brushed under the carpet besides the MCAS. Rest assured I will not be boarding Boeing MAX ever again.


Yes I totally agree!! I also wonder what other little demons they decided to quietly cover up...


I don't think there are many other little demons. There are so many past Boeing employees who came out of their holes lately and started to divulge information about things not kosher on the MAX which are case related. I believe that other would have come out too, if there'd be other little demons about the MAX which are not related to the new engines and MCAS. But I hear nothing else... .

I'm more scared about any future clean sheet designs (777x etc.), if they have been created by the same corporate culture.


Me too, that’s the massive concern to me.
Every days a school day.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:53 am

MSPNWA wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The not properly working manual trim is not a speculation, but a fact, on the EASA list. The exceptions from the FAR pilot machine Interface rules are a fact. The cockpit error displays, error messages and so on do not fulfill current FARs, that is why all other Boeing frames moved to EICAS. Exactly what I am talking about, Boeing playing chicken.


Oh the trim wheel debate is fact? Because a YouTube video that everyone has access to says so? And here I thought the EASA itself confirmed it as fact after an investigation. Let's just say it crosses step one, and now we'll move to step two--relevancy. How is it relevant with MCAS fixed? Because the EASA says so? If it is, why is the NG allowed to fly with the same alleged relevant problem? Ah, not so relevant anymore, expect for maybe keeping a foreign plane grounded obviously.

Oh, the pilot interface exception is now a factual, relevant issue worthy of grounding? Care to show up a link to where that is stated?

You are continuing to prove my point. Your claims are not relevant problems, let alone problems worthy of grounding. Every plane out there has "relevant problems" according to your broad definition. Forcing Boeing/etc. to prove that that there are no other issues isn't reasonable.


So you recommend to ground the NG too?

EASA wants the trim wheel fixed, the MCAS failure mode showed plainly that it does not work. That is the regulator that tells Boeing what goes or not goes in an important part of the world. The FAA is that scandal ridden that their view is plainly irrelevant.
 
TaromA380
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:05 am

When (if) the Max will be delivered to customers, will Boeing give some of the purchase price back to the airline ?

I mean not only the delay impacted the business case but instead of delivering a « normal » plane they will deliver the worst famed plane in history which no doubt will affect again the business case at least until some time when people forget.

Boeing offering a hefty non-contractual discount at delivery because delivering not only a late but hampered tool for making money would avoid and settle unanticipated fiasco consequences on the mid and long term.

I mean imagine you’re the CEO of an airline planning to get delivered a bunch of planes that passengers will avoid at some degree. You cannot make money with them and they have no value on resale. But you have to pay the full contractual price. You will do it because you have signed. But this situation looks like business sabotage if the manufacturer doesn’t discount the bad product at delivery.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:41 am

How does this end? I am beginning to wonder if the Max ever makes it back into service. This is far worse than the 787 and DC10 groundings imho.
 
sgrow787
Posts: 437
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:45 am

AirlineCritic wrote:
I wonder about one aspect of all the flight and simulator tests. When the test pilots go through systems and aircraft situations in the sky or in the simulator, I am certain that MCAS was part of those tests. However, were they testing (a) MCAS actions as specified or (b) MCAS actions with erroneous sensors? At least judging by what we know today, it sounds too dangerous to do the latter in a real airplane, but I'm not sure they realised the situation at the time. I remember that the Boeing analysis did not consider the entire cockpit situation (all the alarms, for instance) but did they not try this at all anywhere, or tried it in a different way?

From my perspective, what could have happened is one of:

1/ There was only testing of the normal conditions in MCAS. In that case the recent message leaks will be referring to regular operation of MCAS, not what the Ethiopian and Lion Air pilots experienced. But in my opinion that would be a serious mistake in testing a new aircraft, not testing the fault conditions.

2/ There was only sim testing of MCAS, and they included support in the SIM for a sensor failure. In this case the leaked messages refer to a more life-like situation of a MCAS failure. But how close to reality was this? Did they enable it upon take-off, at low altitude, or only later? In hindsight, enabling it for take-off would have exposed the situation. Unless the simulator support was not somehow accurate, and did not cause all the other alarms to go off etc.

3/ There was also flight testing of the MCAS, but performed at safe altitude to give space for recovery in time. Again, the confusing cockpit situation would not have had the same effect as in reality.

4/ There was proper testing of MCAS in a real aircraft, even for take off and at low altitude. This might have been deemed to unsafe to do, however.


I think we don't know for certain yet if the simulation Mr. Forkner was running was for a failed AOA sensor. We would like to think it was, since the contrary opens pandoras box, akin to the architecture black hole related to the microprocessor data flow/lockup issue.

It's interesting that the leak of the IM exchange is just a day after the report that Muilenberg is "ready" for his Oct 29/30 testimony. Did someone's stomach get sick of the thought of the Boeing CEO pulling off another "safe plane safer" illusion.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
mjoelnir
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Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:59 am

sgrow787 wrote:
AirlineCritic wrote:
I wonder about one aspect of all the flight and simulator tests. When the test pilots go through systems and aircraft situations in the sky or in the simulator, I am certain that MCAS was part of those tests. However, were they testing (a) MCAS actions as specified or (b) MCAS actions with erroneous sensors? At least judging by what we know today, it sounds too dangerous to do the latter in a real airplane, but I'm not sure they realised the situation at the time. I remember that the Boeing analysis did not consider the entire cockpit situation (all the alarms, for instance) but did they not try this at all anywhere, or tried it in a different way?

From my perspective, what could have happened is one of:

1/ There was only testing of the normal conditions in MCAS. In that case the recent message leaks will be referring to regular operation of MCAS, not what the Ethiopian and Lion Air pilots experienced. But in my opinion that would be a serious mistake in testing a new aircraft, not testing the fault conditions.

2/ There was only sim testing of MCAS, and they included support in the SIM for a sensor failure. In this case the leaked messages refer to a more life-like situation of a MCAS failure. But how close to reality was this? Did they enable it upon take-off, at low altitude, or only later? In hindsight, enabling it for take-off would have exposed the situation. Unless the simulator support was not somehow accurate, and did not cause all the other alarms to go off etc.

3/ There was also flight testing of the MCAS, but performed at safe altitude to give space for recovery in time. Again, the confusing cockpit situation would not have had the same effect as in reality.

4/ There was proper testing of MCAS in a real aircraft, even for take off and at low altitude. This might have been deemed to unsafe to do, however.


I think we don't know for certain yet if the simulation Mr. Forkner was running was for a failed AOA sensor. We would like to think it was, since the contrary opens pandoras box, akin to the architecture black hole related to the microprocessor data flow/lockup issue.


I think your Pandoras box has been opened a while ago. Dismissed by many posters as the bit flip issue.

sgrow787 wrote:
It's interesting that the leak of the IM exchange is just a day after the report that Muilenberg is "ready" for his Oct 29/30 testimony. Did someone's stomach get sick of the thought of the Boeing CEO pulling off another "safe plane safer" illusion.


Perhaps Boeing realized that Dennis Muilenburg could be hit with a question regarding this issue, if the DOJ knew congress could know.
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 511
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2009 2:49 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:00 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
If the sim was running properly, accurately duplicating the MAX's flying qualities, then it indicates that Boeing was aware that MCAS was doing something that it shouldn't have, something that would presumably occur on the real aircraft. If the sim wasn't running properly, then Boeing knew that the sim wasn't providing proper data and they needed to go back and rerun their simulations, collect more data, etc. Am I evaluating this correctly?

Thanks,

Bob


One thing that slightly puzzles me is that these pilots were flying in the MAX simulators and finding MCAS trim issue, but my understanding was that MAX simulators sold to operators DID NOT simulate MCAS at all? Did Boeing edit out MCAS in the simulators sold to operators?


I would assume that the simulator version sold to the airlines was cleaned of MCAS. It is Boeing who supplies the data to the simulator manufacturer and pilots were not supposed to know about MCAS.
That is pretty much what I am thinking.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 
SEU
Posts: 269
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:01 pm

SteelChair wrote:
How does this end? I am beginning to wonder if the Max ever makes it back into service. This is far worse than the 787 and DC10 groundings imho.


It always was.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9391
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:06 pm

astuteman wrote:
Aither wrote:
In a way It's kind of reassuring that employees found the issue. It shows the testings are not done by totally incompetent people.
The big question is what happened next ?


This is the bit that tweaks me.
I generally stay off these threads because they are typically toxic, depressing, repetitive, and unnaturally fixated with global training standards

But you look at the Boeing commercial product range and they are all almost universally safety benchmarks for their class.
Boeing 777? Benchmark safety
Boeing 787? Benchmark safety
Most tellingly
Boeing 737NG? Benchmark safety. I get the trim wheel thing, but the stats don't lie. 10's of millions of flights between fatal accidents.

Boeing clearly know how to operate a product certification process successfully, and it is testament to all those hard working and dedicated Boeing employees that they do so.
And that is the disturbing, and I presume upsetting, thing about the fatal MAX/MCAS saga for those dedicated employees.

The commercial pressure has clearly caused Boeing to behave differently in this case, and turn both a safe product and a safe certification process into unsafe ones.
There is no way that the system that certified the above families of aircraft when properly deployed would have allowed a change to control architecture with a seriously unacceptable failure probability, and an even more seriously unacceptable failure severity impact.
I've worked in such a regulatory environment all my life.
That sort of paradigm shift doesn't happen randomly.

Someone, somewhere in Boeing is very seriously culpable here, and for clarity, it isn't the line employees or flight test pilots. It's leadership.

ALL of their other products are so fundamentally safe that the same pilot pool who have been so heavily castigated on here are capable of flying all of them to exemplar levels of safety, despite genuine concerns that training levels are being eroded.
With the MAX, the differentiator is not the pilots - it's the aircraft, and its manufacturer.
Beyond question.

And for the poster above who appears to imply that the whole MAX saga is a conspiracy theory cooked up by EASA to stop the MAX flying in Europe I have only one observation.

Emotionally intelligent people, and organisations, once they recognise that something is seriously wrong, will typically bare their chests (or souls) and openly declare their weaknesses and solicit help to overcome them.
The multinational I work for having been implicated in a bribery scandal, bared its chest, and opened its soul to investigators. Its changed our corporate DNA forever.
When Airbus got caught up in the same type of bribery scandal, they too bared their chests.
At least if you are open and transparent, you get to keep at least one hand on the sword as you fall on it.

Boeing leadership have just not exhibited this behaviour.
And whilst the situation remains so opaque, you can bet your ass that the inevitable consequence is that external bodies will turn over the stones that Boeing don't seem to want to turn by themselves.
Trust, once broken, is surpassingly hard to rebuild, and will only be repaired once the appropriate openness, honesty and admission of culpability are displayed.
That's just reality.

I think it's really, really sad for the oh so many people at Boeing doing their best to make this right. My thoughts and best wishes are with you (as they also are with the families of the victims)

Poster Revelation posted early on in the saga wondering if the Boeing leadership's "hang on and brazen it out" approach would prove successful in the long term.
Rev, have you had any more thoughts on this?

Rgds


If you talk about benchmark safety at Boeing frames, the 787 battery issue should perhaps have been a stark warning, that the FAA was loosing control of Boeing. The benchmark safety was perhaps not a Boeing but an USA benchmark safety, until the FAA slept the rains on Boeing.
 
Ertro
Posts: 117
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:28 pm

AirlineCritic wrote:
From my perspective, what could have happened is one of:...


All your cases were from situations where they were testing MCAS either in how it operates normally or how it operates when there is some failure like AoA sensor. However if they would be testing MCAS one way or the another I find it hard to believe that they wouldn't be prebriefed to exactly what the test is they are running and in that briefing there would be very detailed discussion of what the MCAS was supposed or not supposed to do and what to look for in the flight. Pilots would be instructed to observe something detailed how the MCAS behaves on this testcase or react in some predetermined way to see the outcome of what happens if pilots react in 5 different ways to the same problem.

However since the activation of MCAS came as total surprise I find all of this hard to believe.

The most logical conclusion is that they were testing something completely different thing. Nothing MCAS related at all. Nobody in cockpit or in the simulator operator room had any idea the MCAS was about to kick into action on this simulated flight. And even in the evening at hotel after the flight and postbriefing and writing all the reports of what they need to write after simulator session they were not absolutely sure what they experienced was MCAS. And this happened twice on different pilots on different simulator flights.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4018
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 1:53 pm

We repeatedly have had posters, fortunately they seem to have retreated, who assert the only responsibility companies have is to make money for their stockholders. The case that their thinking is as hollow as the results is becoming more obvious. I follow aviation as a fan, rather than sport teams. The game of aviation is truly one of the marvels of human endeavor. Somehow in the process of winning as often as possible is even more important that making money at it. Companies need both, winning and making enough money to play the next game. Avoidable crashes are worse than losing, they put a company out of the game. There is no excuse for a company to put a plane out there that they know will crash. Boeing's WWII planes were famously crash resistant. My fantasy is that reality and regulators will require the Chicago Wall Street Mafia to sell Boeing Commercial. Where is a Berkshire Buffet?

Astuteman - thanks for that post.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
oschkosch
Posts: 578
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:30 pm

The report on cnn is not very encouraging!


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/18/busi ... index.html

For Boeing, a very bad 2019 keeps getting worse. And potentially much more expensive.

Boeing is already on record that it is counting on getting approval for its grounded 737 Max to fly again by the end of this year. But that apparently became more difficult Friday after the FAA demanded that the aircraft maker explain why it did not disclose that some of its employees had concerns about the safety of the plane during the certification process in 2016.

If this latest news causes delays in the approval for the plane to return to service, it will be more than another black eye for Boeing. It will be a huge financial hit that could cause it to temporarily halt production of its bestselling plane, drastically increasing the costs and losses from the crisis.


And I do ask myself how they will report positive third quarter figures when they have literally no deliveries?

Friday's news comes just ahead of Boeing's third-quarter earnings report Wednesday.

After reporting a $3.7 billion loss second quarter loss due to the charge related to the grounding of the 737 Max, the company is forecast to return to profitability.






Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
BravoOne
Posts: 4094
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:48 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
If the sim was running properly, accurately duplicating the MAX's flying qualities, then it indicates that Boeing was aware that MCAS was doing something that it shouldn't have, something that would presumably occur on the real aircraft. If the sim wasn't running properly, then Boeing knew that the sim wasn't providing proper data and they needed to go back and rerun their simulations, collect more data, etc. Am I evaluating this correctly?

Thanks,

Bob


One thing that slightly puzzles me is that these pilots were flying in the MAX simulators and finding MCAS trim issue, but my understanding was that MAX simulators sold to operators DID NOT simulate MCAS at all? Did Boeing edit out MCAS in the simulators sold to operators?


You are correct and no simulators emulated MCAS until just recnetly and I have to think that this facet has not been certified for lesson delivery as of this date. The simulation the Forkner spoke of in his text was undoubtedly the ECAB over at Boeing Fields Flight Test facility. It is not certified for crew training, just flight test and evaluation. Boeing typically does not "sell" simulators to the customer. The customer contract a sim manufacture to build their individual simulator. For example CAE builds the model and in the process buys a data pack from Boeing that lays out the design, performance, and other data needed to put the whole package together for delivery. The sim customer will in turn do numerous flyouts prior to acceptance, Finally after delivery to the customers training center the regulatory authority for that country (FAA, EASA, CAA) will send a team to evaluate the sims degree of emulation and fidelity and approve it for training. The FAA Nation Simulator Team is based in ATL, GA. One caveat, Boeing sometimes delivers a sim to the customer as part of a purchase incentive program, but this is somewhat rare.
 
chiad
Posts: 1316
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:58 pm

When reading Seattle Times reporting I feel less and less sure that the MAX will ever RTS.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... isled-faa/
 
User avatar
Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:01 pm

aerolimani wrote:
The bombshell is that the chief technical pilot comes to understand that MCAS has been changed to operate over the speed range all the way down to 0.2 Mach. Thus, the system is no longer what he represented it to be, to the FAA. He realizes this, and yet we know that Boeing never went back to the FAA to say anything about the change. So, now we have definitive proof of at least two Boeing employees with knowledge of the changes to MCAS, and who are in a position to understand that this is something which ought to be reported to the FAA.

I see why you think of this in a bombshell, but the text just confirms the accusations of a WaPo article months ago saying the same things about Boeing not telling FAA about the MCAS changes, but at the time the story was attributed to unnamed sources.

In essence many have treated this as a part of the story for months now, yet some of the same people who made a big thing of the WaPo report and treated it as gospel now treat this as a new Revelation(TM) as well.

The recent Reuters report ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKBN1WX25G ) says:

A person briefed on the matter said Boeing failed to turn over the documents to the FAA for four months and that the Justice Department is also in possession of the messages.

Boeing said on Friday Muilenburg had called FAA Administrator Steve Dickson to respond to the concerns raised in his letter and assured him that the company “is taking every step possible to safely return the MAX to service.”

It said it had produced the document containing a former Boeing employee’s statements to the appropriate investigating authority earlier this year, and brought it to the attention of the Department of Transportation on Thursday.

Boeing has been cooperating with the House of Representatives Transportation & Infrastructure Committee’s probe into the 737 MAX and will continue to do so in investigations by U.S. authorities, the company said.

Boeing turned the documents over to the U.S. Department of Justice and the FBI in February, one source said.

It seems to me then that information in the document containing the IMs probably was the source of the WaPo article months ago, since it was in the hands of DoT and FBI months ago.

I have similar feelings about the JATR report.

We've had months of posts saying "the only way this could have happened is if Boeing did X" and the JATR report confirms many of those kinds of statements were correct.

I guess this means people post a lot of things not really believing what they are saying, because now they act as if the confirmation changes their view of the situation.

astuteman wrote:
The commercial pressure has clearly caused Boeing to behave differently in this case, and turn both a safe product and a safe certification process into unsafe ones.

The way I would phrase it is: money grubbing managers and submissive engineers have turned a safe product and some aspects of a safe certification process into unsafe ones.

astuteman wrote:
Poster Revelation posted early on in the saga wondering if the Boeing leadership's "hang on and brazen it out" approach would prove successful in the long term.
Rev, have you had any more thoughts on this?

I still think this is the approach they will follow.

I also said several times that it was a risky strategy, and that once it's all over the CEO will be a sacrificial lamb.

I still feel both are true.

I'd still be really surprised to see some sort of "come to Jesus" teary confession from the Boeing leadership.

oschkosch wrote:
Boeing is already on record that it is counting on getting approval for its grounded 737 Max to fly again by the end of this year. But that apparently became more difficult Friday after the FAA demanded that the aircraft maker explain why it did not disclose that some of its employees had concerns about the safety of the plane during the certification process in 2016.

The above Reuters article says:

Boeing said on Friday Muilenburg had called FAA Administrator Steve Dickson to respond to the concerns raised in his letter and assured him that the company “is taking every step possible to safely return the MAX to service.”

Clearly damage control is in effect.

Still, that must have been one interesting phone call.

Who wants to bet lawyers were listening in?
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:26 pm

chiad wrote:
When reading Seattle Times reporting I feel less and less sure that the MAX will ever RTS.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... isled-faa/

The way I read the article, Forkner is serving the role of the picture perfect fall guy.

This all lines up for a Hollywood or Pulitzer story: Man swizzling ice cold grey goose lays the seeds for his own destruction.

Ed: Forkner didn't design or implement any aspect of MCAS, but he did know about its "rampant" trimming in unexpected parts of the flight envelope (low speed regime instead of "snap turn" high G environment) and had the responsibility to communicate this to pilots via training material but did not do so, instead he argued with FAA that pilots should not be informed.

It's interesting that he "lawyered up" right from the start. I'm not sure if not talking helps or hurts his cause. It does draw attention to him.

Clearly there could be others in the picture who deserve to take a fall, but as of right now it seems the media and the Congress are converging on him as being the fall guy, which in a perverse way helps Boeing as it takes attention away from the money grubbing managers who were responsible for creating the pressure on everyone on the project.

TFA also says:

The copy of the instant message chat provided by Boeing to government officials was saved as an email in the Skype for Business messaging system at almost 7 p.m. on November 15, 2016, immediately after the texts were sent.

... which is what I guessed in a post yesterday.

My current employer does the same thing, it's a not so subtle reminder that they are recording everything you type in to Skype for Business.
Last edited by Revelation on Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:43 pm

Sounds like they ran out of time and that led to a lack of communication between the designers, test pilots, chief pilots and regulators. The issues that came up were never resolved among that group to their mutual and complete agreement.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:55 pm

What was the scenario referred to in the exchange? A normal firing of MCAS at M .2, or the fatal scenario of a misfire of MCAS with a failed AOA vane? Hiding the normal operation of MCAS is one thing, but it still doesn't answer the question of why the misfire of a major control surface was not considered.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
The bombshell is that the chief technical pilot comes to understand that MCAS has been changed to operate over the speed range all the way down to 0.2 Mach. Thus, the system is no longer what he represented it to be, to the FAA. He realizes this, and yet we know that Boeing never went back to the FAA to say anything about the change. So, now we have definitive proof of at least two Boeing employees with knowledge of the changes to MCAS, and who are in a position to understand that this is something which ought to be reported to the FAA.

I see why you think of this in a bombshell, but the text just confirms the accusations of a WaPo article months ago saying the same things about Boeing not telling FAA about the MCAS changes, but at the time the story was attributed to unnamed sources.

In essence many have treated this as a part of the story for months now, yet some of the same people who made a big thing of the WaPo report and treated it as gospel now treat this as a new Revelation(TM) as well.

The bombshell is that we, the public, are now no longer looking at anonymous sources, theories, and suppositions. This cannot now be downplayed or dismissed as a possible “honest mistake.”

The technique of “move along, nothing to see here,” which we have already seen some posters attempting to deploy, is not going to work either. This is a big deal.

Edited to add: similarly, suggestions that this is “old news“ also fall flat.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:10 pm

"The MCAS is going rampant on me in the simulators"

"Its trimming itself like crazy"


Did Lionair Maintenance had a go at the sim's AoA sensor . . .
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:11 pm

MCAS firing at Mach .2 I would assume to be approach to stall in a climb when the plane would have shed a ton of speed - that has been one of the main scenarios of MCAS use we have been debating for months. If that is an approach to stall situation that should not be a surprise that MCAS fires then.

At 10,000' Mach .2 is only 126 Knots - I think that is pretty well the stall speed of a clean 737 - shouldn't MCAS be working then?

Maybe the two pilots in the text messages are just idiots and didn't understand when MCAS would be working.

Wasn't this MCAS's reason for being in the first place and then high speed turns were added later or was it the other way around?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:16 pm

aerolimani wrote:
Revelation wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
The bombshell is that the chief technical pilot comes to understand that MCAS has been changed to operate over the speed range all the way down to 0.2 Mach. Thus, the system is no longer what he represented it to be, to the FAA. He realizes this, and yet we know that Boeing never went back to the FAA to say anything about the change. So, now we have definitive proof of at least two Boeing employees with knowledge of the changes to MCAS, and who are in a position to understand that this is something which ought to be reported to the FAA.

I see why you think of this in a bombshell, but the text just confirms the accusations of a WaPo article months ago saying the same things about Boeing not telling FAA about the MCAS changes, but at the time the story was attributed to unnamed sources.

In essence many have treated this as a part of the story for months now, yet some of the same people who made a big thing of the WaPo report and treated it as gospel now treat this as a new Revelation(TM) as well.

The bombshell is that we, the public, are now no longer looking at anonymous sources, theories, and suppositions.

Thing is, earlier posts that these reports were based on "anonymous sources, theories, and suppositions" got treated with animosity which means they were already treated as being the truth.

You can't have it both ways.

aerolimani wrote:
This cannot now be downplayed or dismissed as a possible "honest mistake."

From what I am seeing, the narrative now shifts from "honest mistake" to "one bad actor swilling grey goose hid the truth then lawyered up".

I sure hope that lawyer can come up with something better than "all he was saying is that the simulator was broken".

The timing of this news reeks of damage control, it gives the resulting storm some time to dissipate before DM has to testify in front of Congress.

It'll be very interesting to see if they haul Forkner in front of Congress, and if so, he continues to plead the 5th.

If nothing else, Hollywood script writers will be tuned in.

Tom Hanks already did Sully, maybe he ends up doing Forkner too.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:36 pm

DenverTed wrote:
What was the scenario referred to in the exchange? A normal firing of MCAS at M .2, or the fatal scenario of a misfire of MCAS with a failed AOA vane? Hiding the normal operation of MCAS is one thing, but it still doesn't answer the question of why the misfire of a major control surface was not considered.

I need to go back and get the context to understand who was actually drinking and were they actually doing regulated work while intoxicated.
 
rocket45
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:47 pm

A Question whose answer I may have missed: Who in Boeing AUTHORIZED and TESTED the change in MCAS from the original benign activation to the new dangerous upgraded system?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:49 pm

Where are we on production rates? Are they still building? (Yes) At what rate? Fitting out? Painting? Or shipping green? To where?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:05 pm

Revelation wrote:
Thing is, earlier posts that these reports were based on "anonymous sources, theories, and suppositions" got treated with animosity which means they were already treated as being the truth.


So somebody somewhere has been whispering something without details and some other people have tried to discredit them. Therefore I that haven't heard these whisperings and defintely not known what they are about cannot think that anything important has happened when I for the first time get to know what is it that somebody somewhere far away from me has been whispering and what exactly are the important details. Does not compute.

Revelation wrote:
You can't have it both ways.


This is about the most infuriating American phrase ever. I don't think any other language has similar phrase. Americans somehow think that issues have two sides. It is not true. Most issues have 100 different sides and I can believe 50 of them to a differing degree.

Even more infuriating when multiple people are lumped together to form a single "you" and now the sentence means that two different people cannot have different ideas about issues that are not even the same. But whatever it takes to downplay the importance of a genuine bombshell.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:07 pm

skipness1E wrote:
Where are we on production rates? Are they still building? (Yes) At what rate? Fitting out? Painting? Or shipping green? To where?


Yes still building, see the thread linked below.

viewtopic.php?p=21728741#p21728741
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ubeema
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:07 pm

Revelation wrote:
It's interesting that he "lawyered up" right from the start. I'm not sure if not talking helps or hurts his cause. It does draw attention to him.

Clearly there could be others in the picture who deserve to take a fall, but as of right now it seems the media and the Congress are converging on him as being the fall guy, which in a perverse way helps Boeing as it takes attention away from the money grubbing managers who were responsible for creating the pressure on everyone on the project.
Would be foolish not to lawyer up. Forkner is between a rock and hard place and could be railroaded by Boeing. He has rights and should look out for himself. The “Aero” guys, Vince, and Christine mentioned in the Skype exchange have most likely been questioned by FBI. IMO Forkner would the witness that delivers the guys at the top who should have taken the proper course of action in regards to MCAS disclosures to regulator.
TFA also says:
The copy of the instant message chat provided by Boeing to government officials was saved as an email in the Skype for Business messaging system at almost 7 p.m. on November 15, 2016, immediately after the texts were sent.

... which is what I guessed in a post yesterday.

My current employer does the same thing, it's a not so subtle reminder that they are recording everything you type in to Skype for Business.
Skype automatically records conversations no way around it. However the company can chose how long that information is preserved (cannot be deleted). Boeing has a duty to preserve beyond most corporations so yeah that could haunt them if nefarious things have happened
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:10 pm

skipness1E wrote:
Where are we on production rates? Are they still building? (Yes) At what rate? Fitting out? Painting? Or shipping green? To where?

I don't think anything has changed since https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... -concerns/ so we are at 42/month.

We have lots of pictures ( https://www.google.com/search?q=737+moses+lake ) of countless painted MAXes sitting at Moses Lake WA.

The number is certainly over 100.
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astuteman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
The way I would phrase it is: money grubbing managers and submissive engineers have turned a safe product and some aspects of a safe certification process into unsafe ones.


I won't argue there. My quote is somewhat digital ….

Revelation wrote:
I still think this is the approach they will follow.

I also said several times that it was a risky strategy, and that once it's all over the CEO will be a sacrificial lamb.

I still feel both are true.


I do too

Revelation wrote:
I'd still be really surprised to see some sort of "come to Jesus" teary confession from the Boeing leadership.


For what its worth I think its too late now.

Rgds
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:38 pm

morrisond wrote:
1) MCAS firing at Mach .2 I would assume to be approach to stall in a climb when the plane would have shed a ton of speed - that has been one of the main scenarios of MCAS use we have been debating for months. If that is an approach to stall situation that should not be a surprise that MCAS fires then.

2) At 10,000' Mach .2 is only 126 Knots - I think that is pretty well the stall speed of a clean 737 - shouldn't MCAS be working then?

3) Maybe the two pilots in the text messages are just idiots and didn't understand when MCAS would be working.

4) Wasn't this MCAS's reason for being in the first place and then high speed turns were added later or was it the other way around?


1) Well, if that scenario is correct, then it clearly was a big surprise to Forkner as he saw trim characteristics that he wasn't expected for subject test protocol. It was also a big surprise to the accident crews. As undoubtedly it would have been a big surprise to any MAX crew.

2) According to the IM exchange, the were at 4000 ft and 230 kts.

3) If these top Boeing Test Pilots are described as "idiots" I wonder how a normal airline crew would be described.

4) No. MCAS was initially designed for the high speed winding turn. Remember, the part of the flight envelope a crew would normally never be expected to see. This was also Forkner’s excuse to have MCAS reference removed from the pilot operating manual (FCOM).


JATR Report wrote:
Observation O3.4-A: The original implementation of MCAS was driven primarily
by its ability to provide the B737 MAX with FAA-compliant flight characteristics
at high speed. An unaugmented design would have been at risk of not meeting
14 CFR part 25 maneuvering characteristics requirements due to aerodynamics.

Observation O3.4-B: Extension of MCAS to the low-speed and 1g environment
during the flight program was due to unacceptable stall characteristics with STS
only. The possibility of a pitch-up tendency during approach to stall was
identified for the flaps-up configuration prior to the implementation of MCAS.
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JetBuddy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:47 pm

astuteman wrote:

Revelation wrote:
I'd still be really surprised to see some sort of "come to Jesus" teary confession from the Boeing leadership.


For what its worth I think its too late now.

Rgds


When they eventually have to face a hearing in front of a very upset and bipartisan Congress, I think that "come to Jesus" moment will have to surface. There's not going to be any softening of questioning or push back from across the aisle on this. It's going to be a full assault from both flanks on Boeing.

I can't even imagine the stress Mullenberg is experiencing these days. I'm glad I'm not walking in his shoes.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:26 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
When they eventually have to face a hearing in front of a very upset and bipartisan Congress, I think that "come to Jesus" moment will have to surface. There's not going to be any softening of questioning or push back from across the aisle on this. It's going to be a full assault from both flanks on Boeing.

In my opinion, the reason this document was released now was to take a lot of the steam out of the made-for TV Congressional attacks.

The bi-partisan nature actually helps Boeing since one of the two parties is noticeably pro-business.

The fact that Boeing is the biggest single US exporter and represents a lot of jobs and a lot of votes.

Sure, he will feel the heat, but that's about it, IMO.

JetBuddy wrote:
I can't even imagine the stress Mullenberg is experiencing these days. I'm glad I'm not walking in his shoes.

DM is being stage managed by the best legal and PR damage control firms that money can buy.

He's already earned enough money to be sure he and his progeny will never be in lack for the rest of their days.

He'll be just fine.

I'd suggest being concerned about Forkner who is now fending off Boeing, Congress and the raging media while keeping the Grey Goose in stock all on a WN first officer's salary.
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Forgedias
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:47 pm

You think it can't get more worse for Boeing after all they are under civil and criminal investigation. Have several class action lawsuits pending. Have companies canceling plane orders. And now this news. It was very apparent that Boeing wanted to get the Max re-certified by November and get the Maxes flying at the end of this year. Its not happening anymore. The FAA were pushing hard to get the Max in the air as soon as possible. But these constant bombshells from Boeing is fracturing the close relationship that Boeing and the FAA have. Think about this. If Brutus backstabs Ceasar enough times, how many is too many?

I think by now, everyone knows that Boeing is guilty of misleading the FAA and the World of the Max. Some of you here probably rightly have said they are guilty of criminal negligence at the least and can go way up to fraud to deliberately hiding key information from regulators. This new revelation is now the smoking gun. And even more problematic for Boeing is the year that this message originated from. 2016, 4 months before the Max was certified.

And for Boeing that is probably the worst news that it could receive and probably why it took so long for the FAA to receive this new information since they were trying to re-certify the Max. The FAA in turn look just as bad since they have been steadily pushing the mantra that the Max will come back into service in 2019 and so this is another black eye to their reputation since its obvious that Boeing is still withholding information to them and the trust that should exist between Company and regulator doesn't exist. How does the FAA now return the Max to service with this bombshell? They can't. There is no political will to do so anymore, not after Boeing yet again lied to the FAA and clearly showed they were lying to them all along.

And so with Boeing, desperate to bring the Max back to service will now have to push that time table to 2020. Which means more dominoes will have to tumble. Boeing cannot continue to build 42 Maxes every month. They already have over 400 sitting in airfields waiting to be delivered. And Airlines themselves who have ordered the Max DO NOT want to have a huge deluge of new planes to come online. They need time to integrate every new plane they receive so for Boeing those 400 planes will take months to be delivered. Which means the Boeing factory that produces the Max will have to be shut down and jobs furloughed and the suppliers who rely on the Max for their revenue will suffer and they too will have to furlough workers.

And what the legal side? We already understand that this news will bring about criminal prosecution. Some of you have predicted this, but until there was a smoking gun of sorts which the news article by Reuters revealed. It was still debatable whether criminal charges would of been brought forward. Remember, very rarely do we see any criminal charges in the Airline sector. Well now we will see some. The big one for Boeing is that there is now proof that Boeing deliberately hid the flaws of the MCAS to regulators and that a certain pilot who now flies for Southwest, Mark Forkner who was one of the technical pilots flying the Max during its certification. Much of the texts exposed leave him in a dangerous position. He has already taken the 5th amendment to protect himself from self incrimination. But its a little too late since he was behind the removal of the MCAS from any of the flying manuals for the Max. Its all there in the texts and emails.

Then there is Boeing who will also be liable. And Dennis Muilenburg will be taking the fall for this. He was President and CEO and Chairman while the Max was under development. With his removal of his Chairman title, its obvious that Boeing is now trying to limit how much liability the board themselves will have to face. Muilenburg will certainly see some jail time. But if the Board themselves do not get cleaned out, then nothing will change with Boeing.

But what about the Civil side of liability. That is where Boeing will suffer the most. Was Boeing Culpable in those Max crashes? The easy answer is yes they were. But were they criminally culpable for those crashes and that is much harder to prove normally. These new revelations makes that case MUCH easier to lay out.

Let me lay it out. Boeing can come out and say, we are sorry, we messed up about the MCAS and we will fix it. We never saw the unintended side effects of the downward push of the MCAS and never expected it behave this way. So they are culpable of the issues but not criminally responsible for it.

Now with these new revelations that they knew about the issues of the MCAS way back in 2016 4 months before the Max was certified and did nothing to warn the Airlines or regulators about it and deliberately hid the issues by removing it from flying manuals. That is criminal culpability.

And that is where Boeing will suffer the most. Months ago most can agree that the lawsuits would be suing for 1-2 billion, maybe as high as 4 billion. Its now WAY worse because now Boeing did a cover up and hid the MCAS issues and lives were lost because of it. More importantly Boeing could of come out when the Indonesian crash happened and said we have a problem with the MCAS and grounded the fleet to fix it, but they lied and said everything is fine and this is where the damages will only increase for Boeing. They deliberately withheld information that could of saved more lives and those lives lost in Ethiopia and the courts will not look kindly to that. Not only did the Reuters article reveal that they knew of the MCAS issues, but they continued to hide that flaw and allowed the Maxes to continue to fly thereby being directly responsible for the deaths in Ethiopia which they could of prevented. Which is where the courts will hit Boeing with Punitive damages for their conduct through failing to reveal the faults of MCAS, hiding it from manuals to prevent expensive retraining of pilots. And deliberately keeping these problems a secret through out the investigations so they could get the Max re-certified as quick as possible. The liability will skyrocket. Think 10 billion or more.

But there is more. Most of us know who Ralph Nadar is. But do you also know that he was behind many laws that dealt with consumer protection. Here is what has done. He was credited for helping to pass the Clean water Act, Freedom of Information Act, Consumer Product Safety Act, Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, Whistleblower Protection Act, and the National Traffic and MotorVehicle Safety Act. Pretty impressive and for Boeing, someone that has become an arch nemesis for them since Nadar lost his niece Samya Stumo in the Ethiopian Crash. And what has Nadar being saying about the Max? Its a deeply flawed plane and shouldn't ever fly again.

Many if not all of you here probably think that is an impossibility. The Max has 5000 orders and Airliners need the plane to update their fleet plans. But when it comes to Nadar I wouldn't be so sure he can't get what he wants. This is very personal for him. And if we think about it. There is one way he can attack the Max and get it grounded permanently. Boeing had to construct a whole new set of flight control laws when they brought the MCAS in. The Max tended to pitch upwards and stall the plane so new Flight Laws had to be written and softwares used to control the pitch. We all know what happened because of this.And this is where Nadar can attack Boeing. Unlike normal Fly by Wire or the force feedback system that Boeing uses. In most cases the pilot can either in Airbus case enable an alternative flight control law to fly the plane or in Boeing's case use excessive force to overcome the flight control envelope system. But the Max behaves differently then any other flight control protection system. And that is where Nadar's arguments can have some traction. Is the Max a safe plane?

Then what about the coming litigation from the Airline companies and potential liability from the unions representing those Airlines. The Union for Southwest is already suing Boeing for lost wages, I won't be lost for other unions to follow suit. But it gets worse for Boeing. The longer this grounding lasts, the more Boeing will need to pay to keep their customers happy and onboard with their orders. Despite what people think. Airlines cannot simply drop their Max orders for a variety of reasons. For one. Airbus doesn't have the slots to replace the Max orders. And ramping up is simply not possible since the supply chain would have to ramp up and that isn't as easy as people think it is. And even if an Airline wanted to cancel their Max orders, the way contracts are worked out, they protect both Boeing and the Airline customer. There is a break up fee for a customer and for Boeing there will be fees for late delivered planes to their customers.

I don't see many Airlines suing Boeing for the undelivered Maxes or the costs associated with grounding their fleet or lost revenue until they can't work out a compromise where Boeing compensates the Airlines for lost revenue which Boeing intends to do. Where I do see Airlines suing Boeing is to break contracts and to avoid costly break up fees. For those Airlines a plan B would need to be readied and another plane option would need to be available for them. And this is where I see the A220 coming in. Already news of Ethiopian Airlines buying 20 A220's is rumored and more should follow since a second FAL is being constructed at Mirabel and the Mobile plant will only keep growing so future slots will become available.

Boeing as a brand and their reputation has been damaged in the public eye. But where the real damage is to their customers, the Airlines. They won't publicly say this. But these revelations have permanently damaged their working relationships. Who has to bear the burden if Boeing planes are unsafe? The Airlines. Their reputations are what they rely on and to have it tarnished in anyway is something that many of them won't forget or forgive lightly.

Remember how quick people here to blame the pilots and the Airlines for these accidents and not Boeing? Think what its like in the public eye and the news out there to see one of your Airlines go down and to have Boeing throw their pilots under the bus. This entire episode will be a case study on NOT how to do business and conduct yourself publicly.
Last edited by Forgedias on Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:01 pm

Forgedias wrote:
You think it can't get more worse for Boeing after all they are under civil and criminal investigation. Have several class action lawsuits pending. Have companies canceling plane orders. And now this news. It was very apparent that Boeing wanted to get the Max re-certified by November and get the Maxes flying at the end of this year. Its not happening anymore. The FAA were pushing hard to get the Max in the air as soon as possible. But these constant bombshells from Boeing is fracturing the close relationship that Boeing and the FAA have. Think about this. If Brutus backstabs Ceasar enough times, how many is too many?

I think by now, everyone knows that Boeing is guilty of misleading the FAA and the World of the Max. Some of you here probably rightly have said they are guilty of criminal negligence at the least and can go way up to fraud to deliberately hiding key information from regulators. This new revelation is now the smoking gun. And even more problematic for Boeing is the year that this message originated from. 2016, 4 months before the Max was certified.

And for Boeing that is probably the worst news that it could receive and probably why it took so long for the FAA to receive this new information since they were trying to re-certify the Max. The FAA in turn look just as bad since they have been steadily pushing the mantra that the Max will come back into service in 2019 and so this is another black eye to their reputation since its obvious that Boeing is still withholding information to them and the trust that should exist between Company and regulator doesn't exist. How does the FAA now return the Max to service with this bombshell? They can't. There is no political will to do so anymore, not after Boeing yet again lied to the FAA and clearly showed they were lying to them all along.

And so with Boeing, desperate to bring the Max back to service will now have to push that time table to 2020. Which means more dominoes will have to tumble. Boeing cannot continue to build 42 Maxes every month. They already have over 400 sitting in airfields waiting to be delivered. And Airlines themselves who have ordered the Max DO NOT want to have a huge deluge of new planes to come online. They need time to integrate every new plane they receive so for Boeing those 400 planes will take months to be delivered. Which means the Boeing factory that produces the Max will have to be shut down and jobs furloughed and the suppliers who rely on the Max for their revenue will suffer and they too will have to furlough workers.

And what the legal side? We already understand that this news will bring about criminal prosecution. Some of you have predicted this, but until there was a smoking gun of sorts which the news article by Reuters revealed. It was still debatable whether criminal charges would of been brought forward. Remember, very rarely do we see any criminal charges in the Airline sector. Well now we will see some. The big one for Boeing is that there is now proof that Boeing deliberately hid the flaws of the MCAS to regulators and that a certain pilot who now flies for Southwest, Mark Forkner who was one of the technical pilots flying the Max during its certification. Much of the texts exposed leave him in a dangerous position. He has already taken the 5th amendment to protect himself from self incrimination. But its a little too late since he was behind the removal of the MCAS from any of the flying manuals for the Max. Its all there in the texts and emails.

Then there is Boeing who will also be liable. And Dennis Muilenburg will be taking the fall for this. He was President and CEO and Chairman while the Max was under development. With his removal of his Chairman title, its obvious that Boeing is now trying to limit how much liability the board themselves will have to face. Muilenburg will certainly see some jail time. But if the Board themselves do not get cleaned out, then nothing will change with Boeing.

But what about the Civil side of liability. That is where Boeing will suffer the most. Was Boeing Culpable in those Max crashes? The easy answer is yes they were. But were they criminally culpable for those crashes and that is much harder to prove normally. These new revelations makes that case MUCH easier to lay out.

Let me lay it out. Boeing can come out and say, we are sorry, we messed up about the MCAS and we will fix it. We never saw the unintended side effects of the downward push of the MCAS and never expected it behave this way. So they are culpable of the issues but not criminally responsible for it.

Now with these new revelations that they new about the issues of the MCAS way back in 2016 4 months before the Max was certified and did nothing to warn the Airlines or regulators about it and deliberately hid the issues by removing it from flying manuals. That is criminal culpability.

And that is where Boeing will suffer the most. Months ago most can agree that the lawsuits would be suing for 1-2 billion, maybe as high as 4 billion. Its now WAY worse because now Boeing did a cover up and hid the MCAS issues and lives were lost because of it. More importantly Boeing could of come out when the Indonesian crash happened and said we have a problem with the MCAS and grounded the fleet to fix it, but they lied and said everything is fine and this is where the damages will only increase for Boeing. They deliberately withheld information that could of saved more lives and those lives lost in Ethiopia and the courts will not look kindly to that. Not only did the Reuters article reveal that they knew of the MCAS issues, but they continued to hide that flaw and allowed the Maxes to continue to fly thereby being directly responsible for the deaths in Ethiopia which they could of prevented. Which is where the courts will hit Boeing with Punitive damages for their conduct through failing to reveal the faults of MCAS, hiding it from manuals to prevent expensive retraining of pilots. And deliberately keeping these problems through out the investigations so they could get the Max re-certified as quick as possible. The liability will skyrocket. Think 10 billion or more.

But there is more. Most of us know who Ralph Nadar is. But do you also know that he was behind many laws that dealt with consumer protection. Here is what has done. He was credited for helping to pass the Clean water Act, Freedom of Information Act, Consumer Product Safety Act, Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, Whistleblower Protection Act, and the National Traffic and MotorVehicle Safety Act. Pretty impressive and for Boeing, someone that has become an arch nemesis for them since Nadar lost his niece Samya Stumo in the Ethiopian Crash. And what has Nadar being saying about the Max? Its a deeply flawed plane and shouldn't ever fly again.

Many if not all of you here probably think that is an impossibility. The Max has 5000 orders and Airliners need the plane to update their fleet plans. But when it comes to Nadar I wouldn't be so sure he can't get what he wants. This is very personal for him. And if we think about it. There is one way he can attack the Max and get it grounded permanently. Boeing had to construct a whole new set of flight control laws when they brought the MCAS in. The Max tended to pitch upwards and stall the plane so new Flight Laws had to be written and softwares used to control the pitch. We all know what happened because of this.And this is where Nadar can attack Boeing. Unlike normal Fly by Wire or the force feedback system that Boeing uses. In most cases the pilot can either in Airbus case enable an alternative flight control law to fly the plane or in Boeing's case use excessive force to overcome the flight control envelope system. But the Max behaves differently then any other flight control protection system. And that is where Nadar's arguments can have some traction. Is the Max a safe plane?

Then what about the coming litigation from the Airline companies and potential liability from the unions representing those Airlines. The Union for Southwest is already suing Boeing for lost wages, I won't be lost for other unions to follow suit. But it gets worse for Boeing. The longer this grounding lasts, the more Boeing will need to pay to keep their customers happy and onboard with their orders. Despite what people think. Airlines cannot simply drop their Max orders for a variety of reasons. For one. Airbus doesn't have the slots to replace the Max orders. And ramping up is simply not possible since the supply chain would have to ramp up and that isn't as easy as people think it is. And even if an Airline wanted to cancel their Max orders, the way contracts are worked out, they protect both Boeing and the Airline customer. There is a break up fee for a customer and for Boeing there will be fees for late delivered planes to their customers.

I don't see many Airlines suing Boeing for the undelivered Maxes or the costs associated with grounding their fleet or lost revenue until they can't work out a compromise where Boeing compensates the Airlines for lost revenue which Boeing intends to do. Where I do see Airlines suing Boeing is to break contracts and to avoid costly break up fees. For those Airlines a plan B would need to be readied and another plane option would need to be available for them. And this is where I see the A220 coming in. Already news of Ethiopian Airlines buying 20 A220's is rumored and more should follow since a second FAL is being constructed at Mirabel and the Mobile plant will only keep growing so future slots will become available.

Boeing as a brand and their reputation has been damaged in the public eye. But where the real damage is to their customers, the Airlines. They won't publicly say this. But these revelations have permanently damaged their working relationships. Who has to bear the burden if Boeing planes are unsafe? The Airlines. Their reputations are what they rely on and to have it tarnished in anyway is something that many of them won't forget or forgive lightly.

Remember how quick people here to blame the pilots and the Airlines for these accidents and not Boeing? Think what its like in the public eye and the news out there to see one of your Airlines go down and to have Boeing throw their pilots under the bus. This entire episode will be a case study on NOT how to do business and conduct yourself publicly.


Great post. But there is even more you didn't mention, like buying off the Max suppliers, like GE, all those LEAPS with nowhere to go.

My rough guess is that, all in, this mistake will cost Boeing $50 billion. They should terminate the Max program right now, scrap all the Max airplanes, and spool up the NG program to buy 4 years of time to develop the NSA. And bring back Alan Mullally to run it all.

Scrapping the Max and replacing the executve suite is the only way to survive. Asap. Will also need massive concessions from labor groups. Post haste.
 
shmerik
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 2:28 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
chiad wrote:
Ed: Forkner didn't design or implement any aspect of MCAS, but he did know about its "rampant" trimming in unexpected parts of the flight envelope (low speed regime instead of "snap turn" high G environment) and had the responsibility to communicate this to pilots via training material but did not do so, instead he argued with FAA that pilots should not be informed.

It's interesting that he "lawyered up" right from the start. I'm not sure if not talking helps or hurts his cause. It does draw attention to him.


His communications with other engineers at Boeing are going to be critical in determining the extent to which people knew of what was going on in the MCAS design process.

From my POV it's always sounded like they were designed into a corner that they discovered late in the game, and somewhere along the line it was pushed through and delivered anyways. Very interested to see what comes of this. If he did report then he surely has other chat logs that show a reaction to his surprise find in the sim.

morrisond wrote:
Maybe the two pilots in the text messages are just idiots and didn't understand when MCAS would be working.


...lol :sarcastic:

and what would that say about the rest of the MAX team if the Chief Technical Pilot is an idiot?
 
cat3appr50
Posts: 183
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:44 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:15 pm

As I understand it, the originally designed MCAS activation rate was 0.6 degrees motion of the horizontal stabilizer in 10 sec. This was as reported placed into the flight software relative to stall protection for high speed maneuvers. This MCAS mode and the noted activation rate was, as reported, communicated to the FAA.

Later, the MCAS activation rate was reportedly changed to 2.4 degrees motion of the horizontal stabilizer in 10 sec. As reported, this change was apparently implemented due to findings of stall issues at lower speeds. That change quadrupled the MCAS activation/horizontal stabilizer motion rate. And, as being reported, did not get communicated to the FAA.

Per the transcript, Mr. Forkner noted on 11/16/16 “MCAS is now active down to M.2”. IMO that then implies, since M.20 would be a low speed stall condition, that the change to 2.4 degrees/10 minutes MCAS activation rate was active on that date. Further, Forkner notes on the same date that “it (i.e. MCAS) is running rampant in the sim” as well as “at 4000’ and at 230 kn and the plane is trimming itself like crazy.” And Gustavsson agrees, by his statement of “that’s what I saw on sim one.” With a designed quadrupled rate change of MCAS, who would not expect, before even flying the sim, that MCAS would likely be “running rampant” and “trimming like crazy” at relatively slow speed. The rate was quadrupled. It doesn’t seem that what was observed was the result of a broken sim needing repair. Just saying. BTW, how many Boeing sims was this 2.4 MCAS activation rate tested on and by how many other sim pilots, given the specific noting by Gustavsson of his (same) experiences on “sim one”. Multiple sims, same radical MCAS behavior per the transcript? Broken sims?

That being said, IMO it is simply staggering that SWA (who I think is a great airline with great pilots) and the SWAPA, after surely reading that transcript that has been released with the Forkner email statements of “I suck at flying” and “so I basically lied to the Regulators (unknowingly)” and Forkner not coming back later assertively to the FAA/Regulators and update them, still maintains Forkner in employment. IMO could very well sadly become a PR nightmare for SWA…sorry…perception, perception. All just my opinion.
 
AAPramugari14
Posts: 21
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:35 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:19 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Great post. But there is even more you didn't mention, like buying off the Max suppliers, like GE, all those LEAPS with nowhere to go.

My rough guess is that, all in, this mistake will cost Boeing $50 billion. They should terminate the Max program right now, scrap all the Max airplanes, and spool up the NG program to buy 4 years of time to develop the NSA. And bring back Alan Mullally to run it all.

Scrapping the Max and replacing the executve suite is the only way to survive. Asap. Will also need massive concessions from labor groups. Post haste.


That was about the dumbest thing I've heard all day. All Boeing needs to do is fix the problem(s) (in the correct manner) and revise training. The legal fallout is something they'll have to deal with for years to come and is unrelated to the aircraft heading back into the skies. If it was done right the first time there might've been some delays in delivery but it would've been far better than this. The problem is corporate culture within Aviation; both accidents have become the catalyst for change. The ultimate outcome from this will be safer aircraft and long overdue changes at the FAA. They've been begging for the proper funding to avoid issues like this. Let us not forget the (unneeded) government shutdown that possibly aided in setting the stage for the latter Ethiopian crash. At the end of the day, there is blame to be placed all around. So much that is wrong with the current state of affairs at airlines/regulators/manufacturers have been revealed. All of this should've been done under circumstances that didn't result in a loss of life but it was not.
 
Forgedias
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:12 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:06 pm

AAPramugari14 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Great post. But there is even more you didn't mention, like buying off the Max suppliers, like GE, all those LEAPS with nowhere to go.

My rough guess is that, all in, this mistake will cost Boeing $50 billion. They should terminate the Max program right now, scrap all the Max airplanes, and spool up the NG program to buy 4 years of time to develop the NSA. And bring back Alan Mullally to run it all.

Scrapping the Max and replacing the executve suite is the only way to survive. Asap. Will also need massive concessions from labor groups. Post haste.


That was about the dumbest thing I've heard all day. All Boeing needs to do is fix the problem(s) (in the correct manner) and revise training. The legal fallout is something they'll have to deal with for years to come and is unrelated to the aircraft heading back into the skies. If it was done right the first time there might've been some delays in delivery but it would've been far better than this. The problem is corporate culture within Aviation; both accidents have become the catalyst for change. The ultimate outcome from this will be safer aircraft and long overdue changes at the FAA. They've been begging for the proper funding to avoid issues like this. Let us not forget the (unneeded) government shutdown that possibly aided in setting the stage for the latter Ethiopian crash. At the end of the day, there is blame to be placed all around. So much that is wrong with the current state of affairs at airlines/regulators/manufacturers have been revealed. All of this should've been done under circumstances that didn't result in a loss of life but it was not.


I'm going to answer this since I don't necessary agree with your assessment but part of the reason why I made my points in the post is the real world issues that Boeing is going to face.

The Boeing Culture as people are now calling it, won't change. Unless the entire board of directors get cleaned out which is looks like it won't since they are now insulating themselves from liability by removing Dennis Muilenburg from his chairman position.

Even if their return to service date gets pushed back to 2020 which is now looking more likely, the impact of those disruptions to the Airlines will continue and for those Airlines. They will continue to lose revenue, they will lose market share and in some cases some of them will go Bankrupt. The damage has been very disruptive for all involved.

The damage to Boeing's reputation isn't yet been calculated. For many of these Airlines, they are committed to the Max even if they now regret buying it. The Max itself is a damaged brand, whether you agree or not. For many of these Airlines, they need to wait months after the Max return to service to understand how damaging this entire episode will be.

Allow me to try to lay it out for everyone. The Max has been in the news all year long. How many of the casual flying public actually look at their tickets and look to see what plane their are flying in? For many I doubt they care or understand the different plane types. But constant bombardment of Max news and problems, how many do you think will actually now care? Most people when they order plane tickets, order it online. When you order a ticket, you see your flight number, your information like date of departure and so forth, but you also see what plane your flying on. How many people do you think when they see the Max tag on their ticket will reconsider and shop around for another plane to ride? Think about it, if enough people decide that they still don't trust a Max and shop around and then another Airline picks up their order. And to a Max operator, this is lost business, lost seats, lost revenue. And for some of these routes, you need to fill them to 80% to break even. So what happens when you can't do that? How long does a Max Operator need to wait for passengers to come back and fly with them again? 1 month? 3 months? 6 months?

The brand that is the Max is damaged, no one can deny this. How damaged is the question and it can only be answered when the Max returns to service. Some of these Airlines have hundreds of Maxes on order. This isn't so easy as saying the Max will recover, fix the corporate culture so this never happens again. There is some huge hurdles for Boeing and the Max to overcome and the question is, will Airlines forgive Boeing for lying to them and hiding the Max troubles from them. And that I don't think will be easy for Boeing to overcome. They truly created a problem that will be generational for Boeing.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1428
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:14 pm

AAPramugari14 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Great post. But there is even more you didn't mention, like buying off the Max suppliers, like GE, all those LEAPS with nowhere to go.

My rough guess is that, all in, this mistake will cost Boeing $50 billion. They should terminate the Max program right now, scrap all the Max airplanes, and spool up the NG program to buy 4 years of time to develop the NSA. And bring back Alan Mullally to run it all.

Scrapping the Max and replacing the executve suite is the only way to survive. Asap. Will also need massive concessions from labor groups. Post haste.


That was about the dumbest thing I've heard all day. All Boeing needs to do is fix the problem(s) (in the correct manner) and revise training. The legal fallout is something they'll have to deal with for years to come and is unrelated to the aircraft heading back into the skies. If it was done right the first time there might've been some delays in delivery but it would've been far better than this. The problem is corporate culture within Aviation; both accidents have become the catalyst for change. The ultimate outcome from this will be safer aircraft and long overdue changes at the FAA. They've been begging for the proper funding to avoid issues like this. Let us not forget the (unneeded) government shutdown that possibly aided in setting the stage for the latter Ethiopian crash. At the end of the day, there is blame to be placed all around. So much that is wrong with the current state of affairs at airlines/regulators/manufacturers have been revealed. All of this should've been done under circumstances that didn't result in a loss of life but it was not.


Well your personal insult aside, no, they don't just need to fix the problem and revise the training.

They've had problem after problem after problem. And then they've lied and attempted to cover them up. Remember, because of the KC-46 fiasco (people went to jail), they now have a corporate history of lying and cover ups. Their leadership is corrupt to the core and their products are dangerous. Those are the facts.
 
rheinwaldner
Posts: 1856
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:17 pm

morrisond wrote:
At 10,000' Mach .2 is only 126 Knots - I think that is pretty well the stall speed of a clean 737 - shouldn't MCAS be working then?

The surprise was not that MCAS activated but how MCAS activated.

morrisond wrote:
Maybe the two pilots in the text messages are just idiots and didn't understand when MCAS would be working.

If these pilots would be idiots, all pilots would be idiots. B.t.w. are you a pilot?
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
miegapele
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 12:24 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:36 pm

par13del wrote:
The potential financial impact of a big cut in production would see third parties put pressure on the FAA is resolve the issue, it may even push them to not wait for all regulators ungrounding at the same time. It may get some changes pushed to the production line after the a/c returns to flight.

But that assumes everybody else follows FAA ungrounding. If not, which is very likely, where will Boeing put those frames? I don't believe US airlines are capable of accepting 40 frames a month
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1868
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:45 pm

SteelChair wrote:
How does this end? I am beginning to wonder if the Max ever makes it back into service. This is far worse than the 787 and DC10 groundings imho.
The 787 grounding always had a crude but simple and obvious solution, stick the battery in a big, secure box. No computer coding, complex system side effects or other physical compromises involved. The 737 problem is very complex to resolve for many reasons.
 
User avatar
PixelFlight
Posts: 1018
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:55 pm

morrisond wrote:
Maybe the two pilots in the text messages are just idiots and didn't understand when MCAS would be working.

If there are "idiots", how dysfunctional the Boeing management have to be to place 2 "idiots" at such positions ?

Regardless of there competencies at there tasks, there also discuss a communication problem, not only with the team that designed the MCAS, but with the FAA.
I will not be surprised that the split of the work between multiple teams was purposely setup by the management to control what information will end up to the FAA.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10248
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:24 pm

miegapele wrote:
par13del wrote:
The potential financial impact of a big cut in production would see third parties put pressure on the FAA is resolve the issue, it may even push them to not wait for all regulators ungrounding at the same time. It may get some changes pushed to the production line after the a/c returns to flight.

But that assumes everybody else follows FAA ungrounding. If not, which is very likely, where will Boeing put those frames? I don't believe US airlines are capable of accepting 40 frames a month

No, as per the post, the premise is that the domestic pressure will force the FAA to unground whether the rest of the world goes along.
As to whether the US Airlines can accept 40 frames per month, that is not the primary issue, the issue is cash flow coming in, whether 10 or 40 per month, once they have cash flow coming in they can start making better economic decisions, they could even slow the line down further and reallocate resources to get the parked frames delivered.
If the rest of the world decides they do not want the MAX, the production rate will have to come down anyway and Boeing's existing plans to go back to 50+ per month is no longer viable. A decision on a 737 replacement to match the MAX but with modern technology may be the next thing for the board to approve, they may not be able to continue MAX production while waiting for any advancement in technology to make the NSA viable as was the case prior to the MAX.
We know from a technology and upgrade path the 737 is behind, hence the opinion that the 737 cannot be upgraded, some had this thought from the NG days much less the MAX.
At present, Boeing is taking all of the pain with a production rate of 40+ and storage, the cost of this is in addition to all of the compensation they will have to pay to airlines, not all clients have bulk purchases to get significant discounts on undelivered frames, smaller carriers may have to receive funds. The compensation to clients will have insurance companies involved, so not all Boeing.

Right now we do not know where Boeing is with the fixes, we know that they want pilots to test the fixes, whether they were waiting on that to submit to the FAA we do not know, but we do know that officially they have not submitted the fixes, until that is done they have no idea when the a/c can potentially return to service.

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