SEU
Posts: 204
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:21 pm

ACATROYAL wrote:
The one thought that keeps running through my mind regarding this MAX issue and other projects like the 777X or the F-35 etc. is why after all these years we keep screwing up in aviation? The aviation landscape is littered with new projects that are way over budget, way behind schedule and released with multiple issues that an airline or military power has to correct after delivery. You would think that after all these years we would know how to do things right, afterall the aviation community employees some of the highest educated minds Ph.D.'s. Masters Degree etc but we still end up screwing royally! It's like we never learn from our past mistakes. You would think that in this day and age of supercomputers, complex imaging software that it would be child's play to get a plane from conception to reality in no time flat and with no issues but it just seems to be getting worse!

I don't know about you but I'm really worried about the state of the aviation community...we need really leaders to guide it right now and I'm sorry to say I just don't see any, Boeing especially needs help Big Time... sad times indeed...


Money. Everything is so expensive these days
 
morrisond
Posts: 1660
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:18 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
This forum experience reset as often as the MCAS v1...
But given the massive number of established facts actually available that point to the management, design, and certification issues, his require a reset massive enough to disconnect from the real life to still pretend that "the MAX being safe and ready to fly, and this was an airmanship problem more than anything else."


Even I wouldn't go that far other than to rewrite your sentence as "But given the massive number of established facts actually available that point to the management, design, certification and airmanship issues the MAX deserved to be grounded and the whole system looked at to ensure we can make air travel as safe as possible"
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1229
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:31 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
lowbank wrote:
The survey data in this article suggests that it’s more a couple of people who are concerned about getting on the MAX.

https://news.yahoo.com/boeing-wants-fly ... Xs7gFKRbla


From the article:

"Just 19 percent of business travelers and 14 percent of leisure travelers would willingly take the 737 MAX within six months of returning to the sky, according to an Atmosphere survey.

Nearly half of the 2,000 respondents said they would pay more to avoid the MAX."


Wow, if this is correct, Boeing is in real trouble. There are quite a few voices in this thread mocking people saying the public will avoid the MAX. Hopefully they'll start taking this more seriously.


Indeed.

I begin to wonder: what is it gonna take for people to see that Boeing IS in trouble? Major trouble. Having a technical issue is one thing. Lying and cover ups are another thing. Having both is a real problem. Having both on multiple models/programs is a crisis. Both repeatedly is emblematic of loss of organizational control.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9198
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:41 pm

SteelChair wrote:
I begin to wonder: what is it gonna take for people to see that Boeing IS in trouble? Major trouble. Having a technical issue is one thing. Lying and cover ups are another thing. Having both is a real problem. Having both on multiple models/programs is a crisis. Both repeatedly is emblematic of loss of organizational control.

Boeing has already set aside billions to cater for this and they have stated that they know that it is only a initial amount, I would think that any company and anyone watching a company report billions of losses and or potential losses knows that they are in trouble.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21754
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:50 pm

ACATROYAL wrote:
The one thought that keeps running through my mind regarding this MAX issue and other projects like the 777X or the F-35 etc. is why after all these years we keep screwing up in aviation? The aviation landscape is littered with new projects that are way over budget, way behind schedule and released with multiple issues that an airline or military power has to correct after delivery. You would think that after all these years we would know how to do things right, afterall the aviation community employees some of the highest educated minds Ph.D.'s. Masters Degree etc but we still end up screwing royally! It's like we never learn from our past mistakes. You would think that in this day and age of supercomputers, complex imaging software that it would be child's play to get a plane from conception to reality in no time flat and with no issues but it just seems to be getting worse!

I don't know about you but I'm really worried about the state of the aviation community...we need really leaders to guide it right now and I'm sorry to say I just don't see any, Boeing especially needs help Big Time... sad times indeed...

The Twitter thread https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/stat ... 7857088512 makes a pretty strong point especially with regard to developing weapons systems, but similar issues occur throughout aerospace.

If you are a young brilliant STEM mind, you have to REALLY like aviation and weaponry to go to work at big prime defense contractor over a silicon valley outfit. Throw in the need to maintain a clearance, totally antithetical to the “I” generation, and the pool shrinks more...

Add a very conservative work environment, windowless dungeon atmosphere (some cases), huge hours, none of the cool stuff the Silicon Valley types offer, and not being able to tell anyone about what you do in some instances, and a very non competitive picture comes to light...

And we haven’t even gotten to pay. This will become a critical situation nobody wants to admit in the coming years. Considering software is as important as the hardware it runs on, huge problem for weapons dev going forward.

Also, let me say this. Some of the most brilliant and dedicated people work in this field. Geniuses ok. But getting them and keeping them is becoming harder and harder. Industry needs to adapt
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
kayik
Posts: 58
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:11 pm

Revelation wrote:
The Twitter thread https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/stat ... 7857088512 makes a pretty strong point especially with regard to developing weapons systems, but similar issues occur throughout aerospace.


I liked that one :)

As a conservative, it’s clear to me that the surrender of the academy, abandonment of religion, degradation of the nuclear family have all led us to this point.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3155
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:31 pm

ACATROYAL wrote:
The one thought that keeps running through my mind regarding this MAX issue and other projects like the 777X or the F-35 etc. is why after all these years we keep screwing up in aviation? The aviation landscape is littered with new projects that are way over budget, way behind schedule and released with multiple issues that an airline or military power has to correct after delivery. You would think that after all these years we would know how to do things right, afterall the aviation community employees some of the highest educated minds Ph.D.'s. Masters Degree etc but we still end up screwing royally! It's like we never learn from our past mistakes. You would think that in this day and age of supercomputers, complex imaging software that it would be child's play to get a plane from conception to reality in no time flat and with no issues but it just seems to be getting worse!

I don't know about you but I'm really worried about the state of the aviation community...we need really leaders to guide it right now and I'm sorry to say I just don't see any, Boeing especially needs help Big Time... sad times indeed...


Money. Everybody is trying to screw others out of it. The F-35 is about a contractor extorting money from the government, the 777X is about earning as much money as possible by spending as little as possible as well as keeping share prices up. The 737MAX and 787 were the same.

IMO, Airbus having a background as a state-owned firm has kept them somewhat isolated from this relentless chase for money. Could be both good (no 737MAX mess) and bad (the entire concept of the A380), depending on who you ask. Boeing in the past when run by engineers and not lawyers and beancounters was the same. Incidentally, I have heard the same about Lufthansa's management - went from engineering to business backgrounds with Wolfgang Mayrhuber to Christoph Franz, and you can't deny that there has been a similar development there as well.
 
User avatar
PixelFlight
Posts: 746
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:37 pm

morrisond wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
This forum experience reset as often as the MCAS v1...
But given the massive number of established facts actually available that point to the management, design, and certification issues, his require a reset massive enough to disconnect from the real life to still pretend that "the MAX being safe and ready to fly, and this was an airmanship problem more than anything else."


Even I wouldn't go that far other than to rewrite your sentence as "But given the massive number of established facts actually available that point to the management, design, certification and airmanship issues the MAX deserved to be grounded and the whole system looked at to ensure we can make air travel as safe as possible"

Notice that you have to semantically move the "airmanship" word from the original quote to make your argument not impossible. :stirthepot:

Did you get the fact that only the 737-8/9 MAX is actually grounded, and that without it, the 737-600/700/800/900 NG pilots worldwide managed to provides one of the lowest fatal crash rates per million flights in the commercial aircraft industry ?

MAX != NG, not because of the pilots.
Last edited by PixelFlight on Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Alfons
Posts: 271
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:17 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:39 pm

VSMUT wrote:
IMO, Airbus having a background as a state-owned firm


ehm, which state it was again?
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3155
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:49 pm

Alfons wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
IMO, Airbus having a background as a state-owned firm


ehm, which state it was again?


"Background". It takes a long time to weed out old culture, even with a concentrated effort.

BTW, Germany, France and Spain still hold a controlling stake. They do not necessarily have economic results as the first order of the day.
 
chicawgo
Posts: 395
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:09 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:11 pm

ACATROYAL wrote:
The one thought that keeps running through my mind regarding this MAX issue and other projects like the 777X or the F-35 etc. is why after all these years we keep screwing up in aviation? The aviation landscape is littered with new projects that are way over budget, way behind schedule and released with multiple issues that an airline or military power has to correct after delivery. You would think that after all these years we would know how to do things right, afterall the aviation community employees some of the highest educated minds Ph.D.'s. Masters Degree etc but we still end up screwing royally! It's like we never learn from our past mistakes. You would think that in this day and age of supercomputers, complex imaging software that it would be child's play to get a plane from conception to reality in no time flat and with no issues but it just seems to be getting worse!

I don't know about you but I'm really worried about the state of the aviation community...we need really leaders to guide it right now and I'm sorry to say I just don't see any, Boeing especially needs help Big Time... sad times indeed...


The one thought that keeps running through my mind is how people can NOT understand how issues still occur. And that people think that humans and computers are perfect and nothing can ever go wrong. We live on a planet with laws of physics. There are millions of parts on airplanes and years of development and decision making. There are likely thousands of decisions made in any aircraft design where they just make assumptions that affect risk. Clearly, they're right in the vast majority and for those that are wrong, there's redundancy built in. Unfortunately, this was a decision (or series of decisions) that was wrong and was not caught by redundancy. Our world is full of these examples. No design is absolutely perfect and there are always budgetary confinements in capitalism. Boeing deserves a huge amount of blame for this. But to say that the aviation industry is not safe and assert a portrayal that everything is falling apart is insane. Just the fact that this is such a huge deal in the news and that regular citizens are aware of this is proof that the industry is in tact and is working to be even safer. To believe that there won't always be crashes no matter how much technology improves is insanity. The only way to have a perfect safety record would be to ban aviation entirely.
 
2175301
Posts: 1556
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:19 pm

ACATROYAL wrote:
The one thought that keeps running through my mind regarding this MAX issue and other projects like the 777X or the F-35 etc. is why after all these years we keep screwing up in aviation? The aviation landscape is littered with new projects that are way over budget, way behind schedule and released with multiple issues that an airline or military power has to correct after delivery. You would think that after all these years we would know how to do things right, afterall the aviation community employees some of the highest educated minds Ph.D.'s. Masters Degree etc but we still end up screwing royally! It's like we never learn from our past mistakes. You would think that in this day and age of supercomputers, complex imaging software that it would be child's play to get a plane from conception to reality in no time flat and with no issues but it just seems to be getting worse!

I don't know about you but I'm really worried about the state of the aviation community...we need really leaders to guide it right now and I'm sorry to say I just don't see any, Boeing especially needs help Big Time... sad times indeed...


While money is a key part of the reason (the bean counters now run businesses to maximize profit and minimize cost); another key factor is that brilliance and talent are not enough. You need people with institutional memories and who have seen in past the screw ups in person. These are the people who can usually see trouble coming. And they need to be in a position where their advice is taken seriously. Not that it cannot be refuted at times. But it needs to be seriously considered.

We have not only moved to a bean counter control culture; but, also to a patience and taking time is unfathomable. We want instant decisions and progress now. The younger generation - regardless of brilliance and talent - rarely understands the value of sleeping on it or thinking it over for a while. Make a decision and move on... which invites future rework and issues.

Have a great day,
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9198
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:21 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Money. Everybody is trying to screw others out of it. The F-35 is about a contractor extorting money from the government, the 777X is about earning as much money as possible by spending as little as possible as well as keeping share prices up.

I accept that Boeing is on the ropes right now but we need to keep some perspective. Boeing is spending a few billion on the 777X, they built a new factory in the USA to make the CFRP wings, if it was all about spending less, they would have done what they did with the 787, outsource.
A lot of posters keep bringing up the 777X, other than the failed cargo door during the stress test, what certifications issues have we had with the 777X?
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7000
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:21 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
My workgroup had the opportunity to have a presentation on the MAX by three B737 fleet captains, and they did a very deep dive into the FDR data for both the JT and ET accidents. They reviewed MCAS in detail with us, and what role it played. While they acknowledged that Boeing should have explained MCAS more clearly than was originally done, and made it clear they were EXTREMELY uncomfortable with laying any blame at the feet of their fellow aviators, they also had no qualms in pointing out that any B737 type-rated pilot shouldn't have lost either airplane, as both accidents presented as a runaway stabilizer, and the standard checklist for the B737 would have involved engaging the trim cutout switches.

In one accident, the cutouts were never touched. In the other, they were engaged, but then immediately turned back on, allowing the runaway to continue.

Boeing's decision to have two AOA vanes instead of one, alternating use from left to right between flights, was definitely a contributing factor, but again, these 737 pilots were clear about the MAX being safe and ready to fly, and this was an airmanship problem more than anything else.

It is commendable when three captains take their time to boost moral when much needed. And we shall always strive for improved airmanship. It is crucial to our effort to avoid accidents.

But how is it relevant to the grounding of 737MAX? And to the subject of this thread?

The MAX is grounded because a relatively trivial single failure has the potential to become catastrophic when not countered correctly by sufficient level of airmanship. Redundancy to make it comply with present day certification criteria is not present.

It doesn't really matter (for the grounding issue) whether world wide 737 crews are able to save the plane in 50%, 99%, or 100% of the events. It is just too primitive to be acceptable in our century. As well as a substantial part of the previous century.

Even if we assume a 100% success rate saving the plane from any future MCAS misfire, then maybe catering carts might be sent into the roof and come crashing down on the sculls of pax and FAs. Totally unacceptable when it can be avoided with proper design like 747, 757, 767, 777, 787, as well as anything from Embraer, Bombardier, Airbus, Tupolev etc. (Yes, no reason to assume that the seatbelt sign was ever turned off on the accident flights, but that's not a given at next MCAS misfire).

The MAX will fly again when it has been fixed and re-certified.

The accident reports may include recommendations for improved training and airmanship, as well as improved airline ops procedures and maintenance. We will see. But that is outside the scope of this thread about MAX grounding.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1229
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:37 pm

par13del wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Money. Everybody is trying to screw others out of it. The F-35 is about a contractor extorting money from the government, the 777X is about earning as much money as possible by spending as little as possible as well as keeping share prices up.

I accept that Boeing is on the ropes right now but we need to keep some perspective. Boeing is spending a few billion on the 777X, they built a new factory in the USA to make the CFRP wings, if it was all about spending less, they would have done what they did with the 787, outsource.
A lot of posters keep bringing up the 777X, other than the failed cargo door during the stress test, what certifications issues have we had with the 777X?


Granted, this isn't Boeing, but didn't GE discover some major issues that required significant redesign?

Then, there is the weakness of the orderbook, 2/3 of the orders are by the economically distressed ME3.
 
User avatar
Raiden
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:28 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:30 pm

VSMUT wrote:
ACATROYAL wrote:
The one thought that keeps running through my mind regarding this MAX issue and other projects like the 777X or the F-35 etc. is why after all these years we keep screwing up in aviation? The aviation landscape is littered with new projects that are way over budget, way behind schedule and released with multiple issues that an airline or military power has to correct after delivery. You would think that after all these years we would know how to do things right, afterall the aviation community employees some of the highest educated minds Ph.D.'s. Masters Degree etc but we still end up screwing royally! It's like we never learn from our past mistakes. You would think that in this day and age of supercomputers, complex imaging software that it would be child's play to get a plane from conception to reality in no time flat and with no issues but it just seems to be getting worse!

I don't know about you but I'm really worried about the state of the aviation community...we need really leaders to guide it right now and I'm sorry to say I just don't see any, Boeing especially needs help Big Time... sad times indeed...


Money. Everybody is trying to screw others out of it. The F-35 is about a contractor extorting money from the government, the 777X is about earning as much money as possible by spending as little as possible as well as keeping share prices up. The 737MAX and 787 were the same.

IMO, Airbus having a background as a state-owned firm has kept them somewhat isolated from this relentless chase for money. Could be both good (no 737MAX mess) and bad (the entire concept of the A380), depending on who you ask. Boeing in the past when run by engineers and not lawyers and beancounters was the same. Incidentally, I have heard the same about Lufthansa's management - went from engineering to business backgrounds with Wolfgang Mayrhuber to Christoph Franz, and you can't deny that there has been a similar development there as well.
It's not so much government owned versus private ownership at all. It's more a division between plain old honesty and integrity versus less restrained managerial greed and corporate malfeasance that became normalized by the post-1980s Reagan-voodo "shareholder value is the only thing that matters in any company" model of doing business that gutted Boeing's previously existing culture of engineering excellence and safety prioritizing model of doing business. This was put aside in the aftermath of that gigantic merger of Boeing and McDonnell Douglas. Boeing swallowed MD and got infected with the voodoo virus full on. A virus that had already been malignant inside MD and had destroyed that (once also legendary) company and reduced it to a carcass ripe for a takeover

https://newrepublic.com/article/154944/ ... revolution
Last edited by Raiden on Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
BaconButty
Posts: 810
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:37 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
My workgroup had the opportunity to have a presentation on the MAX by three B737 fleet captains, and they did a very deep dive into the FDR data for both the JT and ET accidents. They reviewed MCAS in detail with us, and what role it played. While they acknowledged that Boeing should have explained MCAS more clearly than was originally done, and made it clear they were EXTREMELY uncomfortable with laying any blame at the feet of their fellow aviators, they also had no qualms in pointing out that any B737 type-rated pilot shouldn't have lost either airplane, as both accidents presented as a runaway stabilizer, and the standard checklist for the B737 would have involved engaging the trim cutout switches.

Runaway stab trim is continuous, MCAS is intermittent. Stab trim in normal operation is intermittent. They differ in their response to cancellation too. Surely enough to render the bolded quote BS? What airlines were they from out of interest?
Down with that sort of thing!
 
TObound
Posts: 368
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:37 pm

Boeing’s board needs to be fired. Before they totally destroy whatever goodwill the company has left. This constant evasive behaviour and blaming regulators doesn’t show good faith. And the longer this behaviour keeps up, the worse it is for the company over the long run.
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3498
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:39 pm

ACATROYAL wrote:
The one thought that keeps running through my mind regarding this MAX issue and other projects like the 777X or the F-35 etc. is why after all these years we keep screwing up in aviation? The aviation landscape is littered with new projects that are way over budget, way behind schedule and released with multiple issues that an airline or military power has to correct after delivery. You would think that after all these years we would know how to do things right, afterall the aviation community employees some of the highest educated minds Ph.D.'s. Masters Degree etc but we still end up screwing royally! It's like we never learn from our past mistakes. You would think that in this day and age of supercomputers, complex imaging software that it would be child's play to get a plane from conception to reality in no time flat and with no issues but it just seems to be getting worse!

I don't know about you but I'm really worried about the state of the aviation community...we need really leaders to guide it right now and I'm sorry to say I just don't see any, Boeing especially needs help Big Time... sad times indeed...


It's a tough industry, and we're human. Aviation technology is mature, so significant economic gains are smaller and more and more difficult to achieve. Society is becoming more and more risk-adverse, so perfection is more and more in demand. And I think to top it off, the working public is less and less competent as a whole. It's not a Boeing thing. It's a global thing.

I hear you though. You'd think this would be easier and easier, but it's not. If someone had the magic elixir, we would know. They would lead the world.

prebennorholm wrote:
It is commendable when three captains take their time to boost moral when much needed. And we shall always strive for improved airmanship. It is crucial to our effort to avoid accidents.

But how is it relevant to the grounding of 737MAX? And to the subject of this thread?


I guess it needs to be said again, but this thread doesn't exist without that factor involved. There's no shortage of talk about the other factors either.

Frankly it's getting quite old to read how relevant topics of how we got here are now off limits. If people cared about the actual crash threads, then you would have a point. But those are long dead, and the topics have been effectively merged into one.
 
HP69
Posts: 224
Joined: Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:04 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:40 pm

When will the MAX be in the air again?
 
kalvado
Posts: 2112
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:45 pm

HP69 wrote:
When will the MAX be in the air again?

Some time in 21st century
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3498
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:22 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Your defense of the trim wheel, because it is on the NG, is an absolute red herring. Because a safety feature was hardly ever needed, it is OK that that safety feature is not working and therefore you keep this not working safety feature in the next frame. About the worst safety argument you could present.

The trim wheel is on the list from EASA. As EASA has not yet retracted the grounding of the 737MAX, what inaction exactly does prove that EASA will accept the MAX with the now installed manual trim system?

If inclusion of MCAS in the manual would have not been any help to the pilots and you are so sure about that, is it than not better to through this seemingly useless manual completely away, to not to confuse pilots?


No, the EASA has made it a red herring, and you've brought it into the thread. It's interesting that you're putting words in my mouth to say that I believe if a safety measure is hardly ever needed, it's okay if it doesn't work! I don't believe that, and I'd appreciate it if you didn't state a position I haven't made. But fine, let's go with that terrible standard. Now take into account that once the MCAS trigger is removed, the MAX will be just like the NG in that the wheel is hardly ever needed. So logically there's no problem with the MAX wheel if there isn't one with the NG. If the NG is allowed to fly with it, the MAX should too. And before you go into unknowns, just remember that we don't know what we don't know. It would be crazy to let the NG go but hold the MAX to a higher standard because of a potential unknown use. No, the only logical play that is all about safety is to either force a fix to both, or take the calculated risk and leave both the same (again, assuming there's actually a problem with the wheels worth fixing). I can understand either approach as they both are logical.

The good news is that the EASA has apparently backed down from their illogical request that the MAX wheels need immediate attention before a return to service (based on the timeline posted earlier today, and the fact there's no reports saying it's been done or must be done). It's doesn't create trust in a regulatory agency when reason is missing. You hope it was an error, but in this case I doubt it. Either way it's not a trust-building sequence.

I'd appreciate it if you would relay my positions accurately. I did not say I'm sure the inclusion of MCAS would not have changed anything. I believe it's dubious to think that it would have, based on the evidence. That's not a belief in certainty. If anything is a red herring, it's the talk about what's in the manuals. The ET302 crew had full knowledge of MCAS (or at least should have if the airline was doing its job), and it was a hot topic front and center, not a side note in a manual. And yet they still mishandled the malfunctioning plane. Would it have changed JT610? Maybe, maybe not. We'll never know, but ET302 lends great doubt into thinking it would have.
 
morrisond
Posts: 1660
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:43 am

PixelFlight wrote:
morrisond wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
This forum experience reset as often as the MCAS v1...
But given the massive number of established facts actually available that point to the management, design, and certification issues, his require a reset massive enough to disconnect from the real life to still pretend that "the MAX being safe and ready to fly, and this was an airmanship problem more than anything else."


Even I wouldn't go that far other than to rewrite your sentence as "But given the massive number of established facts actually available that point to the management, design, certification and airmanship issues the MAX deserved to be grounded and the whole system looked at to ensure we can make air travel as safe as possible"

Notice that you have to semantically move the "airmanship" word from the original quote to make your argument not impossible. :stirthepot:

Did you get the fact that only the 737-8/9 MAX is actually grounded, and that without it, the 737-600/700/800/900 NG pilots worldwide managed to provides one of the lowest fatal crash rates per million flights in the commercial aircraft industry ?

MAX != NG, not because of the pilots.


Pilots seem to have a hard time manually flying the NG when the Automation breaks as well - see ET409 - and it's not the pilots - it's the training system/airlines penny pinching just as much as Boeing is at fault for penny pinching/in pursuit of profit.
 
edu2703
Posts: 148
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 12:50 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:46 am

lowbank wrote:
Do not underestimate the fear of flying in the general public.


Well, the general public can barely differentiate a B737 from an A320
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:55 am

edu2703 wrote:
lowbank wrote:
Do not underestimate the fear of flying in the general public.


Well, the general public can barely differentiate a B737 from an A320


That might be true, but the general public is also very aware of the issues. In fact I'd say that a 737 is a 737 to most people. I had a friend call me in a panic last year because she was booked to fly Bahamasair on a 737 with her family. She said she was concerned that she was on the same type of plane. So to many people a 737 is a 737.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9198
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:08 am

SteelChair wrote:
par13del wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Money. Everybody is trying to screw others out of it. The F-35 is about a contractor extorting money from the government, the 777X is about earning as much money as possible by spending as little as possible as well as keeping share prices up.

I accept that Boeing is on the ropes right now but we need to keep some perspective. Boeing is spending a few billion on the 777X, they built a new factory in the USA to make the CFRP wings, if it was all about spending less, they would have done what they did with the 787, outsource.
A lot of posters keep bringing up the 777X, other than the failed cargo door during the stress test, what certifications issues have we had with the 777X?


Granted, this isn't Boeing, but didn't GE discover some major issues that required significant redesign?

Then, there is the weakness of the orderbook, 2/3 of the orders are by the economically distressed ME3.

Neither of which hints at Boeing doing the 777X on the cheap or provides any insights to any certification issues on the 777X.
I get certain posters don't like the fact it has new wings, engines and is still called a 777, but until we have violations of the regulations, I think we should leave the 777X out of the MAX grounding, if we don't, folks would have to defend excluding the 787.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21754
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:21 am

NYT ( https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/busi ... 7-max.html ) gives its run down of the situation.

I was hoping they would have some inside stuff on the BoD meeting, but they didn't.

Instead they had a lot of stuff on how Congress is prepping to grill DM, and how DM is being coached to deal with the grilling.

But it did give Scott Hamilton the opportunity to stick the knife in DM's back via one of the most respected media platforms in the world:

The messages have made his task even more complicated, and the fact that they came out just before Mr. Muilenburg is to testify “intensifies focus on potential leadership changes,” said Mr. Seifman of JPMorgan Chase.

“It goes back to this running question which is: ‘What else haven’t they told us?’” said Mr. Hamilton. “This just reinforces my view that Muilenburg should go."

Et tu, Scott?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
BaconButty
Posts: 810
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:36 am

Revelation wrote:
Et tu, Scott?

Why, have Leeham News been directly responsible for the deaths of 346 people?
Down with that sort of thing!
 
planecane
Posts: 1235
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:59 am

BaconButty wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
My workgroup had the opportunity to have a presentation on the MAX by three B737 fleet captains, and they did a very deep dive into the FDR data for both the JT and ET accidents. They reviewed MCAS in detail with us, and what role it played. While they acknowledged that Boeing should have explained MCAS more clearly than was originally done, and made it clear they were EXTREMELY uncomfortable with laying any blame at the feet of their fellow aviators, they also had no qualms in pointing out that any B737 type-rated pilot shouldn't have lost either airplane, as both accidents presented as a runaway stabilizer, and the standard checklist for the B737 would have involved engaging the trim cutout switches.

Runaway stab trim is continuous, MCAS is intermittent. Stab trim in normal operation is intermittent. They differ in their response to cancellation too. Surely enough to render the bolded quote BS? What airlines were they from out of interest?

Can we at least give this argument a rest? Normal automatic trim does not operate continuously for over 9 seconds.

If the trim wheel is spinning continuously for several seconds and simultaneously the force to maintain level flight is significantly increasing that would indicate a runaway stabilizer.

I am willing to bet that when the final Lion Air report is released, if it has a full CVR transcript, there will be no point where the crew determines there isn't a runaway stabilizer because it is intermittent.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8849
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:04 am

lowbank wrote:
seahawk wrote:
oschkosch wrote:

So if this is all so easy peasy, why is it not solved already?

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


Because they still try to do it with as little change compared to the NG and with as little effort and cost as possible.

lowbank wrote:
As an aerospace signatory, can I suggest that I would be very very reluctant to sign off anything on the MAX.

It’s easy for you to type those words on a forum.

Can I suggest that when you know your signature puts people life’s in your hands, you think very hard about what your signing.

Can I ask how you would feel if you signed off the MAX now and six months later another crash happens and it’s pointed at you that you didn’t do due diligence.


As a the FAA or EASA I would be very sceptical about anything Boeing comes up with, but they do not have to fix the MAX, Boeing does. And I have no doubt that the engineers there could fix the problem to the fullest satisfaction of the regulation authorities, but maybe not to the satisfaction of their own bean counters.

mjoelnir wrote:

It needs a new manual trim wheel that is working and it should be moved to EICAS, so it would not need exceptions to FAR, as the current interface in the cockpit does.

I agree that there are not huge technical problems to solve. Especially as EICAS has been integrated on the P-8. And nobody can tell me, that Boeing is not able to design a trim wheel that does not need a Gorilla to turn.

And I agree with you, that the main problem is Boeing continuing to try to cut corners.


I think if you change the switches for the trim controls, so that one disables all automatic trim systemw and the second disables electric manual trim, the problem would be minimized. If you then add the roller coaster manoeuvrer back into the conversion training and add it to the flight manuals, this could be just fine. We know from the experience of the NG that a runaway trim is rare and seldom a problem.



I notice you didn’t actually answer my question.

Working in the industry as I do, things are always harder than those outside of it think.

MCAS was developed for reason, that reason still exists.

Trying to back away from what you have declared is needed is a hard argument to have. Boeing are in a massive hole, that’s why they have been grounded for so long and from what I am seeing they have not put away the shovels yet and are digging themselves deeper.

Trying to shift the blame on the regulators smacks of desperation and if it was me being attacked would be even less likely to sign off the MAX.


I am not trying to shift the blame on the regulators, Boeing is and imho as long as Boeing does this, the regulators should very careful when it comes to lifting the grounding. But the basic problem is still simple and making a safe MCAS is not hard, it might be hard with the existing hardware of the 737MAX and without creating differences between NG and MAX.
 
oschkosch
Posts: 335
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:45 am

Revelation wrote:
NYT ( https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/busi ... 7-max.html ) gives its run down of the situation.

I was hoping they would have some inside stuff on the BoD meeting, but they didn't.

Instead they had a lot of stuff on how Congress is prepping to grill DM, and how DM is being coached to deal with the grilling.

But it did give Scott Hamilton the opportunity to stick the knife in DM's back via one of the most respected media platforms in the world:

The messages have made his task even more complicated, and the fact that they came out just before Mr. Muilenburg is to testify “intensifies focus on potential leadership changes,” said Mr. Seifman of JPMorgan Chase.

“It goes back to this running question which is: ‘What else haven’t they told us?’” said Mr. Hamilton. “This just reinforces my view that Muilenburg should go."

Et tu, Scott?



I don't think we should go ahead and shoot the messenger, in this case Scott!
 
oschkosch
Posts: 335
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:09 am

A very indepth report by Seattle Times!

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -messages/

The bottom line is that the erratic behavior described in the 2016 chat by 737 MAX chief technical pilot Mark Forkner revealed a software bug in the MAX flight simulator he was using, a pilot training machine that he and his colleagues were then fine-tuning to get it ready for the MAX’s entry into service. It was not evidence of the flaws that later showed up on the real airplane’s new flight-control system — known as the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) — that caused the fatal crashes of the jets in Indonesia and Ethiopia.


Boeing last Friday offered no real evidence in its defense. On Sunday, it offered weak evidence: just a general statement by Forkner’s lawyer. Forkner is refusing to talk or to provide information under his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. In addition, the second part of Boeing’s defense on Sunday — its claim that the FAA knew all about the changes it made to MCAS — is questionable.

Multiple reports, initially in the Seattle Times, and most recently in the report by a team of international regulators, show that though some within the FAA may have been aware of some changes to MCAS, the FAA safety engineers tasked with analyzing its safety did not.


It doesn’t change the conclusion that MCAS as originally designed did lead to the accidents and the deaths of 346 people.
 
asdf
Posts: 496
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:03 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:17 am

planecane wrote:
Can we at least give this argument a rest? Normal automatic trim does not operate continuously for over 9 seconds.


what would be a long, but "normal" automatic trim wheel operation?
five seconds?
six seconds?
 
sgrow787
Posts: 312
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:41 am

oschkosch wrote:
A very indepth report by Seattle Times!

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -messages/

The bottom line is that the erratic behavior described in the 2016 chat by 737 MAX chief technical pilot Mark Forkner revealed a software bug in the MAX flight simulator he was using, a pilot training machine that he and his colleagues were then fine-tuning to get it ready for the MAX’s entry into service. It was not evidence of the flaws that later showed up on the real airplane’s new flight-control system — known as the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) — that caused the fatal crashes of the jets in Indonesia and Ethiopia.


Boeing last Friday offered no real evidence in its defense. On Sunday, it offered weak evidence: just a general statement by Forkner’s lawyer. Forkner is refusing to talk or to provide information under his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. In addition, the second part of Boeing’s defense on Sunday — its claim that the FAA knew all about the changes it made to MCAS — is questionable.

Multiple reports, initially in the Seattle Times, and most recently in the report by a team of international regulators, show that though some within the FAA may have been aware of some changes to MCAS, the FAA safety engineers tasked with analyzing its safety did not.


It doesn’t change the conclusion that MCAS as originally designed did lead to the accidents and the deaths of 346 people.


But if Mr forkner was indeed fine-tuning the simulator, then why would he need to say (in the chat) that he felt he lied to the FAA?

And what kind of fine tuning would result in the "trimming like crazy" outcome? I cant think of any. Like I said earlier, their Max simulator would have been largely borrowed from the NG simulator, sans the new glass cockpit, which simply hooks up to the same Arinc connectors as before.

How could the interpretation of that chat not include the possibility that the excessive trim was due to the valid and credible notion that Mr Forkner simply hadnt been informed of the recent changes to MCAS, in both Authority change and cyclical nature?

Despite Dominic's previous credible reporting, has he now been bought off?

You don't use words like "egregious" unless you're sure what you're looking at. Particularly if what you're looking at points to the safety of the aircraft.
Last edited by sgrow787 on Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
planecane
Posts: 1235
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:54 am

sgrow787 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
A very indepth report by Seattle Times!

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -messages/

The bottom line is that the erratic behavior described in the 2016 chat by 737 MAX chief technical pilot Mark Forkner revealed a software bug in the MAX flight simulator he was using, a pilot training machine that he and his colleagues were then fine-tuning to get it ready for the MAX’s entry into service. It was not evidence of the flaws that later showed up on the real airplane’s new flight-control system — known as the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) — that caused the fatal crashes of the jets in Indonesia and Ethiopia.


Boeing last Friday offered no real evidence in its defense. On Sunday, it offered weak evidence: just a general statement by Forkner’s lawyer. Forkner is refusing to talk or to provide information under his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. In addition, the second part of Boeing’s defense on Sunday — its claim that the FAA knew all about the changes it made to MCAS — is questionable.

Multiple reports, initially in the Seattle Times, and most recently in the report by a team of international regulators, show that though some within the FAA may have been aware of some changes to MCAS, the FAA safety engineers tasked with analyzing its safety did not.


It doesn’t change the conclusion that MCAS as originally designed did lead to the accidents and the deaths of 346 people.


But if Mr forkner was indeed fine-tuning the simulator, then why would he need to say (in the chat) that he felt he lied to the FAA?

And what kind of fine tuning would result in the "trimming like crazy" outcome? I cant think of any. Like I said earlier, their Max simulator would have been largely borrowed from the NG simulator, sans the new glass cockpit, which simply hooks up to the same Arinc connectors as before.

How could the interpretation of that chat not include the possibility that the excessive trim was due to the valid and credible notion that Mr Forkner simply hadnt been informed of the recent changes to MCAS, in both Authority change and cyclical nature?

Despite Dominic's previous credible reporting, has he now been bought off?

He felt he lied to the FAA because he told them that it was only active at high speed and high AoA. He discovered that it was active at low speed. Hence the reference to it being active down to 0.2 mach.
 
planecane
Posts: 1235
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:06 am

asdf wrote:
planecane wrote:
Can we at least give this argument a rest? Normal automatic trim does not operate continuously for over 9 seconds.


what would be a long, but "normal" automatic trim wheel operation?
five seconds?
six seconds?

Going off of my own simulator session and videos on YouTube, it is normally short bursts of one or two seconds on autopilot.

In manual flight it would have only been expected if it was STS. I don't know the answer for that system but it certainly doesn't keep trimming to the point where the stick force becomes very high. I can only assume it would be similar. Based on the report plots with flaps still deployed any automatic trim was short bursts which would be consistent with that.

Also, we've seen reference to the FAA expecting pilot response to a runaway to be 3 seconds. Therefore, it is a logical conclusion that over 3 seconds of continuous trim is not normal.

The combination of long bursts of trim combined with the great increase in stick force should have indicated that something was wrong with the trim system. Since it obviously wasn't a jammed stabilizer the only other logical conclusion is a runaway.
 
User avatar
PixelFlight
Posts: 746
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:07 am

morrisond wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Even I wouldn't go that far other than to rewrite your sentence as "But given the massive number of established facts actually available that point to the management, design, certification and airmanship issues the MAX deserved to be grounded and the whole system looked at to ensure we can make air travel as safe as possible"

Notice that you have to semantically move the "airmanship" word from the original quote to make your argument not impossible. :stirthepot:

Did you get the fact that only the 737-8/9 MAX is actually grounded, and that without it, the 737-600/700/800/900 NG pilots worldwide managed to provides one of the lowest fatal crash rates per million flights in the commercial aircraft industry ?

MAX != NG, not because of the pilots.


Pilots seem to have a hard time manually flying the NG when the Automation breaks as well - see ET409 - and it's not the pilots - it's the training system/airlines penny pinching just as much as Boeing is at fault for penny pinching/in pursuit of profit.

Simply false: ET409 did not have "Automation breaks".
 
sgrow787
Posts: 312
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:07 am

planecane wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
A very indepth report by Seattle Times!

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -messages/







But if Mr forkner was indeed fine-tuning the simulator, then why would he need to say (in the chat) that he felt he lied to the FAA?

And what kind of fine tuning would result in the "trimming like crazy" outcome? I cant think of any. Like I said earlier, their Max simulator would have been largely borrowed from the NG simulator, sans the new glass cockpit, which simply hooks up to the same Arinc connectors as before.

How could the interpretation of that chat not include the possibility that the excessive trim was due to the valid and credible notion that Mr Forkner simply hadnt been informed of the recent changes to MCAS, in both Authority change and cyclical nature?

Despite Dominic's previous credible reporting, has he now been bought off?

He felt he lied to the FAA because he told them that it was only active at high speed and high AoA. He discovered that it was active at low speed. Hence the reference to it being active down to 0.2 mach.


But the story by Dominic Gates is saying that Boeing stated the source of the crazy trim was due to the simulator not faulty MCAS. And my point is that doesn't seem possible or a possible explanation. Have you read the article??
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13281
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:26 am

.
:arrow: I'm shocked on how the 3 yr old, incoherent half drunk Forkner text messages let to a steep drop in Boeing stock price, but the expert JATR report two weeks ago did not.

Baseless emotions seem to drive stock price, while stock price steers salaries / company strategy. :worried:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:30 am

planecane wrote:
asdf wrote:
planecane wrote:
Can we at least give this argument a rest? Normal automatic trim does not operate continuously for over 9 seconds.


what would be a long, but "normal" automatic trim wheel operation?
five seconds?
six seconds?

Going off of my own simulator session and videos on YouTube, it is normally short bursts of one or two seconds on autopilot.

In manual flight it would have only been expected if it was STS. I don't know the answer for that system but it certainly doesn't keep trimming to the point where the stick force becomes very high. I can only assume it would be similar. Based on the report plots with flaps still deployed any automatic trim was short bursts which would be consistent with that.

Also, we've seen reference to the FAA expecting pilot response to a runaway to be 3 seconds. Therefore, it is a logical conclusion that over 3 seconds of continuous trim is not normal.

The combination of long bursts of trim combined with the great increase in stick force should have indicated that something was wrong with the trim system. Since it obviously wasn't a jammed stabilizer the only other logical conclusion is a runaway.


The logical follow up for this is though, that electrical trim is still functioning and not the cause of the run away. This only leaves the options that actually manual trim does run away when electrical trim is not on (so switching off electrical trim is really counter-intuitive in that situation) or the computer that controls electric trim (that is active parallel to the thumb switches) is malfunctioning and is trimming but at this point it was not 100% clear to the pilots that with AP off there is actually a computer aided system (besides STS) working in the background that could malfunction (or better function as intended, to press the nose down no matter if it kills everyone as long as AoA is too high). It was probably known that MCAS was a thing but not how it works, where it is implemented and how it is shown and felt if it goes rogue. That would have been an item for difference training in a sim but yeah Boeing thought better hide it.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2435
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:07 am

planecane wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
My workgroup had the opportunity to have a presentation on the MAX by three B737 fleet captains, and they did a very deep dive into the FDR data for both the JT and ET accidents. They reviewed MCAS in detail with us, and what role it played. While they acknowledged that Boeing should have explained MCAS more clearly than was originally done, and made it clear they were EXTREMELY uncomfortable with laying any blame at the feet of their fellow aviators, they also had no qualms in pointing out that any B737 type-rated pilot shouldn't have lost either airplane, as both accidents presented as a runaway stabilizer, and the standard checklist for the B737 would have involved engaging the trim cutout switches.

Runaway stab trim is continuous, MCAS is intermittent. Stab trim in normal operation is intermittent. They differ in their response to cancellation too. Surely enough to render the bolded quote BS? What airlines were they from out of interest?

Can we at least give this argument a rest? Normal automatic trim does not operate continuously for over 9 seconds.

If the trim wheel is spinning continuously for several seconds and simultaneously the force to maintain level flight is significantly increasing that would indicate a runaway stabilizer.

I am willing to bet that when the final Lion Air report is released, if it has a full CVR transcript, there will be no point where the crew determines there isn't a runaway stabilizer because it is intermittent.



More to the point -

1. if the trim wheel spins for 3 seconds.
2. then the crew intervene and correct with trim switches.
3. MCAS cuts out for ~5 seconds (IIRC), so stabilizer stops trimming
4. which is then not in any way similar to how runaway stabilizer presents itself.
 
planecane
Posts: 1235
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:32 am

sgrow787 wrote:
planecane wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:

But if Mr forkner was indeed fine-tuning the simulator, then why would he need to say (in the chat) that he felt he lied to the FAA?

And what kind of fine tuning would result in the "trimming like crazy" outcome? I cant think of any. Like I said earlier, their Max simulator would have been largely borrowed from the NG simulator, sans the new glass cockpit, which simply hooks up to the same Arinc connectors as before.

How could the interpretation of that chat not include the possibility that the excessive trim was due to the valid and credible notion that Mr Forkner simply hadnt been informed of the recent changes to MCAS, in both Authority change and cyclical nature?

Despite Dominic's previous credible reporting, has he now been bought off?

He felt he lied to the FAA because he told them that it was only active at high speed and high AoA. He discovered that it was active at low speed. Hence the reference to it being active down to 0.2 mach.


But the story by Dominic Gates is saying that Boeing stated the source of the crazy trim was due to the simulator not faulty MCAS. And my point is that doesn't seem possible or a possible explanation. Have you read the article??


Yes. The source of the crazy trim is said to be due to the simulator. However the fact that MCAS was active at low speed is what he was talking about with unknowingly lying to the regulators about. This is very clear from the transcript of the chat.
 
planecane
Posts: 1235
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:37 am

Amiga500 wrote:
planecane wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
Runaway stab trim is continuous, MCAS is intermittent. Stab trim in normal operation is intermittent. They differ in their response to cancellation too. Surely enough to render the bolded quote BS? What airlines were they from out of interest?

Can we at least give this argument a rest? Normal automatic trim does not operate continuously for over 9 seconds.

If the trim wheel is spinning continuously for several seconds and simultaneously the force to maintain level flight is significantly increasing that would indicate a runaway stabilizer.

I am willing to bet that when the final Lion Air report is released, if it has a full CVR transcript, there will be no point where the crew determines there isn't a runaway stabilizer because it is intermittent.



More to the point -

1. if the trim wheel spins for 3 seconds.
2. then the crew intervene and correct with trim switches.
3. MCAS cuts out for ~5 seconds (IIRC), so stabilizer stops trimming
4. which is then not in any way similar to how runaway stabilizer presents itself.


I really hope you aren't a pilot. Use some common sense. If the same thing keeps happening over and over again and the thing that keeps happening is an abnormal amount of nose down trim it should be clear that there is a problem with the trim system. Since it is obviously not a jammed stabilizer and every time it happens it acts like a runaway stabilizer, at some point that connection should be made.

If we want to play semantics, a definition of continuous is:

being in immediate connection or spatial relationship:
a continuous series of blasts; a continuous row of warehouses.

Therefore an MCAS runaway can certainly be said to be continuous.
 
planecane
Posts: 1235
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:41 am

FluidFlow wrote:
planecane wrote:
asdf wrote:

what would be a long, but "normal" automatic trim wheel operation?
five seconds?
six seconds?

Going off of my own simulator session and videos on YouTube, it is normally short bursts of one or two seconds on autopilot.

In manual flight it would have only been expected if it was STS. I don't know the answer for that system but it certainly doesn't keep trimming to the point where the stick force becomes very high. I can only assume it would be similar. Based on the report plots with flaps still deployed any automatic trim was short bursts which would be consistent with that.

Also, we've seen reference to the FAA expecting pilot response to a runaway to be 3 seconds. Therefore, it is a logical conclusion that over 3 seconds of continuous trim is not normal.

The combination of long bursts of trim combined with the great increase in stick force should have indicated that something was wrong with the trim system. Since it obviously wasn't a jammed stabilizer the only other logical conclusion is a runaway.


The logical follow up for this is though, that electrical trim is still functioning and not the cause of the run away. This only leaves the options that actually manual trim does run away when electrical trim is not on (so switching off electrical trim is really counter-intuitive in that situation) or the computer that controls electric trim (that is active parallel to the thumb switches) is malfunctioning and is trimming but at this point it was not 100% clear to the pilots that with AP off there is actually a computer aided system (besides STS) working in the background that could malfunction (or better function as intended, to press the nose down no matter if it kills everyone as long as AoA is too high). It was probably known that MCAS was a thing but not how it works, where it is implemented and how it is shown and felt if it goes rogue. That would have been an item for difference training in a sim but yeah Boeing thought better hide it.


The fact that electric trim is still functioning does not indicate that it is not the cause of the runaway. In fact, the way the NNC is written, it seems that it would be expected for electric trim to be able to counter a runaway in many situations. The manual wheel/manual trim system has priority so the fact that the electric trim worked would indicate that the manual (non-electric) part of the system wasn't the likely cause.
 
asdf
Posts: 496
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:03 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:48 am

Amiga500 wrote:
More to the point -
1. if the trim wheel spins for 3 seconds.
2. then the crew intervene and correct with trim switches.
3. MCAS cuts out for ~5 seconds (IIRC), so stabilizer stops trimming
4. which is then not in any way similar to how runaway stabilizer presents itself.


from my knowledge .... you can not expect an airline crew to react within 4 seconds with the appropiate action
not even to a memory item

if trim spin is normal
trim spin up to 3 seconds

at the 4th second the crew has to
- rethink if its really been three seconds or more
- give it another second (maybe we didnt realized..)
- determine if something else is not OK with the plane
- check back with the other pilot that something is going on with the trim
- deside if there is a somewhat normal explanation to it or if it is a situation to intervene
- grab the collumne and pull back to stop trim
- remember the ipad course a year ago that pulling back the colume does not stop trimming
- try the cut-out switches and find out that they are renamed and regrouped now on another position

...

IF at this stage at least 4 seconds have passed by, then the MCAS trim has stopped in the meantime ...

maybe a lot to think about what has happend
but nothing to do if you follow the procedures and you are not a clairvoyant
Last edited by asdf on Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:54 am, edited 5 times in total.
 
User avatar
ExperimentalFTE
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:59 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:48 am

I am more inclined to conclude that Mr. Forkner was perhaps laying unintentionally, which is unfortunate but in development cycle and certification cycle of an aircraft (taking into account that FAA didnt know specifics and operating principles and why's and how's of MCAS nor natural behaviour of the airplane) many many others involved in MAX development did actually lie intentionally and hid data intentionally.....and that is a much bigger problem than Mr. Forkner...
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2435
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:54 am

planecane wrote:
I really hope you aren't a pilot. Use some common sense. If the same thing keeps happening over and over again and the thing that keeps happening is an abnormal amount of nose down trim it should be clear that there is a problem with the trim system.


OK, so now you are saying it should be possible to diagnose after several repeated MCAS interventions?

Right.

So if, say, the pilots on ET302 were to engage the cut-off switches after several MCAS activations - but then found they couldn't reverse the stabliser with the manual trim wheel due to adverse loading - so had to reengage the electric trim in an effort to get some authority on stabilizer...
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8793
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:59 am

It is still a fact that Mark Forkner took the fifth in regards to documents regarding his time at Boeing in the criminal Investigation that is going on.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:01 am

planecane wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
planecane wrote:
Going off of my own simulator session and videos on YouTube, it is normally short bursts of one or two seconds on autopilot.

In manual flight it would have only been expected if it was STS. I don't know the answer for that system but it certainly doesn't keep trimming to the point where the stick force becomes very high. I can only assume it would be similar. Based on the report plots with flaps still deployed any automatic trim was short bursts which would be consistent with that.

Also, we've seen reference to the FAA expecting pilot response to a runaway to be 3 seconds. Therefore, it is a logical conclusion that over 3 seconds of continuous trim is not normal.

The combination of long bursts of trim combined with the great increase in stick force should have indicated that something was wrong with the trim system. Since it obviously wasn't a jammed stabilizer the only other logical conclusion is a runaway.


The logical follow up for this is though, that electrical trim is still functioning and not the cause of the run away. This only leaves the options that actually manual trim does run away when electrical trim is not on (so switching off electrical trim is really counter-intuitive in that situation) or the computer that controls electric trim (that is active parallel to the thumb switches) is malfunctioning and is trimming but at this point it was not 100% clear to the pilots that with AP off there is actually a computer aided system (besides STS) working in the background that could malfunction (or better function as intended, to press the nose down no matter if it kills everyone as long as AoA is too high). It was probably known that MCAS was a thing but not how it works, where it is implemented and how it is shown and felt if it goes rogue. That would have been an item for difference training in a sim but yeah Boeing thought better hide it.


The fact that electric trim is still functioning does not indicate that it is not the cause of the runaway. In fact, the way the NNC is written, it seems that it would be expected for electric trim to be able to counter a runaway in many situations. The manual wheel/manual trim system has priority so the fact that the electric trim worked would indicate that the manual (non-electric) part of the system wasn't the likely cause.



In the electric trim regime I see 5 possible failures that lead to run away trim:

1. The manual electric trim inputs have a short or are stuck or any other failure
2. The actuator fails and just trims till the max/min
3. The wiring fails/shortcuts
4. The computer fails
5. The manual non-electric trim fails

Now how does this impact the pilot, or how is it felt:

1. The trim is continuous and can not be stopped if smacking the control column does not release the switches. Nothing can be done except hit the cut out switches
2. Will be a continuous trim that will not stop if you flick the thumb switches
3. same as 2.
4. This is actually the tricky part because the manual electric trim does still work and if activated will kill the signal from the computer because it has priority over the computer
5. This would be a death sentence because no matter what both ways of trimming would be tarnished and there would be no real way to use electric trim if manual is prioritized over electrical

Now for Point 4:

If the computer fails, or in case of MCAS actually does what it supposed to do (trim with unlimited authority no matter what as long as AoA>X) then it does not present itself as a runaway because:

1. Electric trim does still work and
2. After you did trim with electric trim there is no immediate restart of trim caused by the computer, there is a 5 second break. This actually means that the trim action is deliberate by the computer and not a malfunction.

The problem is that it was never stated that a false input from the AoA probe will lead to step-wise nose down trim.
The problem could also be a broken feel computer. At the end it is, with no knowledge of the engineering and function of the software, almost impossible to conclude that a broken AoA sensor leads to the computer deliberately apply step-wise nose down input.
The real problem seems to be that a broken AoA probe leads to a cascade of problems in the 737 without ever telling the pilot that the probe is broken. The trim did not run away or had a failure, all the trim inputs from the computer were legit and working as intended. From the aircraft perspective only a full nose down input was the solution to a problem that actually was not there.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1229
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:08 am

The duality within this thread is quite interesting.

Pilots and engineering types debating the technical merits of the case on the one hand, while others seem focused upon lack of institutional control/program management. I tend to out myself in the second group. Technical issues will occur. They have to be managed. Boeing has shown a surprising inability to do that in this case, thus the cover up. I care less about the nit noids of MCAS than how it was designed, built, tested, certified, manufactured, trained, and supported.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos