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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:29 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
The topic of this thread is "Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide", not "pilots blaming".


Pilots are a key reason how hundreds died and the plane came to be grounded. Yes, the dramatically deteriorating state of pilot ability in segments of the industry deserve blame. Sorry, those are the facts. Nobody in this thread made them. Anyone who focuses on one problem of a wide systematic failure of safety protocols is part of the problem that led to the crashes and grounding. We will have more accidents and groundings if such anti-safety attitudes are allowed to continue and flourish.


The MAX wouldn’t be grounded if there was nothing wrong with it, would it?
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MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:30 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
You are confusing the causes and consequences.
The cause of 737-8/9 MAX grounding is a flawed functional hazard assessment (FHA), triggering many wrong design choices, and the consequence of the flawed functional hazard assessment (FHA) was two crashes. The fact is that the 737-8/9 MAX will not return into service until the functional hazard assessment (FHA) will be fixed as well as all the related design choices.


No, the cause of the grounding is much more than MCAS, as the final report stated. The why it is grounded is MCAS. I think you're confusing the why it is grounded with the how. I see a group here only caring about why it was grounded, not how it became so, even though how it became so is the necessary lead into why. To shorten, without the how, there's no why. There's many links to the chain into how this was grounded. The pilots' performance is a big link in that chain.

And like I just said, if we only care about the why and not the how, we're contributing to the unnecessarily dangerous safety culture exposed in the industry. We will have more accidents if we only focus on why it is grounded. It's a reactionary "safety" culture.

scbriml wrote:
The MAX wouldn’t be grounded if there was nothing wrong with it, would it?


Judging by the precedent in this grounding, it was potentially grounded with nothing "wrong" as the "wrong" wasn't fully known yet.

One thing is fact though. There's things wrong at JT, and it's not grounded.
 
Ertro
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:45 pm

The most important question related to "how" is not "how it was grounded" but "how it was not grounded". It could and should have been grounded immediately after Lion air crash at latest and now we have been getting a lot of information that it should have been grounded even earlier before either of the crashes.

MSPNWA wrote:
And like I just said, if we only care about the why and not the how, we're contributing to the unnecessarily dangerous safety culture exposed in the industry. We will have more accidents if we only focus on why it is grounded. It's a reactionary "safety" culture.


If problems are fixed only after there are crashes with fatalities that is the reactionary "safety" culture.

MSPNWA wrote:
Judging by the precedent in this grounding, it was potentially grounded with nothing "wrong" as the "wrong" wasn't fully known yet.


So you think for the safety that you care so much the plane should have kept flying?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:47 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Judging by the precedent in this grounding, it was potentially grounded with nothing "wrong" as the "Wrong” wasn’t fully known yet


Firstly, the MAX wasn’t grounded as a result of the JT crash and secondly there isn’t something “wrong” with it, but something actually badly wrong which Boeing started to fix before it was grounded.
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:17 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
No, the cause of the grounding is much more than MCAS, as the final report stated. The why it is grounded is MCAS. I think you're confusing the why it is grounded with the how. I see a group here only caring about why it was grounded, not how it became so, even though how it became so is the necessary lead into why. To shorten, without the how, there's no why. There's many links to the chain into how this was grounded. The pilots' performance is a big link in that chain.

The JT610 final report is not related to the grounding, it would have been published even if the 737-8/9 MAX was not grounded at all.
How it was grounded ? The 737-8/9 MAX was grounded by aircraft safety certification agencies, there also set the safety rules, and will ultimately decide when that aircraft will be ready to return into service.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:25 pm

The MAXs are lined up on the Christmas tree in Moses Lake. Just install the JATO packs. As soon as the FAA lifts the grounding, launch at 30 second intervals.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:33 pm

Well it's looking like we all know how big too big to fail Boeing is these days. Their lobbying efforts were big enough apparently to get both Republicans and Democrats on board the FAA's reauthorization Act signed into law last year. Peter DeFazio being one of them. But he's not running from his decision now. He's acknowledging he overlooked it and that he's reconsidering the bill. The way I remember reading it the reauthorization was buried in some heavy text for privatization for the air traffic control system.

Anyway, its pretty concerning that we now have it law that mandates the aerospace industry oversees FAA performance reviews and pay salaries. Makes me not want to work in the aerospace industry anymore.
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MartijnNL
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:06 pm

morrisond wrote:
I totally second the 1,500 Hour requirement - with at least a few hundred in an actual aircraft and recurring training as well.

Having 200 hours and being put into a 737 is insane.

Not this again.

Installing MCAS on the 737 without telling anyone, that's insane.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:15 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
The JT610 final report is not related to the grounding, it would have been published even if the 737-8/9 MAX was not grounded at all.
How it was grounded ? The 737-8/9 MAX was grounded by aircraft safety certification agencies, there also set the safety rules, and will ultimately decide when that aircraft will be ready to return into service.


No, that's not the same "how" it was grounded. You're talking the action of grounding. Everyone knows the action of grounding and no one much cares about it. I'm talking the events that caused the grounding - the "how did we get to this point". It's here because of crashes. How did we get there? Lots of reasons. But apparently not every one matters. The tell-tale marks of a political, greedy, anti-safety culture. Interestingly very similar to what Boeing is accused of.

scbriml wrote:
Firstly, the MAX wasn’t grounded as a result of the JT crash and secondly there isn’t something “wrong” with it, but something actually badly wrong which Boeing started to fix before it was grounded.

Nice red herrings. Nobody disputes the fact that the MAX wasn't grounded after JT, and nobody disputes there isn't something wrong with the MAX. You completely avoided the facts I stated in my post.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:53 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Nice red herrings. Nobody disputes the fact that the MAX wasn't grounded after JT, and nobody disputes there isn't something wrong with the MAX. You completely avoided the facts I stated in my post.


No red herrings at all and I'm not ignoring anything. I've never claimed that Boeing is entirely at fault, but the MAX is grounded because it's flawed not because of Lion Air's (or Ethiopian's) issues.

You also said the MAX was potentially grounded with nothing wrong which is patently incorrect as Boeing was already working to fix the broken MAX before it was grounded.
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sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:46 pm

PITingres wrote:
What have been seriously inappropriate throughout these threads were the attempts to fix fault in one place, whether training or airplane, without giving due recognition to the (rather disturbing) number of areas that critically contributed, from training to maintenance to piloting to aircraft design.


There's no verifiable proof yet that the AOA was shown to be defective, on either flight.

I'm aware of the FAA's (coincidentally timed) shutdown of a Florida repair shop, but the shop IIRC is not acknowledging either (a) they did anything wrong or (b) that indeed the JT610 sensor they refurbished was not performed correctly, resulting in faulty operation. FAA's press release makes no statement on the airworthiness/repair of the JT610 sensor. So it looks like another timely release of "spin" to buildup DM's case when he appears for testimony next week.

Just a review of the "timely" events that have come out in the last week/month, leading into the upcoming Dennis Muilenberg testimony next week:

(1) Sept 19, 2019 NTSB releases report on both crashes, blaming pilots indirectly by blaming pilot over-workload, in turn blaming bad cockpit design.
Note: The NTSB report is careful to include the words "input" and "output" when referring to "erroneous AOA sensor". So it is ambiguous as to whether the sensor itself is erroneous, or the AOA signal somewhere down the line, eg from the ADIRU.
https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Acc ... SR1901.pdf
Note: NTSB has always refused to comment on ongoing investigations, yet pre-empted the Indonesian NTSC report by releasing theirs one month before the required one year wait.

(2) Oct 7, 2019 Boeing's most loyal customer - Southwest - pilot's union files suit claiming Boeing hid MCAS from them - "Boeing withheld critical information from regulators and deliberately mislead its customers, pilots and the public and the true scope of the design changes to the 737 Max"
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/07/76810223 ... -grounding

(3) Oct 11, 2019 FAA releases JATR final report, damning the lack of FAA oversight of the Max certification, specifically the ODA process:
https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachme ... t_2019.pdf

(3.1) Oct 11, 2019 Dennis Muilenburg removed as Chairman of Board of Directors:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ard-chair/

(4) Oct 18, 2019 Release of the Forkner/Gustavsson IM exchange showing a discussion of MCAS aggressive stab trim behavior.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/18/busi ... ssage.html

(5) Oct 21, 2019 Boeing statement that the Forkner/Gustavsson IM exchange was about simulator issues rather than true MCAS issues.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-461616/

(6) Oct 22, 2019 FAA statement they received Boeings MCAS 2.0 fix submittal.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKBN1X11MM

(7) Oct 22, 2019 Boeing fires Kevin McAllister, president and CEO of the commercial airplanes unit
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/22/77235336 ... ash-losses

(8) Oct 25, 2019 Indonesia NTSC releases the JT610 crash report
http://knkt.dephub.go.id/knkt/ntsc_avia ... Report.pdf

(9) Oct 25, 2019 FAA shutting down the Florida repair shop that supposedly performed the refurbishment of the AOA sensor involved in the JT610 crash.
https://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases ... wsId=24314
Note: The FAA does not state that the repair shop incorrectly repaired the AOA sensor. They only state that the shop did not fully follow procedures in their day-to-day business.
The Reuters story is nice enough to describe it as "sensor suspected of contributing...".
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-xtra ... SKBN1X41OB
Yet Seattle Times story (hmm are we biased?) uses more direct language "FAA shuts down Florida repair firm that supplied faulty Lion Air ...":
https://www.seattletimes.com/subscribe/ ... ir-sensor/

(10) Oct 27, 2019 An NYT article is posted, reporting how Boeing and it's lobbyists lobbied for the FAA Reauthorization Act, signed into law weeks before the JT610 crash, taking considerable power away from the FAA.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/27/busi ... ashes.html
Last edited by sgrow787 on Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:08 am, edited 3 times in total.
Just one sensor,
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Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:47 pm

PITingres wrote:
I agree with most of what you are saying, except the last sentence. Many posters here, especially in the earlier parts of the threads, seem to think that fault is like a cartoon bomb that has to be handed to one and only one entity, and that's just not how it works. My take on the one individual's posting is that they were mostly an attempt to introduce the notion that perhaps multiple faults were involved. I have no idea why this was seen as an attempt to protect Boeing, given the multiple and repeated statements from him saying that MCAS 1 was clearly at fault.

What have been seriously inappropriate throughout these threads were the attempts to fix fault in one place, whether training or airplane, without giving due recognition to the (rather disturbing) number of areas that critically contributed, from training to maintenance to piloting to aircraft design.



What is apparent in this thread since the report has been released is one poster posting all the time how this flight would have been okay had the captain not had flu and the first officer been of a better standard. That is not looking at other reasons why the accident happened but trying to shift the blame. This thread is about the MAX grounding worldwide and yet we have been reading for the whole weekend about the substandard pilots that should have saved the flight.

All I'm saying is that people needn't have died in this case if the pilots were not incapacitated and were properly trained. It is not a foregone conclusion that a properly trained average crew with proper CRM even if they didn't know anything about MCAS would not have saved it.


That is not looking for one of the causes, that is trying to shift the blame. You can bet once the ET report comes out and as you post one of the contributing factors will be the pilot actions posters will be quoting the parts of the report to fight their corner. And then you have the "fact" that the previous crew was able to save the flight which just shows how this crew was incompetent. This is wrong and ignores the facts that a third pilot in the cockpit suggested it as a solution. No third pilot then what would the blame have been for crew actions?

morrisond wrote:
The SIM scenario's were putting people in the cockpit at the tail end of the crashes when MCAS had fired multiple times and the plane was too far gone - not at the beginning when proper procedures would have saved the aircraft.


Do you have a source to confirm that this is what happened?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:29 am

So how many minutes should a FO take to come up with a memory item? Anything under 10 minutes?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:35 am

enzo011 wrote:
That is not looking for one of the causes, that is trying to shift the blame. You can bet once the ET report comes out and as you post one of the contributing factors will be the pilot actions posters will be quoting the parts of the report to fight their corner. And then you have the "fact" that the previous crew was able to save the flight which just shows how this crew was incompetent. This is wrong and ignores the facts that a third pilot in the cockpit suggested it as a solution. No third pilot then what would the blame have been for crew actions?

What I do not understand with this line of thinking is the 22 times that the Captain countered MCAS, something he did not know about and no third pilot was in the cockpit. Hence the reason why I just read these comments and get lost, a third pilot means that MCAS can only be countered if a pilot is available who is not overwhelmed by the lights, but another countering 22 times then handing off means....
Anyway, ignore, just needed to try to understand the logic, it has been around for months.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:38 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
So how many minutes should a FO take to come up with a memory item? Anything under 10 minutes?

Early on in this thread, there was a 737 pilot who said that his company didn’t require memorization of all the “memory item” lists, including runaway stab. Instead, lists were on flashcards kept in the cockpit. So, even though Boeing may use the term “memory items,” apparently that does not explicitly mean that memorization is required.

I will say, it certainly does sound like Lion Air could use some flashcards.
 
ubeema
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:50 am

Clearly 737MAX grounding thread is turning into JT610 Crash final report discussion (with plenty of I told you so...). Pretty sure thread will rebound with same energy when ET302 report comes out in couple months.

Remember in the same week CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes division was sacked (I believe it is the first VP level dismissal since the saga began, save some retirements). We have already seen completed NTSB and JATR reports both confirming the grounding was fully justified and actually too late. JATR issued no less than 12 findings/observations/recommendations on the 737MAX. Both reports were welcomed without objections by FAA and Boeing.

Let’s not forget the conclusion of crash investigations will not change the fact that 737MAX will remain grounded until all required changes are fully certified by FAA. It’s amazing that MCAS upgrades have now been in the works at Boeing for nearly a year, and yet has not received approval by FAA. We know a faulty MCAS design, coupled with Boeing dubious safety culture, and topped by an ill conceived certification process grounded the planes. DOJ, DOT, US Congress are investigating both FAA and Boeing. Both crashes were symptoms of a larger problem with 737MAX, that would not have been uncovered but for the deaths of so many.

JATR report established Boeing should have acted immediately after the first crash. Pretty clear that failure to act brought the interest of DOJ well before ET crash.

12 recommendations by worldwide airline regulators give us more than enough to argue here but, if you are looking to discuss pilot training standards abroad or to apportion blame on pilots visit the respective crash investigations threads and lash out all you want. Doing so on this thread you are simply OFF topic and cluttering the thread.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:56 am

asdf wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
morrisond wrote:

I've said multiple times Boeing really screwed up and that MCAS should never have been certified.

All I'm saying is that people needn't have died in this case if the pilots were not incapacitated and were properly trained. It is not a foregone conclusion that a properly trained average crew with proper CRM even if they didn't know anything about MCAS would not have saved it.

The SIM scenario's were putting people in the cockpit at the tail end of the crashes when MCAS had fired multiple times and the plane was too far gone - not at the beginning when proper procedures would have saved the aircraft.

Actually by the almost total silence after the Lion Air final report came out - I think I am a lot closer to the mark than many will admit.

So far the only "evidence" we have is that one crew with a pilot who was incapacitated and a co-pilot who was cited for lacking basic flying skills was unable to save it.

The previous flight managed to make it.

I would be interested to hear what Sully has to say about Lion Air now that we know the condition/ability of the pilots.

You use always the same schema since many months to loop at every possible opportunity to blame the pilots.
1) Drop a "Boeing screwed up big time" line to protect you against any reaction.
2) Spread a long text of a random choices of arguments in your long list of arguments to blame the pilots.
3) Change a bit the text to not look as copy-and-past arguments.
4) Divert the initial discussion with random question.
5) Repeat a dozen time per day.
Did you get money based on the number of post to blame the pilots ? Because outside of that goal, your astonish number of posts aren't contributing as much with new and valuable information.
This forum is not just for you.


it seems kinda obsession, doesnt it?


viewtopic.php?f=5&t=766823&p=11068127#p11068127

a thread from eight years ago

how boeing could gain on adding engines with larger diameter on the 737....

„..... How much more efficient would the 737 be by literally slapping new engines on using existing hookups and no other changes to the frame? I call this the 737AEO (Alternative Engine Option) I've read that fan diameter does not mean as much below a certain distance - is this 500nm, 1000nm or 1500nm where what 90% of NB operations take place? What percentage of efficiency gain would you get by going this route? 75% of what you would get be resizing and optimizing? Please correct my assumptions below if I am wrong. But in this scenario I'm assuming that Boeings involvement in this would be very limited,....“

ok, boeing named it MAX instead of AEO but actually they did exactly this
slapping bigger engines on the frame and dont involve a lot ...


Yes - my name is really James McNerny - it was my idea to do the MAX. You caught me.

Actually - if you look through my posts from that time - you will find me quite active advocating for NSA - and I probably have almost as many posts as Kessje in the past few years - advocating for my tight light 7W combined NMA/NSA program.
 
Planetalk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:56 am

enzo011 wrote:

morrisond wrote:
The SIM scenario's were putting people in the cockpit at the tail end of the crashes when MCAS had fired multiple times and the plane was too far gone - not at the beginning when proper procedures would have saved the aircraft.


Do you have a source to confirm that this is what happened?


I'm quite sure they don't as it isn't what happened. The reports stated that the sim sessions started at the beginning of the accident sequences. After all what use at all would it serve to run the simulations from a point where the planes were already unrecoverable?

Just another example of that poster twisting inconvenient facts and outright posting false information to support their theory which once again, still has not a shred of support or evidence the investigations.

Their entire theory has literally been shown to be entirely false and yet they keep posting it rather than accepting what the facts tell them. We can all draw our own conclusions as to why that might be. I kind of feel sorry for them spending so long here posting the same thing over and over, not realising it's completely futile, because we weren't all born yesterday.

It is rather narcissistic though to somehow think you know better than everyone in the industry about what happened without having actually been involved in any of the investigation.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:01 am

MartijnNL wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I totally second the 1,500 Hour requirement - with at least a few hundred in an actual aircraft and recurring training as well.

Having 200 hours and being put into a 737 is insane.

Not this again.

Installing MCAS on the 737 without telling anyone, that's insane.


Did you dig that up from a few weeks ago?

BTW - they did tell the Airlines in the tech manuals - they just judged (wrongly) that the Pilots did not need to know.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:07 am

enzo011 wrote:
PITingres wrote:
I agree with most of what you are saying, except the last sentence. Many posters here, especially in the earlier parts of the threads, seem to think that fault is like a cartoon bomb that has to be handed to one and only one entity, and that's just not how it works. My take on the one individual's posting is that they were mostly an attempt to introduce the notion that perhaps multiple faults were involved. I have no idea why this was seen as an attempt to protect Boeing, given the multiple and repeated statements from him saying that MCAS 1 was clearly at fault.

What have been seriously inappropriate throughout these threads were the attempts to fix fault in one place, whether training or airplane, without giving due recognition to the (rather disturbing) number of areas that critically contributed, from training to maintenance to piloting to aircraft design.



What is apparent in this thread since the report has been released is one poster posting all the time how this flight would have been okay had the captain not had flu and the first officer been of a better standard. That is not looking at other reasons why the accident happened but trying to shift the blame. This thread is about the MAX grounding worldwide and yet we have been reading for the whole weekend about the substandard pilots that should have saved the flight.

All I'm saying is that people needn't have died in this case if the pilots were not incapacitated and were properly trained. It is not a foregone conclusion that a properly trained average crew with proper CRM even if they didn't know anything about MCAS would not have saved it.


That is not looking for one of the causes, that is trying to shift the blame. You can bet once the ET report comes out and as you post one of the contributing factors will be the pilot actions posters will be quoting the parts of the report to fight their corner. And then you have the "fact" that the previous crew was able to save the flight which just shows how this crew was incompetent. This is wrong and ignores the facts that a third pilot in the cockpit suggested it as a solution. No third pilot then what would the blame have been for crew actions?

morrisond wrote:
The SIM scenario's were putting people in the cockpit at the tail end of the crashes when MCAS had fired multiple times and the plane was too far gone - not at the beginning when proper procedures would have saved the aircraft.


Do you have a source to confirm that this is what happened?


Actually - I have posted many times that everybody got it wrong - Boeing, the FAA, Lion Air Maintenance and Lion Air training.

I did not say 100% they would have saved the flight - I just said if they had been a normal crew they might possibly have.

A pilot who was incapacitated and an Co-pilot who should not have had a license don't qualify as "Normal" and are well below standard.

Please stop trying to misrepresent what I have been saying.

Watch the Video's of the SIM's on Youtube.
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:12 am

MartijnNL wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I totally second the 1,500 Hour requirement - with at least a few hundred in an actual aircraft and recurring training as well.

Having 200 hours and being put into a 737 is insane.

Not this again.

Installing MCAS on the 737 without telling anyone, that's insane.


BOTH are insane.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:45 am

scbriml wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
Nice red herrings. Nobody disputes the fact that the MAX wasn't grounded after JT, and nobody disputes there isn't something wrong with the MAX. You completely avoided the facts I stated in my post.


No red herrings at all and I'm not ignoring anything. I've never claimed that Boeing is entirely at fault, but the MAX is grounded because it's flawed not because of Lion Air's (or Ethiopian's) issues.

You also said the MAX was potentially grounded with nothing wrong which is patently incorrect as Boeing was already working to fix the broken MAX before it was grounded.


It was grounded because the ET crew wasn't able to follow the EAD (whether that was due to crew performance or some other technical factor won't be known until the final report) and recover from a failed AoA sensor. The EAD was the stopgap to give Boeing time to develop MCAS 2.0. Once there was a crash after the EAD was put into place, there was no choice but to ground it.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:46 am

morrisond wrote:

BTW - they did tell the Airlines in the tech manuals - they just judged (wrongly) that the Pilots did not need to know.

I don't think we really know what Boeing judged. We know what they stated and we know we can't trust what they state. And we also know it's taking them a long time to incorporate the offside AOA sensor into the mcast fix. Uline

So it seems plausible to consider that Boeing's judgment on pilot performance was nothing but a gap-fill for their safety assessment.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
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PITingres
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:47 am

sgrow787 wrote:
PITingres wrote:
What have been seriously inappropriate throughout these threads were the attempts to fix fault in one place, whether training or airplane, without giving due recognition to the (rather disturbing) number of areas that critically contributed, from training to maintenance to piloting to aircraft design.


There's no verifiable proof yet that the AOA was shown to be defective, on either flight.
...



Did I mention the AOA sensor specifically? No. It was likely mis-calibrated, but there's no way to prove or disprove it, and that's one of the issues right there. There were reporting errors and omissions from multiple parties, including maintenance. Read the report.
Fly, you fools! Fly!
 
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PITingres
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:58 am

enzo011 wrote:
PITingres wrote:
...



What is apparent in this thread since the report has been released is one poster posting all the time how this flight would have been okay had the captain not had flu and the first officer been of a better standard. That is not looking at other reasons why the accident happened but trying to shift the blame.


I'm curious as to why that is your perception? because it certainly isn't mine, not when so many of the other thousands of posts have been knee-jerk "mustn't blame the pilots because the airplane was wrong". Once again, fault is not an indivisible thing. Boeing rightly bears the brunt, but it mustn't stop there. Had the argument that there was more to it than MCAS not been rejected out of hand by so many, I doubt that morrisond would have felt it necessary to keep it up. I see it as extending blame, not shifting it. The KNKT report has been quite the eye-opener as to just how many things did go wrong. (As is typical for an aircraft accident.)

This thread is about the MAX grounding worldwide and yet we have been reading for the whole weekend about the substandard pilots that should have saved the flight.


Very little of these threads was about the grounding specifically, if you're going to draw the line that narrowly. Or do you mean that the threads must be about the Boeing issues specifically and nothing else? That's hardly constructive.
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sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:02 am

PITingres wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
PITingres wrote:
What have been seriously inappropriate throughout these threads were the attempts to fix fault in one place, whether training or airplane, without giving due recognition to the (rather disturbing) number of areas that critically contributed, from training to maintenance to piloting to aircraft design.


There's no verifiable proof yet that the AOA was shown to be defective, on either flight.
...



Did I mention the AOA sensor specifically? No. It was likely mis-calibrated, but there's no way to prove or disprove it, and that's one of the issues right there. There were reporting errors and omissions from multiple parties, including maintenance. Read the report.


No, but you mentioned maintenance. In any case, we know that the AOA sensor was replaced at Denpaser, and that the triage for that replacement was unreliable airspeed. We also know that AOA disagree indicator wasn't working prior to the crashes, so no diagnostic messages for AOA would have appeared in any log anywhere. In the meantime, no one has ruled out a bad or badly mounted ADIRU. And you want me to think that the same day they decided to replace a AOA sensor with a good one, they also messed up the installation of that replacement? Again it's possible, but we just don't know. We therefore can't include maintenance (on that day) as a hole in the cheese.

The Swiss cheese model simply doesn't apply to the Max crashes. The aircraft wasn't airworthy and should never have been authorized to fly to begin with.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
benbeny
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:11 am

So we all know what's wrong.
1. Boeing designed a stupid system.
2. Boeing screwed up big time by not telling pilots about stupid system.
3. Regulatory oversight that left much to be desired.
4. Repair shop that didn't do something right.
5. Maintenance that didn't check AoA vane installation.
6. Half incapacitated pilot and incompetent copilot that couldn't even remember memorized items.
7. Mishandling by copilot when it's handed to him by the pilot.

If one of them didn't exist, we wouldn't have the chain of disaster. Now of course a system shouldn't try to kill someone, and without their knowledge. That's a big screw up. But the root cause is still there, the stupid system that tried to kill you and not telling anybody about it's existence. Too bad it happened on a developing country airline first. Now imagine the difference of reaction in here if it happened in the developed country airline.
 
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PITingres
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:16 am

sgrow787 wrote:
... In any case, we know that the AOA sensor was replaced at Denpaser, and that the triage for that replacement was unreliable airspeed. We also know that AOA disagree indicator wasn't working prior to the crashes, so no diagnostic messages for AOA would have appeared in any log anywhere. In the meantime, no one has ruled out a bad or badly mounted ADIRU. And you want me to think that the same day they decided to replace a AOA sensor with a good one, they also messed up the installation of that replacement?


Once again, did you read the report? Findings 82, 83, 84, 86, 87. I'm not asking you to believe anything related to the AOA sensor, that's putting words in my mouth that I never said. I'm stating that mistakes were made by the maintenance organizations, among many others.
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RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:21 am

Even if there hadn't been two crashes and the pilots had saved the plane, the MAX would have still had to have gone through exactly the same process of being grounded and Boeing would still have hundreds of them sitting on the ground doing nothing.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:53 am

RickNRoll wrote:
Even if there hadn't been two crashes and the pilots had saved the plane, the MAX would have still had to have gone through exactly the same process of being grounded and Boeing would still have hundreds of them sitting on the ground doing nothing.

Really, this one I gotta here, without the crashes, what would have been the reason for grounding the a/c for so many months?
Pilots saving the a/c would have justified Boeing's contention of not needing to inform the pilots of MCAS and only doing iPad training right?
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:18 am

par13del wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
Even if there hadn't been two crashes and the pilots had saved the plane, the MAX would have still had to have gone through exactly the same process of being grounded and Boeing would still have hundreds of them sitting on the ground doing nothing.

Really, this one I gotta here, without the crashes, what would have been the reason for grounding the a/c for so many months?
Pilots saving the a/c would have justified Boeing's contention of not needing to inform the pilots of MCAS and only doing iPad training right?


I think RickNRoll meant "should have" instead of "would have".
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:20 am

Here's the AOA repair details from the Lion Air report, pg 36:

"Based on repair records, the unit was disassembled to replace the eroded vane. After vane replacement and reassembly the unit was calibrated and tested to the requirements of the CMM Revision 8 (current at the time of the repair). The work order stated that the results for the required tests were satisfactory. Xtra Aerospace approved S/N 14488 for return to service on 3 November 2017.
On 27 November 2017, Xtra Aerospace sent the unit to the Malindo Air stores facility where it was received in Kuala Lumpur on 01 December 2017. Malindo Air sent S/N 14488 from Kuala Lumpur to BAT store in Batam on 20 December 2017. BAT received S/N 14488 on 22 December 2017.
On 28 October 2018, the AOA sensor sent from Batam at 0900 LT (0200 UTC) and received at Denpasar station about 1830 LT (1030 UTC) where it was installed on the left position of PK-LQP aircraft."

Also on that page:

"The test equipment (AOA test fixture SPL-1917) was not available in Denpasar therefore, the engineer in Denpasar used the alternative method. The alternative method is performed by deflecting the AOA vane to the fully up, center, and fully down positions while verifying the indication on the SMYD computer for each position. "

Therefore, I don't see a maintenance issue related to the JT610 crash.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:36 am

par13del wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
Even if there hadn't been two crashes and the pilots had saved the plane, the MAX would have still had to have gone through exactly the same process of being grounded and Boeing would still have hundreds of them sitting on the ground doing nothing.

Really, this one I gotta here, without the crashes, what would have been the reason for grounding the a/c for so many months?
Pilots saving the a/c would have justified Boeing's contention of not needing to inform the pilots of MCAS and only doing iPad training right?

Sure the MAX was grounded 10th to 13th March right after the ET crash. And had that crash not happened, then very likely history had been slightly different.

But I'm an optimist. If we for a moment imagine that the ET crash had not happened, but the crew somehow had managed to save the plane, and lived to tell what they had been up against, and they later had discovered what crappy thing they had trusted, then.....

First of all, they and their colleagues would have refused to fly the MAX, the Ethiopian authorities would be involved to investigate, and it would escalate geographically. It might have taken a week or two more to come to a world wide grounding.

As I said, I'm an optimist. I simply cannot imagine that such an obvious blunder could have been hidden under the carpet, twice within four and a half months.

And following this MAX event I am even more sure that such a blunder will not be repeated in the next one hundred years. Books will be written about the MAX. Millions of students around the world will learn, with the MAX as example, how important it is to design real redundancy into potentially catastrophic machinery and structures of any kind.
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:40 am

par13del wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
That is not looking for one of the causes, that is trying to shift the blame. You can bet once the ET report comes out and as you post one of the contributing factors will be the pilot actions posters will be quoting the parts of the report to fight their corner. And then you have the "fact" that the previous crew was able to save the flight which just shows how this crew was incompetent. This is wrong and ignores the facts that a third pilot in the cockpit suggested it as a solution. No third pilot then what would the blame have been for crew actions?

What I do not understand with this line of thinking is the 22 times that the Captain countered MCAS, something he did not know about and no third pilot was in the cockpit. Hence the reason why I just read these comments and get lost, a third pilot means that MCAS can only be countered if a pilot is available who is not overwhelmed by the lights, but another countering 22 times then handing off means....
Anyway, ignore, just needed to try to understand the logic, it has been around for months.


You are missing the part that he was basically functionally incapacitated by the Flu. Which makes it understandable why he missed turning off electric trim 22x - but he should not have been in the cockpit in that state. He probably would not have missed reading the report on the previous flight either if he did not have the flu and recalled how they turned off electric trim to get around the issue.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:44 am

benbeny wrote:
So we all know what's wrong.
1. Boeing designed a stupid system.
2. Boeing screwed up big time by not telling pilots about stupid system.
3. Regulatory oversight that left much to be desired.
4. Repair shop that didn't do something right.
5. Maintenance that didn't check AoA vane installation.
6. Half incapacitated pilot and incompetent copilot that couldn't even remember memorized items.
7. Mishandling by copilot when it's handed to him by the pilot.

If one of them didn't exist, we wouldn't have the chain of disaster. Now of course a system shouldn't try to kill someone, and without their knowledge. That's a big screw up. But the root cause is still there, the stupid system that tried to kill you and not telling anybody about it's existence. Too bad it happened on a developing country airline first. Now imagine the difference of reaction in here if it happened in the developed country airline.


Good summary.

I can imagine both Boeing and the Airline would be in Chapter 11 by now.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:48 am

prebennorholm wrote:
par13del wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
Even if there hadn't been two crashes and the pilots had saved the plane, the MAX would have still had to have gone through exactly the same process of being grounded and Boeing would still have hundreds of them sitting on the ground doing nothing.

Really, this one I gotta here, without the crashes, what would have been the reason for grounding the a/c for so many months?
Pilots saving the a/c would have justified Boeing's contention of not needing to inform the pilots of MCAS and only doing iPad training right?

Sure the MAX was grounded 10th to 13th March right after the ET crash. And had that crash not happened, then very likely history had been slightly different.

But I'm an optimist. If we for a moment imagine that the ET crash had not happened, but the crew somehow had managed to save the plane, and lived to tell what they had been up against, and they later had discovered what crappy thing they had trusted, then.....

First of all, they and their colleagues would have refused to fly the MAX, the Ethiopian authorities would be involved to investigate, and it would escalate geographically. It might have taken a week or two more to come to a world wide grounding.

As I said, I'm an optimist. I simply cannot imagine that such an obvious blunder could have been hidden under the carpet, twice within four and a half months.

And following this MAX event I am even more sure that such a blunder will not be repeated in the next one hundred years. Books will be written about the MAX. Millions of students around the world will learn, with the MAX as example, how important it is to design real redundancy into potentially catastrophic machinery and structures of any kind.


Your more optimistic than me - I give it 20-25 years maximum - if we are lucky. The more complex systems get the more potential failures there are.

People will forget all too soon.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:09 am

In the end it does not matter. A competent crew might have saved the planes, but the plane should not put the plane into that situation in the first place. Although it is very likely, that no crash would have meant no grounding.
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:53 am

PITingres wrote:
astuteman wrote:
...But it IS why the focus has been, is, and should be, around the MAX architecture that was so deeply flawed as to be utterly vulnerable to these shortcomings.
The OEM's know how to make planes that demonstrably aren't anything like as vulnerable to these shortcomings.
The MAX's immediate predecessor amongst them.
And it is why one individual's unending diversion of this, the MAX grounding thread into crew training has been seriously inappropriate. ...


I agree with most of what you are saying, except the last sentence. Many posters here, especially in the earlier parts of the threads, seem to think that fault is like a cartoon bomb that has to be handed to one and only one entity, and that's just not how it works. My take on the one individual's posting is that they were mostly an attempt to introduce the notion that perhaps multiple faults were involved. I have no idea why this was seen as an attempt to protect Boeing, given the multiple and repeated statements from him saying that MCAS 1 was clearly at fault.

What have been seriously inappropriate throughout these threads were the attempts to fix fault in one place, whether training or airplane, without giving due recognition to the (rather disturbing) number of areas that critically contributed, from training to maintenance to piloting to aircraft design.


Nobody fails to recognise the complexity of causes that go into crashes like these, and nobody has posted on here like fault is a cartoon bomb, as you see to think - not in my judgement.

The issue is that if these same pilots in the same conditions had been in a 737NG or an A320 there would have been no crashes, threads, or comments.

When there is a step change in outcome like there has been for the MAX, you have to look at what has changed. And what changed wasn't the pilots, the training or the maintenance. It was the aircraft. Period.
And that is why the focus on the MAX grounding HAS to be on the MAX.

It's not about bashing Boeing.
And to prove it, Boeing make some of the safest planes out there, one of which, the 737NG is arguably the safest plane in the sky.
Which just makes the MAX fiasco all the more appalling, in my view, because its not like Boeing don't know how to design planes that are safe in today's environment.
They clearly do. And they clearly took short cuts for financial gain.
Unarguably so.

The issue I have with the myopic obsession with training is this …

PixelFlight wrote:
You use always the same schema since many months to loop at every possible opportunity to blame the pilots.
1) Drop a "Boeing screwed up big time" line to protect you against any reaction..


And that's how it comes across.
Someone wanting to view the whole picture, as you rightly say they should, would equally be interrogating the actions of Boeing.
This is for the clear reasons I cited above. It was their change that initiated all of this. No-one elses

But all you get is a signature
"yeah, Boeing screwed up some … but those Pilots eh? Jeez! …."

And that is all you get.
Over and over and over again
It doesn't pass the smell test for me.

Rgds
Last edited by astuteman on Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Ertro
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:14 am

par13del wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
Even if there hadn't been two crashes and the pilots had saved the plane, the MAX would have still had to have gone through exactly the same process of being grounded and Boeing would still have hundreds of them sitting on the ground doing nothing.

Really, this one I gotta here, without the crashes, what would have been the reason for grounding the a/c for so many months?
Pilots saving the a/c would have justified Boeing's contention of not needing to inform the pilots of MCAS and only doing iPad training right?


Lets imagine a completely different timeline where a Spicejet MAX experienced a rollercoaster after takeoff from India where pilots miraculously saved the plane after shaving 2 feet from treetops. A half a year later same thing happened to Gol Aerolineas MAX in Brasil and now after a scary flight where plane lost a lot of height after takeoff bouncing from seawater but getting back to air.

Would you be happy to let your family and friends fly in a Jet Airways MAX in India?
Would Boeing executives be happy to let their their family and friends fly in in a Copa Airlines MAX in Panama?
What about Lion Air MAX or Ethiopian MAX?
Would they be saying this is the safest plane ever and we just made it safer by adding one more slide to iPad training course?
Would you be happy to let the next plane 777X to be designed the same way without major correction to mindset.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:50 am

As @astuteman says
"The issue is that if these same pilots in the same conditions had been in a 737NG or an A320 there would have been no crashes, threads, or comments." and 346 people would still be alive.

So Boeing gets MCAS V2 approved by the FAA and says the 737MAX is good to go... hold on a minute, what about all the other issues that don't comply with current FAA regulations that have been 'grandfathered' .. maybe the other worldwide regulators will want to look more deeply into those?

Will be interesting to watch DM's testimony in front of Congress, although I expect it will turn into a circus with nothing meaningful coming out of it.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:13 am

sgrow787 wrote:

(10) Oct 27, 2019 An NYT article is posted, reporting how Boeing and it's lobbyists lobbied for the FAA Reauthorization Act, signed into law weeks before the JT610 crash, taking considerable power away from the FAA. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/27/busi ... ashes.html


That's the interesting part of Muilenburg testemony this week with rule makers..

On which side of the table should Congress sit really ?

What Congress demanded from FAA: https://www.gao.gov/assets/690/683649.pdf

How this rulemaking worked out:https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/The_Joint_Authorities_Technical_Review_(JATR)_-_Boeing_737_MAX_Flight_Control_System

How much Boeing spends on lobbying congress to move beacons https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/boeing-s-washington-influence-network-tested-in-737-max-crisis
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:29 am

keesje wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:

(10) Oct 27, 2019 An NYT article is posted, reporting how Boeing and it's lobbyists lobbied for the FAA Reauthorization Act, signed into law weeks before the JT610 crash, taking considerable power away from the FAA. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/27/busi ... ashes.html


That's the interesting part of Muilenburg testemony this week with rule makers..

On which side of the table should Congress sit really ?

What Congress demanded from FAA: https://www.gao.gov/assets/690/683649.pdf

How this rulemaking worked out:https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/The_Joint_Authorities_Technical_Review_(JATR)_-_Boeing_737_MAX_Flight_Control_System

How much Boeing spends on lobbying congress to move beacons https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/boeing-s-washington-influence-network-tested-in-737-max-crisis

Congress sits on whatever side gets them good press and leads to reelection. Many times that means grandstanding during televised hearings and doing nothing afterwards.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:55 am

seahawk wrote:
You could acutally train for MCAS1.0, but that would require the system to be simulated in the simulators, mentioned in the manuals, having checklists redone to include MCAS failure and an working AoA disagree warning would be nice too.

It would break Boeings business case.



PW100 wrote:
I do not agree with that. The problem with that statement (and in particular the "pilot did it gang") is not distinguishing between the three levels of pilot training:
1) General Pilot Proficiency Worldwide
2) Type Specific Proficiency
3) Conversion Training from one model to another (sub) model.

If you are discussing 1), the I totally agree with you. But we cannot exclude 2) and 3) from the discussion.

I was discussing 1)! As was morrison (see next quote). 2) and 3) would break Boeings business model.

morrisond wrote:
Now that we have seen the Lion Air final report I think it's back more in the court of #1.

Have you forgotten, that global aviation safety excluding the MAX is astonishingly good? Also, have you not noticed that the crash rate of Lionair mentioned in an earlier post is in the same ballpark as the global crash rate?

morrisond wrote:
I don't know how you rank the egregious-nous of one over the other.

Like this: by categorizing the findings and contributional factors of the accident report. That puts blame as follows:

1. Findings blaming Boeing, the FAA or Xtra: 36
2. Findings blaming Maintenance deficiencies: 10
3. Findings blaming the crew: 7
4. Findings explicitly exonerating the crew (this kind of: "This would lead to the inability of the flight crew to predict and be prepared …."): 25

So Boeing (and FAA) is blamed the most in the report. By far. 6 times more than pilots. And for the 7 findings of pilot errors, 25 findings exist that explicitely exonerate the pilots.


planecane wrote:
From the JT610 report:

The MCAS was needed in order to make the Boeing 737-8 (MAX) handling characteristics so similar to the NG versions that no simulator training was needed for type rating. It was also required so that the 737 MAX passed the certification that the pitch controls could not get lighter on the approach to stall. If the aircraft had substantially different pitch behavior, then there would be a simulator training requirement for the pilots.


Does this put to rest the MCAS is a stall prevention system argument?

No! Ask yourself: Why should controls not get lighter on the approach to stall? Continue to ask, until there is no more "why is this?". The final answer will be, that controls should not get lighter on the approach to stall in order to prevent stalls.

morrisond wrote:
But they never even finished the runaway airspeed checklist - which was required to be an Memory item.

At least they were not as confused as you seem to be. There is no runaway airspeed checklist.

morrisond wrote:
They never though of trying the Runaway trim checklist - if you read the full transcript - it really does seem the Pilot is totally incapacitated due to the flu and can't handle the complexity

Can't you think of other reasons, why the complexity could not be handled? Could it be the complexity of the flawed design itself? There are 25 findings in the report, mostly blaming Boeing, that made it hard to handle the complexity for the crew. Only the flu is not mentioned.

morrisond wrote:
This accident will be used as a textbook case of what not to do as a crew for years.

You seem to assume, that pilot errors in a flawed aircraft are not normal. You seem to ignore the overwhelming nature how this incident was presented to them. The issue they focused on was not even the trim. All because the aircraft told them nothing about a failure in a trimming system but about several other things (stick shaker, ias disagree, alt disagree).

morrisond wrote:
I think some people on here would absolve the Pilots of any wrongdoing even if they were found to never have possessed a Pilot's license as in their minds Boeing should have accounted for that in the design.

Absurd hypothetical claim. It is a red herring because in that case, the pilot would have crashed an NG much earlier.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:10 pm

astuteman wrote:
Nobody fails to recognise the complexity of causes that go into crashes like these, and nobody has posted on here like fault is a cartoon bomb, as you see to think - not in my judgement.

The issue is that if these same pilots in the same conditions had been in a 737NG or an A320 there would have been no crashes, threads, or comments.

When there is a step change in outcome like there has been for the MAX, you have to look at what has changed. And what changed wasn't the pilots, the training or the maintenance. It was the aircraft. Period.

And that is why the focus on the MAX grounding HAS to be on the MAX.

Personally, I'm not at all confident this crew with the flu-addled pilot and incompetent co-pilot could operate a NG with a failed AoA sensor without a crash.

Would you disallow a discussion of crew performance in a hypothetical RN ship disaster even if the ship itself had a serious design shortcoming?

Or would you say they would not have crashed the previous generation RN ship so let's not discuss the crew's performance?
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:13 pm

How would a failed AoA sensor crash a NG?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:19 pm

seahawk wrote:
How would a failed AoA sensor crash a NG?

I don't know.

It's pretty clear this crew could not diagnose faults as a team.

It's not clear where their fault finding would take them.

It would not surprise me if they did more harm than good whilst fault finding.

I'm not confident in their hand flying abilities given the CA's illness and the FO's incompetence.

We've seen cases like Asiana where unpracticed crews who lose automation crash planes on clear days.

It would not surprise me if a similar thing happened to this crew.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
How would a failed AoA sensor crash a NG?

I don't know.

It's pretty clear this crew could not diagnose faults as a team.

It's not clear where their fault finding would take them.

It would not surprise me if they did more harm than good whilst fault finding.

I'm not confident in their hand flying abilities given the CA's illness and the FO's incompetence.

We've seen cases like Asiana where unpracticed crews who lose automation crash planes on clear days.

It would not surprise me if a similar thing happened to this crew.


Let's keep things in perspective instead of confusing the public as a form of damage control.

“The investigation considered that the design and certification of this feature was inadequate,” the report said. “The aircraft flight manual and flight crew training did not include information about MCAS.

“The absence of guidance on MCAS […] in the flight manuals and pilot training made it more difficult for flight crews to properly respond to uncommanded MCAS,”

On Friday, Boeing said it had implemented three new software fixes for the MCAS issues that would mean it was not dependent on a single sensor and that would allow a pilot to override it. Boeing has completed a certification test flight with the updates in place.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
Posts: 2843
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:34 pm

seahawk wrote:
In the end it does not matter. A competent crew might have saved the planes, but the plane should not put the plane into that situation in the first place. Although it is very likely, that no crash would have meant no grounding.


Agreed - unfortunately it probably would not have meant a grounding.

No meaningful Changes at Boeing would have been made

No changes at the FAA

No Changes in Maintenance practices - Actually it doesn't sound like all that many will be made

No Changes in Pilot training - Some changes will be made - but probably not enough - Legislation is needed to enforce more recurrent training in actual flying skills.

It's incredibly sad that People had to die - however the only upside is that it has not taken 4 separate incidents to expose all these cracks and hopefully the loss of their lives will be not in vain.

The only thing sadder than the loss of those lives is if we don't push for a lot more scrutiny of all 4 main parties to the crash(es). , with of course Boeing being the Root Cause.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7184
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Nobody fails to recognise the complexity of causes that go into crashes like these, and nobody has posted on here like fault is a cartoon bomb, as you see to think - not in my judgement.

The issue is that if these same pilots in the same conditions had been in a 737NG or an A320 there would have been no crashes, threads, or comments.

When there is a step change in outcome like there has been for the MAX, you have to look at what has changed. And what changed wasn't the pilots, the training or the maintenance. It was the aircraft. Period.

And that is why the focus on the MAX grounding HAS to be on the MAX.

Personally, I'm not at all confident this crew with the flu-addled pilot and incompetent co-pilot could operate a NG with a failed AoA sensor without a crash.

Would you disallow a discussion of crew performance in a hypothetical RN ship disaster even if the ship itself had a serious design shortcoming?

Or would you say they would not have crashed the previous generation RN ship so let's not discuss the crew's performance?


Can you please stop inventing hyperbole around my posting please - I'm sure you would react if someone did it to you.
I have clearly stated that its clear all the points are relevant, and have at no time mentioned "disallowing" any related topic.
Why would I be that stupid?
This is about focus rather than "disallowing" a conversation.

For a bit of rough context ..
On the basis that Lionair 737NG's have a fatal crash rate of 1 in 3.8 million versus the MAX fatal crash rate of 1 in 200 000, on a pro-rata basis of their significance I would have reasonably expected 38 out of 40 posts on this thread about the MAX to be about the MAX, and 2 out of 40 posts to be about the pilots.
As I said above, the thing that changed here and resulted in a step deterioration in safety performance was the MAX, not the pilots.

You are right that the findings of the Lionair report are absolutely valid, valuable and deeply concerning to all.
Hopefully they will lead to mandated and governed improvements to both pilot training/qualification and maintenance procedures so that all aircraft become safer, including the MAX.

But the MAX un-grounding cannot be dependent on global training.
It has to be dependent upon the specific redesign of the system and specific associated training.
That is where the focus of this thread should be

It is glaringly obvious that one particular poster has never questioned or challenged any of the system design or specific training but instead has obsessed with global training standards. It is just not rational, or understandable IMO
 
morrisond
Posts: 2843
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:39 pm

astuteman wrote:
PITingres wrote:
astuteman wrote:
...But it IS why the focus has been, is, and should be, around the MAX architecture that was so deeply flawed as to be utterly vulnerable to these shortcomings.
The OEM's know how to make planes that demonstrably aren't anything like as vulnerable to these shortcomings.
The MAX's immediate predecessor amongst them.
And it is why one individual's unending diversion of this, the MAX grounding thread into crew training has been seriously inappropriate. ...


I agree with most of what you are saying, except the last sentence. Many posters here, especially in the earlier parts of the threads, seem to think that fault is like a cartoon bomb that has to be handed to one and only one entity, and that's just not how it works. My take on the one individual's posting is that they were mostly an attempt to introduce the notion that perhaps multiple faults were involved. I have no idea why this was seen as an attempt to protect Boeing, given the multiple and repeated statements from him saying that MCAS 1 was clearly at fault.

What have been seriously inappropriate throughout these threads were the attempts to fix fault in one place, whether training or airplane, without giving due recognition to the (rather disturbing) number of areas that critically contributed, from training to maintenance to piloting to aircraft design.


Nobody fails to recognise the complexity of causes that go into crashes like these, and nobody has posted on here like fault is a cartoon bomb, as you see to think - not in my judgement.

The issue is that if these same pilots in the same conditions had been in a 737NG or an A320 there would have been no crashes, threads, or comments.

When there is a step change in outcome like there has been for the MAX, you have to look at what has changed. And what changed wasn't the pilots, the training or the maintenance. It was the aircraft. Period.
And that is why the focus on the MAX grounding HAS to be on the MAX.

It's not about bashing Boeing.
And to prove it, Boeing make some of the safest planes out there, one of which, the 737NG is arguably the safest plane in the sky.
Which just makes the MAX fiasco all the more appalling, in my view, because its not like Boeing don't know how to design planes that are safe in today's environment.
They clearly do. And they clearly took short cuts for financial gain.
Unarguably so.

The issue I have with the myopic obsession with training is this …

PixelFlight wrote:
You use always the same schema since many months to loop at every possible opportunity to blame the pilots.
1) Drop a "Boeing screwed up big time" line to protect you against any reaction..


And that's how it comes across.
Someone wanting to view the whole picture, as you rightly say they should, would equally be interrogating the actions of Boeing.
This is for the clear reasons I cited above. It was their change that initiated all of this. No-one elses

But all you get is a signature
"yeah, Boeing screwed up some … but those Pilots eh? Jeez! …."

And that is all you get.
Over and over and over again
It doesn't pass the smell test for me.

Rgds


I'm sorry if it doesn't - we just don't have the same level of detail on Boeing's actions.

We don't have a CVR transcript/ control traces to delve into the same level of detail. We don't have access to there email servers or recordings of all the MAX design meetings.

There is a lot of speculation and assumptions of what went on at Boeing but without more information we can only make general statements. We know they screwed up - we just don't know how intentional it was or who knew what.

If the criminal investigation does lead to charges hopefully more comes out.

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