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morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:30 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
We already know that Boeing and the FAA puts cost above safety.


In the past so has JT, Indonesia, ET, Ethiopia, EASA, etc., etc. Your point? What does that have to do with re-qualification?


It would make sense to install EICAS into the MAX. Already done in the P-8 so Boeing has experience with doing that.
It would make sense to fix the manual trim wheel, hardly something that is outside the competence of Boeing.
I can keep on with all the complaints of the various certification authorities that have been here discussed before.

The above will cost money, that is why Boeing is dragging its feet and plays chicken with the regulators, daring them to not certify the bare minimum Boeing is prepared to do.

Please point to where EASA has to your knowledge accepted safety related corner cutting, because it would cost the aircraft producer more money to do it the right way.
Your argument that it is allowed for Boeing to cut corners, because everybody does it, does not hold water.


Is the A320 NEO certified to the latest standards and has been fully updated for every new standard that has come into existence since initial certification in the 1980's? If not you better ground that as well.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:31 pm

par13del wrote:
keesje wrote:
Why is nobody asking for a formal Boeing responds to the JATR recommendations? The Senate could have asked.

Remind us again who commissioned the JATR report, that should go a long way in answering your question, at least based on A.Net standards.

When you go back to the original grounding, and the terms of reference for the multiple investigations, naturally Boeing wanted firm parameters, a position supported tacitly by the FAA. They didn't want scope creep, the enemy of speed and cost.

In contrast, EASA and other airworthiness authorities took the position, lets see what else emerges beyond MCAS.

Boeing's problem is investigations, some of which are still ongoing, have identified four separate sets of milestones. MCAS rectification, other MAX issues, other 737 issues, and finally other models.

Boeing wants only the former addressed, the intention all along. Other airworthiness authorities want agreement / resolution of the other three categories while MAX bargaining power exists.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:36 pm

morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The inverse would be to re-qualify everything from scratch which is something no one suggests, unless they want airliners to cost huge amounts of money

We already know that Boeing and the FAA puts cost above safety.

Revelation wrote:
Actually what I wrote about back porting changes to the NG would be a big inconvenience for the blessed mother Boeing.

Since you mention it, IMO your lack of concern about JT passengers is pretty revealing.


Boeing hardly needs the feeble help of JT to make the 737MAX a deathtrap.

You talk about concerns for JT passengers. I talk about concern for all 737MAX. passengers.

The thinks I talk about are identified as main contributor to the crash.

You want to talk about the peripheral contributor to the crash, to point away from the main points.

Revelation wrote:
Of course not, exemptions are considered on a per-model basis.


Exactly the MAX is a new model, so it needs the consideration. You just want that people do not check up on exemptions with a new model.


You could save yourself a lot of typing each time by just typing "Boeing is Evil and deserve to burn, everything else is irrelevant in the Aviation industry and we will never have another crash as long as Boeing is shutdown"


I know that nothing matters for you, but defending Boeing. You can not argue. You can only obfuscate and try to point away from Boeing.

And very simple, yes I think in regards to the 737MAX, Boeing is exactly that, criminal negligent, with your words evil.
If the USA criminal system will prove that is another question. The justice system in the USA have not a good record in regards to going after white collar crime.
 
majano
Posts: 280
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:42 pm

Revelation wrote:
Edit: fix first quote...

majano wrote:
So are you now rendering events for Boeing? I have not seen any Boeing communication claiming this "on schedule but with a few weeks of slippage", unless I have missed it.

And you won't, but those of us who have worked for large corporations before have a better understanding of what the date actually means.


Working for big corporations is quiet prevalent, so you may be surprised to learn that a few others on this board have done so too.

It is common cause that Boeing's revised target of delivering the software to regulators was September. When one user questioned your choice of words about the missed target, you claimed that the target was the most optimistic rendering of events, designed to keep pressure on people in the trenches. If we go with your theory, why would Boeing's top echelons release all that pressure by condoning the missed target with language such as you used?

Therefore I ask, as I assume user scbriml was also doing, if not for PR or "feel good" purposes, why tout this non-existent "on schedule but with a few weeks of slippage"?

My thanks to user Polot for being civil with his explanation.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:45 pm

morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

In the past so has JT, Indonesia, ET, Ethiopia, EASA, etc., etc. Your point? What does that have to do with re-qualification?


It would make sense to install EICAS into the MAX. Already done in the P-8 so Boeing has experience with doing that.
It would make sense to fix the manual trim wheel, hardly something that is outside the competence of Boeing.
I can keep on with all the complaints of the various certification authorities that have been here discussed before.

The above will cost money, that is why Boeing is dragging its feet and plays chicken with the regulators, daring them to not certify the bare minimum Boeing is prepared to do.

Please point to where EASA has to your knowledge accepted safety related corner cutting, because it would cost the aircraft producer more money to do it the right way.
Your argument that it is allowed for Boeing to cut corners, because everybody does it, does not hold water.


Is the A320 NEO certified to the latest standards and has been fully updated for every new standard that has come into existence since initial certification in the 1980's? If not you better ground that as well.


I bet you, that you find no point, where the A320 family does not fulfill current regulation and rules. No exemptions in place.

Furthermore, you will find that all of the crashes, accidents and near accidents that of course happens with Airbus frames, have led to changes on the Airbus frames according to the findings of the accident investigation agencies, if something was found deficient on the frame.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:46 pm

BEG2IAH wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
We already know that Boeing and the FAA puts cost above safety.


In the past so has JT, Indonesia, ET, Ethiopia, EASA, etc., etc. Your point? What does that have to do with re-qualification?


When you read some of the posts here you would think this is a website with the biggest fan-base of aviation haters. These two crashes of B737 MAX are not the first ones in aviation history, not the last ones (not speaking of the type, i.e., MAX) and the industry should and will learn from everything that went wrong. I would love to see a discussion of MAX back-to-flight challenges instead of rehashing the same arguments over and over again. The horse has long been dead, stop kicking it. It looks like the FAA and EASA are closer to recertifying the plane than keeping it grounded and that's exciting news at least for me.

Can we talk about Boeing/FAA/EASA test flights that are upcoming?

Do we know anything about those flights? Information release is very limited. FAA boss mentioned that they got software. As a formal submission for certification? For general review? Request second opinion of work progress? No clear answer.
EASA asked specifically for a clos-tostall flight with MCAS off, and we heard nothing from Boeing.
Hard to talk about black cat in a dark room...
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
Sorry but of course almost every schedule I've seen is the most optimistic rendering of events, designed to keep the pressure on the people in the trenches.


That works up till the point that shortcuts are taken to try and expedite the work - with the result that quality suffers - and later on due to the inevitable rework because of the shortcomings of the shortcuts - schedule suffers too.

If project managers think they are being clever by doing that - the only thing they are doing is making things worse and they'd be safer seeking alternative employment.
 
BEG2IAH
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:57 pm

I guess there was a lot of speculation (i.e., black cats in dark rooms) after the crashes. That didn't stop A.net from wild-guessing what's next to come...
Last edited by BEG2IAH on Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Flying at the cruising altitude is (mostly) boring. I wish all flights were nothing but endless take offs and landings every 10 minutes or so.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:58 pm

Is there a timeline out for when the flights are to be carried out?


Mr. Ky, head of EASA, has said EASA has four test flights scheduled from mid December if things go as planned.
Not sure myself whether these are actual flight tests or maybe engineering sim tests on the ground or a combination?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:02 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

It would make sense to install EICAS into the MAX. Already done in the P-8 so Boeing has experience with doing that.
It would make sense to fix the manual trim wheel, hardly something that is outside the competence of Boeing.
I can keep on with all the complaints of the various certification authorities that have been here discussed before.

The above will cost money, that is why Boeing is dragging its feet and plays chicken with the regulators, daring them to not certify the bare minimum Boeing is prepared to do.

Please point to where EASA has to your knowledge accepted safety related corner cutting, because it would cost the aircraft producer more money to do it the right way.
Your argument that it is allowed for Boeing to cut corners, because everybody does it, does not hold water.


Is the A320 NEO certified to the latest standards and has been fully updated for every new standard that has come into existence since initial certification in the 1980's? If not you better ground that as well.


I bet you, that you find no point, where the A320 family does not fulfill current regulation and rules. No exemptions in place.

Furthermore, you will find that all of the crashes, accidents and near accidents that of course happens with Airbus frames, have led to changes on the Airbus frames according to the findings of the accident investigation agencies, if something was found deficient on the frame.


So you are saying the A320 has been updated and every existing air frame flying has been updated to comply with all existing regulations put into place since first certification back in 1988?
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:12 pm

morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Is the A320 NEO certified to the latest standards and has been fully updated for every new standard that has come into existence since initial certification in the 1980's? If not you better ground that as well.


I bet you, that you find no point, where the A320 family does not fulfill current regulation and rules. No exemptions in place.

Furthermore, you will find that all of the crashes, accidents and near accidents that of course happens with Airbus frames, have led to changes on the Airbus frames according to the findings of the accident investigation agencies, if something was found deficient on the frame.


So you are saying the A320 has been updated and every existing air frame flying has been updated to comply with all existing regulations put into place since first certification back in 1988?


I wonder if the A330 now doesn't suspend the stall warning if the speed drops below 60 kts as it did on AF447? After all, that's a warning item that led to crew confusion. Similar to the cited lack of EICAS on the 737. I would argue perhaps worse.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:27 pm

I am not expecting that to have changed.
It stopped because there is not enough airflow to measure the speed below 60 kts. As there is no valid measurement possible no warning is triggered at that low speed. If the speed rises, it can be measured and some actual stall warning can be given based on values and not on assumptions.
Last edited by Noshow on Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:29 pm

BEG2IAH wrote:
I guess there was a lot of speculation (i.e., black cats in dark rooms) after the crashes. That didn't stop A.net from wild-guessing what's next to come...


I'm afraid a lot of wild guessing proved not so wild after all.

E.g. the Chinese and EASA, they didn't wait for official investigation reports as Boeing/FAA wanted.

The official LionAir crash investigation report just came out last week.

It's a thin line between meticulousness, waiting for hard facts and stalling the investigation process, endangering people.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:04 pm

asdf wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Alfons wrote:

because they want to make it sure that it's also certifiable by regulators which are not bought by them.

.... and one of the things they did was to run a test on what would happen if by chance there were 5 specific radiation induced bit flips in the flight computer. .


no one is expecting 5 bits to flip

as i had understood this whole "bit flip" thing is a more or less abstract probability calculation and its required in the regulations

There a peoples working all there time on that kind of questions: https://www.radecs2019.org/index.php
And there are a lot of tests in all aspects: https://www.faa.gov/aircraft/air_cert/design_approvals/air_software/media/TC-15-62.pdf
Search for "MBU" in the above document.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:50 pm

Chemist wrote:
morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

I bet you, that you find no point, where the A320 family does not fulfill current regulation and rules. No exemptions in place.

Furthermore, you will find that all of the crashes, accidents and near accidents that of course happens with Airbus frames, have led to changes on the Airbus frames according to the findings of the accident investigation agencies, if something was found deficient on the frame.


So you are saying the A320 has been updated and every existing air frame flying has been updated to comply with all existing regulations put into place since first certification back in 1988?


I wonder if the A330 now doesn't suspend the stall warning if the speed drops below 60 kts as it did on AF447? After all, that's a warning item that led to crew confusion. Similar to the cited lack of EICAS on the 737. I would argue perhaps worse.


It does still suspend the stall warning, because no measurement is possible below that speed. If you have slowed the frame to 60 kn, than you have already stalled the frame and not reacted to the stall warning.

But a change was done to how the stall warning is displayed and how prominent. Now it is both aural and visual. You do not only get the stall stall stall warning, but it is also displayed prominently on the screen.

No A330/340 is fitted with the pilot tubes any longer, that failed on AF447.

The other thing what has been done, is repeated mandatory training for the encountered situation on a simulator for all A330/340 pilots.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:54 pm

morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Is the A320 NEO certified to the latest standards and has been fully updated for every new standard that has come into existence since initial certification in the 1980's? If not you better ground that as well.


I bet you, that you find no point, where the A320 family does not fulfill current regulation and rules. No exemptions in place.

Furthermore, you will find that all of the crashes, accidents and near accidents that of course happens with Airbus frames, have led to changes on the Airbus frames according to the findings of the accident investigation agencies, if something was found deficient on the frame.


So you are saying the A320 has been updated and every existing air frame flying has been updated to comply with all existing regulations put into place since first certification back in 1988?


Yes I do. There are constant upgrades to the flight computer programs. A lot of things you can fix with a full blown FBW. (because Boeing seems to be using word FBW outside its normal use, I add the full blown)
 
Saintor
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:16 am

mjoelnir wrote:

The other thing what has been done, is repeated mandatory training for the encountered situation on a simulator for all A330/340 pilots.


"the encountered situations" such as uncertain air speed were already known and documented, so it was basically a reminder exercise for lacking pilots. Same should have done in Q2 2019 and all those birds should be flying again right now. There is nothing worse with the 737 MAX than the 1980-90s 737 with the equivalent rudder issues.
 
9w748capt
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:42 am

MSPNWA wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
We already know that Boeing and the FAA puts cost above safety.


In the past so has JT, Indonesia, ET, Ethiopia, EASA, etc., etc. Your point? What does that have to do with re-qualification?


It's one thing for JT or ET to crash an otherwise airworthy plane. That's totally different than what's happened with the max. The max is not currently an airworthy plane and seems months away from being so. But folks here have dug in at this point and those that will blame JT/ET will do so no matter what, no matter how culpable Boeing is.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:30 am

mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

I bet you, that you find no point, where the A320 family does not fulfill current regulation and rules. No exemptions in place.

Furthermore, you will find that all of the crashes, accidents and near accidents that of course happens with Airbus frames, have led to changes on the Airbus frames according to the findings of the accident investigation agencies, if something was found deficient on the frame.


So you are saying the A320 has been updated and every existing air frame flying has been updated to comply with all existing regulations put into place since first certification back in 1988?


Yes I do. There are constant upgrades to the flight computer programs. A lot of things you can fix with a full blown FBW. (because Boeing seems to be using word FBW outside its normal use, I add the full blown)


Yes FBW would make the control certification basis being changed a lot easier (but doesn't mean that if the A320 was put through certification as a brand new design today it would not have to be modified) but what the additional structural requirements that did not exist in 1988? Your saying Airbus foresaw all the new regulation in the past 32 years and it's design is fully compliant and that if they made any structural changes they modified the in-service fleet as well?

I call BS on that.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:50 am

morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:

So you are saying the A320 has been updated and every existing air frame flying has been updated to comply with all existing regulations put into place since first certification back in 1988?


Yes I do. There are constant upgrades to the flight computer programs. A lot of things you can fix with a full blown FBW. (because Boeing seems to be using word FBW outside its normal use, I add the full blown)


Yes FBW would make the control certification basis being changed a lot easier (but doesn't mean that if the A320 was put through certification as a brand new design today it would not have to be modified) but what the additional structural requirements that did not exist in 1988? Your saying Airbus foresaw all the new regulation in the past 32 years and it's design is fully compliant and that if they made any structural changes they modified the in-service fleet as well?

I call BS on that.


You try where the hill is steepest. No there have not been structural changes to the in service fleet, but in a very limited way. There is also mostly no reason for it, because for example MTOW increase has been done for new frames and tested before being certified. The two structural change done for the in service fleet I know off, is one for a limited number of frames, changes to the wing, to be able to add the sharklets. The other are changes to the structure to increase the number of cycles and hours they were able to be used.

But that actually has about nothing to do with being compliant to regulations without needing exemptions, that includes structural requirements.

So you can call your BS as much as you like, just a sure sign that you have run out of arguments.

But as always your aim is mainly to obfuscate and divert from the really dreadful design Boeing came up with for the 737MAX.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:19 am

BEG2IAH wrote:

Can we talk about Boeing/FAA/EASA test flights that are upcoming?


Why not start a Max UNgrounding thread? All of you who are pilots, stewardesses, mechanics, etc whose jobs depend on the Max RTS can have uninterrupted discourse there. Simple.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
benbeny
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:30 am

sgrow787 wrote:
BEG2IAH wrote:

Can we talk about Boeing/FAA/EASA test flights that are upcoming?


Why not start a Max UNgrounding thread? All of you who are pilots, stewardesses, mechanics, etc whose jobs depend on the Max RTS can have uninterrupted discourse there. Simple.

Because we're not sure yet that ungrounding is happening yet
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:57 am

benbeny wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
BEG2IAH wrote:

Can we talk about Boeing/FAA/EASA test flights that are upcoming?


Why not start a Max UNgrounding thread? All of you who are pilots, stewardesses, mechanics, etc whose jobs depend on the Max RTS can have uninterrupted discourse there. Simple.

Because we're not sure yet that ungrounding is happening yet


Well it's certainly getting close. The political pressure is there, judging from the way the hearings went, specifically the lack of detailed questions regarding the certification. The logistics are being worked out. And enough people keep asking when it's going to happen.

At least we could have a surrogate thread started for when it does happen. Add discussion why it's not happening as well.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:28 am

sgrow787 wrote:
Well it's certainly getting close. The political pressure is there, judging from the way the hearings went, specifically the lack of detailed questions regarding the certification. The logistics are being worked out. And enough people keep asking when it's going to happen.

Anyone give any thought to the fact that since a criminal investigation is still ongoing, revealing too much details in a public hearing will taint jury pools?
 
SanDiegoLover
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:11 am

kalvado wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Story of 787 launch...

OK, but still far from a "global aviation design engineer".

I would argue that Boeing didn't have a fully successful project in more than a decade, since 773ER and its derivatives.
So, out of latest Boeing projects:
787 - lemon.
748 - who cares
737 MAX - lemon
777X - TBD.
Pretty grim picture, heh.

Other flops: Airbus did funny with 380, Bomabdier struggled with C-series to total exhaustion. Embraer sails relatively smooth...


Exactly! Boeing is simply exhibiting the usual in American manufacturing at a Fortune 500 level. Refuse to invest in your R&D (wasteful), hire the cheapest workers globally, and just lie, lie, lie. Investors are stupid. Just look thru the history here at posters who admit owning Boeing stocks when they attacked CaptainX, and then others over the MAX. Boeing can’t afford to launch a new model, or must force labor and partners to fund it, yet end up losing $35 billion in deferred costs on the 787 and soon a similar amount on the Maxtard / MCAS disaster, yet upper management never loses...they always get paid. Boeing is going to be lucky to avoid bankruptcy over this latest disaster.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:19 am

SanDiegoLover wrote:
Exactly! Boeing is simply exhibiting the usual in American manufacturing at a Fortune 500 level. Refuse to invest in your R&D (wasteful), hire the cheapest workers globally, and just lie, lie, lie. Investors are stupid. Just look thru the history here at posters who admit owning Boeing stocks when they attacked CaptainX, and then others over the MAX. Boeing can’t afford to launch a new model, or must force labor and partners to fund it, yet end up losing $35 billion in deferred costs on the 787 and soon a similar amount on the Maxtard / MCAS disaster, yet upper management never loses...they always get paid. Boeing is going to be lucky to avoid bankruptcy over this latest disaster.

Well Chpt.11 would wipe out the investors who are ultimately responsible for the board implementing their greed strategy, there would be no shortage of new investors lining up 10 deep to refloat Boeing, and since Wall Street would be fully behind them, do you really expect the overriding theme to change, it is as you say an American thing...I would not expect the Judge and or the US government to allow Boeing to be swallowed up by foreign investors.
So cheaper to reform the current company, any new project that they launch now will be investigated, probed, independently reviewed......etc etc etc
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:24 am

mjoelnir wrote:
I bet you, that you find no point, where the A320 family does not fulfill current regulation and rules. No exemptions in place.

Furthermore, you will find that all of the crashes, accidents and near accidents that of course happens with Airbus frames, have led to changes on the Airbus frames according to the findings of the accident investigation agencies, if something was found deficient on the frame.


Does that include the 16G seat requirement? I'm sure the seats being installed meet the requirement, but as I understand, it also affected the floor design. I seem to recall weight growth of the 777 during development being tied to that, although I can't find a source at moment.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:49 am

Revelation wrote:
Since you mention it, IMO your lack of concern about JT passengers is pretty revealing.

JT crash rate is quite close to the global average. In other words, their passengers are transported about as safe as with many other airlines.
Last edited by rheinwaldner on Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:08 am

MSPNWA wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
We already know that Boeing and the FAA puts cost above safety.


In the past so has JT, Indonesia, ET, Ethiopia, EASA, etc., etc. Your point?

The difference is the impact on safety: Boeing and the FAA cutting cost have resulted in a safety record of the MAX which is magnitudes of orders worse than usual after the first two (three soon) years of operation.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:24 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
JT crash rate is quite close to the global average. In other words, their passengers are transported about as safe as with many other airlines.


Source? And what is it, crash rate or deaths?

rheinwaldner wrote:
The difference is the impact on safety: Boeing and the FAA cutting cost have resulted in a safety record of the MAX which is magnitudes of orders worse than usual after the first two (three soon) years of operation.


No, the impact is that people have died due to these parties and many more "putting cost above safety". Picking one out of the crowd isn't promoting safety. It's promoting politics and the degradation of aviation safety.

I'm not surprised that was I said months ago still rings true. Safety is not just a statistic. Case in point is your claim that JT passengers are as safe as anyone else, even though we have so much evidence and stats saying otherwise.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:14 am

MSPNWA wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
JT crash rate is quite close to the global average. In other words, their passengers are transported about as safe as with many other airlines.


Source? And what is it, crash rate or deaths?

rheinwaldner wrote:
The difference is the impact on safety: Boeing and the FAA cutting cost have resulted in a safety record of the MAX which is magnitudes of orders worse than usual after the first two (three soon) years of operation.


No, the impact is that people have died due to these parties and many more "putting cost above safety". Picking one out of the crowd isn't promoting safety. It's promoting politics and the degradation of aviation safety.

I'm not surprised that was I said months ago still rings true. Safety is not just a statistic. Case in point is your claim that JT passengers are as safe as anyone else, even though we have so much evidence and stats saying otherwise.


Once again somebody who tries to to point away from the primary cause of the accident. The primary cause of the Lion Air crash is the dangerous, according to JATR not certifiably, design of the 737MAX, done by Boeing and accepted by the FAA:

Picking out Boeings dangerous design is exactly promoting safety, because non of the other factors have but a peripheral influence.

This endless promotion of talking about contributing causes to avoid talking about the primary cause gets tiring.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:16 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
I bet you, that you find no point, where the A320 family does not fulfill current regulation and rules. No exemptions in place.

Furthermore, you will find that all of the crashes, accidents and near accidents that of course happens with Airbus frames, have led to changes on the Airbus frames according to the findings of the accident investigation agencies, if something was found deficient on the frame.


Does that include the 16G seat requirement? I'm sure the seats being installed meet the requirement, but as I understand, it also affected the floor design. I seem to recall weight growth of the 777 during development being tied to that, although I can't find a source at moment.


AFAIK the A320 family fulfills the 16 G seat requirement in regards to the floor design and AFAIK do the 757/767.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:07 am

MSPNWA wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
JT crash rate is quite close to the global average. In other words, their passengers are transported about as safe as with many other airlines.


Source? And what is it, crash rate or deaths?

Fatal crash rate. It was mentioned earlier in this thread.

MSPNWA wrote:
Picking one out of the crowd isn't promoting safety. It's promoting politics and the degradation of aviation safety.

How wrong you are. The MAX was so fatally flawed, that there is an unseen amount of leverage to promote safety by fixing the MAX alone. In fact, long before you need to look at anything else, you just can concentrate on the MAX and aviation safety will improve in spades. If the crash rate of the MAX would be applied to the whole 737 family roughly every seventh 737 would have crashed.

Besides that, the MAX is on topic and the rest of your list not.

MSPNWA wrote:
Safety is not just a statistic.

Statistics show you where to put the focus. Which is the MAX, Boeing and the FAA. Boeing demonstrated more third world mentality (how some are calling it) designing the MAX than any third world operator flying the MAX. Much more. As evidenced by the Lion Air crash report if you look at it without bias and the unprecedented grounding.

MSPNWA wrote:
It's promoting politics and the degradation of aviation safety.

I'm not surprised that was I said months ago still rings true. Safety is not just a statistic. Case in point is your claim that JT passengers are as safe as anyone else, even though we have so much evidence and stats saying otherwise.

You know what is politics? Not recognizing the big issue (which is putting nicely, what you really are doing, which is totally avoiding the big issue) and pushing the some secondary contributions with much fanfare.

You know, we can calculate the failure rates of all the components, which contribute to the average global crash rate. Doing that, you can see, that there is nearly no leverage to global aviation safety by touching any of the topics you mentioned. Fixing the MAX on the other hand gives you a leverage, which is mangitudes of an order higher.

Looking soberly at the statistics, you would see, that overall aviation safety is better than ever and has ever been improving (primarily due to improved pilot proficiency).
Last edited by rheinwaldner on Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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hiflyeras
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:07 am

sgrow787 wrote:
BEG2IAH wrote:

Can we talk about Boeing/FAA/EASA test flights that are upcoming?


Why not start a Max UNgrounding thread? All of you who are pilots, stewardesses, mechanics, etc whose jobs depend on the Max RTS can have uninterrupted discourse there. Simple.


Stewardesses? What are you...like 100 years old?
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:27 am

Should Southwest have set up a second pilot pool for the 737 Classic/NG until the MAX teething problems are resolved?
 
bgm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:30 am

MSPNWA wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
JT crash rate is quite close to the global average. In other words, their passengers are transported about as safe as with many other airlines.


Source? And what is it, crash rate or deaths?

rheinwaldner wrote:
The difference is the impact on safety: Boeing and the FAA cutting cost have resulted in a safety record of the MAX which is magnitudes of orders worse than usual after the first two (three soon) years of operation.


No, the impact is that people have died due to these parties and many more "putting cost above safety". Picking one out of the crowd isn't promoting safety. It's promoting politics and the degradation of aviation safety.

I'm not surprised that was I said months ago still rings true. Safety is not just a statistic. Case in point is your claim that JT passengers are as safe as anyone else, even though we have so much evidence and stats saying otherwise.


You seem to have quite a talent for ignoring the elephant in the room.
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:44 am

benbeny wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
BEG2IAH wrote:
Can we talk about Boeing/FAA/EASA test flights that are upcoming?

Why not start a Max UNgrounding thread? All of you who are pilots, stewardesses, mechanics, etc whose jobs depend on the Max RTS can have uninterrupted discourse there. Simple.

Because we're not sure yet that ungrounding is happening yet


the MAX will fly again
but they need to fix the cause and not the effects

they have to fix the aerodynamic problems that lead to the up pitching
with .... what do i know ..... vortex generators or other assembly changes ... with slightly smaller engines ... somehow

probably they will not reach the economy that was planned
but the 737 MAX will fly
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:05 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

Yes I do. There are constant upgrades to the flight computer programs. A lot of things you can fix with a full blown FBW. (because Boeing seems to be using word FBW outside its normal use, I add the full blown)


Yes FBW would make the control certification basis being changed a lot easier (but doesn't mean that if the A320 was put through certification as a brand new design today it would not have to be modified) but what the additional structural requirements that did not exist in 1988? Your saying Airbus foresaw all the new regulation in the past 32 years and it's design is fully compliant and that if they made any structural changes they modified the in-service fleet as well?

I call BS on that.


You try where the hill is steepest. No there have not been structural changes to the in service fleet, but in a very limited way. There is also mostly no reason for it, because for example MTOW increase has been done for new frames and tested before being certified. The two structural change done for the in service fleet I know off, is one for a limited number of frames, changes to the wing, to be able to add the sharklets. The other are changes to the structure to increase the number of cycles and hours they were able to be used.

But that actually has about nothing to do with being compliant to regulations without needing exemptions, that includes structural requirements.

So you can call your BS as much as you like, just a sure sign that you have run out of arguments.

But as always your aim is mainly to obfuscate and divert from the really dreadful design Boeing came up with for the 737MAX.


You were the one suggesting that the MAX not be allowed back into the air before it could meet all current regulations. Not many airframes if any could meet that standard.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:35 pm

This thread has totally gone around the bend.

It looks like the MAX is about to get Parole after being reformed and some just can't accept that.

I expect that the closer we get to actual flight the Stats will be flying with predictions of 1 in 7 crashing on the first day.

You can't extrapolate MAX 1.0 crash stats to MAX 2.0. It is not the same airplane.

Unfortunately average Pilot Competency is still = Pre-MAX

Hopefully maintenance doesn't make any mistakes in the future and Pilots are never forced to fly a plane in a degraded state again ever.
 
bgm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:42 pm

morrisond wrote:
Pilots are never forced to fly a plane in a degraded state again ever.


And hopefully Boeing doesn't make a degraded plane again ever.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:32 pm

bgm wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Pilots are never forced to fly a plane in a degraded state again ever.


And hopefully Boeing doesn't make a degraded plane again ever.


Or any other manufacturer.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:33 pm

Muilenburg Forgoing Bonus

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/boeing- ... -2019.html

From the article:

"Lawmakers railed against Muilenburg last week over his compensation and refusal to step down over the crisis. The two days of hearings were tough for Muilenburg, Calhoun said. The night after the first hearing, Muilenburg listened to the victims’ families."

“He listened for several hours to every story, every story the victims’ families presented to him. Changed him for life,” Calhoun said.


If he stays at Boeing hopefully that has some effect on him (listening to the Victims Families) - I doubt the money will make much of a difference.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:49 pm

morrisond wrote:
You can't extrapolate MAX 1.0 crash stats to MAX 2.0. It is not the same airplane.

Nobody is doing that. I hope and assume that the MAX2 will be fine. When I am talking in past and present tense about the MAX safety record, I obviously don't mean the future safety record of the MAX.

morrisond wrote:
Unfortunately average Pilot Competency is still = Pre-MAX

This is how the average pilot competency has improved recently:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ped%29.png

Image

No big deal.

morrisond wrote:
Hopefully maintenance doesn't make any mistakes in the future and Pilots are never forced to fly a plane in a degraded state again ever.

This is a red herring. Maintenance had made mistakes before the MAX. But the impact on the accident rate was low.

Pilots also had to fly degraded planes all the times. Surviability was generally acceptable.

The MAX on the other hand was not degraded but broken. It has created two times within months one of the arguably most confusing and hostile enviroment pilots ever faced. I challenge anybody to point us to other incidents, that were as confusing and had a better outcome. The criteria to meet is: 3 cockpit alarms as false positives and no alarm of the system really going havoc.
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:00 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
This is how the average pilot competency has improved recently:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ped%29.png

Image

No big deal.


That chart does nothing to prove an increase in Pilot competency. The vast majority or all of it can be explained by improvements in design and more reliable airplanes. It could have been even lower with Improved Pilot competency or even effectively zero. It could still go down like that with Decreasing Pilot Competency.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:02 pm

morrisond wrote:
It looks like the MAX is about to get Parole after being reformed and some just can't accept that.

Even EU is on board:

Boeing’s (BA.N) grounded 737 MAX airliner is likely to return to service in Europe during the first quarter of 2020, the head of the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) said on Monday.

Yet:

European experts traveled to Rockwell Collins facilities in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, last week to begin an audit of a “reasonably final” software version, the EASA chief told Reuters on the sidelines of the agency’s annual safety conference in Helsinki. Rockwell Collins, a unit of United Technologies (UTX.N), developed the MAX flight control software with Boeing.

“There has been a lot of work done on the design of the software,” Ky said. But he added: “We think there is still some work to be done.”

Hope our EU cultural brethren enjoyed the cultural delights of Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

The European watchdog hopes to complete a detailed software review by the end of this month, followed by December flight tests “if everything goes well”, he added.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1XE1U1

morrisond wrote:
Muilenburg Forgoing Bonus

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/boeing- ... -2019.html

From the article:

"Lawmakers railed against Muilenburg last week over his compensation and refusal to step down over the crisis. The two days of hearings were tough for Muilenburg, Calhoun said. The night after the first hearing, Muilenburg listened to the victims’ families."

“He listened for several hours to every story, every story the victims’ families presented to him. Changed him for life,” Calhoun said.

If he stays at Boeing hopefully that has some effect on him (listening to the Victims Families) - I doubt the money will make much of a difference.

The cynic in me will point out that the exact quote is that he offered to forego the bonus, it doesn't say the BoD accepted the offer.

The gesture of giving that money to the victim's family seems so obvious to me that I'm surprised he didn't do so.

Maybe they do not want to establish a precedent.
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:03 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
morrisond wrote:
You can't extrapolate MAX 1.0 crash stats to MAX 2.0. It is not the same airplane.

Nobody is doing that. I hope and assume that the MAX2 will be fine. When I am talking in past and present tense about the MAX safety record, I obviously don't mean the future safety record of the MAX.



OK - that would a new one though - you always seem to be on here Implying the MAX will continue at the same crash rate. BTW as no MAX 1.0's have flown for some months in Commercial Service (and presumably never will again) it's all past tense now.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
From the article:

"Lawmakers railed against Muilenburg last week over his compensation and refusal to step down over the crisis. The two days of hearings were tough for Muilenburg, Calhoun said. The night after the first hearing, Muilenburg listened to the victims’ families."

“He listened for several hours to every story, every story the victims’ families presented to him. Changed him for life,” Calhoun said.

If he stays at Boeing hopefully that has some effect on him (listening to the Victims Families) - I doubt the money will make much of a difference.
The cynic in me will point out that the exact quote is that he offered to forego the bonus, it doesn't say the BoD accepted the offer.

The gesture of giving that money to the victim's family seems so obvious to me that I'm surprised he didn't do so.

Maybe they do not want to establish a precedent.


I missed that he didn't accept the offer in the article. However I just heard them live on CNBC (I have it going all day in my office) that he has foregone the bonus. The offer was accepted by the board.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:43 pm

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... ar-AAJR4gn

While this could logically go in the production thread, I think it deserves a place here. We have been hearing about how much hurt the airlines were having with all of their expected shiny new MAXs grounded. Now they are going to have to cope with about 70 of those shiny trinkets a month crowding into their flight operations. FOX news also has an article on this.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:51 pm

morrisond wrote:
This thread has totally gone around the bend.

I wonder why.

morrisond wrote:
Unfortunately average Pilot Competency is still = Pre-MAX

10,000+ 737s apparently seems to be fine with incompetent pilots.

morrisond wrote:
Hopefully, maintenance doesn't make any mistakes in the future and Pilots are never forced to fly a plane in a degraded state again ever.

If the flight global report is true, Xtra didn't document anything over 10 year period and FAA happily settled with them. Yet here were are complaining about an undocumented process which BAT didn't follow.

BTW, did Xtra recall all the components it refurbished, or at least notify the airlines?
Last edited by dtw2hyd on Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:00 pm

morrisond wrote:
OK - that would a new one though - you always seem to be on here Implying the MAX will continue at the same crash rate. BTW as no MAX 1.0's have flown for some months in Commercial Service (and presumably never will again) it's all past tense now.

No, as long as no commercial ops are taking place (= which includes present time and probably even some months in the future) the crash rate (~ one crash per 0.125 million flights) is frozen and you can not say that anything did improve. I would agree to reset the MAX crash rate the day, when MAX 2.0 will be flying with paying passengers.

In the end, it depends how you cut the populations. If you look just at the "MAX", the crash rate up to now is very bad and will only after many years finally converge with the industry average.

If you like to consider the MAX 2.0 as separate population on the other hand, you would have to accept, that the MAX 1.0 is also a separate population. And for that population, the current MAX safety record would be the final verdict forever. Resulting from that, the MAX 1.0 would have to be considered as the unsafest plane since a long time and probably forever.
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