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FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:00 pm

According to BBC (Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-50684155?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5df0d977fb9d240676c46cf8%26TUI%20takes%20%E2%82%AC293m%20hit%20from%20Boeing%20jet%20grounding%262019-12-11T12%3A37%3A11.165Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:f05bf817-6aec-4753-be89-a749d1067696&pinned_post_asset_id=5df0d977fb9d240676c46cf8&pinned_post_type=share):

The grounding of the MAX costs TUI €293m.

Tui also warned of a further €130m (£110m) impact from the grounding - but said it could climb to €270m (£228m) if the aircraft does not return to service by the end of April.


So in total it will be €432m at least but could be up to €563m. TUI has 9 MAX8 parked. I do not know how many should have been delivered since the grounding.

So one parked MAX costs around €50m.
 
Oykie
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:03 pm

LondonAero wrote:
Sounds like there is still a lot of wood to chop...

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/12/11/f ... k-box.html



The FAA is under international and national pressure to get this certification right. It seems like they are taking their time to get it right. I am a bit surprised that they cannot give any timeline still. There should at least be a clear understanding of what needs to be done at this point.
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Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:30 pm

Oykie wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
Sounds like there is still a lot of wood to chop...

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/12/11/f ... k-box.html



The FAA is under international and national pressure to get this certification right. It seems like they are taking their time to get it right. I am a bit surprised that they cannot give any timeline still. There should at least be a clear understanding of what needs to be done at this point.


Is there a point where Boeing might pause production or scale it back until RTS is granted?

I assume the production line will pause over Boeing's traditional Christmas break.

I imagine Boeing has to be running out of places to store Max's
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:35 pm

Well, if Boeing wants to know additional details on what's holding up the FAA, announce a 20% production cut and the information will start flowing.
Nothing gets the water flowing in the swamp faster than the constituents being out of jobs with no idea when relief will arrive.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:37 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
Oykie wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
Sounds like there is still a lot of wood to chop...

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/12/11/f ... k-box.html



The FAA is under international and national pressure to get this certification right. It seems like they are taking their time to get it right. I am a bit surprised that they cannot give any timeline still. There should at least be a clear understanding of what needs to be done at this point.


Is there a point where Boeing might pause production or scale it back until RTS is granted?

I assume the production line will pause over Boeing's traditional Christmas break.

I imagine Boeing has to be running out of places to store Max's

As they can potentially fly the MAX to storage locations all over the country there's no shortage of places to store the planes. This will not be a reason to halt the production if needed, that will mainly have a financial reason.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:50 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
Is there a point where Boeing might pause production or scale it back until RTS is granted?

...

I imagine Boeing has to be running out of places to store Max's


Boeing did say they might have to pause production if the grounding lasted longer, but that was in the days of "early 4Q" for RTS. So we're already three months beyond that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/24/boeing- ... eturn.html
Boeing expects its troubled 737 Max jets to return to the skies by early in the fourth quarter but its CEO warned investors on Wednesday that it could further cut or suspend production of its bestselling planes altogether if delays get worse.
...
“Should our estimate of the anticipated return to service change, we might need to consider possible further rate reductions or other options including a temporary shutdown of the Max production,” Muilenburg said. The CEO later added that “a temporary shutdown of production line could be more efficient than a sustained lower production rate” because it could reduce storage requirements.


There are lots of places they can store planes, but they've probably used up most of the cheap or 'free' ones. So, yes as they continue to pump out 42 MAX a month, storage costs will quickly mount up.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:12 pm

VS11 wrote:
Boeing 737 Max Certification to Extend Into 2020, FAA Chief Says

From Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

"....Federal Aviation Administration chief Stephen Dickson said that the plane, which has been grounded worldwide since March, will not be certified to fly this year, dashing Boeing’s hopes of getting the popular family of planes back in the air in 2019.
“If you do the math, it’s going to extend into 2020,” Dickson told CNBC Wednesday before he is expected to testify before a congressional panel. “We’re going to do it diligently because safety is absolutely our priority with this airplane...”


Poor choice of words when he said that "safety is absolutely our priority with THIS airplane." He should have said all airplanes or something like that or just stopped with priority.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:15 pm

scbriml wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
Is there a point where Boeing might pause production or scale it back until RTS is granted?

...

I imagine Boeing has to be running out of places to store Max's


Boeing did say they might have to pause production if the grounding lasted longer, but that was in the days of "early 4Q" for RTS. So we're already three months beyond that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/24/boeing- ... eturn.html
Boeing expects its troubled 737 Max jets to return to the skies by early in the fourth quarter but its CEO warned investors on Wednesday that it could further cut or suspend production of its bestselling planes altogether if delays get worse.
...
“Should our estimate of the anticipated return to service change, we might need to consider possible further rate reductions or other options including a temporary shutdown of the Max production,” Muilenburg said. The CEO later added that “a temporary shutdown of production line could be more efficient than a sustained lower production rate” because it could reduce storage requirements.


There are lots of places they can store planes, but they've probably used up most of the cheap or 'free' ones. So, yes as they continue to pump out 42 MAX a month, storage costs will quickly mount up.

I disagree on the space issue. There are plenty of under-utilized former SAC bases willing to lease out spare runways/taxiways including "christmas tree" ready ramps that serve no real purpose in the modern era.

The real issue is that each 737 they build costs Boeing real money to build yet is bringing in no revenue. There's a limit to how long a business can do such a thing and IMO we've reached the point where the calculated gamble has gone bust.

The secondary issue is the CEO has told his board the "early Q4" date with a strong degree of conviction, despite his disclaimers that you've quoted above.

We even had the leaks from Boeing suggesting FAA would let them deliver 737s this year despite the lack of approved pilot training, yet now the suggestions are quite opposite, with FAA insisting on removing Boeing's delegated authority to inspect the aircraft returning to service and Dickson saying approval won't be this year and Muilenburg saying there will be a global approval thus the idea of US-only early approval appears to be dead.

I don't see how Boeing can consider running 737 production without any real idea of when RTS can occur. If it is a global approval, the world's most pessimistic regulator now controls the RTS date. Unless there is some unspoken agreement that this will happen relatively quickly then I think a MAX production shutdown is inevitable and the BoD almost certainly will run out of patience with Muilenberg.

The Q4 and end of year numbers were already going to look abysmal by Boeing standards, and now they don't have any tangible evidence of the crisis ending to put into the year end report. The stock will get savaged and the BoD will have to react, with Muilenberg the obvious fall guy.
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Blotto
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:42 pm

Revelation wrote:
The real issue is that each 737 they build costs Boeing real money to build yet is bringing in no revenue. There's a limit to how long a business can do such a thing and IMO we've reached the point where the calculated gamble has gone bust.


Can they afford to shutdown production? If they do so, the supply chain may not be so easy to restart. And skilled workers layed off due to the shutdown may not come back.
My guess is, that as long that BA has no doubt that the MAX will be ungrounded at some point, they keep on producing until they hit a brick wall at the end of free cash flow.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:45 pm

There's also the risk that delivering all these stored frames will simply become to big if the number increases even further. The cost of this challenge could easily spiral out of control and the risk that frames will not be taken up will only increase the longer it takes.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:04 pm

Blotto wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The real issue is that each 737 they build costs Boeing real money to build yet is bringing in no revenue. There's a limit to how long a business can do such a thing and IMO we've reached the point where the calculated gamble has gone bust.


Can they afford to shutdown production? If they do so, the supply chain may not be so easy to restart. And skilled workers layed off due to the shutdown may not come back.
My guess is, that as long that BA has no doubt that the MAX will be ungrounded at some point, they keep on producing until they hit a brick wall at the end of free cash flow.


I'm sure shutting down the line is the last thing Boeing wants to do, but seems another rate cut, to say 20 a month,
might be worth considering until they make a major dent in the undelivered Max inventory.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:07 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
There's also the risk that delivering all these stored frames will simply become to big if the number increases even further. The cost of this challenge could easily spiral out of control and the risk that frames will not be taken up will only increase the longer it takes.

I think it's not just about the cost of delivering the stored frames, it's also about the red ink on the balance sheet caused by spending all that money to buy all the parts and assemble them without getting any revenue. All the photos of stored MAXes I've seen have actual LEAP engines on the wings as opposed to concrete blocks. That costs real money to make happen.

There will be a point where the cost of producing all those aircraft and then retrieving them from storage and preparing them for delivery is just too big a sum.

As I wrote earlier, it's hard to make the argument to continue the current practice when you no longer can estimate RTS with a good degree of confidence.

Who knows, maybe Boeing has a good level of confidence in the global process, but it's hard for me to see how they would.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:08 pm

VS11 wrote:
“If you do the math, it’s going to extend into 2020...”


That could mean a year from now.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:19 pm

The big question is what is holding the FAA back.
The FAA sounds more and more pessimistic as time goes by.
It is also worth noting that Boeing fails to create any public or political pressure on the FAA to move faster.
Something smells very fishy. My gut feeling is that the FAA has found confirmation that they have been played by Boeing and that they have evidence that Boeing lied to them.
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:19 pm

scbriml wrote:
There are lots of places they can store planes, but they've probably used up most of the cheap or 'free' ones. So, yes as they continue to pump out 42 MAX a month, storage costs will quickly mount up.


And you know this how?
 
LondonAero
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:22 pm

I agree - it seems very strange that everything just keeps slipping and slipping - especially with so many engineers focused on this. The guy in charge of the software part of the fix today said they are still waiting on submissions from Boeing. How is that possible at this late stage??

seahawk wrote:
The big question is what is holding the FAA back.
The FAA sounds more and more pessimistic as time goes by.
It is also worth noting that Boeing fails to create any public or political pressure on the FAA to move faster.
Something smells very fishy. My gut feeling is that the FAA has found confirmation that they have been played by Boeing and that they have evidence that Boeing lied to them.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:31 pm

9Patch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
There are lots of places they can store planes, but they've probably used up most of the cheap or 'free' ones. So, yes as they continue to pump out 42 MAX a month, storage costs will quickly mount up.


And you know this how?


Is that a serious question? It's not rocket science. :?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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BEG2IAH
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:41 pm

LondonAero wrote:
I agree - it seems very strange that everything just keeps slipping and slipping - especially with so many engineers focused on this. The guy in charge of the software part of the fix today said they are still waiting on submissions from Boeing. How is that possible at this late stage??


You have a link or something? Was he talking about documentation, not the actual software?
Flying at the cruising altitude is (mostly) boring. I wish all flights were nothing but endless take offs and landings every 10 minutes or so.
 
LondonAero
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:43 pm

No - it was a statement made during live testimony today.

BEG2IAH wrote:
LondonAero wrote:
I agree - it seems very strange that everything just keeps slipping and slipping - especially with so many engineers focused on this. The guy in charge of the software part of the fix today said they are still waiting on submissions from Boeing. How is that possible at this late stage??


You have a link or something? Was he talking about documentation, not the actual software?
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:52 pm

:eyebrow:
scbriml wrote:
9Patch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
There are lots of places they can store planes, but they've probably used up most of the cheap or 'free' ones. So, yes as they continue to pump out 42 MAX a month, storage costs will quickly mount up.


And you know this how?


Is that a serious question? It's not rocket science. :?


Have you done a survey on the number of suitable places to store planes around the world and how many cheap or 'free' ones are left?

If so, please share the fruits of your research! :stretch:
Last edited by 9Patch on Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:55 pm

seahawk wrote:
The big question is what is holding the FAA back.
The FAA sounds more and more pessimistic as time goes by.
It is also worth noting that Boeing fails to create any public or political pressure on the FAA to move faster.
Something smells very fishy. My gut feeling is that the FAA has found confirmation that they have been played by Boeing and that they have evidence that Boeing lied to them.


I agree something smells fishy. One wonders if it’s political, or technical or a bit of both. It could be a domino effect, a major change unleashing a bunch of unintended consequences.

I’ve heard some insider information from Transport Canada that is very pessimistic. I can’t say if this is just personal opinion, or some sort of growing conclusion. I suspect it’s just one person’s opinion.

Beech
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:05 pm

seahawk wrote:
The big question is what is holding the FAA back.
The FAA sounds more and more pessimistic as time goes by.
It is also worth noting that Boeing fails to create any public or political pressure on the FAA to move faster.
Something smells very fishy. My gut feeling is that the FAA has found confirmation that they have been played by Boeing and that they have evidence that Boeing lied to them.

The FAA is the regulator, they just fined Boeing a couple millions dollars for the slat track issue, so if they have evidence that Boeing lied, holding Boeing to account is not a problem.

If they announce that the 737 MAX will not fly again or that it will be another year, guess who will be on the FAA case, not Boeing but every single politician in DC who is going to have constituents screaming when the thousands of vendors who supply Boeing parts for the MAX in their state start laying off staff and some potentially going out of business.

A question, if the FAA had announced in March 2019 that the MAX would be grounded for 12 months, do you think Boeing would only have reduced production to 42?
The string along theory here is that as long as the time line is moveable, Boeing will continue to pay all the vendors and continue to assemble and store the a/c, getting the stored a/c updated and delivered is now a major challenge in itself, especially since the FAA will now be certifying each frame, and since they do not have the staffing to man all the area's wher e frames are stored, the timeline to get them delivered has gone up.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:08 pm

beechnut wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The big question is what is holding the FAA back.
The FAA sounds more and more pessimistic as time goes by.
It is also worth noting that Boeing fails to create any public or political pressure on the FAA to move faster.
Something smells very fishy. My gut feeling is that the FAA has found confirmation that they have been played by Boeing and that they have evidence that Boeing lied to them.


I agree something smells fishy. One wonders if it’s political, or technical or a bit of both. It could be a domino effect, a major change unleashing a bunch of unintended consequences.

I’ve heard some insider information from Transport Canada that is very pessimistic. I can’t say if this is just personal opinion, or some sort of growing conclusion. I suspect it’s just one person’s opinion.

Beech


We're seeing the political " Kabuki Theatre" in action. Ironically, the longer the FAA and other authorities drags this approval process out,
whether it's technically warranted or not, the better they look.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:21 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
beechnut wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The big question is what is holding the FAA back.
The FAA sounds more and more pessimistic as time goes by.
It is also worth noting that Boeing fails to create any public or political pressure on the FAA to move faster.
Something smells very fishy. My gut feeling is that the FAA has found confirmation that they have been played by Boeing and that they have evidence that Boeing lied to them.


I agree something smells fishy. One wonders if it’s political, or technical or a bit of both. It could be a domino effect, a major change unleashing a bunch of unintended consequences.

I’ve heard some insider information from Transport Canada that is very pessimistic. I can’t say if this is just personal opinion, or some sort of growing conclusion. I suspect it’s just one person’s opinion.

Beech


We're seeing the political " Kabuki Theatre" in action. Ironically, the longer the FAA and other authorities drags this approval process out,
whether it's technically warranted or not, the better they look.


This is far more likely than the other explanation. The MAX was probably safe to unground with the MCAS software update from July. The FAA had to prove how tough they were being by insisting on the bit flip fix that was not likely to ever cause an issue. Now they must show that they are insisting on perfect and ultra detailed documentation to show that it isn't a rubber stamp approval. It's all about optics now.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:24 pm

Part 25 Airworthiness standards:
25.173 Static longitudinal stability.
(a) A pull must be required to obtain and maintain speeds below the specified trim speed, and a push must be required to obtain and maintain speeds above the specified trim speed.
(c) The average gradient of the stable slope of the stick force versus speed curve may not be less than 1 pound for each 6 knots.
25.175 Demonstration of static longitudinal stability. (b) Cruise. Static longitudinal stability must be shown in the cruise condition as follows:
(1) With the landing gear retracted at high speed, the stick force curve must have a stable slope at all speeds
25.201 Stall demonstration.
(a) Stalls must be shown in straight flight and in 30 degree banked turns
(1) Starting at a speed sufficiently above the stalling speed to ensure that a steady rate of speed reduction can be established, apply the longitudinal control so that the speed reduction does not exceed one knot per second until the airplane is stalled.
(2) In addition, for turning flight stalls, apply the longitudinal control to achieve airspeed deceleration rates up to 3 knots per second.

Learn it, know it, live it.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:29 pm

So in the country of business is business, the belief is that the shareholders / investors are going to allow Boeing to continue to take a financial hit without spreading the pain around?
One of the reasons why the financial aspect is not a higher concern is because of all the share buy backs and program accounting, but guess what, the investors will always get their's even if that means cancelling programs, reducing staff, benefits, etc etc. the only way the investors get their comeuppance is via Chpt.11, and so far, no one seems to think that is in the cards.
Let's see if Boeing pulls a xmas surprise and announce a major production cut heading into the xmas break, the topic at many dinner tables would be very interesting.
Last edited by par13del on Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:31 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:30 pm

Revelation wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
There's also the risk that delivering all these stored frames will simply become to big if the number increases even further. The cost of this challenge could easily spiral out of control and the risk that frames will not be taken up will only increase the longer it takes.

I think it's not just about the cost of delivering the stored frames, it's also about the red ink on the balance sheet caused by spending all that money to buy all the parts and assemble them without getting any revenue. All the photos of stored MAXes I've seen have actual LEAP engines on the wings as opposed to concrete blocks. That costs real money to make happen.

There will be a point where the cost of producing all those aircraft and then retrieving them from storage and preparing them for delivery is just too big a sum.

As I wrote earlier, it's hard to make the argument to continue the current practice when you no longer can estimate RTS with a good degree of confidence.

Who knows, maybe Boeing has a good level of confidence in the global process, but it's hard for me to see how they would.

Most major customer purchase contracts contain a production clause, along the lines, if the OEM announces or ceases model production, the purchaser has the right to review / terminate the balance of aircraft to be delivered, while at the same time preserving retrospective discounts as if all unconditional aircraft ordered have been delivered. Some production clauses go further, triggering buybacks and / or 'frozen' parts prices.

Parallel with getting the MAX in the air, Boeing have a major customer charm offensive, re-negotiating contracts especially deleting / suspending onerous early termination events, offset with sweeteners.

Can Boeing afford to stop production? Can Boeing afford to continue production? Or further reduction? An announcement must be on the cards this week.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:35 pm

par13del wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The big question is what is holding the FAA back.
The FAA sounds more and more pessimistic as time goes by.
It is also worth noting that Boeing fails to create any public or political pressure on the FAA to move faster.
Something smells very fishy. My gut feeling is that the FAA has found confirmation that they have been played by Boeing and that they have evidence that Boeing lied to them.

The FAA is the regulator, they just fined Boeing a couple millions dollars for the slat track issue, so if they have evidence that Boeing lied, holding Boeing to account is not a problem.

If they announce that the 737 MAX will not fly again or that it will be another year, guess who will be on the FAA case, not Boeing but every single politician in DC who is going to have constituents screaming when the thousands of vendors who supply Boeing parts for the MAX in their state start laying off staff and some potentially going out of business..


That is the suspicious point. Boeing has the pull to seriously put pressure on the FAA, but at the moment they do not try and it seems like the FAA is not facing much pressure either. Which imho indicates that the FAA ha something so bad for Boeing that supporting Boeing in the case is not beneficial for any politician, which usually means some serious wrong doing.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:47 pm

seahawk wrote:
That is the suspicious point. Boeing has the pull to seriously put pressure on the FAA, but at the moment they do not try and it seems like the FAA is not facing much pressure either. Which imho indicates that the FAA ha something so bad for Boeing that supporting Boeing in the case is not beneficial for any politician, which usually means some serious wrong doing.

Boeing is the only OEM in the USA for commercial aviation, just as European nations got together to maintain the industry in Europe, the USA will not let Boeing or the industry die in the USA. If the FAA has something so bad on Boeing, to preserve Boeing the blame will be placed on the FAA, after all, who is ultimately responsible for overseeing the certification aspects out-sourced to Boeing? At present, the Hill is all fine and dandy throwing jeers at Boeing, none of them has really thrown up much fud about them not finding the funding to allow the FAA to keep all certification in-house, and we all know that the politicians will not take the blame as both sides of the aisle were a party to the current situation.

My theory is that in the background there is some agreement on a drop dead date for FAA approval for RTS, and based on the groundwork that has already been laid, if other nations regulators attempt to throw a spanner in the works, the a/c will RTS in the USA and the rest of the world will follow suit in their time, let's not get distracted by the "dean man walking" head honcho at Boeing.
In such a situation it would be interesting to see how much effort Boeing spends getting the USA carriers fleet out versus getting all prepared for delivery based on original production schedule.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:51 pm

https://transportation.house.gov/news/p ... tification

DeFazio/Larsen opening statement for todays hearing can be seen here.

Another withering condemnation, and warranted.

Ray
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:54 pm

9Patch wrote:
Have you done a survey on the number of suitable places to store planes around the world and how many cheap or 'free' ones are left?


I don't need to do a survey. It costs money to store planes even if you're able to park them on your own facilities 'for free'. The more planes you store, the more it costs - at the last count, Boeing now has 374 undelivered MAX stored at various fields in WA and TX. There will be more next week.

As I said, it's not rocket science, the costs will be mounting up.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:16 pm

par13del wrote:
Boeing is the only OEM in the USA for commercial aviation, just as European nations got together to maintain the industry in Europe, the USA will not let Boeing or the industry die in the USA. If the FAA has something so bad on Boeing, to preserve Boeing the blame will be placed on the FAA, after all, who is ultimately responsible for overseeing the certification aspects out-sourced to Boeing? At present, the Hill is all fine and dandy throwing jeers at Boeing, none of them has really thrown up much fud about them not finding the funding to allow the FAA to keep all certification in-house, and we all know that the politicians will not take the blame as both sides of the aisle were a party to the current situation.

It's pretty clear from Xray's last post that Congress is putting blame on both Boeing and FAA. In particular it's saying FAA management was favoring Boeing's position over that of its own technical experts. It is correct that they do not seem to be addressing the big picture point that it was Congress itself that make it possible for Boeing to have the upper hand when it came to delegated authority, and has not provided the mechanisms needed for FAA to hire and retain experts (i.e. paying market rate salaries rather than government rate).

par13del wrote:
My theory is that in the background there is some agreement on a drop dead date for FAA approval for RTS, and based on the groundwork that has already been laid, if other nations regulators attempt to throw a spanner in the works, the a/c will RTS in the USA and the rest of the world will follow suit in their time, let's not get distracted by the "dean man walking" head honcho at Boeing.

From what I wrote above, I think that theory is no longer the case. Muilenberg himself just said that a global RTS is now a requirement, thus the US-only RTS is dead. Why he changed his tune is an interesting topic. The earlier suggestion that Boeing would be able to deliver planes without a RTS also seems to be dead. Instead we read FAA will be individually certifying each aircraft. None of the optimistic earlier suggestions seem to be coming true.
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kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:17 pm

par13del wrote:
seahawk wrote:
That is the suspicious point. Boeing has the pull to seriously put pressure on the FAA, but at the moment they do not try and it seems like the FAA is not facing much pressure either. Which imho indicates that the FAA ha something so bad for Boeing that supporting Boeing in the case is not beneficial for any politician, which usually means some serious wrong doing.

Boeing is the only OEM in the USA for commercial aviation, just as European nations got together to maintain the industry in Europe, the USA will not let Boeing or the industry die in the USA. If the FAA has something so bad on Boeing, to preserve Boeing the blame will be placed on the FAA, after all, who is ultimately responsible for overseeing the certification aspects out-sourced to Boeing? At present, the Hill is all fine and dandy throwing jeers at Boeing, none of them has really thrown up much fud about them not finding the funding to allow the FAA to keep all certification in-house, and we all know that the politicians will not take the blame as both sides of the aisle were a party to the current situation.

My theory is that in the background there is some agreement on a drop dead date for FAA approval for RTS, and based on the groundwork that has already been laid, if other nations regulators attempt to throw a spanner in the works, the a/c will RTS in the USA and the rest of the world will follow suit in their time, let's not get distracted by the "dean man walking" head honcho at Boeing.
In such a situation it would be interesting to see how much effort Boeing spends getting the USA carriers fleet out versus getting all prepared for delivery based on original production schedule.

FAA hands are also tied. FAA gives a drop dead approval, EASA publishes their critical dossier - FAA is down the drain with Boeing.
The only way out for Boeing is to get a non-controversial design. Anything else is a domino effect with 737 failure taking a lot of things along with it.
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:19 pm

scbriml wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Have you done a survey on the number of suitable places to store planes around the world and how many cheap or 'free' ones are left?


I don't need to do a survey. It costs money to store planes even if you're able to park them on your own facilities 'for free'. The more planes you store, the more it costs - at the last count, Boeing now has 374 undelivered MAX stored at various fields in WA and TX. There will be more next week.

As I said, it's not rocket science, the costs will be mounting up.


Moving the goalposts? There is no question storing planes cost money, even if you store them at your own facilities.

What I'm questioning is your conjecture that Boeing is running out cheap places to store the MAX and this is causing costs to quickly mount.

How can you say that without knowing what's available and what it costs?
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:31 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
https://transportation.house.gov/news/press-releases/chairs-defazio-larsen-statements-from-hearing-titled-the-boeing-737-max-examining-the-federal-aviation-administrations-oversight-of-the-aircrafts-certification

DeFazio/Larsen opening statement for todays hearing can be seen here.

Another withering condemnation, and warranted.

Ray

For those in any doubt, read the opening statements. Pause, and then re-read.

And you can clearly see the implications for the 777X. Why FAA/EASA are jointly reviewing all X documentation to-date. Why genuine ANet 737 and X contributors have fallen silent. Why STC is commenting about the impact of X delays. Why AF has topped up A350 orders. Why there should be a flurry of current and prospective X customers in the next 30 days placing interim A330/A350/787 orders and / or extending existing WB leases.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:34 pm

Currently US airlines schedule was early Mar RTS. After today, the question is if early June RTS will happen, if Boeing will cut rate or stop production.

If EASA wants to see the data, then I'm curious too. Why did MCAS suddenly become an issue on the MAX and KC-46? Did the 767-200 or 737-600 need MCAS, but it was conveniently ignored as a tangential concern at the time? Only the data tells the truth.
 
VS11
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:43 pm

Taking one year to re-certify the aircraft is not surprising, especially if they coordinate with other regulators. What's surprising is the lack of info about the process and milestones. Even with new frames we hear when major tests are being done, while there is just silence with the Max.
 
Western727
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:47 pm

9Patch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Have you done a survey on the number of suitable places to store planes around the world and how many cheap or 'free' ones are left?


I don't need to do a survey. It costs money to store planes even if you're able to park them on your own facilities 'for free'. The more planes you store, the more it costs - at the last count, Boeing now has 374 undelivered MAX stored at various fields in WA and TX. There will be more next week.

As I said, it's not rocket science, the costs will be mounting up.


Moving the goalposts? There is no question storing planes cost money, even if you store them at your own facilities.

What I'm questioning is your conjecture that Boeing is running out cheap places to store the MAX and this is causing costs to quickly mount.

How can you say that without knowing what's available and what it costs?


It's common sense, based on what's become known about employee parking lots at BFI filling up, as well as in the eastern WA desert (MWH) and in the aforementioned TX. Boeing can only own so much land, and 374 is a staggering amount that only continues to grow every month.
Jack @ AUS
 
LDRA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:48 pm

So what, Boeing stock is up today
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:54 pm

Revelation wrote:
From what I wrote above, I think that theory is no longer the case. Muilenberg himself just said that a global RTS is now a requirement, thus the US-only RTS is dead. Why he changed his tune is an interesting topic. The earlier suggestion that Boeing would be able to deliver planes without a RTS also seems to be dead. Instead we read FAA will be individually certifying each aircraft. None of the optimistic earlier suggestions seem to be coming true.

The suggestion by Boeing that they could deliver to clients without FAA RTS was never a valid issue, I don't think anyone took it seriously.
I think even a EASA source stated that RTS would be in the USA first with Europe and others following later, in all things RTS, I am more inclined to go with their version and the caveat that the Boeing CEO always stated, that RTS ultimately was under the control of the regulators.
No idea if the Boeing board already made a decision, but a reduction in production of any significant amount will get the information pipeline flowing in short order.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:08 pm

9Patch wrote:
Moving the goalposts? There is no question storing planes cost money, even if you store them at your own facilities.

What I'm questioning is your conjecture that Boeing is running out cheap places to store the MAX and this is causing costs to quickly mount.

How can you say that without knowing what's available and what it costs?


There are no goalposts that need to be moved. If it’s conjecture on my part, I’m not sure what your issue is? Did you read the article I linked?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:10 pm

Western727 wrote:
It's common sense, based on what's become known about employee parking lots at BFI filling up, as well as in the eastern WA desert (MWH) and in the aforementioned TX. Boeing can only own so much land, and 374 is a staggering amount that only continues to grow every month.


Straw man arguments. No one is disputing that 'Boeing can only own so much land' or the amount of planes stored continues to grow every month.
 
lhrnue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:17 pm

Wouldn't Boeing create the next problem if the stop production? Which is late delivery penalties … even from airlines not affected at the moment.
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:42 pm

scbriml wrote:
If it’s conjecture on my part, I’m not sure what your issue is?

Is it conjecture?
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:51 pm

9Patch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Have you done a survey on the number of suitable places to store planes around the world and how many cheap or 'free' ones are left?

I don't need to do a survey. It costs money to store planes even if you're able to park them on your own facilities 'for free'. The more planes you store, the more it costs - at the last count, Boeing now has 374 undelivered MAX stored at various fields in WA and TX. There will be more next week.
As I said, it's not rocket science, the costs will be mounting up.

Moving the goalposts? There is no question storing planes cost money, even if you store them at your own facilities.
What I'm questioning is your conjecture that Boeing is running out cheap places to store the MAX and this is causing costs to quickly mount.
How can you say that without knowing what's available and what it costs?



It makes perfect business sense that Boeing first depleted the more expensive parking options, so they can now start using the cheaper options . . .
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9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:04 pm

PW100 wrote:
9Patch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I don't need to do a survey. It costs money to store planes even if you're able to park them on your own facilities 'for free'. The more planes you store, the more it costs - at the last count, Boeing now has 374 undelivered MAX stored at various fields in WA and TX. There will be more next week.
As I said, it's not rocket science, the costs will be mounting up.

Moving the goalposts? There is no question storing planes cost money, even if you store them at your own facilities.
What I'm questioning is your conjecture that Boeing is running out cheap places to store the MAX and this is causing costs to quickly mount.
How can you say that without knowing what's available and what it costs?



It makes perfect business sense that Boeing first depleted the more expensive parking options, so they can now start using the cheaper options . . .


I believe scbriml is arguing the opposite.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:15 pm

9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Moving the goalposts? There is no question storing planes cost money, even if you store them at your own facilities.
What I'm questioning is your conjecture that Boeing is running out cheap places to store the MAX and this is causing costs to quickly mount.
How can you say that without knowing what's available and what it costs?



It makes perfect business sense that Boeing first depleted the more expensive parking options, so they can now start using the cheaper options . . .


I believe scbriml is arguing the opposite.


You mean you don't understand sarcasm . . . ?

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/sarcasm
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
majano
Posts: 280
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:28 pm

9Patch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Have you done a survey on the number of suitable places to store planes around the world and how many cheap or 'free' ones are left?


I don't need to do a survey. It costs money to store planes even if you're able to park them on your own facilities 'for free'. The more planes you store, the more it costs - at the last count, Boeing now has 374 undelivered MAX stored at various fields in WA and TX. There will be more next week.

As I said, it's not rocket science, the costs will be mounting up.


Moving the goalposts? There is no question storing planes cost money, even if you store them at your own facilities.

What I'm questioning is your conjecture that Boeing is running out cheap places to store the MAX and this is causing costs to quickly mount.

How can you say that without knowing what's available and what it costs?

Is it not obvious to you that Boeing would first utilise readily available storage with the lowest cost? Do you believe that such storage is limitless? Can' you please drop this aimless line of enquiry.
 
gregpodpl
Posts: 78
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:30 pm

I have not seen this posted - based on hearing and documents released today:
"U.S. regulators decided to allow Boeing Co.’s 737 MAX jet to keep flying after its first fatal crash last fall even after their own analysis indicated it could become one of the most accident-prone airliners in decades without design changes."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/internal-f ... _lead_pos1 (paywall)
and without paywall from Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... crash-risk

Ups.
 
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speedygonzales
Posts: 674
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:32 pm

beechnut wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The big question is what is holding the FAA back.
The FAA sounds more and more pessimistic as time goes by.
It is also worth noting that Boeing fails to create any public or political pressure on the FAA to move faster.
Something smells very fishy. My gut feeling is that the FAA has found confirmation that they have been played by Boeing and that they have evidence that Boeing lied to them.


I agree something smells fishy. One wonders if it’s political, or technical or a bit of both. It could be a domino effect, a major change unleashing a bunch of unintended consequences.

I’ve heard some insider information from Transport Canada that is very pessimistic. I can’t say if this is just personal opinion, or some sort of growing conclusion. I suspect it’s just one person’s opinion.

Beech

I think the MCAS-off behavior might be a sticking point. From what we've heard about MCAS 2.0 it should do a good job in preventing false positives, but at the same time the likelihood of a false negative has increased. Since you should be prepared to lose an AoA vane at any time, that means the MCAS-off handling characteristics need to be benign. If it's not, ditching MCAS and doing an aerodynamic fix (which may very well increase drag in normal operation) may be required.
Ignorance kills. :tombstone:

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