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patrickjp93
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:42 pm

par13del wrote:
phollingsworth wrote:
There are a few areas where this process comes to bite Boeing:
  • The non-unified architecture of the 737 avionics system when compared to newer aircraft. This means that adding capability often involves bother hardware and software changes. This makes it more complex.
  • Whether or not availability of the MCAS is critical. Is it ok to move from MCAS being unavailable ~1E-5 per flight hour to ~2E-5 per flight hour?
  • The regulators lack of trust in Boeing's methods. This will extend beyond the delegated authority aspect.

We can add to that the problem of TC validation. If the FAA screws this up the whole certification-validation process is at risk. Meaning that the cost of certifying future aircraft will grow substantially. The rest of the industry would have a conniption if this were to happen.

The FAA has already raised the cost of certification, how permanent remains to be seen, they have stated that they will be the ones to certify each individual MAX, that is an added cost since there are 300+ sitting down and once RTS is given if ever, those as well. The permanent issue is whether they intend to return authority to Boeing and what are their requirements and timelines.
If they have determined that Boeing safety issue is only MAX related, then all the other a/c still being produced do not see an increase in cost, however if it is about Boeing safety, they should revoke authority for all products.

Nice bias there. Each engineering initiative is its own with its own enormous team 90+% separate from every other even at the upper management levels. I assume you don't seriously mean revoke the certificates of the 737 NG, 757, 767, 777-200, and 777-300 families in the same swing, even though that's what you just wrote...
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:43 pm

par13del wrote:
phollingsworth wrote:
There are a few areas where this process comes to bite Boeing:
  • The non-unified architecture of the 737 avionics system when compared to newer aircraft. This means that adding capability often involves bother hardware and software changes. This makes it more complex.
  • Whether or not availability of the MCAS is critical. Is it ok to move from MCAS being unavailable ~1E-5 per flight hour to ~2E-5 per flight hour?
  • The regulators lack of trust in Boeing's methods. This will extend beyond the delegated authority aspect.

We can add to that the problem of TC validation. If the FAA screws this up the whole certification-validation process is at risk. Meaning that the cost of certifying future aircraft will grow substantially. The rest of the industry would have a conniption if this were to happen.

The FAA has already raised the cost of certification, how permanent remains to be seen, they have stated that they will be the ones to certify each individual MAX, that is an added cost since there are 300+ sitting down and once RTS is given if ever, those as well. The permanent issue is whether they intend to return authority to Boeing and what are their requirements and timelines.
If they have determined that Boeing safety issue is only MAX related, then all the other a/c still being produced do not see an increase in cost, however if it is about Boeing safety, they should revoke authority for all products.


Since FAA will be certifying each Max before delivery.... would the FAA have the power to set a monthly production rate
until the backlog is cleared out?
Last edited by Sooner787 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:44 pm

phollingsworth wrote:
Boeing is betting, you can make your own view on whether or not it is a good bet, that even the hardware changes will be relatively minor and that new 737MAXs that roll off the assembly line after the TC is cleared will either already be to type or not long after they will be produced to type, and that they can be produced under Boeing's Production Certificate fairly soon after TC approval. This means even though it might take a while to clear the backlog they can deliver at current rate quickly and scale back up in relatively short order. If Boeing drops the rate much more, or worse shuts the line down completely it will take a long-time, potentially several years, to get back to the original rate. This is actually worse than having to modify several hundred frames. In fact given what happens when you have a rapid shutdown of a line like the 737, Boeing my never be able to restore the rate. The critical infrastructure would quickly disappear and some of the suppliers will fold.

All well and good, it was a bet Boeing took early in the year, the fact that they reduced the rate from 50+ to 42 says that they saw cost as an issue a long time ago.
The issue now is how much "free money" Boeing has on hand to continue to pay vendors for a product that is generating no revenue. If they run out of money or compromise the business case of their other divisions, the cost of the line restart becomes irrelevant. As for years, exactly how many years do you now think it will take Boeing to recoup what has been lost on the MAX, I think we may have already gotten to the point that the MAX will be replaced BEFORE they have recouped their initial investment and whatever this grounding has cost. The 787 at present is the only product bringing in substantial revenue, and that depending on who you talk to is suspect because the deferred cost are still in excess of billions, in addition, they need additional sales to allow production to continue at the current rate. The 777X is not yet in service so no help on that side.
The fear of the production line should be getting smaller and smaller the longer this goes on.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:47 pm

par13del wrote:
phollingsworth wrote:
Boeing is betting, you can make your own view on whether or not it is a good bet, that even the hardware changes will be relatively minor and that new 737MAXs that roll off the assembly line after the TC is cleared will either already be to type or not long after they will be produced to type, and that they can be produced under Boeing's Production Certificate fairly soon after TC approval. This means even though it might take a while to clear the backlog they can deliver at current rate quickly and scale back up in relatively short order. If Boeing drops the rate much more, or worse shuts the line down completely it will take a long-time, potentially several years, to get back to the original rate. This is actually worse than having to modify several hundred frames. In fact given what happens when you have a rapid shutdown of a line like the 737, Boeing my never be able to restore the rate. The critical infrastructure would quickly disappear and some of the suppliers will fold.

All well and good, it was a bet Boeing took early in the year, the fact that they reduced the rate from 50+ to 42 says that they saw cost as an issue a long time ago.
The issue now is how much "free money" Boeing has on hand to continue to pay vendors for a product that is generating no revenue. If they run out of money or compromise the business case of their other divisions, the cost of the line restart becomes irrelevant. As for years, exactly how many years do you now think it will take Boeing to recoup what has been lost on the MAX, I think we may have already gotten to the point that the MAX will be replaced BEFORE they have recouped their initial investment and whatever this grounding has cost. The 787 at present is the only product bringing in substantial revenue, and that depending on who you talk to is suspect because the deferred cost are still in excess of billions, in addition, they need additional sales to allow production to continue at the current rate. The 777X is not yet in service so no help on that side.
The fear of the production line should be getting smaller and smaller the longer this goes on.


The 787 deferred cost has no bearing on available cash. That money was spent a long time ago. When funds come in for 787 deliveries, they don't actually go away to pay off the deferred cost. The cash becomes available.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:47 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
Nice bias there. Each engineering initiative is its own with its own enormous team 90+% separate from every other even at the upper management levels. I assume you don't seriously mean revoke the certificates of the 737 NG, 757, 767, 777-200, and 777-300 families in the same swing, even though that's what you just wrote...

I am / was talking about the FAA already stating that they will be the one's certifying each individual MAX, if related to the MAX that is fine as we all know the situation.
If it is about safety at Boeing, is there one Boeing doing the MAX and another doing the 787, we have seen quality issue on the 787, let's leave the military side out of the discussion.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:48 pm

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... accidents/

This article lays out who knew what, and what was said to whom, in a fairly understandable format. It also emphasizes the rudder cable problems which, so far as I know, has not been addressed by Boeing. The value of congressional hearings are that answers have to be given, and are, as a result, a matter of record. all of this both by Boeing and by the FAA.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:51 pm

par13del wrote:
phollingsworth wrote:
Boeing is betting, you can make your own view on whether or not it is a good bet, that even the hardware changes will be relatively minor and that new 737MAXs that roll off the assembly line after the TC is cleared will either already be to type or not long after they will be produced to type, and that they can be produced under Boeing's Production Certificate fairly soon after TC approval. This means even though it might take a while to clear the backlog they can deliver at current rate quickly and scale back up in relatively short order. If Boeing drops the rate much more, or worse shuts the line down completely it will take a long-time, potentially several years, to get back to the original rate. This is actually worse than having to modify several hundred frames. In fact given what happens when you have a rapid shutdown of a line like the 737, Boeing my never be able to restore the rate. The critical infrastructure would quickly disappear and some of the suppliers will fold.

All well and good, it was a bet Boeing took early in the year, the fact that they reduced the rate from 50+ to 42 says that they saw cost as an issue a long time ago.
The issue now is how much "free money" Boeing has on hand to continue to pay vendors for a product that is generating no revenue. If they run out of money or compromise the business case of their other divisions, the cost of the line restart becomes irrelevant. As for years, exactly how many years do you now think it will take Boeing to recoup what has been lost on the MAX, I think we may have already gotten to the point that the MAX will be replaced BEFORE they have recouped their initial investment and whatever this grounding has cost. The 787 at present is the only product bringing in substantial revenue, and that depending on who you talk to is suspect because the deferred cost are still in excess of billions, in addition, they need additional sales to allow production to continue at the current rate. The 777X is not yet in service so no help on that side.
The fear of the production line should be getting smaller and smaller the longer this goes on.

Boeing will get a U.S. bond loan if it really comes down to it as long as they're sure the plane will take back off. Cash isn't a problem for a firm with guaranteed business able to pay off low (but market rate) interest loans.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:53 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
Since FAA will be certifying each Max before delivery.... would the FAA have the power to set a monthly production rate
until the backlog is cleared out?

No need, all Boeing has to know either through observation or by an FAA statement is how long it will take them to certify the a/c, with that information in hand they can make decisions on production.
If the MAX is returned to service, there will be two sets of a/c to certify, those already produced which will be submitted after Boeing fixes them, and those coming off the line with the fix already applied.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:55 pm

par13del wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Nice bias there. Each engineering initiative is its own with its own enormous team 90+% separate from every other even at the upper management levels. I assume you don't seriously mean revoke the certificates of the 737 NG, 757, 767, 777-200, and 777-300 families in the same swing, even though that's what you just wrote...

I am / was talking about the FAA already stating that they will be the one's certifying each individual MAX, if related to the MAX that is fine as we all know the situation.
If it is about safety at Boeing, is there one Boeing doing the MAX and another doing the 787, we have seen quality issue on the 787, let's leave the military side out of the discussion.

The 787 has a crash-free record, and despite all the "whistle blowers" hasn't had any corroboration on accused problems except for one ex-manager who seems to be steamed about losing his pension. Other than the battery issue, what QC issues has the 787 really had that aren't the RR engine problem? As discussed elsewhere, the Air India ram turbine problem was found to be AI's own fault.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:02 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/faa-analysis-after-first-737-max-crash-estimated-high-risk-of-further-accidents/

This article lays out who knew what, and what was said to whom, in a fairly understandable format. It also emphasizes the rudder cable problems which, so far as I know, has not been addressed by Boeing. The value of congressional hearings are that answers have to be given, and are, as a result, a matter of record. all of this both by Boeing and by the FAA.

Addressed by Boeing per FAA mandate or is that also sitting in the wind?
Is the FAA debating mandating a hardware fix to eliminate MCAS, do they also want a resized trim wheel?
I think it is a safe bet that Boeing can provide them with a reasonable timeline and cost for hardware repairs, until the FAA is reformed, they still have to wear both hats, safety and industry.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:08 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
The 787 has a crash-free record, and despite all the "whistle blowers" hasn't had any corroboration on accused problems except for one ex-manager who seems to be steamed about losing his pension. Other than the battery issue, what QC issues has the 787 really had that aren't the RR engine problem? As discussed elsewhere, the Air India ram turbine problem was found to be AI's own fault.

The trend of thought is whether all the adjustments that the FAA are making is related solely to the MAX and must be stated as such, or are they talking about safety at Boeing in general.
On the 787, the new production facility in the south has been the cause of much discussion, including customers refusing to take a/c and others openly complaining about quality control issues, my assumption is that these were all known so I did not think we needed to get into detail which will derail this thread.
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:16 pm

morrisond wrote:
All the delays to me seem to make the Prospect of them just ditching MCAS and specifying more stall training (Which allows the FAA to somewhat save face as they had already mandated this for US pilots anyways - if this had been the Worldwide standard they could have possibly waived MCAS in the first place) as a much more probable outcome.

I am not saying this is what will happen - but something is going on and it might not be as dire as some are speculating.


Essentially what that leaked email from the Transport Canada certified was suggesting no?

A lot of the delay can basically come down to one thing: avoiding additional training. They are all chasing their tails trying to avoid this outcome. I wish Boeing would eat the cost, get the MAX back to service and immediately launch FSA.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:21 pm

Do we have to derail the thread with such stupid conspiracy theories?

Let me put it that way, when was the last time Boeing said anything concrete about the end of the grounding? Which milestones have been reached, which are still open - what are the problems?

This silence indicates to me, that they are facing huge problems and it is not politics that keeps them grounded but real technical problems. Either the avionics can not really handle MCAS 2.0 or the stall handling without MCAS is problematic - those are imho the 2 likeliest options.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:34 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
..
The 787 has a crash-free record, and despite all the "whistle blowers" hasn't had any corroboration on accused problems except for one ex-manager who seems to be steamed about losing his pension. Other than the battery issue, what QC issues has the 787 really had that aren't the RR engine problem? As discussed elsewhere, the Air India ram turbine problem was found to be AI's own fault.


If it is all AI's fault why Boeing paid $420 Million compensation for 787 delays, not meeting specs, grounding, and technical issues. There was no compensation clause in the AI 787 contract.

Even if an AI 787 crashed it would have been AI MX/Crew issue.

IMHO, the social media campaign success with AI 787s emboldened Boeing and put it in the pickle it is in today with MAX. It still believes few NYT, WaPo articles and relentless SM activity can make MAX issues go away without changing a line of code.
All posts are just opinions.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:38 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
And no, with only 2 crashes you can't reliably make that calculation.

Problem is that you need to act based on data on hand. So crash history is not interpreted as random independent tests; underlying mechanisms are analyzed and conclusions are made based on much more detailed information than random tests would allow.
ANd based on those mechanisms - MAX has some serious issues, making it unsafe. No need to invoke statistics 101.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:42 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
..
The 787 has a crash-free record, and despite all the "whistle blowers" hasn't had any corroboration on accused problems except for one ex-manager who seems to be steamed about losing his pension. Other than the battery issue, what QC issues has the 787 really had that aren't the RR engine problem? As discussed elsewhere, the Air India ram turbine problem was found to be AI's own fault.


If it is all AI's fault why Boeing paid $420 Million compensation for 787 delays, not meeting specs, grounding, and technical issues. There was no compensation clause in the AI 787 contract.

Even if an AI 787 crashed it would have been AI MX/Crew issue.

IMHO, the social media campaign success with AI 787s emboldened Boeing and put it in the pickle it is in today with MAX. It still believes few NYT, WaPo articles and relentless SM activity can make MAX issues go away without changing a line of code.

787 delays due to production problems are a separate issue from QC issues, and the weight problem was not QC but a design issue they had to compensate for. Further, India is the next big market after China, so Boeing wants customers and customer loyalty. A favor today can lead to orders tomorrow. That's business.

As for the second point, maybe, we'd have to get a complete analysis of the crash.

You really think Boeing management and engineers haven't been scrambling to fix everything they can as quickly as possible since the Ethiopian crash? Someone really needs to actually work in a corporate environment.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:46 pm

seahawk wrote:
Do we have to derail the thread with such stupid conspiracy theories?

Let me put it that way, when was the last time Boeing said anything concrete about the end of the grounding? Which milestones have been reached, which are still open - what are the problems?

This silence indicates to me, that they are facing huge problems and it is not politics that keeps them grounded but real technical problems. Either the avionics can not really handle MCAS 2.0 or the stall handling without MCAS is problematic - those are imho the 2 likeliest options.


Thanks. Please keep conspiracy theories out of the discussion and stay on topic.
 
checklist350
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:28 pm

Revelation wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
While it is not in the FAA Mission Statement any longer, the promotion of aviation was in there a few years ago.

Actually the only change to the mission statement was to change the word "promote" to "encourage". FAA itself viewed the change as window dressing, which it was, and has not changed its behavior.

I started a thread on this at viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1436675&p=21851477#p21851477 since I thought it deserved more discussion.

enzo011 wrote:
It is obvious you cannot be both the regulator and promoter of an industry as there will be times when your priorities will be incompatible. How can you deny Boeing a new production method when it will save money and create more jobs by selling more planes but the safety analysis is questionable? Where do you decide to rule? Safety or promotion of industry?

It's not obvious to everyone if you read the thread I started.

enzo011 wrote:
That brings me to your suggestion that Boeing should just threaten to cut jobs to get information on certification. I think the problem the FAA and Boeing has right now is that other agencies are involved where no conflict of interest exists. EASA doesn't care about jobs in Washington so they are not looking at certification from both sides. They only care about safety with the MAX and as a result I think we see the missed targets from Boeing. I am fairly certain if it was only up to the FAA that the MAX would have been close to RTS already. This would have been because of the outside factors putting pressure on them, but with the joint work it means there is a second voice in the room telling the FAA that they should forget the shouts from Boeing to get the certification done when there are still items that need to be resolved.

I fully expected that the workaround was going to be a US-first ungrounding, but now Boeing's CEO is saying that will not happen.

To me this change is more significant than most here seem to realize, it alone can an indeterminate amount of time till ungrounding which will blow up Boeing's attempt to keep the 737 production line running for IMO not much additional benefit in safety.

I thought the US-first ungrounding was a reasonable approach. Each regulator could apply their own standards and if some found things that needed to be improved then those improvements would be incorporated in all models over time. Now with the insistence on a global ungrounding, some of the regulators are going to feel pressure to conform to the common will and certify the plane even if they have objections. So, in a perverse way, the global RTS may decrease safety.

I'm still wondering why the change to a global RTS happened. Did Boeing decide it was in its own best interest to have the global RTS, or did FAA insist?


A phased RTS / recertification was never a realistic option, many tried to explain that to you when you were adament this was the logical path forward. It never was. Just in the heads of a surprising amount of Americans (including FAA & Boeing) who simply are unfamiliar with the concept of having to listen to the rest of the world for once.

What if the "5 items" on the EASA list were in fact hard demands? Or simply two of them: third AoA sensor and a solution to the trim wheel. How would Boeing fix that for the current planes in operation? Would be a rather expensive exercise to recall them for significant hardware changes. And then, half a year later the Chinese demand something else? Would they recall the 1000 airplanes in operation for a second time, or would they simply strongarm China and Europe into accepting the FAA terms or face economic sanctions, since the MAX had already 'proven' to be safe in the US skies?

The path to a staged recertification would have always been a path of strongarming the rest of the world into compliance. Guess what? the rest of the world seemed to have grown a spine.
Last edited by checklist350 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
I fully expected that the workaround was going to be a US-first ungrounding, but now Boeing's CEO is saying that will not happen.

To me this change is more significant than most here seem to realize, it alone can an indeterminate amount of time till ungrounding which will blow up Boeing's attempt to keep the 737 production line running for IMO not much additional benefit in safety.

I thought the US-first ungrounding was a reasonable approach. Each regulator could apply their own standards and if some found things that needed to be improved then those improvements would be incorporated in all models over time. Now with the insistence on a global ungrounding, some of the regulators are going to feel pressure to conform to the common will and certify the plane even if they have objections. So, in a perverse way, the global RTS may decrease safety.

I'm still wondering why the change to a global RTS happened. Did Boeing decide it was in its own best interest to have the global RTS, or did FAA insist?

Universal RTS is coming from the FAA (who don't want to be first man counted), and increasingly the finance and insurance industries (that do not want asset mobility and therefore value impaired, as a result of a disjointed RTS).

Almost by default this is leading to the creation of a well resourced, global airworthiness authority, the catalyst for which has been JATR, from which the original intention was to exclude the FAA.

Don't underestimate the enthusiasm for such moves from A & B. They aren't and won't be singing from the rooftops. However Boeing wants a definitive global list of MAX features to be changed, action approved and implemented, not USA approval, RTS US only, then added changes for the rest of the World, then FAA concluding they are relevant, and adding those retrospectively to the US standard.

And Airbus wants to know where to from here. How far can we push A320 family developments? A bigger A350? An A350NEO? More capability on the A330NEO?

The unfortunate aspect for Boeing, is that they and the MAX have become the catalyst for airworthiness reviews, though some would say this is well deserved, and the first new build post FAA/EASA partnership is the X.
 
checklist350
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:38 pm

smartplane wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I fully expected that the workaround was going to be a US-first ungrounding, but now Boeing's CEO is saying that will not happen.

To me this change is more significant than most here seem to realize, it alone can an indeterminate amount of time till ungrounding which will blow up Boeing's attempt to keep the 737 production line running for IMO not much additional benefit in safety.

I thought the US-first ungrounding was a reasonable approach. Each regulator could apply their own standards and if some found things that needed to be improved then those improvements would be incorporated in all models over time. Now with the insistence on a global ungrounding, some of the regulators are going to feel pressure to conform to the common will and certify the plane even if they have objections. So, in a perverse way, the global RTS may decrease safety.

I'm still wondering why the change to a global RTS happened. Did Boeing decide it was in its own best interest to have the global RTS, or did FAA insist?

Universal RTS is coming from the FAA (who don't want to be first man counted), and increasingly the finance and insurance industries (that do not want to have asset mobility and therefore value impaired, as a result of a disjointed RTS).

Almost by default this is leading to the creation of a well resourced, global airworthiness authority, the catalyst for which has been JATR, from which the original intention was to exclude the FAA.

Don't underestimate the enthusiasm for such moves from the A & B. They aren't and won't be singing from the rooftops. However Boeing wants a definitive global list of MAX features to be changed, action approved and implemented, not USA approval, RTS US only, then added changes for the rest of the World, then FAA concluding they are relevant, and adding those retrospectively to the US standard..

And Airbus wants to know where to from here. How far can we push A320 family developments? A bigger A350? An A350NEO? More capability on the A330NEO?

The unfortunate aspect for Boeing, is that they and the MAX have become the catalyst for airworthiness reviews, though some would say this is well deserved, and the first new build of the joint FAA/EASA partnership is the X.


I think you're a bit premature with declaring the formation of a global regulator and singing its praises.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:41 pm

TObound wrote:
morrisond wrote:
All the delays to me seem to make the Prospect of them just ditching MCAS and specifying more stall training (Which allows the FAA to somewhat save face as they had already mandated this for US pilots anyways - if this had been the Worldwide standard they could have possibly waived MCAS in the first place) as a much more probable outcome.

I am not saying this is what will happen - but something is going on and it might not be as dire as some are speculating.


Essentially what that leaked email from the Transport Canada certified was suggesting no?

A lot of the delay can basically come down to one thing: avoiding additional training. They are all chasing their tails trying to avoid this outcome. I wish Boeing would eat the cost, get the MAX back to service and immediately launch FSA.


Yet if other Jurisdictions adopt the FAA stall training requirements from 2015 that must be completed by I think sometime next year it's not additional training. It's just taking Worldwide standards up to US levels (if they have not already done so). Assuming that the MAX stalls somewhat normally - remove MCAS and have any Pilot who flies the MAX complete the training before flying it with paying passengers.

The document outlines doing it in SIMS or also actual airplanes (of course without Passengers). I'm sure there are a few MAX's around that Boeing could dedicate to this.

This reg seems to have resulted from the findings of most of the fatal accidents in the past 10 years.

From the Document: https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/med ... 0-109A.pdf

1-1. GENERAL. Based on accident review, a concern exists within the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) and industry regarding loss of control in-flight (LOC-I) accidents and
incidents. A recurring causal factor in LOC-I accidents and incidents is the pilot’s inappropriate
reaction to impending stalls and full stalls. Evidence exists that some pilots are failing to avoid
conditions that may lead to a stall, or are failing to recognize the insidious onset of an impending
stall during routine operations in both manual and automatic flight. Evidence also exists that
some pilots may not have the required skills or training to respond appropriately to an
unexpected stall. Stall training should always emphasize reduction of angle of attack (AOA) as
the most important response when confronted with an impending or full stall. This advisory
circular (AC) provides best practices on training, testing, and checking of impending stalls and
training of full stalls, including recommended recovery procedures.

c. Envelope-Protected Airplanes. Envelope-protected airplanes have, in general,
demonstrated a lower rate of stall accidents and incidents; however, the rate is not zero. Stall
accidents and incidents in envelope-protected airplanes typically occur when the protections
have failed, requiring the pilot to return the aircraft to safe flight using a degraded flight control
mode. As such, it is important to carefully develop the stall prevention and recovery training for
envelope-protected aircraft so that (1) the failure path(s) to reach the degraded modes are
understood, (2) pilots learn to identify the rarely occurring impending or full stalls, and (3) pilots
demonstrate they have the skill to return the aircraft to safe flight with the degraded flight control
laws. Although the potential failures that lead to degraded modes must be understood by pilots,
handling multiple failures should not be a component of maneuver-based stall training. The
simulator should be placed in a degraded mode by the instructor, clearing all warnings and
cautions associated with the failures before the stall training begins. Training providers should
seek manufacture guidance for preferred methods of placing the simulator in degraded modes.

If all pilots had the training outlined in the document and assuming that the MAX is somewhat benign - would that not be a reasonable solution? Just remove MCAS and do more training?
 
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FlyingJhawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:46 pm

So what we have here is further grounding of the MAX for the foreseeable future? Like months, not weeks?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:02 pm

FlyingJhawk wrote:
So what we have here is further grounding of the MAX for the foreseeable future? Like months, not weeks?


I would suggest at this Point January is highly unlikely and February is looking Sketchy but not improbable. I would guess it will be at least a full one year from grounding until RTS.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:06 pm

checklist350 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
[Universal RTS is coming from the FAA (who don't want to be first man counted), and increasingly the finance and insurance industries (that do not want to have asset mobility and therefore value impaired, as a result of a disjointed RTS).

Almost by default this is leading to the creation of a well resourced, global airworthiness authority, the catalyst for which has been JATR, from which the original intention was to exclude the FAA.

Don't underestimate the enthusiasm for such moves from the A & B. They aren't and won't be singing from the rooftops. However Boeing wants a definitive global list of MAX features to be changed, action approved and implemented, not USA approval, RTS US only, then added changes for the rest of the World, then FAA concluding they are relevant, and adding those retrospectively to the US standard..

And Airbus wants to know where to from here. How far can we push A320 family developments? A bigger A350? An A350NEO? More capability on the A330NEO?

The unfortunate aspect for Boeing, is that they and the MAX have become the catalyst for airworthiness reviews, though some would say this is well deserved, and the first new build of the joint FAA/EASA partnership is the X.


I think you're a bit premature with declaring the formation of a global regulator and singing its praises.

It's occurring by default. Some would say by stealth, but industry players outside the OEM's have been keen for decades.

One party, in favour, as long as the FAA continues to exist, is the FAA. The UN / IATA. Ditto Japan, Canada, Russia and China.

FAA is sub-contracting MAX issues, solutions and testing beyond the confines of the national borders.

There must be Christmas bells ringing in your ears. Me singing, praises?
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:12 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
And no, with only 2 crashes you can't reliably make that calculation.

Problem is that you need to act based on data on hand. So crash history is not interpreted as random independent tests; underlying mechanisms are analyzed and conclusions are made based on much more detailed information than random tests would allow.
ANd based on those mechanisms - MAX has some serious issues, making it unsafe. No need to invoke statistics 101.


No, you do not need to act on the data at hand when there are serious gaps in that data just because you're afraid of possibilities. That has led to ruin in so many projects in every industry it would make your head spin. Be patient, gather more data, and be watchful.

You cannot ever know everything you need to in order to make an informed decision, but by the math the Boeing 737 MAX grounding was rushed, so if public sentiment is that it wasn't rushed, then by the math there are many historical examples I can point to which they either have to accept to be consistent themselves, or change their outlook on to be consistent.

And yes, you need to invoke statistics 101, because just as a basement dwelling mathematician poked numerous holes in the U.N.'s climate change committee studies, any capable statistician should be able to interrogate anything published by the FAA, EASA, Boeing, or Airbus and be able to validate or debunk it. That is the process of peer review. I'm perfectly capable of understanding most of the mathematics in the FAA's report, and some of it is shoddy work or doesn't lay out assumptions for baseline variables with justification for those assumptions.

These people are not demigods. Their work is not infallible. You're not an idiot, and neither am I.

Once again: MAX was grounded not after the second crash - it was grounded after common cause of 2 crashes was proven.
And remember - there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:43 pm

Mr Kiefer, TAB spokesman, in his testimony this week has provided some further insight into the FCC software changes (I guess he must a friend at NASA who knows some software engineers at Boeing). He confirms the calculation and use of a 'midvalue select' for AoA and that the X Channel checks apply to all trim functions.
https://transportation.house.gov/imo/me ... timony.pdf

'...There are four main changes to the B737 MAX flight control system software that have been developed to prevent future accidents like the ones that happened with the Lion Air and Ethiopian Air flights. They include the following:

1. Angle of Attack (AoA) comparison – an addition to MCAS that will now compare readings from both angle of attack sensors on the aircraft. If there is a difference of more than 5.5 degrees the speed trim system will be disabled. Also included in this change is something known as a “midvalue select” which uses data from both sensors together to create a third input that will help to filter out any AOA signal oscillatory failures or spurious sensor failures. This modification will prevent MCAS from commanding nose down trim when a single AoA sensor reports a false AoA as it happened in the two accident flights.

2. MCAS resynchronization – this change will account for manual electric trim inputs made by the pilot while MCAS is activating. It will track whatever input the pilot makes and return the pitch trim to that setting when MCAS retrims back to normal.

3. Stab trim command limit – is an addition that will limit the maximum nose down trim that the automatic flight control system can command to prevent the pitch trim from reaching an uncontrollable situation.

4. FCC monitors – software monitors have been added to the flight control computers that will cross check pitch trim commands against each other. If a difference is detected by these monitors the automatic trim functions are disabled. This protection helps prevent erroneous trim commands from a myriad of causes that could occur in the automatic flight control system.

These design changes in the software that controls the automatic pitch trim features including MCAS should prevent angle of attack sensor failures from causing the pitch trim to operate when it should not. Further, they should prevent the trim from activating erroneously for other reasons as well....'


Ray
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:55 pm

Boeing just clarified RTS in a statement. RTS is in 2020.....Crossing fingers

BOEING SAYS IT WILL WORK WITH FAA TO SUPPORT THEIR 737 MAX REQUIREMENTS AND TIMELINE 'AS WE WORK TO SAFELY RETURN THE MAX TO SERVICE IN 2020' - Reuters - 2:51 PM (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada) Dec 12, 2019
Last edited by morrisond on Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:15 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
Nice bias there. Each engineering initiative is its own with its own enormous team 90+% separate from every other even at the upper management levels. I assume you don't seriously mean revoke the certificates of the 737 NG, 757, 767, 777-200, and 777-300 families in the same swing, even though that's what you just wrote...


It needs to be clarified, there are multiple certifications involved here.

The Type Certificate accepts the design. This is program level.

The Production Certificate accepts that the production system will make the plane according to the design. This is program level.

The Airworthiness Certificate accepts that the plane meets the type certificate and is in safe condition to operate. This gets approved for each frame and is what was reported in the news a couple weeks ago. Each 737 MAX will have its airworthiness review done by the FAA, not by Boeing designees.

Sooner787 wrote:
Since FAA will be certifying each Max before delivery.... would the FAA have the power to set a monthly production rate
until the backlog is cleared out?


Indirectly, yes, in a manner of speaking. A customer won't accept a plane without an airworthiness certificate. If the FAA isn't staffed to process the certifications as fast as planes are produced, especially early on as they develop the routine for this, it will limit the delivery rate, and the production rate would likely be held back to match.
 
AirwayBill
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:16 pm

morrisond wrote:
Boeing just clarified RTS in a statement. RTS is in 2020.....Crossing fingers

BOEING SAYS IT WILL WORK WITH FAA TO SUPPORT THEIR 737 MAX REQUIREMENTS AND TIMELINE 'AS WE WORK TO SAFELY RETURN THE MAX TO SERVICE IN 2020' - Reuters - 2:51 PM (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada) Dec 12, 2019


Given the intentionally vague narrative and how sloppy and awkward the RTS process currently is, safe to say nothing will happen before June at least.

February is delusional. As delusional as saying "the grounding will last 2 months tops and the MAX will be back for peak season" in March 2019.

Digging, and digging...
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:18 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Nice bias there. Each engineering initiative is its own with its own enormous team 90+% separate from every other even at the upper management levels. I assume you don't seriously mean revoke the certificates of the 737 NG, 757, 767, 777-200, and 777-300 families in the same swing, even though that's what you just wrote...


It needs to be clarified, there are multiple certifications involved here.

The Type Certificate accepts the design. This is program level.

The Production Certificate accepts that the production system will make the plane according to the design. This is program level.

The Airworthiness Certificate accepts that the plane meets the type certificate and is in safe condition to operate. This gets approved for each frame and is what was reported in the news a couple weeks ago. Each 737 MAX will have its airworthiness review done by the FAA, not by Boeing designees.

Sooner787 wrote:
Since FAA will be certifying each Max before delivery.... would the FAA have the power to set a monthly production rate
until the backlog is cleared out?


Indirectly, yes, in a manner of speaking. A customer won't accept a plane without an airworthiness certificate. If the FAA isn't staffed to process the certifications as fast as planes are produced, especially early on as they develop the routine for this, it will limit the delivery rate, and the production rate would likely be held back to match.

Eh, nothing a little back room agreement for Boeing to let some engineers go to work for the FAA for a while can't solve. The sooner the inspections are passed the sooner the engineers are back at Boeing making better private sector money. :lol:
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:19 pm

AirwayBill wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Boeing just clarified RTS in a statement. RTS is in 2020.....Crossing fingers

BOEING SAYS IT WILL WORK WITH FAA TO SUPPORT THEIR 737 MAX REQUIREMENTS AND TIMELINE 'AS WE WORK TO SAFELY RETURN THE MAX TO SERVICE IN 2020' - Reuters - 2:51 PM (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada) Dec 12, 2019


Given the intentionally vague narrative and how sloppy and awkward the RTS process currently is, safe to say nothing will happen before June at least.

February is delusional. As delusional as saying "the grounding will last 2 months tops and the MAX will be back for peak season" in March 2019.

Digging, and digging...


Well given it's the FAA controlling this dance and the FAA is the one not saying anything on concrete requirements/milestones, I wonder if Boeing can sue for damages after the fact for gross mismanagement of the process.
 
shmerik
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:25 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
Well given it's the FAA controlling this dance and the FAA is the one not saying anything on concrete requirements/milestones, I wonder if Boeing can sue for damages after the fact for gross mismanagement of the process.


FAA's milestones:

There are five key milestones Boeing must complete with the FAA before return to service:

FAA eCab Simulator Certification Session: A multi-day eCab simulator evaluation with the FAA to ensure the overall software system performs its intended function, both normally and in the presence of system failures. COMPLETED

FAA Line Pilots Crew Workload Evaluation: A separate, multi-day simulator session with airline pilots to assess human factors and crew workload under various test conditions.

FAA Certification Flight Test: FAA pilots will conduct a certification flight(s) of the final updated software.

Boeing Final Submittal to the FAA: After completion of the FAA certification flight, Boeing will submit the final certification deliverables and artifacts to the FAA to support software certification.

Joint Operational Evaluation Board (JOEB) Simulator Training Evaluation: The Joint Operational Evaluation Board (JOEB), a multi-regulatory body, conducts a multi-day simulator session with global regulatory pilots to validate training requirements. Following the simulator session, the Flight Standardization Board will release a report for a public comment period, followed by final approval of the training.

 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:26 pm

According to CNBC Phil

Southwest now says April

Southwest also said they reached agreement with Boeing on grounding Compensation

Ramp up in production to 47 in March
52 in September and won't reach 57 until Spring 2021
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:45 pm

shmerik wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Well given it's the FAA controlling this dance and the FAA is the one not saying anything on concrete requirements/milestones, I wonder if Boeing can sue for damages after the fact for gross mismanagement of the process.


FAA's milestones:

There are five key milestones Boeing must complete with the FAA before return to service:

FAA eCab Simulator Certification Session: A multi-day eCab simulator evaluation with the FAA to ensure the overall software system performs its intended function, both normally and in the presence of system failures. COMPLETED

FAA Line Pilots Crew Workload Evaluation: A separate, multi-day simulator session with airline pilots to assess human factors and crew workload under various test conditions.

FAA Certification Flight Test: FAA pilots will conduct a certification flight(s) of the final updated software.

Boeing Final Submittal to the FAA: After completion of the FAA certification flight, Boeing will submit the final certification deliverables and artifacts to the FAA to support software certification.

Joint Operational Evaluation Board (JOEB) Simulator Training Evaluation: The Joint Operational Evaluation Board (JOEB), a multi-regulatory body, conducts a multi-day simulator session with global regulatory pilots to validate training requirements. Following the simulator session, the Flight Standardization Board will release a report for a public comment period, followed by final approval of the training.


There was a mention of 11 in the recent testimony, not 5, and no one's named them AFAIK. The remaining 4 here are well known.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:01 pm

morrisond wrote:
According to CNBC Phil

Southwest now says April

Southwest also said they reached agreement with Boeing on grounding Compensation

Ramp up in production to 47 in March
52 in September and won't reach 57 until Spring 2021


AA is saying April 7 now
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:06 pm

morrisond wrote:
morrisond wrote:
According to CNBC Phil

Southwest now says April

Southwest also said they reached agreement with Boeing on grounding Compensation

Ramp up in production to 47 in March
52 in September and won't reach 57 until Spring 2021


AA is saying April 7 now
yeah and come January 2020 they will be saying errrr May or June.....



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sharpley
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:07 pm

morrisond wrote:

AA is saying April 7 now

Which year?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:17 pm

sharpley wrote:
morrisond wrote:

AA is saying April 7 now

Which year?


Boeing was pretty specific about RTS - sometime in 2020
 
sharpley
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:26 pm

morrisond wrote:
sharpley wrote:
morrisond wrote:

AA is saying April 7 now

Which year?


Boeing was pretty specific about RTS - sometime in 2020

Boeing were pretty specific about a Q4 2019 RTS for months.

At the end of the day an airline press release saying RTS in April 2020 isn't worth the paper its written on. Timeline is totally out of their hands, and all they can do is publish a RTS date and hope for the best... review the following month and change if necessary.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:30 pm

morrisond wrote:
morrisond wrote:
According to CNBC Phil

Southwest now says April

Southwest also said they reached agreement with Boeing on grounding Compensation

Ramp up in production to 47 in March
52 in September and won't reach 57 until Spring 2021


AA is saying April 7 now

So nearly a month after the ET302 final report is expected to be published.
But now the number "FAA key milestones" have grow to 11, so any confidence in a RTS date still look very fuzzy.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:31 pm

There were indications in the media that the pilot evaluations was completed last week. Probably per milestone-

'FAA Line Pilots Crew Workload Evaluation: A separate, multi-day simulator session with airline pilots to assess human factors and crew workload under various test conditions.'

New information, if correct, is that more problems were found adding to the delay scenario.

'...Late Thursday, trade publication The Air Current reported that the FAA's ungrounding is expected to slip into at least mid-February, in part because of pilot confusion about revised procedures on the Max during recent tests....'

Ray

Additional , The Air current reports that more than half the pilots responded to tested conditions with the wrong procedures.

Also reported that the software audit has still yet to be completed.
Last edited by XRAYretired on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:42 pm

seahawk wrote:
This silence indicates to me, that they are facing huge problems and it is not politics that keeps them grounded but real technical problems. Either the avionics can not really handle MCAS 2.0 or the stall handling without MCAS is problematic - those are imho the 2 likeliest options.

Well they did the MCAS 2.0 by June, then the bit flip was sprung on them and the FAA stated that they received their requirements in November.
If there is was some major hurdle to cross, my thought is the FAA would have said something by now, or someone would have leaked something by now, the Canada leak has shown that faulty piping is not the domain of the USA.
If the issue is training, especially since it is claimed as a WN request, they are not the largest client of the MAX, so Boeing can satisfy any WN requirements by lowering the final cost of additional frames. Now if the rest of the world is responsible for the training penalty, that has been hidden in all the WN flack and would be an A.Net revelation.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:46 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
There were indications in the media that the pilot evaluations was completed last week. Probably per milestone-

'FAA Line Pilots Crew Workload Evaluation: A separate, multi-day simulator session with airline pilots to assess human factors and crew workload under various test conditions.'

New information, if correct, is that more problems were found adding to the delay scenario.

'...Late Thursday, trade publication The Air Current reported that the FAA's ungrounding is expected to slip into at least mid-February, in part because of pilot confusion about revised procedures on the Max during recent tests....'

Ray

Wunderbar... Pilot confusion about revised procedures? A part of me is actually starting to hope Boeing takes the FAA to court for botching so much of this RTS procedure. This and the radio silence of technical details from the FAA about almost everything in the process so far is starting to be more damaging than the grounding itself.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:50 pm

smartplane wrote:
The unfortunate aspect for Boeing, is that they and the MAX have become the catalyst for airworthiness reviews, though some would say this is well deserved, and the first new build post FAA/EASA partnership is the X.

The unfortunate aspect for Boeing customers is that they continue to conduct business without a product that they made a huge financial investment and their competitors are not giving them a break.
If it was just reviews that would be one thing, but are they holding the MAX hostage to get their new regulations, is it Boeing who is resisting or the FAA?
Meantime, we still need to hear what is left to be done for the MAX to have a RTS if any....
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:55 pm

morrisond wrote:
sharpley wrote:
morrisond wrote:

AA is saying April 7 now

Which year?


Boeing was pretty specific about RTS - sometime in 2020

So did we also see a statement where Boeing has now been granted RTS authority by the FAA?
Why are we so hung up on what Boeing say's, why are we not going by what the head of the regulatory authority - FAA - says?
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:01 pm

morrisond wrote:
Yet if other Jurisdictions adopt the FAA stall training requirements from 2015 that must be completed by I think sometime next year it's not additional training. It's just taking Worldwide standards up to US levels (if they have not already done so). *Assuming* that the MAX stalls somewhat normally - remove MCAS and have any Pilot who flies the MAX complete the training before flying it with paying passengers.

. . . .

If all pilots had the training outlined in the document and assuming that the MAX is somewhat benign - would that not be a reasonable solution? Just remove MCAS and do more training?


That assumption (that the MAX stalls somewhat normally) seems to be rather iffy. And becoming more iffy by the day . . .

I agree that improved training would probably reduce some of the vulnerability of the MCAS envelope. Unfortunately, in all your posts you seem to eliminate the crucial point: any such training is type specific: MAX. It is not a world-wide pilot standard thing. It is/was a MAX thing.

For some reason Boeing doesn't seem to want to go into that direction of additoonal type-specific training (including sim sessions). I can't believe anymore that that is for cost reasons, as grounding- and associated costs are going up faster and more persistent than MCAS 1.0 could point a nose down. That itself suggests that the problem would be more fundamental, in that the unaugmented stall characteristics not so normal (for a commercial airliner) and are perhaps too difficult to release into the modern airline world.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:06 pm

morrisond wrote:
TObound wrote:
morrisond wrote:
All the delays to me seem to make the Prospect of them just ditching MCAS and specifying more stall training (Which allows the FAA to somewhat save face as they had already mandated this for US pilots anyways - if this had been the Worldwide standard they could have possibly waived MCAS in the first place) as a much more probable outcome.

I am not saying this is what will happen - but something is going on and it might not be as dire as some are speculating.


Essentially what that leaked email from the Transport Canada certified was suggesting no?

A lot of the delay can basically come down to one thing: avoiding additional training. They are all chasing their tails trying to avoid this outcome. I wish Boeing would eat the cost, get the MAX back to service and immediately launch FSA.


Yet if other Jurisdictions adopt the FAA stall training requirements from 2015 that must be completed by I think sometime next year it's not additional training. It's just taking Worldwide standards up to US levels (if they have not already done so). Assuming that the MAX stalls somewhat normally - remove MCAS and have any Pilot who flies the MAX complete the training before flying it with paying passengers.

The document outlines doing it in SIMS or also actual airplanes (of course without Passengers). I'm sure there are a few MAX's around that Boeing could dedicate to this.

This reg seems to have resulted from the findings of most of the fatal accidents in the past 10 years.

From the Document: https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/med ... 0-109A.pdf

1-1. GENERAL. Based on accident review, a concern exists within the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) and industry regarding loss of control in-flight (LOC-I) accidents and
incidents. A recurring causal factor in LOC-I accidents and incidents is the pilot’s inappropriate
reaction to impending stalls and full stalls. Evidence exists that some pilots are failing to avoid
conditions that may lead to a stall, or are failing to recognize the insidious onset of an impending
stall during routine operations in both manual and automatic flight. Evidence also exists that
some pilots may not have the required skills or training to respond appropriately to an
unexpected stall. Stall training should always emphasize reduction of angle of attack (AOA) as
the most important response when confronted with an impending or full stall. This advisory
circular (AC) provides best practices on training, testing, and checking of impending stalls and
training of full stalls, including recommended recovery procedures.

c. Envelope-Protected Airplanes. Envelope-protected airplanes have, in general,
demonstrated a lower rate of stall accidents and incidents; however, the rate is not zero. Stall
accidents and incidents in envelope-protected airplanes typically occur when the protections
have failed, requiring the pilot to return the aircraft to safe flight using a degraded flight control
mode. As such, it is important to carefully develop the stall prevention and recovery training for
envelope-protected aircraft so that (1) the failure path(s) to reach the degraded modes are
understood, (2) pilots learn to identify the rarely occurring impending or full stalls, and (3) pilots
demonstrate they have the skill to return the aircraft to safe flight with the degraded flight control
laws. Although the potential failures that lead to degraded modes must be understood by pilots,
handling multiple failures should not be a component of maneuver-based stall training. The
simulator should be placed in a degraded mode by the instructor, clearing all warnings and
cautions associated with the failures before the stall training begins. Training providers should
seek manufacture guidance for preferred methods of placing the simulator in degraded modes.

If all pilots had the training outlined in the document and assuming that the MAX is somewhat benign - would that not be a reasonable solution? Just remove MCAS and do more training?


That would be a solution. But it would mean recurring training cost. And this what Boeing and their customers don't want. Remember the MAX was sold as easily trainable for NG crews. An afternoon with an iPad. If they have to actually do SIM training or flying, even if it's a few days, this changes the cost of inducting that fleet.

I agree that this is what Boeing should be compelled to do, if they don't want to pay for and engineer an aero fix.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:08 pm

American just sent out another Max travel waiver... waiver now extended until 6 Apr 2020

It had been set to expire on 4 Mar 2020 :(
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:39 pm

kalvado wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
And no, with only 2 crashes you can't reliably make that calculation.

Problem is that you need to act based on data on hand. So crash history is not interpreted as random independent tests; underlying mechanisms are analyzed and conclusions are made based on much more detailed information than random tests would allow.
ANd based on those mechanisms - MAX has some serious issues, making it unsafe. No need to invoke statistics 101.


I've taken flight safety courses and done certification work. The kind of logic and bias he's shown would absolutely not be allowed. It's terrifying to think he's actually an engineer and signing off on work somewhere.

I can't believe, "Let's just wait till we kill another 150 pax." is supposed to be a serious suggestion on an aviation forum.

I wish people who made such suggestions told me where they worked. I'd like to maintain a wide radius near anything they've touched.
 
KingOrGod
Posts: 191
Joined: Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:41 pm

TObound wrote:
kalvado wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
And no, with only 2 crashes you can't reliably make that calculation.

Problem is that you need to act based on data on hand. So crash history is not interpreted as random independent tests; underlying mechanisms are analyzed and conclusions are made based on much more detailed information than random tests would allow.
ANd based on those mechanisms - MAX has some serious issues, making it unsafe. No need to invoke statistics 101.


I've taken flight safety courses and done certification work. The kind of logic and bias he's shown would absolutely not be allowed. It's terrifying to think he's actually an engineer and signing off on work somewhere.

I can't believe, "Let's just wait till we kill another 150 pax." is supposed to be a serious suggestion on an aviation forum.

I wish people who made such suggestions told me where they worked. I'd like to maintain a wide radius near anything they've touched.


Agreed. A VERY wide radius.

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