Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
checklist350
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:01 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
checklist350 wrote:
Because the FAA's mission is also furthering American aviation, and Boeing needs to be protected against themselves. A staged ungrounding would de facto mean a US-only model, eliminating 90% of orders. Or accepting (most likely hardware) changes in which the FAA has no say.

The FAA finally realised global RTS is the best, and in fact only way forward to get the MAX accepted worldwide again. It's a real shame Boeing still doesn't realise this. And some posters here.


That doesn't answer my question. Where did this new found trust for the FAA come from? For months everyone has been saying that Boeing and the FAA could no longer be trusted. Why the sudden change of heart for the FAA?


This works both ways: FAA gets a say on the final solution / demands, and the other regulators get to check the FAA by working together. I really fail to see how a global RTS is a sign of trust in the FAA. It's the exact opposite.
 
AirbusCanada
Posts: 647
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2004 5:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:02 pm

Possible Suspension or Cutting Back 737 MAX Production predicted by WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-wei ... 1576448990

Boeing signaled to U.S. aviation officials last week that it anticipates a production-related announcement this week amounting to at least a significant rollback of MAX output, one of these people said.

The board deliberations, which were slated to last through Monday, have taken on more urgency following a meeting last week between Boeing Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg and Federal Aviation Administration chief Steve Dickson that reset the likely timetable for certification to February or beyond, according to the people familiar with the matter.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1452
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:06 pm

I said 6 weeks ago that Boeing should cancel the MAX, revert to the NG for 4 years, and commit to the NSA ASAP.

Their leadership vacuum has them paralyzed. The future of the company is in doubt, and yes, many employees are going to pay a price.
 
checklist350
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:06 pm

AirbusCanada wrote:
Possible Suspension or Cutting Back 737 MAX Production predicted by WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-wei ... 1576448990

Boeing signaled to U.S. aviation officials last week that it anticipates a production-related announcement this week amounting to at least a significant rollback of MAX output, one of these people said.

The board deliberations, which were slated to last through Monday, have taken on more urgency following a meeting last week between Boeing Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg and Federal Aviation Administration chief Steve Dickson that reset the likely timetable for certification to February or beyond, according to the people familiar with the matter.


Maybe you'd like to read the last 150+ posts before posting 'news'...
 
User avatar
PW100
Posts: 4123
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:11 pm

morrisond wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
morrisond wrote:
not being able to identify a stall even with light controls

"Not being able to identify a stall" is a red herring. If you can not understand that, the rest of your elaborations are useless. I challenge you to find one reasonable source, that says MCAS serves the purpose to "identify a stall".

And if you want a source:

"MCAS is a longitudinal stability enhancement. It is not for stall prevention (although indirectly it helps) or to make the MAX handle like the NG (although it does); it was introduced to counteract the non-linear lift generated by the LEAP-1B engine nacelles at high AoA and give a steady increase in stick force as the stall is approached as required by regulation."

From http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm


How about a more authoritive source . . . :

JATR Final Report wrote:
Observation O3.4-B: Extension of MCAS to the low-speed and 1g environment during the flight program WAS DUE TO UNACCEPTABLE STALL CHARACTERISTICS WITH STS ONLY.



The idea of operating Max without some sort of MCAS seems to be rather wishful thinking . . .
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:11 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
Morrisond, ask yourself the question why equally good trained pilots caused the MAX to have such horrible safety statistics (red in the diagram below) but on all the other aircraft the same pilots contribute to the fact, that aviation globally is the safest mean of transportation (green in the diagram below)?

Image

morrisond wrote:
Everyone is allowed to have there own interpretation and beliefs on what needs to be fixed.

What room for interpretation remains if one factor in these crashes demonstrably dominates any other with huge prevalence?

These pilots were expected to crash the MAX roughly 30 times less frequent than they did (as benchmarked by all the other aircraft). The thing that needs to be fixed should not be based on interpretation or believe. You can look at the diagram to see where the focus needs to be. By fixing the MAX, we get basically back the excellent ~100 fatalities per trillion RPK without any improvement in any other area.

If all that does not convince you, I am thinking about illustrating the "260 times worse factor" with some diagrams to explain it better to you...

morrisond wrote:
And if you want a source:

"MCAS is a longitudinal stability enhancement. It is not for stall prevention (although indirectly it helps) or to make the MAX handle like the NG (although it does); it was introduced to counteract the non-linear lift generated by the LEAP-1B engine nacelles at high AoA and give a steady increase in stick force as the stall is approached as required by regulation."

From http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm

I can't see a hint in that source, that MCAS is about "being able to identify a stall". So please stop posting that (or provide another source).


When have I ever said the MAX doesn't need to be fixed?

MCAS was instituted as the controls need to have an linear increase in stick force to help pilots identify they are approaching stall.
 
Spetsnaz55
Posts: 229
Joined: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:38 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:12 pm

SteelChair wrote:
I said 6 weeks ago that Boeing should cancel the MAX, revert to the NG for 4 years, and commit to the NSA ASAP.

Their leadership vacuum has them paralyzed. The future of the company is in doubt, and yes, many employees are going to pay a price.



What you said 6 weeks ago is ridiculous and will never happen and same applies today. To every single person that thinks Boeing will go back to building NG aircraft, they need to get back to reality
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4854
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:14 pm

It is amazing that people can still support Boeing over actual safety. Boeing is large enough to survive the MAX this will be harder on airlines who bet heavy on them.

United was so smart to get used 737-700s that were compatable and cheap. They saw the writing on the wall here.

You won't see me on a MAX. I don't want to see what else Boeing decided to cut corners on to finish faster that has yet to surface.
 
checklist350
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:15 pm

PW100 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
And if you want a source:

"MCAS is a longitudinal stability enhancement. It is not for stall prevention (although indirectly it helps) or to make the MAX handle like the NG (although it does); it was introduced to counteract the non-linear lift generated by the LEAP-1B engine nacelles at high AoA and give a steady increase in stick force as the stall is approached as required by regulation."

From http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm


How about a more authoritive source . . . :

JATR Final Report wrote:
Observation O3.4-B: Extension of MCAS to the low-speed and 1g environment during the flight program WAS DUE TO UNACCEPTABLE STALL CHARACTERISTICS WITH STS ONLY.



The idea of operating Max without some sort of MCAS seems to be rather wishful thinking . . .


...But the website has .org behind it so it must be neutral and true.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:16 pm

PW100 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
"Not being able to identify a stall" is a red herring. If you can not understand that, the rest of your elaborations are useless. I challenge you to find one reasonable source, that says MCAS serves the purpose to "identify a stall".

And if you want a source:

"MCAS is a longitudinal stability enhancement. It is not for stall prevention (although indirectly it helps) or to make the MAX handle like the NG (although it does); it was introduced to counteract the non-linear lift generated by the LEAP-1B engine nacelles at high AoA and give a steady increase in stick force as the stall is approached as required by regulation."

From http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm


How about a more authoritive source . . . :

JATR Final Report wrote:
Observation O3.4-B: Extension of MCAS to the low-speed and 1g environment during the flight program WAS DUE TO UNACCEPTABLE STALL CHARACTERISTICS WITH STS ONLY.



The idea of operating Max without some sort of MCAS seems to be rather wishful thinking . . .


And that is the big unknown - whether or not the controls just got too light at low speed and the 1G environment or the MAX does have some bad habits as it approaches stall and why EASA is rightfully asking for testing without MCAS.

That's a good idea. Controls getting too light can fall under "UNACCEPTABLE STALL CHARACTERISTICS" as well.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1452
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:18 pm

Spetsnaz55 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
I said 6 weeks ago that Boeing should cancel the MAX, revert to the NG for 4 years, and commit to the NSA ASAP.

Their leadership vacuum has them paralyzed. The future of the company is in doubt, and yes, many employees are going to pay a price.



What you said 6 weeks ago is ridiculous and will never happen and same applies today. To every single person that thinks Boeing will go back to building NG aircraft, they need to get back to reality


Well it certainly appears that 737 production is about to be suspended, so that leaves them with.....nothing.

Full on crisis. Denial doesn't help.
 
rheinwaldner
Posts: 1865
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:20 pm

morrisond wrote:
MCAS was instituted as the controls need to have an linear increase in stick force to help pilots identify they are approaching stall.

About the first 15 words I agree. The second part ("to help pilots identify they are approaching stall") is your invention. I have not seen it mentioned anywhere as the reason why the respective FAR exist. Therefore please provide any source or stop claiming that.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
User avatar
PW100
Posts: 4123
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:21 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
That doesn't answer my question. Where did this new found trust for the FAA come from? For months everyone has been saying that Boeing and the FAA could no longer be trusted. Why the sudden change of heart for the FAA?


Wouldn't such be a first/natural step in rebuilding that very trust?
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1452
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:22 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
It is amazing that people can still support Boeing over actual safety. Boeing is large enough to survive the MAX this will be harder on airlines who bet heavy on them.

United was so smart to get used 737-700s that were compatable and cheap. They saw the writing on the wall here.

You won't see me on a MAX. I don't want to see what else Boeing decided to cut corners on to finish faster that has yet to surface.


Shhhhh. Because 'Merica. Because innocent employees may lose their jobs. Because Boeing is too big to fail. Because Boeing = virtue.

Except they're not. Total corporate makeover needed. They just continue to delay the inevitable and the delay just makes things worse.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:23 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
morrisond wrote:
MCAS was instituted as the controls need to have an linear increase in stick force to help pilots identify they are approaching stall.

About the first 15 words I agree. The second part ("to help pilots identify they are approaching stall") is your invention. I have not seen it mentioned anywhere as the reason why the respective FAR exist. Therefore please provide any source or stop claiming that.


So what else is it there for? It will not prevent a stall - you can still pull through it.

I think we are getting caught up in Language.
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 4189
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:24 pm

par13del wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
olle wrote:

To avoid the negative press coverage, I wouldn’t do this. Even if they would produce only two airframes per month...

Negative press coverage for who, Boeing, the FAA?
The only people who have not seen negative press coverage on Boeing and the FAA since March-2019 are those living under a rock and those who refuse to watch what takes place on Capital Hill.
The door has long since closed on that option.

For Boeing, of course. Well, I should have posted „to avoid EVEN MORE negative press coverage. Heck, even in the restaurant of my organization during lunch break I hear people at the other table talking about the Max. „So you are going on holiday? Oh, great. But make sure you are not traveling on a Boeing 737 max“, conversations like this....

But I guess you are correct, it wouldn’t help. Since our press is desperately looking for bad news, they would also report about a significant production slowdown.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:25 pm

PW100 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
That doesn't answer my question. Where did this new found trust for the FAA come from? For months everyone has been saying that Boeing and the FAA could no longer be trusted. Why the sudden change of heart for the FAA?


Wouldn't such be a first/natural step in rebuilding that very trust?


No, those countries should do as they claimed they would and start certifying planes on their own again. The FAA should do the same for Embraer, Airbus, Bombardier, Dassault, Aérospatiale, etc.
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:27 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
That doesn't answer my question. Where did this new found trust for the FAA come from? For months everyone has been saying that Boeing and the FAA could no longer be trusted. Why the sudden change of heart for the FAA?

If Boeing has completed every item to the FAA's requirements then I think an interesting legal battle may follow. Keeping an airplane that satisfies the FAA's requirements grounded just because they want a global RTS may very well be beyond the FAA's scope. That would be like the FDA forbidding a prescription drug that meets their standards from being sold because not every pharmacy wants to carry it.


I think the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" principle applies here. That is the elephant in the room. There's a reason this thread generally goes quiet when the sun is shining directly over the Pacific Ocean. The change between the FAA being completely untrustworthy to now being unquestioned is noticeable.
 
MartijnNL
Posts: 999
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:44 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:34 pm

IWMBH wrote:
I don't know what you've been smoking but I want some. There is no NSA and even if they start development today it will be years before it is ready to fly. Scrapping 400 brand-new planes is just insane and all the engines that have been built for the MAX will be instantly worthless. No to think of all the workers Boeing has to fire in the bridge years where no 737's are built. There is no way this will ever happen.

It’s all a matter of perspective. To me the design of the MAX itself and MCAS is insane. And to keep building over 40 a month after the grounding is insane too. Boeing better start building 737 NG’s again, forget about the MAX and design a new aircraft to really replace the 737. They probably could have done it with the amount of money the MAX debacle is costing.
 
User avatar
PW100
Posts: 4123
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:40 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
PW100 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
That doesn't answer my question. Where did this new found trust for the FAA come from? For months everyone has been saying that Boeing and the FAA could no longer be trusted. Why the sudden change of heart for the FAA?


Wouldn't such be a first/natural step in rebuilding that very trust?


No, those countries should do as they claimed they would and start certifying planes on their own again. The FAA should do the same for Embraer, Airbus, Bombardier, Dassault, Aérospatiale, etc.


??? Why introduce "those countries" when they were not part of the original question?

You asked: Where did this new found trust for the FAA come from?

The new found trust hasn't been completed. It's usually a long way.
In my country we have this saying: trust leaves by horse, arrives by foot.

But anyway, FAA going it alone may be sending the wrong signal in rebuilding that trust. Especially, when the rest of the world has requirements that FAA had waived . . .
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
User avatar
PW100
Posts: 4123
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:42 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
That doesn't answer my question. Where did this new found trust for the FAA come from? For months everyone has been saying that Boeing and the FAA could no longer be trusted. Why the sudden change of heart for the FAA?

If Boeing has completed every item to the FAA's requirements then I think an interesting legal battle may follow. Keeping an airplane that satisfies the FAA's requirements grounded just because they want a global RTS may very well be beyond the FAA's scope. That would be like the FDA forbidding a prescription drug that meets their standards from being sold because not every pharmacy wants to carry it.


I think the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" principle applies here. That is the elephant in the room. There's a reason this thread generally goes quiet when the sun is shining directly over the Pacific Ocean. The change between the FAA being completely untrustworthy to now being unquestioned is noticeable.


I did not realize that US congress was on the other side of the Pacific as well . . .
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:47 pm

oschkosch wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I don't think that removing MCAS has been clearly ruled out yet. The AVCanada employee would most likely not have mentioned it in an eternal email if it was not theoretically possible.

I think a plausible scenario is that Boeing is contemplating going down the MCAS removal route and they are leaking the possibility of a line shutdown to put pressure on regulators (through the political process) to allow a RTS without MCAS.


lol. So together with mcas removal they will also be using downgraded engines, i.e. building the 737NG again, or what are you attempting to say?


Bjorn Fehrm speculated that aft lower fuselage strakes could be an option to aerodynamically provide the desired behavior. In level flight, the drag should be small, but there still would be a lifetime cost impact to an approach like that.

Just throwing out half-educated guesses here, but perhaps fitting a CFM56-7 sized fan on LEAP and reverting to the former engine location would cost 5% additional fuel consumption, while strakes might be 1-2%. If so, that would strongly favor a feature like a strake change over the engine modification. I suspect development and certification schedule would also favor the same path.

That said, I'm skeptical removing MCAS and resolving handling concerns another way is necessary. If anything this drastic was necessary, then either it should have been clearly communicated already by the FAA, EASA, or other agency, or it must be a new determination, such as from the simulator sessions. To be clear, I'm aware of the EASA questions, and I presume Boeing has been engaged in regular, detailed discussions with them ever since, so any new determination related to them contrary to Boeing's current plan in work would be a major surprise to me.

Since the reporting on the simulator sessions revolves around clarity of the cockpit information and the crew training and response, it still appears to me unlikely that any agency has indicate to Boeing an intention to withhold certification until the intention of MCAS can be fulfilled without MCAS.

At the same time, I'm not going to waste any mental effort imaging scenarios under which any agency would certify the MAX with the current aerodynamics, but without MCAS. The crashes have only heightened, not diminished the concern of risks like less-than-linear column force approaching stall.

morrisond wrote:
BTW - you can still stall a MAX even with MCAS 1.0 or 2.0. It will not stop it from happening if you are determined. It is not Envelope protection.


Perhaps we need a new term. How about "envelope encouragement?" :D
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10408
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:52 pm

PW100 wrote:
The idea of operating Max without some sort of MCAS seems to be rather wishful thinking . . .

So EASA request is for.........
 
checklist350
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:53 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
That doesn't answer my question. Where did this new found trust for the FAA come from? For months everyone has been saying that Boeing and the FAA could no longer be trusted. Why the sudden change of heart for the FAA?

If Boeing has completed every item to the FAA's requirements then I think an interesting legal battle may follow. Keeping an airplane that satisfies the FAA's requirements grounded just because they want a global RTS may very well be beyond the FAA's scope. That would be like the FDA forbidding a prescription drug that meets their standards from being sold because not every pharmacy wants to carry it.


I think the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" principle applies here. That is the elephant in the room. There's a reason this thread generally goes quiet when the sun is shining directly over the Pacific Ocean. The change between the FAA being completely untrustworthy to now being unquestioned is noticeable.


Unquestioned FAA recertification is exactly the diametrically opposite to a global effort based on consensus finding. But consensus is an alien concept to many Americans so it seems. We already have two examples in this very thread.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:57 pm

checklist350 wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
That doesn't answer my question. Where did this new found trust for the FAA come from? For months everyone has been saying that Boeing and the FAA could no longer be trusted. Why the sudden change of heart for the FAA?

If Boeing has completed every item to the FAA's requirements then I think an interesting legal battle may follow. Keeping an airplane that satisfies the FAA's requirements grounded just because they want a global RTS may very well be beyond the FAA's scope. That would be like the FDA forbidding a prescription drug that meets their standards from being sold because not every pharmacy wants to carry it.


I think the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" principle applies here. That is the elephant in the room. There's a reason this thread generally goes quiet when the sun is shining directly over the Pacific Ocean. The change between the FAA being completely untrustworthy to now being unquestioned is noticeable.


Unquestioned FAA recertification is exactly the diametrically opposite to a global effort based on consensus finding. But consensus is an alien concept to many Americans so it seems. We already have two examples in this very thread.


What are you going on about? No one has said the FAA can't be questioned. In fact I said the opposite, I said all of the other aviation authorities around the world should recertify the Max themselves. The FAA has an obligation to the US. If the Max redesign has met the requirements they imposed then I can't see any reason for them not to lift the grounding in the US and get all Max owned by US airlines updated and back in service.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10408
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:59 pm

PW100 wrote:
But anyway, FAA going it alone may be sending the wrong signal in rebuilding that trust. Especially, when the rest of the world has requirements that FAA had waived . . .

Which comes first, the trust of the citizens of the nation whose aviation industry they are supposed to regulate, or the trust of the nations who purchase the bulk of Boeing's products?
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24851
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:03 pm

nine4nine wrote:
Boeing should close the 737 line and end the program where it’s at, take the black eyes and the big financial hit. One more crash of a MAX would probably be the final nail in Boeing’s coffin and perhaps put them under. The safe bet would be to end it and work on the replacement first and foremost and let the engineers bring back innovation and cutting edge development.

As if that is free of risk -- what if Boeing accepts the loss of 4,500 MAX orders and all that comes with, and then that innovative cutting edge development ends up with an misunderstood flaw that causes it to crash? Isn't it less risky to do whatever it takes to get to MAX's RTS, cash in on its backlog, and then move forward with NSA?

SteelChair wrote:
I said 6 weeks ago that Boeing should cancel the MAX, revert to the NG for 4 years, and commit to the NSA ASAP.

Their leadership vacuum has them paralyzed. The future of the company is in doubt, and yes, many employees are going to pay a price.

No customer wants NGs any more and no customer wants to wait four years (or more) for a NSA.

If they were willing to keep buying NGs and wait four years or more for a NSA there would have been no MAX to begin with.

They weren't willing to wait four years or more while their competitors enjoyed ~15% better economics, just to take on the risk that a clean sheet entails, along with the slow delivery ramp up.
Last edited by Revelation on Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10408
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:05 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
What are you going on about? No one has said the FAA can't be questioned. In fact I said the opposite, I said all of the other aviation authorities around the world should recertify the Max themselves. The FAA has an obligation to the US. If the Max redesign has met the requirements they imposed then I can't see any reason for them not to lift the grounding in the US and get all Max owned by US airlines updated and back in service.

Many different standard exist between the USA and other countries, so not too difficult a concept.
 
checklist350
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:08 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
checklist350 wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

I think the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" principle applies here. That is the elephant in the room. There's a reason this thread generally goes quiet when the sun is shining directly over the Pacific Ocean. The change between the FAA being completely untrustworthy to now being unquestioned is noticeable.


Unquestioned FAA recertification is exactly the diametrically opposite to a global effort based on consensus finding. But consensus is an alien concept to many Americans so it seems. We already have two examples in this very thread.


What are you going on about? No one has said the FAA can't be questioned. In fact I said the opposite, I said all of the other aviation authorities around the world should recertify the Max themselves. The FAA has an obligation to the US. If the Max redesign has met the requirements they imposed then I can't see any reason for them not to lift the grounding in the US and get all Max owned by US airlines updated and back in service.


MSPNWA is somehow equating a global recertification to FAA being unquestioned as this has been the only discussion at hand right now regarding the FAA. Seems you have reading apprehension issues as it was literally mentioned in the post I responded too, which was an indirect response to my post.
Last edited by checklist350 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:11 pm

checklist350 wrote:
Unquestioned FAA recertification is exactly the diametrically opposite to a global effort based on consensus finding. But consensus is an alien concept to many Americans so it seems. We already have two examples in this very thread.


1) You completely missed what my post was talking about.

2) No one is advocating "unquestioned" FAA re-cert, so you can take down your straw man. Your nationality bias is also undermining your credibility.

3) You're essentially advocating that regulatory bodies should ultimately rule with subjective global opinions over their own written rules and regulations. The aviation world is in trouble if that is the direction people want.

checklist350 wrote:
This works both ways: FAA gets a say on the final solution / demands, and the other regulators get to check the FAA by working together. I really fail to see how a global RTS is a sign of trust in the FAA. It's the exact opposite.


Then how is the FAA ever going to earn trust? You can't have it both ways. Your argument is illogical. You can't have the world subvert U.S. authority and ultimately decide when the MAX returns and at the same time wish that the FAA gains trust. My suspicion is that you don't care if the FAA ever has trust and control over their certification again.

I guess it needs to be said again. The only way the FAA "regains trust" is if stands on its own feet and is clear that ultimately they alone decide whether to allow the MAX back into the air. That doesn't mean they don't talk with others. But it does mean they control the decision, and if that means there's a disagreement that will not be solved, so be it. There's more than one way to globally release the MAX, unlike what you've wrongly claimed. Whether it's unacceptable to some doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
Last edited by MSPNWA on Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
rheinwaldner
Posts: 1865
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:14 pm

morrisond wrote:
So what else is it there for?

Sully mentioned "not fooling muscle memory". Point is, no other anti stall system serves the purpose MCAS serves. MCAS does not "help pilots identify they are approaching stall". Please stop claiming that.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
checklist350
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:17 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
checklist350 wrote:
Unquestioned FAA recertification is exactly the diametrically opposite to a global effort based on consensus finding. But consensus is an alien concept to many Americans so it seems. We already have two examples in this very thread.


1) You completely missed what my post was talking about.

2) No one is advocating "unquestioned" FAA re-cert, so you can take down your straw man. Your nationality bias is also undermining your credibility.

3) You're essentially advocating that regulatory bodies should ultimately rule with subjective global opinions over their own written rules and regulations. The aviation world is in trouble if that is the direction people want.

checklist350 wrote:
This works both ways: FAA gets a say on the final solution / demands, and the other regulators get to check the FAA by working together. I really fail to see how a global RTS is a sign of trust in the FAA. It's the exact opposite.


Then how is the FAA ever going to earn trust? You can't have it both ways. Your argument is illogical. You can't have the world subvert U.S. authority and ultimately decide when the MAX returns and at the same time wish that the FAA gains trust.

Based on your posts, it doesn't seem you care

I guess it needs to be said again. The only way the FAA "regains trust" is if stands on its own feet and is clear that ultimately they alone decide whether to allow the MAX back into the air. That doesn't mean they don't talk with others. But it does mean they control the decision, and if that means there's a disagreement that will not be solved, so be it. There's more than one way to globally release the MAX, unlike what you've wrongly claimed.


Regaining trust is a matter of years not months. Right now that trust simply isn't there hence the coordinated effort. I suggest you accept that and forgo the strawman argument yourself regarding unquestioned behaviour.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:25 pm

checklist350 wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
checklist350 wrote:
Unquestioned FAA recertification is exactly the diametrically opposite to a global effort based on consensus finding. But consensus is an alien concept to many Americans so it seems. We already have two examples in this very thread.


1) You completely missed what my post was talking about.

2) No one is advocating "unquestioned" FAA re-cert, so you can take down your straw man. Your nationality bias is also undermining your credibility.

3) You're essentially advocating that regulatory bodies should ultimately rule with subjective global opinions over their own written rules and regulations. The aviation world is in trouble if that is the direction people want.

checklist350 wrote:
This works both ways: FAA gets a say on the final solution / demands, and the other regulators get to check the FAA by working together. I really fail to see how a global RTS is a sign of trust in the FAA. It's the exact opposite.


Then how is the FAA ever going to earn trust? You can't have it both ways. Your argument is illogical. You can't have the world subvert U.S. authority and ultimately decide when the MAX returns and at the same time wish that the FAA gains trust.

Based on your posts, it doesn't seem you care

I guess it needs to be said again. The only way the FAA "regains trust" is if stands on its own feet and is clear that ultimately they alone decide whether to allow the MAX back into the air. That doesn't mean they don't talk with others. But it does mean they control the decision, and if that means there's a disagreement that will not be solved, so be it. There's more than one way to globally release the MAX, unlike what you've wrongly claimed.


Regaining trust is a matter of years not months. Right now that trust simply isn't there hence the coordinated effort. I suggest you accept that and forgo the strawman argument yourself regarding unquestioned behaviour.


My issue is that the FAA has told us pretty much nothing. They are being extremely vague. They have an obligation to keep us informed. This is not some secret military project. We need a timelone and there needs to be consequences if that timeline isn't adhered to. A country like China that is currently playing games with us should not determine when the Max gets to fly again. Transport Canada has been very open and willing to work with all parties. They are the example that everyone else should follow in this situation. They are an asset and would have no issue with the FAA giving all of their needs the utmost consideration. But some countries that are complaining about components that have been on the 737 since it's inception and have proven themselves reliable are just making noise and are a distraction.
 
checklist350
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:32 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
My issue is that the FAA has told us pretty much nothing. They are being extremely vague. They have an obligation to keep us informed. This is not some secret military project. We need a timelone and there needs to be consequences if that timeline isn't adhered to. A country like China that is currently playing games with us should not determine when the Max gets to fly again. Transport Canada has been very open and willing to work with all parties. They are the example that everyone else should follow in this situation. They are an asset and would have no issue with the FAA giving all of their needs the utmost consideration. But some countries that are complaining about components that have been on the 737 since it's inception and have proven themselves reliable are just making noise and are a distraction.


Can you point us to the exact law or regulation that stipulates their duty to keep us informed of their advances during a (re)certification process?
Last edited by checklist350 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1452
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:33 pm

Revelation wrote:

SteelChair wrote:
I said 6 weeks ago that Boeing should cancel the MAX, revert to the NG for 4 years, and commit to the NSA ASAP.

Their leadership vacuum has them paralyzed. The future of the company is in doubt, and yes, many employees are going to pay a price.

No customer wants NGs any more and no customer wants to wait four years (or more) for a NSA.

If they were willing to keep buying NGs and wait four years or more for a NSA there would have been no MAX to begin with.

They weren't willing to wait four years or more while their competitors enjoyed ~15% better economics, just to take on the risk that a clean sheet entails, along with the slow delivery ramp up.


They may not have a choice.
 
Breathe
Posts: 715
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:35 pm

CNBC has just tweeted this:

BREAKING: Boeing to suspend 737 MAX production in January - DJ


https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1206688706347843585
 
morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:36 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
morrisond wrote:
So what else is it there for?

Sully mentioned "not fooling muscle memory". Point is, no other anti stall system serves the purpose MCAS serves. MCAS does not "help pilots identify they are approaching stall". Please stop claiming that.


Sully is right - it's a good thing to not fool muscle memory - the Pilot notices that the controls are getting really heavy - Gee maybe I shouldn't be doing that - wait a second I'm getting close to stall the stick is shaking and the audio alarms are going off - MCAS helped me identify that fact.

As someone else mentioned up thread - it's a stall discouragement device - but it is not an "Anti-Stall" device. It would have to act continuously to be an anti-stall device and even then it may not be fast enough to offset what input the Pilots could make with the Yoke.

Does that make more sense?
 
morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:39 pm

Breathe wrote:
CNBC has just tweeted this:

BREAKING: Boeing to suspend 737 MAX production in January - DJ


https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1206688706347843585


Not confirmed by Boeing yet - "No Comment" was their response.

At least we may finally get a peak behind the curtain as they will have to discuss the reasons behind this.

They did suspend production for 50 days in 2008 during the Machinists strike so it is not unprecedented.
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4342
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:41 pm

I wonder if a stop in production means just not assembling the aircraft - so parts suppliers and Spirit will keep pumping out parts but just storing them. Or, if that means a complete shutdown of the supply chain?
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19303
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:41 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
My issue is that the FAA has told us pretty much nothing. They are being extremely vague. They have an obligation to keep us informed. This is not some secret military project. We need a timelone and there needs to be consequences if that timeline isn't adhered to. A country like China that is currently playing games with us should not determine when the Max gets to fly again. Transport Canada has been very open and willing to work with all parties. They are the example that everyone else should follow in this situation. They are an asset and would have no issue with the FAA giving all of their needs the utmost consideration. But some countries that are complaining about components that have been on the 737 since it's inception and have proven themselves reliable are just making noise and are a distraction.


What obligation does the FAA have to keep you informed?

Why do you need a timeline? How can you put a timeline to something that keeps changing the more you delve into it? What consequences should there be?

AFAICS, the FAA only needs to keep their political masters and Boeing up to date, it’s then up to Boeing to communicate with it’s customers and the public. But then Boeing keeps adding there “expectations” as to when RTS will happen (and they’ve been wrong every time so far!)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24851
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:42 pm

Breathe wrote:
CNBC has just tweeted this:

BREAKING: Boeing to suspend 737 MAX production in January - DJ


https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1206688706347843585

WSJ has a similar report:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-to- ... 1576532032
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
checklist350
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
My issue is that the FAA has told us pretty much nothing. They are being extremely vague. They have an obligation to keep us informed. This is not some secret military project. We need a timelone and there needs to be consequences if that timeline isn't adhered to. A country like China that is currently playing games with us should not determine when the Max gets to fly again. Transport Canada has been very open and willing to work with all parties. They are the example that everyone else should follow in this situation. They are an asset and would have no issue with the FAA giving all of their needs the utmost consideration. But some countries that are complaining about components that have been on the 737 since it's inception and have proven themselves reliable are just making noise and are a distraction.


What obligation does the FAA have to keep you informed?

Why do you need a timeline? How can you put a timeline to something that keeps changing the more you delve into it? What consequences should there be?

AFAICS, the FAA only needs to keep their political masters and Boeing up to date, it’s then up to Boeing to communicate with it’s customers and the public. But then Boeing keeps adding there “expectations” as to when RTS will happen (and they’ve been wrong every time so far!)


Yes, instead of simply communicating where they stand, they kept claiming a roadmap to RTS as if they were the ones in the driver's seat.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24851
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:46 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
I wonder if a stop in production means just not assembling the aircraft - so parts suppliers and Spirit will keep pumping out parts but just storing them. Or, if that means a complete shutdown of the supply chain?

The idea would be for Boeing to conserve cash i.e. stop spending it on building airplanes it is not allowed to sell.

Also I doubt they have room to stockpile parts very long if at all.

So my guess is that this a shutdown of the entire supply chain.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:46 pm

No workers are being Furloughed which is a good thing - CNBC
 
ACATROYAL
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 11:25 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:48 pm

Wow so now Boeing is going to suspend production of the Max in January, things just keep going from bad to worse for Boeing
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 357
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:28 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:49 pm

morrisond wrote:
No workers are being Furloughed which is a good thing - CNBC


Is that just at Boeing though, what about suppliers? This could have a devastating domino effect.
Last edited by ShamrockBoi330 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ACATROYAL
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 11:25 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:52 pm

If they are not assembling them then sooner or later suppliers will have to stop production as well..
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:55 pm

scbriml wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
My issue is that the FAA has told us pretty much nothing. They are being extremely vague. They have an obligation to keep us informed. This is not some secret military project. We need a timelone and there needs to be consequences if that timeline isn't adhered to. A country like China that is currently playing games with us should not determine when the Max gets to fly again. Transport Canada has been very open and willing to work with all parties. They are the example that everyone else should follow in this situation. They are an asset and would have no issue with the FAA giving all of their needs the utmost consideration. But some countries that are complaining about components that have been on the 737 since it's inception and have proven themselves reliable are just making noise and are a distraction.


What obligation does the FAA have to keep you informed?

Why do you need a timeline? How can you put a timeline to something that keeps changing the more you delve into it? What consequences should there be?

AFAICS, the FAA only needs to keep their political masters and Boeing up to date, it’s then up to Boeing to communicate with it’s customers and the public. But then Boeing keeps adding there “expectations” as to when RTS will happen (and they’ve been wrong every time so far!)


Well then the FAA shouldn't be mad if they do that want to update us and choose to leave it up to Boeing. And in the US we do have freedom of information from our government agencies.
 
XRAYretired
Posts: 870
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:21 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:56 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
checklist350 wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

1) You completely missed what my post was talking about.

2) No one is advocating "unquestioned" FAA re-cert, so you can take down your straw man. Your nationality bias is also undermining your credibility.

3) You're essentially advocating that regulatory bodies should ultimately rule with subjective global opinions over their own written rules and regulations. The aviation world is in trouble if that is the direction people want.



Then how is the FAA ever going to earn trust? You can't have it both ways. Your argument is illogical. You can't have the world subvert U.S. authority and ultimately decide when the MAX returns and at the same time wish that the FAA gains trust.

Based on your posts, it doesn't seem you care

I guess it needs to be said again. The only way the FAA "regains trust" is if stands on its own feet and is clear that ultimately they alone decide whether to allow the MAX back into the air. That doesn't mean they don't talk with others. But it does mean they control the decision, and if that means there's a disagreement that will not be solved, so be it. There's more than one way to globally release the MAX, unlike what you've wrongly claimed.


Regaining trust is a matter of years not months. Right now that trust simply isn't there hence the coordinated effort. I suggest you accept that and forgo the strawman argument yourself regarding unquestioned behaviour.


My issue is that the FAA has told us pretty much nothing. They are being extremely vague. They have an obligation to keep us informed. This is not some secret military project. We need a timelone and there needs to be consequences if that timeline isn't adhered to. A country like China that is currently playing games with us should not determine when the Max gets to fly again. Transport Canada has been very open and willing to work with all parties. They are the example that everyone else should follow in this situation. They are an asset and would have no issue with the FAA giving all of their needs the utmost consideration. But some countries that are complaining about components that have been on the 737 since it's inception and have proven themselves reliable are just making noise and are a distraction.

FAA have absolutely no obligation to tell you anything. In fact, they are obliged to maintain confidentiality of the manufacturers data and status of any submissions until formal issue for comment or release of the resultant. FAA have advised the key milestones (and are the matter of public record in the FARs anyway) and a timescale of ~4 weeks from receipt of the certification package (post cert flight test) to completion and 30 days for public comment of FSB proposed training requirements. Until the final package is received by FAA, we will not know when that clock starts, nor does the FAA or Boeing for that matter. TC have actually said nothing other than they will complete their own certification review and are minded to require SIM training which is actually a lot less than EASA who have made their expectation clear and are in weekly/by-weekly tele-conferences with FAA/Boeing to ensure it goes as smoothly as possible. What position China will take is any bodies guess, but the US has made its own bed on that one.

This ultra-nationalist, find a foreigner to blame, twaddle we are getting again today is the distraction.
 
sharpley
Posts: 25
Joined: Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:28 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:57 pm

Spirit have still been producing 52 fuselages a month, compared to Boeing assembling frames 42 p/m. With a large backlog of unused fuselages and now a shutdown, you have to fear for Spirit employees

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos