Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
morrisond
Posts: 2745
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:52 pm

Interested wrote:
It's cheap enough to fly already. We didn't need Max planes for that.



I don't think Greta would agree with you on this one. :D

What about CO2 emissions and the planet will melt unless we make everything more efficient and pollute less?
Last edited by morrisond on Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
asdf
Posts: 696
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:03 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:56 pm

morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:
It's cheap enough to fly already. We didn't need Max planes for that.



I don't think Greta would agree with you on this one.

What about CO2 emissions and the planet will melt unless we make everything more efficient and pollute less?


ironical statements usually are marked with a smiley or such ...
 
User avatar
speedbored
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:58 pm

Interested wrote:
speedbored wrote:
There will always have to be a cost/benefit compromise when it comes to all of this - if we want totally safe aircraft then aviation will cease.

Totally disagree on that

Interested wrote:
speedbored wrote:
Every person who has ever paid to fly has accepted that compromise.

Based on the level of safety they find acceptable

I give up. You're contradicting yourself now.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2745
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:58 pm

Interested wrote:
So far the damage done by the two Max crashes is entirely limited to the perception of the Max plane

It' hasn't damaged the reputation of Boeing's other planes or flight safety in general



Ask yourself how many people from the West who are regular readers of Publications such as the New York Times are willing to walk on to an ET or Lionair Flight these days.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2745
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:59 pm

asdf wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:
It's cheap enough to fly already. We didn't need Max planes for that.



I don't think Greta would agree with you on this one.

What about CO2 emissions and the planet will melt unless we make everything more efficient and pollute less?


ironical statements usually are marked with a smiley or such ...


Thanks good idea - I've never used those before.
 
User avatar
speedbored
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:01 pm

Interested wrote:
It's cheap enough to fly already. We didn't need Max planes for that.

Perhaps. But it's only cheap enough already because people have accepted the cost/benefit compromise are are flying around on aircraft with design faults.
 
Virtual737
Posts: 732
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:16 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:01 pm

morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:
So far the damage done by the two Max crashes is entirely limited to the perception of the Max plane

It' hasn't damaged the reputation of Boeing's other planes or flight safety in general



Ask yourself how many people from the West who are regular readers of Publications such as the New York Times are willing to walk on to an ET or Lionair Flight these days.


...and then ask the same people to point to Ethiopia and Indonesia on a map.
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:02 pm

speedbored wrote:
tobsw wrote:
Are you suggesting that paying more cash for a ticket is safer? Absolutely bollocks. Ryanair sells very cheap tickets and has an excellent safety record. One of the safest, if not the safest, airlines worldwide - well, it's the safest one considering the amount of flights and transported pax.

Flight prices are regulated by the market - airlines tend to be price takers, rather than price makers.

No, that is not even close to what I'm suggesting.

I'm saying that if passengers want a totally safe aircraft, the amount that aircraft would cost would make the cost of flying prohibitively expensive for almost everyone.

Just one example - engines could be designed to contain a turbine disc failure. They are not because that would add so much weight that aircraft would become so inefficient that fares would be too high for most people. So that containment is not added, even though the risk of a turbine disc failure, which could cause fatalities, is non-zero. It's a cost-benefit compromise.


I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?

How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the minimum size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?

And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?
Last edited by Interested on Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:10 pm

speedbored wrote:
Interested wrote:
It's cheap enough to fly already. We didn't need Max planes for that.

Perhaps. But it's only cheap enough already because people have accepted the cost/benefit compromise are are flying around on aircraft with design faults.


I can only speak for myself

I trust 737s entirely when I fly on them (non Max) . Again credit to Boeing for that. I'm not anti Boeing in general. I'm anti the Max and I'm doubtful of the competency of the current Boeing management team.

Please tell me what design faults normal 737 have that I shouldn't trust?

And if they are recognised faults what has been made different to correct them on the Max whilst making the other changes to the plane

What design faults should I be aware of and what accidents have they caused that could have been avoided in recent years?

My honest thoughts on safety when I get on a normal 737 are I hope there are no bombs, no terrorists on board and that the pilots are mentally stable. I also hope it's a reasonably new plane. In that order. Edit I also worry about bird strikes at take off for about the first 30 seconds thinking back!!

Thats my thought process and I class myself as general public

What else should I have to worry about?
 
User avatar
speedbored
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:13 pm

Interested wrote:
I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?
How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the minimum size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?
And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?

No idea off the top of my head. Probably zero. But it's off topic and irrelevant to what was being discussed.
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:14 pm

speedbored wrote:
Interested wrote:
I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?
How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the minimum size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?
And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?

No idea off the top of my head. Probably zero. But it's off topic and irrelevant to what was being discussed.


So why did you bring it up?

Are you just trying to scare me for no reason??

Lol
Last edited by Interested on Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
asdf
Posts: 696
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:03 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:14 pm

Interested wrote:
speedbored wrote:
tobsw wrote:
Are you suggesting that paying more cash for a ticket is safer? Absolutely bollocks. Ryanair sells very cheap tickets and has an excellent safety record. One of the safest, if not the safest, airlines worldwide - well, it's the safest one considering the amount of flights and transported pax.

Flight prices are regulated by the market - airlines tend to be price takers, rather than price makers.

No, that is not even close to what I'm suggesting.

I'm saying that if passengers want a totally safe aircraft, the amount that aircraft would cost would make the cost of flying prohibitively expensive for almost everyone.

Just one example - engines could be designed to contain a turbine disc failure. They are not because that would add so much weight that aircraft would become so inefficient that fares would be too high for most people. So that containment is not added, even though the risk of a turbine disc failure, which could cause fatalities, is non-zero. It's a cost-benefit compromise.


I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?

How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?

And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?


only very few
and this is because there are regulations in place
regulations for the certification and for the use

if there are very few fatalities it proofs pretty well that regulations work
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:18 pm

asdf wrote:
Interested wrote:
speedbored wrote:
No, that is not even close to what I'm suggesting.

I'm saying that if passengers want a totally safe aircraft, the amount that aircraft would cost would make the cost of flying prohibitively expensive for almost everyone.

Just one example - engines could be designed to contain a turbine disc failure. They are not because that would add so much weight that aircraft would become so inefficient that fares would be too high for most people. So that containment is not added, even though the risk of a turbine disc failure, which could cause fatalities, is non-zero. It's a cost-benefit compromise.


I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?

How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?

And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?


only very few
and this is because there are regulations in place
regulations for the certification and for the use

if there are very few fatalities it proofs pretty well that regulations work


Very few??

Now that's scared me a bit.

I'm assuming we are talking about whole planes crashing and killing everyone on board ?
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1433
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:20 pm

Interested wrote:
speedbored wrote:
Interested wrote:
It's cheap enough to fly already. We didn't need Max planes for that.

Perhaps. But it's only cheap enough already because people have accepted the cost/benefit compromise are are flying around on aircraft with design faults.


I can only speak for myself

I trust 737s entirely when I fly on them (non Max) . Again credit to Boeing for that. I'm not anti Boeing in general. I'm anti the Max and I'm doubtful of the competency of the current Boeing management team.

Please tell me what design faults normal 737 have that I shouldn't trust?

And if they are recognised faults what has been made different to correct them on the Max whilst making the other changes to the plane

What design faults should I be aware of and what accidents have they caused that could have been avoided in recent years?

My honest thoughts on safety when I get on a normal 737 are I hope there are no bombs, no terrorists on board and that the pilots are mentally stable. I also hope it's a reasonably new plane. In that order. Edit I also worry about bird strikes at take off for about the first 30 seconds thinking back!!

Thats my thought process and I class myself as general public

What else should I have to worry about?


Great post.

You should worry about weather. No one knows the combination of weather, pilot experience, and technical status of the airplane (deferred items, and repetitive items that are currently "fixed"), other than the pilots and perhaps a dispatcher, if you are flying where one is required. These factors make for a witch's brew of risk that has to be managed. This risk management generally matters more than airmanship. Mho.
 
User avatar
speedbored
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:22 pm

Interested wrote:
Please tell me what design faults normal 737 have that I shouldn't trust?
And if they are recognised faults what has been made different to correct them on the Max whilst making the other changes to the plane
What design faults should I be aware of and what accidents have they caused that could have been avoided in recent years?

Again, this is all off topic, and you can find the information you request online yourself, from accident reports and airworthiness directives that have been issued (though ADs will only cover the design faults that have been discovered so far; every aircraft type will have many others still waiting to be discovered).
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1715
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:23 pm

speedbored wrote:
Interested wrote:
I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?
How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the minimum size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?
And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?

No idea off the top of my head. Probably zero. But it's off topic and irrelevant to what was being discussed.

Didn't a woman die on a WN flight a year or two ago from this?
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
User avatar
speedbored
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:26 pm

Interested wrote:
speedbored wrote:
Interested wrote:
I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?
How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the minimum size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?
And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?

No idea off the top of my head. Probably zero. But it's off topic and irrelevant to what was being discussed.


So why did you bring it up?

Are you just trying to scare me for no reason??

Lol

Because, as I said, it is an example of a design aspect that introduces a risk (albeit small) of fatalities, that could be eliminated by a design change, but it is not because it would be prohibitively expensive.
 
dstblj52
Posts: 470
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:26 pm

Interested wrote:
asdf wrote:
Interested wrote:

I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?

How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?

And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?


only very few
and this is because there are regulations in place
regulations for the certification and for the use

if there are very few fatalities it proofs pretty well that regulations work


Very few??

Now that's scared me a bit.

I'm assuming we are talking about whole planes crashing and killing everyone on board ?

The normal 737 could potentially lose control cables in the event of an uncontained engine failure.
 
User avatar
speedbored
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:27 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
speedbored wrote:
Interested wrote:
I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?
How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the minimum size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?
And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?

No idea off the top of my head. Probably zero. But it's off topic and irrelevant to what was being discussed.

Didn't a woman die on a WN flight a year or two ago from this?

Possibly. Rings a bell. Just couldn't be bothered to check through 5 years of accident reports, as it is irrelevant to this thread/discussion.
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 5864
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:29 pm

I still wonder how the things would have played out if the accidents happened in the United States, with almost exclusively U.S. passengers killed and U.S. pilots being branded as "second rate"... wait, U.S. pilots are always first rate...
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10341
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:29 pm

Interested wrote:
speedbored wrote:
Interested wrote:
I will need you to educate me I'm afraid. I genuinely have no idea what the answer is going to be?
How many people have died in 737 size plus commercial plane accidents (I use that size as its the minimum size of plane I travel on) as a result of turbine disc failure in the last 5 years?
And if and when it happened what did the FAA do about it?

No idea off the top of my head. Probably zero. But it's off topic and irrelevant to what was being discussed.


So why did you bring it up?

Are you just trying to scare me for no reason??

Lol

Strange that both of you seem to forget the recent WN flight where the cabin was punctured and a female pax died, that was huge news on this site and elsewhere.
Unless this is actually a technical discussion on whether it was classified as a turbine disc failure, failure of containment etc etc.

We do have posters who make comments that are general in nature and other's who get real technical hopefully to educate versus deflect.
 
User avatar
speedbored
Posts: 2230
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:31 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
I still wonder how the things would have played out if the accidents happened in the United States, with almost exclusively U.S. passengers killed and U.S. pilots being branded as "second rate"... wait, U.S. pilots are always first rate...

I suspect that the first difference would have been "accident" not "accidents" - the grounding would have been ordered more quickly.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10341
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:32 pm

dstblj52 wrote:
The normal 737 could potentially lose control cables in the event of an uncontained engine failure.

Good one, now a normal 737 is -100, -200, -300, -400, -500.....
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 5864
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:00 pm

How long would it take to turn the 737 into an FBW airplane?

Would the changes be so big that all the other components could not be grandfathered in, and thus requiring a completely new certificate?
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
User avatar
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1538
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:00 pm

skipness1E wrote:
Worth remembering the early days of the revolutionary A320 when Air France flew one into a forest at Habsheim and Air Inter planted one on into a freezing mountain (IT148). The common denominator in both was the aeroplane doing something the pilots were not expecting it do, or masking a behaviour. they would expect to see prominently displayed. Habsheim was pilot error but IT148 has some similarities with the Max as the pilots were behind the aeroplane. The A320 was a lot easier to fix however, as the base design was a strong one, with the Max, every time we pull at a thread, another one unravels.


There was an Air India crash early on as well.

Habsheim was the pilot showing off to the watching crowd having forgotten the forest, no-one died. Air Inter was the pilot selecting a descent mode that was a "nice to have" option, I forget the detail but the options presented by the system were unnecessarily ambiguous and easily fixed, but all died. Air India again I forget the cause, but Air India grounded their fleet for some months following (no other airline did). I saw a lot of their A320s grounded at BOM in 1990 after the crash.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2863
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:02 pm

Two big points:
1. MAX was not grounded because of two crashes, it was grounded because of two COMMON CAUSE accidents. Shit happens, accidents can happen, sometimes out of the blue. Design defects happen, they need to be properly addressed and corrected. Boeings MAJOR fault that they failed to see writing on the wall after JT crash. Space Shuttle and Concorde programs were heavily shamed for failure to recognize that non-fatal incidents that happendes previously could result in a crash, and did not respond until crash did happen. Now Boeing brought this negligence to a next level with allowing common cause crashes.
2. Safety does have a price. It makes sense to spend a few million dollars if that saves one life. Total elimination of risk is not going to happen; cost-effective safety measures are taken. So far, price tag for Boeing is about right, if not low. They are spending few billion dollars to prevent few thousands deaths.
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 5864
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:03 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Air Inter was the pilot selecting a descent mode that was a "nice to have" option, I forget the detail but the options presented by the system were unnecessarily ambiguous and easily fixed


The descent could be selected either as an angle (flight path angle) or as a descent rate (feet per minute). I think a 2° FPA was presented similar to a 2000 ft/min descent. The mix-up led to a descent too steep.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
Virtual737
Posts: 732
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:16 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:04 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
How long would it take to turn the 737 into an FBW airplane?

Would the changes be so big that all the other components could not be grandfathered in, and thus requiring a completely new certificate?


it would never be done. Might as well start from scratch. I've cut the nose off a 737. We're not talking 1 or 2 cables.
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1756
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:10 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
I still wonder how the things would have played out if the accidents happened in the United States, with almost exclusively U.S. passengers killed and U.S. pilots being branded as "second rate"... wait, U.S. pilots are always first rate...


This! I'm surprised you're allowed to post such content here. Usually defending foreign pilots is a bankable offense here.
 
AABusDrvr
Posts: 153
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:23 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:
So far the damage done by the two Max crashes is entirely limited to the perception of the Max plane

It' hasn't damaged the reputation of Boeing's other planes or flight safety in general



Ask yourself how many people from the West who are regular readers of Publications such as the New York Times are willing to walk on to an ET or Lionair Flight these days.


...and then ask the same people to point to Ethiopia and Indonesia on a map.


I wouldn't get on a Lionair or ET flight (and I've said that for a long time, way before the MAX was flying),and I can show you exactly where both countries are on the map. but I don't read the NYT, and there are actually many airlines I wouldn't ride on.
 
dstblj52
Posts: 470
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:23 pm

par13del wrote:
dstblj52 wrote:
The normal 737 could potentially lose control cables in the event of an uncontained engine failure.

Good one, now a normal 737 is -100, -200, -300, -400, -500.....

I mean that problem wasn't corrected with the 737 classic, I believe it was grandfathered onto the NG, and might still exist on the MAX
 
planecane
Posts: 1573
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:27 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
How long would it take to turn the 737 into an FBW airplane?

Would the changes be so big that all the other components could not be grandfathered in, and thus requiring a completely new certificate?

They made the spoilers FBW on the MAX. I don't think the other controls are feasible with grandfathering because of using direct control via cables as part of the redundancy.

I don't think the 737 has enough hydraulic systems to just be "converted" to FBW. Pretty sure you need 3 and the 737 only has 2. Adding another hydraulic system would completely change the systems architecture of the plane.
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 5864
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:34 pm

planecane wrote:
I don't think the other controls are feasible with grandfathering because of using direct control via cables as part of the redundancy.

I don't think the 737 has enough hydraulic systems to just be "converted" to FBW. Pretty sure you need 3 and the 737 only has 2. Adding another hydraulic system would completely change the systems architecture of the plane.
Virtual737 wrote:
it would never be done. Might as well start from scratch. I've cut the nose off a 737. We're not talking 1 or 2 cables.


Ugh. And it would also not be feasible to make a flight control computer operate those cables and pulleys?

9w748capt wrote:
This! I'm surprised you're allowed to post such content here. Usually defending foreign pilots is a bankable offense here.


I'm so sorry! I'm in a really sorry state now! :cry2:
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8361
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:42 pm

What MAX and NG have in common to use grandfathering? Same type certification seems to be a gimmick at best.

Engines are new, FCCs are new, engine pods are new. How about fuselage, wingbox, wings, are they also new.
All posts are just opinions.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10341
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:46 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
How long would it take to turn the 737 into an FBW airplane?

Would the changes be so big that all the other components could not be grandfathered in, and thus requiring a completely new certificate?

Cannot be done, it would be an entirely new a/c, no amount of grandfathering can make the 737 a FBW a/c.
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:56 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
What MAX and NG have in common to use grandfathering? Same type certification seems to be a gimmick at best.

Engines are new, FCCs are new, engine pods are new. How about fuselage, wingbox, wings, are they also new.



They've successfully managed to keep the same manual trim wheel haven't they?
 
Virtual737
Posts: 732
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:16 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:58 pm

Interested wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
What MAX and NG have in common to use grandfathering? Same type certification seems to be a gimmick at best.

Engines are new, FCCs are new, engine pods are new. How about fuselage, wingbox, wings, are they also new.



They've successfully managed to keep the same manual trim wheel haven't they?


Nope. It's smaller on the MAX.
 
planecane
Posts: 1573
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:20 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
planecane wrote:
I don't think the other controls are feasible with grandfathering because of using direct control via cables as part of the redundancy.

I don't think the 737 has enough hydraulic systems to just be "converted" to FBW. Pretty sure you need 3 and the 737 only has 2. Adding another hydraulic system would completely change the systems architecture of the plane.
Virtual737 wrote:
it would never be done. Might as well start from scratch. I've cut the nose off a 737. We're not talking 1 or 2 cables.


Ugh. And it would also not be feasible to make a flight control computer operate those cables and pulleys?



Something needs to actuate the control surface. They would either have to add another hydraulic system or install backup electric actuators (which would require an electrical system with enough power).

It's not just that there are cables connected to the surfaces, it is that they are the final backup that the pilot can move the surfaces in the event of a hydraulic failure.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2258
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:26 pm

Been following for months but have not yet contributed. What are the odds that the MAX loses its certificate due to inablilty of all pilots to manually trim the aircraft trim wheel? It sounds like it takes a lot of strength in extreme cases to accomplish this.
 
SanDiegoLover
Posts: 431
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:24 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:40 pm

enzo011 wrote:
The problem the FAA has surely is if they give Boeing leeway to get the MAX back in service due to pressure from Congress and the jobs at suppliers, if there is another accident and it is attributed to their decision to speed up the process to get it back in service to save jobs, the FAA is done as a certification agency. There will be no confidence from anyone that any future certifications were done with safety as a goal or with jobs at too big to fail Boeing.


Not only that but Congresscritters are cowards. How many of them are willingly going to publically pressure the FAA to get an airplane flying again, when the very next crash for any reason, a spotlight will be put on their comments and actions to bully the FAA? Especially, if you don’t have a 737 production facility in your district or state.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24409
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:44 pm

snowkarl wrote:
Do you genuinely believe, hand on Bible, heart and daughter, that the CEO of Boeing and its board had even the smallest, insignificant belief that return to service would be in 2019 as late as November or December?

Because even laymen without any industry insight were able to calculate the very simple fact that this hasn't been on the cards since arguably, the spring. It was inconceivable as early as September.

I don't know what point you're making, but I think US-only RTS by end of year was feasible as late as September. Neither of us know what the CEO or BoD knew. I'm sure there was room for doubt, and they did say their RTS time line was an estimate. I don't think your statement about it being inconceivable holds water. If that was so, I believe the messaging would have been different, especially with regard to the Q3 earnings call.

The point I was making is that if Boeing and its BoD know of another major flaw blocking RTS and haven't mentioned it, then they could find themselves subject of yet another investigation, this time by the SEC. For instance https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-12-16 ... Production describes the shutdown purely in terms of managing its resources and supporting the FAA's RTS process. If they know of some other material reason such as those being speculated about here i.e. aerodynamic conditions that make a software solution unfeasible they are IMO obligated to communicate it since it's such a material impact on the company.

UALWN wrote:
The Economist believes Muilenburg must go: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/ ... he-737-max

It's a pretty simple conclusion to reach, however I do give them bonus points for their vivid writing:

Since March Boeing’s response has been an ugly mixture of remorse, evasion and swagger, as it has gambled that it can get the MAX, and its business, rapidly back in the air. On December 16th that strategy ran out of runway when the firm announced it would suspend production of the stricken plane.

I think the highlighted bit describes DM's testimony to Congress quite well, which must be leaving the BoD wondering if they can't find some one who can't do a better job than that.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
SanDiegoLover
Posts: 431
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:24 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:48 pm

speedbored wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
speedbored wrote:
No idea off the top of my head. Probably zero. But it's off topic and irrelevant to what was being discussed.

Didn't a woman die on a WN flight a year or two ago from this?

Possibly. Rings a bell. Just couldn't be bothered to check through 5 years of accident reports, as it is irrelevant to this thread/discussion.


It’s quite relative despite your hamhanded dismissal. It’s relevant because even one death has caused a fix or redesign to the 737. https://www.dallasnews.com/business/air ... passenger/
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9645
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
snowkarl wrote:
Do you genuinely believe, hand on Bible, heart and daughter, that the CEO of Boeing and its board had even the smallest, insignificant belief that return to service would be in 2019 as late as November or December?

Because even laymen without any industry insight were able to calculate the very simple fact that this hasn't been on the cards since arguably, the spring. It was inconceivable as early as September.

I don't know what point you're making, but I think US-only RTS by end of year was feasible as late as September. Neither of us know what the CEO or BoD knew. I'm sure there was room for doubt, and they did say their RTS time line was an estimate. I don't think your statement about it being inconceivable holds water. If that was so, I believe the messaging would have been different, especially with regard to the Q3 earnings call.

The point I was making is that if Boeing and its BoD know of another major flaw blocking RTS and haven't mentioned it, then they could find themselves subject of yet another investigation, this time by the SEC. For instance https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-12-16 ... Production describes the shutdown purely in terms of managing its resources and supporting the FAA's RTS process. If they know of some other material reason such as those being speculated about here i.e. aerodynamic conditions that make a software solution unfeasible they are IMO obligated to communicate it since it's such a material impact on the company.


They do not know it until the regulator rejects their fix. Any other approach would put their whole decision making process for the whole MAX development into question.
 
uta999
Posts: 919
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:03 pm

If in March, Boeing decided to put 787 style FBW systems into a new MAX frame they would be half-way through to certification by now.
Your computer just got better
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24409
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:05 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
What MAX and NG have in common to use grandfathering? Same type certification seems to be a gimmick at best.

Engines are new, FCCs are new, engine pods are new. How about fuselage, wingbox, wings, are they also new.

FCCs aren't new, from what we know the hardware changed from Honeywell to Collins somewhere during the NG era and it's still Collins, software obviously changed.

Engines and pods are new.

Fuse, wings, wing box are largely the same, some strengthening applied.

Nose wheel now 8 inches taller.

A good list: http://www.b737.org.uk/737maxdiffs.htm

Similar info for Classic->NG: http://www.b737.org.uk/737ng.htm

A lot more changed between Classic and NG than did from NG to MAX.

Virtual737 wrote:
Interested wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
What MAX and NG have in common to use grandfathering? Same type certification seems to be a gimmick at best.

Engines are new, FCCs are new, engine pods are new. How about fuselage, wingbox, wings, are they also new.

They've successfully managed to keep the same manual trim wheel haven't they?

Nope. It's smaller on the MAX.

I thought I read the wheel was reduced for the NG, thus the concern about having to retrofit all the NGs if a change is required.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/05/b ... 7-ngs.html says:

In the NG series a new Flight Management Computer (FMC) was added to the plane. (The FMC helps the pilots to plan and manage the flight. It includes data about airports and navigation points. It differs from the two Flight Control Computers in that it has no control over physical elements of the plane.)

The FMC on the NG version has two input/output units each with a small screen and a larger keyboard below it. They are next to the knees of the pilot and the copilot They are located on the central pedestal between the pilots right below the vertical instrument panel (see pic below). The lengthy FMCs did not fit on the original central pedestal. The trim wheels on each side, used to manually trim the airplane in its longitudinal axis or pitch, were in the way. Boeing's 'solution' to the problem was to make the manual trim wheels smaller.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
IADCA
Posts: 2186
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:08 pm

NonTechAvLover wrote:
IADCA wrote:

A proposal for that JV would get blocked by at least three antitrust regulators (and probably a half-dozen more by the time all was done), and it would take at least a year by the time they signed the deal to get to that point. With all the time you'd waste on that, you could just get the MAX back in the air.


Again, if the MAX will be back in the air safely flying in a year, nobody needs a JV of any sort, of course. The proposal was premised on the particular contingency of the MAX being either fatally flawed or prohibitively expensive to return to service.

On the antitrust point, the antitrust agencies I am familiar with have to explain their decisions by reference to a particular market (geographic or product-based) and how a proposed transaction would lead to anti-competitive practices in regard to that market. If the MAX is not flying, which scenario is less competitive (more monopolistic), AB producing 320s and no other major competitors or AB plus the B-AB JV producing 320s?

Final agreements may take some time to sign (and this is an area where I can claim some expertise), but transactions like these are documented in multiple phases, each phase allowing certain steps to be taken without having to wait until the next phase. I think a simple confidentiality undertaking would suffice to put a couple of high ranking executives from both sides in a room to start exploring the idea. They could then go home and start talking to their technical, legal and finance teams for next steps. That gets followed by a non-binding joint document of sorts (typically an MoU), which itself would allow talking to other stakeholders and establishing teams for the project). Fast forward some time and many more documents signed, you could have final JV agreements signed in a year (maybe sooner with intelligent lawyers) subject to regulatory clearances, but a lot of work would have been done during this period.

Other alternatives are suggested if the MAX cannot fly again, the Russian plane MC-21, Boeing producing 737 NGs instead of the MAX, AB trying to increase 320 production by itself and there may be others. To me the idea of a JV sounds more practical and superior to any of these others and clearly better than the do nothing approach, unless a very significant portion of the 5,000 MAX orders were not strictly necessary, but for people to fly in new shiny planes instead of perfectly fine older planes.

Rgds,


You have two major antitrust issues here. First is that the creation of this JV would be a 2-to-1 in a product market defined something along the lines of "mainline narrowbody aircraft." One can quibble with the edges of the product market definition, but there's no rational way to define a market that includes anything but A or B products at present or includes widebodies, which presumably would not be in the JV.

The JV would reduce Boeing's incentive to offer any alternative product in the short run, even heavily discounted 737NGs, which are at least partial substitutes for the A320N and A220 families. This duopoly functionally exists worldwide, so the geographic market definition (whether worldwide or discretely by countries) doesn't matter. I take your point about the expanded output of A320s as a pro-consumer benefit, but I can guarantee you that that's not even close to enough to get a 2-to-1 approved. The problem is worse given that Airbus has multiple other potential partners besides Boeing to expand the output of A320s and has a recent demonstrated record of expanding output even without JV partners.

Second, even if you somehow surmount that first bit, you have a potential competition/killer deal concern that would probably be fatal on its own, at least with the EC. This deal would reduce the incentive to develop a new narrowbody competitor as fast as humanly possible and perpetuate a monopoly. It stifles innovation, or at the least slows it. This is a hot button issue for both the US agencies and the EC right now.

And I'm sure the transaction/diligence timeline could be significantly accelerated from what you proposed (having a fair bit of experience in this myself as the outside lawyer), but it doesn't matter. There is just zero chance of getting that deal through an antitrust review. Anyway, that's just the 2 cents from someone who practices antitrust law for a living.
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 5864
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:14 pm

planecane wrote:

Something needs to actuate the control surface. They would either have to add another hydraulic system or install backup electric actuators (which would require an electrical system with enough power).

It's not just that there are cables connected to the surfaces, it is that they are the final backup that the pilot can move the surfaces in the event of a hydraulic failure.


My reasoning was that whatever the pilot is doing is first fed through a computer, and then the computer actuates the completely unchanged legacy systems (hydraulics, cables, pulleys, backup electrical actuators...). So the mechanical backup will be actuated by the computer, too.

I know, it's an FBW for poor plane manufacturers, but it could completely do away with shoddy halfway solutions like MCAS.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24409
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:14 pm

seahawk wrote:
They do not know it until the regulator rejects their fix. Any other approach would put their whole decision making process for the whole MAX development into question.

That's a pretty narrow view of the situation, IMO. Both FAA and Boeing say they are in constant communication. Same with EASA. We've seen leaks of some of the emails. We've seen DM visiting Dickinson. We've seen FAA pilots taking test flights at Boeing. Neither side wants a major surprise such as the kind some here are theorizing.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Nick1209
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:24 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:26 pm

The groundings are political at this point. The fix to MCAS has been done since the summer. It’s just the FAA trying to act like they’re doing something useful. Boeing is now suspending the program, they don’t have to pay employees if they’re laid off, and now the government will. And who will the government go after?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
planecane
Posts: 1573
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:33 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
planecane wrote:

Something needs to actuate the control surface. They would either have to add another hydraulic system or install backup electric actuators (which would require an electrical system with enough power).

It's not just that there are cables connected to the surfaces, it is that they are the final backup that the pilot can move the surfaces in the event of a hydraulic failure.


My reasoning was that whatever the pilot is doing is first fed through a computer, and then the computer actuates the completely unchanged legacy systems (hydraulics, cables, pulleys, backup electrical actuators...). So the mechanical backup will be actuated by the computer, too.

I know, it's an FBW for poor plane manufacturers, but it could completely do away with shoddy halfway solutions like MCAS.


Even if you did it that way, there would be a major systems change to add the actuators. Not to mention the additional sensors, new (and additional) flight control computers, etc. No way it could still be grandfathered.

They were able to do the spoilers FBW because there is no cable and pulley backup. Also, it is not a complex system. They go up when selected or the flight spoilers go up below certain speeds to assist the ailerons in roll control.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos