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estorilm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:36 pm

uta999 wrote:
If in March, Boeing decided to put 787 style FBW systems into a new MAX frame they would be half-way through to certification by now.

In addition to being completely impossible and taking years to re-engineer nearly every system on the aircraft (and build / program all of the required flight envelopes and behaviors in sims / computer models) it would also require new training for every crew and maintenance employee around the world who operate the type.

Oh yeah, and you've got approximately 800 MAX's built which would need to be torn-apart and rebuilt at a staggering cost. Literally impossible.

Now if you said "they should have put a 787-style FBW system into a new 737 frame instead of building the MAX in the first place years ago" that would probably be more accurate.

The penny pinchers saw a very large threat in market share of the upcoming NEO and honestly, they had to react immediately. If there was a clean-sheet, they would have mostly given up a segment they've traditionally dominated for.. well.. the history of jet travel, for at least 10 years till the new design reached EIS.

Not giving Boeing a pass either way, just an observation. They really had their hands tied a few years ago.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:37 pm

Re Boeing stopping production being a "political" move


Should it not worry Boeing management that FAA still don't think the plane is safe enough to fly

Surely Boeing want everybody on board with them?

So that no fingers can be pointed by anyone if theres another disaster?

If Boeing mean it when they say that when the plane returns it will be one of the safest planes ever to fly it should be easy to get FAA and EASA an all the pilots unions and everyone else on board with them

They shouldn't need to do anything political to influence a favourable answer surely?

They should want the whole industry agreeing the plane is one of the safest to ever fly

Political or financial pressure shouldn't come into any decisions now

Surely we are past all that?
 
shmerik
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:51 pm

It's strange to see the sudden conclusion that many have reached that now the only reason certification is being extended is because the FAA is being wishy-washy with requirements and trying to prove a point (the whole idea that things were good to go back in June/July and now the FAA is just flexing on Boeing out of spite).

What makes you think that it's not just that Boeing is legitimately failing to meet the requirements?

Back when they submitted documentation for the fix, Boeing said that it would be a matter of days to correct but:

https://www.businessinsider.com/regulat ... es-2019-11

The FAA did not immediately comment but in September, FAA Administrator Steve Dickson told Reuters the agency had conversations with Boeing "about the importance of making sure that we are looking at complete documentation and not piecemeal documentation."

He added the FAA told Boeing "it's really better to be very methodical and very detailed rather than try to rush a partially completed product and then say, 'We'll get back to you with the rest of it.'"


At the time any were speculating that it was a matter of formatting but I haven't seen any proof that it wasn't an actual case of substandard documentation that was missing pieces. At this point I don't see how anyone could be surprised that Boeing would try to push substandard rushed work through the process after the behavior they've displayed repeatedly.

Then there are the results from actual pilots in the updated sim:

https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... ax-return/

...all the pilots managed to get themselves out of trouble, but Boeing and regulators found that “more than half…of pilots responded with the wrong procedures,” according to one of the three people briefed on the results that are currently being analyzed by the FAA and other global regulators


The airline pilots were presented with different scenarios during the evaluations. The week-long trials inside Boeing’s 737 Max engineering simulator focused on the human response to a variety of angle of attack (AOA) indication failures and disagreements in real-world scenarios, including takeoff, landing and at cruise, the briefed people said. Troubleshooting “the failure presented wasn’t intuitive based on the checklist,”


I'm aware that it can be a major PITA to work with regulators but in this case it seems completely feasible that the timeline is slipping because Boeing's results aren't performing as they expect. Judging by the way the estimates to RTS slipped all year I get the feeling that Boeing's PR was putting out date after date of "absolute best case scenario" and as happens in the real world things don't go 100% according to how the plan is written on paper.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:55 pm

smartplane wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A bit more: SAFRAN isn't paid until aircraft delivery

Where an air frame OEM sells on a turnkey basis, the engine cost is packaged with the air frame. Each pre-delivery payment milestone, includes an engine payment, which is released by the air frame OEM on delivery, or earlier if requested.

Where customers purchase engines separately, milestone payments are made directly between the purchaser and engine supplier.

If SAFRAN receive no payment until an aircraft is delivered, that's an issue between GE and themselves. GE has access to engine milestone payments. GE invoices Boeing or customers depending on how the engines were sold. SAFRAN needs a new deal with GE.

SAFRAN is a risk sharing parner. Or more precisely, CFM is and SAFRAN is paid by CFM. Of course some contracts have progress payments. But usually the bulk is paid on delivery. As a risk sharing partner, CFM isn't paid on engine delivery to Boeing, they are paid the bulk when the aircraft is delivered to the airline.

SAFRAN doesn't want a new deal with GE. The current deal forces GE to 50/50 joint venture with SAFRAN for all engines, going from memory here, 25,000lbf to 40,000 lbf. This forces more risk on SAFRAN, but in the long run they make twice to triple the profit.

GE doesn't invoice, it is CFM. GE/SAFRAN each own half. Both want 51%. If GE gets paid, so does SAFRAN.

The only advantage for GE is they hold the high turbine. That ensures a bulk of maintenance profit.

In a 50/50 joint venture, both hurt equally in a line shutdown.

As I noted earlier, it takes a year to stop engine production and 2 years to restart.

On all the vendors this will be brutal. Worst on Spirit as 50% of their business is the MAX. SAFRAN has military, rockets, sub assemblies on other engines, world's #1 helicopter engine business (was GE, these two are frienimies), aircraft (interiors, including Zodiac, and avionics), plus the huge CFM-56 spares market, including overhaul services.

I worry about smaller businesses more. I'm trying to figure out how many people the MAX directly employs. At $30 billion/year, that should be 200,000 to 300,000 people. Quite the stop button.

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crazy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:00 pm

I have a question.
Why Boeing did not ground the B737 MAX soon after the first crash? At first it was inexplicable and was clear the airplane made something the pilots did not want to make and weren't able to control and to change!
Lion Air 189 dead weren't enough to stop the flights of a new airplane with some problems???
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
They do not know it until the regulator rejects their fix. Any other approach would put their whole decision making process for the whole MAX development into question.

That's a pretty narrow view of the situation, IMO. Both FAA and Boeing say they are in constant communication. Same with EASA. We've seen leaks of some of the emails. We've seen DM visiting Dickinson. We've seen FAA pilots taking test flights at Boeing. Neither side wants a major surprise such as the kind some here are theorizing.


I was just pointing out that Boeing only has to report a problem when the FAA rejects their fix, until then everybody is working to get the plane back in the air asap. I expect the RTS to happen very soon.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:06 pm

Interested wrote:
Re Boeing stopping production being a "political" move
Should it not worry Boeing management that FAA still don't think the plane is safe enough to fly

No, because the last thing that the FAA said was that they are in control of the RTS timeline and the head has told his staff that they must take their time to review the Boeing submissions that the head of the FAA said that they received in November 2019.

I usually don't like to harp on about sources, but do you have anything from anyone since November saying that the a/c is not safe to fly?
We even have statements from EASA saying they see the a/c being cleared to fly in Europe in Jan-Feb 2020, now all of a sudden we have all this speculation about Boeing not providing data to the FAA.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:10 pm

Interested wrote:
If Boeing mean it when they say that when the plane returns it will be one of the safest planes ever to fly it should be easy to get FAA and EASA an all the pilots unions and everyone else on board with them

Ok, so based on some of the comments in the last couple days, are we now saying it is Boeing who will make the a/c safe not the FAA?
Boeing is doing the work to meet the FAA regulations which are supposed to make the a/c safe right, or do I have that the other way around?
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:17 pm

par13del wrote:
Interested wrote:
If Boeing mean it when they say that when the plane returns it will be one of the safest planes ever to fly it should be easy to get FAA and EASA an all the pilots unions and everyone else on board with them

Ok, so based on some of the comments in the last couple days, are we now saying it is Boeing who will make the a/c safe not the FAA?
Boeing is doing the work to meet the FAA regulations which are supposed to make the a/c safe right, or do I have that the other way around?


Isn't it a joint effort now

FAA confirm Boeing have met all the minimum standards

And Boeing if they've got anything about them do way more than the minimum

No questions left unturned or not solved to everybody's satisfaction

To the benefit of all concerned. If they are having a battle together that's no good for anybody
Last edited by Interested on Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:17 pm

Interested wrote:
Re Boeing stopping production being a "political" move


Should it not worry Boeing management that FAA still don't think the plane is safe enough to fly

Surely Boeing want everybody on board with them?

So that no fingers can be pointed by anyone if theres another disaster?

If Boeing mean it when they say that when the plane returns it will be one of the safest planes ever to fly it should be easy to get FAA and EASA an all the pilots unions and everyone else on board with them

They shouldn't need to do anything political to influence a favourable answer surely?

They should want the whole industry agreeing the plane is one of the safest to ever fly

Political or financial pressure shouldn't come into any decisions now

Surely we are past all that?

Regulator's want the best, not good enough. If the solution meets requirements, then it can be certified.

The more regulators involved, the more each individual wants to find a problem.

At this point Boeing needs to conserve cash. There spend was $2.5 billion/month on the MAX to $2 billion, to now just over a billion. That cut implies about 150,000 fewer jobs.

So now regulators who want more time to make sure it is right will instead do as they are supposed, a yes/no answer with "yes, but this increases risk" acceptable as if the FMEA goes too high risk, no certification.

On my last project, we had 40 requirements passed with requests for more testing. It turned out the regulator wanted more information to better tell a competitor why they failed requirements. Interesting, we passed and declined to execute $10 million more in testing to help the regulator and our competitor. We met FMEA and the RVTM, so good enough.

Regulators always want more data to better regulate, but usually not the aircraft being tested. China wants more data for the C919 (in particular after the ARJ-21 that never would have been certified by the FAA).

Some of the politics is China wants FAA or EASA certification without the embarrassing oversight.

I believe the FAA will be more focused on good enough instead of better. As that one Navy certification authority was famous for saying, "Better is the enemy of good enough." (Because Better is always not delivered.) I hated that expression at the start of my career, but embrace it now.

Regulators want better. With 100,000+ people about to be idled, even the regulators will ask what the value of better is. Don't get me wrong, the FAA must do better diligence. But at this point I am of the opinion Boeing cannot get a fixed to do list. Otherwise RTS would be done. That is very frustrating. So time to share the risk with risk sharing partners.

SAFRAN obsesses me due to limited availability of overtime to surge and limited ability to shed workers economically. It will be interesting to see how the deal with their risk.

For myself, resumes are coming in as we have 15,000+ job rec's out. But not as many as I expected. Not even 10% as many as I thought... Hmmm.... But then again, layoff notices haven't yet happened. But a billion usd+/month spending cut puts people out of work in mass quantities.

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Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:19 pm

But surely Boeing also wants the best as well at this stage?

To be whiter than white and regain everybody's trust?

This is no normal situation.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:24 pm

shmerik wrote:
At the time any were speculating that it was a matter of formatting but I haven't seen any proof that it wasn't an actual case of substandard documentation that was missing pieces. At this point I don't see how anyone could be surprised that Boeing would try to push substandard rushed work through the process after the behavior they've displayed repeatedly.

...nor have we seen anything from them saying all the requirements requested were not provided...

shmerik wrote:
Then there are the results from actual pilots in the updated sim:

https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... ax-return/
So is the FAA holding up on RTS because they have not yet defined what additional training they require?
shmerik wrote:
I'm aware that it can be a major PITA to work with regulators but in this case it seems completely feasible that the timeline is slipping because Boeing's results aren't performing as they expect. Judging by the way the estimates to RTS slipped all year I get the feeling that Boeing's PR was putting out date after date of "absolute best case scenario" and as happens in the real world things don't go 100% according to how the plan is written on paper.

...but is that the case, is it Boeing, FAA, EASA who is saying the results are not performing as expected and if so, why is the head of the FAA not focusing on that versus whatever PR timeline Boeing is putting out? As is posted earlier, maybe the Boeing PR caused him and his staff to forget that they are the regulator and they determine whether the a/c is safe to RTS.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:28 pm

I've not seen or read any document from Boeing to suppliers / vendors or to their work force regarding this. I heard from a Boeing employee in Renton about 24 hours ago, no information from management on a shutdown.

It's my belief that this announced shutdown in January is a warning to FAA, Congress, the White House and Wall Street about what *could* happen.

I'll believe they're serious when I see the announcements to the work force or suppliers. Right now it's just statements to the press.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:35 pm

I despair for Boeing if it's a warning and it is political

Have they not learnt anything from the mistakes so far?

Make the plane safe. Make it all transparent. Get everybody happy and on board.

Whatever it takes. No funny games any more.

Dont try to twist any arms or exert any pressure. That's got to stop for this to get better.

Gain trust again.

Come on Mullenburg show some leadership and win some pride back for Boeing

Just find out what you need to get done and get it done and signed off

If you cant do it then say so and try a plan B
 
mysfit
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:40 pm

The notion that the FAA is simply being spiteful and punitive at this point is right up there with the best, or worst, conspiracy theorists.

Everyone wants the plane back in the air as quickly as possible so long as it's safe. It isn't just the FAA that has to sign off. Boeing did this to themselves and the FAA was a willing partner first time around.

This needs to be done RIGHT this time. It serves no one well to RTS prematurely and it serves no one well to take longer than necessary out of spite.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:42 pm

There must be a reason why the Boeing stock doesn't go seriously down? Maybe they know the announced production stop is just a bluff? Wouldn't the market react more visible if Boeing would really burn the bridges to their MAX supply chain now?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
As I noted earlier, it takes a year to stop engine production and 2 years to restart.

One of the links I posted earlier said Boeing will be selective with regard to stopping production, precisely to avoid this kind of situation i.e. to avoid losing slots in casting/forging shops that would cause a two year reboot.

All the pictures of planes I saw in Moses Lake had engines hanging off them, so a gradual reboot should be manageable, IMO.

lightsaber wrote:
I believe the FAA will be more focused on good enough instead of better. As that one Navy certification authority was famous for saying, "Better is the enemy of good enough." (Because Better is always not delivered.) I hated that expression at the start of my career, but embrace it now.

I've used this line a lot, it's been around a long time. Wiki says:

Perfect is the enemy of good, or more literally the best is the enemy of the good, is an aphorism which is commonly attributed to Voltaire, who quoted an Italian proverb in his Dictionnaire philosophique in 1770: "Il meglio è l'inimico del bene".[2] It subsequently appeared in his moral poem La Bégueule, which starts[3]

    Dans ses écrits, un sage Italien
    Dit que le mieux est l'ennemi du bien.

    (In his writings, a wise Italian
    says that the best is the enemy of the good)

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_i ... my_of_good

The first time I read this line it was ascribed to Stalin, but I can't find such a reference any more.

Perhaps more succinctly, "perfect is the enemy of done".

Unfortunately, Boeing seems to have embraced this idea a bit too much.

Wiki also says:

Robert Watson-Watt, who developed early warning radar in Britain to counter the rapid growth of the Luftwaffe, propounded a "cult of the imperfect", which he stated as "Give them the third best to go on with; the second best comes too late, the best never comes."[6]

Voltaire, Stalin, Watson-Watt all Europeans: go figure. Most here would think these are the words of a US capitalist.
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shmerik
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:51 pm

par13del wrote:
...nor have we seen anything from them saying all the requirements requested were not provided...


The FAA's quote about being certain that they aren't reviewing "piecemeal" documentation suggests that at that point the documentation they received was incomplete, which would likely fail to meet their requirements...

par13del wrote:
shmerik wrote:
Then there are the results from actual pilots in the updated sim:

https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... ax-return/
So is the FAA holding up on RTS because they have not yet defined what additional training they require?


Maybe?

par13del wrote:
shmerik wrote:
I'm aware that it can be a major PITA to work with regulators but in this case it seems completely feasible that the timeline is slipping because Boeing's results aren't performing as they expect. Judging by the way the estimates to RTS slipped all year I get the feeling that Boeing's PR was putting out date after date of "absolute best case scenario" and as happens in the real world things don't go 100% according to how the plan is written on paper.

...but is that the case, is it Boeing, FAA, EASA who is saying the results are not performing as expected and if so, why is the head of the FAA not focusing on that versus whatever PR timeline Boeing is putting out? As is posted earlier, maybe the Boeing PR caused him and his staff to forget that they are the regulator and they determine whether the a/c is safe to RTS.


What I meant was that Boeing's PR was operating from the assumption that the rest of the company would flawlessly execute the required tasks, where in the real world flawless execution rarely ever happens so then they had to constantly backpedal.

It's constantly been reminding me of a job I worked at in the past after we had hired a new project manager. The PM would ask us in engineering how long tasks would likely take and we'd give them an estimate, they would push for what was the absolute best possible time to complete that we would expect. After a few rounds of failing to deliver on time because of unknown circumstances at the outset of the project we learned to add quite a large buffer to our best projected estimates, since the PM didn't have the sense to include it in the timeline provided to the customer.

Boeing's December recertification estimate back when they had submitted documentation smelled like BS to me at the time and it looks like my hunch was correct. I don't know how they possibly thought that they could tick off the rest of the boxes on that list within a month during the holidays while needing to coordinate with other organizations, it was just completely unrealistic.
Last edited by shmerik on Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:51 pm

Noshow wrote:
There must be a reason why the Boeing stock doesn't go seriously down? Maybe they know the announced production stop is just a bluff? Wouldn't the market react more visible if Boeing would really burn the bridges to their MAX supply chain now?

Maybe you should consider the market has already factored a lot of the MAX hit into the stock price, and the reality is that while Boeing is taking a big hit on MAX they have more than enough resources to cover the hit and more than just MAX in their product portfolio?

The story being told on this thread of various undisclosed serious problems and a one year or more hit to RTS is speculation, many readers treat it as fact, but the market does not.

Some times a cigar is just a cigar, but turning it into something else makes for a better story.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
All the pictures of planes I saw in Moses Lake had engines hanging off them, so a gradual reboot should be manageable, IMO.


I had a trip to Seattle in October. We visited RNT, BFI, PAE and Moses Lake. We saw a lot of MAXes and every single one had engines on - not surprising I guess, given they've all (aside from a couple at RNT fresh off the line) completed normal test flights, then flown to BFI, PAE, Moses Lake and Kelly Field.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:00 pm

[list=][/list]
par13del wrote:
Interested wrote:
If Boeing mean it when they say that when the plane returns it will be one of the safest planes ever to fly it should be easy to get FAA and EASA an all the pilots unions and everyone else on board with them

Ok, so based on some of the comments in the last couple days, are we now saying it is Boeing who will make the a/c safe not the FAA?
Boeing is doing the work to meet the FAA regulations which are supposed to make the a/c safe right, or do I have that the other way around?


FAA is a regulator
it makes sure that that regulations are in place and that appliers meet the regulation with their product

of course it is boeings part to proof that they meet regulations with their product

if a regulation would be: the first 10 inches of the product have to be painted bright
and the applier brings in product with a black front then it will be rejected
the regulator will tell the applier: "you missed regulation 123.543.12/3, the color of the front does not match"
but thats it
it is NOT the responsibility of the regulator to tell where they can buy the color dose and the brush and how to rig up the ladder for painting
what can be discussed between this two is how to find a definition of "bright"
if the applier ask the regulator will tell
if the applier dont accept the opinion of the regulator they will negotiate
then they will find an agreement
or the applier accepts the opinion of the regulator, because its easier
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:02 pm

Interested wrote:
But surely Boeing also wants the best as well at this stage?

To be whiter than white and regain everybody's trust?

This is no normal situation.


In my opinion, that is why Boeing went along with the statistically highly improbable 5 bit flip results, and agreed to change the computer structures.

The current problem is, in my opinion, that the regulators are focused on "more better yet" instead of just agreeing to "good enough"

"Good enough" is defined in the regulations.

As far as various different regulator agencies saying that Boeing has not yet submitted a complete package for review. You need to understand that said complete package only exist after the regulator is convinced that Boeing has answered every question they have asked, or agreed to drop the question.

In November Boeing submitted the package using their best information on what the regulator wanted (the regulator never tells you exactly what is needed). The regulator concluded that the package was incomplete and asked Boeing to submit more information. Boeing said that would be done within a week. I have no doubt that happened as I've been though a similar process enough times with the NRC (and the FAA and NRC regulations and way the agencies work are very similar once you ignore that one is regulating radiation exposure and the other is regulating aircraft crashes). We even use the same FMEA and Root Cause investigation process (and some of the controls in the nuclear world come from companies who make controls for aviation - and they only use one FMEA form for both industries).

However, the FAA has opened the process up to Brazil, Canada, EASA, and allowed China at least Observer status (and likely comment status); so now anyone from those countries can request more information and ask more questions. Then they can request more information and ask more questions when they get the documents and answers they requested.... This can literally go on forever if they get focused on chasing perfection (more better) - instead of just accepting what is good enough. Through the process the effective standards that Boeing must meet changes (as they change in the Nuclear world where I worked and still do occasional consulting).

Hence the comment from my acquaintance that I posted yesterday about that Boeing did not know what was actually required yet as the standards keep changing. That implies that the regulators are still asking questions and requesting more testing. It does not mean that those questions and answers or more testing are required for the regulatory required "good enough."

I agree with Lightsaber that Boeing by shutting down the line will refocus the regulators back to what is "good enough" versus continued chasing of what is in my personal experience minutia that does not affect anything in real life. That will wind down the continued digging and questions - and Boeing will be told what the final standards are and what is a "complete" submittal package.

My view is that Boeing tried to be a good corporate citizen and demonstated that they were willing to do "better" with accepting the 5 bit flip failure and agreeing to change the computers. That cost about 6 months delay and many $Billions (and will make the 737 Max statistically safer than all previous 737s). How much more better do you expect Boeing to be and at what cost?

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:21 pm

Noshow wrote:
There must be a reason why the Boeing stock doesn't go seriously down? Maybe they know the announced production stop is just a bluff? Wouldn't the market react more visible if Boeing would really burn the bridges to their MAX supply chain now?


Or maybe the markets have already baked what's currently happening into their calculations. The MAX will fly again. I have heard a few people talk about Boeing abandoning the MAX altogether and designing the plane family they should have done instead of the MAX, but I don't think that will happen, in a way unfortunately. Boeing's ahead on widebodies - they should have taken the hit to come out on top later in narrowbodies too, IMHO. Too late for that now - as things have transpired, now they have to make a pearl out of a mess of swine pottage.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:28 pm

2175301 wrote:
Interested wrote:
But surely Boeing also wants the best as well at this stage?

To be whiter than white and regain everybody's trust?

This is no normal situation.


In my opinion, that is why Boeing went along with the statistically highly improbable 5 bit flip results, and agreed to change the computer structures.

The current problem is, in my opinion, that the regulators are focused on "more better yet" instead of just agreeing to "good enough"

"Good enough" is defined in the regulations.

As far as various different regulator agencies saying that Boeing has not yet submitted a complete package for review. You need to understand that said complete package only exist after the regulator is convinced that Boeing has answered every question they have asked, or agreed to drop the question.

In November Boeing submitted the package using their best information on what the regulator wanted (the regulator never tells you exactly what is needed). The regulator concluded that the package was incomplete and asked Boeing to submit more information. Boeing said that would be done within a week. I have no doubt that happened as I've been though a similar process enough times with the NRC (and the FAA and NRC regulations and way the agencies work are very similar once you ignore that one is regulating radiation exposure and the other is regulating aircraft crashes). We even use the same FMEA and Root Cause investigation process (and some of the controls in the nuclear world come from companies who make controls for aviation - and they only use one FMEA form for both industries).

However, the FAA has opened the process up to Brazil, Canada, EASA, and allowed China at least Observer status (and likely comment status); so now anyone from those countries can request more information and ask more questions. Then they can request more information and ask more questions when they get the documents and answers they requested.... This can literally go on forever if they get focused on chasing perfection (more better) - instead of just accepting what is good enough. Through the process the effective standards that Boeing must meet changes (as they change in the Nuclear world where I worked and still do occasional consulting).

Hence the comment from my acquaintance that I posted yesterday about that Boeing did not know what was actually required yet as the standards keep changing. That implies that the regulators are still asking questions and requesting more testing. It does not mean that those questions and answers or more testing are required for the regulatory required "good enough."

I agree with Lightsaber that Boeing by shutting down the line will refocus the regulators back to what is "good enough" versus continued chasing of what is in my personal experience minutia that does not affect anything in real life. That will wind down the continued digging and questions - and Boeing will be told what the final standards are and what is a "complete" submittal package.

My view is that Boeing tried to be a good corporate citizen and demonstated that they were willing to do "better" with accepting the 5 bit flip failure and agreeing to change the computers. That cost about 6 months delay and many $Billions (and will make the 737 Max statistically safer than all previous 737s). How much more better do you expect Boeing to be and at what cost?

Have a great day,


Very good information, thank you. Can you explain the 5 bit flip failure and how it fits into the MAX saga? I see that you are championing Boeing in a sense - but do you not agree that Boeing has made some egregious errors in this whole nightmare, and it is human nature not to trust a second or third time after repeated disappointments and poor information conveyance, to say the least about MCAS et al.? After the fake 787 episode and now this, how can you possibly trust Boeing? They really played with human lives, and lost.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:30 pm

2175301 wrote:
My view is that Boeing tried to be a good corporate citizen and demonstated that they were willing to do "better" with accepting the 5 bit flip failure and agreeing to change the computers. That cost about 6 months delay and many $Billions (and will make the 737 Max statistically safer than all previous 737s).

This is your view because there are no prove that this is so simple.
My view is that something more fundamental it hitting the progress really hard to motivate a so abrupt production halt.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:44 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
2175301 wrote:
My view is that Boeing tried to be a good corporate citizen and demonstated that they were willing to do "better" with accepting the 5 bit flip failure and agreeing to change the computers. That cost about 6 months delay and many $Billions (and will make the 737 Max statistically safer than all previous 737s).

This is your view because there are no prove that this is so simple.
My view is that something more fundamental it hitting the progress really hard to motivate a so abrupt production halt.

In my opinion the production halt is accepting RTS isn't near term. It could be lack of clarity or it could be something found. I believe my friends (rumor mill) would have let me know about the later. I've been in test engineering too long not to know someone who would spill more information.

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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:46 pm

Suspended indefinitely?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:48 pm

Hopefully not. Still possible.
Fix that thing now!
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:49 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
2175301 wrote:
My view is that Boeing tried to be a good corporate citizen and demonstated that they were willing to do "better" with accepting the 5 bit flip failure and agreeing to change the computers. That cost about 6 months delay and many $Billions (and will make the 737 Max statistically safer than all previous 737s).

This is your view because there are no prove that this is so simple.
My view is that something more fundamental it hitting the progress really hard to motivate a so abrupt production halt.

FWIW, Boeing has been warning about halting production for at least six months now, over the last two quarterly earnings calls:

"As our efforts to support the 737 Max's safe return to service continue, we will continue to assess our production plans," Mr Muilenburg told investors in a conference call.

"Should our estimate of the anticipated return to service change, we might need to consider possible further rate reductions or other options, including a temporary shutdown of the Max production."

Ref: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49108807 dated 25 July 2019
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:54 pm

I think that MCAS should have tripple input redundancy, it has to work during all flights.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:00 pm

2175301 wrote:
Interested wrote:
But surely Boeing also wants the best as well at this stage?

To be whiter than white and regain everybody's trust?

This is no normal situation.


In my opinion, that is why Boeing went along with the statistically highly improbable 5 bit flip results, and agreed to change the computer structures.

The current problem is, in my opinion, that the regulators are focused on "more better yet" instead of just agreeing to "good enough"

"Good enough" is defined in the regulations.

As far as various different regulator agencies saying that Boeing has not yet submitted a complete package for review. You need to understand that said complete package only exist after the regulator is convinced that Boeing has answered every question they have asked, or agreed to drop the question.

In November Boeing submitted the package using their best information on what the regulator wanted (the regulator never tells you exactly what is needed). The regulator concluded that the package was incomplete and asked Boeing to submit more information. Boeing said that would be done within a week. I have no doubt that happened as I've been though a similar process enough times with the NRC (and the FAA and NRC regulations and way the agencies work are very similar once you ignore that one is regulating radiation exposure and the other is regulating aircraft crashes). We even use the same FMEA and Root Cause investigation process (and some of the controls in the nuclear world come from companies who make controls for aviation - and they only use one FMEA form for both industries).

However, the FAA has opened the process up to Brazil, Canada, EASA, and allowed China at least Observer status (and likely comment status); so now anyone from those countries can request more information and ask more questions. Then they can request more information and ask more questions when they get the documents and answers they requested.... This can literally go on forever if they get focused on chasing perfection (more better) - instead of just accepting what is good enough. Through the process the effective standards that Boeing must meet changes (as they change in the Nuclear world where I worked and still do occasional consulting).

Hence the comment from my acquaintance that I posted yesterday about that Boeing did not know what was actually required yet as the standards keep changing. That implies that the regulators are still asking questions and requesting more testing. It does not mean that those questions and answers or more testing are required for the regulatory required "good enough."

I agree with Lightsaber that Boeing by shutting down the line will refocus the regulators back to what is "good enough" versus continued chasing of what is in my personal experience minutia that does not affect anything in real life. That will wind down the continued digging and questions - and Boeing will be told what the final standards are and what is a "complete" submittal package.

My view is that Boeing tried to be a good corporate citizen and demonstated that they were willing to do "better" with accepting the 5 bit flip failure and agreeing to change the computers. That cost about 6 months delay and many $Billions (and will make the 737 Max statistically safer than all previous 737s). How much more better do you expect Boeing to be and at what cost?

Have a great day,

Same old same old.

Demonstrate that 5 bit flips is not in accordance with the requirement. Explain why Boeing/FAA/EASA would continue with this subterfuge if it isn't.

Software audit has still not been completed. Why because further failures have been identified during Boeing testing. New document suite will be required for revised solution.

Common Mode FFC problem is not wishing for the best. This is a base level failure of design.

12.1 software MCAS limitation is ineffective and design is still Catastrophic. This is base level failure of design.

The Pilot group evaluation of New/Revised Procedures and training has 'failed'. Half of pilots did not respond as Boeing expectation. Change is likely, repeat evaluation a minimum.

EASA expectations have been clear since May. None prevent Boeing submitting a compliant design.

You need to go look at the standards for Functional Hazard Analysis and System Safety Assessment. This isn't completion of some dodgy pre-printed forms as you keep trying to make out. In fact the base level FMEA activity was never completed for MCAS in the first place.

No regulations have been changed and compliance is all that is required. Call that good enough if you wish.

'Bitter and twisted' is never a good starting point to get credible opinion.

Ray
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:00 pm

spinotter wrote:
2175301 wrote:
[
Deleted for readability: See above for full text


Very good information, thank you. Can you explain the 5 bit flip failure and how it fits into the MAX saga? I see that you are championing Boeing in a sense - but do you not agree that Boeing has made some egregious errors in this whole nightmare, and it is human nature not to trust a second or third time after repeated disappointments and poor information conveyance, to say the least about MCAS et al.? After the fake 787 episode and now this, how can you possibly trust Boeing? They really played with human lives, and lost.


I have posted multiple time on this:

Boeing made a mistake - the mistake was made at the FMEA stage of the process. They mistakenly classified a failure of MCAS V1 at less than catastrophic; and with the lower safety classification everything else flowed from that (and were allowed by the regulations with that lower safety classification).

Boeing has admitted that they had incorrect assumptions that went into the FMEA.

Please note that this almost certainly not from any intentional or criminal act. FMEA's are not easy to do, often depend on assumptions, and require at least most members of a team to agree with the rating and reasoning. They are not an exact science. They are in fact the best tool ever invented (in my opinion) to drive improvements to safety. Please search for my previous long explanation on this process. I've actually been on the review team for multiple FMEA's (I have a working understanding of this process, and regulatory reviews).

I have previously posted that the 737Max was appropriately grounded for this issue. I also believe that it was functionally fixed with MCAS V2, complete with FAA flight testing, in June of this year; which is also when the FAA pulled a 5 bit flip test which "failed." The specifically selected 5 very specific "worst case combination" computer switches to change simultaneously from a cosmic ray event, and the pilots could not adequately respond to all of that going wrong at once. If you go back a few pages you will find my explanation that was way beyond what the regulations required (I have been told by industry people familiar with the computer in question that the statistically plausible number to meet regulations would have been either 2 or 3 simultaneous bit flips from as single cosmic ray event. I believe the FAA did this based on their perceived need to "get tough" with Boeing, and require Boeing to go beyond just "good enough." Given the political environment there was no practical way for Boeing to even question this - and they had no real choice but to agree to this at the time.

In my opinion had they progressed with just certifying the MCAS fix in June (which is all the regulations required "good enough", that the software review, training, documentation, etc, would likely have been completed by the end of August.

However, as stated above Boeing wanted to show that they were good guys and would be better than good enough so they went along with the bit flip computer changes. Which then opened up every function of the flight computer software to potential challenges by the FAA (and now the other country regulatory bodies) as the "software package" is at least a complete order of magnitude more complex than just MCAS (which is rather short and simple). Also, pilots must now be trained on how the new computer system functions in addition to MCAS functions.


To conclude: In my opinion Boeing goofed up the FMEA (no criminal intent - just an honest mistake). The 737Max was appropriately grounded for the MCAS issue. But, the MCAS issue was functionally fixed in June, and should have been certified by the end of August even with an enhanced oversight process.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:06 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Interested wrote:
But surely Boeing also wants the best as well at this stage?

To be whiter than white and regain everybody's trust?

This is no normal situation.


In my opinion, that is why Boeing went along with the statistically highly improbable 5 bit flip results, and agreed to change the computer structures.

The current problem is, in my opinion, that the regulators are focused on "more better yet" instead of just agreeing to "good enough"

"Good enough" is defined in the regulations.

As far as various different regulator agencies saying that Boeing has not yet submitted a complete package for review. You need to understand that said complete package only exist after the regulator is convinced that Boeing has answered every question they have asked, or agreed to drop the question.

In November Boeing submitted the package using their best information on what the regulator wanted (the regulator never tells you exactly what is needed). The regulator concluded that the package was incomplete and asked Boeing to submit more information. Boeing said that would be done within a week. I have no doubt that happened as I've been though a similar process enough times with the NRC (and the FAA and NRC regulations and way the agencies work are very similar once you ignore that one is regulating radiation exposure and the other is regulating aircraft crashes). We even use the same FMEA and Root Cause investigation process (and some of the controls in the nuclear world come from companies who make controls for aviation - and they only use one FMEA form for both industries).

However, the FAA has opened the process up to Brazil, Canada, EASA, and allowed China at least Observer status (and likely comment status); so now anyone from those countries can request more information and ask more questions. Then they can request more information and ask more questions when they get the documents and answers they requested.... This can literally go on forever if they get focused on chasing perfection (more better) - instead of just accepting what is good enough. Through the process the effective standards that Boeing must meet changes (as they change in the Nuclear world where I worked and still do occasional consulting).

Hence the comment from my acquaintance that I posted yesterday about that Boeing did not know what was actually required yet as the standards keep changing. That implies that the regulators are still asking questions and requesting more testing. It does not mean that those questions and answers or more testing are required for the regulatory required "good enough."

I agree with Lightsaber that Boeing by shutting down the line will refocus the regulators back to what is "good enough" versus continued chasing of what is in my personal experience minutia that does not affect anything in real life. That will wind down the continued digging and questions - and Boeing will be told what the final standards are and what is a "complete" submittal package.

My view is that Boeing tried to be a good corporate citizen and demonstated that they were willing to do "better" with accepting the 5 bit flip failure and agreeing to change the computers. That cost about 6 months delay and many $Billions (and will make the 737 Max statistically safer than all previous 737s). How much more better do you expect Boeing to be and at what cost?

Have a great day,

Same old same old.

Demonstrate that 5 bit flips is not in accordance with the requirement. Explain why Boeing/FAA/EASA would continue with this subterfuge if it isn't.

Software audit has still not been completed. Why because further failures have been identified during Boeing testing. New document suite will be required for revised solution.

Common Mode FFC problem is not wishing for the best. This is a base level failure of design.

12.1 software MCAS limitation is ineffective and design is still Catastrophic. This is base level failure of design.

The Pilot group evaluation of New/Revised Procedures and training has 'failed'. Half of pilots did not respond as Boeing expectation. Change is likely, repeat evaluation a minimum.

EASA expectations have been clear since May. None prevent Boeing submitting a compliant design.

You need to go look at the standards for Functional Hazard Analysis and System Safety Assessment. This isn't completion of some dodgy pre-printed forms as you keep trying to make out. In fact the base level FMEA activity was never completed for MCAS in the first place.

No regulations have been changed and compliance is all that is required. Call that good enough if you wish.

'Bitter and twisted' is never a good starting point to get credible opinion.

Ray


I concur. After reading JTAR report, it is clear Boeing FMEA is a botch-fest. Apparently there is no aircraft level Failure analysis done, each sub-system did their own failure analysis. So the concurrent effects of AoA sensor failure on 1. MCAS 2. Air data system 3. Stall prevention system are not catpured in failure analysis

This is deep process level issue
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:13 pm

The FAA has every right to insist on what they think is required for safe operation. The bit flip happened with their pilots at the controls. FAA's job is not to make Boeing's life easy.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
Noshow wrote:
There must be a reason why the Boeing stock doesn't go seriously down? Maybe they know the announced production stop is just a bluff? Wouldn't the market react more visible if Boeing would really burn the bridges to their MAX supply chain now?

Maybe you should consider the market has already factored a lot of the MAX hit into the stock price, and the reality is that while Boeing is taking a big hit on MAX they have more than enough resources to cover the hit and more than just MAX in their product portfolio?

The story being told on this thread of various undisclosed serious problems and a one year or more hit to RTS is speculation, many readers treat it as fact, but the market does not.

Some times a cigar is just a cigar, but turning it into something else makes for a better story.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=boeing+st ... ORM=CHROMN

Boeing's stock price tanked with the grounding.
Was $440.62 per share and rising.
Now: $326.93 per share company worth $188 billion

The company lost 26% of the share price. About $65 billion in value if I assume constant number of shares (close enough).

I'd day the MAX is mostly baked in.

To others:
Some here make quite huge claims. I believe the MAX will have RTS. If not, about a quarter million people need new jobs and a huge chunk of Aerospace is bankrupted. I also believe the FAA is professional, but a bit political. It has done a phenomenal job making aviation safe.

I notice quite a few posters say they won't fly them. Questions:
How many narrowbody flights in 2019: Myself 10 round trips, about half my normal.
How many purchased last minute or 1st class? Myself 2, normal is about 12 round trips as a premium customer.
How many Boeing Aircraft: 40% of flights (752 and 739, huh... first year in 15+ years no 738 or 73G). 40% Airbus (A321, A320, and A319) and 20% RJ.

This is Boeing's stock. Investors see the $1.5 billion/month in cash burn reduction. They do not see the pain of restarting the supply chain.

This is like stopping a bunch of parallel freight trains.
Landing gear and engines take forever to stop (a year) and start back up (2 years).
Most parts can be stopped quickly, but will take 6 months to be fully back at speed.
There are some that are slower to stop and restart, but not as bad as engines (Spirit).

This is a facinating decision. I believe this has gone on so long Pilot training and hiring will be another bottleneck. For example, AA pilots now might be flying an Airbus. When the quantity of 737s ramps up, AA will need more pilots, which means RJ promotions and the RJ airlines must hire more pilots.

There is 800+ grounded Aircraft. That is a need for 10,000 to 11,000 pilots, minus retired Aircraft. So we are talking a need for, I guess, about 5,000 pilots.

The system is setup to accept 1,200 Aircraft per year, about half growth, so 600 growth or so.

When 800 MAX, plus MAX production, plus production of: A220, E2, A320NEO.

Yea.... I think airlines pushed back on delivery rates. I'm certain that was part of the WN settlement. That would be another factor in the production halt.

Airlines want MAXs flying. But, for example, SpiceJet is operating with pilots near the maximum allowed hours on leased 737NG. There 14 grounded MAX need about 160 additional pilots for RTS. When there is RTS, the 737 pilot and support (Mechanic) markets will be in high demand.

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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:22 pm

2175301 wrote:
To conclude: In my opinion Boeing goofed up the FMEA (no criminal intent - just an honest mistake). The 737Max was appropriately grounded for the MCAS issue. But, the MCAS issue was functionally fixed in June, and should have been certified by the end of August even with an enhanced oversight process.


I agree. That is my opinion on the matter as well. To me it's the most plausible explanation for the chain of events we've encountered since the summer as you laid out.

XRAYretired wrote:
Same old same old.


I agree. Same old stuff. Fallacious assumptions. The enemy of the enemy is always right (EASA, currently the FAA in an about face, etc.).

When preconceived conclusions are fixed, even evidence to the contrary don't change them.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
2175301 wrote:
My view is that Boeing tried to be a good corporate citizen and demonstated that they were willing to do "better" with accepting the 5 bit flip failure and agreeing to change the computers. That cost about 6 months delay and many $Billions (and will make the 737 Max statistically safer than all previous 737s).

This is your view because there are no prove that this is so simple.
My view is that something more fundamental it hitting the progress really hard to motivate a so abrupt production halt.

In my opinion the production halt is accepting RTS isn't near term. It could be lack of clarity or it could be something found. I believe my friends (rumor mill) would have let me know about the later. I've been in test engineering too long not to know someone who would spill more information.

Lightsaber

Read Mr Marko's email and presentation again. There were at least two fundamental problems that TC were aware of 6th November. That's enough for at least one more round of changes without the conspiracy theories.

Claims of insider info always sound hollow to me.

Ray
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:34 pm

Interesting article from NYT quotes SAFRAN exec mirroring Lightsaber's earlier comments:

Safran, a French company that manufactures engines for the Max in partnership with G.E., plans to cut production in response to the suspension, making enough material for 15 planes a month, down from 42.

“We are in a crisis mode,”
Philippe Petitcolin, the company’s chief executive, told the French newspaper L’usine nouvelle. “Any day we do nothing now costs us money.”


Some other impacts are listed:

Boeing is also the largest customer of the aerospace unit of Senior Plc, a British company whose California-based subsidiary makes tubing for the Max. Spirit AeroSystems, an $8 billion company based in Kansas that manufactures the plane’s fuselage, relies on Boeing for 80 percent of its revenue. And the grounding of the Max has strained G.E.’s finances, reducing its cash flow by $400 million per quarter, company officials said in August.



And yet, for some perspective:

“It might shave a tenth or two of G.D.P. growth because of the lost production,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But in the grand scheme of things it’s not going to change the trajectory of the economy.”


It does drive home the point that business leaders HATE uncertainty.

Ref: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/18/busi ... liers.html
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:39 pm

I have conducted process hazard analysis for chemical plants (people are wary of large smoking holes in their neighborhood). You go through each valve, pipe, instrument and input. Identify what would happen under a set of criteria (left open, fail high, fail low, environmental etc) and then state how any negative consequence is mitigated. I imagine something similar is necessary for an airplane, don't tell me its more complicated than a chemical plant. the fact that this was missed means everything is now to be gone over.

This was built on a commercial decision, followed by engineering decisions. there is a lot of moving parts and I think people are miss remembering the order of developments of this story with information not available to us publically at some of the points people seem to think it was. It took a long time for Boeing to tell us what happened.

For people who are talking of political preasure can someone present me on their risk analysis how many jobs is worth how many lives. People talk about risk-benefit but I was wondering what was acceptable? Low and high are not really cutting it for me. I work in an environment where a design flaw resulted in a smoking hole and deaths and no here talks about risk-benefit, but trying to mitigate every possible thing they can. Maybe because the people making those calculations are sitting near where that hole would be rather than it happening to someone else halfway around the world. I can see out my window someone who decided to push off their risk to someone living next door. You might have seen a movie about it recently. Or am I meant to do a cost risk analysis when I drink water?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:40 pm

estorilm wrote:
uta999 wrote:
If in March, Boeing decided to put 787 style FBW systems into a new MAX frame they would be half-way through to certification by now.

In addition to being completely impossible and taking years to re-engineer nearly every system on the aircraft (and build / program all of the required flight envelopes and behaviors in sims / computer models) it would also require new training for every crew and maintenance employee around the world who operate the type.

Oh yeah, and you've got approximately 800 MAX's built which would need to be torn-apart and rebuilt at a staggering cost. Literally impossible.

Now if you said "they should have put a 787-style FBW system into a new 737 frame instead of building the MAX in the first place years ago" that would probably be more accurate.

The penny pinchers saw a very large threat in market share of the upcoming NEO and honestly, they had to react immediately. If there was a clean-sheet, they would have mostly given up a segment they've traditionally dominated for.. well.. the history of jet travel, for at least 10 years till the new design reached EIS.

Not giving Boeing a pass either way, just an observation. They really had their hands tied a few years ago.


They had to react immediately? Boeing had almost 30 years to come up with a modern competitor to the A320. Not just that but the plane hadn't been updated with new engines since it's introduction in 1988. With a new engine generation available, what were Boeing management exactly thinking? That Airbus would continue to sell a 30 year old plane for another 20 years?

It isn't like Airbus blindsided Boeing. If they did not anticipate a re-engined A320 (something Boeing had done to the 737 already twice) around the 2015-2020 tmeframe, this takes incompetence to a whole next level.

Revelation has been making this point repeatedly, they lacked the time for a clean sheat, and the investment wasn't worth it. The investment wasn't worth it indeed since all the grandfathering and regulatory waivers meant they could milk the 737 like they'd could never milk a clean sheet. This is actually where lax regulations amount to hidden state subsidies as Boeing was able to sell a much cheaper to fabricate plane.
Last edited by checklist350 on Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:41 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
Same old same old.
Demonstrate that 5 bit flips is not in accordance with the requirement. Explain why Boeing/FAA/EASA would continue with this subterfuge if it isn't.
Ray

Shocking that Boeing did not know that when the NG was designed, and both they and the FAA overlooked it during the MAX design.
My understanding is that the bit flip is only a concern now because the MAX has MCAS which is automated and can trigger a nose down action. The risk of bit flip exist on the NG as well, so not sure which requirement it was in prior to the fatal crashes, that it was added we all know since it was used in the June test of MCAS.

XRAYretired wrote:
Software audit has still not been completed. Why because further failures have been identified during Boeing testing. New document suite will be required for revised solution.

Would be nice to have a source for this, strange that the no one has leaked anything, one would think that with Boeing being the flavor of the month, someone at Boeing would have already given out the bad news, unless Boeing has done a shut down to prevent someone spilling the beans?
 
XRAYretired
Posts: 870
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:21 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:46 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
2175301 wrote:
To conclude: In my opinion Boeing goofed up the FMEA (no criminal intent - just an honest mistake). The 737Max was appropriately grounded for the MCAS issue. But, the MCAS issue was functionally fixed in June, and should have been certified by the end of August even with an enhanced oversight process.


I agree. That is my opinion on the matter as well. To me it's the most plausible explanation for the chain of events we've encountered since the summer as you laid out.

XRAYretired wrote:
Same old same old.


I agree. Same old stuff. Fallacious assumptions. The enemy of the enemy is always right (EASA, currently the FAA in an about face, etc.).

When preconceived conclusions are fixed, even evidence to the contrary don't change them.

Same old fanboy stuff from you as well. Mr Marko's presentation clearly points to a fundamental problem existing with12.1 software so no, MCAS was not finished either before or after the BitFlip testing.

No matter how hard you try, you cannot make published facts go away by partial quoting, only influence the gullible.
 
checklist350
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting article from NYT quotes SAFRAN exec mirroring Lightsaber's earlier comments:

Safran, a French company that manufactures engines for the Max in partnership with G.E., plans to cut production in response to the suspension, making enough material for 15 planes a month, down from 42.

“We are in a crisis mode,”
Philippe Petitcolin, the company’s chief executive, told the French newspaper L’usine nouvelle. “Any day we do nothing now costs us money.”




Not too long ago airbus got the door in their face for increased LEAP-1A engine output. Seems they had their priorities straight.

Karma can be a bitch...
Last edited by checklist350 on Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1756
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:48 pm

I have looked but havent seen an answer one way or another, what is the maintanence schedule for a parked 737? Looks like doors and edges are sealed. Assume they are drained of fluid? Do ties have to be rotated or do they just write those off and put new on them once its ready to fly?

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
All the pictures of planes I saw in Moses Lake had engines hanging off them, so a gradual reboot should be manageable, IMO.


I had a trip to Seattle in October. We visited RNT, BFI, PAE and Moses Lake. We saw a lot of MAXes and every single one had engines on - not surprising I guess, given they've all (aside from a couple at RNT fresh off the line) completed normal test flights, then flown to BFI, PAE, Moses Lake and Kelly Field.


Can you send out invites for next trip, you visit all the plane lover dream spots!
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:50 pm

Noshow wrote:
The FAA has every right to insist on what they think is required for safe operation. The bit flip happened with their pilots at the controls.

Not as far as what was reported by the FAA themselves, they had their pilots specifically initiate the bit flip failure because they wanted to see the effect on MCAS
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:50 pm

2175301 wrote:
Boeing made a mistake - the mistake was made at the FMEA stage of the process. They mistakenly classified a failure of MCAS V1 at less than catastrophic; and with the lower safety classification everything else flowed from that (and were allowed by the regulations with that lower safety classification).

Boeing has admitted that they had incorrect assumptions that went into the FMEA.

Please note that this almost certainly not from any intentional or criminal act. FMEA's are not easy to do, often depend on assumptions, and require at least most members of a team to agree with the rating and reasoning. They are not an exact science. They are in fact the best tool ever invented (in my opinion) to drive improvements to safety. Please search for my previous long explanation on this process. I've actually been on the review team for multiple FMEA's (I have a working understanding of this process, and regulatory reviews).

I have previously posted that the 737Max was appropriately grounded for this issue. I also believe that it was functionally fixed with MCAS V2, complete with FAA flight testing, in June of this year; which is also when the FAA pulled a 5 bit flip test which "failed."

If you combine FMEA with RVTM (Requirements Verification Test Matrix), I agree best tools for safety.

A big mistake was made in classification. All this thread is over that.

I too believe the issue was solved this summer.

The 5-bit flip is not going to happen. It is more likely a meteor smacks down a plane in flight.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2569
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting article from NYT quotes SAFRAN exec mirroring Lightsaber's earlier comments:

Safran, a French company that manufactures engines for the Max in partnership with G.E., plans to cut production in response to the suspension, making enough material for 15 planes a month, down from 42.

“We are in a crisis mode,”
Philippe Petitcolin, the company’s chief executive, told the French newspaper L’usine nouvelle. “Any day we do nothing now costs us money.”


Some other impacts are listed:

Boeing is also the largest customer of the aerospace unit of Senior Plc, a British company whose California-based subsidiary makes tubing for the Max. Spirit AeroSystems, an $8 billion company based in Kansas that manufactures the plane’s fuselage, relies on Boeing for 80 percent of its revenue. And the grounding of the Max has strained G.E.’s finances, reducing its cash flow by $400 million per quarter, company officials said in August.



And yet, for some perspective:

“It might shave a tenth or two of G.D.P. growth because of the lost production,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But in the grand scheme of things it’s not going to change the trajectory of the economy.”


It does drive home the point that business leaders HATE uncertainty.

Ref: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/18/busi ... liers.html



Interesting reading. Finally some concrete information on the effect on suppliers / vendors.

As a side note, the point about uncertainty is very important. The reason nations like Singapore have done so well business wise, is not only because of market oriented policy, it's political stability and certainty through decades.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting article from NYT quotes SAFRAN exec mirroring Lightsaber's earlier comments:

Safran, a French company that manufactures engines for the Max in partnership with G.E., plans to cut production in response to the suspension, making enough material for 15 planes a month, down from 42.

“We are in a crisis mode,”
Philippe Petitcolin, the company’s chief executive, told the French newspaper L’usine nouvelle. “Any day we do nothing now costs us money.”


Some other impacts are listed:

Boeing is also the largest customer of the aerospace unit of Senior Plc, a British company whose California-based subsidiary makes tubing for the Max. Spirit AeroSystems, an $8 billion company based in Kansas that manufactures the plane’s fuselage, relies on Boeing for 80 percent of its revenue. And the grounding of the Max has strained G.E.’s finances, reducing its cash flow by $400 million per quarter, company officials said in August.





It's bad business practice to be an one-trick pony.
 
planecane
Posts: 1573
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:57 pm

Noshow wrote:
The FAA has every right to insist on what they think is required for safe operation. The bit flip happened with their pilots at the controls. FAA's job is not to make Boeing's life easy.

No, it didn't. They caused the conditions on purpose to see how the pilots and aircraft would respond. It didn't "happen."
 
XRAYretired
Posts: 870
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:21 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:03 pm

par13del wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
Same old same old.
Demonstrate that 5 bit flips is not in accordance with the requirement. Explain why Boeing/FAA/EASA would continue with this subterfuge if it isn't.
Ray

Shocking that Boeing did not know that when the NG was designed, and both they and the FAA overlooked it during the MAX design.
My understanding is that the bit flip is only a concern now because the MAX has MCAS which is automated and can trigger a nose down action. The risk of bit flip exist on the NG as well, so not sure which requirement it was in prior to the fatal crashes, that it was added we all know since it was used in the June test of MCAS.

XRAYretired wrote:
Software audit has still not been completed. Why because further failures have been identified during Boeing testing. New document suite will be required for revised solution.

Would be nice to have a source for this, strange that the no one has leaked anything, one would think that with Boeing being the flavor of the month, someone at Boeing would have already given out the bad news, unless Boeing has done a shut down to prevent someone spilling the beans?

BitFlip requirement as not been added. It will have been there for NG as well. The catastrophic failure modes added with MCAS were not mitigated by analysis or test.

Software audit not completed was reported last week in relation to the congressional hearing activity. I'm sure I posted at the time.

Ray

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