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9w748capt
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:04 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
planecane wrote:
I don't think the other controls are feasible with grandfathering because of using direct control via cables as part of the redundancy.

I don't think the 737 has enough hydraulic systems to just be "converted" to FBW. Pretty sure you need 3 and the 737 only has 2. Adding another hydraulic system would completely change the systems architecture of the plane.
Virtual737 wrote:
it would never be done. Might as well start from scratch. I've cut the nose off a 737. We're not talking 1 or 2 cables.


Ugh. And it would also not be feasible to make a flight control computer operate those cables and pulleys?

9w748capt wrote:
This! I'm surprised you're allowed to post such content here. Usually defending foreign pilots is a bankable offense here.


I'm so sorry! I'm in a really sorry state now! :cry2:


Bannable! Damn autocorrect...
 
SteelChair
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:09 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Interesting article from NYT quotes SAFRAN exec mirroring Lightsaber's earlier comments:

Safran, a French company that manufactures engines for the Max in partnership with G.E., plans to cut production in response to the suspension, making enough material for 15 planes a month, down from 42.

“We are in a crisis mode,”
Philippe Petitcolin, the company’s chief executive, told the French newspaper L’usine nouvelle. “Any day we do nothing now costs us money.”


Some other impacts are listed:

Boeing is also the largest customer of the aerospace unit of Senior Plc, a British company whose California-based subsidiary makes tubing for the Max. Spirit AeroSystems, an $8 billion company based in Kansas that manufactures the plane’s fuselage, relies on Boeing for 80 percent of its revenue. And the grounding of the Max has strained G.E.’s finances, reducing its cash flow by $400 million per quarter, company officials said in August.




It's bad business practice to be an one-trick pony.


Witness Southwest Airlines and the Boeing Company.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:13 pm

I think the moderators need to open a new post. There are about 4850 posts spread through 98 pages. The 737 MAX is NOT going anywhere for sometime. It should have never been built. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:15 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
I've not seen or read any document from Boeing to suppliers / vendors or to their work force regarding this. I heard from a Boeing employee in Renton about 24 hours ago, no information from management on a shutdown.

It's my belief that this announced shutdown in January is a warning to FAA, Congress, the White House and Wall Street about what *could* happen.

I'll believe they're serious when I see the announcements to the work force or suppliers. Right now it's just statements to the press.


Most likely, Boeing needed to announce to the markets of a material change, then they are required to provide WARN notices at least 30 days in advance. Basically there can be no announcement of specific layoffs until the WARN notices are issued. I am sure those are going out as we speak. From there notices to the unions need to go out per their contract. Similar, each suppliers contract needs to be pulled and reviewed, then they need to do WARN notices. Negotiations to come, it will not be fun.

https://www.doleta.gov/programs/factsht ... 6.2019.pdf

Every worker involved with the 737 has just locked up their wallet, even if they are suddenly going into training on how to expedite getting planes delivered & flying ASAP once there is RTS, but I doubt minimal or no overtime. So the Puget Sound area will see a noticeable contraction in retail, real estate, car purchases, restaurants, etc. Local governments are puckering as sales tax revenue is taking a hit. Aerospace jobs in an area probably have a 2.5 to 3 economic multiplier as the product exports, and money imports so the most stimulative. Well, for each 10K Aerospace jobs on layoff there will be 25K others. Spirit and other 1st tier suppliers will cause impacts in their location in a similar manner.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Boeing made a mistake - the mistake was made at the FMEA stage of the process. They mistakenly classified a failure of MCAS V1 at less than catastrophic; and with the lower safety classification everything else flowed from that (and were allowed by the regulations with that lower safety classification).

Boeing has admitted that they had incorrect assumptions that went into the FMEA.

Please note that this almost certainly not from any intentional or criminal act. FMEA's are not easy to do, often depend on assumptions, and require at least most members of a team to agree with the rating and reasoning. They are not an exact science. They are in fact the best tool ever invented (in my opinion) to drive improvements to safety. Please search for my previous long explanation on this process. I've actually been on the review team for multiple FMEA's (I have a working understanding of this process, and regulatory reviews).

I have previously posted that the 737Max was appropriately grounded for this issue. I also believe that it was functionally fixed with MCAS V2, complete with FAA flight testing, in June of this year; which is also when the FAA pulled a 5 bit flip test which "failed."

If you combine FMEA with RVTM (Requirements Verification Test Matrix), I agree best tools for safety.

A big mistake was made in classification. All this thread is over that.

I too believe the issue was solved this summer.

The 5-bit flip is not going to happen. It is more likely a meteor smacks down a plane in flight.

Lightsaber

You don't get past first base for RTCA/DO-178 compliance.

Again, read Mr Marko's email. Its in front of eyes. Non-compliance of 12.1 software with its base requirement.

The meteor thing is old wives tale. But, hey, if it floats your boat.

Ray
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting article from NYT quotes SAFRAN exec mirroring Lightsaber's earlier comments:

Safran, a French company that manufactures engines for the Max in partnership with G.E., plans to cut production in response to the suspension, making enough material for 15 planes a month, down from 42.

“We are in a crisis mode,”
Philippe Petitcolin, the company’s chief executive, told the French newspaper L’usine nouvelle. “Any day we do nothing now costs us money.”


Some other impacts are listed:

Boeing is also the largest customer of the aerospace unit of Senior Plc, a British company whose California-based subsidiary makes tubing for the Max. Spirit AeroSystems, an $8 billion company based in Kansas that manufactures the plane’s fuselage, relies on Boeing for 80 percent of its revenue. And the grounding of the Max has strained G.E.’s finances, reducing its cash flow by $400 million per quarter, company officials said in August.



And yet, for some perspective:

“It might shave a tenth or two of G.D.P. growth because of the lost production,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But in the grand scheme of things it’s not going to change the trajectory of the economy.”


It does drive home the point that business leaders HATE uncertainty.

Ref: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/18/busi ... liers.html


That's true. CFM cannot halt production because restarting takes 2 years or so. So the only option left is lowering production and absorb the costs.
Good moaning!
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Noshow wrote:
There must be a reason why the Boeing stock doesn't go seriously down? Maybe they know the announced production stop is just a bluff? Wouldn't the market react more visible if Boeing would really burn the bridges to their MAX supply chain now?

Maybe you should consider the market has already factored a lot of the MAX hit into the stock price, and the reality is that while Boeing is taking a big hit on MAX they have more than enough resources to cover the hit and more than just MAX in their product portfolio?

The story being told on this thread of various undisclosed serious problems and a one year or more hit to RTS is speculation, many readers treat it as fact, but the market does not.

Some times a cigar is just a cigar, but turning it into something else makes for a better story.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=boeing+st ... ORM=CHROMN

Boeing's stock price tanked with the grounding.
Was $440.62 per share and rising.
Now: $326.93 per share company worth $188 billion

The company lost 26% of the share price. About $65 billion in value if I assume constant number of shares (close enough).

I'd day the MAX is mostly baked in.

To others:
Some here make quite huge claims. I believe the MAX will have RTS. If not, about a quarter million people need new jobs and a huge chunk of Aerospace is bankrupted. I also believe the FAA is professional, but a bit political. It has done a phenomenal job making aviation safe.

I notice quite a few posters say they won't fly them. Questions:
How many narrowbody flights in 2019: Myself 10 round trips, about half my normal.
How many purchased last minute or 1st class? Myself 2, normal is about 12 round trips as a premium customer.
How many Boeing Aircraft: 40% of flights (752 and 739, huh... first year in 15+ years no 738 or 73G). 40% Airbus (A321, A320, and A319) and 20% RJ.

This is Boeing's stock. Investors see the $1.5 billion/month in cash burn reduction. They do not see the pain of restarting the supply chain.

This is like stopping a bunch of parallel freight trains.
Landing gear and engines take forever to stop (a year) and start back up (2 years).
Most parts can be stopped quickly, but will take 6 months to be fully back at speed.
There are some that are slower to stop and restart, but not as bad as engines (Spirit).

This is a facinating decision. I believe this has gone on so long Pilot training and hiring will be another bottleneck. For example, AA pilots now might be flying an Airbus. When the quantity of 737s ramps up, AA will need more pilots, which means RJ promotions and the RJ airlines must hire more pilots.

There is 800+ grounded Aircraft. That is a need for 10,000 to 11,000 pilots, minus retired Aircraft. So we are talking a need for, I guess, about 5,000 pilots.

The system is setup to accept 1,200 Aircraft per year, about half growth, so 600 growth or so.

When 800 MAX, plus MAX production, plus production of: A220, E2, A320NEO.

Yea.... I think airlines pushed back on delivery rates. I'm certain that was part of the WN settlement. That would be another factor in the production halt.

Airlines want MAXs flying. But, for example, SpiceJet is operating with pilots near the maximum allowed hours on leased 737NG. There 14 grounded MAX need about 160 additional pilots for RTS. When there is RTS, the 737 pilot and support (Mechanic) markets will be in high demand.

Lightsaber


Great post - but I'm not sure what you meant about Airlines pushing back on Delivery rates? They want the Undelivered Ones faster or slower?

If it's faster the interesting thing is that with the line stoppage Boeing has 12,000 employees that are very familiar with the MAX that can get the 300 that are in Airlines hands flying very quickly and get the 400 undelivered in Customer's hands and cash in Boeing's pockets so they can support there Suppliers as production ramps up after RTS.

Or are you saying they want them slower and then the MAX is likely to only get back to Rate 50+ production a year or two after RTS?
Last edited by morrisond on Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LDRA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:26 pm

Leap 1A and 1B not built on the same line?
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:29 pm

They caused the conditions on purpose to see how the pilots and aircraft would respond. It didn't "happen."


The unintentional freeze happened after the intentional bit flip test.
 
estorilm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:34 pm

checklist350 wrote:
estorilm wrote:
uta999 wrote:
If in March, Boeing decided to put 787 style FBW systems into a new MAX frame they would be half-way through to certification by now.

In addition to being completely impossible and taking years to re-engineer nearly every system on the aircraft (and build / program all of the required flight envelopes and behaviors in sims / computer models) it would also require new training for every crew and maintenance employee around the world who operate the type.

Oh yeah, and you've got approximately 800 MAX's built which would need to be torn-apart and rebuilt at a staggering cost. Literally impossible.

Now if you said "they should have put a 787-style FBW system into a new 737 frame instead of building the MAX in the first place years ago" that would probably be more accurate.

The penny pinchers saw a very large threat in market share of the upcoming NEO and honestly, they had to react immediately. If there was a clean-sheet, they would have mostly given up a segment they've traditionally dominated for.. well.. the history of jet travel, for at least 10 years till the new design reached EIS.

Not giving Boeing a pass either way, just an observation. They really had their hands tied a few years ago.


They had to react immediately? Boeing had almost 30 years to come up with a modern competitor to the A320. Not just that but the plane hadn't been updated with new engines since it's introduction in 1988. With a new engine generation available, what were Boeing management exactly thinking? That Airbus would continue to sell a 30 year old plane for another 20 years?

It isn't like Airbus blindsided Boeing. If they did not anticipate a re-engined A320 (something Boeing had done to the 737 already twice) around the 2015-2020 tmeframe, this takes incompetence to a whole next level.

Revelation has been making this point repeatedly, they lacked the time for a clean sheat, and the investment wasn't worth it. The investment wasn't worth it indeed since all the grandfathering and regulatory waivers meant they could milk the 737 like they'd could never milk a clean sheet. This is actually where lax regulations amount to hidden state subsidies as Boeing was able to sell a much cheaper to fabricate plane.

Oh I'm agreeing with you, but the issue was that (as you kinda said) a ground-up was never required to remain competitive, and thus a new plane was shelved. Even when the NEO was announced and Boeing engineers knew roughly what performance figures they'd have to achieve with the MAX, a new plane was never required to achieve those numbers. At that point it was too late anyways, I meant they NEEDED something their sales teams could market against the NEO immediately. Thus such a plane got pushed down the line yet again, and again, and again.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:57 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
BitFlip requirement as not been added. It will have been there for NG as well. The catastrophic failure modes added with MCAS were not mitigated by analysis or test.

Software audit not completed was reported last week in relation to the congressional hearing activity. I'm sure I posted at the time.

Ray


You may be on to something, suggesting the bit flip testing was part of the original NG certification effort - and completed successfully.
And that for the Max this bit flip testing was grandfathered, and not repeated on initial Max certification?

Now that they (FAA / EASA) redo the bit flip test with initial MCAS 2.0 they find that this test could affect MCAS behaviour. It may not have affected STS on the NG. Or perhaps did affect STS on NG (more lilkey), the effects were manageable and not in Catastrophic category.

An important difference in between NG and Max is the removal of the control column cut out switches. Or in other words, in the Max the control column no longer has final say over automation, unlike the NG where *control column always overrides STS input*.

Now that may cause the bit flip scenario to potentially become unacceptable for the Max (category Catastrophic), while acceptable for NG.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:02 pm

NWAROOSTER wrote:
I think the moderators need to open a new post. There are about 4850 posts spread through 98 pages. The 737 MAX is NOT going anywhere for sometime. It should have never been built. :old:

In 12 days we will have:

Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q1 2020, Production suspended
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
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spinotter
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:03 pm

2175301 wrote:
spinotter wrote:
2175301 wrote:
[
Deleted for readability: See above for full text


Very good information, thank you. Can you explain the 5 bit flip failure and how it fits into the MAX saga? I see that you are championing Boeing in a sense - but do you not agree that Boeing has made some egregious errors in this whole nightmare, and it is human nature not to trust a second or third time after repeated disappointments and poor information conveyance, to say the least about MCAS et al.? After the fake 787 episode and now this, how can you possibly trust Boeing? They really played with human lives, and lost.


I have posted multiple time on this:

Boeing made a mistake - the mistake was made at the FMEA stage of the process. They mistakenly classified a failure of MCAS V1 at less than catastrophic; and with the lower safety classification everything else flowed from that (and were allowed by the regulations with that lower safety classification).

Boeing has admitted that they had incorrect assumptions that went into the FMEA.

Please note that this almost certainly not from any intentional or criminal act. FMEA's are not easy to do, often depend on assumptions, and require at least most members of a team to agree with the rating and reasoning. They are not an exact science. They are in fact the best tool ever invented (in my opinion) to drive improvements to safety. Please search for my previous long explanation on this process. I've actually been on the review team for multiple FMEA's (I have a working understanding of this process, and regulatory reviews).

I have previously posted that the 737Max was appropriately grounded for this issue. I also believe that it was functionally fixed with MCAS V2, complete with FAA flight testing, in June of this year; which is also when the FAA pulled a 5 bit flip test which "failed." The specifically selected 5 very specific "worst case combination" computer switches to change simultaneously from a cosmic ray event, and the pilots could not adequately respond to all of that going wrong at once. If you go back a few pages you will find my explanation that was way beyond what the regulations required (I have been told by industry people familiar with the computer in question that the statistically plausible number to meet regulations would have been either 2 or 3 simultaneous bit flips from as single cosmic ray event. I believe the FAA did this based on their perceived need to "get tough" with Boeing, and require Boeing to go beyond just "good enough." Given the political environment there was no practical way for Boeing to even question this - and they had no real choice but to agree to this at the time.

In my opinion had they progressed with just certifying the MCAS fix in June (which is all the regulations required "good enough", that the software review, training, documentation, etc, would likely have been completed by the end of August.

However, as stated above Boeing wanted to show that they were good guys and would be better than good enough so they went along with the bit flip computer changes. Which then opened up every function of the flight computer software to potential challenges by the FAA (and now the other country regulatory bodies) as the "software package" is at least a complete order of magnitude more complex than just MCAS (which is rather short and simple). Also, pilots must now be trained on how the new computer system functions in addition to MCAS functions.


To conclude: In my opinion Boeing goofed up the FMEA (no criminal intent - just an honest mistake). The 737Max was appropriately grounded for the MCAS issue. But, the MCAS issue was functionally fixed in June, and should have been certified by the end of August even with an enhanced oversight process.

Have a great day,


Thank you again. I am learning a lot from you. But isn't the whole MAX/MCAS airframe development story a case of putting lipstick on a pig, in a way? Because of the need for new heavier bigger engines, the MAX is more inherently unstable and thus needs a monitoring system which takes control in certain cases. It seems totally bogus to me, but perhaps it's not. But after what has happened, in retrospect wouldn't it have been better to do a clean sheet design and wipe Airbus' you-know-what later on? What I especially can't understand is why Boeing didn't make an all-out communication to every MAX operator about MCAS after Lion Air. To me that is criminal guilt.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:04 pm

PW100 wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
BitFlip requirement as not been added. It will have been there for NG as well. The catastrophic failure modes added with MCAS were not mitigated by analysis or test.

Software audit not completed was reported last week in relation to the congressional hearing activity. I'm sure I posted at the time.

Ray


You may be on to something, suggesting the bit flip testing was part of the original NG certification effort - and completed successfully.
And that for the Max this bit flip testing was grandfathered, and not repeated on initial Max certification?

Now that they (FAA / EASA) redo the bit flip test with initial MCAS 2.0 they find that this test could affect MCAS behaviour. It may not have affected STS on the NG. Or perhaps did affect STS on NG (more lilkey), the effects were manageable and not in Catastrophic category.

An important difference in between NG and Max is the removal of the control column cut out switches. Or in other words, in the Max the control column no longer has final say over automation, unlike the NG where *control column always overrides STS input*.

Now that may cause the bit flip scenario to potentially become unacceptable for the Max (category Catastrophic), while acceptable for NG.

As an alternative, if the FHA for NG and original MAX did not identify any catastrophic failure modes, then bitflip could be achieved by statement only - no testing required.

Ray
 
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spinotter
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:05 pm

NWAROOSTER wrote:
I think the moderators need to open a new post. There are about 4850 posts spread through 98 pages. The 737 MAX is NOT going anywhere for sometime. It should have never been built. :old:


Hey, fellow NW person. I agree totally. There have been a few daredevils to predict that MAX program will be dropped even now. A clean solution, but not probable, is it?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:12 pm

spinotter wrote:
2175301 wrote:
spinotter wrote:

Very good information, thank you. Can you explain the 5 bit flip failure and how it fits into the MAX saga? I see that you are championing Boeing in a sense - but do you not agree that Boeing has made some egregious errors in this whole nightmare, and it is human nature not to trust a second or third time after repeated disappointments and poor information conveyance, to say the least about MCAS et al.? After the fake 787 episode and now this, how can you possibly trust Boeing? They really played with human lives, and lost.


I have posted multiple time on this:

Boeing made a mistake - the mistake was made at the FMEA stage of the process. They mistakenly classified a failure of MCAS V1 at less than catastrophic; and with the lower safety classification everything else flowed from that (and were allowed by the regulations with that lower safety classification).

Boeing has admitted that they had incorrect assumptions that went into the FMEA.

Please note that this almost certainly not from any intentional or criminal act. FMEA's are not easy to do, often depend on assumptions, and require at least most members of a team to agree with the rating and reasoning. They are not an exact science. They are in fact the best tool ever invented (in my opinion) to drive improvements to safety. Please search for my previous long explanation on this process. I've actually been on the review team for multiple FMEA's (I have a working understanding of this process, and regulatory reviews).

I have previously posted that the 737Max was appropriately grounded for this issue. I also believe that it was functionally fixed with MCAS V2, complete with FAA flight testing, in June of this year; which is also when the FAA pulled a 5 bit flip test which "failed." The specifically selected 5 very specific "worst case combination" computer switches to change simultaneously from a cosmic ray event, and the pilots could not adequately respond to all of that going wrong at once. If you go back a few pages you will find my explanation that was way beyond what the regulations required (I have been told by industry people familiar with the computer in question that the statistically plausible number to meet regulations would have been either 2 or 3 simultaneous bit flips from as single cosmic ray event. I believe the FAA did this based on their perceived need to "get tough" with Boeing, and require Boeing to go beyond just "good enough." Given the political environment there was no practical way for Boeing to even question this - and they had no real choice but to agree to this at the time.

In my opinion had they progressed with just certifying the MCAS fix in June (which is all the regulations required "good enough", that the software review, training, documentation, etc, would likely have been completed by the end of August.

However, as stated above Boeing wanted to show that they were good guys and would be better than good enough so they went along with the bit flip computer changes. Which then opened up every function of the flight computer software to potential challenges by the FAA (and now the other country regulatory bodies) as the "software package" is at least a complete order of magnitude more complex than just MCAS (which is rather short and simple). Also, pilots must now be trained on how the new computer system functions in addition to MCAS functions.


To conclude: In my opinion Boeing goofed up the FMEA (no criminal intent - just an honest mistake). The 737Max was appropriately grounded for the MCAS issue. But, the MCAS issue was functionally fixed in June, and should have been certified by the end of August even with an enhanced oversight process.

Have a great day,


Thank you again. I am learning a lot from you. But isn't the whole MAX/MCAS airframe development story a case of putting lipstick on a pig, in a way? Because of the need for new heavier bigger engines, the MAX is more inherently unstable and thus needs a monitoring system which takes control in certain cases. It seems totally bogus to me, but perhaps it's not. But after what has happened, in retrospect wouldn't it have been better to do a clean sheet design and wipe Airbus' you-know-what later on? What I especially can't understand is why Boeing didn't make an all-out communication to every MAX operator about MCAS after Lion Air. To me that is criminal guilt.


They did communicate multiple times in Multiple forms to their Airline partners about MCAS right after Lionair and it was in the Maintenance Manuals before Lionair.
Last edited by morrisond on Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:16 pm

My concern is, will any key suppliers go under because of the production halt? If one does, then certifying a new supplier will add to the delay. And that could cause another supplier failure and delay, an so on. ISTM there’s a risk of this snowballing. That could kill the MAX even if a good technical solution is found to the aerodynamic/MCAS issue.

Beech
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:32 pm

morrisond wrote:
it was in the Maintenance Manuals before Lionair.


I would imagine very few, if any, pilots read the maintenance manuals, so don't try to imply knowledge about MCAS was out there before the Lion crash.
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MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:37 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
Same old fanboy stuff from you as well. Mr Marko's presentation clearly points to a fundamental problem existing with12.1 software so no, MCAS was not finished either before or after the BitFlip testing.

No matter how hard you try, you cannot make published facts go away by partial quoting, only influence the gullible.


Your resorting to using the "fanboy" term proves my point. There is no debating with the same old, same old. Take Mr. Marko. We've all read his opinion. It's just that--an opinion. My opinion of that opinion is that he exemplifies what's wrong with the regulatory agencies. They can't see the forest for the trees. His opinion works both ways.

In one way you're right. I am a "fanboy". . . of aviation. While many fight over which "team" wins a fight, they let the fox trot into the aviation hen house. No good comes out of this for the industry.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:50 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
Software audit not completed was reported last week in relation to the congressional hearing activity. I'm sure I posted at the time.

Ray

Not sure if the below is the same article you are referring, but this does mention the software audit.
Now the EASA rep says there is still work to be done and Boeing's commitment to get it done within days.
What I found interesting at the time and most likely forgot was the comment that they saw no need to revise the software package based on the audit.
Now we know that the audit is not complete, unfortunately, we do not know if Boeing has filled the gaps and the FAA is reviewing or whether they are still waiting for the gap to be filled.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/06/regulat ... ation.html
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:03 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
Same old fanboy stuff from you as well. Mr Marko's presentation clearly points to a fundamental problem existing with12.1 software so no, MCAS was not finished either before or after the BitFlip testing.

No matter how hard you try, you cannot make published facts go away by partial quoting, only influence the gullible.


Your resorting to using the "fanboy" term proves my point. There is no debating with the same old, same old. Take Mr. Marko. We've all read his opinion. It's just that--an opinion. My opinion of that opinion is that he exemplifies what's wrong with the regulatory agencies. They can't see the forest for the trees. His opinion works both ways.

In one way you're right. I am a "fanboy". . . of aviation. While many fight over which "team" wins a fight, they let the fox trot into the aviation hen house. No good comes out of this for the industry.

Read again. Senior within TC records multiple known non-compliances. Not opinion, clear statement of status.

Wishy-washy poultry stories have no relevance.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:41 pm

PW100 wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
BitFlip requirement as not been added. It will have been there for NG as well. The catastrophic failure modes added with MCAS were not mitigated by analysis or test.

Software audit not completed was reported last week in relation to the congressional hearing activity. I'm sure I posted at the time.

Ray


You may be on to something, suggesting the bit flip testing was part of the original NG certification effort - and completed successfully.
And that for the Max this bit flip testing was grandfathered, and not repeated on initial Max certification?

Now that they (FAA / EASA) redo the bit flip test with initial MCAS 2.0 they find that this test could affect MCAS behaviour. It may not have affected STS on the NG. Or perhaps did affect STS on NG (more lilkey), the effects were manageable and not in Catastrophic category.

An important difference in between NG and Max is the removal of the control column cut out switches. Or in other words, in the Max the control column no longer has final say over automation, unlike the NG where *control column always overrides STS input*.

Now that may cause the bit flip scenario to potentially become unacceptable for the Max (category Catastrophic), while acceptable for NG.

I don't think the switches were removed. I'm pretty sure they were on the block diagram posted a few months ago. I think they were just disabled with respect to MCAS as they would prevent MCAS from functioning in pretty much all intended cases.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:45 pm

scbriml wrote:
morrisond wrote:
it was in the Maintenance Manuals before Lionair.


I would imagine very few, if any, pilots read the maintenance manuals, so don't try to imply knowledge about MCAS was out there before the Lion crash.


I didn't imply anything - I just stated fact.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:47 pm

par13del wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
Software audit not completed was reported last week in relation to the congressional hearing activity. I'm sure I posted at the time.

Ray

Not sure if the below is the same article you are referring, but this does mention the software audit.
Now the EASA rep says there is still work to be done and Boeing's commitment to get it done within days.
What I found interesting at the time and most likely forgot was the comment that they saw no need to revise the software package based on the audit.
Now we know that the audit is not complete, unfortunately, we do not know if Boeing has filled the gaps and the FAA is reviewing or whether they are still waiting for the gap to be filled.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/06/regulat ... ation.html

December 12th....

'.....yet-to-commence software audit...'
https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... ax-return/

Ray
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:32 pm

XRAYretired wrote:


Ok, my bad, when I saw your initial post I thought you were implying that the audit was failed because Boeing had not provided the necessary information. The article is saying that they received the information 1 week later than expected - no indication if that was because of the adjusted format - and all their timelines are pushed because of the delay. It explains why based on their insider knowledge they knew Boeing's timeline was off, would have been better to report them to the SEC versus letting folks know that they were the regulator, may also explain the shutdown. Funny thing is based on this article, the FAA has a pretty good idea when RTS would be granted if no issues are found with the documentation, the pilot testing points to improved or simplified documentation, I might speculate that pilots found multiple ways to "get out of trouble".

I hope everyone reads the article, it advises that despite lack of proper manuals, QRH, memory items etc. all pilots were able to get themselves out of trouble, MCAS 2.0 and the bit flip corrections seems to have worked even with all the confusion in the cockpit. No mention of any additional failures, just not making the 4th Qtr Boeing timeline for FAA administration purposes. The EASA test flights may not occur until Feb or March 2020 after the FAA says they are satisfied, EASA then get's to review and either bless or kick the FAA back to the curb.

Boeing has over 9 months production sitting around, now it is understandable why they will put priority on the stored frames, their staff can get those delivered while they have a slow restart of the line in May or June, if sooner, the rate will probably be even lower than 40.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:43 pm

LDRA wrote:
Leap 1A and 1B not built on the same line?

Nope, LEAP 1B built at GE facilities in US, LEAP 1A and 1C built at SAFRAN facilities in France.

No idea how hard it would be to change that arrangement.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:05 am

Revelation wrote:
LDRA wrote:
Leap 1A and 1B not built on the same line?

Nope, LEAP 1B built at GE facilities in US, LEAP 1A and 1C built at SAFRAN facilities in France.

Source ?
Because historically CFM production required many sites.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:12 am

The Renton worker I heard from yesterday is now saying they've received more communication from Boeing, but he's not allowed to say anything other than this:

"They're going to move workers around the Puget Sound area to support the other branches of Boeing. And they've assigned a bunch of people for streamlining the process."

Which we already know.

So now we've heard from workers and supply / vendors. The shutdown that will happen is very much real.
 
speedking
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:52 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
I've not seen or read any document from Boeing to suppliers / vendors or to their work force regarding this. I heard from a Boeing employee in Renton about 24 hours ago, no information from management on a shutdown.

It's my belief that this announced shutdown in January is a warning to FAA, Congress, the White House and Wall Street about what *could* happen.

I'll believe they're serious when I see the announcements to the work force or suppliers. Right now it's just statements to the press.


Most likely, Boeing needed to announce to the markets of a material change, then they are required to provide WARN notices at least 30 days in advance. Basically there can be no announcement of specific layoffs until the WARN notices are issued. I am sure those are going out as we speak. From there notices to the unions need to go out per their contract. Similar, each suppliers contract needs to be pulled and reviewed, then they need to do WARN notices. Negotiations to come, it will not be fun.

https://www.doleta.gov/programs/factsht ... 6.2019.pdf

Every worker involved with the 737 has just locked up their wallet, even if they are suddenly going into training on how to expedite getting planes delivered & flying ASAP once there is RTS, but I doubt minimal or no overtime. So the Puget Sound area will see a noticeable contraction in retail, real estate, car purchases, restaurants, etc. Local governments are puckering as sales tax revenue is taking a hit. Aerospace jobs in an area probably have a 2.5 to 3 economic multiplier as the product exports, and money imports so the most stimulative. Well, for each 10K Aerospace jobs on layoff there will be 25K others. Spirit and other 1st tier suppliers will cause impacts in their location in a similar manner.


Incredible. If this is going to happen just in Seattle, large parts of India will be devastated!
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:25 am

speedking wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
I've not seen or read any document from Boeing to suppliers / vendors or to their work force regarding this. I heard from a Boeing employee in Renton about 24 hours ago, no information from management on a shutdown.

It's my belief that this announced shutdown in January is a warning to FAA, Congress, the White House and Wall Street about what *could* happen.

I'll believe they're serious when I see the announcements to the work force or suppliers. Right now it's just statements to the press.


Most likely, Boeing needed to announce to the markets of a material change, then they are required to provide WARN notices at least 30 days in advance. Basically there can be no announcement of specific layoffs until the WARN notices are issued. I am sure those are going out as we speak. From there notices to the unions need to go out per their contract. Similar, each suppliers contract needs to be pulled and reviewed, then they need to do WARN notices. Negotiations to come, it will not be fun.

https://www.doleta.gov/programs/factsht ... 6.2019.pdf

Every worker involved with the 737 has just locked up their wallet, even if they are suddenly going into training on how to expedite getting planes delivered & flying ASAP once there is RTS, but I doubt minimal or no overtime. So the Puget Sound area will see a noticeable contraction in retail, real estate, car purchases, restaurants, etc. Local governments are puckering as sales tax revenue is taking a hit. Aerospace jobs in an area probably have a 2.5 to 3 economic multiplier as the product exports, and money imports so the most stimulative. Well, for each 10K Aerospace jobs on layoff there will be 25K others. Spirit and other 1st tier suppliers will cause impacts in their location in a similar manner.


Incredible. If this is going to happen just in Seattle, large parts of India will be devastated!


It has been much worse for Boeing, like 1971

https://www.historylink.org/File/1287
 
Virtual737
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:00 am

Revelation wrote:
I thought I read the wheel was reduced for the NG, thus the concern about having to retrofit all the NGs if a change is required.


I've not personally measured them (nor been anywhere near a MAX as of yet) but it's one of those facts (if it is correct) stuck in my head. It might well have come from A.Net, not sure.

http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm under the Manual Trim Wheel Loads section states: "As a point of interest, the stab trim wheel on the MAX is 1 inch less in diameter than in all previous generations of 737. This would slightly reduce the force that the crew could turn the wheel as the handles are located near the circumference."
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:09 am

NWAROOSTER wrote:
I think the moderators need to open a new post. There are about 4850 posts spread through 98 pages. The 737 MAX is NOT going anywhere for sometime. It should have never been built. :old:

No need for that, we’re only two weeks away from the start of the Q1 2020 thread (sounds so futuristic, shouldn’t there be flying cars everywhere by now?). We’re a little more than three months away from the Q2 2020 thread, a little more than six months away from the Q3 2020 thread...
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:22 am

Just a reminder if you are posting anything from an outside source whether that is quoting from an article or pasting an image a link must be provided otherwise the posts will be removed for violating copyright and advertising rules as per the forum rules
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:09 am

checklist350 wrote:
estorilm wrote:
uta999 wrote:
If in March, Boeing decided to put 787 style FBW systems into a new MAX frame they would be half-way through to certification by now.

In addition to being completely impossible and taking years to re-engineer nearly every system on the aircraft (and build / program all of the required flight envelopes and behaviors in sims / computer models) it would also require new training for every crew and maintenance employee around the world who operate the type.

Oh yeah, and you've got approximately 800 MAX's built which would need to be torn-apart and rebuilt at a staggering cost. Literally impossible.

Now if you said "they should have put a 787-style FBW system into a new 737 frame instead of building the MAX in the first place years ago" that would probably be more accurate.

The penny pinchers saw a very large threat in market share of the upcoming NEO and honestly, they had to react immediately. If there was a clean-sheet, they would have mostly given up a segment they've traditionally dominated for.. well.. the history of jet travel, for at least 10 years till the new design reached EIS.

Not giving Boeing a pass either way, just an observation. They really had their hands tied a few years ago.


They had to react immediately? Boeing had almost 30 years to come up with a modern competitor to the A320. Not just that but the plane hadn't been updated with new engines since it's introduction in 1988. With a new engine generation available, what were Boeing management exactly thinking? That Airbus would continue to sell a 30 year old plane for another 20 years?

It isn't like Airbus blindsided Boeing. If they did not anticipate a re-engined A320 (something Boeing had done to the 737 already twice) around the 2015-2020 tmeframe, this takes incompetence to a whole next level.

Revelation has been making this point repeatedly, they lacked the time for a clean sheat, and the investment wasn't worth it. The investment wasn't worth it indeed since all the grandfathering and regulatory waivers meant they could milk the 737 like they'd could never milk a clean sheet. This is actually where lax regulations amount to hidden state subsidies as Boeing was able to sell a much cheaper to fabricate plane.

This is not entirely true as the A320 did see new engines as early as 1993 when the A321 was created, but it took many years for them to start being delivered on the A320. The newer CFM56-5B is a significantly better engine than the older -5A and comparable to the 737NG’s engines so the engines weren’t exactly 30 years old.

I do have to say though that this does have me wondering as to why Boeing seemed to get caught with their pants down with all this. Did they really not see it as a possibility that Airbus would take the new engines that were being developed and slap them on their A320? Or more like did they not have money to waste after the failure of the 747-8 and the costs of the 787 to do another “moonshot” and ended up with a 737 even though the claim is the airlines wanted it. In hindsight considering this it almost looks as though either they didn’t want to replace the 737 or the 737 MAX always was at least considered a very serious option and one that they would be comfortable with.

What I really wonder is what would’ve happened if they had gone with the smaller fan concept design of the LEAP-1B that I believe was being considered at one point. Would we be having this discussion right now? Would the MAX have even been efficient enough to compete?
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pune
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:46 am

flyingturtle wrote:
CNN reports this:

"A Federal Aviation Administration analysis document dated December 2018, weeks after the first crash, predicted there would be more than 15 additional fatal crashes of the MAX over its lifetime. The document was made public Wednesday at a House Transportation Committee hearing."

The FAA chief didn't know of this document.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/11/poli ... index.html


can somebody share this document, thank you :)
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:53 am

lightsaber wrote:
Interested wrote:
Re Boeing stopping production being a "political" move


Should it not worry Boeing management that FAA still don't think the plane is safe enough to fly

Surely Boeing want everybody on board with them?

So that no fingers can be pointed by anyone if theres another disaster?

If Boeing mean it when they say that when the plane returns it will be one of the safest planes ever to fly it should be easy to get FAA and EASA an all the pilots unions and everyone else on board with them

They shouldn't need to do anything political to influence a favourable answer surely?

They should want the whole industry agreeing the plane is one of the safest to ever fly

Political or financial pressure shouldn't come into any decisions now

Surely we are past all that?

Regulator's want the best, not good enough. If the solution meets requirements, then it can be certified.

The more regulators involved, the more each individual wants to find a problem.

At this point Boeing needs to conserve cash. There spend was $2.5 billion/month on the MAX to $2 billion, to now just over a billion. That cut implies about 150,000 fewer jobs.

So now regulators who want more time to make sure it is right will instead do as they are supposed, a yes/no answer with "yes, but this increases risk" acceptable as if the FMEA goes too high risk, no certification.

On my last project, we had 40 requirements passed with requests for more testing. It turned out the regulator wanted more information to better tell a competitor why they failed requirements. Interesting, we passed and declined to execute $10 million more in testing to help the regulator and our competitor. We met FMEA and the RVTM, so good enough.

Regulators always want more data to better regulate, but usually not the aircraft being tested. China wants more data for the C919 (in particular after the ARJ-21 that never would have been certified by the FAA).

...

Lightsaber


Your comments on regulator behaviour are so true. If they refuse someone they have to be able to explain why. If they can ask for more data they will, especially when you apply for a variation on means of compliance. The interactions between manufacturer and regulator is an interesting and delicate dance. Miss-steps by one or the other can lead to a programme which is totally non-viable and well beyond either the letter or intent of the regulation.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:07 am

milhaus wrote:
I think that MCAS should have tripple input redundancy, it has to work during all flights.

(emphasis added)
I think this is the problem. While the MCAS update would probably have prevented the crashes had it been in place, it does nothing about, and in fact increases the probability of, false negatives. If MCAS is critical for safety, then an AoA-disagree turns from an annoyance to an emergency, and I'm not sure even triple AoA vanes would be good enough. In contrast, the AoA protection on an Airbus, with three or four AoA vanes, is not critical to safe flight.

I believe that an aerodynamic fix is required, in the process removing MCAS altogether, and that this is the reason for the production stop.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:25 am

pune wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
CNN reports this:

"A Federal Aviation Administration analysis document dated December 2018, weeks after the first crash, predicted there would be more than 15 additional fatal crashes of the MAX over its lifetime. The document was made public Wednesday at a House Transportation Committee hearing."

The FAA chief didn't know of this document.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/11/poli ... index.html


can somebody share this document, thank you :)

https://www.flightglobal.com/download?ac=65911

This is it (without the DeFazio annotation). The crash rate is post the AD issued in November 2018.

Ray
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:29 am

I think Boeing shut down the line because they know that this will take a long time.
Maybe they have to redesign the plane to make it possible to certified it without MCAS.
I doubt it’s back in service first half of 2020.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:40 am

767333ER wrote:
checklist350 wrote:
estorilm wrote:
In addition to being completely impossible and taking years to re-engineer nearly every system on the aircraft (and build / program all of the required flight envelopes and behaviors in sims / computer models) it would also require new training for every crew and maintenance employee around the world who operate the type.

Oh yeah, and you've got approximately 800 MAX's built which would need to be torn-apart and rebuilt at a staggering cost. Literally impossible.

Now if you said "they should have put a 787-style FBW system into a new 737 frame instead of building the MAX in the first place years ago" that would probably be more accurate.

The penny pinchers saw a very large threat in market share of the upcoming NEO and honestly, they had to react immediately. If there was a clean-sheet, they would have mostly given up a segment they've traditionally dominated for.. well.. the history of jet travel, for at least 10 years till the new design reached EIS.

Not giving Boeing a pass either way, just an observation. They really had their hands tied a few years ago.


They had to react immediately? Boeing had almost 30 years to come up with a modern competitor to the A320. Not just that but the plane hadn't been updated with new engines since it's introduction in 1988. With a new engine generation available, what were Boeing management exactly thinking? That Airbus would continue to sell a 30 year old plane for another 20 years?

It isn't like Airbus blindsided Boeing. If they did not anticipate a re-engined A320 (something Boeing had done to the 737 already twice) around the 2015-2020 tmeframe, this takes incompetence to a whole next level.

Revelation has been making this point repeatedly, they lacked the time for a clean sheat, and the investment wasn't worth it. The investment wasn't worth it indeed since all the grandfathering and regulatory waivers meant they could milk the 737 like they'd could never milk a clean sheet. This is actually where lax regulations amount to hidden state subsidies as Boeing was able to sell a much cheaper to fabricate plane.

This is not entirely true as the A320 did see new engines as early as 1993 when the A321 was created, but it took many years for them to start being delivered on the A320. The newer CFM56-5B is a significantly better engine than the older -5A and comparable to the 737NG’s engines so the engines weren’t exactly 30 years old.

I do have to say though that this does have me wondering as to why Boeing seemed to get caught with their pants down with all this. Did they really not see it as a possibility that Airbus would take the new engines that were being developed and slap them on their A320? Or more like did they not have money to waste after the failure of the 747-8 and the costs of the 787 to do another “moonshot” and ended up with a 737 even though the claim is the airlines wanted it. In hindsight considering this it almost looks as though either they didn’t want to replace the 737 or the 737 MAX always was at least considered a very serious option and one that they would be comfortable with.

What I really wonder is what would’ve happened if they had gone with the smaller fan concept design of the LEAP-1B that I believe was being considered at one point. Would we be having this discussion right now? Would the MAX have even been efficient enough to compete?


The advent of NEO class engines and actual availability would never have been much earlier than 2015. So any Boeing programme in the 00s would have foundered once the new engines came online. Further, looking at fleet ages 2015+ is the sweetspot for the replacement cycle. This is because that is when the prior class of airframes reaches 20 years old.

For Boeing the problem has never been cash, they have always been able to get their hands on more cash, obviously at a cost. Even in the late 00s and early 10s the cost of borrowing and even equity were quite low. The problem in the late 00s and early 10s was people. The issues with 787 ate up almost all of Boeing's engineering talent, it pulled from every programme around and all future activities. Boeing simply did not have the capacity to respond before about 2012 and even then a full up new programme would have taken at least 2 years longer than the MAX was projected. This is even without a repeat of the managerial issues that plagued 787 development.

Boeing very consciously chose the engine size that they did as they felt it would maximise the return for Boeing. Whether that decision, in isolation, was good or bad is impossible to know.

The issue with the aerodynamics of all swept-wing, underwing engined commercial transports, is well 'understood'. In isolation the lift curve of the nacelle and that of the wing are pretty well in hand. We know that approach to stall and stall is an issue. The effective aerodynamic centre of the wing will shift forward at higher AoAs. Consequently static margin will be reduced and elevator effectiveness will increase. Further, we also know that stalls are not always distinct. The issue is that while we can reasonably predict these effects in 'isolation' it is the interaction between the nacelle and the wing that is much harder to predict. As a result we honest do no know if the slightly smaller fan versions would have required the additional level of augmentation needed for the current MAX. As of yet we aren't sure what additional level of augmentation beyond the NGs STS is required, just that Boeing engineers felt that STS was insufficient for get the aircraft certified and the original MCAS rates were also insufficient.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:19 am

speedygonzales wrote:
milhaus wrote:
I think that MCAS should have tripple input redundancy, it has to work during all flights.

(emphasis added)
I think this is the problem. While the MCAS update would probably have prevented the crashes had it been in place, it does nothing about, and in fact increases the probability of, false negatives. If MCAS is critical for safety, then an AoA-disagree turns from an annoyance to an emergency, and I'm not sure even triple AoA vanes would be good enough. In contrast, the AoA protection on an Airbus, with three or four AoA vanes, is not critical to safe flight.

I believe that an aerodynamic fix is required, in the process removing MCAS altogether, and that this is the reason for the production stop.


Would a new bigger horizontal stabiliser help? Especially if it could automatically control the pitch-up momentum during turns. It sounds easier to retro-fit to the 800 existing frames too.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:06 am

Just watched an “aviation expert” explaining why the 737MAX may never fly again.
Once you halt the supply chain it is nearly impossible to re-start it with the same economies of scale.

I saw that Spirit have started producing 767/KC-46 forward fuselages.. maybe they can find other work.. also they are buying Bombardier in Belfast that supply A220 wings.. but will still be a major disruption for their workforce.

Link to the video is here https://p.dw.com/p/3UzRB
Not sure if I agree with him, but at the moment there are no guarantees that the 737MAX will return to service.
 
milhaus
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:20 am

I thing that instalation of aditional AOA is much more easier than redesigning of HST. And bigger HST will need more power to operate, main elec system can be probably boosted but manual system no.
 
macc
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:26 am

flyingphil wrote:
Just watched an “aviation expert” explaining why the 737MAX may never fly again.
Once you halt the supply chain it is nearly impossible to re-start it with the same economies of scale.

I saw that Spirit have started producing 767/KC-46 forward fuselages.. maybe they can find other work.. also they are buying Bombardier in Belfast that supply A220 wings.. but will still be a major disruption for their workforce.

Link to the video is here https://p.dw.com/p/3UzRB
Not sure if I agree with him, but at the moment there are no guarantees that the 737MAX will return to service.


I wouldn't agree with him either yet. I believe halting the production is indeed a decision based on two arguments: it might push the regulators to fast forward the recertification process. I believe everyone is aware that this would ultimately be the death for the 737. It is too big to fail one would think. If there is a reaction from the regulators within a month, then it has worked and the supply chain can be kept, as I believe that negotiations would take several weeks anyway. However, if that doesn't move the FAA to a decision, then we indeed may see the end of it.
I exchanged political frustration with sexual boredom. better spoil a girl than the world
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:30 am

scbriml wrote:


I think it's a tribute to the industry how few actually think anything about it before stepping on a plane. Excepting a small minority of 'nervous' pax.


Not me, I always think of mortality and do think it's good to think of that from time to time. Makes us human, doesn't it.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:35 am

If Boeing really did this to press the FAA to greenlight things faster wouldn't this strain the relations to the FAA for a long time to come? I mean would this be wise to do?
To me it is a big shock to see how long it took to come to no solution except to finally hold (close?) the line.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:38 am

The FAA has already unintentionally released their time line in their "dressing down of Boeing's PR on RTS" two reviews of all the documents have to be completed and they are sequential, if additional test flights are required, it will be Feb-2020 at the earliest, next the EASA stamp of approval of the FAA is required including their test flights, so March to April 2020, all going on the assumption that no significant issues arise in the review.

Boeing has 9 months of production sitting down, in earlier post timelines for delivery was into 2021, with a production stop and a slow line restart Boeing has more workers who they can dedicate to getting the a/c ready, the Moses Lake project may not have panned out and in any event, the RTS was further delayed so those hires were a waste of money. Boeing will need fast cash to secure their vendors health, best way to get that is to deliver all those frames that are parked while spending lower sums on the full line production.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:02 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
pune wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
CNN reports this:

"A Federal Aviation Administration analysis document dated December 2018, weeks after the first crash, predicted there would be more than 15 additional fatal crashes of the MAX over its lifetime. The document was made public Wednesday at a House Transportation Committee hearing."

The FAA chief didn't know of this document.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/11/poli ... index.html


can somebody share this document, thank you :)

https://www.flightglobal.com/download?ac=65911

This is it (without the DeFazio annotation). The crash rate is post the AD issued in November 2018.

Ray
Wow! :o
Analysis Date 12/3/2018
I remember the "just flip the switch" media coverage and the state of the overall discussion on the forum at that time.
I wonder how that document would have changed something if published back then...
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:26 pm

I am speculating if Boeing is ready with solutions for the 737, if the regulators should pull some of the exemptions. I would have done that in there case, the famous plan B.

EICAS is integrated on the P-8, so most of the work, but certification is done. That would also include more advanced flight computers.
Has Boeing worked on the trim wheel, being able to present a solution, if one regulator insist on change?
Has Boeing worked on a solution(s) for the protection of the control wire ropes for the control surfaces?


Or is Boeing trying to brazen it out?
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:27 pm

Wow! :o
Analysis Date 12/3/2018
I remember the "just flip the switch" media coverage and the state of the overall discussion on the forum at that time.
I wonder how that document would have changed something if published back then...


I remember the "it's not an anti stall system" narrative best.

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