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aerolimani
Posts: 1321
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:06 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
airnorth wrote:
Alfons wrote:

your own examples have me following output: "Sorry, but we could not find data for specified flight".


Not sure why these links do not work:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... v#221ffb73
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... y#221fde12
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... y#224cd53f
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... x#22a7893d

Those links should all work, if not, just search the callsign flight history of C-FTJV, C-GEHY, C-FSCY, and a Westjet plane for good measure C-FRAX in your favorite flight tracker website, you will see all of those flights cruised at speeds of 380 -530 kt, and fl 380 -400. No restrictions on speed, and obviously not cruising with flaps deployed, at those speeds or altitudes. There may have been some flights in other jurisdictions where the MAX could only fly at certain speeds and altitudes, but that is clearly not the case in USA or Canada. I'm sure there were definite parameters around these flights, plus all of the other ferry flights, but they are not restricted to 180kt, and flaps deployed as another poster has suggested.


You can fly any MAX with special insurance cert, special approval from the governing body in which airspace you fly and most importantly no PAX on board. That is a problem if you want to use this aircraft as a commercial aircraft. But right now if the airforce needs targets they are good to go. Unfortunately this kind of aircraft go around 1mio and that is not good for boeing

Apparently, you guys missed the outrage when Air Canada was conducting training flights in a MAX: https://globalnews.ca/news/5918545/boei ... -training/
 
AirwayBill
Posts: 181
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:29 pm

flyingphil wrote:
“More ‘troubling’ internal Boeing documents on 737 MAX set for release”
Reported by Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times. He seems to have good sourcrs.

So, maybe linked to DM’s sudden departure?


Troubling documents to be released by... Boeing themselves. Perfectly orchestrated along with the firing of Muilenburg. I smell a nice decoy here, possibly to deflect as much blame as possible on one single person, that *coincidentally* just 'resigned', and his circle (test pilot, others) in order to look cleaner. With DM as the central character of the infernal MAX fiasco, it would be a tad easier for Boeing to avoid liabilities.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/more-troubling-internal-boeing-documents-on-737-max-set-for-release/
 
airnorth
Posts: 456
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:30 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:42 pm

aerolimani wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
airnorth wrote:

Not sure why these links do not work:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... v#221ffb73
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... y#221fde12
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... y#224cd53f
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... x#22a7893d

Those links should all work, if not, just search the callsign flight history of C-FTJV, C-GEHY, C-FSCY, and a Westjet plane for good measure C-FRAX in your favorite flight tracker website, you will see all of those flights cruised at speeds of 380 -530 kt, and fl 380 -400. No restrictions on speed, and obviously not cruising with flaps deployed, at those speeds or altitudes. There may have been some flights in other jurisdictions where the MAX could only fly at certain speeds and altitudes, but that is clearly not the case in USA or Canada. I'm sure there were definite parameters around these flights, plus all of the other ferry flights, but they are not restricted to 180kt, and flaps deployed as another poster has suggested.


You can fly any MAX with special insurance cert, special approval from the governing body in which airspace you fly and most importantly no PAX on board. That is a problem if you want to use this aircraft as a commercial aircraft. But right now if the airforce needs targets they are good to go. Unfortunately this kind of aircraft go around 1mio and that is not good for boeing

Apparently, you guys missed the outrage when Air Canada was conducting training flights in a MAX: https://globalnews.ca/news/5918545/boei ... -training/


I think the outrage from the media and others occurred about a week after most of those flights happened. I was posting the record of the flights as they were happening , but there was basically zero interest on a-net, which I found interesting.
 
Interested
Posts: 887
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:45 pm

AirwayBill wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
“More ‘troubling’ internal Boeing documents on 737 MAX set for release”
Reported by Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times. He seems to have good sourcrs.

So, maybe linked to DM’s sudden departure?


Troubling documents to be released by... Boeing themselves. Perfectly orchestrated along with the firing of Muilenburg. I smell a nice decoy here, possibly to deflect as much blame as possible on one single person, that *coincidentally* just 'resigned', and his circle (test pilot, others) in order to look cleaner. With DM as the central character of the infernal MAX fiasco, it would be a tad easier for Boeing to avoid liabilities.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/more-troubling-internal-boeing-documents-on-737-max-set-for-release/


The bad news stories continue
 
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PixelFlight
Posts: 1019
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:47 pm

AirwayBill wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
“More ‘troubling’ internal Boeing documents on 737 MAX set for release”
Reported by Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times. He seems to have good sourcrs.

So, maybe linked to DM’s sudden departure?


Troubling documents to be released by... Boeing themselves. Perfectly orchestrated along with the firing of Muilenburg. I smell a nice decoy here, possibly to deflect as much blame as possible on one single person, that *coincidentally* just 'resigned', and his circle (test pilot, others) in order to look cleaner. With DM as the central character of the infernal MAX fiasco, it would be a tad easier for Boeing to avoid liabilities.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/more-troubling-internal-boeing-documents-on-737-max-set-for-release/

"The documents include further messages from Mark Forkner, the Boeing pilot whose 2016 instant message exchange with a colleague caused outrage when it was released in October."

Seriously, I would largely prefer technical documents allowing to understand the real actual progress and remaining work for the return to service.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:12 am

flyingphil wrote:
“More ‘troubling’ internal Boeing documents on 737 MAX set for release”
Reported by Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times. He seems to have good sourcrs.

So, maybe linked to DM’s sudden departure?


Considering it apparently has something to with Forkner again, and considering the source, I'm expecting the piece to fail to live up to the title and instead be more along the lines of a click-bait piece taking things wildly out of context--just like last time.
 
Max Q
Posts: 8421
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Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:10 am

Is this so outrageous?


The estimated date to return to service keeps getting put back, and back, and not by weeks but months and months


Maybe tocertify this aircraft to a modern airworthiness standard is a step too far, even impossible


I realize it’s hard to imagine but it doesnt look like regulators are even close to agreeing on how this could be done, they could even just say no


And then what ?
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
ParkFSI
Posts: 98
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 8:01 pm

Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:14 am

What makes this plane impossible to fly ?
Thread killer
 
teachpdx
Posts: 145
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Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:24 am

If the FAA were a truly impartial government entity, this premise could be plausible. But since the FAA is generally in the pocket of the aircraft manufacturers and the airlines, I don’t see them doing that. They’ll continue to issue exceptions and grandfatherings and the like, and the MAX will be back in the skies eventually. And it’ll probably be just as safe as anything else. But with a program that large in an industry that large, the FAA is probably acutely aware that denying the MAX certification could very well be a catalyst for an economic recession and it would probably be the end of Boeing as we know it.
Up Next: THIS YEAR IS CANCELLED!!!
 
SDL
Posts: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:24 am

The longer this takes the more I think the MAX will never fly again, or fly again with a new certificate and aerodynamic changes.
Boeing’s problem seems to be that the plane needs to be safe without MCAS also.
 
Max Q
Posts: 8421
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:27 am

teachpdx wrote:
If the FAA were a truly impartial government entity, this premise could be plausible. But since the FAA is generally in the pocket of the aircraft manufacturers and the airlines, I don’t see them doing that. They’ll continue to issue exceptions and grandfatherings and the like, and the MAX will be back in the skies eventually. And it’ll probably be just as safe as anything else. But with a program that large in an industry that large, the FAA is probably acutely aware that denying the MAX certification could very well be a catalyst for an economic recession and it would probably be the end of Boeing as we know it.



The FAA is a small part of the equation, convincing other regulators worldwide is the problem and the fed’s rubber stamp wont matter at all
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
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SheikhDjibouti
Posts: 2225
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:52 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
airnorth wrote:
Air Canada flew theirs to the desert within what I would call "normal" conditions.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... v#221ffb73
There are plenty of other examples

Do any of those examples include
a) a heavy fuel load
b) a heavy passenger load (or indeed any pax at all)
No? I thought not. And you knew it too.

airnorth wrote:
Did I miss a post? I was responding to the poster that said the planes had to fly at 180k and flaps deployed. I clearly showed this was not the case.
No you did not! :banghead:
You provided links to an app that requires a subscription if the data is more than 7-days old. Guess what?
Others found it impossible to access the data too.
Not only that but you failed to elaborate on the content of those links (as per forum rules, mutter, mutter) :roll:
Your subsequent posts corrected this oversight with specific comments like "you will see all of those flights cruised at speeds of 380 -530 kt, and fl 380 -400. No restrictions on speed, and obviously not cruising with flaps deployed". And to your credit you even added "I'm sure there were definite parameters around these flights,"
But at the time I (and others) replied, your only comment was about MAX's flying within "normal" conditions.
Call me strange, but I don't consider an empty unladen aircraft "normal".

airnorth wrote:
What sort of payload information do you have to dispute the data presented in my post?

I don't know - what payload data did you get from FR24?
I've never seen payload data on FR24 so my guess is you've got nothing whatsoever.
So that leaves us with what is the most likely scenario for any aircraft being sent for storage?
By all means make your case for why these MAX's would be carrying a "normal" payload on these flights
I'll wait.....

airnorth wrote:
Pleas follow the forum rules and when you read responses that you wish to reply to, compose your response to the comment made so it is in context.

Nice! And not a little ironic. :roll:

But the good news is that we are now both in agreement; these ferry flights do not represent "normal" MAX operations in the slightest, and certainly offer no risk of aft CG contributing to a situation where MCAS would be required in the first place.
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
airnorth
Posts: 456
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:30 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:55 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
airnorth wrote:
Air Canada flew theirs to the desert within what I would call "normal" conditions.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... v#221ffb73
There are plenty of other examples

Do any of those examples include
a) a heavy fuel load
b) a heavy passenger load (or indeed any pax at all)
No? I thought not. And you knew it too.

airnorth wrote:
Did I miss a post? I was responding to the poster that said the planes had to fly at 180k and flaps deployed. I clearly showed this was not the case.
No you did not! :banghead:
You provided links to an app that requires a subscription if the data is more than 7-days old. Guess what?
Others found it impossible to access the data too.
Not only that but you failed to elaborate on the content of those links (as per forum rules, mutter, mutter) :roll:
Your subsequent posts corrected this oversight with specific comments like "you will see all of those flights cruised at speeds of 380 -530 kt, and fl 380 -400. No restrictions on speed, and obviously not cruising with flaps deployed". And to your credit you even added "I'm sure there were definite parameters around these flights,"
But at the time I (and others) replied, your only comment was about MAX's flying within "normal" conditions.
Call me strange, but I don't consider an empty unladen aircraft "normal".

airnorth wrote:
What sort of payload information do you have to dispute the data presented in my post?

I don't know - what payload data did you get from FR24?
I've never seen payload data on FR24 so my guess is you've got nothing whatsoever.
So that leaves us with what is the most likely scenario for any aircraft being sent for storage?
By all means make your case for why these MAX's would be carrying a "normal" payload on these flights
I'll wait.....

airnorth wrote:
Pleas follow the forum rules and when you read responses that you wish to reply to, compose your response to the comment made so it is in context.

Nice! And not a little ironic. :roll:

But the good news is that we are now both in agreement; these ferry flights do not represent "normal" MAX operations in the slightest, and certainly offer no risk of aft CG contributing to a situation where MCAS would be required in the first place.


I never suggested any kind of fuel load or payload you did. You brought it up, I was only pointing to examples of flights that were flying a normal profile, who cares what the payload was, what difference would it make? The normal flight profile was to climb to cruising altitude, and fly at cruising speed. At what point in the payload range does a flight become normal anyway, is there a scale for that? I really do not understand why you even bring it up, when it has no bearing on the discussion.
Flightradar24 is not an app, its just a website, you can get an app though.
Sometimes you need a subscription for information, we see that a lot in links to posted news articles, I can never read any of them, but a lot of people can, if I wanted to, I would subscribe, maybe you should, FR24 is a cool website.
I will say its strange if you don't consider an empty unladen aircraft "normal". At what point in the payload range would an aircraft be "normal"?

Anyway, just to clarify the facts, the flight history is clear, all of these flights were completely normal flight profiles for a 737 MAX.
 
ACATROYAL
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 11:25 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:10 am

Well its now official! The Max 9 and 10 are useless and Boeing wants to introduce a completely new plane sometime in 2021 or thereabouts to compete with the vastly superior A321 according to LNA! Say what you want but in my opinion and in alot of other people as well that the Max is a failure...Yes A Failure and this ISN'T flamebait but the truth so don't delete this post Moderator!!!

The MAX is close to destroying Boeing and a major rethink is necessary for its very survival. Even after all this time they still can't get the Max fixed which means and proves what I have been saying all along that the Max is a variant (ENGINE) gone to far...period!

I hope that they clean house big time and put real plane people in charge at Boring. A Major buisness lesson was hopefully learned here and that is NEVER BE OR THINK CHEAP!!

Merry Christmas
 
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flyingturtle
Posts: 5850
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Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:38 am

ParkFSI wrote:
What makes this plane impossible to fly ?


An assistance system / a flight safety system / a murderous killbot system which was poorly conceived, poorly documented and poorly approved called "MCAS".

Please read the previous 36636523083118 postings, or consult the all-knowing waste dump called Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuveri ... ion_System
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
StTim
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:59 am

teachpdx wrote:
If the FAA were a truly impartial government entity, this premise could be plausible. But since the FAA is generally in the pocket of the aircraft manufacturers and the airlines, I don’t see them doing that. They’ll continue to issue exceptions and grandfatherings and the like, and the MAX will be back in the skies eventually. And it’ll probably be just as safe as anything else. But with a program that large in an industry that large, the FAA is probably acutely aware that denying the MAX certification could very well be a catalyst for an economic recession and it would probably be the end of Boeing as we know it.


It really worries me the number of posters on here who think that the FAA needs to recertify the MAX because of the damage it is doing to Boeing and the US economy.

Damn no never. There lies madness. They need to certify it when they are convinced it has been proven to meet certification requirements. Anything else puts the company/US above the travelling public.
 
planecane
Posts: 1572
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:19 am

StTim wrote:
teachpdx wrote:
If the FAA were a truly impartial government entity, this premise could be plausible. But since the FAA is generally in the pocket of the aircraft manufacturers and the airlines, I don’t see them doing that. They’ll continue to issue exceptions and grandfatherings and the like, and the MAX will be back in the skies eventually. And it’ll probably be just as safe as anything else. But with a program that large in an industry that large, the FAA is probably acutely aware that denying the MAX certification could very well be a catalyst for an economic recession and it would probably be the end of Boeing as we know it.


It really worries me the number of posters on here who think that the FAA needs to recertify the MAX because of the damage it is doing to Boeing and the US economy.

Damn no never. There lies madness. They need to certify it when they are convinced it has been proven to meet certification requirements. Anything else puts the company/US above the travelling public.


I don't think they should recertify it because of the damage it is doing to Boeing and the US economy. I think that IF they are going to recertify it, they should do it more quickly. If they aren't going to require major changes like a 3rd AoA sensor or aerodynamic modifications to the airframe, it shouldn't take several more months to lift the grounding. MCAS 2.0 has been done for almost 6 months. The FCC software to deal with the bit flip has been done over a month now.

Either these fixes work or they don't. The FAA, in my opinion, has an obligation to provide a test regimen that they want run to verify the fixes and unground the MAX if the tests are passed.

Adding things like modifying the manual trim wheel or rudder cable routing should not be part of the ungrounding. These items were fully known by the FAA and they certified it the first time (the manual wheel issue going back to the NG, actually even the 737-100). I'd have no problem with putting out an AD that requires modifications by some date to deal with these issues but they should absolutely not be part of the ungrounding. The trim wheel is only an issue if electric trim is turned off or fails when the aircraft is out of trim and can be mitigated with the "roller coaster" procedure.

The rudder cable issue should be highly improbable. First you have to have a very rare uncontained engine failure (which WN1380 was not technically) AND a piece of high enough energy debris must take the exact path to cut the cable.

At this point it seems clear that the FAA is making a statement with a "dog and pony show." Their actions of a seemingly excessive delay are not fair to Boeing's workers, the airlines or the US/world economy.
 
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PixelFlight
Posts: 1019
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:23 am

ACATROYAL wrote:
Well its now official! The Max 9 and 10 are useless and Boeing wants to introduce a completely new plane sometime in 2021 or thereabouts to compete with the vastly superior A321 according to LNA! Say what you want but in my opinion and in alot of other people as well that the Max is a failure...Yes A Failure and this ISN'T flamebait but the truth so don't delete this post Moderator!!!

The MAX is close to destroying Boeing and a major rethink is necessary for its very survival. Even after all this time they still can't get the Max fixed which means and proves what I have been saying all along that the Max is a variant (ENGINE) gone to far...period!

I hope that they clean house big time and put real plane people in charge at Boring. A Major buisness lesson was hopefully learned here and that is NEVER BE OR THINK CHEAP!!

Merry Christmas

I think you are talking about this:
https://leehamnews.com/2019/12/23/analy ... the-board/
About the 737-9/10 MAX, It's not clear to me at this moment if it's a Leeham's opinion or a Boeing official decision still to be announced, because I can't find any confirmation yet.
Fundamentally, if the 737-8 MAX can return to service, It's not clear what could prevent the 737-9 MAX and the 737-7 MAX to return to service too, especially since those are real frames already produced waiting to fly. The situation could be a bit different for the 737-10 MAX that was not in production before the halt if I am correct.
Last edited by PixelFlight on Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
lowbank
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:10 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:23 am

The recent announcements about the MAX are really concerning.
I have been convinced in the last couple of months that the MAX is unlikely to be certified again. That’s sad news indeed.
However it’s slow death is going to have massive impacts on families who work on the plane and in the supply chain.

There are going to many workers laid off due to the stoppage in production. My sympathies are with them too at this festive time of year.

Boeing’s biggest issue if it does get it recertified will be getting its supply chain back up to speed as trained workers will have found new jobs.
Every days a school day.
 
cynlb
Posts: 75
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:49 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:38 am

This reminds me of the Chevy Corvair and what it did to GM
 
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seahawk
Posts: 9633
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:41 am

PixelFlight wrote:
AirwayBill wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
“More ‘troubling’ internal Boeing documents on 737 MAX set for release”
Reported by Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times. He seems to have good sourcrs.

So, maybe linked to DM’s sudden departure?


Troubling documents to be released by... Boeing themselves. Perfectly orchestrated along with the firing of Muilenburg. I smell a nice decoy here, possibly to deflect as much blame as possible on one single person, that *coincidentally* just 'resigned', and his circle (test pilot, others) in order to look cleaner. With DM as the central character of the infernal MAX fiasco, it would be a tad easier for Boeing to avoid liabilities.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/more-troubling-internal-boeing-documents-on-737-max-set-for-release/

"The documents include further messages from Mark Forkner, the Boeing pilot whose 2016 instant message exchange with a colleague caused outrage when it was released in October."

Seriously, I would largely prefer technical documents allowing to understand the real actual progress and remaining work for the return to service.


I think the focus is no to avoid a criminal conviction, the RTS is second to this.
 
planecane
Posts: 1572
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:53 pm

seahawk wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
AirwayBill wrote:

Troubling documents to be released by... Boeing themselves. Perfectly orchestrated along with the firing of Muilenburg. I smell a nice decoy here, possibly to deflect as much blame as possible on one single person, that *coincidentally* just 'resigned', and his circle (test pilot, others) in order to look cleaner. With DM as the central character of the infernal MAX fiasco, it would be a tad easier for Boeing to avoid liabilities.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/more-troubling-internal-boeing-documents-on-737-max-set-for-release/

"The documents include further messages from Mark Forkner, the Boeing pilot whose 2016 instant message exchange with a colleague caused outrage when it was released in October."

Seriously, I would largely prefer technical documents allowing to understand the real actual progress and remaining work for the return to service.


I think the focus is no to avoid a criminal conviction, the RTS is second to this.


Unless there is some kind of securities fraud the justice department comes up with, there is no criminal case. The crashes happened outside of the USA on foreign carriers. Even if there was a federal statute that would apply (which I don't think there is), the US government doesn't have jurisdiction. There is about the same chance of the US extraditing Boeing executives to Indonesia or Ethiopia as there is for a surprise, clean sheet NSA to have its first flight next week.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 700
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:31 pm

aerolimani wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
airnorth wrote:

Not sure why these links do not work:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... v#221ffb73
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... y#221fde12
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... y#224cd53f
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... x#22a7893d

Those links should all work, if not, just search the callsign flight history of C-FTJV, C-GEHY, C-FSCY, and a Westjet plane for good measure C-FRAX in your favorite flight tracker website, you will see all of those flights cruised at speeds of 380 -530 kt, and fl 380 -400. No restrictions on speed, and obviously not cruising with flaps deployed, at those speeds or altitudes. There may have been some flights in other jurisdictions where the MAX could only fly at certain speeds and altitudes, but that is clearly not the case in USA or Canada. I'm sure there were definite parameters around these flights, plus all of the other ferry flights, but they are not restricted to 180kt, and flaps deployed as another poster has suggested.


You can fly any MAX with special insurance cert, special approval from the governing body in which airspace you fly and most importantly no PAX on board. That is a problem if you want to use this aircraft as a commercial aircraft. But right now if the airforce needs targets they are good to go. Unfortunately this kind of aircraft go around 1mio and that is not good for boeing

Apparently, you guys missed the outrage when Air Canada was conducting training flights in a MAX: https://globalnews.ca/news/5918545/boei ... -training/


As I said: Special cert, special permission and no pax. Good for the pilots but not generating revenue. For a dedicated passenger aircraft, this just burns fuel for nothing.
 
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sebolino
Posts: 3565
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:43 pm

lowbank wrote:

Boeing’s biggest issue if it does get it recertified will be getting its supply chain back up to speed as trained workers will have found new jobs.


Well, I believe it's not much of a problem compare to the necessary task they will have to perform: regain confidence of the companies, the pilots and the passengers, after so many lies and actions dictated by greed.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10337
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:59 pm

StTim wrote:
Anything else puts the company/US above the travelling public.

As it relates to large companies employing thousands of workers and providing a product that benefits many thousands more, it has always been thus.....
 
StTim
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:06 pm

par13del wrote:
StTim wrote:
Anything else puts the company/US above the travelling public.

As it relates to large companies employing thousands of workers and providing a product that benefits many thousands more, it has always been thus.....


But this time I do not think the regulatory authorities in the rest of the world will aquiesce.
 
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par13del
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Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:08 pm

StTim wrote:
par13del wrote:
StTim wrote:
Anything else puts the company/US above the travelling public.

As it relates to large companies employing thousands of workers and providing a product that benefits many thousands more, it has always been thus.....


But this time I do not think the regulatory authorities in the rest of the world will aquiesce.

...because at present their citizens are not paying the price....if and when they do, expect a different tone. Whether we like it or not, at the end of the day the world runs on money.
 
StTim
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Re: Out of the question, the Max never being certified?

Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:40 pm

par13del wrote:
StTim wrote:
par13del wrote:
As it relates to large companies employing thousands of workers and providing a product that benefits many thousands more, it has always been thus.....


But this time I do not think the regulatory authorities in the rest of the world will aquiesce.

...because at present their citizens are not paying the price....if and when they do, expect a different tone. Whether we like it or not, at the end of the day the world runs on money.


And it seems according to you American bullying.
 
LJ
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:03 pm

planecane wrote:
Unless there is some kind of securities fraud the justice department comes up with, there is no criminal case. The crashes happened outside of the USA on foreign carriers. Even if there was a federal statute that would apply (which I don't think there is), the US government doesn't have jurisdiction. There is about the same chance of the US extraditing Boeing executives to Indonesia or Ethiopia as there is for a surprise, clean sheet NSA to have its first flight next week.


Criminal prosecution is a global threat for Boeing, not just an US one. It's a multinational and I reckon Boeing executives do need to travel outside the US. Those country may not have a problem with extraditing to Ethiopia and/or Indonesia (though I would surprised if it would come that far).
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:07 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
airnorth wrote:
Pleas follow the forum rules and when you read responses that you wish to reply to, compose your response to the comment made so it is in context.

Nice! And not a little ironic. :roll:

But the good news is that we are now both in agreement; these ferry flights do not represent "normal" MAX operations in the slightest, and certainly offer no risk of aft CG contributing to a situation where MCAS would be required in the first place.

The original context (ref: #5208) was a demonstration of flight without problems ("If it flies without problems why not just demonstrate it?"). Several recent examples were posted. The request did not say it needed to be a "normal" operational flight. We all know MCAS 1.0 is not acceptable in general, that's why we have this thread. Yet it doesn't mean MAX is not safe for the majority of its flight envelope. It's safe enough even with MCAS 1.0 installed that a crew that is trained to avoid its operation and trained on how to disable it can fly the aircraft as-is at normal speeds and altitudes.

ACATROYAL wrote:
Well its now official! The Max 9 and 10 are useless and Boeing wants to introduce a completely new plane sometime in 2021 or thereabouts to compete with the vastly superior A321 according to LNA!

Total nonsense, absolutely nothing "official" on LNA or any other site along these lines.

lowbank wrote:
The recent announcements about the MAX are really concerning.
I have been convinced in the last couple of months that the MAX is unlikely to be certified again. That’s sad news indeed.

If it makes you feel better, just last week the head of EASA said he expected MAX to return to service around the end of February, and I think he has a lot better vantage point to judge this than any media member or a.net poster, unless FAA's Steve Dickson has an a.net account.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:55 pm

LJ wrote:
planecane wrote:
Unless there is some kind of securities fraud the justice department comes up with, there is no criminal case. The crashes happened outside of the USA on foreign carriers. Even if there was a federal statute that would apply (which I don't think there is), the US government doesn't have jurisdiction. There is about the same chance of the US extraditing Boeing executives to Indonesia or Ethiopia as there is for a surprise, clean sheet NSA to have its first flight next week.


Criminal prosecution is a global threat for Boeing, not just an US one. It's a multinational and I reckon Boeing executives do need to travel outside the US. Those country may not have a problem with extraditing to Ethiopia and/or Indonesia (though I would surprised if it would come that far).


Any executives involved enough to be criminally charged will likely "resign" or be fired within the next year. At that point, they have no need to travel outside the US.

Do you really believe that either Ethiopia or Indonesia would charge Boeing executives and start a fight with the US government? I don't.

Extradition treaties all say that the crime has to be against the laws of the US (in this case). I have done some research into the US federal statutes and I can't find any federal law that would allow prosecution of executives (or engineers) in this situation. There are state laws that I have found but those don't matter in the case of extradition treaties.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:07 pm

This worries me a bit:

Boeing:

737 NG = out of production / replaced
737 MAX = grounded / production halted
747 = end of production
767 = only producing freighters and tankers / tankers delayed due to various problems
777 = selling relatively well / being replaced / freighters doing okay
777X = selling / not in production / delayed / not certified
787 = selling / doing well / on track

Airbus:

A220 series = selling well / on track / production ramp up
A320ceo series = out of production / being replaced
A320neo series = selling well / on track / production ramp up
A330 = end of production / being replaced / only selling MRTT and freighters
A330neo = doing relatively well / on track
A350 = selling / doing well / on track
A380 = end of production

And one question:

Is it possible to certify the 737 MAX as a freighter without having to solve the MCAS / linear yoke feel problem?
Last edited by JetBuddy on Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:18 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
airnorth wrote:
Air Canada flew theirs to the desert within what I would call "normal" conditions.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... v#221ffb73
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/c-gehy

There are plenty of other examples

So good, operators can fly the 737-8/9 MAX without any passengers. Great deal, problem solved for anyone ! :hypnotized:


Not fully normal, an AC Max flight requires 3 pilots in the cockpit all Captains one of which sits in the jumpseat in case of trim runaway (faulty MCAS activations). I deadheaded a lot of crews from YYZ-YQG for that I the late summer early fall.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:53 pm

planecane wrote:
seahawk wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
"The documents include further messages from Mark Forkner, the Boeing pilot whose 2016 instant message exchange with a colleague caused outrage when it was released in October."

Seriously, I would largely prefer technical documents allowing to understand the real actual progress and remaining work for the return to service.


I think the focus is no to avoid a criminal conviction, the RTS is second to this.


Unless there is some kind of securities fraud the justice department comes up with, there is no criminal case. The crashes happened outside of the USA on foreign carriers. Even if there was a federal statute that would apply (which I don't think there is), the US government doesn't have jurisdiction. There is about the same chance of the US extraditing Boeing executives to Indonesia or Ethiopia as there is for a surprise, clean sheet NSA to have its first flight next week.



I suggest your incorrect, when I sign documents that let components fly, which I do every week. I understand if I mess up, I will be extradited to face charges. That’s why NO external pressures will ever get me to sign anything I am not happy to sign.
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WillyEckers
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:07 pm

A long time lurker but first time poster.

I think something big happenedwhich resulted in the production shutdown and the CEO departure.

All of the people asking for training are missing the point.

When a system is developed, the impact that failures of the systems could have need to be assessed. This was done for the MAX and (based on looking at the system architecture) the consequences seem to have been assessed as “MINOR” (similar to STS).

Empirical evidence shows that there are failure effects which are CATASTROPHIC.

The same failure in two different parts of the world suggest that training alone is not the issue – it is hard to imagine that the exact same training failure could exist like this. And, at 8000 hours, it is difficult to believe that the ET captain had never seen an issue with the NG. For me, this is an aircraft system issue, not a pilot issue.

It seems that there have been changes made to the system – cross comparison of the sensors, improves system robustness and reduction of the authority of the MCAS reduces the consequences of failure.

My guess is that there is still a delta between the system robustness that can be achieved with this architecture and the system robustness that is required. Reading between the lines, it looks like the intention was to fill this gap with the pilot but, again – reading between the lines – this gap couldn’t be filled because half the pilots in the week long simulator session chose the wrong procedure (what does this even mean?). It is hard to imagine that there are any B737 pilots that are not aware of the MCAS issues so half failing in these conditions must be a bit of an issue.

And the FAA director’s comments are interesting. He didn’t say “we have all we need and will work a little overtime over the festive season to get this approved”. Rather, he said that the “focus should be on the quality and timeliness of data submittals for FAA review”.

We should listen to XRAYretired – he knows what he’s talking about!
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:12 pm

lowbank wrote:
planecane wrote:
seahawk wrote:

I think the focus is no to avoid a criminal conviction, the RTS is second to this.


Unless there is some kind of securities fraud the justice department comes up with, there is no criminal case. The crashes happened outside of the USA on foreign carriers. Even if there was a federal statute that would apply (which I don't think there is), the US government doesn't have jurisdiction. There is about the same chance of the US extraditing Boeing executives to Indonesia or Ethiopia as there is for a surprise, clean sheet NSA to have its first flight next week.



I suggest your incorrect, when I sign documents that let components fly, which I do every week. I understand if I mess up, I will be extradited to face charges. That’s why NO external pressures will ever get me to sign anything I am not happy to sign.


If you work in the US and have to sign that, then I stand corrected. I was going by researching what I could in my free time.
 
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Raiden
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:33 pm

planecane wrote:
LJ wrote:
planecane wrote:
Unless there is some kind of securities fraud the justice department comes up with, there is no criminal case. The crashes happened outside of the USA on foreign carriers. Even if there was a federal statute that would apply (which I don't think there is), the US government doesn't have jurisdiction. There is about the same chance of the US extraditing Boeing executives to Indonesia or Ethiopia as there is for a surprise, clean sheet NSA to have its first flight next week.


Criminal prosecution is a global threat for Boeing, not just an US one. It's a multinational and I reckon Boeing executives do need to travel outside the US. Those country may not have a problem with extraditing to Ethiopia and/or Indonesia (though I would surprised if it would come that far).


Any executives involved enough to be criminally charged will likely "resign" or be fired within the next year. At that point, they have no need to travel outside the US.

Do you really believe that either Ethiopia or Indonesia would charge Boeing executives and start a fight with the US government? I don't.

Extradition treaties all say that the crime has to be against the laws of the US (in this case). I have done some research into the US federal statutes and I can't find any federal law that would allow prosecution of executives (or engineers) in this situation. There are state laws that I have found but those don't matter in the case of extradition treaties.


Not sure why yer conflating executives and engineers. The execs are in bigger trouble than the engineers. After all they are the ones who get to overrule the others. So the suits are definitely liable for prosecution by Ethio and Indo authorities if it comes to that. Their only saving grace is that those nations probably never had such a case, so "inexperience" will most likely motivate them to rely on Western legal assets... which itself then will lead to negotiations aimed at putting the squeeze on Boeing goons from within its own homeland's legal framework... which then will lead to "back to square one": the core problem of Boeing using its modern era "too big" status to continually subvert domestic oversight, whether it comes from the executive (FAA), legislative or judicial branch.
Last edited by Raiden on Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:54 pm, edited 8 times in total.
 
lowbank
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:44 pm

lowbank wrote:
The recent announcements about the MAX are really concerning.
I have been convinced in the last couple of months that the MAX is unlikely to be certified again. That’s sad news indeed.

If it makes you feel better, just last week the head of EASA said he expected MAX to return to service around the end of February, and I think he has a lot better vantage point to judge this than any media member or a.net poster, unless FAA's Steve Dickson has an a.net account.[/quote]

Frankly NO it doesn’t.
I have many colleagues who have worked on the T1000 issues.
Several have done lunch and learn sessions where they share their work and the plans for introduction of the new parts.

The level of detail and the investigation that goes into identifying true root cause and then the detailed plans to get that fix into service is at times mind blowing.

When I see press releases from my company, internally I can see the detail behind it.

Watching month by month slippages with no apparent plan behind it scares me for Boeing.

What I expect to see is.
We understand the true root cause.
Planned fix will take X time, yes it may go to the right slightly but at least there’s a plan.


This whole scenario smacks of we don’t actually know what’s wrong , so we are blindly trying to fix a problem we have not defined correctly.
Every days a school day.
 
lowbank
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:53 pm

planecane wrote:
lowbank wrote:
planecane wrote:

Unless there is some kind of securities fraud the justice department comes up with, there is no criminal case. The crashes happened outside of the USA on foreign carriers. Even if there was a federal statute that would apply (which I don't think there is), the US government doesn't have jurisdiction. There is about the same chance of the US extraditing Boeing executives to Indonesia or Ethiopia as there is for a surprise, clean sheet NSA to have its first flight next week.



I suggest your incorrect, when I sign documents that let components fly, which I do every week. I understand if I mess up, I will be extradited to face charges. That’s why NO external pressures will ever get me to sign anything I am not happy to sign.


If you work in the US and have to sign that, then I stand corrected. I was going by researching what I could in my free time.



I work in the UK, but would have thought the same rules apply.

However on the other hand it does appear your citizens can kill UK citizens, run home and that’s acceptable.
Not sure if your aware of the US lady who forgot which side of the road to drive and killed a lad 18 I think, flew home claiming diplomatic immunity.
Whilst it’s an unfortunate accident and I don’t think for a minute the Lady should or would be jailed, she should face uk justice.
Every days a school day.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:11 pm

lowbank wrote:
planecane wrote:
lowbank wrote:


I suggest your incorrect, when I sign documents that let components fly, which I do every week. I understand if I mess up, I will be extradited to face charges. That’s why NO external pressures will ever get me to sign anything I am not happy to sign.


If you work in the US and have to sign that, then I stand corrected. I was going by researching what I could in my free time.



I work in the UK, but would have thought the same rules apply.

However on the other hand it does appear your citizens can kill UK citizens, run home and that’s acceptable.
Not sure if your aware of the US lady who forgot which side of the road to drive and killed a lad 18 I think, flew home claiming diplomatic immunity.
Whilst it’s an unfortunate accident and I don’t think for a minute the Lady should or would be jailed, she should face uk justice.


I am somewhat sure that there is no US federal statute that would allow for prosecution of anybody involved in MCAS and the resulting crashes and deaths. If my research didn't miss anything, the US government would not extradite to a country that tried to charge somebody because it wouldn't be a crime under US law.

I am not aware of the story of that lady that killed somebody driving on the wrong side of the road. I'm not sure where something like that would land as far as extradition goes. Vehicular laws in the US are typically state laws. There are federal murder laws but something like that would more likely be vehicular manslaughter.
 
lowbank
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:42 pm

planecane wrote:
lowbank wrote:
planecane wrote:

If you work in the US and have to sign that, then I stand corrected. I was going by researching what I could in my free time.



I work in the UK, but would have thought the same rules apply.

However on the other hand it does appear your citizens can kill UK citizens, run home and that’s acceptable.
Not sure if your aware of the US lady who forgot which side of the road to drive and killed a lad 18 I think, flew home claiming diplomatic immunity.
Whilst it’s an unfortunate accident and I don’t think for a minute the Lady should or would be jailed, she should face uk justice.


I am somewhat sure that there is no US federal statute that would allow for prosecution of anybody involved in MCAS and the resulting crashes and deaths. If my research didn't miss anything, the US government would not extradite to a country that tried to charge somebody because it wouldn't be a crime under US law.

I am not aware of the story of that lady that killed somebody driving on the wrong side of the road. I'm not sure where something like that would land as far as extradition goes. Vehicular laws in the US are typically state laws. There are federal murder laws but something like that would more likely be vehicular manslaughter.



https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-nor ... e-50030750
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:02 pm

 
Agrajag
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:35 pm

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproj ... ations-faa will we ever see these emails i wonder. How did the others come to public view? DM crying all the way to the bank and a nice little island somewhere.
The plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:48 pm

The recent announcements about the MAX are really concerning.
I have been convinced in the last couple of months that the MAX is unlikely to be certified again. That’s sad news indeed.

If it makes you feel better, just last week the head of EASA said he expected MAX to return to service around the end of February, and I think he has a lot better vantage point to judge this than any media member or a.net poster, unless FAA's Steve Dickson has an a.net account.


Frankly NO it doesn’t.
I have many colleagues who have worked on the T1000 issues.
Several have done lunch and learn sessions where they share their work and the plans for introduction of the new parts.

The level of detail and the investigation that goes into identifying true root cause and then the detailed plans to get that fix into service is at times mind blowing.

When I see press releases from my company, internally I can see the detail behind it.

Watching month by month slippages with no apparent plan behind it scares me for Boeing.

What I expect to see is.
We understand the true root cause.
Planned fix will take X time, yes it may go to the right slightly but at least there’s a plan.


This whole scenario smacks of we don’t actually know what’s wrong , so we are blindly trying to fix a problem we have not defined correctly.


I think that this is the most likely reason of the consistent delays.

There may be issues replicating the actual failure scenario. i.e., the sequence of events recorded on the accident flights.

We know that MCAS was improperly designed, but that's just the monster wrecking havoc, perhaps the problem is that they can't find what opened the cage that was keeping it under control, something within the ADIRS perhaps. Some chipsets or shorting PCB's causing unexpected failure modes that haven't been identified yet, meaning they may be checking ADIRS on several aircraft to see if they can find a defect that causes it, ie it could take months to find the actual issue.

Another thing could be certification compliance.
At this point I don't think that it's about pilot training. Minor differences can be compensated by differences training, in terms of budget, that's hours in a simulator, not something that would cause the suspension of the production.
It could just be thhat the airflow pattern created by the higher position of the engine/intake, as I described at the beginnning of the crisis, may be making the aircraft behave so differently that it can't comply with certain certificztion standards without additional mods or solutions.


Regarding criminal prosecution.
While Ethiopia and Indonesia can prosecute, Boeing can also be prosecuted in the U.S. for many reasons.
While the crashes occurred in Ethiopia and Indonesia, if criminal conduct took place in the U.S. and considering some of the passengers were Americans, they can be sued in civil court and any criminal conduct discovered during those proceedings can open up to criminal proceedings.



After the Ethiopian crash, it's is clear that Boeing's top management realised that they were in big trouble and wanted to minimise it by trying to avoid a grounding.
Airliners.net was outraged with the exception of some die-hard Boeing fans, and so were many civila aviation authorities that started groundings out of their own initiative.

Quite frankly, one has to say what needs to be said.
Indonesia and Ethiopia may be third world countries, and people were quick to blame training and pilot standards based on that criterium, but Boeing and FAA are showing that U.S. administrations and corporations are a hillbilly-run thirld world country, with all the corruption, money-before-safety, disrespect for human life, etc... that it entails. After all the talk about capitalism and technology, when you see what goes on behind the scenes, it is a jungle where idiots concerned with personal gain are doing things without concern for the consequences of their actions, or perhaps they don't know what they're doing.
I also caught a glimpse of that at PAS, where I approached different OEM's about a potential leap in technology. Boeing was the only OEM not even interested to listen. With that kind of attitude, they won't get far, talent within Boeing will also probably see no self-development potential and move to Lockheed Martin or Europe.


This being said, the B737 will not die here.
Worst case scenario, Boeing has the option to go back to offering B737NG's. Yes, airlines want the MAX or the NEO, but if no other options are available, they'll order the NG. Most likely scenario, the MAX will get the required mods, even if it may take a couple of years to get things sorted.

FSA, NSA, MOM, NMA: forget about it.
Boeing is going to spend the next 5 years fighting for survival, getting the B737 back on track and will probably see itself submitted to extensive certification requirements on the B777X. It won't have the budget to spend on a whole new high-risk program.
Engine technology also does not justify a whole new program.

As said previously, I think that restarting NG production is a must at this point.
One more option that Boeing has is the Ejet. While the expensive acquisition of the Ejet program was a mistake in my view, the E2 production is running and the E295 is big enough to be useful as a stopgap, it's in production and with production capacity to spare. Offering it as a stopgap could enable the E2 program to break through and Boeing to win some time while they get NG production going, and the MAX sorted.
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:00 am

And then there's this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/24/busi ... urvey.html

Incredible. They can't figure out what's wrong with it but they've already drafted the PR doublespeak to convince an increasingly reluctant public to fly on it.

Absolutely incredible.

The MAX really is doomed...

Beech
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:01 am

The world needs Boeing to not only survive, but also get the 737 Max back in service somehow. If the Max is grounded for another 12 months, airlines will cease to have any confidence in it, and future sales heavily damaged. The corollary is that Airbus becomes a global monopoly supplier of 150-200 seat aircraft, but has only half the production capacity compared to world demand for aircraft capable of A320-type missions

I don't believe EASA want this sort of outcome, and sooner or later they will find themselves having to approve a Max return to service. The head of EASA can act against a single misbehaving airline... but if dozens of European airline start putting pressure on EASA, then EASA will have to change their message
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:12 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
As said previously, I think that restarting NG production is a must at this point.


I'm beginning to also think there's not much choice. First of all the market needs the aircraft. Air Canada can't keep some of the oldest A320s still flying in the air forever.

I think though, if they do this, it will be tacit admission the the MAX is dead. And they'll have to practically give them away, or lease them dirt cheap power-by-the-hour. Airlines won't want to invest capital in a 20 year old design. It will be clearly a stop-gap, as airlines bide their time on the Airbus waiting list.

Boeing is at real risk of being toast in the single-aisle market. Even by the time they get the MAX sorted, IF they get the MAX sorted, Airbus will be well on its way to its next clean-sheet single-aisle design.

Beech
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:22 am

beechnut wrote:
And then there's this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/24/busi ... urvey.html

Incredible. They can't figure out what's wrong with it but they've already drafted the PR doublespeak to convince an increasingly reluctant public to fly on it.

Absolutely incredible.

The MAX really is doomed...

Beech


What an interesting article. It says, of the people surveyed, 40% or so would be really concerned on flying the MAX. It presented proposed strategies for handling those people even while in flight.

Personally, I would feel safe after the first few minutes until approach without flaps. Once they were deployed, I would be OK again. At least I know when to pop my Xanax.
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:25 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
The world needs Boeing to not only survive, but also get the 737 Max back in service somehow. If the Max is grounded for another 12 months, airlines will cease to have any confidence in it, and future sales heavily damaged. The corollary is that Airbus becomes a global monopoly supplier of 150-200 seat aircraft, but has only half the production capacity compared to world demand for aircraft capable of A320-type missions

I don't believe EASA want this sort of outcome, and sooner or later they will find themselves having to approve a Max return to service. The head of EASA can act against a single misbehaving airline... but if dozens of European airline start putting pressure on EASA, then EASA will have to change their message


While you bring up some excellent points about the need for Boeing to survive, I don't think the flying public should have to put up with less than optimal safety.

Either they can make the MAX safe, or they cannot. Frankly I'm increasingly pessimistic. Boeing is not coming clean. They're preparing a typical PR "truth is what we want you to believe" campaign, instead of giving us (and the FAA!) the straight goods. The suspension of production leads me to believe that RTS is not imminent. If as they claim it will be back in the air in March... well a 3 month suspension of production is a LOT of grief for such a short time. Slow it to a trickle maybe, but not stop it altogether. No this smells like a very long grounding. Or it was a very clumsy pressure tactic directed at the FAA and politicians.

I don't want to fly on a political compromise. I want to fly on a safe aircraft. I also believe that nobody, including the FAA or EASA or TC, want blood on their hands if they let the MAX of too easy and there's another crash.

Beech
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:29 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
We know that MCAS was improperly designed, but that's just the monster wrecking havoc, perhaps the problem is that they can't find what opened the cage that was keeping it under control, something within the ADIRS perhaps. Some chipsets or shorting PCB's causing unexpected failure modes that haven't been identified yet, meaning they may be checking ADIRS on several aircraft to see if they can find a defect that causes it, ie it could take months to find the actual issue.

After so many experts having published official reviews on the subject, that ADIRU scenario probability is actually extremely unlikely. The main problem with that scenario is that the erratic AoA angle recorded on the JT043, JT610, and ET302 was from the SMYD, not the ADIRU that feed the FCC containing the STS with MCAS function, A failure at the ADIRU level would not have let the SMYD send an erratic AoA value to the FDR.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:

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