Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
hivue
Posts: 2093
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:27 pm

lowbank wrote:
That’s not the regulators place, they just set the standard to be past and judge when it has.
It Boeing’s job to meet it and plan it’s work load to get there!


What work load does Boeing still have to undertake to "get there?" Do you have any documentation? Do you think Boeing are just sitting on their hands?

If Boeing have done all the work needed, why haven't the regulators estimated for us when the standard will be considered passed and the judgement will be made? If they haven't done all the work needed, why haven't the regulators told us that?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:39 pm

hivue wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
Maybe he is wrong? I mean it would be the first timeline, which proved to be correct regarding the grounding.


The regulators really do need to provide some sort of concrete guidance here, even if that concrete guidance is, "We have absolutely no idea when this airplane will be flying again." If they think Boeing still has work to do before they -- the regulators -- can proceed to a conclusion then they need to state that clearly.

With the FAL shutdown, even though Boeing employees will be getting paid they can't possibly be feeling comfortable about the situation. And the sub-contractors' and suppliers' people need to be told something meaningful and useful so they can plan their futures.


Without having proof, my take off the situation is, that Boeing having got used to getting exemptions from the rules in regards to the 737, by pushing back on the FAA, are unused to the current situation and did not take the lists of requirements, presented by the different regulators, serious.
I assume it was an incredulous, you really want us to fix all that, situation.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10404
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:48 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Without having proof, my take off the situation is, that Boeing having got used to getting exemptions from the rules in regards to the 737, by pushing back on the FAA, are unused to the current situation and did not take the lists of requirements, presented by the different regulators, serious.
I assume it was an incredulous, you really want us to fix all that, situation.

Which is the way the process works, Boeing and the FAA then get together and decide whether everything is drop dead have to be fixed for RTS, can be introduced into the line at unit number X and retrofitted in X years, simply nice to have or minimum required to RTS.
We saw the long list including those from EASA, what we have not seen or heard anything about is where the FAA stands on that list in particular the cables and small trim wheel, zip nada, nothing, so we are all speculating.
I do not see Boeing on its own going any further on modifications until RTS, as anything they do on their own will affect the certification process, just as they made changes to the 787-9 then introduced to the 787-8 they can do changes to the 737, but with the a/c grounded, it is probably prudent to do those in conjunction with the FAA.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2578
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:07 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Boeing announced two things:

1 production suspended
2 prioritisation for RTS of delivering the parked frames over factory fresh new builds

This suggests to me that whereas they previously anticipated that fixes to the parked fleet would be applied where they are parked, they may now plan to return the parked frames to the factory in order to apply the fixes now required.


That could explain certain things. Like the shutdown and why a fix has not been submitted yet.

If the fix is so extensive it needs to be done in-house, it would make perfect sense.

I have another question regarding certification and type rating:

Could the MAX be assigned a different type rating while retaining the 737 certification?

The reason I'm wondering is because the MAX is not going to be re-certified as something other than a 737. It's architecture and systems would never pass muster. The only way it's certifyable is through grandfathering.

The fix however, could be so extensive it requires a different type rating than the current 737.

Are these two things fully independent of each other? Or is one tied to the other?
 
lowbank
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:10 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:14 pm

hivue wrote:
lowbank wrote:
That’s not the regulators place, they just set the standard to be past and judge when it has.
It Boeing’s job to meet it and plan it’s work load to get there!


What work load does Boeing still have to undertake to "get there?" Do you have any documentation? Do you think Boeing are just sitting on their hands?

If Boeing have done all the work needed, why haven't the regulators estimated for us when the standard will be considered passed and the judgement will be made? If they haven't done all the work needed, why haven't the regulators told us that?



Being as I don’t work for the FAA, how the hell would I know.

The FAA don’t need to tell anyone when the standard may be passed, they just set it and judge it. It’s up to Boeing to meet it by providing proof.
Every days a school day.
 
hivue
Posts: 2093
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:34 pm

lowbank wrote:
The FAA don’t need to tell anyone when the standard may be passed


If that's actually the case then I can foresee a Q4 2020 thread for this discussion. Or are you saying that we're going to wake up one morning and they're going to surprise us and announce that the MAX has passed all the requirements and is now ready for revenue service?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2296
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:49 pm

Could it be that production is halted because it was realized that a trained workforce and space is needed to get 40 planes a month already built corrected, serviced and delivered. Doing the work in the parking lot may not be efficient and likely throw in certification issues like the early A380's had with the wiring. Even at 50 / mo delivered there is 8 months of built frames, so the line starts back up say 4 -5 months after the revisions are approved.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4423
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:59 pm

Res hurrying up the FAA. They probably are going as fast as they can. They have limited personnel and need to be coordinating with other country's regulatory agencies. But it is reasonable to expect them to have this close to #1 priority, at least for return to service. There likely are other issues which may need to be addressed.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
NonTechAvLover
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:09 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:05 pm

Revelation wrote:
kyu wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I can't read the man's mind, I am only going on what was reported on flightglobal.com.

He is being polite and diplomatic, assuming the optimum outcome. That is all.

I can buy polite and diplomatic, but when Ky's "exchange of views" PDF was released in September he wasn't being called optimistic, he was being called forthright. I don't see why we should see him as anything else right now. He released his timeline statement a day or so after the news about Dickson complaining about timelines came out and I doubt that was an accident. I think it was intended to defuse some of the same kind of panic we still find on this thread.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Dennis is probably smoking cigars with John in the shadow of a palm tree on some private island about now, talking about the days that they used to sell flying metal and plastic lemons.

DM is a long distance bicycler, a cigar is the last thing I'd expect him to be enjoying.


I do not think it is the job of a regulator to make "polite and diplomatic" statements, especially on matters that fall within his/her regulatory authority. Unless the gentleman is known to be a frustrated ambassador who was traumatized by being rejected by the French foreign service, I would take him at his word, especially because of the significance of the issue.

As for defusing panic, that is not the exact job description of a regulator either, but I can see instances where that can be appropriate and I agree that this may be one of those instances. In any event, I think it is a very important statement and unless he is speaking without knowledge, a good sign for the MAX RTS.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:24 pm

hivue wrote:
The regulators really do need to provide some sort of concrete guidance here, even if that concrete guidance is, "We have absolutely no idea when this airplane will be flying again." If they think Boeing still has work to do before they -- the regulators -- can proceed to a conclusion then they need to state that clearly.

With the FAL shutdown, even though Boeing employees will be getting paid they can't possibly be feeling comfortable about the situation. And the sub-contractors' and suppliers' people need to be told something meaningful and useful so they can plan their futures.

To be fair to the regulators, they can only provide 'concrete guidance', when Boeing stop saying you have it all, and then have another oops moment, and front with more emails and other information.

Industry impatience isn't directed at the regulators. It's fairly and squarely directed at Boeing, who seemed to think for the first 6 months they could bluff the regulators.

That strategy has backfired, not only with the MAX, but because the FAA and EASA are picking their way through X documentation, reviewing especially every Boeing, FAA, and Boeing / FAA hand that has touched the MAX and X.

And armed forces are asking regulators to share, given aspects of the MAX investigation have been widened to the NG, and some military versions are NG with hybrid / quasi MAX features.

The change at the top is the last opportunity for Boeing to confirm that regulators do 'have it all', and to purge managers that have been withholding documents, and preventing staff at the coal face from talking.

By the end of January, the FAA will want an assurance, in blood, from Boeing's top management there are no cupboards unopened, or gagged staff still to speak, at which point, an FAA action required and timeline will be released (with EASA a respectable 2-4 working days later), to which Boeing will publicly commit with a timetable to complete, including regular separate FAA and Boeing media briefings.

To avoid distractions and create the impression 100% of Boeing resources are directed at the MAX resolution / RTS, there will be an embargo on other models, so no MAX 10 or X announcements / test flights.

In return, FAA / EASA will suspend RFI's in respect to all other models under investigation / review, though the work will continue.
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:44 pm

par13del wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Without having proof, my take off the situation is, that Boeing having got used to getting exemptions from the rules in regards to the 737, by pushing back on the FAA, are unused to the current situation and did not take the lists of requirements, presented by the different regulators, serious.
I assume it was an incredulous, you really want us to fix all that, situation.

Which is the way the process works, Boeing and the FAA then get together and decide whether everything is drop dead have to be fixed for RTS, can be introduced into the line at unit number X and retrofitted in X years, simply nice to have or minimum required to RTS.
We saw the long list including those from EASA, what we have not seen or heard anything about is where the FAA stands on that list in particular the cables and small trim wheel, zip nada, nothing, so we are all speculating.
I do not see Boeing on its own going any further on modifications until RTS, as anything they do on their own will affect the certification process, just as they made changes to the 787-9 then introduced to the 787-8 they can do changes to the 737, but with the a/c grounded, it is probably prudent to do those in conjunction with the FAA.


Certainly both Boeing and the FAA are complicit in this bed they’ve made together. So, they’re complicit in how they get out of it. Neither is saying a word other than it won’t fly until it’s safe. Hence the blackhole of pilot performance analysis, training requirements review, and certification documentation, all used as cover for whatever Boeing may actually be working on.

With a production shutdown, one can consider that includes manual trim wheel changes, rudder cable protection, and possibly pickle fork issues. If they were still working on MCAS software, and were sure the above mechanical issues weren’t a concern, then they wouldn’t need a shutdown (or threat of a shutdown).

Of course it could be anything, including Boeing going nuclear option and doing all this as a final push to pressure all involved. They did signal they were too big to fail by parking a grounded Max in their employee parking lot.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
hivue
Posts: 2093
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:11 pm

smartplane wrote:
By the end of January, the FAA will want an assurance, in blood, from Boeing's top management there are no cupboards unopened, or gagged staff still to speak, at which point, an FAA action required and timeline will be released (with EASA a respectable 2-4 working days later)


This is precisely the kind of "concrete guidance" I'm talking about. It says what the regulators expect of Boeing and when they expect to have it, and it tells us exactly when, if all that happens, to expect a timeline leading to RTS. So why hasn't the FAA publicly stated this or something similar?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4340
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:12 pm

The FAA does not have to hold Boeing's hand in the process. They say these are the standards that have to be met, and it's Boeing's job to meet those standards. Just like when I took my exams for my A&P, the person signing my test result was not allowed to steer me during the exam. He was only there to observe.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24822
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:22 pm

hivue wrote:
lowbank wrote:
That’s not the regulators place, they just set the standard to be past and judge when it has.
It Boeing’s job to meet it and plan it’s work load to get there!

What work load does Boeing still have to undertake to "get there?" Do you have any documentation? Do you think Boeing are just sitting on their hands?

If Boeing have done all the work needed, why haven't the regulators estimated for us when the standard will be considered passed and the judgement will be made? If they haven't done all the work needed, why haven't the regulators told us that?

The documentation is the Federal Air Regulations, often called the FARs. Boeing has to prove they meet them. FAA will evaluate the package Boeing provides. FAA can't possibly say how long it takes to evaluate that package, it has to work through the whole thing to figure out if all the proposed changes meet the FARs. Then since FAA wants global RTS we also wait till the global regulators evaluate and approve the package. FAA's Dickson said the check list to RTS had more than a dozen items on it.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2707
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
hivue wrote:
lowbank wrote:
That’s not the regulators place, they just set the standard to be past and judge when it has.
It Boeing’s job to meet it and plan it’s work load to get there!

What work load does Boeing still have to undertake to "get there?" Do you have any documentation? Do you think Boeing are just sitting on their hands?

If Boeing have done all the work needed, why haven't the regulators estimated for us when the standard will be considered passed and the judgement will be made? If they haven't done all the work needed, why haven't the regulators told us that?

The documentation is the Federal Air Regulations, often called the FARs. Boeing has to prove they meet them. FAA will evaluate the package Boeing provides. FAA can't possibly say how long it takes to evaluate that package, it has to work through the whole thing to figure out if all the proposed changes meet the FARs. Then since FAA wants global RTS we also wait till the global regulators evaluate and approve the package. FAA's Dickson said the check list to RTS had more than a dozen items on it.


Dickson wanting to wait until every other regulator around the globe approves the RTS is like the Pentagon waiting until every other country approves of our defense plans. It shows weakness at best and unlawful at worst. That would be like my insurance company approving surgery but holding off until they find out if their competitors would make the same decision. I'd be ready to file a lawsuit and I'm sure Boeing might feel the same way. If the FAA has all of their criteria met then the Max should be returned to service in the US. End of story.
 
tomcat
Posts: 612
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:46 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Boeing announced two things:

1 production suspended
2 prioritisation for RTS of delivering the parked frames over factory fresh new builds

This suggests to me that whereas they previously anticipated that fixes to the parked fleet would be applied where they are parked, they may now plan to return the parked frames to the factory in order to apply the fixes now required.


That could explain certain things. Like the shutdown and why a fix has not been submitted yet.

If the fix is so extensive it needs to be done in-house, it would make perfect sense.



And let's not forget the almost 400 MAX already delivered which will need to be reworked as well. We talk of a total of about 800 aircraft to be reworked.

It's the best interest of Boeing to resume the production asap in order to limit the damages to its supply chain. I would expect Boeing to resume its production as soon as the redesigned components will be available to feed their assembly line. The rework of the already built MAX would run in parallel to that in a sort of dedicated rework line if indeed a significant rework is required.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24822
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:54 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Dickson wanting to wait until every other regulator around the globe approves the RTS is like the Pentagon waiting until every other country approves of our defense plans. It shows weakness at best and unlawful at worst. That would be like my insurance company approving surgery but holding off until they find out if their competitors would make the same decision.

And yet many media outlets report that Dickson is going to wait for the global approval and no one is calling him out for it. Boeing isn't exactly in a position where they can make demands.

TTailedTiger wrote:
I'd be ready to file a lawsuit and I'm sure Boeing might feel the same way. If the FAA has all of their criteria met then the Max should be returned to service in the US. End of story.

Boeing's CEO just "got resigned" and Boeing's chief lawyer and adviser to the CEO just announced his retirement. I don't think we'll be seeing Boeing suing the US Government any time soon. Boeing's strategy was to use power (some say bullying) to drive a quick RTS. I think its very likely that Boeing is stepping back from that strategy.
Last edited by Revelation on Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20602
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:55 pm

par13del wrote:
hivue wrote:
.....And the sub-contractors' and suppliers' people need to be told something meaningful and useful so they can plan their futures.

That is the bigger concern, especially since Boeing has been squeezing them to get cost under control, I do not believe that was solely related to the 787.
We know of the benefits of JIT production, there is also a downside, production halts bring everything to a screeching halt.

Many of the vendors cut costs too much to ramp back up quickly. There won't be much impact, until the ramp up. Then expect many issues.

CFMs strategy to dual source everything will pay off. First vendor to ramp back earns a disproportionate share (I assume).

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1353
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:03 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Could it be that production is halted because it was realized that a trained workforce and space is needed to get 40 planes a month already built corrected, serviced and delivered. Doing the work in the parking lot may not be efficient and likely throw in certification issues like the early A380's had with the wiring. Even at 50 / mo delivered there is 8 months of built frames, so the line starts back up say 4 -5 months after the revisions are approved.


tomcat wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Boeing announced two things:

1 production suspended
2 prioritisation for RTS of delivering the parked frames over factory fresh new builds

This suggests to me that whereas they previously anticipated that fixes to the parked fleet would be applied where they are parked, they may now plan to return the parked frames to the factory in order to apply the fixes now required.


That could explain certain things. Like the shutdown and why a fix has not been submitted yet.

If the fix is so extensive it needs to be done in-house, it would make perfect sense.



And let's not forget the almost 400 MAX already delivered which will need to be reworked as well. We talk of a total of about 800 aircraft to be reworked.

It's the best interest of Boeing to resume the production asap in order to limit the damages to its supply chain. I would expect Boeing to resume its production as soon as the redesigned components will be available to feed their assembly line. The rework of the already built MAX would run in parallel to that in a sort of dedicated rework line if indeed a significant rework is required.


I don't think that this is the case.
Airlines have MRO's too and doing mods is part of daily life in any MRO.
You don't need a factory building to install a bigger trim wheel.
The only way that the factory building would make sense is if you are replacing primary structures, like a wing or an empennage.

Plus assembly staff are usually highly specialised in a high rate production environment. The guys who install cockpit avionics do only that every day to maximise procedure compliance and speed.

For me, Boeing is not expecting to produce new MAX aircraft in 2020.
The reason that I can say this with confidence is that Boeing had the option to reduce the production rate to say 25 per month and instead suspended it completely.
Some say that a suspension is easier to manage but I don't see the logic in that. Boeing and suppliers can just ask their staff to take turns to take up their annual leave early in the year so that production can resume at full capacity for the remainder of the year if the suspension were to last less than 6 months.


I wonder what the Russians are going to do.This is their opportunity.
Airbus bought the Cseries from BBD, the Russians could offer Boeing the MC21.
Let Trump make the call, it's his friends anyway.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:06 am

Revelation wrote:
And yet many media outlets report that Dickson is going to wait for the global approval and no one is calling him out for it. Boeing isn't exactly in a position where they can make demands.


Do you honestly expect the media to call out the FAA - a government entity - like they do big corporations?

Boeing (and the public) can and should make demands if the regulator is not acting according to their authority and mission. Requiring the world to sign off first and relinquishing their sole authority to worldwide regulators would be one of those reasons.

Revelation wrote:
Boeing's strategy was to use power (some say bullying) to drive a quick RTS. I think its very likely that Boeing is stepping back from that strategy.


Rev, I respect your posts, but you're using the same assumption that many are in this thread. And that assumption is that all of the sudden the FAA is infallible and is doing everything right. Subsequently any problem/setback/missed deadline lies at the feet of Boeing alone. Not only is that an assumption presented as fact, it's not logical since the only "evidence" that could support it is the appearance that they are now "acting tough" on Boeing, which isn't real evidence at all. What happened to the FAA checklist that Boeing had to meet? What happened to telling us where the MAX is falling short? What happened to this being just about MCAS that the FAA said was fixed months ago?

When you take the totality of the evidence so far, I believe we should be looking at the FAA as the primary reason for the degradation of the situation. It appears their demands are not set in the objective words of regulations and instead may reside in the nebulous minds of a largely unaccountable government agency. In the end it comes down to who you trust more (or distrust less). Am I hanging my hat on the entity that has become less transparent as this drags along? Do I stand behind the entity that appears to be moving the goalposts? Do I trust the entity that is admittedly ceding its authority? Do I trust the entity that is largely unaccountable to the public? Do I believe the entity's leader that has an obvious potential for bias against the other entity? I feel like it takes a fair amount of blind trust to say 'yes' to any of those questions.
Last edited by MSPNWA on Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:06 am

hivue wrote:
smartplane wrote:
By the end of January, the FAA will want an assurance, in blood, from Boeing's top management there are no cupboards unopened, or gagged staff still to speak, at which point, an FAA action required and timeline will be released (with EASA a respectable 2-4 working days later)


This is precisely the kind of "concrete guidance" I'm talking about. It says what the regulators expect of Boeing and when they expect to have it, and it tells us exactly when, if all that happens, to expect a timeline leading to RTS. So why hasn't the FAA publicly stated this or something similar?

Because Boeing keep drip feeding the revelations.

The new CEO must have been briefed by his Board and the FAA. You have 30 days to comply with all our outstanding RFI's, disclosures, requests to interview, etc. If you can do it in less, great.

Presumably the FAA have information / knowledge which Boeing is yet to acknowledge / disclose in shared documentation, etc, which the FAA is using to measure whether Boeing will pass the honesty litmus test.

The delays are all of Boeing's making. The FAA and EASA are not idiots. They will have been using Five Eyes. The new CEO will either not see out the end of January, or will be there until retirement.
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:11 am

smartplane wrote:
The delays are all of Boeing's making. The FAA and EASA are not idiots. They will have been using Five Eyes. The new CEO will either not see out the end of January, or will be there until retirement.


So much for the FAA being "part of the problem". Your blatant reversal of opinion is duly noted.

Like I've said before in this thread, I'm glad the truth is finally out. The initial ire against the FAA was a ruse to mislead. It was not about safety. It was not about the FAA's mistakes. It was about the FAA not being an enemy of the enemy. Now that they show the appearance of being that enemy, all is well. I would laugh if it wasn't so sick.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10404
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:18 am

tomcat wrote:
I would expect Boeing to resume its production as soon as the redesigned components will be available to feed their assembly line.

What are these redesigned components that the FAA has mandated Boeing complete, do you have any source for this, what about the items that they received grandfather exemptions, have you seen a comment somewhere saying that they have been withdrawn?

I ask because if Boeing goes ahead and works on some items without mandates from the FAA, the certification process will run into the RTS and the a/c may quite likely be grounded until 2021 or later. Airbus has a fully FBW a/c and they need to make adjustments for pitch up tendency, that is taking months, so one can just imagine how long it would take on a non-FBW a/c.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2707
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:25 am

MSPNWA wrote:
Revelation wrote:
And yet many media outlets report that Dickson is going to wait for the global approval and no one is calling him out for it. Boeing isn't exactly in a position where they can make demands.


Do you honestly expect the media to call out the FAA - a government entity - like they do big corporations?

Boeing (and the public) can and should make demands if the regulator is not acting according to their authority and mission. Requiring the world to sign off first and relinquishing their sole authority to worldwide regulators would be one of those reasons.

Revelation wrote:
Boeing's strategy was to use power (some say bullying) to drive a quick RTS. I think its very likely that Boeing is stepping back from that strategy.


Rev, I respect your posts, but you're using the same assumption that many are in this thread. And that assumption is that all of the sudden the FAA is infallible and is doing everything right. Subsequently any problem/setback/missed deadline lies at the feet of Boeing alone. Not only is that an assumption presented as fact, it's not logical since the only "evidence" that could support it is the appearance that they are now "acting tough" on Boeing, which isn't real evidence at all. What happened to the FAA checklist that Boeing had to meet? What happened to telling us where the MAX is falling short? What happened to this being just about MCAS that the FAA said was fixed months ago?

When you take the totality of the evidence so far, I believe we should be looking at the FAA as the primary reason for the degradation of the situation. It appears their demands are not set in the objective words of regulations and instead may reside in the nebulous minds of a largely unaccountable government agency. In the end it comes down to who you trust more (or distrust less). Am I hanging my hat on the entity that has become less transparent as this drags along? Do I stand behind the entity that appears to be moving the goalposts? Do I trust the entity that is admittedly ceding its authority? Do I trust the entity that is largely unaccountable to the public? Do I believe the entity's leader that has an obvious potential for bias against the other entity? I feel like it takes a fair amount of blind trust to say 'yes' to any of those questions.


Well said. The FAA is a public office and they need to be kept in check.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:34 am

MSPNWA wrote:
smartplane wrote:
The delays are all of Boeing's making. The FAA and EASA are not idiots. They will have been using Five Eyes. The new CEO will either not see out the end of January, or will be there until retirement.


So much for the FAA being "part of the problem". Your blatant reversal of opinion is duly noted.

Think you have the wrong man.

The FAA was like a rudderless ship, but with a new Captain, and a hotline to EASA, they are like the Energizer bunny.

The FAA can't just stick their fingers in their ears and hum loudly, if evidence and people keep showing up with more information, including Boeing themselves. They have to pause, ask questions, understand the implications, even if not MCAS-related.

Obviously within Boeing, there is pent up frustration with senior management. The tipping point was reached, when long-time, current and ex-Boeing staff felt strongly enough to risk employment, benefits, pensions and legal action to share their concerns. This staff process doesn't have a defined end date, though Boeing themselves could bring it swiftly to an end, by full and frank disclosure. The FAA has given the new CEO this option. Based on accredited quotes, he intends to do just that.
 
tomcat
Posts: 612
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:45 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Could it be that production is halted because it was realized that a trained workforce and space is needed to get 40 planes a month already built corrected, serviced and delivered. Doing the work in the parking lot may not be efficient and likely throw in certification issues like the early A380's had with the wiring. Even at 50 / mo delivered there is 8 months of built frames, so the line starts back up say 4 -5 months after the revisions are approved.


tomcat wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

That could explain certain things. Like the shutdown and why a fix has not been submitted yet.

If the fix is so extensive it needs to be done in-house, it would make perfect sense.



And let's not forget the almost 400 MAX already delivered which will need to be reworked as well. We talk of a total of about 800 aircraft to be reworked.

It's the best interest of Boeing to resume the production asap in order to limit the damages to its supply chain. I would expect Boeing to resume its production as soon as the redesigned components will be available to feed their assembly line. The rework of the already built MAX would run in parallel to that in a sort of dedicated rework line if indeed a significant rework is required.


I don't think that this is the case.
Airlines have MRO's too and doing mods is part of daily life in any MRO.
You don't need a factory building to install a bigger trim wheel.
The only way that the factory building would make sense is if you are replacing primary structures, like a wing or an empennage.

Plus assembly staff are usually highly specialised in a high rate production environment. The guys who install cockpit avionics do only that every day to maximise procedure compliance and speed.



Given that there are now 800 aircraft to rework (I stress that I have no idea of the extent of the rework), we're approaching a scale where it makes sense to implement this rework in an industrial/high rate fashion at a single location even if it's not in a factory building.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2707
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:56 am

smartplane wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
smartplane wrote:
The delays are all of Boeing's making. The FAA and EASA are not idiots. They will have been using Five Eyes. The new CEO will either not see out the end of January, or will be there until retirement.


So much for the FAA being "part of the problem". Your blatant reversal of opinion is duly noted.

Think you have the wrong man.

The FAA was like a rudderless ship, but with a new Captain, and a hotline to EASA, they are like the Energizer bunny.

The FAA can't just stick their fingers in their ears and hum loudly, if evidence and people keep showing up with more information, including Boeing themselves. They have to pause, ask questions, understand the implications, even if not MCAS-related.

Obviously within Boeing, there is pent up frustration with senior management. The tipping point was reached, when long-time, current and ex-Boeing staff felt strongly enough to risk employment, benefits, pensions and legal action to share their concerns. This staff process doesn't have a defined end date, though Boeing themselves could bring it swiftly to an end, by full and frank disclosure. The FAA has given the new CEO this option. Based on accredited quotes, he intends to do just that.


What does the EASA have to do with determining if Boeing meets the criteria the FAA has given them? Why not just dissolve the FAA and cede US aviation authority to the EASA if Dickson is too afraid to do anything without their blessing?
 
tomcat
Posts: 612
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:12 am

par13del wrote:
tomcat wrote:
I would expect Boeing to resume its production as soon as the redesigned components will be available to feed their assembly line.

What are these redesigned components that the FAA has mandated Boeing complete, do you have any source for this, what about the items that they received grandfather exemptions, have you seen a comment somewhere saying that they have been withdrawn?

I ask because if Boeing goes ahead and works on some items without mandates from the FAA, the certification process will run into the RTS and the a/c may quite likely be grounded until 2021 or later. Airbus has a fully FBW a/c and they need to make adjustments for pitch up tendency, that is taking months, so one can just imagine how long it would take on a non-FBW a/c.


I have no idea about the extend of the rework. I'm just thinking that it's the best interest for Boeing to resume the production of the MAX asap for the reason that I have stated above. In order to achieve that, it seems logical that Boeing is constantly updating the MAX design (software and hardware) in line with its latest submissions to the FAA (just like for any new design) and that the affected components are already in production to some degree. In this way, when the updated design will be certified, its new components will be readily available (or available within a very short time) to feed the assembly line and resume the production.
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:03 am

keesje wrote:
It seems Boeing made congress order FAA to delegate to Boeing certifying their own new aircraft, DOA.


When does this portion (Section 211) of the FAA Reauthorization Act become effective? IIRC it was sometime in early January. I forget the source for that, but I believe I heard that during the Muilenberg hearing, Mr. DeFazio I believe.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:54 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
smartplane wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

So much for the FAA being "part of the problem". Your blatant reversal of opinion is duly noted.

Think you have the wrong man.

The FAA was like a rudderless ship, but with a new Captain, and a hotline to EASA, they are like the Energizer bunny.

The FAA can't just stick their fingers in their ears and hum loudly, if evidence and people keep showing up with more information, including Boeing themselves. They have to pause, ask questions, understand the implications, even if not MCAS-related.

Obviously within Boeing, there is pent up frustration with senior management. The tipping point was reached, when long-time, current and ex-Boeing staff felt strongly enough to risk employment, benefits, pensions and legal action to share their concerns. This staff process doesn't have a defined end date, though Boeing themselves could bring it swiftly to an end, by full and frank disclosure. The FAA has given the new CEO this option. Based on accredited quotes, he intends to do just that.


What does the EASA have to do with determining if Boeing meets the criteria the FAA has given them? Why not just dissolve the FAA and cede US aviation authority to the EASA if Dickson is too afraid to do anything without their blessing?


Because EASA is an independent regulator, they do not have to recertify the MAX on the FAA's say so.. And if EASA balks, many of the other regulators will follow suit. Boeing has no use of an FAA certification only, when the bulk of the market is outside the USA. So Boeing has not only to meet the criteria of the FAA.
 
sf260
Posts: 284
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:59 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:01 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Dickson wanting to wait until every other regulator around the globe approves the RTS is like the Pentagon waiting until every other country approves of our defense plans. It shows weakness at best and unlawful at worst. That would be like my insurance company approving surgery but holding off until they find out if their competitors would make the same decision. I'd be ready to file a lawsuit and I'm sure Boeing might feel the same way. If the FAA has all of their criteria met then the Max should be returned to service in the US. End of story.

RTS of 737MAX is about safety of the passengers & crew. It's not about budgets (defense or commercial).

All criteria were "met" for the initial certification of the 737MAX, even though it was not safe (enough), errors have been made. I think the FAA is right when they want to be sure that all criteria are indeed met, without commercial pressure. The big word in you sentence is "if", nobody knows at this moment.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2707
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:01 am

mjoelnir wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Think you have the wrong man.

The FAA was like a rudderless ship, but with a new Captain, and a hotline to EASA, they are like the Energizer bunny.

The FAA can't just stick their fingers in their ears and hum loudly, if evidence and people keep showing up with more information, including Boeing themselves. They have to pause, ask questions, understand the implications, even if not MCAS-related.

Obviously within Boeing, there is pent up frustration with senior management. The tipping point was reached, when long-time, current and ex-Boeing staff felt strongly enough to risk employment, benefits, pensions and legal action to share their concerns. This staff process doesn't have a defined end date, though Boeing themselves could bring it swiftly to an end, by full and frank disclosure. The FAA has given the new CEO this option. Based on accredited quotes, he intends to do just that.


What does the EASA have to do with determining if Boeing meets the criteria the FAA has given them? Why not just dissolve the FAA and cede US aviation authority to the EASA if Dickson is too afraid to do anything without their blessing?


Because EASA is an independent regulator, they do not have to recertify the MAX on the FAA's say so.. And if EASA balks, many of the other regulators will follow suit. Boeing has no use of an FAA certification only, when the bulk of the market is outside the USA. So Boeing has not only to meet the criteria of the FAA.


That's all true but that isn't the FAA's concern. It's Boeing's. The FAA's job is to make sure the Max is certified for US operation.
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:39 am

keesje wrote:
Nope, EASA won’t be political, they will stick to the rules. They are not under investigations & want to keep it that way. Maybe US airlines, their ensurers, code share partners and passengers deeply love Boeing & blindly trust the FAA. Maybe not.


I assume you're serious, but it reads as a joke. I can only chuckle at the blind trust given the EASA. Until that error in mindset is gone, there won't be constructive debate in this forum because it will always dead-end right there.

mjoelnir wrote:
Because EASA is an independent regulator, they do not have to recertify the MAX on the FAA's say so.. And if EASA balks, many of the other regulators will follow suit. Boeing has no use of an FAA certification only, when the bulk of the market is outside the USA. So Boeing has not only to meet the criteria of the FAA.


Now we get it. Pressure, bullying, intimidation, etc. is okay as long as the EASA is the one administering the act. I like the nonchalant statement that the FAA is no longer the US authority--Boeing and the FAA must comply with international regulators.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2296
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:41 am

Waterbomber-
I agree that airlines (and others have MRO's) but they are maintaining aircraft with certificates issued by Boeing & FAA at time of delivery. But the 400 built but not delivered I doubt have their certificates yet. Can others do the work normally done by the manufacturer, it might need a STC as the process is different. Once out the door I would expect the MRO;s will be doing it, or Boeing will set up / arrange for / and train shops around the world.

-Jay

Waterbomber2 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Could it be that production is halted because it was realized that a trained workforce and space is needed to get 40 planes a month already built corrected, serviced and delivered. Doing the work in the parking lot may not be efficient and likely throw in certification issues like the early A380's had with the wiring. Even at 50 / mo delivered there is 8 months of built frames, so the line starts back up say 4 -5 months after the revisions are approved.


tomcat wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

That could explain certain things. Like the shutdown and why a fix has not been submitted yet.

If the fix is so extensive it needs to be done in-house, it would make perfect sense.



And let's not forget the almost 400 MAX already delivered which will need to be reworked as well. We talk of a total of about 800 aircraft to be reworked.

It's the best interest of Boeing to resume the production asap in order to limit the damages to its supply chain. I would expect Boeing to resume its production as soon as the redesigned components will be available to feed their assembly line. The rework of the already built MAX would run in parallel to that in a sort of dedicated rework line if indeed a significant rework is required.


I don't think that this is the case.
Airlines have MRO's too and doing mods is part of daily life in any MRO.
You don't need a factory building to install a bigger trim wheel.
The only way that the factory building would make sense is if you are replacing primary structures, like a wing or an empennage.

Plus assembly staff are usually highly specialised in a high rate production environment. The guys who install cockpit avionics do only that every day to maximise procedure compliance and speed.

For me, Boeing is not expecting to produce new MAX aircraft in 2020.
The reason that I can say this with confidence is that Boeing had the option to reduce the production rate to say 25 per month and instead suspended it completely.
Some say that a suspension is easier to manage but I don't see the logic in that. Boeing and suppliers can just ask their staff to take turns to take up their annual leave early in the year so that production can resume at full capacity for the remainder of the year if the suspension were to last less than 6 months.


I wonder what the Russians are going to do.This is their opportunity.
Airbus bought the Cseries from BBD, the Russians could offer Boeing the MC21.
Let Trump make the call, it's his friends anyway.
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 906
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:38 am

During the course of the grounding of the MAX... have there been any developments regarding

-weight savings,
-engine tweaks increasing fuel efficiency
-aerodynamic tweaks increasing fuel efficiency

Not only should the NEW improved MAX fly and fly safely, I am hoping Boeing has used this grounding time to engineer developments which increase efficiency or potential range, along with new techniques for reduced costs of production.

This should have been a logical, parallel, and proactive Boeing reaction to counteract any performance liabilities and penalties which may result from a safety fix that gets the MAX flying again.

Hopefully Boeing will surprise us some in 2020. However thus far, Boeing seems to be paralyzed and without definitive ideas to improve the MAX going forward.

Pilots are taught “when sht hits the fan,” over everything else, “continue flying the plane.” Meaning, don’t get distracted by neglecting basic stick and rudder airmanship, by flying into the ground when a simple 2 dollar bulb is burned out giving erroneous messages.

Boeing needs someone who is going to “fly the plane” at the top.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
StTim
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:52 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

What does the EASA have to do with determining if Boeing meets the criteria the FAA has given them? Why not just dissolve the FAA and cede US aviation authority to the EASA if Dickson is too afraid to do anything without their blessing?


Because EASA is an independent regulator, they do not have to recertify the MAX on the FAA's say so.. And if EASA balks, many of the other regulators will follow suit. Boeing has no use of an FAA certification only, when the bulk of the market is outside the USA. So Boeing has not only to meet the criteria of the FAA.


That's all true but that isn't the FAA's concern. It's Boeing's. The FAA's job is to make sure the Max is certified for US operation.

This is true but misses a key point. The world regulation process relies in the large part on everyone accepting the word of the lead regulator. The FAA is working to regain that trust. In the long term this is the best approach to Boeing, the FAA and the Airline industry.

Imagine if EASA and other regulators put a time limit on grandfathered designs. It is effectively what the FAA said it would do in 2010 - only to roll back on it when the MAX came along.

Like it or not the aerospace industry is a global one and the US cannot operate in splendid isolation.
 
cesar666cu
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 8:08 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:53 am

I’ve heard the MAX -7 and -10 are MCAS free, can’t they be certified while they fix the -8 and -9?
Give some -10 as a free upgrade for some customers who are willing to take it ?
 
Andy33
Posts: 2569
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:07 am

cesar666cu wrote:
I’ve heard the MAX -7 and -10 are MCAS free, can’t they be certified while they fix the -8 and -9?
Give some -10 as a free upgrade for some customers who are willing to take it ?


The MAX7 definitely isn't MCAS-free. Indeed since a MAX7 test frame has its full test instrumentation on board, Boeing has been using it for MCAS-related test flights during the grounding, as this is easier than fitting instrumentation to a MAX8 or MAX9, which had already gone beyond the test frame stage.
The MAX10 is yet to be certified at all, and various posts here have said it does use MCAS and others have said it doesn't. I've not seen any convincing evidence either way. The problem in getting it certified at all is that the regulatory authorities will be all over it checking for everything. Since the main difference between the 10 and the 9 is length and the retractable gear used only in take-off and landing, you'd think it would be easy, except that the regulators no longer trusts anything Boeing tell them, for good reason.
 
lowbank
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:10 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:54 am

hivue wrote:
lowbank wrote:
The FAA don’t need to tell anyone when the standard may be passed


If that's actually the case then I can foresee a Q4 2020 thread for this discussion. Or are you saying that we're going to wake up one morning and they're going to surprise us and announce that the MAX has passed all the requirements and is now ready for revenue service?



In my limited experience with the authorities. It kinda went along these lines.
Design designed a test to show we met certification requirements.
I did the planning, got the test assembled.
CAA came and witnessed the certification test.
Unofficially verbally agreed test was passed.
I then had to supply evidence of the plans, materials used etc for the CAA report.
Once I had supplied all data that the test replicated the actual aircraft assembly and the officer wrote his report.

Only when the report is signed and released do you actually know you have been successful.

It’s a complex process, that can be side tracked by unusual issues.
Every days a school day.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 14110
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:13 am

MSPNWA wrote:
keesje wrote:
Nope, EASA won’t be political, they will stick to the rules. They are not under investigations & want to keep it that way. Maybe US airlines, their ensurers, code share partners and passengers deeply love Boeing & blindly trust the FAA. Maybe not.


I assume you're serious, but it reads as a joke. I can only chuckle at the blind trust given the EASA. Until that error in mindset is gone, there won't be constructive debate in this forum because it will always dead-end right there.

mjoelnir wrote:
Because EASA is an independent regulator, they do not have to recertify the MAX on the FAA's say so.. And if EASA balks, many of the other regulators will follow suit. Boeing has no use of an FAA certification only, when the bulk of the market is outside the USA. So Boeing has not only to meet the criteria of the FAA.


Now we get it. Pressure, bullying, intimidation, etc. is okay as long as the EASA is the one administering the act. I like the nonchalant statement that the FAA is no longer the US authority--Boeing and the FAA must comply with international regulators.


I think we have been watching a situation were the FAA wasn't independent, was outsources to Boeing, changed the requirements so the 737 MAX could meet them and accepted far reaching grandfathering of design and requirements while they killed it a decade before.

Assuming the EASA acts the same must be based on observations too. Are they there? I know EASA as a composed group of very international bureaucrats, not pushed around, reauthorized with demands, degrading requirements so old Airbus design complies.

I remember FAA publicly standing shoulder to shoulder with Boeing and DoT declaring the 787 was absolutely safe, to be grounded the next monday by the Japanese. I was flabbergasted then already.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:55 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
During the course of the grounding of the MAX... have there been any developments regarding

-weight savings,
-engine tweaks increasing fuel efficiency
-aerodynamic tweaks increasing fuel efficiency

Not only should the NEW improved MAX fly and fly safely, I am hoping Boeing has used this grounding time to engineer developments which increase efficiency or potential range, along with new techniques for reduced costs of production.

This should have been a logical, parallel, and proactive Boeing reaction to counteract any performance liabilities and penalties which may result from a safety fix that gets the MAX flying again.

Hopefully Boeing will surprise us some in 2020. However thus far, Boeing seems to be paralyzed and without definitive ideas to improve the MAX going forward.

Pilots are taught “when sht hits the fan,” over everything else, “continue flying the plane.” Meaning, don’t get distracted by neglecting basic stick and rudder airmanship, by flying into the ground when a simple 2 dollar bulb is burned out giving erroneous messages.

Boeing needs someone who is going to “fly the plane” at the top.


IMO if the exemptions from the rules, Boeing is dependent on in regards to the 737MAX, were retracted, the frames would get quite a bit heavier. Meeting the 16 g requirement would mean beefing up the structure, especially in regards to the cabin floor. If Boeing needs to do some aerodynamic work and is getting rid of MCAS. I would expect increased drag and increased fuel burn.
I do not expect a lighter more thrifty 737 in the next years.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:14 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
keesje wrote:
Nope, EASA won’t be political, they will stick to the rules. They are not under investigations & want to keep it that way. Maybe US airlines, their ensurers, code share partners and passengers deeply love Boeing & blindly trust the FAA. Maybe not.


I assume you're serious, but it reads as a joke. I can only chuckle at the blind trust given the EASA. Until that error in mindset is gone, there won't be constructive debate in this forum because it will always dead-end right there.


You can chuckle all you want. The political driven agenda is rather found in the FAA.

MSPNWA wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Because EASA is an independent regulator, they do not have to recertify the MAX on the FAA's say so.. And if EASA balks, many of the other regulators will follow suit. Boeing has no use of an FAA certification only, when the bulk of the market is outside the USA. So Boeing has not only to meet the criteria of the FAA.


Now we get it. Pressure, bullying, intimidation, etc. is okay as long as the EASA is the one administering the act. I like the nonchalant statement that the FAA is no longer the US authority--Boeing and the FAA must comply with international regulators.


Yes, as long as the FAA was the premier regulatory entity, other regulators accepted their judgement. But when the FAA certified a death trap, blindly caving to Boeings demands, the hard won reputation went right out of the window.
The FAA has not to follow and accept the judgement of the other international regulators, but if Boeing wants the MAX to be used outside the borders of the USA, they better do.
 
User avatar
PW100
Posts: 4123
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:36 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

What does the EASA have to do with determining if Boeing meets the criteria the FAA has given them? Why not just dissolve the FAA and cede US aviation authority to the EASA if Dickson is too afraid to do anything without their blessing?


Because EASA is an independent regulator, they do not have to recertify the MAX on the FAA's say so.. And if EASA balks, many of the other regulators will follow suit. Boeing has no use of an FAA certification only, when the bulk of the market is outside the USA. So Boeing has not only to meet the criteria of the FAA.


That's all true but that isn't the FAA's concern. It's Boeing's. The FAA's job is to make sure the Max is certified for US operation.


What is is that would make it suitable for US operation, but not suitable for "outside US-operation"?

Don't tell . . . . let me think, . . . . worlds best pilots. That must be it!

The FAA is/was supposed to be the best Civil Avition Authority on the world when it comes to setting standards for aviation safety. It appears that ship has sailed now. Perhaps some want it to return to harbour, but cutting corners on Max RtS will not help.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 24822
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:01 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Revelation wrote:
And yet many media outlets report that Dickson is going to wait for the global approval and no one is calling him out for it. Boeing isn't exactly in a position where they can make demands.

Do you honestly expect the media to call out the FAA - a government entity - like they do big corporations?

All the major outlets (ST, NYT, WaPo, Bloomberg, Reuters) covering this story have called out the FAA in the past. None have raised this global approval standard as a problem.

MSPNWA wrote:
Boeing (and the public) can and should make demands if the regulator is not acting according to their authority and mission. Requiring the world to sign off first and relinquishing their sole authority to worldwide regulators would be one of those reasons.

These days the public is more concerned about safety and less concerned about FAA's mission and authority. Feel free to review the Congressional Hearings to get a sense of what is on the mind of the people's representatives in government.

MSPNWA wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Boeing's strategy was to use power (some say bullying) to drive a quick RTS. I think its very likely that Boeing is stepping back from that strategy.

Rev, I respect your posts, but you're using the same assumption that many are in this thread. And that assumption is that all of the sudden the FAA is infallible and is doing everything right. Subsequently any problem/setback/missed deadline lies at the feet of Boeing alone. Not only is that an assumption presented as fact, it's not logical since the only "evidence" that could support it is the appearance that they are now "acting tough" on Boeing, which isn't real evidence at all. What happened to the FAA checklist that Boeing had to meet? What happened to telling us where the MAX is falling short? What happened to this being just about MCAS that the FAA said was fixed months ago?

Thanks for the compliment. I think you're doing a great job of explaining your point of view.

It's my understanding that FAA managers delegated responsibility for MCAS to Boeing due to pressure from Boeing, over the objections of its own staff. FAA had its role in the tragedy, but the bulk of the tragedy is due to Boeing's actions. They asked for responsibility for the MCAS design be delegated to them then they did a terrible job on the design itself and on determining its impact on the safety of the aircraft as a whole. Their initial response to the fact that they did not provide details of MCAS to FAA was to say they did not have to explain the details of MCAS to the FAA because they were the designated authority, and it's true. With the authority comes the responsibility.

MSPNWA wrote:
When you take the totality of the evidence so far, I believe we should be looking at the FAA as the primary reason for the degradation of the situation. It appears their demands are not set in the objective words of regulations and instead may reside in the nebulous minds of a largely unaccountable government agency. In the end it comes down to who you trust more (or distrust less). Am I hanging my hat on the entity that has become less transparent as this drags along? Do I stand behind the entity that appears to be moving the goalposts? Do I trust the entity that is admittedly ceding its authority? Do I trust the entity that is largely unaccountable to the public? Do I believe the entity's leader that has an obvious potential for bias against the other entity? I feel like it takes a fair amount of blind trust to say 'yes' to any of those questions.

Looking at the degradation of the situation is not the same as looking at the totality of the situation. If you look at the totality of the situation, IMO the situation was caused far more by Boeing's actions rather than FAA's lack of actions.

We really don't know what was going on with the Boeing-FAA relationship before Dickson because Ewell did not give us the insights Dickson has. The main news since Dickson taking over is Boeing firing its CEO because of his shortcomings with regard to communication, followed by news of Boeing turning over more documents and texts to DoJ and FAA. It's problematic to suggest it is FAA that is lacking transparency when Boeing keeps having to admit they have not turned over important information to FAA.

I'm not sure the situation has degraded or the time lines have shifted. We have been given a lot of info around the time line and the process from Boeing itself, and it's natural that such info would be presented in an optimistic way. For all we know FAA was never in agreement on the timeline and never agreed to things such as a US-first RTS. The NYT piece on Muilenberg's resignation makes it clear that Boeing was floating a lot of trial balloons via the press such as being able to deliver planes without official ungrounding by end of year, and these ideas did not have FAA approval.

I understand the request for transparency from FAA but it's hard to expect them to lay down a time line without them having all the info they've requested and without them knowing what is in such documents. I suspect if they did come up with such a time line for public release they would have to pad it out for the worst case scenario and they would be spending most of their time arguing about the time line and not on addressing the info submitted by Boeing.

In the end there is no Federal Aviation Regulation written by Congress saying Boeing must review document X in Y days because no one knows what they will find in document X till they read it.

TTailedTiger wrote:
What does the EASA have to do with determining if Boeing meets the criteria the FAA has given them? Why not just dissolve the FAA and cede US aviation authority to the EASA if Dickson is too afraid to do anything without their blessing?

It seems obvious to me from recent events ( production line halting, CEO "resigned", corporate legal adviser retiring ) that the power politics approach of the last 9 months or so didn't work and a new direction is being taken. FAA has no legal mandate to evaluate Boeing submissions in a given time period for reasons I think should be obvious. If Dickson just took Boeing documents at face value we could just as easily say Dickson is too afraid of Boeing to evaluate them properly, so I think I'd drop the fear angle.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
9Patch
Posts: 623
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:12 pm

PW100 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

Because EASA is an independent regulator, they do not have to recertify the MAX on the FAA's say so.. And if EASA balks, many of the other regulators will follow suit. Boeing has no use of an FAA certification only, when the bulk of the market is outside the USA. So Boeing has not only to meet the criteria of the FAA.


That's all true but that isn't the FAA's concern. It's Boeing's. The FAA's job is to make sure the Max is certified for US operation.


What is is that would make it suitable for US operation, but not suitable for "outside US-operation"?

Don't tell . . . . let me think, . . . . worlds best pilots. That must be it!

The FAA is/was supposed to be the best Civil Avition Authority on the world when it comes to setting standards for aviation safety. It appears that ship has sailed now. Perhaps some want it to return to harbour, but cutting corners on Max RtS will not help.


The FAA delegated certification to Boeing and then simply rubber stamped their work. Then it appears the EASA and other regulators (TCCP, CAAC, etc.) rubber stamped the FAA's work.

It looks like a lot of people missed that sailing.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2707
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:37 pm

I give up. No one seems to want to answer my question of why the US would allow other nations to determine whether a US product can fly in US airspace.

As for Boeing. If I were in a leadership position I'd give the FAA whatever they asked for and not say anythinf else to them. Just leave them be. Then I would hold daily livestreams that the public can watch and ask questions online. Demonstrate the updates to the Max and explain exactly how things work. They can even so them in real time on test flights.
 
pune
Posts: 404
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:47 pm

Kilopond wrote:
Agrajag wrote:
[...]That is a very good point well made. Im sure i read somewhere that the A320 neo series was just 'catching up'.


:D And after Boeing had made themselves the laughing stock by such a ridiculous claim Airbus shot back and depicted the MAX with Pinocchio`s nose:

Image


Although perhaps already answered, while I can understand about the A320, why are they talking about A380. From what is known, the A380 production has closed down because it's simply too big, too tall and needs too many passengers to make it all work. While I would love to experience the A380 someday don't think it will be anytime soon.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:47 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
I give up. No one seems to want to answer my question of why the US would allow other nations to determine whether a US product can fly in US airspace.

As for Boeing. If I were in a leadership position I'd give the FAA whatever they asked for and not say anythinf else to them. Just leave them be. Then I would hold daily livestreams that the public can watch and ask questions online. Demonstrate the updates to the Max and explain exactly how things work. They can even so them in real time on test flights.


Do you want a certification by the FAA, that leads to the 737MAX being only able to operate in USA, while it is known that other regulators will not certify, because their concerns are not headed? What use would that be to anybody?
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 744
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:49 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
I give up. No one seems to want to answer my question of why the US would allow other nations to determine whether a US product can fly in US airspace.

As for Boeing. If I were in a leadership position I'd give the FAA whatever they asked for and not say anythinf else to them. Just leave them be. Then I would hold daily livestreams that the public can watch and ask questions online. Demonstrate the updates to the Max and explain exactly how things work. They can even so them in real time on test flights.



My guess: A global ungrounding is faster than one where FAA ungrounds alone first. So as the market for Boeing is mostly outside the US the FAA does Boeing a huge favor here. The US market is really small for Boeing compared to RoW so whatever gets it globally in the air the fastest is the way the FAA will go to prevent massive damage to Boeing.
 
shmerik
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 2:28 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:12 pm

Revelation wrote:

I'm not sure the situation has degraded or the time lines have shifted. We have been given a lot of info around the time line and the process from Boeing itself, and it's natural that such info would be presented in an optimistic way. For all we know FAA was never in agreement on the timeline and never agreed to things such as a US-first RTS. The NYT piece on Muilenberg's resignation makes it clear that Boeing was floating a lot of trial balloons via the press such as being able to deliver planes without official ungrounding by end of year, and these ideas did not have FAA approval.

I understand the request for transparency from FAA but it's hard to expect them to lay down a time line without them having all the info they've requested and without them knowing what is in such documents. I suspect if they did come up with such a time line for public release they would have to pad it out for the worst case scenario and they would be spending most of their time arguing about the time line and not on addressing the info submitted by Boeing.

In the end there is no Federal Aviation Regulation written by Congress saying Boeing must review document X in Y days because no one knows what they will find in document X till they read it.

TTailedTiger wrote:
What does the EASA have to do with determining if Boeing meets the criteria the FAA has given them? Why not just dissolve the FAA and cede US aviation authority to the EASA if Dickson is too afraid to do anything without their blessing?

It seems obvious to me from recent events ( production line halting, CEO "resigned", corporate legal adviser retiring ) that the power politics approach of the last 9 months or so didn't work and a new direction is being taken. FAA has no legal mandate to evaluate Boeing submissions in a given time period for reasons I think should be obvious. If Dickson just took Boeing documents at face value we could just as easily say Dickson is too afraid of Boeing to evaluate them properly, so I think I'd drop the fear angle.


Exactly, Boeing has been vocal about what we now see were unrealistic timelines all year and now that the strategy has reached a breaking point some people are trying to blame the FAA for not being clear about time until RTS.

The nature of testing and certification itself doesn't really lend itself to clean timelines since the entire point is to be sure that nothing that doesn't meet certifications has been missed, and generally designs and systems aren't perfect until a few rounds of back and forth. If the FAA were to release a date by which they expect to be finished that's realistic they would probably have to add an enormous amount of padding to account for issues that come up that weren't apparent at the outset. Sure at some point they could outline the remaining steps to be taken but any dates would be very approximate and if they didn't pad it sufficiently it would just be more unnecessary missed deadlines.

Currently I don't think anyone outside of the process has a good clue about when we will see the return of the MAX. Ky gave his most recent statement about Feb/March but then in the days afterward Boeing release a fresh batch of concerning internal communications and changed CEOs along with the lead lawyer planning to leave by the years-end. There's a lot happening and not a lot of info being release to the public but I bet we will have more news as people get back to work afters New Year's.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos