TObound
Posts: 611
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:45 pm

KingOrGod wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
TObound wrote:

That would be a solution. But it would mean recurring training cost. And this what Boeing and their customers don't want. Remember the MAX was sold as easily trainable for NG crews. An afternoon with an iPad. If they have to actually do SIM training or flying, even if it's a few days, this changes the cost of inducting that fleet.

I agree that this is what Boeing should be compelled to do, if they don't want to pay for and engineer an aero fix.

Pay more attention. Boeing isn't resisting that idea at all and would rather the fleet get off the ground ASAP. The problem is the FAA will not actually commit to a path forward, which everyone here should have guessed the moment the EASA wanted dual certification for the 777X. The problem with the RTS isn't Boeing. That's plainly obvious based on who IS communicating openly with the public and who isn't.


And Boeing isn't exactly the epitome of open and honest - we wouldn't be talking here about this if it wasn't the case. I don't blame EASA wanting dual certification based on what BCA and FAA have achieved thus far crater-wise. Got nothing to do with arrogance, it has more to do with combined plain incompetence of those two instutions.


Yep. "I know we killed a few hundred people the first time. But you should trust us again. We got it right this time. Pinky swear!"

I get that bilateral agreements for certification are a thing. But this whole incident has really shown the value of regulatory authorities doing independent certifications on major civilian programs. It's getting to be challenging trusting the FAA with Boeing, EASA with Airbus and TC with Bombardier. Too much of that dual mission of regulating the OEMs and promoting their industry at the same time. I
 
2175301
Posts: 1613
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:53 pm

Here are my thoughts and opinion on the situation:

1) MCAS was likely fixed and ready to implement in the summer. If implemented aircraft would have returned to service likely no later than the end of August.

2) The bit flip "issue" was well below the required frequency of possibility to have to be addressed; but, addressing it solved some "political" issues at the time and showed that both Boeing and FAA were "serious" about safety.

3) By International Treaty (and I have read the treaty with EASA - and have been told that the one with Canada and Brazil are essentially identical) - it is specifically spelled out in the Treaty that if there are major concerns with certification or other issues that a joint panel from the regulators from Brazil, Canada, Europe, and the United States will form to provide advice on how to proceed.

It is quite clear that this international panel was formed in this case. My understanding is that China has been granted "Observer" status (which is why they may know the details on what is going on). They likely can comment as they feel appropriate as well.

4) Within the last month a decision was made to change RTS from US First, then address the other regulators; to a mostly joint approval. In my opinion that is why this has slipped from a December RTS to next year, and from the 5 items announced in November to the 10 or 11 recently announced. The foreign regulators are now inputting their requirements.

I suspect that this is also going to be the future model of how commercial aircraft certification is done for aircraft produced in Brazil, Canada, Europe, and the USA.

5) Overall, its the regulators moving the goal post - and changing things that Boeing has to do. Boeing is not in charge, and the FAA has agreed to work with the international regulator panel. Much of the new requirements actually do not relate specifically to MCAS. Revising the software for the 2 computers and how they work has opened up many things for review and challenge. As such, most of the new delays may have nothing actually to do with MCAS.

I have heard from my source that while he cannot talk about any specifics (other than saying that technically there was no "regulatory requirement" to address the computer structure) , that there is now a lot more work involved with certification than there ever was in the past, and if this level of detail is required for the 777X or any other revision or new aircraft that it will significantly impact certification time/workload.

In conclusion: The delays past August are in fact largely political in nature. There was never a need to address the computer structure as part of the fix; which has created a lot more delay and work - and now a lot more questions about how the computers and their software work (outside of MCAS). Per the Treaty, the FAA could have just said we are fixing the MCAS for RTS, and we can address other desired improvements later (as an upgrade). It's political considerations that prevented that, not technical or regulatory ones.

The one positive I have seen that suggest a relatively early 2020 RTS is that the Minimum Equipment List was published for Comment (due early January). That indicates to me that the international bodies are on board with both the hardware and software itself. My impression is that documentation and training are up in the air.

Also, while both Boeing and the FAA could have done better than they did. In fact I personally believe a large amount of responsibility rest with Congress in their changes of what Boeing and the FAA were allowed to do, which includes proper funding of the FAA and relief from standard government pay scales for certain positions to be able to have qualified personnel (a few other departments in the USA have such relief granted).

Have a great day,
 
patrickjp93
Posts: 648
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:00 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:59 pm

2175301 wrote:
Here are my thoughts and opinion on the situation:

In conclusion: The delays past August are in fact largely political in nature. There was never a need to address the computer structure as part of the fix; which has created a lot more delay and work - and now a lot more questions about how the computers and their software work (outside of MCAS). Per the Treaty, the FAA could have just said we are fixing the MCAS for RTS, and we can address other desired improvements later (as an upgrade). It's political considerations that prevented that, not technical or regulatory ones.

The one positive I have seen that suggest a relatively early 2020 RTS is that the Minimum Equipment List was published for Comment (due early January). That indicates to me that the international bodies are on board with both the hardware and software itself. My impression is that documentation and training are up in the air.



Agreeing in principle with your first five points.

I wouldn't bet on that last part.
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:24 pm

2175301 wrote:
Here are my thoughts and opinion on the situation:

1) MCAS was likely fixed and ready to implement in the summer. If implemented aircraft would have returned to service likely no later than the end of August.

2) The bit flip "issue" was well below the required frequency of possibility to have to be addressed; but, addressing it solved some "political" issues at the time and showed that both Boeing and FAA were "serious" about safety.

3) By International Treaty (and I have read the treaty with EASA - and have been told that the one with Canada and Brazil are essentially identical) - it is specifically spelled out in the Treaty that if there are major concerns with certification or other issues that a joint panel from the regulators from Brazil, Canada, Europe, and the United States will form to provide advice on how to proceed.

It is quite clear that this international panel was formed in this case. My understanding is that China has been granted "Observer" status (which is why they may know the details on what is going on). They likely can comment as they feel appropriate as well.

4) Within the last month a decision was made to change RTS from US First, then address the other regulators; to a mostly joint approval. In my opinion that is why this has slipped from a December RTS to next year, and from the 5 items announced in November to the 10 or 11 recently announced. The foreign regulators are now inputting their requirements.

I suspect that this is also going to be the future model of how commercial aircraft certification is done for aircraft produced in Brazil, Canada, Europe, and the USA.

5) Overall, its the regulators moving the goal post - and changing things that Boeing has to do. Boeing is not in charge, and the FAA has agreed to work with the international regulator panel. Much of the new requirements actually do not relate specifically to MCAS. Revising the software for the 2 computers and how they work has opened up many things for review and challenge. As such, most of the new delays may have nothing actually to do with MCAS.

I have heard from my source that while he cannot talk about any specifics (other than saying that technically there was no "regulatory requirement" to address the computer structure) , that there is now a lot more work involved with certification than there ever was in the past, and if this level of detail is required for the 777X or any other revision or new aircraft that it will significantly impact certification time/workload.

In conclusion: The delays past August are in fact largely political in nature. There was never a need to address the computer structure as part of the fix; which has created a lot more delay and work - and now a lot more questions about how the computers and their software work (outside of MCAS). Per the Treaty, the FAA could have just said we are fixing the MCAS for RTS, and we can address other desired improvements later (as an upgrade). It's political considerations that prevented that, not technical or regulatory ones.

The one positive I have seen that suggest a relatively early 2020 RTS is that the Minimum Equipment List was published for Comment (due early January). That indicates to me that the international bodies are on board with both the hardware and software itself. My impression is that documentation and training are up in the air.

Also, while both Boeing and the FAA could have done better than they did. In fact I personally believe a large amount of responsibility rest with Congress in their changes of what Boeing and the FAA were allowed to do, which includes proper funding of the FAA and relief from standard government pay scales for certain positions to be able to have qualified personnel (a few other departments in the USA have such relief granted).

Have a great day,


Great post. The thing is, you can do everything right (on the technical side) and still have a crash. The problem with the MAX is that it has highlighted major issues with the FAA, and to a lesser extent the broader global regulatory system for aviation. Major incidents and exposure will drive institutional change. Unfortunately for Boeing, that's what is happening now and they are caught up in the scrutiny that the regulators are facing. I think the impact from the MAX will eventually be akin to how the 2006 Nimrod crash forced major changes in oversight for UK military aviation. At least, I would hope so.....
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:37 pm

TObound wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
If airbus were held to this standard the A330 would have been grounded at minimum 3 times


And maybe it should have.

patrickjp93 wrote:
I certify software far more complicated than avionics, stuff responsible for billions of dollars in transactions ever couple of milliseconds.
The thing is, the requirements are concrete, crystal clear, and the public does not and SHOULD NOT have a single say in it because this very forum proves exactly how emotionally ridiculous the layman public is when it comes to problems. You want perfection? Go rip God out of the cosmos and have him do your work for you.


The public tends to take a dimmer view on products that kill people than cost a few dollars.

I'm involved in certifying aircraft fleets on the military side. I'm not "emotional" about the topic being discussed. Give me any fleet with two similar crash profiles and I'd ground them or severely ops restrict at least until we have preliminary evidence. And then severely ops restrict till they had a fix. Unfortunately for the airlines, you can't ops restrict in commercial aviation.

Lastly, nobody here is looking for "perfection". They are looking for the airplane to meet existing standards. If you find in the course of an accident investigation, there's reason to believe there's a design flaw, you don't let that fleet keep flying. That would be allowing a deviation from compliance to those standards.


A few dollars? A mistake in the software I make has in two instances cost a company over 700 million USD in a single hour and cost over 250 million after the mistaken transactions that COULD be rolled back had been. Stock Exchanges require much higher precision at much lower latency at much higher input load than any airplane yet built or likely to ever be built.

Suspicion is not proof, and far more often than not even in military history, jumping the gun has cost far more lives than waiting out the noise of operational mistakes. Tsun Tsu died by being impatient.
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:48 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
A few dollars? A mistake in the software I make has in two instances cost a company over 700 million USD in a single hour and cost over 250 million after the mistaken transactions that COULD be rolled back had been. Stock Exchanges require much higher precision at much lower latency at much higher input load than any airplane yet built or likely to ever be built.


The guy who ultimately signed off on MCAS implementation on the MAX could cost Boeing an order of magnitude more than your example here when all is said and done. And several hundred of lives.

patrickjp93 wrote:
Suspicion is not proof, and far more often than not even in military history, jumping the gun has cost far more lives than waiting out the noise of operational mistakes. Tsun Tsu died by being impatient.


I fully agree that impatience can get you killed. Which is why precautionary groundings are great. Gives regulators lots of time to figure the problem out, test it and properly certify it.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:01 am

TObound wrote:
morrisond wrote:
TObound wrote:

Essentially what that leaked email from the Transport Canada certified was suggesting no?

A lot of the delay can basically come down to one thing: avoiding additional training. They are all chasing their tails trying to avoid this outcome. I wish Boeing would eat the cost, get the MAX back to service and immediately launch FSA.


Yet if other Jurisdictions adopt the FAA stall training requirements from 2015 that must be completed by I think sometime next year it's not additional training. It's just taking Worldwide standards up to US levels (if they have not already done so). Assuming that the MAX stalls somewhat normally - remove MCAS and have any Pilot who flies the MAX complete the training before flying it with paying passengers.

The document outlines doing it in SIMS or also actual airplanes (of course without Passengers). I'm sure there are a few MAX's around that Boeing could dedicate to this.

This reg seems to have resulted from the findings of most of the fatal accidents in the past 10 years.

From the Document: https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/med ... 0-109A.pdf

1-1. GENERAL. Based on accident review, a concern exists within the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) and industry regarding loss of control in-flight (LOC-I) accidents and
incidents. A recurring causal factor in LOC-I accidents and incidents is the pilot’s inappropriate
reaction to impending stalls and full stalls. Evidence exists that some pilots are failing to avoid
conditions that may lead to a stall, or are failing to recognize the insidious onset of an impending
stall during routine operations in both manual and automatic flight. Evidence also exists that
some pilots may not have the required skills or training to respond appropriately to an
unexpected stall. Stall training should always emphasize reduction of angle of attack (AOA) as
the most important response when confronted with an impending or full stall. This advisory
circular (AC) provides best practices on training, testing, and checking of impending stalls and
training of full stalls, including recommended recovery procedures.

c. Envelope-Protected Airplanes. Envelope-protected airplanes have, in general,
demonstrated a lower rate of stall accidents and incidents; however, the rate is not zero. Stall
accidents and incidents in envelope-protected airplanes typically occur when the protections
have failed, requiring the pilot to return the aircraft to safe flight using a degraded flight control
mode. As such, it is important to carefully develop the stall prevention and recovery training for
envelope-protected aircraft so that (1) the failure path(s) to reach the degraded modes are
understood, (2) pilots learn to identify the rarely occurring impending or full stalls, and (3) pilots
demonstrate they have the skill to return the aircraft to safe flight with the degraded flight control
laws. Although the potential failures that lead to degraded modes must be understood by pilots,
handling multiple failures should not be a component of maneuver-based stall training. The
simulator should be placed in a degraded mode by the instructor, clearing all warnings and
cautions associated with the failures before the stall training begins. Training providers should
seek manufacture guidance for preferred methods of placing the simulator in degraded modes.

If all pilots had the training outlined in the document and assuming that the MAX is somewhat benign - would that not be a reasonable solution? Just remove MCAS and do more training?


That would be a solution. But it would mean recurring training cost. And this what Boeing and their customers don't want. Remember the MAX was sold as easily trainable for NG crews. An afternoon with an iPad. If they have to actually do SIM training or flying, even if it's a few days, this changes the cost of inducting that fleet.

I agree that this is what Boeing should be compelled to do, if they don't want to pay for and engineer an aero fix.


But it already is a recurring training cost in the US. That is my point. US operators have to follow these regs. The rest of the world just has to follow.

Maybe they are the ones resisting as their airlines don't want the recurring training cost and not Boeing. Let us also not forget that these regs were mainly a result of what was learned from an A330 crash - AF447.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:25 am

PW100 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Yet if other Jurisdictions adopt the FAA stall training requirements from 2015 that must be completed by I think sometime next year it's not additional training. It's just taking Worldwide standards up to US levels (if they have not already done so). *Assuming* that the MAX stalls somewhat normally - remove MCAS and have any Pilot who flies the MAX complete the training before flying it with paying passengers.

. . . .

If all pilots had the training outlined in the document and assuming that the MAX is somewhat benign - would that not be a reasonable solution? Just remove MCAS and do more training?


That assumption (that the MAX stalls somewhat normally) seems to be rather iffy. And becoming more iffy by the day . . .

I agree that improved training would probably reduce some of the vulnerability of the MCAS envelope. Unfortunately, in all your posts you seem to eliminate the crucial point: any such training is type specific: MAX. It is not a world-wide pilot standard thing. It is/was a MAX thing.

For some reason Boeing doesn't seem to want to go into that direction of additoonal type-specific training (including sim sessions). I can't believe anymore that that is for cost reasons, as grounding- and associated costs are going up faster and more persistent than MCAS 1.0 could point a nose down. That itself suggests that the problem would be more fundamental, in that the unaugmented stall characteristics not so normal (for a commercial airliner) and are perhaps too difficult to release into the modern airline world.


We have no information about the MAX stall characteristics. Just because nobody is releasing information to the public doesn't mean there is some hidden issue.

The cost of training is huge. If the reported $1 million per MAX to Southwest is true and that had to be extended to all customers, you're talking over $5 billion on top of the cost they've already incurred (assuming over 5,000 units delivered). A couple of extra months grounded and racking up compensation isn't going to be close to that so avoiding training is logically a huge motivation for Boeing.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:40 am

TObound wrote:
kalvado wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
And no, with only 2 crashes you can't reliably make that calculation.

Problem is that you need to act based on data on hand. So crash history is not interpreted as random independent tests; underlying mechanisms are analyzed and conclusions are made based on much more detailed information than random tests would allow.
ANd based on those mechanisms - MAX has some serious issues, making it unsafe. No need to invoke statistics 101.


I've taken flight safety courses and done certification work. The kind of logic and bias he's shown would absolutely not be allowed. It's terrifying to think he's actually an engineer and signing off on work somewhere.

I can't believe, "Let's just wait till we kill another 150 pax." is supposed to be a serious suggestion on an aviation forum.

I wish people who made such suggestions told me where they worked. I'd like to maintain a wide radius near anything they've touched.


Where did the "And no, with only 2 crashes you can't reliably make that calculation" quote come from? I've gone back 20 pages and I cannot find the original post. I would very much like to read it in context before making any reply. Thanks.
 
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767333ER
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:55 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:

No, you do not need to act on the data at hand when there are serious gaps in that data just because you're afraid of possibilities. That has led to ruin in so many projects in every industry it would make your head spin. Be patient, gather more data, and be watchful.

You cannot ever know everything you need to in order to make an informed decision, but by the math the Boeing 737 MAX grounding was rushed, so if public sentiment is that it wasn't rushed, then by the math there are many historical examples I can point to which they either have to accept to be consistent themselves, or change their outlook on to be consistent.

And yes, you need to invoke statistics 101, because just as a basement dwelling mathematician poked numerous holes in the U.N.'s climate change committee studies, any capable statistician should be able to interrogate anything published by the FAA, EASA, Boeing, or Airbus and be able to validate or debunk it. That is the process of peer review. I'm perfectly capable of understanding most of the mathematics in the FAA's report, and some of it is shoddy work or doesn't lay out assumptions for baseline variables with justification for those assumptions.

These people are not demigods. Their work is not infallible. You're not an idiot, and neither am I.

Once again: MAX was grounded not after the second crash - it was grounded after common cause of 2 crashes was proven.


Not true. The ET602 crash report is still pending. Everyone has simply picked their camp already.

A report on a crash comes out a year after the crash. That does not mean the cause of the crash is unknown for a year. Usually the cause is found and confirmed right away. Something shouldn’t be discounted just because the final report is still 3 months out despite the cause being proven already. This isn’t a game with rules you made up; this is reality with something that really happened. Saying that it doesn’t count until the final report is released is basically the equivalent of “I’m right and you’re wrong cause I said so”.It’s essentially a childish notion.

If we must wait for the final report to be published for anything to be proven as fact why did why was an AD imposed on the MAX for MCAS, why did Boeing release an Ops Bulletin for the MAX, why did Boeing start working on a fix for MCAS, and why did we know what MCAS was shortly after the Lion Air crash? We’ve been having this discussion for months and the report for that crash just recently was published yet we all knew basically what it would cover far before.

As for the idea of peer review, a peer has to be qualified in said subject. I do not believe you are qualified. You cannot provide one real fact/figure or any real math to back up what you are saying and all you can do is basically say that the MAX was grounded prematurely rather than having it kill more people before sufficient cause would be found to ground it all while comparing it to past military mistakes (faulty analogy).

I agree everyone has picked their camp at this point. You have picked the camp of fallacy, arbitrary statements, and alternative facts.

I’m starting to wonder if the pro-Boeing chest thumpers on here are all the same person of same few people.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T PA-28-180

2 ears for spatial hearing, 2 eyes for depth perception, 2 ears for balance... How did Boeing think 1 sensor was good enough?!
 
Nick1209
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:32 am

Dude it’s 2019, about to be 2020. Prelims are already starting to show the full picture. And that goes for both accidents in this case as well. That info isn’t going to get washed away, it’ll only become more clear.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:12 am

I hate to be pessimistic but the MAX is certainly going to grounded for a year since the ET crash. Maybe, it will get FAA approval sometime in the middle of Q1 but it's looking more like Q2 or maybe Q3 and then you have all those planes to roll out. I have no idea why BA stock is holding up so well. I note is was down about 1% today in an up market.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:15 am

MrBretz wrote:
I hate to be pessimistic but the MAX is certainly going to grounded for a year since the ET crash. Maybe, it will get FAA approval sometime in the middle of Q1 but it's looking more like Q2 or maybe Q3 and then you have all those planes to roll out. I have no idea why BA stock is holding up so well. I note is was down about 1% today in an up market.


The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:06 am

https://transportation.house.gov/imo/me ... timony.pdf
This weeks testimony from -Mica R. Endsley, PhD – Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, may well have slipped under the radar a little. She captures the events and NTSB and JATR reports pretty well and relates these directly to the human factors principles.

Well worth the read, but you will need to set aside a half hour or so.

Ray
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:11 am

Interested wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I hate to be pessimistic but the MAX is certainly going to grounded for a year since the ET crash. Maybe, it will get FAA approval sometime in the middle of Q1 but it's looking more like Q2 or maybe Q3 and then you have all those planes to roll out. I have no idea why BA stock is holding up so well. I note is was down about 1% today in an up market.


The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.


They suspended stock buybacks in April (or earlier but that's when it was reported in an article about financial results).

The stock is down 18% since the ET crash while the DJIA is up 10.5% in the same period (and BA is part of the DJIA so it is held down by BA somewhat). Just using this simple analysis, BA is underperforming the market by 28.5% since the ET crash. I'd hardly say that shares are carrying on like nothing happened.

Boeing's annual revenue is over $90 Billion. If you figure a 737 sells for $70 million, eliminating all 737 sales still leaves them with over $50 Billion in revenue. If they shut down the 737 program, it would also eliminate the costs of producing them.

So, while it obviously isn't good for Boeing to have this situation, they aren't on the brink of bankruptcy because of it. Even under the worst case where they have to scrap the MAX, practically give away NGs to keep airlines from not having enough aircraft and go all in on a replacement, the overall financial performance should not lead to that much more of a drop in share price. Maybe another 10%-15%.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:53 am

par13del wrote:
morrisond wrote:
sharpley wrote:
Which year?


Boeing was pretty specific about RTS - sometime in 2020

So did we also see a statement where Boeing has now been granted RTS authority by the FAA?
Why are we so hung up on what Boeing say's, why are we not going by what the head of the regulatory authority - FAA - says?


I was being sarcastic. It's the new "By the end of the Year"
 
TObound
Posts: 611
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:57 am

Virtual737 wrote:
TObound wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Problem is that you need to act based on data on hand. So crash history is not interpreted as random independent tests; underlying mechanisms are analyzed and conclusions are made based on much more detailed information than random tests would allow.
ANd based on those mechanisms - MAX has some serious issues, making it unsafe. No need to invoke statistics 101.


I've taken flight safety courses and done certification work. The kind of logic and bias he's shown would absolutely not be allowed. It's terrifying to think he's actually an engineer and signing off on work somewhere.

I can't believe, "Let's just wait till we kill another 150 pax." is supposed to be a serious suggestion on an aviation forum.

I wish people who made such suggestions told me where they worked. I'd like to maintain a wide radius near anything they've touched.


Where did the "And no, with only 2 crashes you can't reliably make that calculation" quote come from? I've gone back 20 pages and I cannot find the original post. I would very much like to read it in context before making any reply. Thanks.


patrickjp93 haa made exactly this argument repeatedly. His argument was that two crashes are statistically insignificant in a fleet of 300 and 250 000 flights. He's also argued that because these crashes occurred with "third world" pilots, they can be further discounted and that authorities should have instead let the MAX keep flying.

You can also see his posts on the thread about Boeing's safety culture.

He works in software for finance. And thinks this experience is transferable to aviation safety.
Last edited by TObound on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:59 am

When exactly is EASA scheduled to do their test flights? Will they flight test actual aircraft or use some engineering sim on the ground? Interesting because they are said to want to test the raw flight behavior with MCAS off.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:00 pm

Interested wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I hate to be pessimistic but the MAX is certainly going to grounded for a year since the ET crash. Maybe, it will get FAA approval sometime in the middle of Q1 but it's looking more like Q2 or maybe Q3 and then you have all those planes to roll out. I have no idea why BA stock is holding up so well. I note is was down about 1% today in an up market.


The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.


In my day job I'm a Portfolio Manager. There is nothing normal about this market. People are looking years into the future and assuming everything will be perfect to justify today's valuation on almost all stocks much like 1999/2000 in the tech Mania just before we had the early 2000's tech crash.

It's not so much as Boeing is holding up well as the rest of the market is just bonkers right now dragging Boeing along with it.
 
Interested
Posts: 885
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:16 pm

morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I hate to be pessimistic but the MAX is certainly going to grounded for a year since the ET crash. Maybe, it will get FAA approval sometime in the middle of Q1 but it's looking more like Q2 or maybe Q3 and then you have all those planes to roll out. I have no idea why BA stock is holding up so well. I note is was down about 1% today in an up market.


The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.


In my day job I'm a Portfolio Manager. There is nothing normal about this market. People are looking years into the future and assuming everything will be perfect to justify today's valuation on almost all stocks much like 1999/2000 in the tech Mania just before we had the early 2000's tech crash.

It's not so much as Boeing is holding up well as the rest of the market is just bonkers right now dragging Boeing along with it.


I will stick to just paying my mortgage off early!!

Investing in shares is just like gambling to me!!

Lol
 
kyu
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2009 7:02 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:24 pm

planecane wrote:
Boeing's annual revenue is over $90 Billion. If you figure a 737 sells for $70 million, eliminating all 737 sales still leaves them with over $50 Billion in revenue. If they shut down the 737 program, it would also eliminate the costs of producing them.
So, while it obviously isn't good for Boeing to have this situation, they aren't on the brink of bankruptcy because of it. Even under the worst case where they have to scrap the MAX, practically give away NGs to keep airlines from not having enough aircraft and go all in on a replacement, the overall financial performance should not lead to that much more of a drop in share price. Maybe another 10%-15%.

To me, that view seems a little short-sighted. A shutdown of the 737 line would entail a myriad of financial repercussions (let alone the priceless loss of trust). Recourse claims by airlines and suppliers, many of them going bankrupt and not being available for future programs. Compensations for thousands of laid-off Boeing workers. A drought of cash for the development of a 737 successor with their cash cow dead. A writeoff of the majority of 737 tooling and machines. A writeoff of the produced MAXes (are they being counted as assets in Boeing's books?). Credits for production spendings to be repaid. A significant deterioration in credit rating.
It's also difficult to imagine a restart of the NG, the supply chain having nearly finished the transition.
I would expect a much more significant stock price correction.
Last edited by kyu on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
planecane
Posts: 1377
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:25 pm

morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I hate to be pessimistic but the MAX is certainly going to grounded for a year since the ET crash. Maybe, it will get FAA approval sometime in the middle of Q1 but it's looking more like Q2 or maybe Q3 and then you have all those planes to roll out. I have no idea why BA stock is holding up so well. I note is was down about 1% today in an up market.


The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.


In my day job I'm a Portfolio Manager. There is nothing normal about this market. People are looking years into the future and assuming everything will be perfect to justify today's valuation on almost all stocks much like 1999/2000 in the tech Mania just before we had the early 2000's tech crash.

It's not so much as Boeing is holding up well as the rest of the market is just bonkers right now dragging Boeing along with it.


The tech boom and crash was a bit different. You had companies blowing through venture capital with stock prices going through the roof while they had no realistic plan or business model to ever be profitable. The valuations now may be a little high but the market isn't going crazy for the most part. There almost has to be some kind of correction in the next few years but as long as the economy stays relatively strong I don't think it will be a crash.
 
Interested
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Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:30 pm

kyu wrote:
planecane wrote:
Boeing's annual revenue is over $90 Billion. If you figure a 737 sells for $70 million, eliminating all 737 sales still leaves them with over $50 Billion in revenue. If they shut down the 737 program, it would also eliminate the costs of producing them.
So, while it obviously isn't good for Boeing to have this situation, they aren't on the brink of bankruptcy because of it. Even under the worst case where they have to scrap the MAX, practically give away NGs to keep airlines from not having enough aircraft and go all in on a replacement, the overall financial performance should not lead to that much more of a drop in share price. Maybe another 10%-15%.

To me, that view seems a little short-sighted. A shutdown of the 737 line would entail a myriad of financial repercussions (let alone the priceless loss of trust). Recourse claims by airlines AND suppliers, many of them going bankrupt and not being available for future programs. Compensations for thousands of laid-off Boeing workers. A drought of cash for the development of a 737 successor with their cash cow dead. A writeoff of the majority of 737 tooling and machines. A writeoff of the produced MAXes (are they being counted as assets in Boeing's books?). Credits for production spendings to be repaid. A significant deterioration in credit rating.
It's also difficult to imagine a restart of the NG, the supply chain having nearly finished the transition.
I would expect a much more significant stock price correction.


It's not just future sales that would be lost or at risk though - what about deposits taken on the 4,500 planes on order that have to be returned and what about the investment in all of the planes that are already made but not delivered or in the midst of production. And compensation to be paid in so many different ways.

Knowing how cashflow is so important to every business I've ever been remotely involved in Boeing must be one of just a handful of organisations in the world that could survive something like this?

And for so long as well.

I'm glad they can survive providing they do get their act together in the future
 
Interested
Posts: 885
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:39 pm

planecane wrote:
Interested wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I hate to be pessimistic but the MAX is certainly going to grounded for a year since the ET crash. Maybe, it will get FAA approval sometime in the middle of Q1 but it's looking more like Q2 or maybe Q3 and then you have all those planes to roll out. I have no idea why BA stock is holding up so well. I note is was down about 1% today in an up market.


The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.


They suspended stock buybacks in April (or earlier but that's when it was reported in an article about financial results).

The stock is down 18% since the ET crash while the DJIA is up 10.5% in the same period (and BA is part of the DJIA so it is held down by BA somewhat). Just using this simple analysis, BA is underperforming the market by 28.5% since the ET crash. I'd hardly say that shares are carrying on like nothing happened.

Boeing's annual revenue is over $90 Billion. If you figure a 737 sells for $70 million, eliminating all 737 sales still leaves them with over $50 Billion in revenue. If they shut down the 737 program, it would also eliminate the costs of producing them.

So, while it obviously isn't good for Boeing to have this situation, they aren't on the brink of bankruptcy because of it. Even under the worst case where they have to scrap the MAX, practically give away NGs to keep airlines from not having enough aircraft and go all in on a replacement, the overall financial performance should not lead to that much more of a drop in share price. Maybe another 10%-15%.


Your point that the stock is down 18 per cent since the ET crash

But most of that drop occurred at the time of the crash?

But what followed was messages of quick fixes that I assumed were there to keep the stock price solid and messages saying all will be ok soon etc

But since then it's been missed deadline after missed deadline and bad news story after bad news story

Yet very little further dropping of the share price. And it seems like any remotely good news story sees the share price jump again whereas the continuous bad news ones don't?

If ever I was going to predict shares this would be a company months ago I would predict their shares are going to fall badly but they seem immune compared to what I would expect

If you had shares in them wouldn't you have wanted to sell months ago?

Wouldn't you want to sell them now if you realistically don't expect these planes to be flying until spring 2020 or later

I just don't get it
 
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par13del
Posts: 9560
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:57 pm

planecane wrote:
The cost of training is huge. If the reported $1 million per MAX to Southwest is true and that had to be extended to all customers, you're talking over $5 billion on top of the cost they've already incurred (assuming over 5,000 units delivered). A couple of extra months grounded and racking up compensation isn't going to be close to that so avoiding training is logically a huge motivation for Boeing.

I thought Boeing had already set aside that much for the grounding, and that is before they even settle all outstanding compensation since the a/c is not RTS and they have no idea when the FAA will declare the a/c safe. Methinks the longer this grounding the less important that cost becomes, just like the cost of a huge adjustment to the production line.
A number of smaller airlines with small fleets already send their pilots to other countries for training, incurring the expense on their dime as it is too cost prohibitive for them to purchase simulators for infrequent use, every airline will not get one and those that do not are already spending funds to fly their pilots out of country, what deal would Boeing have offered them to reduce their training cost resulting in $1 million per MAX? The bulk of the MAX fleet will not reside in the USA, WN may be a significant customer but they will not operate even 30% of the deployed fleet when all is said and done.
 
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par13del
Posts: 9560
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:06 pm

Interested wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I hate to be pessimistic but the MAX is certainly going to grounded for a year since the ET crash. Maybe, it will get FAA approval sometime in the middle of Q1 but it's looking more like Q2 or maybe Q3 and then you have all those planes to roll out. I have no idea why BA stock is holding up so well. I note is was down about 1% today in an up market.


The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.

It may be which Boeing shares people are buying, the Boeing that produces the MAX, 787 and KC-46 which have troubles, or the Boeing that has the contract for the new Air Force trainer, or the Boeing that has contracts to upgrade Apache helicopters, additional updated F-15's, or the Boeing that also has a satellite business etc etc etc.
The MAX may be 80% of Boeing sales, however we also know that their margins on wide body a/c is much larger than narrow body, yes the deferred cost will be bought into the discussion but I will leave that alone, it should also be noted that the commercial side of Boeing does not account for the majority of Boeing's sales and profits.
It may well be that the USA government may ultimately attempt to force Boeing to do a MA Bell deal and separate the subsidiaries, until that happens, we have to assume that the investors are more intelligent than we think and when they view their shares, they look at the company as a whole and not the Boeing MAX company.
Just a thought.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:15 pm

par13del wrote:
planecane wrote:
The cost of training is huge. If the reported $1 million per MAX to Southwest is true and that had to be extended to all customers, you're talking over $5 billion on top of the cost they've already incurred (assuming over 5,000 units delivered). A couple of extra months grounded and racking up compensation isn't going to be close to that so avoiding training is logically a huge motivation for Boeing.

I thought Boeing had already set aside that much for the grounding, and that is before they even settle all outstanding compensation since the a/c is not RTS and they have no idea when the FAA will declare the a/c safe. Methinks the longer this grounding the less important that cost becomes, just like the cost of a huge adjustment to the production line.
A number of smaller airlines with small fleets already send their pilots to other countries for training, incurring the expense on their dime as it is too cost prohibitive for them to purchase simulators for infrequent use, every airline will not get one and those that do not are already spending funds to fly their pilots out of country, what deal would Boeing have offered them to reduce their training cost resulting in $1 million per MAX? The bulk of the MAX fleet will not reside in the USA, WN may be a significant customer but they will not operate even 30% of the deployed fleet when all is said and done.


It is rumored and I think in the case of WN confirmed that Boeing faces contractual penalties of 1m$ per frame if additional training (simulator time) is needed. So that is independent of the grounding. It is part of the sales contract.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:32 pm

par13del wrote:
Interested wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I hate to be pessimistic but the MAX is certainly going to grounded for a year since the ET crash. Maybe, it will get FAA approval sometime in the middle of Q1 but it's looking more like Q2 or maybe Q3 and then you have all those planes to roll out. I have no idea why BA stock is holding up so well. I note is was down about 1% today in an up market.


The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.

It may be which Boeing shares people are buying, the Boeing that produces the MAX, 787 and KC-46 which have troubles, or the Boeing that has the contract for the new Air Force trainer, or the Boeing that has contracts to upgrade Apache helicopters, additional updated F-15's, or the Boeing that also has a satellite business etc etc etc.
The MAX may be 80% of Boeing sales, however we also know that their margins on wide body a/c is much larger than narrow body, yes the deferred cost will be bought into the discussion but I will leave that alone, it should also be noted that the commercial side of Boeing does not account for the majority of Boeing's sales and profits.
It may well be that the USA government may ultimately attempt to force Boeing to do a MA Bell deal and separate the subsidiaries, until that happens, we have to assume that the investors are more intelligent than we think and when they view their shares, they look at the company as a whole and not the Boeing MAX company.
Just a thought.


Well just imagine what the share price of Boeing would be right now without those crashes and without all the problems and delays since those crashes and with good PR rather than all the bad PR and without all the compensation payments?

And with organisations still paying deposits on 50 new Max orders a month etc

The other parts of the business must be HUGE to withstand all of that

Have any staff actually been laid off yet? What are their sales staff actually selling commercially with 80 per cent of their anticipated commercial product not exactly flavour of the month?
Last edited by Interested on Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
planecane
Posts: 1377
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:33 pm

Interested wrote:
planecane wrote:
Interested wrote:

The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.


They suspended stock buybacks in April (or earlier but that's when it was reported in an article about financial results).

The stock is down 18% since the ET crash while the DJIA is up 10.5% in the same period (and BA is part of the DJIA so it is held down by BA somewhat). Just using this simple analysis, BA is underperforming the market by 28.5% since the ET crash. I'd hardly say that shares are carrying on like nothing happened.

Boeing's annual revenue is over $90 Billion. If you figure a 737 sells for $70 million, eliminating all 737 sales still leaves them with over $50 Billion in revenue. If they shut down the 737 program, it would also eliminate the costs of producing them.

So, while it obviously isn't good for Boeing to have this situation, they aren't on the brink of bankruptcy because of it. Even under the worst case where they have to scrap the MAX, practically give away NGs to keep airlines from not having enough aircraft and go all in on a replacement, the overall financial performance should not lead to that much more of a drop in share price. Maybe another 10%-15%.


Your point that the stock is down 18 per cent since the ET crash

But most of that drop occurred at the time of the crash?

But what followed was messages of quick fixes that I assumed were there to keep the stock price solid and messages saying all will be ok soon etc

But since then it's been missed deadline after missed deadline and bad news story after bad news story

Yet very little further dropping of the share price. And it seems like any remotely good news story sees the share price jump again whereas the continuous bad news ones don't?

If ever I was going to predict shares this would be a company months ago I would predict their shares are going to fall badly but they seem immune compared to what I would expect

If you had shares in them wouldn't you have wanted to sell months ago?

Wouldn't you want to sell them now if you realistically don't expect these planes to be flying until spring 2020 or later

I just don't get it


It's still down 7.7% since the initial post crash drop. When remotely good news comes out it jumps but then retreats relatively quickly. I sold my BA stock after the ET crash. If I had not, I'd hold at this point because a year from now it is more likely to be higher than this point than lower. If, as an investor, you feel strongly about the worst case (or close) scenario, the thing to do is short the stock.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:41 pm

planecane wrote:
Interested wrote:
planecane wrote:

They suspended stock buybacks in April (or earlier but that's when it was reported in an article about financial results).

The stock is down 18% since the ET crash while the DJIA is up 10.5% in the same period (and BA is part of the DJIA so it is held down by BA somewhat). Just using this simple analysis, BA is underperforming the market by 28.5% since the ET crash. I'd hardly say that shares are carrying on like nothing happened.

Boeing's annual revenue is over $90 Billion. If you figure a 737 sells for $70 million, eliminating all 737 sales still leaves them with over $50 Billion in revenue. If they shut down the 737 program, it would also eliminate the costs of producing them.

So, while it obviously isn't good for Boeing to have this situation, they aren't on the brink of bankruptcy because of it. Even under the worst case where they have to scrap the MAX, practically give away NGs to keep airlines from not having enough aircraft and go all in on a replacement, the overall financial performance should not lead to that much more of a drop in share price. Maybe another 10%-15%.


Your point that the stock is down 18 per cent since the ET crash

But most of that drop occurred at the time of the crash?

But what followed was messages of quick fixes that I assumed were there to keep the stock price solid and messages saying all will be ok soon etc

But since then it's been missed deadline after missed deadline and bad news story after bad news story

Yet very little further dropping of the share price. And it seems like any remotely good news story sees the share price jump again whereas the continuous bad news ones don't?

If ever I was going to predict shares this would be a company months ago I would predict their shares are going to fall badly but they seem immune compared to what I would expect

If you had shares in them wouldn't you have wanted to sell months ago?

Wouldn't you want to sell them now if you realistically don't expect these planes to be flying until spring 2020 or later

I just don't get it


It's still down 7.7% since the initial post crash drop. When remotely good news comes out it jumps but then retreats relatively quickly. I sold my BA stock after the ET crash. If I had not, I'd hold at this point because a year from now it is more likely to be higher than this point than lower. If, as an investor, you feel strongly about the worst case (or close) scenario, the thing to do is short the stock.



A drop of just 7 per cent from a situation where they first tried to keep flying, then said a quick software fix will have planes back in the air and then 9 months of delays, missed deadlines and bad news and barely an order? Whilst paying compensation all over the place ?

Just doesn't add up. But as someone says above maybe the commercial side of Boeing is just a very small part of their business in the bigger picture

It shows the size of Boeing that such a disastrous period of time can have such little impact on the share price

As I said what does that share price do without all of this? If such bad news stories has so little negative impact
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 511
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:46 pm

planecane wrote:
The tech boom and crash was a bit different. You had companies blowing through venture capital with stock prices going through the roof while they had no realistic plan or business model to ever be profitable. The valuations now may be a little high but the market isn't going crazy for the most part. There almost has to be some kind of correction in the next few years but as long as the economy stays relatively strong I don't think it will be a crash.


I live in Austin and know several people in the startup community. How many startups in this town with a half-baked business plan blow oodles of VC money without turning a profit or even a profit anywhere in their future, you wouldn't believe. And those businesses spend on their employees like crazy. It may not be quite 2000 or 2007, but what I am seeing isn't sustainable. Pretty sure Silicon Valley isn't any better. The cheap money the VCs have access to brings with it a certain kind of risky lending that startups just can't say no to.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:47 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
It is rumored and I think in the case of WN confirmed that Boeing faces contractual penalties of 1m$ per frame if additional training (simulator time) is needed. So that is independent of the grounding. It is part of the sales contract.

My point is that I do not think that is a significant enough sum for Boeing to be fighting the cost of training worldwide because it will be too high.
The bulk of the MAX fleet will not reside with WN, my thought is that it is not financially viable for Boeing to be fighting a cost where 1 customer will account for less than a majority of the deployed fleet. If WN would eventually operate 50% of the MAX fleet that would be a sound financial decision, but if WN will not even operate 30%, its not realistic.
Boeing is a numbers company, if their largest customer block is calling for additional training, who will they listen to?
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:56 pm

Interested wrote:
Have any staff actually been laid off yet? What are their sales staff actually selling commercially with 80 per cent of their anticipated commercial product not exactly flavour of the month?

If staff had been laid off the production line would have been slowed, thousands of vendors in the USA would also be laying off staff and the head of the FAA and the politicians on capital hill would not be having show hearings but actually having hearings to reform the FAA and get the MAX back in the air as soon as possible. Boeing forcing staff to pay for their own parking is a small price for the staff to pay.
Boeing has been eating the cost by continuing to produce 40+ a/c per month, the bigger question is not the share price but when the investors and the board will say enough is enough and initiate a major production cut.
Share prices - not just Boeing - but a good chunk of the market would see a reduction, as Boeing is directly connected to thousands of companies who employ thousands of Americans who will have a bleak new year. Imagine if they announce a cut over the xmas holiday, the new year in Washington will start with a bang, and no it is not about Boeing trying to influence the FAA but pure financing, they have produced and paid the cost of producing 300+ a/c that are earning them no revenue, this is in addition to all the other compensation cost they will have to pay, some can be done by lower sales prices, but cash flow is down and pockets are not endless. Yes Boeing can borrow money but their debt ratio at present is low, so I would think they would prefer to cut versus borrow money, even if rates are low.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:00 pm

par13del wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
It is rumored and I think in the case of WN confirmed that Boeing faces contractual penalties of 1m$ per frame if additional training (simulator time) is needed. So that is independent of the grounding. It is part of the sales contract.

My point is that I do not think that is a significant enough sum for Boeing to be fighting the cost of training worldwide because it will be too high.
The bulk of the MAX fleet will not reside with WN, my thought is that it is not financially viable for Boeing to be fighting a cost where 1 customer will account for less than a majority of the deployed fleet. If WN would eventually operate 50% of the MAX fleet that would be a sound financial decision, but if WN will not even operate 30%, its not realistic.
Boeing is a numbers company, if their largest customer block is calling for additional training, who will they listen to?


What we do not know is how many others have this contractual penalty. And what is really important this is a contractual penalty that is fix in a contract. This is really hard for Boeing to "settle" because airlines can demand this money in cash. Even if only 25% of all the orders have this contractual penalty, that is 1.25B$ of real cash flowing out of Boeing's pockets. Other compensation Boeing might be able to link to future sales etc. with contractual penalties you already wrote down what is owned and the terms how it is owned, and I do not know how it is in the aerospace manufacturing but for the manufacturing business we advice it is normally cash if nothing else is explicitly agreed so our advice is always to avoid any contractual penalty even if it makes your offer more appealing.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:08 pm

It seems the number of white tail produced aircraft has grown. This isn't disclosed in the numbers, booked as valued inventory.
But influencing value, backlog. And you hope they weren't exchanged for something from elsewhere. I see 7 here.

Image
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... accidents/
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:23 pm

keesje wrote:
It seems the number of white tail produced aircraft has grown. This isn't disclosed in the numbers, booked as valued inventory.
But influencing value, backlog. And you hope they weren't exchanged for something from elsewhere. I see 7 here.

Well if they do not have custom interiors, they just have 7 a/c that can be assigned to anyone anywhere in the queue. The more important question from the picture is how many other a/c they have to move before they can get those birds to the paint shop.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:14 pm

Interested wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:

The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.


In my day job I'm a Portfolio Manager. There is nothing normal about this market. People are looking years into the future and assuming everything will be perfect to justify today's valuation on almost all stocks much like 1999/2000 in the tech Mania just before we had the early 2000's tech crash.

It's not so much as Boeing is holding up well as the rest of the market is just bonkers right now dragging Boeing along with it.


I will stick to just paying my mortgage off early!!

Investing in shares is just like gambling to me!!

Lol


Right now you would be basically gambling - just hoping a greater fool would pay a higher price (which can happen) - if you put a lot of money into the market right now at high valuations your expected return over the next 10 years would be very low - you are better off to pay down your mortgage.
 
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smithbs
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:16 pm

planecane wrote:
It's still down 7.7% since the initial post crash drop. When remotely good news comes out it jumps but then retreats relatively quickly. I sold my BA stock after the ET crash. If I had not, I'd hold at this point because a year from now it is more likely to be higher than this point than lower. If, as an investor, you feel strongly about the worst case (or close) scenario, the thing to do is short the stock.


Some of us have been buying since it hit the lows. ;)
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:16 pm

planecane wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:

The share price surviving as well as it has is a HUGE eye opener for me

I don't invest in shares and after following this episode and every so often looking at the Boeing share price it's clear to me something other than normal market forces is propping the shares up in Boeing

It would be pretty impossible for any business to have had a worse year in terms of trading and PR yet "miraculously'" the share price has survived

Are Boeing still buying their own shares or something to try and maintain the share price?

I find it incredible

We all know Boeing are in a huge mess with so many different problems to solve yet the shares carry on as though nothing has happened?

The Max was 80 per cent of their sales???

It's barely had an order for a year in comparison to the past orders

So so strange for the share price to be as it is

If you can't predict share prices to fall in a situation like this then it shows me investing in shares is something to totally avoid. I simply don't trust what I am seeing.


In my day job I'm a Portfolio Manager. There is nothing normal about this market. People are looking years into the future and assuming everything will be perfect to justify today's valuation on almost all stocks much like 1999/2000 in the tech Mania just before we had the early 2000's tech crash.

It's not so much as Boeing is holding up well as the rest of the market is just bonkers right now dragging Boeing along with it.


The tech boom and crash was a bit different. You had companies blowing through venture capital with stock prices going through the roof while they had no realistic plan or business model to ever be profitable. The valuations now may be a little high but the market isn't going crazy for the most part. There almost has to be some kind of correction in the next few years but as long as the economy stays relatively strong I don't think it will be a crash.


You obviously are not familiar with what has been happening with Venture and Private Capital over the last few years. Ever heard of Ubber or Wework? The valuations of many of the unicorns will be found to have been very extreme over the long run.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:32 pm

gregpodpl wrote:
I have not seen this posted - based on hearing and documents released today:
"U.S. regulators decided to allow Boeing Co.’s 737 MAX jet to keep flying after its first fatal crash last fall even after their own analysis indicated it could become one of the most accident-prone airliners in decades without design changes."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/internal-f ... _lead_pos1 (paywall)
and without paywall from Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... crash-risk

From the 2nd link:

According to the Wall Street Journal, FAA officials had major concerns about the Max’s MCAS stall prevention software, which investigators have blamed for the Lion Air crash. But they decided to certify the plane anyway in anticipation of Boeing fixing the software and, in the meantime, telling aircrew worldwide how to respond to MCAS issues.

FAA had "major concerns" but "decided to certify the plane anyway"? A bad showing for FAA. If they had "major concerns", at the minimum shouldn't they have scrubbed the text of the AD a lot more thoroughly and made sure Boeing fully described MCAS's unique behaviors and how to disable MCAS in an unambiguous way?

seahawk wrote:
This silence indicates to me, that they are facing huge problems and it is not politics that keeps them grounded but real technical problems. Either the avionics can not really handle MCAS 2.0 or the stall handling without MCAS is problematic - those are imho the 2 likeliest options.

I see it differently: the silence indicates that all kind of bureaucratic mechanations are taking place. In particular FAA deciding to go with global RTS is now making it so a grand committee decision is needed for RTS and we all know how committees operate.

smartplane wrote:
Universal RTS is coming from the FAA (who don't want to be first man counted), and increasingly the finance and insurance industries (that do not want asset mobility and therefore value impaired, as a result of a disjointed RTS).

Almost by default this is leading to the creation of a well resourced, global airworthiness authority, the catalyst for which has been JATR, from which the original intention was to exclude the FAA.

Don't underestimate the enthusiasm for such moves from A & B. They aren't and won't be singing from the rooftops. However Boeing wants a definitive global list of MAX features to be changed, action approved and implemented, not USA approval, RTS US only, then added changes for the rest of the World, then FAA concluding they are relevant, and adding those retrospectively to the US standard.

And Airbus wants to know where to from here. How far can we push A320 family developments? A bigger A350? An A350NEO? More capability on the A330NEO?

The unfortunate aspect for Boeing, is that they and the MAX have become the catalyst for airworthiness reviews, though some would say this is well deserved, and the first new build post FAA/EASA partnership is the X.

Thanks for the insightful post, it sounds quite plausible to me.

checklist350 wrote:
I think you're a bit premature with declaring the formation of a global regulator and singing its praises.

And I think you are exaggerating for effect.

XRAYretired wrote:
Mr Kiefer, TAB spokesman, in his testimony this week has provided some further insight into the FCC software changes (I guess he must a friend at NASA who knows some software engineers at Boeing). He confirms the calculation and use of a 'midvalue select' for AoA and that the X Channel checks apply to all trim functions.
https://transportation.house.gov/imo/me ... timony.pdf

'...There are four main changes to the B737 MAX flight control system software that have been developed to prevent future accidents like the ones that happened with the Lion Air and Ethiopian Air flights. They include the following:

1. Angle of Attack (AoA) comparison – an addition to MCAS that will now compare readings from both angle of attack sensors on the aircraft. If there is a difference of more than 5.5 degrees the speed trim system will be disabled. Also included in this change is something known as a “midvalue select” which uses data from both sensors together to create a third input that will help to filter out any AOA signal oscillatory failures or spurious sensor failures. This modification will prevent MCAS from commanding nose down trim when a single AoA sensor reports a false AoA as it happened in the two accident flights.

2. MCAS resynchronization – this change will account for manual electric trim inputs made by the pilot while MCAS is activating. It will track whatever input the pilot makes and return the pitch trim to that setting when MCAS retrims back to normal.

3. Stab trim command limit – is an addition that will limit the maximum nose down trim that the automatic flight control system can command to prevent the pitch trim from reaching an uncontrollable situation.

4. FCC monitors – software monitors have been added to the flight control computers that will cross check pitch trim commands against each other. If a difference is detected by these monitors the automatic trim functions are disabled. This protection helps prevent erroneous trim commands from a myriad of causes that could occur in the automatic flight control system.

These design changes in the software that controls the automatic pitch trim features including MCAS should prevent angle of attack sensor failures from causing the pitch trim to operate when it should not. Further, they should prevent the trim from activating erroneously for other reasons as well....'


Ray

#4 seems to be the infamous "bit flip" fix.

morrisond wrote:
Boeing just clarified RTS in a statement. RTS is in 2020.....Crossing fingers

BOEING SAYS IT WILL WORK WITH FAA TO SUPPORT THEIR 737 MAX REQUIREMENTS AND TIMELINE 'AS WE WORK TO SAFELY RETURN THE MAX TO SERVICE IN 2020' - Reuters - 2:51 PM (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada) Dec 12, 2019

Quite rude for Boeing to issue an update with a date in it right after the FAA Chief told them to stop doing such.

As I wrote earlier, Boeing seems to have lost whatever containment they once thought they had on this situation.

Having the FAA Chief publicly complain about Boeing using time lines to pressure the FAA unlike his predecessor who seemed to ignore such seems to me to be a flex / power move on behalf of the FAA Chief and he seems to be getting away with such an assertion.

In other words, Boeing is being boxed about the ears in public and seemingly can do nothing about it.

So much for all the posts about how Boeing pwnes FAA, yada yada.

shmerik wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Well given it's the FAA controlling this dance and the FAA is the one not saying anything on concrete requirements/milestones, I wonder if Boeing can sue for damages after the fact for gross mismanagement of the process.


FAA's milestones:

There are five key milestones Boeing must complete with the FAA before return to service:

FAA eCab Simulator Certification Session: A multi-day eCab simulator evaluation with the FAA to ensure the overall software system performs its intended function, both normally and in the presence of system failures. COMPLETED

FAA Line Pilots Crew Workload Evaluation: A separate, multi-day simulator session with airline pilots to assess human factors and crew workload under various test conditions.

FAA Certification Flight Test: FAA pilots will conduct a certification flight(s) of the final updated software.

Boeing Final Submittal to the FAA: After completion of the FAA certification flight, Boeing will submit the final certification deliverables and artifacts to the FAA to support software certification.

Joint Operational Evaluation Board (JOEB) Simulator Training Evaluation: The Joint Operational Evaluation Board (JOEB), a multi-regulatory body, conducts a multi-day simulator session with global regulatory pilots to validate training requirements. Following the simulator session, the Flight Standardization Board will release a report for a public comment period, followed by final approval of the training.


It doesn't seem that list accommodates EASA's demand to fly a MAX (not a simulated MAX) with MCAS off.

It also seems it is being swept aside due to the global RTS decision made by FAA. Now the checklist will expand to what ever the global committee says it needs to be.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Sooner787
Posts: 2635
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:39 pm

keesje wrote:
It seems the number of white tail produced aircraft has grown. This isn't disclosed in the numbers, booked as valued inventory.
But influencing value, backlog. And you hope they weren't exchanged for something from elsewhere. I see 7 here.

Image
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... accidents/



I'm betting those white tails are former Jet Airways birds. They had 200 some odd Max's on order.

I read that United had struck a deal to take some Max 8 white tails ..... I assume as part of their compensation package.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:52 pm

I agree with you, Rev, that the FCC monitors are the bit flip switch fix. I now see why the software fix is more complex. Instead of one FCC controlling/monitoring everything, both are running and communicating. In my past life, that has always presented software challenges because you have to deal with one computer going offline or other disagreement between the machines. And those high level points generally affect code in numerous places. So I now get a high level flavor that the software changes(not necessarily LOCs but logic) are non-trivial. I shudder at the test cases. I hope RTS happens by Q2.
 
phollingsworth
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:57 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Nice bias there. Each engineering initiative is its own with its own enormous team 90+% separate from every other even at the upper management levels. I assume you don't seriously mean revoke the certificates of the 737 NG, 757, 767, 777-200, and 777-300 families in the same swing, even though that's what you just wrote...


It needs to be clarified, there are multiple certifications involved here.

The Type Certificate accepts the design. This is program level.

The Production Certificate accepts that the production system will make the plane according to the design. This is program level.

The Airworthiness Certificate accepts that the plane meets the type certificate and is in safe condition to operate. This gets approved for each frame and is what was reported in the news a couple weeks ago. Each 737 MAX will have its airworthiness review done by the FAA, not by Boeing designees.

Sooner787 wrote:
Since FAA will be certifying each Max before delivery.... would the FAA have the power to set a monthly production rate
until the backlog is cleared out?


Indirectly, yes, in a manner of speaking. A customer won't accept a plane without an airworthiness certificate. If the FAA isn't staffed to process the certifications as fast as planes are produced, especially early on as they develop the routine for this, it will limit the delivery rate, and the production rate would likely be held back to match.


Correct, though to add the aircraft the FAA will individually conform are those produced on the TC and not those on the PC. The FAA can choose to use its employees or allow designees to do this. Regardless it is legally the FAA that conforms these to type and on a frame by frame basis. This is standard for aircraft built during the testing phase of the programme, and often a number or frames after the TC has been issued. Once on the PC the FAA conforms the overall production system and may choose to check any frame.

Given the number of frames that will have to be produced on the TC, the conformity process is going to take a while. This is especially true if the FAA insists on everyone being done by a civil servant as there are hard limits to the number of these and they cannot readily add more without congressional approval. Boeing is still betting that future 737s built after the TC is issued will quickly be put on the PC and therefore will not have to be individually conformed. The reason to insist that all of the ones sitting in storage are individually conformed is that they will have been built to a number of different specs, most of which will not be the final type.
 
birdbrainz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:27 pm

planecane wrote:
PW100 wrote:

That assumption (that the MAX stalls somewhat normally) seems to be rather iffy. And becoming more iffy by the day . . .


We have no information about the MAX stall characteristics. Just because nobody is releasing information to the public doesn't mean there is some hidden issue.


I distinctly recall statements from at least one commericial 737 pilot who stated that after doing a number of stall recoveries in the 737 Max simulator with MCAS off that the lessening of the yoke force approaching a stall is subtle enough that he wouldn't have noticed had he not been informed ahead of time and been looking for it. He went on to say that the stall behavior in the MAX quite well-behaved and easily recoverable.

Of course, all pilots may not feel this way, and in some ways it's moot as it's definitely not certifiable with the behavior.

The MCAS implementation and certification was an epic screw up, but I'm unconvinced that it's fundamentally bad airplane. Those I've spoken to who've flown it seem to really like it.
A good landing is one you can walk away from. A great landing is if the aircraft can be flown again.
 
Agrajag
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:39 pm

birdbrainz wrote:
planecane wrote:
PW100 wrote:

That assumption (that the MAX stalls somewhat normally) seems to be rather iffy. And becoming more iffy by the day . . .


We have no information about the MAX stall characteristics. Just because nobody is releasing information to the public doesn't mean there is some hidden issue.


I distinctly recall statements from at least one commericial 737 pilot who stated that after doing a number of stall recoveries in the 737 Max simulator with MCAS off that the lessening of the yoke force approaching a stall is subtle enough that he wouldn't have noticed had he not been informed ahead of time and been looking for it. He went on to say that the stall behavior in the MAX quite well-behaved and easily recoverable.

Of course, all pilots may not feel this way, and in some ways it's moot as it's definitely not certifiable with the behavior.

The MCAS implementation and certification was an epic screw up, but I'm unconvinced that it's fundamentally bad airplane. Those I've spoken to who've flown it seem to really like it.



I thought the Max Sims didnt have a true reflection of MCAS installed?
The plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.
Slartibartfast had a point
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:18 pm

Agrajag wrote:
birdbrainz wrote:
planecane wrote:

We have no information about the MAX stall characteristics. Just because nobody is releasing information to the public doesn't mean there is some hidden issue.


I distinctly recall statements from at least one commericial 737 pilot who stated that after doing a number of stall recoveries in the 737 Max simulator with MCAS off that the lessening of the yoke force approaching a stall is subtle enough that he wouldn't have noticed had he not been informed ahead of time and been looking for it. He went on to say that the stall behavior in the MAX quite well-behaved and easily recoverable.

Of course, all pilots may not feel this way, and in some ways it's moot as it's definitely not certifiable with the behavior.

The MCAS implementation and certification was an epic screw up, but I'm unconvinced that it's fundamentally bad airplane. Those I've spoken to who've flown it seem to really like it.



I thought the Max Sims didnt have a true reflection of MCAS installed?


Assuming that is the case, then it would be a good simulation of the stall behavior without MCAS. I think you are correct but don't remember if it was just the failure modes not properly simulated or that MCAS wasn't simulated at all.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
I see it differently: the silence indicates that all kind of bureaucratic mechanations are taking place. In particular FAA deciding to go with global RTS is now making it so a grand committee decision is needed for RTS and we all know how committees operate.


And I think the FAA is only able to go down that route, because Boeing is not able to put pressure on the FAA, which imho means that Boeing has no interest in the FAA talking about the current status of the program at the moment. Boeing needs to plane back in the air, yet they are unable or unwilling to put up a similar amount of pressure as they did in the early months of the grounding, which in my experience only happens if the regulator has very good reasons for its course of action and the manufacturer has a big interest to keep those reasons from the public.
 
lowbank
Posts: 500
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:57 pm

I have heard from my source that while he cannot talk about any specifics (other than saying that technically there was no "regulatory requirement" to address the computer structure) , that there is now a lot more work involved with certification than there ever was in the past, and if this level of detail is required for the 777X or any other revision or new aircraft that it will significantly impact certification time/workload.


And so it should if it saves hundreds of lives.

This industries drive to “Profit over safety” is really starting to become a real worry.
Every days a school day.
 
Chemist
Posts: 666
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:24 pm

Given that the FAA was a large part of the original screwup (in addition to Boeing), it seems that they (FAA) are going to hold their ground and take their time because the last time they let Boeing convince them of things, they got egg on their faces. FAA is probably really pissed off at Boeing and they may not be dragging their feet per se, but they are going to take as long as they need to to get things done. And then you throw into the mix the multi-agency international situation and it's going to be quite a while yet, I suspect.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2282
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:02 pm

planecane wrote:
Agrajag wrote:
birdbrainz wrote:

I distinctly recall statements from at least one commericial 737 pilot who stated that after doing a number of stall recoveries in the 737 Max simulator with MCAS off that the lessening of the yoke force approaching a stall is subtle enough that he wouldn't have noticed had he not been informed ahead of time and been looking for it. He went on to say that the stall behavior in the MAX quite well-behaved and easily recoverable.

Of course, all pilots may not feel this way, and in some ways it's moot as it's definitely not certifiable with the behavior.

The MCAS implementation and certification was an epic screw up, but I'm unconvinced that it's fundamentally bad airplane. Those I've spoken to who've flown it seem to really like it.



I thought the Max Sims didnt have a true reflection of MCAS installed?


Assuming that is the case, then it would be a good simulation of the stall behavior without MCAS. I think you are correct but don't remember if it was just the failure modes not properly simulated or that MCAS wasn't simulated at all.

Since most MAX simulators at the time of ET crash were NG simulations with MAX screens, even correct stall behavior is not a given

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