Revelation wrote:https://www.bing.com/search?q=boeing+st ... ORM=CHROMN
There must be a reason why the Boeing stock doesn't go seriously down? Maybe they know the announced production stop is just a bluff? Wouldn't the market react more visible if Boeing would really burn the bridges to their MAX supply chain now?
Maybe you should consider the market has already factored a lot of the MAX hit into the stock price, and the reality is that while Boeing is taking a big hit on MAX they have more than enough resources to cover the hit and more than just MAX in their product portfolio?
The story being told on this thread of various undisclosed serious problems and a one year or more hit to RTS is speculation, many readers treat it as fact, but the market does not.
Some times a cigar is just a cigar, but turning it into something else makes for a better story.
Boeing's stock price tanked with the grounding.
Was $440.62 per share and rising.
Now: $326.93 per share company worth $188 billion
The company lost 26% of the share price. About $65 billion in value if I assume constant number of shares (close enough).
I'd day the MAX is mostly baked in.
Some here make quite huge claims. I believe the MAX will have RTS. If not, about a quarter million people need new jobs and a huge chunk of Aerospace is bankrupted. I also believe the FAA is professional, but a bit political. It has done a phenomenal job making aviation safe.
I notice quite a few posters say they won't fly them. Questions:
How many narrowbody flights in 2019: Myself 10 round trips, about half my normal.
How many purchased last minute or 1st class? Myself 2, normal is about 12 round trips as a premium customer.
How many Boeing Aircraft: 40% of flights (752 and 739, huh... first year in 15+ years no 738 or 73G). 40% Airbus (A321, A320, and A319) and 20% RJ.
This is Boeing's stock. Investors see the $1.5 billion/month in cash burn reduction. They do not see the pain of restarting the supply chain.
This is like stopping a bunch of parallel freight trains.
Landing gear and engines take forever to stop (a year) and start back up (2 years).
Most parts can be stopped quickly, but will take 6 months to be fully back at speed.
There are some that are slower to stop and restart, but not as bad as engines (Spirit).
This is a facinating decision. I believe this has gone on so long Pilot training and hiring will be another bottleneck. For example, AA pilots now might be flying an Airbus. When the quantity of 737s ramps up, AA will need more pilots, which means RJ promotions and the RJ airlines must hire more pilots.
There is 800+ grounded Aircraft. That is a need for 10,000 to 11,000 pilots, minus retired Aircraft. So we are talking a need for, I guess, about 5,000 pilots.
The system is setup to accept 1,200 Aircraft per year, about half growth, so 600 growth or so.
When 800 MAX, plus MAX production, plus production of: A220, E2, A320NEO.
Yea.... I think airlines pushed back on delivery rates. I'm certain that was part of the WN settlement. That would be another factor in the production halt.
Airlines want MAXs flying. But, for example, SpiceJet is operating with pilots near the maximum allowed hours on leased 737NG. There 14 grounded MAX need about 160 additional pilots for RTS. When there is RTS, the 737 pilot and support (Mechanic) markets will be in high demand.