kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:47 pm

eta unknown wrote:
Actually, MEL is growing faster and I think you'll find those large BNE tech company office buildings are even larger in SYD/MEL.
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected] ... se12017-18.

Most ADL-USA pax travel via MEL. I can't see AA in BNE, but I can see them taking over some of the additional QF MEL-LAX flights and operating them daily. I would be hard pressed to put forward a BNE-SEA business case before SYD-SEA is ever launched.


Definitely agree. Hopefully MEL is confirmed by AA by the end of the month.
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Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:13 pm

kriskim wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Actually, MEL is growing faster and I think you'll find those large BNE tech company office buildings are even larger in SYD/MEL.
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected] ... se12017-18.

Most ADL-USA pax travel via MEL. I can't see AA in BNE, but I can see them taking over some of the additional QF MEL-LAX flights and operating them daily. I would be hard pressed to put forward a BNE-SEA business case before SYD-SEA is ever launched.


Definitely agree. Hopefully MEL is confirmed by AA by the end of the month.


I hope we see AA on MEL-LAX and DFW-BNE. That way we have QF / AA service on:

BNE - LAX/SFO/ORD/DFW

SYD - LAX/SFO/DFW

MEL - LAX/SFO

That connects BNE into everything it needs to be connected into in North America while freeing up QF 787 capacity from MEL. All round good deal!
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:32 pm

Sydscott wrote:
kriskim wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Actually, MEL is growing faster and I think you'll find those large BNE tech company office buildings are even larger in SYD/MEL.
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected] ... se12017-18.

Most ADL-USA pax travel via MEL. I can't see AA in BNE, but I can see them taking over some of the additional QF MEL-LAX flights and operating them daily. I would be hard pressed to put forward a BNE-SEA business case before SYD-SEA is ever launched.


Definitely agree. Hopefully MEL is confirmed by AA by the end of the month.


I hope we see AA on MEL-LAX and DFW-BNE. That way we have QF / AA service on:

BNE - LAX/SFO/ORD/DFW

SYD - LAX/SFO/DFW

MEL - LAX/SFO

That connects BNE into everything it needs to be connected into in North America while freeing up QF 787 capacity from MEL. All round good deal!


With the new QF flights, I don’t see AA going into BNE.

The stated aim from QF is to try and expand ORD and SFO to daily from BNE when the time is right, which does not seem to indicate another destination or flights are on the agenda yet.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:08 am

July BITRE figures:

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_1907.pdf

QR's numbers out of CBR have fallen 25%.
EK's SYD-CHC must be close to the chopping block
UL is holding up well.
VA still the worst performer to New Zealand, but NZ results are very average as well.
I'm that bad type.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:43 am

getluv wrote:
July BITRE figures:

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_1907.pdf

QR's numbers out of CBR have fallen 25%.
EK's SYD-CHC must be close to the chopping block
UL is holding up well.
VA still the worst performer to New Zealand, but NZ results are very average as well.


Are EK permitted to drop CHC under the revised JBA? I know the revised agreement allowed them to drop AKL but I'm not sure about CHC.

Re CBR, I'm not surprised. Firstly the 2018 figures were inflated by stupidly cheap introductory fares which would have driven traffic flow, and second QR now seem to be actively blocking availability from CBR to allow as much capacity from SYD as possible. This flight was always about the second slot at SYD but now it isn't unusual to see avaialbilty out of CBR restricted at the lower fares in both Y and J compared to avaialbilty on the same flight out of SYD.
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DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:33 am

Another 3 submissions made to the IASC on the Japan case prior to submissions closing yesterday: the ACCC and the Qld Govt (through its Dept of Innovation and Tourism Industry Development) supporting VA's application; and QF, unsurprisingly supporting their own submission and suggesting VA not be granted any HND capacity. My personal take on the QF submission is there's a bit of clutching at straws going on, in particular a comment that QF will continue to operate their 747 on the route which we all know is a temporary measure. Now just to wait and see!
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:55 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
Another 3 submissions made to the IASC on the Japan case prior to submissions closing yesterday: the ACCC and the Qld Govt (through its Dept of Innovation and Tourism Industry Development) supporting VA's application; and QF, unsurprisingly supporting their own submission and suggesting VA not be granted any HND capacity. My personal take on the QF submission is there's a bit of clutching at straws going on, in particular a comment that QF will continue to operate their 747 on the route which we all know is a temporary measure. Now just to wait and see!


What were you expecting QF’s submission to say? “Yeah, just give it to them.”
I'm that bad type.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:15 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
getluv wrote:
July BITRE figures:

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_1907.pdf

QR's numbers out of CBR have fallen 25%.
EK's SYD-CHC must be close to the chopping block
UL is holding up well.
VA still the worst performer to New Zealand, but NZ results are very average as well.


Are EK permitted to drop CHC under the revised JBA? I know the revised agreement allowed them to drop AKL but I'm not sure about CHC.

Re CBR, I'm not surprised. Firstly the 2018 figures were inflated by stupidly cheap introductory fares which would have driven traffic flow, and second QR now seem to be actively blocking availability from CBR to allow as much capacity from SYD as possible. This flight was always about the second slot at SYD but now it isn't unusual to see avaialbilty out of CBR restricted at the lower fares in both Y and J compared to avaialbilty on the same flight out of SYD.


From what I recall, there are no capacity restrictions with regards to SYD-CHC, however QF/EK have to report to the ACCC the number of seats flown and a price scan.

I understand that QR started CBR to circumvent the current bilateral agreement. However, if QR are purposwly blocking space from to/from CBR then I would argue QF/VA have a reasonable excuse to lobby the Australian Government to review the ASA.
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QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:17 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
Another 3 submissions made to the IASC on the Japan case prior to submissions closing yesterday: the ACCC and the Qld Govt (through its Dept of Innovation and Tourism Industry Development) supporting VA's application; and QF, unsurprisingly supporting their own submission and suggesting VA not be granted any HND capacity. My personal take on the QF submission is there's a bit of clutching at straws going on, in particular a comment that QF will continue to operate their 747 on the route which we all know is a temporary measure. Now just to wait and see!


I am surprised that no Victorian government agency has made a submission in support of QF’s application. I know this was discussed above, but in my opinion a link to HND is a valuable commercial proposition (given the business community focus on HND flights). This makes me think something is known about NH’s intention to fly HND-MEL. Just my 2c.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:22 am

From a purely pragmatic point of view there is little to no negative outcome from awarding one slot to VA.

If their service is successful then everyone benefits from it (Except QF/JAL).
If its a failure well they either continue serving it whilst incurring loses then consumers still reap the benefits.
Or they axe the route, then it can be awarded to QF and it goes full circle.

In any case the IASC would have done its job.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:29 am

Why do many people insist on lumping QF/JL together? There is no commercial relationship between the two carriers other than an interline agreement for domestic feed at each end and the JL codes on Jestar flights. They are competitors on the Australia-Japan services. JL is no larger in the market than NH currently, and will become the smallest competitor if the NH-VA agreement is approved.
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DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:42 am

QF742 wrote:
I am surprised that no Victorian government agency has made a submission in support of QF’s application. I know this was discussed above, but in my opinion a link to HND is a valuable commercial proposition (given the business community focus on HND flights). This makes me think something is known about NH’s intention to fly HND-MEL. Just my 2c.


I think you can virtually guarantee several parties, including Melbourne Airport, Tourism Victoria and the Victorian Government, are well aware of NH's intention. However, as there is no compulsion whatsoever for NH or VA to make that information public at this point, they will continue to keep that information to themselves until NH is ready to make an announcement - which I don't believe will happen until after the IASC makes its determination on HND.

getluv wrote:
What were you expecting QF’s submission to say? “Yeah, just give it to them.”


No, obviously not - my point was that there is very little substantial argument in QF's submission and a lot of nitpicking.

I think it's important for people to understand (and I have said this before) that the new HND capacity has come as absolutely no surprise to QF, VA or any of the relevant airport operators (no doubt tourism bodies and state government departments, too). Airline operators routinely participate in ASA and capacity negotiations - physically at the table with the government reps from both sides - and are therefore aware to an extent what each other's intentions are. I know for a fact both QF and VA were actively involved in and present at the HND negotiations, and I would hazard a guess that NH and JL were too. JQ is, of course, represented by QF. I have also personally been in meetings where one operators intentions for Japan were alluded to off-hand, and nobody in that room batted an eyelid - that was in September this year, indeed on the day the IASC first invited applications for this capacity.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 4:10 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
No, obviously not - my point was that there is very little substantial argument in QF's submission and a lot of nitpicking.


Very well said. I read the QF response and while I also don't expect QF to roll over and say "Yeah, okay, one slot for us and one for Virgin", this response to Virgin's response seemed without merit and I question if this was necessary or just 'going through the motions'. Maybe there is some lobbying going on behind the scenes and this response is just to lay the groundwork for that. But right now given all the support for Virgin's application you would have to think that one slot for Qantas and one slot for Virgin is almost a foregone conclusion.
 
Hornberger
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:13 am

QF742 wrote:
I am surprised that no Victorian government agency has made a submission in support of QF’s application. I know this was discussed above, but in my opinion a link to HND is a valuable commercial proposition (given the business community focus on HND flights). This makes me think something is known about NH’s intention to fly HND-MEL. Just my 2c.

Business travel is highly non-discretionary. People are not going not fly from Tokyo to Melbourne for a business meeting in Melbourne just because the only flights are from Nairitia.

Business travelers will definitely prefer to have Haneda as option, and in many in cases will pay a premium for that option. But it would rarely affect their decision to fly.

The existence / absence of direct flight between Melbourne and Tokyo could impact on whether a Japanese business decides to start a branch in Melbourne - but which Tokyo airport that flight uses is just too inconsequential to impact on the decision.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:57 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
I think it's important for people to understand (and I have said this before) that the new HND capacity has come as absolutely no surprise to QF, VA or any of the relevant airport operators (no doubt tourism bodies and state government departments, too). Airline operators routinely participate in ASA and capacity negotiations - physically at the table with the government reps from both sides - and are therefore aware to an extent what each other's intentions are. I know for a fact both QF and VA were actively involved in and present at the HND negotiations, and I would hazard a guess that NH and JL were too. JQ is, of course, represented by QF. I have also personally been in meetings where one operators intentions for Japan were alluded to off-hand, and nobody in that room batted an eyelid - that was in September this year, indeed on the day the IASC first invited applications for this capacity.


The one thing I do find humorous, and somewhat ironic, is the ACCC Letter which is in favour of a Virgin allocation.

https://www.iasc.gov.au/applications/fi ... r_2019.pdf

"Flights between Australia and Japan: Virgin Australia’s application would enable it to commence operations between Australia and Japan, introducing a fourth airline to the route."

That is a tremendously factually incorrect statement. Virgin Australia could commence operations at any time, right now absent HND slots.

I also enjoy the somewhat irony in:

"The ACCC considers that allocating one frequency to each of Virgin Australia and Qantas would facilitate greater competition between Virgin Australia and Qantas, and other foreign carriers, on routes between Australia and Japan (including Brisbane and Tokyo). Virgin Australia does not currently operate flights to Japan in its own right, so Virgin Australia commencing flights on any route to Japan would naturally enable it to be a more effective competitor than at present."

Note the part at the end "Virgin Australia commencing flights on any route to Japan would naturally enable it to be a more effective competitor". Well der!! Kinda stating the obvious but to me if Virgin were to start BNE-NRT against QF's already BNE-NRT isn't competition satisfied against this ACCC criteria?

Overall I'm sure the ACCC submission is trying to tell the IASC to give Virgin a slot but this is probably one of the worst IASC submissions I've seen the ACCC do. Also highlights why they normally take so long to get things done as well if this is the best they can come up with in 5 days.

Anyway, with 1 slot each I suppose we will soon learn about the codeshare arrangement Virgin and NH intend to enter into. That'll be interesting in and of itself given the Commissions bias against free sale codeshares or, indeed, if they go for a Joint Business rather than codeshare arrangement.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:05 am

QF probably know which way the IASC is going to side. However, I wouldn't say QF's response is without merit. They raised the obvious points that VA can already start services and provide competition, VA are in financial trouble and that QF are the "no risk" option. .

Unfortunately for QF, the IASC places more emphasis on competition in making decisions. Either way, VA is going to pull A330 from domestic or HKG, which would benefit QF indirectly. Further to this, I suspect there'll be a price war and JQ will be replacing the 787s with A321s very quickly on CNS-NRT/KIX, and OOL-NRT is all but gone.
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Pcoder
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:22 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Why do many people insist on lumping QF/JL together? There is no commercial relationship between the two carriers other than an interline agreement for domestic feed at each end and the JL codes on Jestar flights. They are competitors on the Australia-Japan services. JL is no larger in the market than NH currently, and will become the smallest competitor if the NH-VA agreement is approved.


That's wrong Qantas and Japan airlines do have a codeshare agreement. An example of this is JL37 Haneda to Singapore which is Qantas flight 4018. I've been on that flight.

As with the recent attempt by CX and QF to add more codeshares between HKG and Australia, any attempt to add Japan - Australia codeshares will most likely get shot down, due to their market position.

Also both airlines own large stakes in Jetstar Japan. So there is a clear relationship between the two.
 
log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:24 am

getluv wrote:
July BITRE figures:

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_1907.pdf

QR's numbers out of CBR have fallen 25%.
EK's SYD-CHC must be close to the chopping block
UL is holding up well.
VA still the worst performer to New Zealand, but NZ results are very average as well.


EY's 99.6% inbound load factor Australia wide should be noted, 222 empty seats for the whole month inbound.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
From a purely pragmatic point of view there is little to no negative outcome from awarding one slot to VA.

If their service is successful then everyone benefits from it (Except QF/JAL).
If its a failure well they either continue serving it whilst incurring loses then consumers still reap the benefits.
Or they axe the route, then it can be awarded to QF and it goes full circle.

In any case the IASC would have done its job.


I’m still not sure NH have thought this through. VA don’t currently fly to Japan, NH have a bit to loose if QF/JL get cosy which now with VA/NH competition will be hard to argue against, especially if VA is arguing they will bring competition - is VA a strong enough partner for NH to justify joining up with, to then battle the far stronger JL/QF couple? I’m not so sure. NH could be better off with JL and QF forbidden from cooperating and competing between each other, and add MEL-HND on their own....
 
Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:03 am

getluv wrote:
QF probably know which way the IASC is going to side. However, I wouldn't say QF's response is without merit. They raised the obvious points that VA can already start services and provide competition, VA are in financial trouble and that QF are the "no risk" option. .

Unfortunately for QF, the IASC places more emphasis on competition in making decisions. Either way, VA is going to pull A330 from domestic or HKG, which would benefit QF indirectly. Further to this, I suspect there'll be a price war and JQ will be replacing the 787s with A321s very quickly on CNS-NRT/KIX, and OOL-NRT is all but gone.


Are you joking? OOL-NRT all but gone because VA puts a A330 on BNE-NRT? OOL-NRT has been around long before BNE-NRT was restarted. If any route was to go, it would be QF's BNE-NRT. But they won't. The Japan market is growing and QF aren't going to be too worried about VA's one daily flight.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:42 am

smi0006 wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
From a purely pragmatic point of view there is little to no negative outcome from awarding one slot to VA.

If their service is successful then everyone benefits from it (Except QF/JAL).
If its a failure well they either continue serving it whilst incurring loses then consumers still reap the benefits.
Or they axe the route, then it can be awarded to QF and it goes full circle.

In any case the IASC would have done its job.


I’m still not sure NH have thought this through. VA don’t currently fly to Japan, NH have a bit to loose if QF/JL get cosy which now with VA/NH competition will be hard to argue against, especially if VA is arguing they will bring competition - is VA a strong enough partner for NH to justify joining up with, to then battle the far stronger JL/QF couple? I’m not so sure. NH could be better off with JL and QF forbidden from cooperating and competing between each other, and add MEL-HND on their own....


NH is stronger than JL. Would be a very strong partner for VA.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:44 am

getluv wrote:
QF probably know which way the IASC is going to side. However, I wouldn't say QF's response is without merit. They raised the obvious points that VA can already start services and provide competition, VA are in financial trouble and that QF are the "no risk" option. .

Unfortunately for QF, the IASC places more emphasis on competition in making decisions. Either way, VA is going to pull A330 from domestic or HKG, which would benefit QF indirectly. Further to this, I suspect there'll be a price war and JQ will be replacing the 787s with A321s very quickly on CNS-NRT/KIX, and OOL-NRT is all but gone.


Surely competition is good.
 
budgetflyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:18 am

TasFlyer wrote:
HBA now has new owners: Queensland Investment Corporation and Royal Schiphol Group now have 70% control following their purchase of not only Macquarie Infrastructure's entire majority stake but also some of TasPlan's, who will maintain 30% control, existing minority stake.

Free article at: https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/tas-news-brief-2-oct/11564808?pfmredir=sm

I wonder if more HBA-BNE services will ensue given the new owners have stakes in BNE?


Further to this (and to change the topic from the QF/VA HND slot allocation for a moment), the new owners seem keen to expand and develop, with plans to commence international services as soon as next year. Were int'l flights to start, I wonder which airline would give it a go? The only two I can think of that have a realistic chance of making it work would be NZ and JQ.

https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastru ... 002-p52wyk

Interestingly, according to this article, the airport extracts 54% less per passenger from non-aviation sources (think parking, shops etc.) than other Australian capital city airports. A function of having no international flights (and consequently no duty free) perhaps?
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:29 am

Obzerva wrote:
qf789 wrote:
VARA F100 in SkyWest livery is currently in the paint shop being repainted into Virgin livery


Is this the last one?

When was the last time VA had a complete fleet in the same livery, back when it was Virgin Blue?


Yes its the last one
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NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:38 am

budgetflyer wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:
HBA now has new owners: Queensland Investment Corporation and Royal Schiphol Group now have 70% control following their purchase of not only Macquarie Infrastructure's entire majority stake but also some of TasPlan's, who will maintain 30% control, existing minority stake.

Free article at: https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/tas-news-brief-2-oct/11564808?pfmredir=sm

I wonder if more HBA-BNE services will ensue given the new owners have stakes in BNE?


Further to this (and to change the topic from the QF/VA HND slot allocation for a moment), the new owners seem keen to expand and develop, with plans to commence international services as soon as next year. Were int'l flights to start, I wonder which airline would give it a go? The only two I can think of that have a realistic chance of making it work would be NZ and JQ.

https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastru ... 002-p52wyk

Interestingly, according to this article, the airport extracts 54% less per passenger from non-aviation sources (think parking, shops etc.) than other Australian capital city airports. A function of having no international flights (and consequently no duty free) perhaps?


Maybe a function of being a tiny capital city. Don't get me wrong- Hobart is great but it's a small city.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:41 am

getluv wrote:
July BITRE figures:

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_1907.pdf

QR's numbers out of CBR have fallen 25%.
EK's SYD-CHC must be close to the chopping block
UL is holding up well.
VA still the worst performer to New Zealand, but NZ results are very average as well.


Batik Indonesia loads have increased significantly to 90% inbound and 80% inbound. Having watched their loads recently they are higher than GA on PER-DPS quite often and we haven't seen the A330 return for these school holidays. Also it appears the LOP numbers have been lumped in with the DPS numbers
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:59 am

Not that any airline will be lining up for this but Australia and Nepal have signed an air services agreement

https://blueswandaily.com/nepal-and-aus ... agreement/
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:49 am

log0008 wrote:

EY's 99.6% inbound load factor Australia wide should be noted, 222 empty seats for the whole month inbound.


Pretty impressive, July is a peak travel period though.

But to put further context to the number, Etihad carried 16.8% less passengers in July 2019 vs July 2018, which shows how much capacity they've had to take out of the market.

qf789 wrote:

Not that any airline will be lining up for this but Australia and Nepal have signed an air services agreement.


My sources tell me VA is leasing some A380's and will be commencing a daily service ex SYD/MEL starting in 2020 :duck:
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eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:53 am

NTLDaz wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
From a purely pragmatic point of view there is little to no negative outcome from awarding one slot to VA.

If their service is successful then everyone benefits from it (Except QF/JAL).
If its a failure well they either continue serving it whilst incurring loses then consumers still reap the benefits.
Or they axe the route, then it can be awarded to QF and it goes full circle.

In any case the IASC would have done its job.


I’m still not sure NH have thought this through. VA don’t currently fly to Japan, NH have a bit to loose if QF/JL get cosy which now with VA/NH competition will be hard to argue against, especially if VA is arguing they will bring competition - is VA a strong enough partner for NH to justify joining up with, to then battle the far stronger JL/QF couple? I’m not so sure. NH could be better off with JL and QF forbidden from cooperating and competing between each other, and add MEL-HND on their own....


NH is stronger than JL. Would be a very strong partner for VA.

Not to mention NH can utilise VA a lot for intra-Australia/NZ transfers, which they currently don't have many and the selection was quite limited.

At least when VA hangs around....

Michael
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:03 am

Qantas16 wrote:
getluv wrote:
QF probably know which way the IASC is going to side. However, I wouldn't say QF's response is without merit. They raised the obvious points that VA can already start services and provide competition, VA are in financial trouble and that QF are the "no risk" option. .

Unfortunately for QF, the IASC places more emphasis on competition in making decisions. Either way, VA is going to pull A330 from domestic or HKG, which would benefit QF indirectly. Further to this, I suspect there'll be a price war and JQ will be replacing the 787s with A321s very quickly on CNS-NRT/KIX, and OOL-NRT is all but gone.


Are you joking? OOL-NRT all but gone because VA puts a A330 on BNE-NRT? OOL-NRT has been around long before BNE-NRT was restarted. If any route was to go, it would be QF's BNE-NRT. But they won't. The Japan market is growing and QF aren't going to be too worried about VA's one daily flight.


More capacity will reduce prices to the point they are comparable with JQ via OOL/CNS. In fact, they nearly are.

Low cost airlines can't afford to run routes with a LF of 53-55%.

NTLDaz wrote:
NH is stronger than JL.


Not in Australia.

qf789 wrote:
getluv wrote:
July BITRE figures:

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/o ... y_1907.pdf

QR's numbers out of CBR have fallen 25%.
EK's SYD-CHC must be close to the chopping block
UL is holding up well.
VA still the worst performer to New Zealand, but NZ results are very average as well.


Batik Indonesia loads have increased significantly to 90% inbound and 80% inbound. Having watched their loads recently they are higher than GA on PER-DPS quite often and we haven't seen the A330 return for these school holidays. Also it appears the LOP numbers have been lumped in with the DPS numbers


Batik and GA are benefitting from JQ not expanding.
I'm that bad type.
 
SYDSpotter
Posts: 788
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:25 am

getluv wrote:

NTLDaz wrote:
NH is stronger than JL.


Not in Australia.
.


Based on what measure?
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
getluv
Posts: 515
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:29 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
getluv wrote:

NTLDaz wrote:
NH is stronger than JL.


Not in Australia.
.


Based on what measure?


LFs, growth. You know, the basics.

You can find a couple of years worth of data from this link.
I'm that bad type.
 
Captdasbomb
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:08 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:38 am

qf789 wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
qf789 wrote:
VARA F100 in SkyWest livery is currently in the paint shop being repainted into Virgin livery


Is this the last one?

When was the last time VA had a complete fleet in the same livery, back when it was Virgin Blue?


Yes its the last one


Are they going to repaint the Skywest Offices & Hanger too?
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1002
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:09 pm

getluv wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:
getluv wrote:



Not in Australia.
.


Based on what measure?


LFs, growth. You know, the basics.

You can find a couple of years worth of data from this link.


I would put that down to QFF and largely Australia is a oneworld country. NH is superior in every other respect and VA is lucky that they get to partner with NH. If QF could choose, they would pick NH over JL any day.
 
TasFlyer
Posts: 177
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:15 pm

budgetflyer wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:
HBA now has new owners: Queensland Investment Corporation and Royal Schiphol Group now have 70% control following their purchase of not only Macquarie Infrastructure's entire majority stake but also some of TasPlan's, who will maintain 30% control, existing minority stake.

Free article at: https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/tas-news-brief-2-oct/11564808?pfmredir=sm

I wonder if more HBA-BNE services will ensue given the new owners have stakes in BNE?


Further to this (and to change the topic from the QF/VA HND slot allocation for a moment), the new owners seem keen to expand and develop, with plans to commence international services as soon as next year. Were int'l flights to start, I wonder which airline would give it a go? The only two I can think of that have a realistic chance of making it work would be NZ and JQ.

https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastru ... 002-p52wyk

Interestingly, according to this article, the airport extracts 54% less per passenger from non-aviation sources (think parking, shops etc.) than other Australian capital city airports. A function of having no international flights (and consequently no duty free) perhaps?


Yes, the makeup of International flights will be interesting.

The first two minutes of the local news has an article on the Hobart City Deal, with Federal Minister Alan Tudge flying to HBA today and announcing that International services will commence by the end of next year.

Also, another free article on the new owners' plans for HBA, which include more than doubling the terminal space and launching International services by next year, is available at: https://www.infrastructureinvestor.com/qic-royal-schiphol-take-70-stake-hobart-airport/
 
a320fan
Posts: 779
Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 5:04 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:38 pm

TasFlyer wrote:
budgetflyer wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:
HBA now has new owners: Queensland Investment Corporation and Royal Schiphol Group now have 70% control following their purchase of not only Macquarie Infrastructure's entire majority stake but also some of TasPlan's, who will maintain 30% control, existing minority stake.

Free article at: https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/tas-news-brief-2-oct/11564808?pfmredir=sm

I wonder if more HBA-BNE services will ensue given the new owners have stakes in BNE?


Further to this (and to change the topic from the QF/VA HND slot allocation for a moment), the new owners seem keen to expand and develop, with plans to commence international services as soon as next year. Were int'l flights to start, I wonder which airline would give it a go? The only two I can think of that have a realistic chance of making it work would be NZ and JQ.

https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastru ... 002-p52wyk

Interestingly, according to this article, the airport extracts 54% less per passenger from non-aviation sources (think parking, shops etc.) than other Australian capital city airports. A function of having no international flights (and consequently no duty free) perhaps?


Yes, the makeup of International flights will be interesting.

The first two minutes of the local news has an article on the Hobart City Deal, with Federal Minister Alan Tudge flying to HBA today and announcing that International services will commence by the end of next year.

Also, another free article on the new owners' plans for HBA, which include more than doubling the terminal space and launching International services by next year, is available at: https://www.infrastructureinvestor.com/qic-royal-schiphol-take-70-stake-hobart-airport/


Would be nice to see a real capital city terminal with some jetbridges. Even more needed at OOL, that cramped one level shed is never a pleasure.
A319, A320, A321, A330-200, A350-900, A380, 737-700, 737-800, 777-200ER, 777-300, 777-300ER, 787-8, Q300, Q400
 
getluv
Posts: 515
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:11 pm

xiaotung wrote:
getluv wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:

Based on what measure?


LFs, growth. You know, the basics.

You can find a couple of years worth of data from this link.


I would put that down to QFF and largely Australia is a oneworld country. NH is superior in every other respect and VA is lucky that they get to partner with NH. If QF could choose, they would pick NH over JL any day.


In your opinion. Quality of a product is subjective and has no bearing on the commercial success for a company. There’s enough agnostic passengers in Australia and Japan that are not persuaded by frequent flyer programs. Apart from the WA Government buying their way in, NH has struggled.

In my opinion, NH is lucky to have VA as much as VA is to have NH.
I'm that bad type.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1349
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:08 pm

getluv wrote:
In your opinion. Quality of a product is subjective and has no bearing on the commercial success for a company. There’s enough agnostic passengers in Australia and Japan that are not persuaded by frequent flyer programs. Apart from the WA Government buying their way in, NH has struggled.

In my opinion, NH is lucky to have VA as much as VA is to have NH.

Having seen NH's load factors into SYD particularly in front seats I won't call them struggled. Not top notch yes, but certainly not to a level of struggling. Especially if you want to compare with JAL.

They might not have the best FFP coverage down here, but they focus a lot in Japan POS and that's where they're very strong at. JAL is not even comparable if you try domestic connections (not to mention both JAL flights run from NRT).

Also a general indicator (I know it's not the best) is how easily you can redeem your miles on the flight - to date NH879/880 has been a tough one to find.

Michael
 
a19901213
Posts: 149
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:38 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:53 pm

NH focuses on Japan side feed of traffic. Australia is literally OW territory but if VA to be granted a slot then they’ll have the ability to fly to 3 biggest cities from HND. If we include PER then all of the sudden they fly to 4 biggest cities in Australia.

As I said before business demand is huge between Japan and Australia and continue to grow. I know for a fact that lots of corporate travellers they come in and leave the country from different cities. The ability to appeal its fast access to HND and from there fly to 3 different cities is HUGE.

NH needs VA just as much VA needs NH. This will give them the edge over OW in this market.
 
gpasternak
Posts: 40
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2008 10:28 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:42 pm

Apologies if already discussed. Seems like there will be some slight increases to carrier charges within the Velocity Points program.

Got this email this morning:
The new carrier charges will be effective for bookings made on or after 8 January 2020, on all Virgin Australia operated flights. There are no changes to carrier charges for flights to and from Los Angeles.

Domestic^ and Trans-Tasman
• Economy Class changes from $3.50 to $10.00
• Business Class changes from $5.50 to $10.00

International Short Haul
• Economy Class changes from $25.00 to $35.00
• Business Class changes from $50.00 to $70.00


Hong Kong
• Economy Class changes from $35.00 to $45.00
• Business Class changes from $50.00 to $98.00


Los Angeles
• No changes
Next flights: MKY-BNE-SYD-LAX-DEN-YYC-DEN-LAS-SFO-SYD-BNE-MKY
 
getluv
Posts: 515
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:43 pm

eamondzhang wrote:
getluv wrote:
In your opinion. Quality of a product is subjective and has no bearing on the commercial success for a company. There’s enough agnostic passengers in Australia and Japan that are not persuaded by frequent flyer programs. Apart from the WA Government buying their way in, NH has struggled.

In my opinion, NH is lucky to have VA as much as VA is to have NH.

Having seen NH's load factors into SYD particularly in front seats I won't call them struggled. Not top notch yes, but certainly not to a level of struggling. Especially if you want to compare with JAL.

They might not have the best FFP coverage down here, but they focus a lot in Japan POS and that's where they're very strong at. JAL is not even comparable if you try domestic connections (not to mention both JAL flights run from NRT).

Also a general indicator (I know it's not the best) is how easily you can redeem your miles on the flight - to date NH879/880 has been a tough one to find.

Michael


No it's not a good indicator because redemptions are just as hard to find on QF and JL as well.

I wouldn't say NH's numbers are dire, but they're not very good considering they have access to HND and the better domestic connections as you say. JL seems to be holding its own which seems to indicate that traffic is primarily leisure in nature.
I'm that bad type.
 
Pcoder
Posts: 121
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:44 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:00 am

getluv wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
getluv wrote:
In your opinion. Quality of a product is subjective and has no bearing on the commercial success for a company. There’s enough agnostic passengers in Australia and Japan that are not persuaded by frequent flyer programs. Apart from the WA Government buying their way in, NH has struggled.

In my opinion, NH is lucky to have VA as much as VA is to have NH.

Having seen NH's load factors into SYD particularly in front seats I won't call them struggled. Not top notch yes, but certainly not to a level of struggling. Especially if you want to compare with JAL.

They might not have the best FFP coverage down here, but they focus a lot in Japan POS and that's where they're very strong at. JAL is not even comparable if you try domestic connections (not to mention both JAL flights run from NRT).

Also a general indicator (I know it's not the best) is how easily you can redeem your miles on the flight - to date NH879/880 has been a tough one to find.

Michael


No it's not a good indicator because redemptions are just as hard to find on QF and JL as well.

I wouldn't say NH's numbers are dire, but they're not very good considering they have access to HND and the better domestic connections as you say. JL seems to be holding its own which seems to indicate that traffic is primarily leisure in nature.


On the side of the quality of JAL and ANA, they are both top quality airlines. In the quality stakes, I'd say JAL surpasses ANA in many areas , particularly its international economy service.

In regards to the ANA numbers out of Sydney, this is probably a reflection of the poor connections on the Sydney side, with only a basic interline with Virgin. Once a codeshare is started between the two, the numbers should improve.
 
DeltaB717
Posts: 1682
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 3:49 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:06 am

qf789 wrote:
Not that any airline will be lining up for this but Australia and Nepal have signed an air services agreement

https://blueswandaily.com/nepal-and-aus ... agreement/


You do realise Nepal has airlines as well, yes?
 
getluv
Posts: 515
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:08 am

Pcoder wrote:
getluv wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
Having seen NH's load factors into SYD particularly in front seats I won't call them struggled. Not top notch yes, but certainly not to a level of struggling. Especially if you want to compare with JAL.

They might not have the best FFP coverage down here, but they focus a lot in Japan POS and that's where they're very strong at. JAL is not even comparable if you try domestic connections (not to mention both JAL flights run from NRT).

Also a general indicator (I know it's not the best) is how easily you can redeem your miles on the flight - to date NH879/880 has been a tough one to find.

Michael


No it's not a good indicator because redemptions are just as hard to find on QF and JL as well.

I wouldn't say NH's numbers are dire, but they're not very good considering they have access to HND and the better domestic connections as you say. JL seems to be holding its own which seems to indicate that traffic is primarily leisure in nature.


On the side of the quality of JAL and ANA, they are both top quality airlines. In the quality stakes, I'd say JAL surpasses ANA in many areas , particularly its international economy service.

In regards to the ANA numbers out of Sydney, this is probably a reflection of the poor connections on the Sydney side, with only a basic interline with Virgin. Once a codeshare is started between the two, the numbers should improve.

I still think quality and connections is irrelevant to NH's performance. .

Point of comparison, JL's relationship with QF is also largely interline based and their flight to MEL doesn't connect to any QF flight. Additionally, JL only codeshare on a handful of QF domestic/New Zealand flights out of SYD.
I'm that bad type.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1349
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:15 am

getluv wrote:

Point of comparison, JL's relationship with QF is also largely interline based and their flight to MEL doesn't connect to any QF flight. Additionally, JL only codeshare on a handful of QF domestic/New Zealand flights out of SYD.

It absolutely does, at least from Japanese POS, and that's why both JAL and ANA are excellent (although flown both I prefer ANA by a far margin).

And let's be honest, JAL has been flying to SYD for 30 years when ANA has what, 2? 3? And MEL flight has a tiny seat count to fill (comparable with QF's 738....)

If you try buying ANA tickets ex-MEL/BNE/ADL the selection is severely limited, which will most likely have an impact on customer preference.

Although I tend to agree with an earlier statement that JAL might be better in Y due to wider seats and more proper food (ANA's SYD service is based on their SE Asia flight standard, which means reduced catering for overnights).

Michael
 
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qf2220
Posts: 1686
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:03 am

qf789 wrote:
Not that any airline will be lining up for this but Australia and Nepal have signed an air services agreement

https://blueswandaily.com/nepal-and-aus ... agreement/


It is interesting where a an Australian carrier ticketed codeshare is not possible. I flew to VTE a few years ago but couldn't on a QF ticket. Had to have separate QF and QV tickets with a long layover in BKK.

Id say this ASA is about reducing a similar gap for Nepali codeshares to happen now. Perhaps via HKG or BKK with RA?
 
kriskim
Posts: 373
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:44 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:39 am

qf2220 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Not that any airline will be lining up for this but Australia and Nepal have signed an air services agreement

https://blueswandaily.com/nepal-and-aus ... agreement/


It is interesting where a an Australian carrier ticketed codeshare is not possible. I flew to VTE a few years ago but couldn't on a QF ticket. Had to have separate QF and QV tickets with a long layover in BKK.

Id say this ASA is about reducing a similar gap for Nepali codeshares to happen now. Perhaps via HKG or BKK with RA?


Apparently Nepal Airlines was/is looking at SYD.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 7887
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:52 am

qf2220 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Not that any airline will be lining up for this but Australia and Nepal have signed an air services agreement

https://blueswandaily.com/nepal-and-aus ... agreement/


It is interesting where a an Australian carrier ticketed codeshare is not possible. I flew to VTE a few years ago but couldn't on a QF ticket. Had to have separate QF and QV tickets with a long layover in BKK.

Id say this ASA is about reducing a similar gap for Nepali codeshares to happen now. Perhaps via HKG or BKK with RA?


Qantas have fares loaded to VTE interlining onto both PG and QV via BKK. Not QF code, but definitely bookable on one ticket with the interline carriers code.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
Ruscoe
Posts: 1737
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 5:41 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:03 am

Air Transport world are quoting the Chief Technical Pilot of Qantas on various Project Sunrise matters.
The one that caught my eye is that the proposed LHR to Sydney information gathering flight with a 789 delivery is expected to burn 85T of fuel with 55 pax. New York to Sydney is considered the most challenging route because at this time of year, headwinds can average up to 30knots.
Also that PER-LHR has a 92 to 94% load factor and has not had a single diversion.
Ruscoe
 
Boof
Posts: 160
Joined: Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:16 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:22 am

Seems like JQ announced flights from MEL to BQB today. I recall a whisper about this a few months ago on this forum so good to see it has happened.

https://www.jetstar.com/au/en/deals/mel ... aret-river
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