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MIflyer12
Posts: 8502
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:10 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Why is this happening? AA and AS should be growing closer, not further apart.

What on earth is AS’s strategy going forward?


I hope they considered the possibility of being the 5th largest U.S. carrier and without a domestic partner before they made the offer for Virgin America. Think about how B6 makes it work - or doesn't.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5092
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:11 pm

chrisp390 wrote:
Time for merger mania. A combination of AA & AS.

American via USAir has absorbed Pacific Southwest, American has Absorbed Air Cal, Both of whom had Extensive West Coast Networks and then basically Frittered them Away. Now what would they Do with Alaska? Nothing! Hell They're about to ruin American with their picayune thinking
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1452
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:17 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
kdeg00 wrote:
I also would have thought that there was some appeal by AA for AS's limited Mexico connections despite AA's massive Latin America coverage.


AA is the single largest airline between the U.S. and Mexico, larger than even AeroMexico.


I'm guessing AeroMexico beats AA handily on costs.
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:18 pm

LAXBUR wrote:

Alaska is bigger than ever but somehow people seem to come to the conclusion it is smaller than ever. Have they made cuts, yes. Are they still flying more route than they did before the merger, yes. Are they profitable, yes. Apparently flying unprofitable routes is sensical but cutting unprofitable routes makes “zero sense.”


I didn't say anything about the size. But after the VX merger they were very loud about their ambitions for California. Almost all of that has been pulled back. They said themselves at the time that they had limited growth opportunities with their current network. And their plan to mitigate that clearly didn't work given the cuts. So tell me how they have a great path forward?
 
Gulfstream500
Posts: 478
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:30 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:21 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
berari wrote:
AS is starting to get isolated, which is a challenge especially given the geographical isolation it already lives in. I would have expected AA to be its long term partner, or even better, merger potential. All that AS now has is the feed it gets from Asian airlines and EK, which I wonder were contributing reasons for AA to walk away.


Codeshare partners

American Airlines
British Airways
Cathay Pacific
Emirates
Fiji Airways
Finnair
Icelandair
Japan Airlines
Korean Air
LATAM Airlines
PenAir
Qantas
Singapore Airlines


I could see JetBlue as their future partner. Currently, for obvious reasons, Alaska does not fly to the Caribbean or to smaller cities in the Northeast. Through a partnership with B6 one could book flights on the AS website as follows:

SEA-FLL-AUA
SFO-BOS-ACK
PAE-SJC-LGB
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:29 pm

TW787 wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

Alaska is bigger than ever but somehow people seem to come to the conclusion it is smaller than ever. Have they made cuts, yes. Are they still flying more route than they did before the merger, yes. Are they profitable, yes. Apparently flying unprofitable routes is sensical but cutting unprofitable routes makes “zero sense.”


I didn't say anything about the size. But after the VX merger they were very loud about their ambitions for California. Almost all of that has been pulled back. They said themselves at the time that they had limited growth opportunities with their current network. And their plan to mitigate that clearly didn't work given the cuts. So tell me how they have a great path forward?


“Almost all has been pulled back”

That simply isn’t true. The only intra-California routes to be cut have been SJC-BUR and recently SJC-SNA the latter likely for slot losses. SNA-SFO will be up to 7 daily flights. Have they reduced or cut Californian to mid-America and some trans-con? Yes. But I think you’re creating a false narrative. The whole marketing campaign in regards to the merger was heavily emphasized on West Coast flying, not transcon. They are bigger in California and especially intra-California than ever before. Your personal metric doesn’t count.
Last edited by LAXBUR on Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1452
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:29 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
berari wrote:
AS is starting to get isolated, which is a challenge especially given the geographical isolation it already lives in. I would have expected AA to be its long term partner, or even better, merger potential. All that AS now has is the feed it gets from Asian airlines and EK, which I wonder were contributing reasons for AA to walk away.


Codeshare partners

American Airlines
British Airways
Cathay Pacific
Emirates
Fiji Airways
Finnair
Icelandair
Japan Airlines
Korean Air
LATAM Airlines
PenAir
Qantas
Singapore Airlines


I could see JetBlue as their future partner. Currently, for obvious reasons, Alaska does not fly to the Caribbean or to smaller cities in the Northeast. Through a partnership with B6 one could book flights on the AS website as follows:

SEA-FLL-AUA
SFO-BOS-ACK
PAE-SJC-LGB


From a strictly entertainment point of view it would be hilarious to see Alaska merge with another all-Airbus airline. "Proudly all Boeing," indeed!

Disclaimer: yes, i know about the jungle jets.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:41 pm

Recently I booked a flight from AUS to SFO to WUH on AS and CZ. I'm able to earn AA miles on CZ, but not on AS, so I had to use my HU frequent flyer account for the AS portions.
 
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aeromoe
Posts: 1344
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:46 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
global1 wrote:

I believe spurning DL will ultimately prove to have been a major strategic error.


How did Alaska spurn Delta?


As a previous AS frequent flyer here, DL showed up in AS flight choices when I was searching for potential itineraries on AS's website or app. Not any more as of a year or two ago...not sure exactly when. That's qualifies as a spurn in my opinion.

Currently AA shows up with AS options on the website or app.

Moe
Since 60s: AA AC AS BA BD BF BN BR(85) BY B6 CO CZ(16) DG DL EA EI EN FI FL FT F9 HA HP ICX JI JQ J7 KE KL KS LH MC NW OC OO OZ(87) OZ(88) PA PI PN(97) PT QF QQ RM RO RV(99) RV(16) RW SK SM SQ S4 TI TS TW UA UK US UZ VS VX WA WN WS W7 XV YV YX(13) ZZ 9K
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:51 pm

aeromoe wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
global1 wrote:

I believe spurning DL will ultimately prove to have been a major strategic error.


How did Alaska spurn Delta?


As a previous AS frequent flyer here, DL showed up in AS flight choices when I was searching for potential itineraries on AS's website or app. Not any more as of a year or two ago...not sure exactly when. That's qualifies as a spurn in my opinion.

Currently AA shows up with AS options on the website or app.

Moe


lol. Delta sets up a hub in Alaska’s Seattle hub and things get nasty and Alaska is to blame. Hilarious!
 
Dieuwer
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:37 am

Just watch when AA tells BA and CX to cut ties with AS.
Take KE for instance. They might keep doing business with AS per concession to the KE-DL JV, but that does not mean that DL and KE have to play nice with AS. For instance, KE could publish fare rules that tacks on an extra fee just for connecting onto AS flights. Or KE can make only fanthom awards seat available to AS. Or KE personnel can be instructed to give AS pax the cold shoulder during flight. Or put them at the bottom of the list during IRROPS.
 
GSPSPOT
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:48 am

Who initiated this change - AS or AA? Doesn't seem to benefit either airline. AA really could use the AS network as a de-facto presence in the Northwest, since their current presence is largely hub-only flying.
Great Lakes, great life.
 
Sightseer
Posts: 998
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:18 am

LAXBUR wrote:
aeromoe wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

How did Alaska spurn Delta?


As a previous AS frequent flyer here, DL showed up in AS flight choices when I was searching for potential itineraries on AS's website or app. Not any more as of a year or two ago...not sure exactly when. That's qualifies as a spurn in my opinion.

Currently AA shows up with AS options on the website or app.

Moe


lol. Delta sets up a hub in Alaska’s Seattle hub and things get nasty and Alaska is to blame. Hilarious!

Just for context, prior to its SEA buildup DL asked AS if it would stop feeding other INTL airlines at SEA and exclusively feed DL instead. AS ultimately said no, and the rest is history.
 
Sydscott
Posts: 3513
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:50 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:52 am

Sightseer wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
aeromoe wrote:

As a previous AS frequent flyer here, DL showed up in AS flight choices when I was searching for potential itineraries on AS's website or app. Not any more as of a year or two ago...not sure exactly when. That's qualifies as a spurn in my opinion.

Currently AA shows up with AS options on the website or app.

Moe


lol. Delta sets up a hub in Alaska’s Seattle hub and things get nasty and Alaska is to blame. Hilarious!

Just for context, prior to its SEA buildup DL asked AS if it would stop feeding other INTL airlines at SEA and exclusively feed DL instead. AS ultimately said no, and the rest is history.


It is indeed and AS is bigger now that it ever was, with more Partners now that it has ever had and more flights out of SEA than it has ever had. Couple with a history of industry leading margins pre VX and recovering margins post the Merger and have a recipe for a pretty good airline that can throw off a whole lot of cash for investors. Which is exactly what is does.
 
kdeg00
Posts: 153
Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2004 5:41 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 4:59 am

luckyone wrote:
kdeg00 wrote:
Interestingly (at least to me), with LATAM ditching AA/OneWorld and aligning with DL, I was assuming now might be a good time for AS to look at a more integrated position within OneWorld. I also would have thought that there was some appeal by AA for AS's limited Mexico connections despite AA's massive Latin America coverage.

Because obviously now we should expect an announcement in the next six to twelve months that Delta is going to buy Alaska Airlines. :cheeky:


Maybe I'm being dense, but I don't understand your response. My point was that I expected AA to increase cooperation with partners rather than decrease post LATAM's break with OW. Could you explain your response in relation to that?
AS 75K, DL Gold, BA Silver
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:27 pm

LAXBUR wrote:

That simply isn’t true. The only intra-California routes to be cut have been SJC-BUR and recently SJC-SNA the latter likely for slot losses. SNA-SFO will be up to 7 daily flights. Have they reduced or cut Californian to mid-America and some trans-con? Yes. But I think you’re creating a false narrative. The whole marketing campaign in regards to the merger was heavily emphasized on West Coast flying, not transcon. They are bigger in California and especially intra-California than ever before. Your personal metric doesn’t count.


I looked at all new markets launched since January 2016 that touched the state of California before this last round of redeployment to the small PNW markets. In that period, they launched 51 new California routes:

1 BURSJC
2 HNLLAX
3 HAVLAX
4 LAXMEX
5 LAXOGG
6 LAXPAE
7 PHLLAX
8 LAXSJC
9 PAEPSP
10 ABQSAN
11 AUSSAN
12 BWISAN
13 DALSAN
14 ELPSAN
15 EWRSAN
16 GEGSAN
17 MCISAN
18 MEXSAN
19 MSPSAN
20 OMASAN
21 PAESAN
22 SJCSAN
23 SANSMF
24 SANSTL
25 ABQSFO
26 BNASFO
27 BWISFO
28 DENSFO
29 INDSFO
30 KOASFO
31 MCISFO
32 MCOSFO
33 MEXSFO
34 MSPSFO
35 MSYSFO
36 PAESFO
37 PHLSFO
38 PHXSFO
39 RDUSFO
40 SNASFO
41 EWRSJC
42 JFKSJC
43 PAESJC
44 SJCSNA
45 SJCTUS
46 KOASMF
47 SJDSMF
48 ABQSNA
49 PAESNA
50 RNOSNA
51 SNASTS

Of those 51 routes, they have cancelled 25 as of March 2020:
1 BURSJC
2 HAVLAX
3 LAXMEX
4 PHLLAX
5 ABQSAN
6 BWISAN
7 DALSAN
8 ELPSAN
9 MCISAN
10 MEXSAN
11 MSPSAN
12 OMASAN
13 SANSTL
14 ABQSFO
15 BNASFO
16 DENSFO
17 INDSFO
18 MCISFO
19 MEXSFO
20 MSPSFO
21 PHLSFO
22 PHXSFO
23 RDUSFO
24 ABQSNA
25 RNOSNA

In addition, they have cancelled 14 other California markets that were in existence before Jan '16:
1 LAXSUN
2 CUNLAX
3 GUCLAX
4 LAXMCO
5 LAXMFR
6 LAXMMH
7 LAXMRY
8 MMHSAN
9 JFKPSP
10 CUNSFO
11 EUGSJC
12 SJCSLC
13 PVRSNA
14 SJDSNA

So, they are net 12 new routes (+51-25-14). Hardly seems like the smashing success you say it is, but I'm sure you'll just point to the +12 and say they are bigger, and you would be correct. But again, my point was not that they are not bigger in California. My point was that after the merger, they executed what they thought was the best growth opportunities in California, and they've since changed course and gone back to their PNW roots. Which is probably a profit positive move in the short term, but shows that they don't have a whole lot of growth opportunities in the long term.
 
iflykpdx
Posts: 273
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2007 8:42 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:57 pm

Of those 51 routes, they have cancelled 25 as of March 2020:

28 including SJC-JFK, SJC-DAL and SJC-SNA
Airport Management - UND
 
DWC
Posts: 607
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:11 pm

TW787 wrote:
chrisp390 wrote:
Time for merger mania. A combination of AA & AS.

I think it is time for AA & AS to get together, if done right.
AA needs a return to focus on customer service and operational excellence. AS has both of those.
AS has lost its way with its recent network changes that make little to zero sense. So it appears they have no future except as a PNW carrier. AA would solve that problem.
Would the whole thing probably get bungled by the inferior leadership at both carriers? Probably, but in theory it makes sense.

No it doesn't, another merger is the last thing the market needs, specially if it is going down AA appalling customer service, with delays & "no" as typical answers to requests. People have a picayune reflex that merging will solve things, it always leads to less competition & less incentive to better service, just ask former VA loyals.
Plus if getting bigger were the answer, dinosaurs would still be around ! so would PanAm, Eastern, etc. IBM, Enron, Blockbusters, all gone the dodo's way.

So given that AS' network is not about to attract nationwide business contracts, or transcon FF, B6 ( or Moxy ) are the obvious solution.
Question then is : why haven't AS & B6 codeshared more ?
I am not sure either want to relinquish their identity in a merger, but that may be their salvation indeed to DL & AA ramping up on their turf fast to force them out of the US market.

On a sidenote : does anyone know what discounts do AS get from Boeing ? Or any other perks ?
If I were Boeing, I'd go out of my way to prevent my SEA-based barrier from having any Airbus frame ( or whatever other OEM's in the future ), the contrary would be read as a Trojan horse showing superior specs, cannot happen.
Last edited by DWC on Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3797
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:13 pm

TW787 wrote:
My point was that after the merger, they executed what they thought was the best growth opportunities in California, and they've since changed course and gone back to their PNW roots. Which is probably a profit positive move in the short term, but shows that they don't have a whole lot of growth opportunities in the long term.


There are still some further expansion opportunities remaining for AS out of SEA as AS could add nonstop service to CLT, CVG, CLE, DSM, BDL, YUL, MSN, ORF, YQR, YXE, YYZ, TUL, and YWG out of SEA.
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:39 pm

iflykpdx wrote:
Of those 51 routes, they have cancelled 25 as of March 2020:

28 including SJC-JFK, SJC-DAL and SJC-SNA


Yes, and I also see that KOA-SFO/SMF are both gone later as well. So that would be 30 of the 51 have been cancelled. I just didn't want to cloud things beyond March with all the tiny PNW-California adds which, while technically California, are more a reflection of pre-merger AS than what the merger was sold to us as.
 
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smithbs
Posts: 518
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:14 pm

TW787 wrote:
chrisp390 wrote:
Time for merger mania. A combination of AA & AS.


I typically don't participate in this kind of conversation, but in this case I think it is time for AA & AS to get together, if done right.

AA needs a return to focus on customer service and operational excellence. AS has both of those.

AS has lost its way with its recent network changes that make little to zero sense. So it appears they have no future except as a PNW carrier. AA would solve that problem.

Would the whole thing probably get bungled by the inferior leadership at both carriers? Probably, but in theory it makes sense.


AA would squash AS's culture and have nothing to show for it. Only AA can right itself. There is a history of "desperation mergers" and they never succeed - the buyer is usually too crusty to realize tangible benefits and just continues its original course. If AA acquired AS, it would be to help itself to AS's cash drawer and then mismanage the AS network into the ground. As mentioned by another poster, AA has done this before to west coast airlines. Remember the 727s with smiles on the front?
 
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smithbs
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:16 pm

DWC wrote:
So given that AS' network is not about to attract nationwide business contracts, or transcon FF, B6 ( or Moxy ) are the obvious solution.
Question then is : why haven't AS & B6 codeshared more ?
I am not sure either want to relinquish their identity in a merger, but that may be their salvation indeed to DL & AA ramping up on their turf fast to force them out of the US market.


Good question. Both could keep their identity and work together with a good list of codeshares. Or if there was a merger, maybe just a holding company with two brands and integrated ticketing.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:50 pm

TW787 wrote:
iflykpdx wrote:
Of those 51 routes, they have cancelled 25 as of March 2020:

28 including SJC-JFK, SJC-DAL and SJC-SNA


Yes, and I also see that KOA-SFO/SMF are both gone later as well. So that would be 30 of the 51 have been cancelled. I just didn't want to cloud things beyond March with all the tiny PNW-California adds which, while technically California, are more a reflection of pre-merger AS than what the merger was sold to us as.


Your interpretation. The “tiny” recent adds are West Coast flying. I mean they had a plane painted “Most West Coast”. Seems pretty in line. And as others have discussed these adds should have come after the merger instead of SAN-(some mid size mid America airport). I don’t believe the merger was sold as “California to mid-America.” And while a cut is not a good thing it isn’t as if they can’t add these flights back at some point as they better develop their California business. But I understand that like many on here people seem to relish the idea of smaller airlines failing. Very strange.
 
Prost
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Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 4:10 pm

AS still have better profit margins than DL, UA, and AA. I may be thick, but it seems to me their playbook is working.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 4:14 pm

Sightseer wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
aeromoe wrote:

As a previous AS frequent flyer here, DL showed up in AS flight choices when I was searching for potential itineraries on AS's website or app. Not any more as of a year or two ago...not sure exactly when. That's qualifies as a spurn in my opinion.

Currently AA shows up with AS options on the website or app.

Moe


lol. Delta sets up a hub in Alaska’s Seattle hub and things get nasty and Alaska is to blame. Hilarious!

Just for context, prior to its SEA buildup DL asked AS if it would stop feeding other INTL airlines at SEA and exclusively feed DL instead. AS ultimately said no, and the rest is history.


It still shows Delta throwing their weight around and essentially bullying. It is business. I don’t hold that against Delta. But I also don’t understand how one could think Alaska spurned the much larger Delta. Also being a feeder to Delta would have better paved a way to a take over. Now that they compete it makes it a bit more difficult.
 
global1
Posts: 520
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:31 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 4:55 pm

Over the long term Alaska is pretty much in "eat or be eaten"territory
.
If eaten by AA, they will soon regret the day they turned away from a partnership with Delta. Anyone remember PSA, AirCal, and RenoAir?
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:07 pm

global1 wrote:
Over the long term Alaska is pretty much in "eat or be eaten"territory
.
If eaten by AA, they will soon regret the day they turned away from a partnership with Delta. Anyone remember PSA, AirCal, and RenoAir?


Do you think your opinion is new or unique? People have been saying Alaska won’t survive for 20+ years. Again, so many nasty people on here excited by job losses and loss of competition.
 
global1
Posts: 520
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:31 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:33 pm

My opinion is my opinion. It does not need to be "new" or "unique", nor is it intended to be nasty in any way.
I have nothing but high regard for Alaska and their produc

The industry today is a different world than 10 years ago, let alone 20. My money is on Alaska, JetBlue, and Hawaiian, being unlikely to survive as standalone entities going forward. A combination of any of those 3 would not be competitive either to the likes of UA/DL/AA or WN.

My previous employer Northwest did not survive in name, but became a part of something larger.
I'm just saying partners on the dance floor are scarce and, compared to what's out there, Delta is the one that got away. Their customer service and labor relations philosopies were much more compatible than AA/AS.
Last edited by global1 on Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:01 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:49 pm

LAXBUR wrote:

Your interpretation. The “tiny” recent adds are West Coast flying. I mean they had a plane painted “Most West Coast”. Seems pretty in line. And as others have discussed these adds should have come after the merger instead of SAN-(some mid size mid America airport). I don’t believe the merger was sold as “California to mid-America.” And while a cut is not a good thing it isn’t as if they can’t add these flights back at some point as they better develop their California business. But I understand that like many on here people seem to relish the idea of smaller airlines failing. Very strange.


Ok, this is the last time I'm going to engage with you as things like "facts" and "data" apparently don't mean anything to you. If you look through my posts, I'm actually a huge fan of AS, but just extremely disappointed they didn't stay the course with their plan and figure out WHY these things weren't working instead of totally abandoning them.

If you actually a) understood what their plan was at the time of the merger close or b) understood any of the O&D data, I think you might think otherwise. I am not going to go back and dig out all the materials they published at investor day and so forth, but their stated strategy was to be the most relevant carrier on the West Coast. They (not me) defined that as serving the places that people wanted to go, or in other words, the largest markets. You can see that if you look at the passengers per day each way (PDEW) in each of the 51 markets they started -

Market PDEW
BURSJC 845
HNLLAX 1,772
HAVLAX 29
LAXMEX 1,355
LAXOGG 915
LAXPAE 0
LAXPHL 1,142
LAXSJC 1,263
PAEPSP 0
ABQSAN 240
AUSSAN 423
BWISAN 534
DALSAN 381
ELPSAN 101
EWRSAN 620
GEGSAN 162
MCISAN 297
MEXSAN 17
MSPSAN 528
OMASAN 144
PAESAN
SANSJC 1,389
SANSMF 1,319
SANSTL 298
ABQSFO 142
BNASFO 306
BWISFO 362
DENSFO 1,481
INDSFO 251
KOASFO 220
MCISFO 202
MCOSFO 553
MEXSFO 518
MSPSFO 798
MSYSFO 319
PAESFO 4
PHLSFO 786
PHXSFO 892
RDUSFO 383
SFOSNA 856
EWRSJC 184
JFKSJC 322
PAESJC
SJCSNA 1,131
SJCTUS 121
KOASMF 54
SJDSMF 95
ABQSNA 90
PAESNA 0
RNOSNA 53
SNASTS 61
Average 489

Then compare that to the ones they went into -

Market PDEW
GEGLAX 175
GEGSFO 79
LAXRDM 86
RDMSAN 39
RDMSFO 86
BOILAX 240
LAXMSO 55
ANCSFO 79
Average 105

So, that they are exiting the most relevant markets and going into smaller, less relevant markets to people on the west coast is not my "interpretation". It is fact. As much as you may hate to admit it, some "mid America airport" like MCI to SFO or OMA to SAN is more than 2x as large as RDM to SFO or SAN. Sorry the facts don't line up with your world view.

Sure, AS can come back to these markets some time down the road, but all they have done is shown UA and WN that they will bail as soon as those carriers make life difficult for them. So what do you think is going to happen if AS does go back? UA and WN play nice this time? No, they'll get what they got before plus some.

And that's why I say future growth is limited. Beyond the PNW they have shown they can't compete.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:53 pm

global1 wrote:
My opinion is my opinion. It does not need to be "new" or "unique", nor is it intended to be nasty in any way..
I have nothing but high regard for Alaska and their product.
The industry today is a different world than 10 yers ago, let alone 20.
I'm just saying now there are very few partners on the dance floor and, compared to what's out there, Delta is the one that got away.


Pretty naive to think Delta with all its might would have been happy just partnering with Alaska in the long run. They would have tried to take them out one way or another.

Anyways the merger hysteria is annoying. Especially when this recent round of nonsense was sparked from a change in mileage earn and redemption. Not the codeshare or “feed”. The number of revenue passengers won’t be changing for the time being as the codeshare remains. Yes, losing a redemption partner is disappointing. Yet people are on here, “they have no feed now.” Nothing is changing in that regard. Hard to tell if folks on here have comprehension problems or like to make stuff up to fit their narrative. I think it is the latter.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4850
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:02 pm

NOT merging, but partnering with B6 would provide alot more national coverage for FFs. Both kind of need help in the areas the other is strong. Would make a good team. NOT merger
 
global1
Posts: 520
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:31 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:05 pm

My point is that at the end of the day AS will become part of something else.

Delta will not be the one, but you may well look back and wish you had said "yes to the dress".
Last edited by global1 on Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:05 pm

TW787 wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

Your interpretation. The “tiny” recent adds are West Coast flying. I mean they had a plane painted “Most West Coast”. Seems pretty in line. And as others have discussed these adds should have come after the merger instead of SAN-(some mid size mid America airport). I don’t believe the merger was sold as “California to mid-America.” And while a cut is not a good thing it isn’t as if they can’t add these flights back at some point as they better develop their California business. But I understand that like many on here people seem to relish the idea of smaller airlines failing. Very strange.


Ok, this is the last time I'm going to engage with you as things like "facts" and "data" apparently don't mean anything to you. If you look through my posts, I'm actually a huge fan of AS, but just extremely disappointed they didn't stay the course with their plan and figure out WHY these things weren't working instead of totally abandoning them.

If you actually a) understood what their plan was at the time of the merger close or b) understood any of the O&D data, I think you might think otherwise. I am not going to go back and dig out all the materials they published at investor day and so forth, but their stated strategy was to be the most relevant carrier on the West Coast. They (not me) defined that as serving the places that people wanted to go, or in other words, the largest markets. You can see that if you look at the passengers per day each way (PDEW) in each of the 51 markets they started -

Market PDEW
BURSJC 845
HNLLAX 1,772
HAVLAX 29
LAXMEX 1,355
LAXOGG 915
LAXPAE 0
LAXPHL 1,142
LAXSJC 1,263
PAEPSP 0
ABQSAN 240
AUSSAN 423
BWISAN 534
DALSAN 381
ELPSAN 101
EWRSAN 620
GEGSAN 162
MCISAN 297
MEXSAN 17
MSPSAN 528
OMASAN 144
PAESAN
SANSJC 1,389
SANSMF 1,319
SANSTL 298
ABQSFO 142
BNASFO 306
BWISFO 362
DENSFO 1,481
INDSFO 251
KOASFO 220
MCISFO 202
MCOSFO 553
MEXSFO 518
MSPSFO 798
MSYSFO 319
PAESFO 4
PHLSFO 786
PHXSFO 892
RDUSFO 383
SFOSNA 856
EWRSJC 184
JFKSJC 322
PAESJC
SJCSNA 1,131
SJCTUS 121
KOASMF 54
SJDSMF 95
ABQSNA 90
PAESNA 0
RNOSNA 53
SNASTS 61
Average 489

Then compare that to the ones they went into -

Market PDEW
GEGLAX 175
GEGSFO 79
LAXRDM 86
RDMSAN 39
RDMSFO 86
BOILAX 240
LAXMSO 55
ANCSFO 79
Average 105

So, that they are exiting the most relevant markets and going into smaller, less relevant markets to people on the west coast is not my "interpretation". It is fact. As much as you may hate to admit it, some "mid America airport" like MCI to SFO or OMA to SAN is more than 2x as large as RDM to SFO or SAN. Sorry the facts don't line up with your world view.

Sure, AS can come back to these markets some time down the road, but all they have done is shown UA and WN that they will bail as soon as those carriers make life difficult for them. So what do you think is going to happen if AS does go back? UA and WN play nice this time? No, they'll get what they got before plus some.

And that's why I say future growth is limited. Beyond the PNW they have shown they can't compete.


You can be dismissive and post a bunch of data to make yourself look smart but you know as well as I do PDEW isn’t the official barometer here as it doesn’t take into account the competition on the route or the connecting passengers on the plane. Lots of people can fly to an airport but if there are more seats than people flying that isn’t a profitable venture. You’re confusing “relevance” with profit. That was the problem with VX in the first place. They flew a bunch of vanity routes that had heavy competition. Yes more people may fly to Kansas City, but there’s less competition and more opportunities for connections say on Spokane to SFO. I think you have the confused world view.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:13 pm

global1 wrote:
My point is that at the end of the day AS will become part of something else.

Delta will not be the one, but you may well look back and wish you had said "yes to the dress".


Neat. Again, same story for last 20+ years. Could it happen? Sure. But I’m for competition and options. There is a fetish for mergers on here. Nauseating.
 
global1
Posts: 520
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:17 pm

Time will tell.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3797
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:06 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
Lots of people can fly to an airport but if there are more seats than people flying that isn’t a profitable venture. You’re confusing “relevance” with profit. That was the problem with VX in the first place. They flew a bunch of vanity routes that had heavy competition.


VX entered DFW in December 2010 back when AA and UA were the only other airlines serving California destinations nonstop from DFW. Since then, VX relocated its Dallas/Fort Worth operations to DAL after the repeal of the Wright Amendment in October 2014, DL re-added DFW-LAX nonstop service back in November 2014, NK added nonstop service to California from DFW, and WN added nonstop service out of DAL to most of its California destinations after the repeal of the Wright Amendment.
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:15 pm

LAXBUR wrote:

You can be dismissive and post a bunch of data to make yourself look smart but you know as well as I do PDEW isn’t the official barometer here as it doesn’t take into account the competition on the route or the connecting passengers on the plane. Lots of people can fly to an airport but if there are more seats than people flying that isn’t a profitable venture. You’re confusing “relevance” with profit. That was the problem with VX in the first place. They flew a bunch of vanity routes that had heavy competition. Yes more people may fly to Kansas City, but there’s less competition and more opportunities for connections say on Spokane to SFO. I think you have the confused world view.


Sorry to let the data get in the way of your good story. Since you called out MCI and GEG - hate to tell you but GEG is more overcapacity vs. the demand there than MCI is.

PDEW Daily Seats Seat to Pax Ratio
MCISFO 202 252 1.25
GEGSFO 78 144 1.85

And BTW the seats I used in the above are BEFORE AS adds the seats in GEG. And all the connections that they can get via SFO they can get via SEA or PDX, so nothing net new there, and if anything might hurt the existing.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1469
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:58 am

GSPSPOT wrote:
Who initiated this change - AS or AA? Doesn't seem to benefit either airline. AA really could use the AS network as a de-facto presence in the Northwest, since their current presence is largely hub-only flying.



They should make there own West coast North-south and PNW focus city. The AS partnership is and has always been just ok at best. They can Look to DL for how to grow organically if they don't know how. Way over due.
 
Detroit313
Posts: 551
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 5:21 pm

Alaska is getting more and more isolated. Not sure how long they can survive on their own.
 
Prost
Posts: 2586
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:00 pm

I keep beating the dead horse, but AS still has better financials than AA/US/DL. My read on the market is there is room for a carrier like AS and they are doing what niche carriers do successfully.
 
kdeg00
Posts: 153
Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2004 5:41 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:01 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Alaska is getting more and more isolated. Not sure how long they can survive on their own.


I would disagree about the isolation. I can get pretty much anywhere in the country either direct from PDX or with a stop in SEA or SFO, so the former tie-ins with DL and AA haven't had much impact from my perspective. The ability to code-share onto CX, BA (+Finnair and Iberia), EK and QF pretty well cover the rest of my travel needs, and don't force me onto an AA product.
AS 75K, DL Gold, BA Silver
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
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Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:42 pm

Prost wrote:
I keep beating the dead horse, but AS still has better financials than AA/US/DL. My read on the market is there is room for a carrier like AS and they are doing what niche carriers do successfully.


Don’t worry. You’ll be ignored. Folks on here want to paint a picture of a dying airline that isn’t making money. Of course, that isn’t the truth.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:50 pm

TW787 wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

You can be dismissive and post a bunch of data to make yourself look smart but you know as well as I do PDEW isn’t the official barometer here as it doesn’t take into account the competition on the route or the connecting passengers on the plane. Lots of people can fly to an airport but if there are more seats than people flying that isn’t a profitable venture. You’re confusing “relevance” with profit. That was the problem with VX in the first place. They flew a bunch of vanity routes that had heavy competition. Yes more people may fly to Kansas City, but there’s less competition and more opportunities for connections say on Spokane to SFO. I think you have the confused world view.


Sorry to let the data get in the way of your good story. Since you called out MCI and GEG - hate to tell you but GEG is more overcapacity vs. the demand there than MCI is.

PDEW Daily Seats Seat to Pax Ratio
MCISFO 202 252 1.25
GEGSFO 78 144 1.85

And BTW the seats I used in the above are BEFORE AS adds the seats in GEG. And all the connections that they can get via SFO they can get via SEA or PDX, so nothing net new there, and if anything might hurt the existing.


I’m glad you don’t run an airline. Alaska makes money remember? Even after an expensive merger. Y’all leave that out of your little stories. Again, your cool little numbers don’t show the whole equation. United has a small presence in GEG. Only two flights to SFO. So that is likely why AS decided to add GEG-SFO. To take some O&D because they have FFs in GEG UA does not. AS also does not have any GEG-Bay Area flights at present. So this may take some folks from WN who can now fly Alaska to the Bay. On the other hand AS is not very well known in the Midwest. So it would make sense that they would be moving flights to places where they can better steal market share. So yeah, just copying and pasting numbers doesn’t make you an expert.
 
LAXBUR
Posts: 412
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:55 pm

grbauc wrote:
GSPSPOT wrote:
Who initiated this change - AS or AA? Doesn't seem to benefit either airline. AA really could use the AS network as a de-facto presence in the Northwest, since their current presence is largely hub-only flying.



They should make there own West coast North-south and PNW focus city. The AS partnership is and has always been just ok at best. They can Look to DL for how to grow organically if they don't know how. Way over due.


Yeah that’s a good way to drive AA quickly into the ground. The only other place to focus would be PDX. That wouldn’t work out well. AA does not have a great reputation like AS or DL.
 
WingsOfLove
Posts: 223
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:54 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:05 pm

kdeg00 wrote:
The ability to code-share onto CX, BA (+Finnair and Iberia), EK and QF pretty well cover the rest of my travel needs, and don't force me onto an AA product.


AS has done a great job building international partnerships, initially to fend off DL, but ultimately to stay independent.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:23 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
grbauc wrote:
GSPSPOT wrote:
Who initiated this change - AS or AA? Doesn't seem to benefit either airline. AA really could use the AS network as a de-facto presence in the Northwest, since their current presence is largely hub-only flying.



They should make there own West coast North-south and PNW focus city. The AS partnership is and has always been just ok at best. They can Look to DL for how to grow organically if they don't know how. Way over due.


Yeah that’s a good way to drive AA quickly into the ground. The only other place to focus would be PDX. That wouldn’t work out well. AA does not have a great reputation like AS or DL.



Yeah yeah I know Delta and AS are the only ones that can grow domestic organically at scale.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:38 pm

jplatts wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
Lots of people can fly to an airport but if there are more seats than people flying that isn’t a profitable venture. You’re confusing “relevance” with profit. That was the problem with VX in the first place. They flew a bunch of vanity routes that had heavy competition.


VX entered DFW in December 2010 back when AA and UA were the only other airlines serving California destinations nonstop from DFW. Since then, VX relocated its Dallas/Fort Worth operations to DAL after the repeal of the Wright Amendment in October 2014, DL re-added DFW-LAX nonstop service back in November 2014, NK added nonstop service to California from DFW, and WN added nonstop service out of DAL to most of its California destinations after the repeal of the Wright Amendment.



I swear you’re an AI robot another post that really doesn’t match are relate.
 
umichman
Posts: 150
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:01 pm

aeromoe wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
global1 wrote:

I believe spurning DL will ultimately prove to have been a major strategic error.


How did Alaska spurn Delta?


As a previous AS frequent flyer here, DL showed up in AS flight choices when I was searching for potential itineraries on AS's website or app. Not any more as of a year or two ago...not sure exactly when. That's qualifies as a spurn in my opinion.

Currently AA shows up with AS options on the website or app.

Moe


Try SEA- FNT/LAN/MBS on AS website. I see multiple options involving DL flights. Now since there is no longer a codeshare agreement these are all broken fares. But it does show the interline relationship is still in place and that AS will still list DL flights when it can't get you somewhere easily on it's own or AA's metal.
 
User avatar
aeromoe
Posts: 1344
Joined: Fri Dec 08, 2006 8:34 am

Re: AS & AA Seperation (Essentially) Coming March 1, 2020

Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:20 pm

umichman wrote:
aeromoe wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

How did Alaska spurn Delta?


As a previous AS frequent flyer here, DL showed up in AS flight choices when I was searching for potential itineraries on AS's website or app. Not any more as of a year or two ago...not sure exactly when. That's qualifies as a spurn in my opinion.

Currently AA shows up with AS options on the website or app.

Moe


Try SEA- FNT/LAN/MBS on AS website. I see multiple options involving DL flights. Now since there is no longer a codeshare agreement these are all broken fares. But it does show the interline relationship is still in place and that AS will still list DL flights when it can't get you somewhere easily on it's own or AA's metal.


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