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PANAMsterdam
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 8:37 am

Sad but not unexpected. THAI wasn't doing very well before the crisis, and this was the push over the edge.

Does anyone know something about their (un)profitable routes or can anyone guess which routes/planes are likely to go? They had planned quite a few retirements for 2024 but I think it is safe to say that their 747's are the now first to go and I wouldn't be surprised if their A380's will never take the skies again too.
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
airhansa
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 8:50 am

How's Malaysian Airlines doing in the current climate. Surely another airline awaiting collapse?
 
chonetsao
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 8:57 am

PANAMsterdam wrote:
Sad but not unexpected. THAI wasn't doing very well before the crisis, and this was the push over the edge.

Does anyone know something about their (un)profitable routes or can anyone guess which routes/planes are likely to go? They had planned quite a few retirements for 2024 but I think it is safe to say that their 747's are the now first to go and I wouldn't be surprised if their A380's will never take the skies again too.


I think 6 B777-220, 6 B777-200ER and 6 B777-300 (non-ER), together with B744 will be retired. That leaves Thai with A330, A350, A380, B777-300ER and B787s. With the Thai pride (face saving), I think A380 will be kept for few more years. The remain two questions are: 1, what Thai is going to do with its B788 and B789, they are such a small fleet. and 2, what will happen to the A330s?
 
PANAMsterdam
Posts: 249
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 9:06 am

chonetsao wrote:
I think 6 B777-220, 6 B777-200ER and 6 B777-300 (non-ER), together with B744 will be retired. That leaves Thai with A330, A350, A380, B777-300ER and B787s. With the Thai pride (face saving), I think A380 will be kept for few more years. The remain two questions are: 1, what Thai is going to do with its B788 and B789, they are such a small fleet. and 2, what will happen to the A330s?


Yeah the 2 789's have raised my eyebrows as well, i mean it's nice for those two dreamliners to keep each other company but fleet wise it's not a decision that makes a lot of sense.

And the A380 pride aspect... i agree, although pride has made many bad decisions in the aviation industry over the years. I hope the coronavirus will kick pride out of every boardroom and that it will make place for sense and wisdom.
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
VSMUT
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 9:17 am

chonetsao wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
Sad but not unexpected. THAI wasn't doing very well before the crisis, and this was the push over the edge.

Does anyone know something about their (un)profitable routes or can anyone guess which routes/planes are likely to go? They had planned quite a few retirements for 2024 but I think it is safe to say that their 747's are the now first to go and I wouldn't be surprised if their A380's will never take the skies again too.


I think 6 B777-220, 6 B777-200ER and 6 B777-300 (non-ER), together with B744 will be retired. That leaves Thai with A330, A350, A380, B777-300ER and B787s. With the Thai pride (face saving), I think A380 will be kept for few more years. The remain two questions are: 1, what Thai is going to do with its B788 and B789, they are such a small fleet. and 2, what will happen to the A330s?


The 787s are all leased. FWIW, the A330s are all pretty young and look like they are owned by the company.

IMO, they will keep the A330s as regional workhorses and shed the 787s. The 787 fleet is just not big enough and being leased they can get rid of them easily through a bankruptcy.

A more interesting question in my opinion is what they would do regarding the 777-300ER and A350-900. It looks like 7 of the 12 A350-900 are leased compared to 8 of the 14 777-300ER. Going forwards, the Airbus is surely the better fit for fetching tourists in Europe, but the latter is likely the cheapest to retain.


PANAMsterdam wrote:
Yeah the 2 789's have raised my eyebrows as well, i mean it's nice for those two dreamliners to keep each other company but fleet wise it's not a decision that makes a lot of sense.


I think the plan was to grow the fleet over time. Cash strapped airlines can't afford massive 30 plane orders in one go.
 
LHA320
Posts: 106
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 9:22 am

VSMUT wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
Sad but not unexpected. THAI wasn't doing very well before the crisis, and this was the push over the edge.

Does anyone know something about their (un)profitable routes or can anyone guess which routes/planes are likely to go? They had planned quite a few retirements for 2024 but I think it is safe to say that their 747's are the now first to go and I wouldn't be surprised if their A380's will never take the skies again too.


I think 6 B777-220, 6 B777-200ER and 6 B777-300 (non-ER), together with B744 will be retired. That leaves Thai with A330, A350, A380, B777-300ER and B787s. With the Thai pride (face saving), I think A380 will be kept for few more years. The remain two questions are: 1, what Thai is going to do with its B788 and B789, they are such a small fleet. and 2, what will happen to the A330s?


The 787s are all leased. FWIW, the A330s are all pretty young and look like they are owned by the company.

IMO, they will keep the A330s as regional workhorses and shed the 787s. The 787 fleet is just not big enough and being leased they can get rid of them easily through a bankruptcy.

A more interesting question in my opinion is what they would do regarding the 777-300ER and A350-900. It looks like 7 of the 12 A350-900 are leased compared to 8 of the 14 777-300ER. Going forwards, the former is surely the better fit for fetching tourists in Europe, but the latter is likely the cheapest to retain.


PANAMsterdam wrote:
Yeah the 2 789's have raised my eyebrows as well, i mean it's nice for those two dreamliners to keep each other company but fleet wise it's not a decision that makes a lot of sense.


I think the plan was to grow the fleet over time. Cash strapped airlines can't afford massive 30 plane orders in one go.


I could think of a massive capacity reduction with the bankruptcy. Only A330, A350 and 77W left. Will reduct the fleet to two pilot pools and three engine types to maintain (although 2 are RR Trents). Maybe add some Thai Smile A320s to the mix for some routes.
AB6 - A319 - A320 - A321 - A333 - A388 - AT42 - 733 - 734 - 735 - 73H - 738 - 752 - 753 - 763 - 772 - DC10 - MD83
 
VSMUT
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 9:25 am

LHA320 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
chonetsao wrote:

I think 6 B777-220, 6 B777-200ER and 6 B777-300 (non-ER), together with B744 will be retired. That leaves Thai with A330, A350, A380, B777-300ER and B787s. With the Thai pride (face saving), I think A380 will be kept for few more years. The remain two questions are: 1, what Thai is going to do with its B788 and B789, they are such a small fleet. and 2, what will happen to the A330s?


The 787s are all leased. FWIW, the A330s are all pretty young and look like they are owned by the company.

IMO, they will keep the A330s as regional workhorses and shed the 787s. The 787 fleet is just not big enough and being leased they can get rid of them easily through a bankruptcy.

A more interesting question in my opinion is what they would do regarding the 777-300ER and A350-900. It looks like 7 of the 12 A350-900 are leased compared to 8 of the 14 777-300ER. Going forwards, the former is surely the better fit for fetching tourists in Europe, but the latter is likely the cheapest to retain.


PANAMsterdam wrote:
Yeah the 2 789's have raised my eyebrows as well, i mean it's nice for those two dreamliners to keep each other company but fleet wise it's not a decision that makes a lot of sense.


I think the plan was to grow the fleet over time. Cash strapped airlines can't afford massive 30 plane orders in one go.


I could think of a massive capacity reduction with the bankruptcy. Only A330, A350 and 77W left. Will reduct the fleet to two pilot pools and three engine types to maintain (although 2 are RR Trents). Maybe add some Thai Smile A320s to the mix for some routes.


I could honestly see it reduced to just 2 types. A330 + A350 or 777. The Thai tourism industry is going to take a massive battering from this, Europeans won't be returning en masse for several years.
 
chonetsao
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 9:28 am

LHA320 wrote:
I could think of a massive capacity reduction with the bankruptcy. Only A330, A350 and 77W left. Will reduct the fleet to two pilot pools and three engine types to maintain (although 2 are RR Trents). Maybe add some Thai Smile A320s to the mix for some routes.


I would not write the A380 off yet not only for face saving. It is said some certain VVVVVVVVIP and his many wives and girlfriends enjoy the ride to his real residences in Germany on the A380. If Thai is going to survive in this amazing country, A380 will be kept as long as this VVVVVVVVIP wants to.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 9:29 am

I guess we had to expect this, are they flying any international routes at all? Must be haemorrhaging badly. The realist in me suggests they'll slim their fleet down to 77Ws, A350s and A330s, though it'd hardly be a bad move to keep the 787s, only having 2 789s is a bit odd, but their 787 fleet is large enough overall. If they get back on their feet then the A321neo would be a solid choice, maybe incorporating Thai Smile completely.
 
Amsterdam
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 9:37 am

Whats up with these Chapter 11’s.
So basically companies can not really stop existing?
 
chonetsao
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 9:40 am

VSMUT wrote:
I could honestly see it reduced to just 2 types. A330 + A350 or 777. The Thai tourism industry is going to take a massive battering from this, Europeans won't be returning en masse for several years.


Logical things does not happen in Thailand and TG. The clue lies in their fleet planning and the stamp collection tactics. You need to understand TG and Thailand state owned business from their own perspectives. Often, whomever calling the shots on TG is not aviation experts nor business minded people. B777-300ER will be kept for higher capacity routes like LHR and Scandinavia as well as trunk Asian routes previously served by B777-200 and B777-300 (non-ER). A380 will be kept for Germany. A350 will be kept for the secondary European and Australasia routes. Many of the A330 will be kept too for domestic or ASEAN routes. However, that is too logical and TG won't choose the logical path, as the managers' vision is often out of the window when the big shot in State Enterprise Supervisory Board and Aviation Authorities come in. And not to mention the continuous interferences from the Royal Court and military (don't forget the current PM is a general). If things are simple, THAI should be allowed to go through bankruptcy many times before and have got rid of their aging fleet a decade ago. Things are complicated.

Plus, do not count your weight on European tourists. If you have been to Thailand last 2-5 years, you would have noticed that the mass tourism in Thailand are Chinese, Korean, Indian, Pakistani, ASEAN and Russians. European tourists abandoned Thailand long time ago and they count very little in overall Thailand tourists numbers.
 
mmo
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 10:07 am

I wouldn't call Executive Traveller a reliable source.

Flight Global says Thai is denying the rumour.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/t ... 17.article
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
VSMUT
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 10:49 am

chonetsao wrote:
Plus, do not count your weight on European tourists. If you have been to Thailand last 2-5 years, you would have noticed that the mass tourism in Thailand are Chinese, Korean, Indian, Pakistani, ASEAN and Russians. European tourists abandoned Thailand long time ago and they count very little in overall Thailand tourists numbers.


I am well aware that many tourists come from Asia. You do not need 777s and A350s to reach those, so my point still stands.
 
ohsopc
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 10:51 am

I think per the latest news today bankruptcy protection will happen... and it seems that most of the public and most staff excl. union leaders seems to feel that bankruptcy protection is the most logical step.

Keep in mind that this is a bankruptcy protection a-la Chapter 11 and not liquidation of TG asset.

As to what plane types they will keep is anyone's best guess. A lot of the older planes are fully owned while the newer ones are leased.

A380 - Prior to COVID-19, TG seems to have no problem filling up their 6 A380s and have publicly stated that these planes were to remain in the fleet

B747 - I think this bankruptcy will spell the end of this type for TG.


This may perhaps give a glimpse of what TG's future network maybe like.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-08may20/
 
chonetsao
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 11:01 am

VSMUT wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Plus, do not count your weight on European tourists. If you have been to Thailand last 2-5 years, you would have noticed that the mass tourism in Thailand are Chinese, Korean, Indian, Pakistani, ASEAN and Russians. European tourists abandoned Thailand long time ago and they count very little in overall Thailand tourists numbers.


I am well aware that many tourists come from Asia. You do not need 777s and A350s to reach those, so my point still stands.


Yes you do. Look at Thai's schedule pre COVID-19 and now. B777s are used on many Asian destinations. Even A380 is sent to Tokyo. B744 is even used on BKK-HKT sector. After all, the capacity used on B777-200/200ER/300 to many Asian destinations need to be replaced by the equivalent. B777-300ER is perfect for those missions in-between long haul flights.
 
chonetsao
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 11:04 am

ohsopc wrote:
I think per the latest news today bankruptcy protection will happen... and it seems that most of the public and most staff excl. union leaders seems to feel that bankruptcy protection is the most logical step.

Keep in mind that this is a bankruptcy protection a-la Chapter 11 and not liquidation of TG asset.

As to what plane types they will keep is anyone's best guess. A lot of the older planes are fully owned while the newer ones are leased.

A380 - Prior to COVID-19, TG seems to have no problem filling up their 6 A380s and have publicly stated that these planes were to remain in the fleet

B747 - I think this bankruptcy will spell the end of this type for TG.


This may perhaps give a glimpse of what TG's future network maybe like.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-08may20/


Thank you for the information. Looks like B777-200 and B744 are gone from the schedule with limited B777-200ER and B777-300 (non-ER) still around.

Interesting to see they kept BNE with B777-200ER, it was an A350 route.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 11:08 am

Amsterdam wrote:
Whats up with these Chapter 11’s.
So basically companies can not really stop existing?


It's a subjective decision of what brings more value to shareholders - reorganization to keep some cash flowing, or shutting down and liquidating.
 
dredgy
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 11:19 am

VSMUT wrote:
LHA320 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Europeans won't be returning en masse for several years.


Australians will be quicker though I'd reckon, but even I'm not gonna be super optimistic about Thai's future (though I am assuming they'll survive).

Thai, along with Qantas, are airlines I credit with helping my fear of flying as they played host to the best flights ever in my youth!
I was hoping to fly their A380 in business or first but kept putting it off and going Singapore or Ethiopian instead! I'll be prioritising them now I think.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 11:29 am

chonetsao wrote:
Interesting to see they kept BNE with B777-200ER, it was an A350 route.

Nah BNE was mostly 772ER or A333 route, don't think A350 made it thru and if it did it surely wasn't for long.

Once upon a time it was a 772A route!

Michael
 
dcaviation
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 11:53 am

chonetsao wrote:
I would not write the A380 off yet not only for face saving. It is said some certain VVVVVVVVIP and his many wives and girlfriends enjoy the ride to his real residences in Germany on the A380. If Thai is going to survive in this amazing country, A380 will be kept as long as this VVVVVVVVIP wants to.


chonetsao wrote:
[
Logical things does not happen in Thailand and TG. The clue lies in their fleet planning and the stamp collection tactics. You need to understand TG and Thailand state owned business from their own perspectives. Often, whomever calling the shots on TG is not aviation experts nor business minded people. A380 will be kept for Germany..


It shows how much knowledge you have on the Thai Airways. MUC flights are on B77W not A380. So stop spreading the idiotic fake news that they fly A380 for the king. The 380 flies to FRA because of the belly cargo. Check the numbers and then you will know.
 
VHOGU
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 11:55 am

eamondzhang wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Interesting to see they kept BNE with B777-200ER, it was an A350 route.

Nah BNE was mostly 772ER or A333 route, don't think A350 made it thru and if it did it surely wasn't for long.

Once upon a time it was a 772A route!

Michael

It’s had 772A and 773A, 77W also 788. Not sure it’s ever been 330. It used to be MD11 and 744 back in the day.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 1:15 pm

VHOGU wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Interesting to see they kept BNE with B777-200ER, it was an A350 route.

Nah BNE was mostly 772ER or A333 route, don't think A350 made it thru and if it did it surely wasn't for long.

Once upon a time it was a 772A route!

Michael

It’s had 772A and 773A, 77W also 788. Not sure it’s ever been 330. It used to be MD11 and 744 back in the day.

Good point, think I mixed up with PER which is mostly an A333 route. But surely it wasn't A350 route.

I'm also not aware of any 77W movements - perhaps a one-off?

Michael
 
fessor
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 1:43 pm

chonetsao wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
I could honestly see it reduced to just 2 types. A330 + A350 or 777. The Thai tourism industry is going to take a massive battering from this, Europeans won't be returning en masse for several years.


Logical things does not happen in Thailand and TG. The clue lies in their fleet planning and the stamp collection tactics. You need to understand TG and Thailand state owned business from their own perspectives. Often, whomever calling the shots on TG is not aviation experts nor business minded people. B777-300ER will be kept for higher capacity routes like LHR and Scandinavia as well as trunk Asian routes previously served by B777-200 and B777-300 (non-ER). A380 will be kept for Germany. A350 will be kept for the secondary European and Australasia routes. Many of the A330 will be kept too for domestic or ASEAN routes. However, that is too logical and TG won't choose the logical path, as the managers' vision is often out of the window when the big shot in State Enterprise Supervisory Board and Aviation Authorities come in. And not to mention the continuous interferences from the Royal Court and military (don't forget the current PM is a general). If things are simple, THAI should be allowed to go through bankruptcy many times before and have got rid of their aging fleet a decade ago. Things are complicated.

Plus, do not count your weight on European tourists. If you have been to Thailand last 2-5 years, you would have noticed that the mass tourism in Thailand are Chinese, Korean, Indian, Pakistani, ASEAN and Russians. European tourists abandoned Thailand long time ago and they count very little in overall Thailand tourists numbers.


The number of European tourists is actually growing in Thailand but they go away from pattaya and to a lesser extent Phuket and go to smaller and less crowded places.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 1:44 pm

chonetsao wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Plus, do not count your weight on European tourists. If you have been to Thailand last 2-5 years, you would have noticed that the mass tourism in Thailand are Chinese, Korean, Indian, Pakistani, ASEAN and Russians. European tourists abandoned Thailand long time ago and they count very little in overall Thailand tourists numbers.


A bit misleading according to 2018 statistics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in ... ationality . Americans and Europeans still bring in more tourists than ASEAN (though not sure about Malaysia), and Pakistan isn't anywhere in the top 25 countries whereas many European countries are.

But I agree that Europe isn't going to be the source of economic growth in East Asia. HK bounced back within one year after SARS, the rest of the East bounced back the following year. Considering that the pandemic has hit the West far worse than the East, and the recession also seems to be worse in the West, it's going to be the Japanese/Korean/Chinese that pull Thailand out of the glums. India will probably have the strongest economic growth in 2020 of any major economy and help buoy the surrounding region (Sri Lanka basically so not that much impact), but Russia appears to be badly hit by the pandemic to the point that most of China's cases appear to originate from Russia nowadays.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 2:10 pm

LHA320 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
chonetsao wrote:

I think 6 B777-220, 6 B777-200ER and 6 B777-300 (non-ER), together with B744 will be retired. That leaves Thai with A330, A350, A380, B777-300ER and B787s. With the Thai pride (face saving), I think A380 will be kept for few more years. The remain two questions are: 1, what Thai is going to do with its B788 and B789, they are such a small fleet. and 2, what will happen to the A330s?


The 787s are all leased. FWIW, the A330s are all pretty young and look like they are owned by the company.

IMO, they will keep the A330s as regional workhorses and shed the 787s. The 787 fleet is just not big enough and being leased they can get rid of them easily through a bankruptcy.

A more interesting question in my opinion is what they would do regarding the 777-300ER and A350-900. It looks like 7 of the 12 A350-900 are leased compared to 8 of the 14 777-300ER. Going forwards, the former is surely the better fit for fetching tourists in Europe, but the latter is likely the cheapest to retain.


PANAMsterdam wrote:
Yeah the 2 789's have raised my eyebrows as well, i mean it's nice for those two dreamliners to keep each other company but fleet wise it's not a decision that makes a lot of sense.


I think the plan was to grow the fleet over time. Cash strapped airlines can't afford massive 30 plane orders in one go.


I could think of a massive capacity reduction with the bankruptcy. Only A330, A350 and 77W left. Will reduct the fleet to two pilot pools and three engine types to maintain (although 2 are RR Trents). Maybe add some Thai Smile A320s to the mix for some routes.

The fleet simplification must be brutal. If Thai keeps the A380s, we know that they won't be fully reformed.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm

eamondzhang wrote:
VHOGU wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
Nah BNE was mostly 772ER or A333 route, don't think A350 made it thru and if it did it surely wasn't for long.

Once upon a time it was a 772A route!

Michael

It’s had 772A and 773A, 77W also 788. Not sure it’s ever been 330. It used to be MD11 and 744 back in the day.

Good point, think I mixed up with PER which is mostly an A333 route. But surely it wasn't A350 route.

I'm also not aware of any 77W movements - perhaps a one-off?

Michael


BNE was a 77W for a while in the last 2-3 years.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Mon May 18, 2020 8:23 pm

BNE was 772, then 773, then 77W, then 788, then 772. Route has been under the microscope for awhile, but still remains.
 
Luftymatt
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 10:11 pm

VSMUT wrote:
LHA320 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

The 787s are all leased. FWIW, the A330s are all pretty young and look like they are owned by the company.

IMO, they will keep the A330s as regional workhorses and shed the 787s. The 787 fleet is just not big enough and being leased they can get rid of them easily through a bankruptcy.

A more interesting question in my opinion is what they would do regarding the 777-300ER and A350-900. It looks like 7 of the 12 A350-900 are leased compared to 8 of the 14 777-300ER. Going forwards, the former is surely the better fit for fetching tourists in Europe, but the latter is likely the cheapest to retain.




I think the plan was to grow the fleet over time. Cash strapped airlines can't afford massive 30 plane orders in one go.


I could think of a massive capacity reduction with the bankruptcy. Only A330, A350 and 77W left. Will reduct the fleet to two pilot pools and three engine types to maintain (although 2 are RR Trents). Maybe add some Thai Smile A320s to the mix for some routes.


I could honestly see it reduced to just 2 types. A330 + A350 or 777. The Thai tourism industry is going to take a massive battering from this, Europeans won't be returning en masse for several years.


That's quite a prediction, what do you base that on? Surly how aviation and travel in general is affected will be based on when a vaccine and cure comes out, which according to quite a few news sources recently and announcements from scientists isn't going to be that far off.
chase the sun
 
VSMUT
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Mon May 18, 2020 10:20 pm

Luftymatt wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
LHA320 wrote:

I could think of a massive capacity reduction with the bankruptcy. Only A330, A350 and 77W left. Will reduct the fleet to two pilot pools and three engine types to maintain (although 2 are RR Trents). Maybe add some Thai Smile A320s to the mix for some routes.


I could honestly see it reduced to just 2 types. A330 + A350 or 777. The Thai tourism industry is going to take a massive battering from this, Europeans won't be returning en masse for several years.


That's quite a prediction, what do you base that on? Surly how aviation and travel in general is affected will be based on when a vaccine and cure comes out, which according to quite a few news sources recently and announcements from scientists isn't going to be that far off.


Keep dreaming. Even if a vaccine were to be available tomorrow, it would take several years to manufacture enough vaccines to vaccinate the entire worlds population. Conveniently, we also had a habit of outsourcing our medicine production to China, so guess which population of 1.4 billion are first in line...

We are in this for the long term.
 
F100Flyer
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Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Tue May 19, 2020 12:10 am

eamondzhang wrote:
VHOGU wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
Nah BNE was mostly 772ER or A333 route, don't think A350 made it thru and if it did it surely wasn't for long.

Once upon a time it was a 772A route!

Michael

It’s had 772A and 773A, 77W also 788. Not sure it’s ever been 330. It used to be MD11 and 744 back in the day.

Good point, think I mixed up with PER which is mostly an A333 route. But surely it wasn't A350 route.

I'm also not aware of any 77W movements - perhaps a one-off?

Michael


Yeah PER has been a split schedule, daily A333R (HS-TEN,TEO,TEP) route (their newly-fitted aircraft). Recently had a one-off 773. BNE most recently 772ER.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7465
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: THAI Airways flies into bankruptcy

Tue May 19, 2020 6:47 am

MrHMSH wrote:
I guess we had to expect this, are they flying any international routes at all? Must be haemorrhaging badly. The realist in me suggests they'll slim their fleet down to 77Ws, A350s and A330s, though it'd hardly be a bad move to keep the 787s, only having 2 789s is a bit odd, but their 787 fleet is large enough overall. If they get back on their feet then the A321neo would be a solid choice, maybe incorporating Thai Smile completely.


I'm quite sure TG have 777/787 as a single type rating for pilots and I would think the same for the A333/359, I may be wrong however. I would say rightly or wrongly they will keep the A380s, the routes they serve are popular and Thailand is the lost visited country in the world, i'm not saying those A380s actually make money, but they have more of a use than say MH particularly. Neither am I saying they should have brought them in the first place, they probably shouldn't have, however we have to keep up with SQ now.

The 788s are odd in that they decided to put regional J in them, they were used on only haul later like VIE/BNE sometimes AKL when the 2 789s with a long haul J and specifically serve AKL are in maintenance. The A333s are regional aswell.
 
avier
Posts: 1083
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 7:16 am

The governments of countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and alike need to realise they don't need state backed airlines.

The airline groups like Lion, AirAsia, SQ group, Jetstar, some strong Vietnam holdings(VietJet), etc can well serve all these markets and countries more efficiently and provide the required connectivity for tourism & business purposes.

Those airline groupings tend to have better cost structures as they achieve economies of scale due to a large presence in different countries by way of subsidiaries and multiple holdings.

So the need for such traditional, state backed, loss making national carriers becomes redundant.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4243
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 7:26 am

avier wrote:
The governments of countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and alike need to realise they don't need state backed airlines.

The airline groups like Lion, AirAsia, SQ group, Jetstar, some strong Vietnam holdings(VietJet), etc can well serve all these markets and countries more efficiently and provide the required connectivity for tourism & business purposes.

Those airline groupings tend to have better cost structures as they achieve economies of scale due to a large presence in different countries by way of subsidiaries and multiple holdings.

So the need for such traditional, state backed, loss making national carriers becomes redundant.


I can't help but wonder if not the new premium startups we have seen across Asia (Starlux, Bamboo and Premia) have focused on the wrong countries. Malaysia and Thailand were ripe for a private competitor to Thai and Malaysia Airlines.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 783
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 8:51 am

VSMUT wrote:
avier wrote:
The governments of countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and alike need to realise they don't need state backed airlines.

The airline groups like Lion, AirAsia, SQ group, Jetstar, some strong Vietnam holdings(VietJet), etc can well serve all these markets and countries more efficiently and provide the required connectivity for tourism & business purposes.

Those airline groupings tend to have better cost structures as they achieve economies of scale due to a large presence in different countries by way of subsidiaries and multiple holdings.

So the need for such traditional, state backed, loss making national carriers becomes redundant.


I can't help but wonder if not the new premium startups we have seen across Asia (Starlux, Bamboo and Premia) have focused on the wrong countries. Malaysia and Thailand were ripe for a private competitor to Thai and Malaysia Airlines.

Malaysia and Thailand are airline graveyards.
 
moa999
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 8:54 am

VSMUT wrote:
Malaysia and Thailand were ripe for a private competitor to Thai and Malaysia Airlines.


And go up against AirAsia, or ThaiAirAsia, NokScoot, NOK, Thai VietJet and Thai Lion

Both are leisure heavy destinations.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 596
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 9:16 am

avier wrote:
The governments of countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and alike need to realise they don't need state backed airlines.

The airline groups like Lion, AirAsia, SQ group, Jetstar, some strong Vietnam holdings(VietJet), etc can well serve all these markets and countries more efficiently and provide the required connectivity for tourism & business purposes.

Those airline groupings tend to have better cost structures as they achieve economies of scale due to a large presence in different countries by way of subsidiaries and multiple holdings.

So the need for such traditional, state backed, loss making national carriers becomes redundant.


The problem is those countries still need a national airline for long haul and rural destinations. All said airlines (except SQ, then SQ is a quasi-SOE) are good at short haul point to point, but very very bad at long haul. THAI already diversified its short haul and narrow body to Thai Smiles. It is trying.

In THAI's case, THAI is not only an airline, but also a business card representing the whole country's image and is a tourism promoter. It is a national asset. When many people think of Thailand, one of the first thing is the livery of THAI Airways and the beautiful hostess.

National owned airline is not the problem. The problem is the abuse of the appointed management and its corrupted stakeholders. The solution to save THAI is not to abandon the airline as a corpse and let LCC to take over. However, it requires a visionary leader to kill off the old THAI and start a new THAI in the same time. Rehabilitation won't work. Rebirth is required to save airlines like THAI.
 
TheEuphorian
Posts: 421
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:35 am

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 9:17 am

avier wrote:
The governments of countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and alike need to realise they don't need state backed airlines.

The airline groups like Lion, AirAsia, SQ group, Jetstar, some strong Vietnam holdings(VietJet), etc can well serve all these markets and countries more efficiently and provide the required connectivity for tourism & business purposes.

Those airline groupings tend to have better cost structures as they achieve economies of scale due to a large presence in different countries by way of subsidiaries and multiple holdings.

So the need for such traditional, state backed, loss making national carriers becomes redundant.

What needs to be done is that every single LCC in these 3 countries needs to be consolidated and heavily restricted in terms of how they can operate and where they can fly to make them lose their competitive edge over national airlines.
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1277
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 9:33 am

It looks like they have gotten some concessions from one of their lessors: Amedeo agrees rental deferrals with Thai Airways

At the same time, the Thai govt. has allowed the airline to go into bankruptcy proceedings: Thai Airways approved for bankruptcy court-supervised restructuring

Thai needs higher calibre management - previous managements seem to regard it as a hobby. Just look at the collection of planes in their fleet - not really what a cost conscious airline would have. Right now, I think Thai only needs the A350-1000 (for high capacity long haul routes) and A330-900 (for regional and medium haul routes). The A380 is not strictly necessary.
 
CometOrbit
Posts: 43
Joined: Sat May 24, 2008 5:30 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 10:03 am

The BBC is reporting that the Thai government will restructure the airline and it will not go bankrupt.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52718464
Loss-making Thai Airways has been allowed to restructure its debts to keep its planes in the sky.
The struggling airline had previously asked for a government bail-out via a 58.1bn baht ($1.81bn, £1.48bn) loan.
Instead, Thai officials told the airline to come up with a restructuring plan to avoid going bankrupt.
 
TC957
Posts: 3785
Joined: Wed May 23, 2012 1:12 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 10:38 am

Those few 787's have been a bit of a disaster for TG. They've spend lots of time parked up engineless in that heat & humidity with the RR Trent issues.
Nothing they do can't be filled with A333 or A359. Dispose of these 787's, 744, all those early 772/773, maybe a few 77W if any Russian airlines come calling.
Hope they keep the A380's though.
 
Ziyulu
Posts: 860
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:35 am

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 11:22 am

What I find incredible is when Asian carriers face financial troubles, they don't take it on their customers in form of fees. They still provide great service. When American carriers face financial problems, we as the consumer, see through it.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7773
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 11:56 am

TheEuphorian wrote:
What needs to be done is that every single LCC in these 3 countries needs to be consolidated and heavily restricted in terms of how they can operate and where they can fly to make them lose their competitive edge over national airlines.


Are you being facetious? You want to kneecap the efficient carriers so inefficient national carriers survive? Did you study economics in France or Germany?
 
ohsopc
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Jul 29, 2006 11:22 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 12:34 pm

So it is confirmed today that THAI will file for bankruptcy protection.

Want to know what the best part is? The Government and Prime Minister decided they will no longer be a state enterprise, to the dismay of the Unions.

Never has a bankruptcy of a national airline been hailed so widely in a country before I can tell you.
 
User avatar
chunhimlai
Posts: 597
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:03 am

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 12:52 pm

1. Phase out all B747, B787 and B777
2. Get 2nd hand A380 from LH/OZ/MH
3. Get extra A359 and A35K
 
User avatar
chunhimlai
Posts: 597
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:03 am

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 1:35 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
1. Phase out all B747, B787 and B777
2. Get 2nd hand A380 from LH/OZ/MH
3. Get extra A359 and A35K


And get extra A220, A320 and A321lr for regional arm
Build HKT as 2nd hub with longhaul service
Fleet will be doubled from 125 to 250
 
VRHNM
Posts: 119
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:02 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Tue May 19, 2020 2:52 pm

I am not too sure what they plan to do with Thai Smile in the future. They started off as a LCC (despite retaining some elements of the 'Thai' brand name), and then moved slightly more premium, but still less-so than mainline TG...

So does the current 'hybrid-like' Thai Smile compete effectively with local and regional LCCs? Personally I think the brand is confusing since it seems to be stuck in the middle- Takes connection traffic from FSC TG but offers less services which in theory creates inconsistent experiences for passengers.
 
TheEuphorian
Posts: 421
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:35 am

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Wed May 20, 2020 2:49 am

VRHNM wrote:
I am not too sure what they plan to do with Thai Smile in the future. They started off as a LCC (despite retaining some elements of the 'Thai' brand name), and then moved slightly more premium, but still less-so than mainline TG...

So does the current 'hybrid-like' Thai Smile compete effectively with local and regional LCCs? Personally I think the brand is confusing since it seems to be stuck in the middle- Takes connection traffic from FSC TG but offers less services which in theory creates inconsistent experiences for passengers.

From what I know, prior to the announcement that TG will file for bankruptcy, TG's labour union actually called for WE(Thai Smile) to be folded back.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7465
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Wed May 20, 2020 5:58 am

chunhimlai wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
1. Phase out all B747, B787 and B777
2. Get 2nd hand A380 from LH/OZ/MH
3. Get extra A359 and A35K


And get extra A220, A320 and A321lr for regional arm
Build HKT as 2nd hub with longhaul service
Fleet will be doubled from 125 to 250


Sounds like a disaster.

I'm perplexed by those saying phase out the 777/787 they are a single type rating for crew and the 787 and 77W fleet are at oldest 8 years, the 772ER is 13-14 years old and could stay for now, get rid of the 773A x6, 772A x6 and 744 x7. I'm pretty sure the A333/359 fleet are a single type rating as well. They may order some aircraft although even that seems not that likely to replace the older 777As and 744s but there is no point replacing new 77Ws and 787s. Future orders should imo be 359/789.
 
fessor
Posts: 161
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 1:26 pm

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Wed May 20, 2020 12:43 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
1. Phase out all B747, B787 and B777
2. Get 2nd hand A380 from LH/OZ/MH
3. Get extra A359 and A35K


And get extra A220, A320 and A321lr for regional arm
Build HKT as 2nd hub with longhaul service
Fleet will be doubled from 125 to 250


Sounds like a disaster.

I'm perplexed by those saying phase out the 777/787 they are a single type rating for crew and the 787 and 77W fleet are at oldest 8 years, the 772ER is 13-14 years old and could stay for now, get rid of the 773A x6, 772A x6 and 744 x7. I'm pretty sure the A333/359 fleet are a single type rating as well. They may order some aircraft although even that seems not that likely to replace the older 777As and 744s but there is no point replacing new 77Ws and 787s. Future orders should imo be 359/789.


The 787s are One group of pilots and the 777 another.
The reason for drop the 787 is the fleet size.
Only the 772, 773 and 777-200ER should go.
The 77W should stay but should be made less premium. Maybe go to max 30 c class get premium economy class and 10 abreast economy.
The A380 should get smaller first and c class and add premium economy.
And then use A330 regional and A350 for long haul

And then A320 family for domestic

Shut down thai smile
 
mig17
Posts: 309
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:34 am

Re: Minister: THAI "Financial Status Critical"; Rehab Program Failing

Wed May 20, 2020 2:37 pm

Simplifying Thai Airways fleet is easy. 25 aircraft are leaving already : 7 747-400, 6 777-200, 6 777-200ER and 6 777-300. And TG avoided an order of 38 planes last year whitch was put on stand-by for financial difficulties.
Staying are : 6 A380-800 (all owned), 14 777-300ER (6 owned and 8 leased), 12 A350-900 (5 owned and 7 leased), 15 A330-300 (all owned), 6 787-8 (all leased) and 2 787-9 (all leased).
The small 787 fleet makes no sence when you have a larger fleets of same sized A333 for regional role and more capable A359 for long haul. So TG could/should negociate with the lessor the early return of all 787 and a sale and lease back agrement for the entire owned A333/A359/77W fleet. Keep flying them along the A380 for a while and when it is time to replace A330 and later 77W, negociate with Airbus some new A350 while including the buy back of A380 in the deal.
But Thai Airways problem are larger than just simplifying the fleet.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.

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