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JammyBritton27
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United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:31 pm

Another good quarter for UA https://news.alphastreet.com/united-air ... -earnings/

Revenue up 3% YoY to $11.4 billion
Adjusted pre-tax earnings of $1.4 billion
Raised FY19 adjusted EPS guidance to $11.25-12.25
PRASM increased 1.7% YoY
CASM down 0.9% YoY; CASM, excluding other charges, increased 2.1%
Repurchased $363 million of its common shares.
Expects to hire about 8,000 people by the end of 2019
1,348 aircraft in fleet
 
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tlecam
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:45 pm

BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
splitterz
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:04 pm

Impressive with the Max out. Good job everyone at UAL.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:09 pm

They slightly beat EPS estimates and raised guidance but stock kinda flat in after hours. One analyst termed "numbers are a yawn"

Lets see what they say on earnings call tomorrow.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Scarebus34
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:19 pm

LAXintl wrote:
They slightly beat EPS estimates and raised guidance but stock kinda flat in after hours. One analyst termed "numbers are a yawn"

Lets see what they say on earnings call tomorrow.

Revenue fell short - nothing "sexy" about these numbers.
 
TropicalSky
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:40 pm

Can someone compare to DAL ?
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:47 pm

TropicalSky wrote:
Can someone compare to DAL ?


Copy/past from DL report.

Net income up 13.1% over last year at 1.495b
Revenue 12.5b up 5.1% of 3Q18

***************
($ in millions except per share and unit costs) 3Q19 3Q18 Change
Pre-tax income 1,947 1,688 259 15.3 %
Net income 1,495 1,322 173 13.1 %
Diluted earnings per share 2.31 1.92 0.39 20.3 %
Operating revenue 12,560 11,953 607 5.1 %
Total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) 16.58 16.40 0.18 1.1 %
Operating margin 16.5% 13.8% 2.7 19.6 %
Operating cash flow 2,245 1,500 745 49.7 %
Consolidated unit cost (CASM) 13.85 14.14 (0.29) (2.1)%
Operating expense 10,489 10,308 181 1.8 %
Fuel expense 2,239 2,498 (259) (10.4)%
Average fuel price per gallon 1.94 2.21 (0.27) (12.2)%
Non-operating expense (income) 124 (43) 167 NM
5
Adjusted $
Change
%
($ in millions except per share and unit costs) 3Q19 3Q18 Change
Pre-tax income 1,967 1,606 361 22.5 %
Net income 1,506 1,239 267 21.5 %
Diluted earnings per share 2.32 1.80 0.52 29.1 %
Operating revenue 12,554 11,783 771 6.5 %
Total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM, adjusted) 16.57 16.17 0.41 2.5 %
Operating margin 16.3% 13.7% 2.5 18.2 %
Free cash flow 1,430 655 775 NM
Consolidated unit cost (CASM-Ex) 9.84 9.61 0.23 2.4 %
Operating expense 10,508 10,163 345 3.4 %
Fuel expense 2,264 2,514 (249) (9.9)%
Average fuel price per gallon 1.96 2.22 (0.25) (11.5)%
Non-operating expense 79 14 65 NM
 
ual777
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:02 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
They slightly beat EPS estimates and raised guidance but stock kinda flat in after hours. One analyst termed "numbers are a yawn"

Lets see what they say on earnings call tomorrow.

Revenue fell short - nothing "sexy" about these numbers.


Revenues were in line, profits exceeded Wall St expectations, and they raised the full-year outlook. Given the MAX headwinds, a very solid quarter.
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:05 pm

Wonder what the results would be with the MAX in in the air. It certainly crimped their growth and harmed total revenue.

All in all not bad considering the headwinds. All the majors are now very stable month to month.
 
airboss787
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:07 pm

Solid quarter. Wishing to see them catch up DL over the next couple of years in most metrics.
Star Alliance Gold
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:22 pm

It may not have been a “sexy” quarter as described above. I’m okay with a “yawn”, also. Let’s not forget that not that long ago, earning releases from the airlines were never a yawn. They were a rusted out haunted roller coaster ride full of screams and soiled underwear.
 
jumbojet
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:11 am

I'm curious to see how they did operationally; delayed and cancelled flights stats, for the quarter.
 
Packson
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:18 am

Good numbers from both United and Delta. Seems like Wall Street at times is impossible to impress.
 
ScottB
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:50 am

Packson wrote:
Good numbers from both United and Delta. Seems like Wall Street at times is impossible to impress.


Wall Street wasn't impressed because UAL missed on the consensus revenue forecast. Not by a lot -- $40 million -- but it's still considered a miss.
 
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jaybird
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:11 am

Unfortunately every company seems to live and die by Wall Street which sucks. They don't care if a portion of your fleet is grounded. And comparing United, American or Southwest to Delta is meaningless for this quarter because all 3 had grounded equipment - Delta did not - and benefited at the expense of the other 3. My 2cents.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:54 am

What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:03 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


$40 million / 14 airplanes / 90 days = $31,700 daily revenue per airframe. I think that’s reasonable.
 
mm320cap
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:04 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


There are another 20 MAX’s that were supposed to be delivered that weren’t, so it’s actually north of 30 aircraft that would have been generating revenue.
 
HPAEAA
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:05 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


$40 million / 14 airplanes / 90 days = $31,700 daily revenue per airframe. I think that’s reasonable.

Probably, they could have updated guidance if that was the case and probably taken the hit earlier.. I’m kind of curious what the impact of the FF changes will be over the next 12-24 months.
1.4mm and counting...
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:14 am

HPAEAA wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


$40 million / 14 airplanes / 90 days = $31,700 daily revenue per airframe. I think that’s reasonable.

Probably, they could have updated guidance if that was the case and probably taken the hit earlier.. I’m kind of curious what the impact of the FF changes will be over the next 12-24 months.


I think it’s nitpicking. 11.380 billion versus 11.340 billion in revenue.

Would you have your wife call you from the supermarket to ask if it’s okay to spend $11.38 instead of $11.34 like you discussed before she left for the store?
 
Rdh3e
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:20 am

HPAEAA wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


$40 million / 14 airplanes / 90 days = $31,700 daily revenue per airframe. I think that’s reasonable.

Probably, they could have updated guidance if that was the case and probably taken the hit earlier.. I’m kind of curious what the impact of the FF changes will be over the next 12-24 months.

United guidance: PRASM up 1.5% at the midpoint
http://ir.united.com/static-files/18029 ... c50ebddabf

Actual result: PRASM up 1.7%
https://hub.united.com/2019-10-15-unite ... 81849.html

There is only a miss on wall street. United beat the guidance they provided.
 
HPAEAA
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:32 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:

$40 million / 14 airplanes / 90 days = $31,700 daily revenue per airframe. I think that’s reasonable.

Probably, they could have updated guidance if that was the case and probably taken the hit earlier.. I’m kind of curious what the impact of the FF changes will be over the next 12-24 months.


I think it’s nitpicking. 11.380 billion versus 11.340 billion in revenue.

Would you have your wife call you from the supermarket to ask if it’s okay to spend $11.38 instead of $11.34 like you discussed before she left for the store?

I don’t quite agree with your analogy, this was a revenue miss- it’s more like If the gross on your paycheck was off.. as the OP also mentioned, there nothing “sexy” about these results compared to peers so far....

Rdh3e wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:

$40 million / 14 airplanes / 90 days = $31,700 daily revenue per airframe. I think that’s reasonable.

Probably, they could have updated guidance if that was the case and probably taken the hit earlier.. I’m kind of curious what the impact of the FF changes will be over the next 12-24 months.

United guidance: PRASM up 1.5% at the midpoint
http://ir.united.com/static-files/18029 ... c50ebddabf

Actual result: PRASM up 1.7%
https://hub.united.com/2019-10-15-unite ... 81849.html

There is only a miss on wall street. United beat the guidance they provided.

So if the miss wasn’t on Passenger revenue as the OP had suggested due to the max grounding, where else did they fall short?
1.4mm and counting...
 
EssentialBusDC
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:37 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.



Endless excuses?

You do realize that United was supposed to take delivery of more Max’s during the course of the quarter (was supposed to have 30 by year end) and thus it was more then just the 14 already delivered ones that were grounded that affected the schedule. 2100 cancellations just in September due to the Max grounding.

And if the 3 airlines that have the MAX shouldn’t be affected, according to you, then how come last week Delta said they benefited from the Max grounding?
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:39 am

My point is 40 million, while sounding like a large number - is pretty much meaningless when you are talking a forecast in the billions.

We are talking about “missing” by not even a percent: 0.35% to be exact. It’s looking for an excuse to be disappointed. If you need investor guidance to update you on such a narrow tolerance, you’ll literally need an update 3 times a day. The company took in $126 million in revenue every day during this period.
 
United1
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:28 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


The search for the hint of anything amiss by wall street is endless. That is not something confined to airline industry stocks; rather that is fairly standard these days with the hyper jumpy market.

I wouldn't say UAs results were bad or good they were solid which is what the market expects from UA. When a company delivers the expected result you don't see the stock move around much as the results are already priced in. Continuous methodical improvement...that is what UA has been delivering quarter after quarter.

UAs stock is doing fairly well compared to their peers after hours:
UAL +1.39%
ALK +.50%
AAL +.39%
DAL +.04%
LUV +0.00%
JBLU +0.00%
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timh4000
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:34 am

mm320cap wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


There are another 20 MAX’s that were supposed to be delivered that weren’t, so it’s actually north of 30 aircraft that would have been generating revenue.

While revenue would have been higher, but not by the amount of grounded or undelivered airframes.

30 737 max let's say making 4 flights per day. The better estimate would be out of those 120 flights per day how many were cancelled, all 120? If that was to be the case if you take 120 flights per day over Q3 they made 10,800 less flights. I doubt UAL was minus that many flights for the quarter due to the max grounding.
 
United1
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:02 am

timh4000 wrote:
mm320cap wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


There are another 20 MAX’s that were supposed to be delivered that weren’t, so it’s actually north of 30 aircraft that would have been generating revenue.

While revenue would have been higher, but not by the amount of grounded or undelivered airframes.

30 737 max let's say making 4 flights per day. The better estimate would be out of those 120 flights per day how many were cancelled, all 120? If that was to be the case if you take 120 flights per day over Q3 they made 10,800 less flights. I doubt UAL was minus that many flights for the quarter due to the max grounding.


While there were canceled flights due to the MAX groundings most of those flights were covered by shuffling other aircraft around, deferring painting ect. What the MAX grounding did to UA was slow down their growth plans a bit this summer....that could easily account for $40 million in lost revenue.

I think UA was planning on having around 20 737-9s in service for the summer so a bit less than 30. The last 10 were not going to be delivered and through induction to make a difference in Q3 results.

2019 737-9 deliveries
14 737-9s stored by UA
12 737-9s stored by Boeing
4 737-9s in production

2020 737-8/9/10 deliveries
28 737-8/9/10
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
timh4000
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:27 am

United1 wrote:
timh4000 wrote:
mm320cap wrote:

There are another 20 MAX’s that were supposed to be delivered that weren’t, so it’s actually north of 30 aircraft that would have been generating revenue.

While revenue would have been higher, but not by the amount of grounded or undelivered airframes.

30 737 max let's say making 4 flights per day. The better estimate would be out of those 120 flights per day how many were cancelled, all 120? If that was to be the case if you take 120 flights per day over Q3 they made 10,800 less flights. I doubt UAL was minus that many flights for the quarter due to the max grounding.


While there were canceled flights due to the MAX groundings most of those flights were covered by shuffling other aircraft around, deferring painting ect. What the MAX grounding did to UA was slow down their growth plans a bit this summer....that could easily account for $40 million in lost revenue.

I think UA was planning on having around 20 737-9s in service for the summer so a bit less than 30. The last 10 were not going to be delivered and through induction to make a difference in Q3 results.

2019 737-9 deliveries
14 737-9s stored by UA
12 737-9s stored by Boeing
4 737-9s in production

2020 737-8/9/10 deliveries
28 737-8/9/10

I didn't mean to imply there was no effect and zero loss of revenue, just not to the extent of the number of flights that would have been made by a 737max. And my numbers were just a rough estimate based on each plane averaging 4 flights per day.
 
gokmengs
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:29 am

I think everyone makes too much of the relation between Q3 results vs reaction of wall street, share prices reflect the future, so for example you can miss your Q3 numbers by a lot but if you increase your guidance by a decent amount, you will see the stock bid higher. Its more of the guidance vs the actual quarter being reported in many many cases. Decent quarter by UA.
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jayunited
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:36 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


You do realize UA was scheduled to take delivery of more MAX9 aircraft during Q3, in fact if not for the grounding our current fleet count would be 30-35 MAX9s. During Q3 because of the MAX being grounded UA was forced to take over 5,000 revenue flights off the schedule. Combine Q3 with Q2 schedule reductions and now Q4 by the time we get to January 2020, UA will have removed over 9,500 flights from the schedule in 2019 as a result of the grounding. There is no airline in the US that has enough spares to cover 30-35 grounded jets. However even with the MAX fleet being grounded UA still flew 43 million passengers a record (for UA) in Q3.

I get the point you are attempting to make a swing and a miss is still a swing and a miss. No one is making excuses for UA falling $40 million dollars short of Wall Streets expectations. What people are saying is with all the head wind UA faced in Q3, missing the target by $40 million dollars is good when you consider all the factors. Its not just the MAX, there is also fact that IAH was shut down in September for 24 hours do to major flooding from a thunderstorm that turn into a tropical depression in a matter of hours, or the last minute cancellations and numerous delays UA endured at SFO for 3 weeks during runway construction.

Missing Wall Street expectations by $40 million I think is a testament to UA's strength and how far UA has come in a relativity short period of time under the leadership of Munoz and Kirby, and it is encouraging news to see UA moving in the right direction. I don't think any UA employee is disappointed with these results. So although DL still beat UA by over a billion dollars in Q3, I can't help but wonder if UA would have had the benefit of of all our MAX9s, if we didn't have to remove over 5,000 revenue flights from the schedule because of the grounding in Q3 how much closer would we have been to DL's revenue numbers. I know DL would have still beat us but UA would have most certainly would have closed the gap by at least $250-$350 million dollars.
 
dmstorm22
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:14 pm

jayunited wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


You do realize UA was scheduled to take delivery of more MAX9 aircraft during Q3, in fact if not for the grounding our current fleet count would be 30-35 MAX9s. During Q3 because of the MAX being grounded UA was forced to take over 5,000 revenue flights off the schedule. Combine Q3 with Q2 schedule reductions and now Q4 by the time we get to January 2020, UA will have removed over 9,500 flights from the schedule in 2019 as a result of the grounding. There is no airline in the US that has enough spares to cover 30-35 grounded jets. However even with the MAX fleet being grounded UA still flew 43 million passengers a record (for UA) in Q3.

I get the point you are attempting to make a swing and a miss is still a swing and a miss. No one is making excuses for UA falling $40 million dollars short of Wall Streets expectations. What people are saying is with all the head wind UA faced in Q3, missing the target by $40 million dollars is good when you consider all the factors. Its not just the MAX, there is also fact that IAH was shut down in September for 24 hours do to major flooding from a thunderstorm that turn into a tropical depression in a matter of hours, or the last minute cancellations and numerous delays UA endured at SFO for 3 weeks during runway construction.

Missing Wall Street expectations by $40 million I think is a testament to UA's strength and how far UA has come in a relativity short period of time under the leadership of Munoz and Kirby, and it is encouraging news to see UA moving in the right direction. I don't think any UA employee is disappointed with these results. So although DL still beat UA by over a billion dollars in Q3, I can't help but wonder if UA would have had the benefit of of all our MAX9s, if we didn't have to remove over 5,000 revenue flights from the schedule because of the grounding in Q3 how much closer would we have been to DL's revenue numbers. I know DL would have still beat us but UA would have most certainly would have closed the gap by at least $250-$350 million dollars.


To me, simply put the fact this can be seen as a disappointing quarter is a sign of how far UA has come. Expectations are raised because they've been meeting them. The momentum is still very much in the right direction.
 
Junction
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:19 pm

dmstorm22 wrote:

To me, simply put the fact this can be seen as a disappointing quarter is a sign of how far UA has come. Expectations are raised because they've been meeting them. The momentum is still very much in the right direction.


Exactly, and a "yawn" by Wall Street for airline earnings is basically a positive response in this day and age. Remember, one billion is the new zero.
 
mm320cap
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:19 pm

timh4000 wrote:
mm320cap wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
What do you think the revenue miss was from 14 grounded aircraft? How many spares do you think UA schedules in the summer across mainline and UX? The search for excuses is endless.


There are another 20 MAX’s that were supposed to be delivered that weren’t, so it’s actually north of 30 aircraft that would have been generating revenue.

While revenue would have been higher, but not by the amount of grounded or undelivered airframes.

30 737 max let's say making 4 flights per day. The better estimate would be out of those 120 flights per day how many were cancelled, all 120? If that was to be the case if you take 120 flights per day over Q3 they made 10,800 less flights. I doubt UAL was minus that many flights for the quarter due to the max grounding.



There is guidance out there of how many flights were cancelled over the quarter due to MAX grounding, but I don’t care enough to spend time looking it up. But it was in the multiple thousands per month. I think someone above posted 2100 for September. The numbers continue to climb each month (now out to January). If you had a major storm in a month that wiped out 2100 flights, that would have a solid impact on quarterly earnings. Now have one EVERY month of the quarter.

You can think it’s insignificant. I don’t care, frankly. But it has had a profound affect on our operation and my life directly as a B737 Check Airman here.
 
DoctorVenkman
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:06 pm

The people hemming and hawing about $40M of revenue on a company that earns over $40B annually are clearly just looking for something to bash UA. This is an inconsequential blip. Any financial analyst would consider this neither a beat nor a miss - it's statistically within margin of error of expectations. Hence the "yawn" quoted upthread.

For some context, a single, fully-loaded 773 could have well over $500k in revenue. This "miss" is equivalent to cutting a single EWR-NRT frequency for a month and a half.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:34 pm

DoctorVenkman wrote:
The people hemming and hawing about $40M of revenue on a company that earns over $40B annually are clearly just looking for something to bash UA. This is an inconsequential blip. Any financial analyst would consider this neither a beat nor a miss - it's statistically within margin of error of expectations. Hence the "yawn" quoted upthread.

For some context, a single, fully-loaded 773 could have well over $500k in revenue. This "miss" is equivalent to cutting a single EWR-NRT frequency for a month and a half.


Yep. It’s about 8 hours of system wide revenue. There were 2,160 hours in the 3rd quarter.
 
dmstorm22
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:37 pm

DoctorVenkman wrote:
The people hemming and hawing about $40M of revenue on a company that earns over $40B annually are clearly just looking for something to bash UA. This is an inconsequential blip. Any financial analyst would consider this neither a beat nor a miss - it's statistically within margin of error of expectations. Hence the "yawn" quoted upthread.

For some context, a single, fully-loaded 773 could have well over $500k in revenue. This "miss" is equivalent to cutting a single EWR-NRT frequency for a month and a half.


Oh and what do you know, their stock is trading up ~2% today.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6120
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:47 pm

If the airlines could see these results 10 years ago, the would be overjoyed. It wasnt that long ago that every airline except WN was unprofitable.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
N649DL
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:48 pm

Seriously? 14 narrow body aircraft grounded by the Government killed off earnings potential? I don't buy it at all.
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 607
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Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:59 pm

N649DL wrote:
Seriously? 14 narrow body aircraft grounded by the Government killed off earnings potential? I don't buy it at all.


Did you read any of the above posts?

At this point it would have been quite a bit more than 14.
 
timh4000
Posts: 321
Joined: Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:14 pm

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:08 pm

mm320cap wrote:
timh4000 wrote:
mm320cap wrote:

There are another 20 MAX’s that were supposed to be delivered that weren’t, so it’s actually north of 30 aircraft that would have been generating revenue.

While revenue would have been higher, but not by the amount of grounded or undelivered airframes.

30 737 max let's say making 4 flights per day. The better estimate would be out of those 120 flights per day how many were cancelled, all 120? If that was to be the case if you take 120 flights per day over Q3 they made 10,800 less flights. I doubt UAL was minus that many flights for the quarter due to the max grounding.



There is guidance out there of how many flights were cancelled over the quarter due to MAX grounding, but I don’t care enough to spend time looking it up. But it was in the multiple thousands per month. I think someone above posted 2100 for September. The numbers continue to climb each month (now out to January). If you had a major storm in a month that wiped out 2100 flights, that would have a solid impact on quarterly earnings. Now have one EVERY month of the quarter.

You can think it’s insignificant. I don’t care, frankly. But it has had a profound affect on our operation and my life directly as a B737 Check Airman here.

I will say I stand somewhat corrected. An earlier post actually had revenue flights lost for Q3 and it was roughly 9000. So while technically I am still right, they didn't cancel all would be max flights, they had to cancel a majority of them. So, considering the amount of flights cancelled due to the max grounding UA came through fairly decently. One would think their losses would be higher. And if they hadn't had to cancel so many flights, their revenue would have been significantly higher, so, I stand corrected.
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4248
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:20 pm

N649DL wrote:
Seriously? 14 narrow body aircraft grounded by the Government killed off earnings potential? I don't buy it at all.


Delta credited their boost in profits in part by the max grounding. It would stand to reason that the grounding negatively affected the other airlines.
 
airlineaddict
Posts: 384
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 12:37 pm

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:46 pm

United Airlines stock is up over 2% today, even after the earnings call... unlike DL which had its stockprice fall after saying Q4 costs would be increasing.

Surprised that hasn’t been brought up by those so focused on stock price. :roll:
 
codc10
Posts: 2831
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:10 pm

Tommy767 chiming in on the UA earnings thread to emphasize a .35% revenue miss with a pro-DL spin? Color me shocked. :lol:

There’s no question that the MAX has resulted in a headwind to United’s revenue performance... by now, the company expected to have at least 25 MAX9s in service, which is a significant chunk of capacity sitting in mothballs. Even though UA did an admirable job in mitigating their absence over the summer, with each successive quarter, it gets more difficult to make up the shortfall.

Look at United’s guidance... full year capacity growth will be about a half-point below the low end of 2019 pre-grounding forecasts. Judging from the way UA was filling additional capacity and simultaneously growing PRASM, there’s no question the MAXs would have made a material difference in the financials, had they been in service.

As far as 757s, none of them are coming out of the desert, and the remaining PW frames are headed there over the next two years. UA would aggressively move for the Condor 753s if they came available, and the 40 RR 752s are getting an interior refresh, so those aren’t going anywhere. Laderman, in the call, also noted that UA has no need to retire any current widebodies for the next five years, barring major exogenous circumstances, so that would appear to support a bullish long term outlook.

This was another strong quarter for United in a string of sustained improvement in most metrics, going on two years now. Impressive work and convincing evidence that Kirby’s plan is working.
 
mernest
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2016 7:51 pm

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:17 pm

HPAEAA wrote:
Probably, they could have updated guidance if that was the case and probably taken the hit earlier.


They met guidance. They missed analyst consensus revenue estimates by a third of a percent. Being an analyst means never having to say you're sorry.

Does anyone have the spread of analyst estimates? $40mm could very well be the difference between mean and median.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 904
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:20 pm

HPAEAA wrote:
So if the miss wasn’t on Passenger revenue as the OP had suggested due to the max grounding, where else did they fall short?


Possibly in the Pacific?

Revenue change since 3rd Qtr 2018 in millions
$332 Domestic (U.S. and Canada)
$30 Atlantic
($59) Pacific
$74 Latin America
$377 Total

3rd QTR 2019 - Geography - 3rd QTR 2018
$7,094 Domestic (U.S. and Canada) $6,762
2,103 Atlantic 2,073
1,280 Pacific 1,339
903 Latin America 829
$11,380 Total $11,003
 
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CALTECH
Posts: 3409
Joined: Thu May 17, 2007 4:21 am

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:21 pm

At this point, IIRC, this month United would have had 26 737MAX in service, with 4 more by the end of the year.

The 737MAX is going to be a fine airplane after these issues are corrected. It will also be one of the safest aircraft flying after this, as they have been testing it with failures that have never been seen before in operations.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/737-max-sa ... 1564778841
737 MAX Safety Tests Covering Increasingly Remote Failure Risks
Reviews of grounded Boeing jet are expanding beyond the automated flight-control system behind two crashes.

Also, United is doing very well this month in statistics, and the older fleets are for now, outperforming the younger fleets. Good to see United performing better consistently..

D:00...Departures Ontime
...............1................2...............3..............4
MTD.......UA.75.5.....DL.74.5....AA.72.0....WN.61.2

10/15......UA.77.6.....DL.74.6....AA.73.9....WN.60.6

Completion Factor
...............1....................2....................3.....................4
MTD.......DL.99.82.......UA.99.48.......WN.99.35.......AA.99.06

10/15......UA.99.86.......DL.99.74.......WN.99.42.......AA.99.26
You are here.
 
User avatar
CALTECH
Posts: 3409
Joined: Thu May 17, 2007 4:21 am

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:34 pm

mm320cap wrote:
timh4000 wrote:
mm320cap wrote:

There are another 20 MAX’s that were supposed to be delivered that weren’t, so it’s actually north of 30 aircraft that would have been generating revenue.

While revenue would have been higher, but not by the amount of grounded or undelivered airframes.

30 737 max let's say making 4 flights per day. The better estimate would be out of those 120 flights per day how many were cancelled, all 120? If that was to be the case if you take 120 flights per day over Q3 they made 10,800 less flights. I doubt UAL was minus that many flights for the quarter due to the max grounding.



There is guidance out there of how many flights were cancelled over the quarter due to MAX grounding, but I don’t care enough to spend time looking it up. But it was in the multiple thousands per month. I think someone above posted 2100 for September. The numbers continue to climb each month (now out to January). If you had a major storm in a month that wiped out 2100 flights, that would have a solid impact on quarterly earnings. Now have one EVERY month of the quarter.

You can think it’s insignificant. I don’t care, frankly. But it has had a profound affect on our operation and my life directly as a B737 Check Airman here.


:thumbsup: A very profound impact. The usual United bashers are out again with the negative waves. (Tommy767), N649DL, jumbojet, obviously, some do not understand or can not figure out the math how much flying the 26(through Oct Deliveries)UAL 737MAX aircraft were scheduled to do. Yes, 26 aircraft has a very deep impact on operations.....

In October, ....UAL expects to cancel approximately 95 flights a day, which results in roughly 2,900 flights for the month.
In November, UAL expects to cancel approximately 93 flights a day, which results in roughly 2,800 flights for the month.
In December, UAL expects to cancel approximately 75 flights a day, which results in roughly 2,300 flights for the month.
You are here.
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 607
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:49 pm

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:35 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
So if the miss wasn’t on Passenger revenue as the OP had suggested due to the max grounding, where else did they fall short?


Possibly in the Pacific?

Revenue change since 3rd Qtr 2018 in millions
$332 Domestic (U.S. and Canada)
$30 Atlantic
($59) Pacific
$74 Latin America
$377 Total

3rd QTR 2019 - Geography - 3rd QTR 2018
$7,094 Domestic (U.S. and Canada) $6,762
2,103 Atlantic 2,073
1,280 Pacific 1,339
903 Latin America 829
$11,380 Total $11,003


Yeah, good shout. In the presentation they attributed it to the HKG issues
 
User avatar
usdcaguy
Posts: 1514
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2004 12:41 pm

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:38 pm

dmstorm22 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
So if the miss wasn’t on Passenger revenue as the OP had suggested due to the max grounding, where else did they fall short?


Possibly in the Pacific?

Revenue change since 3rd Qtr 2018 in millions
$332 Domestic (U.S. and Canada)
$30 Atlantic
($59) Pacific
$74 Latin America
$377 Total

3rd QTR 2019 - Geography - 3rd QTR 2018
$7,094 Domestic (U.S. and Canada) $6,762
2,103 Atlantic 2,073
1,280 Pacific 1,339
903 Latin America 829
$11,380 Total $11,003


Yeah, good shout. In the presentation they attributed it to the HKG issues


It's always convenient for airline execs to blame things on events outside their control, but frankly, there is likely still too much capacity in Transpacific markets. I know that UA wants to maintain its edge to Asia in terms of its network offering, but they really need to decide how much flying they want to do and at what cost. DL's strategy of relying on partners like KE to do some of the heavy lifting means that they get to minimize their costs while flying only the most profitable routes. Cherry-picking, if you will. You have to wonder if UA is getting the most it can out of NH in this regard.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 904
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: United posts Q3 2019 results

Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:19 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
It's always convenient for airline execs to blame things on events outside their control, but frankly, there is likely still too much capacity in Transpacific markets.


A big percentage of quarterly reports contain quotes from executives blaming things outside of their control.

UA quarterly report shows Revenue by Geography, but they don't show Income by Geography.

However about 10 weeks later the airlines report Income by Geography to the Department of Transportation. UA has had a negative income during the 1st, 2nd and 4th quarter in the Pacific in 2016, 2017, and 2018 and negative income in the first quarter of 2019. So their problem goes much deeper than the HKG riots.

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