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Fixinthe757
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:43 am

KFTG wrote:
Fixinthe757 wrote:
simple answer to the original question.....no. moving on

You might want to re-read the thread.

no, I really dont
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:23 pm

UA444 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
amdiesen wrote:
Smart move by GE, supplementing the life of the life of the GE90 by making the 77W the defacto conversion. Utility of a conversion is heightened for current operators of the GE90 passenger/freighter. Additionally it increases the viability of a 772LR conversion; (the design included freighter considerations., not on the 772.)

FedEX stands out as a potential customer. Given that GE is FedEX's dominate engine supplier and a significant GE customer, are the initial frames destine for Memphis? Once its real; Atlas, western global, ...?

"Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?" A rational Boeing tactical decision would have been to mute a BCF option and/or inhibit an OEM conversion option until bridge production(freighter) was satisfied... and until a paper A350F appeared on the horizon.

Application of a process is an excellent way to discover improvements and achieve economic efficiencies; discussed as the challenge for the 777 conversion. Respecting, COVID changes factors in the equation.
How does this affect the B772F order book?

the GE powered 777's are popular, However? There are many good 777-200 series airplanes powered by PW-4000's that are highly viable and still would be good and reliable freighters. GE is popular today because they Paid Boeing to be the sole source engine. on their airplanes. But? If that's the case? Then the USAF must be in Deep Kimchee because all of their New 767 based tankers? are all PW Powered and there are still many shops around the world still working on the PW4000 series engines.

I hope the UA 777-222ERs have life as freighters after UA. That’s why I hope there is a conversion program

I decided to look up the utilization of those 777-200ERs:

https://av-info.faa.gov/sdrx/Query.aspx
Put in registration, without the N. For example, N76021, look up 76021. Also put in a time range.

This frame hasn't had an issue in a while, so data us 5 months old. With last fall 4250 flight cycles and a mere 46,739 flight hours, a great candidate for conversion. So if enough are sold, there is a business case.

However, GECAS sponsored the 777-300ERSF. Someone else must sponsor the 777-200ERSF.

The 20 GECAS conversions will cost over $250 million. If someone steps up with real money, a conversion company would invest in the 777-200Er conversion.

Boeing is a little miffed they weren't first. This won't be a huge market like the 757 conversions, (That will be 737-800 conversions), but I would expect a 2nd 777 conversion eventually.

I believe the 777 residual values were still too high for conversion. I speculate GE was going to seed the market to preserve future 777-300ER values for post 777x delivery and the expected deluge of EK 777-300ERs. The fact they prepared before Coronavirus was fortuitous. Now all aircraft resale values will drop.

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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:36 pm

Fixinthe757 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Fixinthe757 wrote:
simple answer to the original question.....no. moving on

You might want to re-read the thread.

no, I really dont


Fully agree Fix757.

The F777F has sold well and customers wanted the new all cargos jet, not used convert ones.
 
VRHNM
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:06 pm

To what extent has the reason for this being that many cargo hubs operate and built mainly around smaller bays (that fit the MD11/767/A300)? I'm not entirely sure if 'cargo hubs' really tend to gravitate towards smaller bays but I did hear that one reason why the 777F hasn't been more of a success is because of space limitations at cargo bays.
 
zkncj
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:

PS, the 787 must drop in resale value by $20 to $30 million before we can discuss a P to F. The A350 must drop about $50 million, so we are a long time away from discussing P to F on the latest airframes. I think there will eventually be 200 777-300ERSF. But this isn't a sprint, I expect it to take years until popular, just as with the 757 conversions (read above link, it took a while before enough 'stock' was available at the right price.

Lightsaber


With the 787s it really depends on how much surplus stock some airlines are going to have over the next 18-24months of this type in there fleet.

I’m sure if there was an option of an 787-9BCF conversation kit, some airline maybe open to converting an frame or two. Although patching up the windows on 787 would not be an fun job.

The market is going to take 3-5 years to bounce back, in the mean time airlines are willing to do anything to bring in revenue.

NZ is currently operating most of its 789 fleet just an freighters are the moment. In some case it’s sending two 789at at the same time full of freight e.g on AKl-PVG.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:03 am

Lightsaber brings up an interesting point, one that I had thought about but not expressed before. And that is the fact that conversions do not happen until resale value for the airframe falls to a level not all that much above scrap price. That being the case, how could the lack of a conversion program hurt a plane? One of the reasons why there has been no attempt at converting 777s is they still command decent prices as pax planes. That is better than having them go for peanuts to be converted. What is distorting the picture is the prospect of hordes of 77Ws suddenly appearing on the market because EK (and some others) who leased large numbers of them and won’t keep them after the leases expire. The market has not seen something like this happen before. Hence GECAS, who will be left holding the bag on a lot of them, was the prime mover in getting a conversion for the 77W developed, which conventional thinking would have thought would be the least suitable model..
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lightsaber
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:14 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Lightsaber brings up an interesting point, one that I had thought about but not expressed before. And that is the fact that conversions do not happen until resale value for the airframe falls to a level not all that much above scrap price. That being the case, how could the lack of a conversion program hurt a plane? One of the reasons why there has been no attempt at converting 777s is they still command decent prices as pax planes. That is better than having them go for peanuts to be converted. What is distorting the picture is the prospect of hordes of 77Ws suddenly appearing on the market because EK (and some others) who leased large numbers of them and won’t keep them after the leases expire. The market has not seen something like this happen before. Hence GECAS, who will be left holding the bag on a lot of them, was the prime mover in getting a conversion for the 77W developed, which conventional thinking would have thought would be the least suitable model..

You bring up a good point in that a flood of leased 777-300ERs will come off lease soon and flood the market with supply. To build on what you were pointing out, there will be a high availability of 787s and A350s as well as the introduction of the 777X. 777-300ER resale values will not survive this flood of supply.

I speculate GECAS launched the 777-300ERSF to remove 20 frames from this supply. Unfortunately, Covid19 will add far more.

This isn't completely unprecedented, we have an analogous airframe. When Easyjet started having lease expirations on the A319 in parallel with Cebu Pacific, the market was flooded. Pricing fell to scrap for 12+ year old A319s. Unfortunately, I think that fate awaits the 777-300ER in 3 years. For by then airlines who want large will buy 777x or A35K, most will downsize.
.
However, I expect most 777-300ER to be stored until demand for conversion accepts them or a pax airline picks up a deal.

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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
UA444 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
the GE powered 777's are popular, However? There are many good 777-200 series airplanes powered by PW-4000's that are highly viable and still would be good and reliable freighters. GE is popular today because they Paid Boeing to be the sole source engine. on their airplanes. But? If that's the case? Then the USAF must be in Deep Kimchee because all of their New 767 based tankers? are all PW Powered and there are still many shops around the world still working on the PW4000 series engines.

I hope the UA 777-222ERs have life as freighters after UA. That’s why I hope there is a conversion program

I decided to look up the utilization of those 777-200ERs:

https://av-info.faa.gov/sdrx/Query.aspx
Put in registration, without the N. For example, N76021, look up 76021. Also put in a time range.

This frame hasn't had an issue in a while, so data us 5 months old. With last fall 4250 flight cycles and a mere 46,739 flight hours, a great candidate for conversion. So if enough are sold, there is a business case.

However, GECAS sponsored the 777-300ERSF. Someone else must sponsor the 777-200ERSF.

The 20 GECAS conversions will cost over $250 million. If someone steps up with real money, a conversion company would invest in the 777-200Er conversion.

Boeing is a little miffed they weren't first. This won't be a huge market like the 757 conversions, (That will be 737-800 conversions), but I would expect a 2nd 777 conversion eventually.

I believe the 777 residual values were still too high for conversion. I speculate GE was going to seed the market to preserve future 777-300ER values for post 777x delivery and the expected deluge of EK 777-300ERs. The fact they prepared before Coronavirus was fortuitous. Now all aircraft resale values will drop.

Lightsaber


I can't see a sponsor for the B772, as the B77L has the additional MTOW capabilities to be able to have a more durable main-deck floor to handle additional MTOW. The Boeing 777 freighter (based on the B77L) has the ability to carry 102t of payload. By contrast, the Boeing 777-200ER would only be able to carry about 50t of payload (running out of payload well before running of space) as a freighter with the same structural modifications...about the same as the Boeing 767-300ER freighter, and thus it would make no sense to have a B772 freighter when as a plane, the B763 is about 110t lighter with the same max payload capability. The other factor is: sufficient feedstock...there are just under 350 Boeing 777-200(ER) frames in service, the last one being built for Asiana in 2013, and a significant number of those were ordered de-rated, especially by SQ and NH. By contrast, over 800 B77Ws will ultimately have been delivered, even more than the total number of passenger B763(ER) frames built (which was just over 580).

The B77W Big Twin (which would really be a Boeing 777-300ER(BDSF)) has the advantage, by contrast, of being able to carry the same payload (albeit not as dense) as the B77L-based freighter. This is where I could see an airline like FX or even K4 buying up B77Ws for conversion. There will be a market as older B744 freighters run out of time and hours.
 
raylee67
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Thu May 14, 2020 3:44 pm

But Boeing is developing a 777-200ER BCF. At least it says so in the 767-300BCF official brochure. It even listed the spec: 75000 kg payload 3900 nm range

See page 13 in
https://www.boeing.com/resources/boeing ... 00-bcf.pdf
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI LX
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
UA444
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Thu May 14, 2020 5:41 pm

With DL retiring their entire 777 fleet and AA and UA both having large fleets of PW and RR 777s, wouldn’t those engine makers be smart to help a conversion program along since it would extend the viability of those engines?
 
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ssteve
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Thu May 14, 2020 7:51 pm

The are limited enough 200LRs. I believe it's the same exact engine as the 200F, many other shared parts. I imagine the ~60 LRs would be ideal part-outs to give the ~260 factory-built freighters a long, long life. Hard to envision a conversion program for them. Any of them would also make excellent government VIP frames, or one-off science projects like the SOFIA telescope.

The potential benefits of the 77W as a package freighter are neat.
 
upintheair2019
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The world's first 777-300ER pax to freighter conversion

Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:37 pm

Former A6-EBB Boeing 777-300ER Emirates (now owned by GECAS) has landed in TLV today. It will be converted into a freighter by IAI.

https://www.facebook.com/AeronewsGlobal ... 4325745314
 
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Re: The world's first 777-300ER pax to freighter conversion

Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:43 pm

Background info: https://www.flightglobal.com/mro/gecas- ... 17.article

Should be a great market opportunity, IMO.
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lightsaber
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:21 pm

UA444 wrote:
With DL retiring their entire 777 fleet and AA and UA both having large fleets of PW and RR 777s, wouldn’t those engine makers be smart to help a conversion program along since it would extend the viability of those engines?

For the Pratts, too late. The airframes are too old versus other available airframes.

The 777-300ER is available in such quantity it will be converted for a long time. I suspect the 77L is worth far more converted than as parts, although some fraction is doomed.

Since GE has the most engines, they had the most incentive to launch this program.

We can expect decades more of GE-90 service.

Lightsaber

Late edit: Do we know the scheduled conversion time for the first aircraft? I know the first is slow and will required delta cert testing. Unfortunately, I expect a hundred frames will be available.

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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:28 pm

Is this the first 777-300 Freighter?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:37 pm

I found a bit more about the aircraft:
https://www.airfleets.net/ficheapp/plane-b777-32789.htm

Delivered 3/9/2005, or 15 years old.

My opinion, looking at the orders and deliveries:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... deliveries

This is one of the early 777-300ER deliveries and probably a well utilized Aircraft knowing how EK uses aircraft. However, only the 10+ year old 777-300ER are likely to become cheap enough to convert, even in this coming economy. That leaves 200+ possible candidates of which at least half will continue in pax duty. In a few years the peak delivery volume will age out and that will become an interesting freight market.

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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:38 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Is this the first 777-300 Freighter?

This is the first 777-300ERSF.

It is the first 777 freighter conversion. The first of, I estimate, 200 to 300 conversions.

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JayinKitsap
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:32 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Also to be considered is the reason there has been no P2F conversion for the 777; namely, the composite floor beams. If they had been aluminum and strong enough for normal freight, it would have raised the empty weight of the aircraft and caused it to either lose payload or range. The aggregate cost over the life of the airframe in terms of lost revenue/increased fuel consumption would likely far exceed any gain in the residual value of the airframe at the end of its airline life.


Boeing made the right decision to design in the lighter composite floor beams, however good design practice would have thought thru the P2F future conversion back in the original design. One possible approach would have been the ability to sister 1 or 2 beams from scrapped aircraft alongside each beam in the converted craft. That would increase scrap value of the 772's, and non ER 773's, just for their beams.
 
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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:18 pm

raylee67 wrote:
But Boeing is developing a 777-200ER BCF. At least it says so in the 767-300BCF official brochure.


Boeing have been studying cargo conversions for the 777-200 and 777-200ER for many years, but so far they have never gone anywhere and I am inclined to believe they will not as the modification costs to allow them to carry general cargo loads (as opposed to packages) requires extensive and expensive modifications.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:44 pm

I think Boeing’s bigger issue up to this point is that any conversion program would hurt 77L / 748F new build sales.

Now that game is over, they’ll likely jump on the converted freighter. Especially as new sales will be less, the revenue opportunity will be hard to pass.

Even if the floor beam issue gets resolved, the 77W should carry less payload weight than 77F. Both have the same MTOW and the 34’ stretch is fairly heavily.

Edit: 77W has a 4T higher MTOW but weights ~22T more. So payload would be 20T less (slightly higher cruise drag as well). If anything, a small section of the rear cargo main deck near the door and over the wing would be stiffened/upgraded for higher densities. The rest is likely to stay as is as it’s not far off from balancing payload weight and volume

That said, it’s still a beast and perfect for the e-commerce freight market.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:35 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
I think Boeing’s bigger issue up to this point is that any conversion program would hurt 77L / 748F new build sales.

Now that game is over, they’ll likely jump on the converted freighter. Especially as new sales will be less, the revenue opportunity will be hard to pass.

Even if the floor beam issue gets resolved, the 77W should carry less payload weight than 77F. Both have the same MTOW and the 34’ stretch is fairly heavily.

Edit: 77W has a 4T higher MTOW but weights ~22T more. So payload would be 20T less (slightly higher cruise drag as well). If anything, a small section of the rear cargo main deck near the door and over the wing would be stiffened/upgraded for higher densities. The rest is likely to stay as is as it’s not far off from balancing payload weight and volume

That said, it’s still a beast and perfect for the e-commerce freight market.

The impact to new sales might be why Boeing would not support the 777-300ERSF.

I like the idea of a partial full duty floor. I'm not aware of any such plan, but first get out a package duty freighter then a partial heavy duty.

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Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:05 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Also to be considered is the reason there has been no P2F conversion for the 777; namely, the composite floor beams. If they had been aluminum and strong enough for normal freight, it would have raised the empty weight of the aircraft and caused it to either lose payload or range. The aggregate cost over the life of the airframe in terms of lost revenue/increased fuel consumption would likely far exceed any gain in the residual value of the airframe at the end of its airline life.


Boeing made the right decision to design in the lighter composite floor beams, however good design practice would have thought thru the P2F future conversion back in the original design. One possible approach would have been the ability to sister 1 or 2 beams from scrapped aircraft alongside each beam in the converted craft. That would increase scrap value of the 772's, and non ER 773's, just for their beams.

Interesting thought, but easier to state than to accomplish. You would have to provide places to attach supports for the added beams, which would add weight. Not a lot, but in this environment any unnecessary weight in an airliner is a no-no. And adding in extra floor beams may not be possible without taking up the floor, which brings us back to the present solution, replacing the floor beams. Would cost nearly as much.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
upintheair2019
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:55 am

 
VV
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:08 pm

I do not know if this has been posted. I have just discovered this thread.

The Big Twin brochure:
https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/defa ... ochure.pdf
 
VV
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:11 pm

By the way, the first 777-300ER to be converted has arrived at the facilities.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:00 pm

Further, check out the website https://bigtwinfreighter.com/


Image

"Reinforced fuselodge and REPLACED floor structure.

That surprises me as it drives the cost of conversion quite high. However, they're marketing this as a 747BCF / 747F replacement, which would require the high capacity floor mods for most of those carriers (UPS being the possible exception).

It also makes me think FX is not one of the first customers.

Perhaps later on there will be a lower cost conversion aimed at the package companies that reduces floor capacity in exchange for conversion speed and reduced cost?

Also, my earlier comments regarding weights are misplaced and wrong. They are able to keep most of the 772LRF payload rating, listing 100t, just with reduced range. They were able to bump MLW to 264t up about 13t from pax 251t.

In short, this is a technically VERY capable aircraft and will deliver far better fuel cost per tonne.

Million dollar question is how expensive is the conversion process and how cheap is the feedstock. COVID probably did a huge favor or IAI in that feedstock prices are all but guaranteed to be dirt-cheap now.

How fast can they convert them. :)
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:14 am

Sam Chui has an article about it also, noting the first plane is now at IAI, It looks like a cut and paste job of the information linked above.

https://samchui.com/2020/06/06/first-bo ... tymbdVKipo

It will be interesting to watch this, as 77W values drop with COVID this conversion should sell all the better.
 
marcelh
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:19 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Sam Chui has an article about it also, noting the first plane is now at IAI, It looks like a cut and paste job of the information linked above.

https://samchui.com/2020/06/06/first-bo ... tymbdVKipo

It will be interesting to watch this, as 77W values drop with COVID this conversion should sell all the better.

I really don’t see the “as 77W values drop with COVID”. A380s are parked and new planes are deferred, leaving the 77W as the backbone for a lot of airlines.
 
worldranger
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:30 pm

Interesting rumors out of Dubai suggesting that the negative residual values of the end of lease A380s with EK are bringing the Operatimg lessors to the table with deferred payment and renegotiated terms. Speculation suggests that EK will retain the 380s at lease end and that the lessors will “Pay them to keep them”. You will have a lot of mid life quads paid for and the only place to put them is EK. Fuel trending lower makes the long term math more viable
As the only operator- this strengthened EKs position with the lessors. I would expect a reduction in 7X orders and the continued disposal of 7Ws putting downward pressure on their resale value which augurs well for conversions.
 
VV
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:38 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
...
How fast can they convert them. :)


The targeted entry into service is in 2022 for the first. I guess the subsequent conversion will be much faster, one year maybe.

For information, 2010 vintage 777-300ER is about 60 million, conversion costs about 35 million. All in US dollar.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:10 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Sam Chui has an article about it also, noting the first plane is now at IAI, It looks like a cut and paste job of the information linked above.

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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:38 pm

worldranger wrote:
Interesting rumors out of Dubai suggesting that the negative residual values of the end of lease A380s with EK are bringing the Operatimg lessors to the table with deferred payment and renegotiated terms. Speculation suggests that EK will retain the 380s at lease end and that the lessors will “Pay them to keep them”. You will have a lot of mid life quads paid for and the only place to put them is EK. Fuel trending lower makes the long term math more viable
As the only operator- this strengthened EKs position with the lessors. I would expect a reduction in 7X orders and the continued disposal of 7Ws putting downward pressure on their resale value which augurs well for conversions.

If true, I would expect differals and as you note continued disposal.

In the aircraft Lease/Finance thread, the only aircraft not taking a 15% hit in value are the 777F and A359. So a combined drop in 77W and demand for freighters will help transfer these to freight duty.

Now, I haven't seen 77W values, but I would expect them to be hit harder than most aircraft in resale value.

If that 2010 77W goes from $60 m to $50m, that will boost conversions.

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UPS757Pilot
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:33 am

Interesting that the website shows samples cities, one of them being CVG.
 
VV
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:35 am

GECAS has some 777-30ER in their portfolio.
So the question of 777-300ER market value is not very relevant for them.

The conversion protects the lease rate of their 777-300ER fleet.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:06 am

I came across to the below news, just today and the news itself is quite recent.

https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/f ... onversion/

It seems that the very first to-be-converted 77W has just been delivbered to IAI and for the moment there are no converted example(s), yet.

So what was that photo at the topic author's starting message on this thread? Was it a real-world photo or only a simulated artwork?
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:27 pm

VV wrote:
I do not know if this has been posted. I have just discovered this thread.

The Big Twin brochure:
https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/defa ... ochure.pdf


According this brochure :
MZFW is increased from 524.000 lbs (777-300ER) to 558.000 lbs ( +34.000 lbs)
MLW Is increased from 554.000 lbs (777-300ER) to 583.000 lbs ( +29.000 lbs )

OEW will be 558.000 lbs minus 222.000 lbs = 336.000 lbs (for comparisson OEW 777F =318.300 lbs)

This will require a lot of (aft) fuselage strengthening, due the larger moment and increase in MZFW, probably lowering the LOV cycle limit further than already at the 777F.
Also the MLW has to be increased, requiring landing gear mods and /or new RTO tests and amended certification.
This the first time that the operating weights of a P-F conversion will be increased above the max certified weights of the OEM.
All earlier conversion had the same operating weights than the factory built freighters or the -BCF variant.
We will see in what way Boeing will cooperate (or not).
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:29 pm

VV wrote:
The targeted entry into service is in 2022 for the first. I guess the subsequent conversion will be much faster, one year maybe.

For information, 2010 vintage 777-300ER is about 60 million, conversion costs about 35 million. All in US dollar.


Based on this quote from the FG link in the OP, and the first frame having already arrived at IAI facilities, maybe we can expect the programme to progress a little faster than originally planned..?

The first aircraft will be delivered to IAI’s Tel Aviv facilities in December 2020 for conversion


This should give IAI a 6-month head start if all preparations for conversion are complete and ready to go.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:43 pm

747classic wrote:
VV wrote:
I do not know if this has been posted. I have just discovered this thread.

The Big Twin brochure:
https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/defa ... ochure.pdf


According this brochure :
MZFW is increased from 524.000 lbs (777-300ER) to 558.000 lbs ( +34.000 lbs)
MLW Is increased from 554.000 lbs (777-300ER) to 583.000 lbs ( +29.000 lbs )

OEW will be 558.000 lbs minus 222.000 lbs = 336.000 lbs (for comparisson OEW 777F =318.300 lbs)

This will require a lot of (aft) fuselage strengthening, due the larger moment and increase in MZFW, probably lowering the LOV cycle limit further than already at the 777F.
Also the MLW has to be increased, requiring landing gear mods and /or new RTO tests and amended certification.
This the first time that the operating weights of a P-F conversion will be increased above the max certified weights of the OEM.
All earlier conversion had the same operating weights than the factory built freighters or the -BCF variant.
We will see in what way Boeing will cooperate (or not).

I believe the relatively long conversion time includes some testing time. I would expect not only a new RTO, but also a series of flight tests to verify landing performance.

Boeing doesn't want the competition, so I expect no cooperation. The two partners (GE and Boeing) have different goals and this is outside of the contract scope.

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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:11 pm

airzona11 wrote:
That GECAS model is a great looking bird.

itisi wrote:
Antarius wrote:
What does this do to the 748F line. I wonder


That's basically dead anyway.


Really? It is still getting orders and making deliveries to operators that keep ordering more. It is the only freighter in its class. This converted 77W is still not what the 748F is and can do.

It is still making deliveries. No new orders since the last UPS order. And now Triumph has ceased building the fuselages, and Boeing has to make a decision as to whether they will do so themselves, find another vendor, or cease. Without some serious orders they will have no choice but to cease.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:01 pm

SEPilot wrote:
It is still making deliveries. No new orders since the last UPS order. And now Triumph has ceased building the fuselages, and Boeing has to make a decision as to whether they will do so themselves, find another vendor, or cease. Without some serious orders they will have no choice but to cease.

So much of this is a "follow the money" exercise. Boeing has had several decision points over the last few years regarding 748F and while holding out hope they kept their money in their pockets. Not sure why so many are going with hope over deeds.

Now GE sees that their financing arm has a lot of 77Ws coming off lease with little resale prospect (the market has moved on to 787, A350 and 77x) and their aero engine arm making good money selling spare parts for GE90s. Luckily for us aviation nerds this has motivated GE to help get this conversion started.

lightsaber wrote:
Boeing doesn't want the competition, so I expect no cooperation. The two partners (GE and Boeing) have different goals and this is outside of the contract scope.

I'm mildly yet pleasantly surprised about what we are reading above that they are going to put in a new floor structure and are going to increase MTOW. That's more investment than I thought we'd see and thus more of a threat to Boeing. I'm sure Boeing isn't happy to have a new competitor in the widebody freighter market.

It's also a bit surprising since GE is also on 77X and thus would benefit from a 778F. They may be undermining that market by doing 773F.

GE seems to be walking a tightrope between making a 773F that is interesting enough to the market to move their surplus frames but not too interesting to undermine a future 778F.

Meanwhile Boeing sees GE using old 773 frames in a way that threatens 772F and 778F.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:16 pm

mafaky wrote:
So what was that photo at the topic author's starting message on this thread? Was it a real-world photo or only a simulated artwork?


Those are computer-generated renderings.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
It is still making deliveries. No new orders since the last UPS order. And now Triumph has ceased building the fuselages, and Boeing has to make a decision as to whether they will do so themselves, find another vendor, or cease. Without some serious orders they will have no choice but to cease.

So much of this is a "follow the money" exercise. Boeing has had several decision points over the last few years regarding 748F and while holding out hope they kept their money in their pockets. Not sure why so many are going with hope over deeds.

Now GE sees that their financing arm has a lot of 77Ws coming off lease with little resale prospect (the market has moved on to 787, A350 and 77x) and their aero engine arm making good money selling spare parts for GE90s. Luckily for us aviation nerds this has motivated GE to help get this conversion started.

lightsaber wrote:
Boeing doesn't want the competition, so I expect no cooperation. The two partners (GE and Boeing) have different goals and this is outside of the contract scope.

I'm mildly yet pleasantly surprised about what we are reading above that they are going to put in a new floor structure and are going to increase MTOW. That's more investment than I thought we'd see and thus more of a threat to Boeing. I'm sure Boeing isn't happy to have a new competitor in the widebody freighter market.

It's also a bit surprising since GE is also on 77X and thus would benefit from a 778F. They may be undermining that market by doing 773F.

GE seems to be walking a tightrope between making a 773F that is interesting enough to the market to move their surplus frames but not too interesting to undermine a future 778F.

Meanwhile Boeing sees GE using old 773 frames in a way that threatens 772F and 778F.


I doubt that Boeing is surprised on this. It's a rather obvious after market move.

A reality is that the new freighter market has generally been a different market than the converted freighter market.

Another reality is that this also means more and longer term parts and technical support from Boeing as well.

I doubt that Boeing is more than perhaps minor annoyed; and might even be in total acceptance with this. It is after all a rather obvious development and keeps Boeing aircraft flying longer (and helps retain that Boeing is the freighter lead in the world).

I suspect that Airbus might be more annoyed than Boeing. This likely has a larger effect on their future concept of an A350F than it has on Boeing.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:16 pm

It is interesting to see the cargo door placed aft of the wing. I'm guessing that this provides more flexibility during loading / unloading.
I.e. when loading, you send the first ULD down the fwd fuselage and reduce the risk of tail tipping.
Is an aft cargo door the industry preference?
Is it a strong selling point or just a nice to have?
I would appreciate clarifications from those more knowledgeable than me.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:40 pm

I don't think that anyone realistically felt that the 778-F would be a near-term product with any kind of sustainable volume. With the 748F ending production, and with no more 777Fs in the pipeline after the current orders (if there are any) are completed, the only solution for large freighters (i.e. greater than 767-300 sized) is going to be conversions of existing frames, or something produced by Airbus. A350 slots, up until COVID, were much more lucrative for passenger versions. What does a freight A350 offer that a converted 77W doesn't? Yes, it'll have lower fuel burn, but it'll also have significantly higher purchase costs. Given how cheap fuel has been for a long time now, I just don't see the added fuel burn equaling a near term repayment of the purchase cost difference.

I think the biggest impact here will be on the seaborne cargo freight industry. With the 77W being able to do the same work as the 744F for notably less cost, and with the numbers that we seem to think will be entering the market over time, I feel that it's going to take a bite out of the market for cargo vessels that carry smaller boxes. The oversized stuff is going to be on ships for a long time to come, but, as air shipping costs continue to fall (not rates, as those are affected by all sorts of things, including global pandemics), a greater volume of those shipments will move to air freight.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:07 pm

Does anyone have an actual cost analysis comparing the purchase/conversion of a used 747-400 to the purchase/conversion of a 777-300ER?

The 77W is more fuel efficient but in terms of purchase price, where does it sit? Can I buy a recently parked Virgin Atlantic/GECAS 747-400 and convert it to a freighter for half the cost of a 77W?
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:16 pm

CX747 wrote:
Does anyone have an actual cost analysis comparing the purchase/conversion of a used 747-400 to the purchase/conversion of a 777-300ER?

The 77W is more fuel efficient but in terms of purchase price, where does it sit? Can I buy a recently parked Virgin Atlantic/GECAS 747-400 and convert it to a freighter for half the cost of a 77W?


I don’t think there are many -300ERs on sale right now, so it’s hard to compare. And we don’t know the actual cost of the conversion until the first plane is finished.

But there there hasn’t been an -400 conversion in years. So, I don’t think there will be many in the future, whatever the cost. That ship has sailed.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:41 pm

CX747 wrote:
Does anyone have an actual cost analysis comparing the purchase/conversion of a used 747-400 to the purchase/conversion of a 777-300ER?

The 77W is more fuel efficient but in terms of purchase price, where does it sit? Can I buy a recently parked Virgin Atlantic/GECAS 747-400 and convert it to a freighter for half the cost of a 77W?

I couldn't find a link for 747 or 77W:

Conversion cost before purchase and found airframe maintenance:
767 $14 million usd
A332 $15 million usd
A332 $16 million.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... b-2018-iba


Estimated, including aircraft for the 777-300ERSF: $60 million (complete):

https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/f ... er-closer/

This link alludes that the 744 variable costs are just too high.

http://www.aircargopedia.com/passengertofreightpg.htm

Boeing formally ended the 744BCF in 2016 (warning, video link):

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EotYBTfhL_8

A conversion is only worth it if the plane is flown enough hours with enough profit per hour to pay for buying the aircraft (or not scrapping it and getting paid for at least the engines) plus conversion costs plus all the expensive repairs found during conversion. Only the newest 747s might be considered.

With the incredible limit of Validity of the 777 (60,000 Flight cycles, 160,000 flight hours), all are candidates at a low enough sales price. GE is funding the first 10+ conversions.

With how many 77Ws will become available over the next 2 to 5 years, I couldn't imagine a 744SF would be competitive. The cost of a 777-300ER probably dropped 15%. Suddenly having the backstop of a freight conversion looks brilliant!


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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:09 am

In 2002, Boeing projected the conversion price of a 747-400BCF would be around $25 million (itself a reduction of $10 million from earlier projections). In 2018, CAPA noted 747-400 conversion prices from both Boeing and IAI remained "significant" and this was dampening conversion demand, even with cheap feed stock as airlines retired their fleets en masse.

A 767-300P2F conversion averages around $14 million and an A330-200P2F is about $15 million on average with the A330-300P2F averaging around $16 million. So if a 747-400P2F is even $20 million, it's probably not an economical project, though IAI did do two such conversions for Asiana in 2017.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:55 am

The floor beams are no issue if Boeing is part of the program. Just use 77F beams and structural changes. The 77W already has 351t MTOW.
101t for a 77W conversion versus 110t for a purpose built 77F freighter is a low penalty, considering the 77W is a stretch and has heavier OEW.
UPS has 39 MD11s and 13 744s. FedEx has 25 MD10s and 52 MD11s. That's 129 candidates for the 77W conversion over the next decade.
I agree that feedstock cost will be important. Especially since the 77W conversion will be the longest main deck and consequently the most expensive conversion. UPS and FedEx can swap for 767s at more than 1 for 1 for everything but TPAC, so the cost of 767s used and new has to be factored in. Were it not for Amazon, we probably would not have this thread.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:57 am

lightsaber wrote:
CX747 wrote:
Does anyone have an actual cost analysis comparing the purchase/conversion of a used 747-400 to the purchase/conversion of a 777-300ER?

The 77W is more fuel efficient but in terms of purchase price, where does it sit? Can I buy a recently parked Virgin Atlantic/GECAS 747-400 and convert it to a freighter for half the cost of a 77W?

I couldn't find a link for 747 or 77W:

Conversion cost before purchase and found airframe maintenance:
767 $14 million usd
A332 $15 million usd
A332 $16 million.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... b-2018-iba


Estimated, including aircraft for the 777-300ERSF: $60 million (complete):

https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/f ... er-closer/

This link alludes that the 744 variable costs are just too high.

http://www.aircargopedia.com/passengertofreightpg.htm

Boeing formally ended the 744BCF in 2016 (warning, video link):

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EotYBTfhL_8

A conversion is only worth it if the plane is flown enough hours with enough profit per hour to pay for buying the aircraft (or not scrapping it and getting paid for at least the engines) plus conversion costs plus all the expensive repairs found during conversion. Only the newest 747s might be considered.

With the incredible limit of Validity of the 777 (60,000 Flight cycles, 160,000 flight hours), all are candidates at a low enough sales price. GE is funding the first 10+ conversions.

With how many 77Ws will become available over the next 2 to 5 years, I couldn't imagine a 744SF would be competitive. The cost of a 777-300ER probably dropped 15%. Suddenly having the backstop of a freight conversion looks brilliant!


Lightsaber


VV wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
...
How fast can they convert them. :)


The targeted entry into service is in 2022 for the first. I guess the subsequent conversion will be much faster, one year maybe.

For information, 2010 vintage 777-300ER is about 60 million, conversion costs about 35 million. All in US dollar.



Per the above reference, conversion cost is $35MM.

If used 77W’s are going for $60MM each, that puts total at $95MM. Hopefully that includes green engines....And given these frames have lots of life left, it’s competing with new with additional volumetric capacity.

However. This beast has 15% more cargo volume then a 747F. That’s significant. And probably a big reason why Boeing wasn’t first mover as it sinks the final nails in the 748F coffin.
Last edited by Okcflyer on Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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