Those of us watching the insanity of what 767 frames are getting converted, some with over 110,000 hours in pax service already, look at the potential 77W feedstock and think it’s all super youthful.
That alone explains why IAI Bedek looked at new markets.
I've heard conversions will not happen with less than 30,000 FH and 20,000 FC left on validity (I put below for other users). I didn't expect that to be pushed as much as you identified.
The few 738s I followed being converted were pretty young.
Even with the high 767 level of Validity, I had no trouble finding pax examples with over 130,000 FH (interesting, I didn't find any with over 20,000 FC).
To other posters:
For those who don't know, you can look up N registered aircraft maintenance information, which includes hours and cycles on when an issue is found:https://av-info.faa.gov/sdrx/Query.aspx
Looking Up Delta's oldest N171DN, put in the registration 171DN (no "N") and dates. These are used extensively, so at most last six months. Open a record and I saw 135,296 flight hours (FH) but only 19,284 Flight cycles (FC).
Looking at the limit of Validity, one sees a 767F is good for 150,000 FH and 60,000 FC, while pax is good for 75,000 FC. Due to low cycles, I do not think cycles matter as so few vs. allowed validity as 40k+ cycles is more than enough for a freighter and some.
As for the competition, the A330 is good for 180,000 FH, 60,000 FC. 787 200,000 FH, 66,000 FC. Note, Mea Culpa, I previously posted out of date numbers on the A330. Airbus extended the Limit of Validity for the A320 and A330; one benefit of economy of scale, you can sell the maintenance "upgrade" for older aircraft and use it to help sell new.
The 777 is good for 160,000 FH and "only" 37,500 FC in freight duty (60,000 FC in pax duty, part of the cost of the higher MZFW/MLW). Boeing used the high limit of validity for years to sell (back when the A330s 100k FH and 33k implied no resale to the freight conversion market). Then they didn't ("Too expensive to convert 777, that is why no conversion is offered.") My opinion is the 777 retained too much value as a pax plane. GECAS knows historical value patterns and would have known the A35K and 779 would drive down 777-300ER resale values, to the point GE should have been concerned examples would be scrapped.
Does anyone have a method to look up cycles and hours on aircraft other than N registered? I would like to know the fleet leading hours and cycles on the 777-300ERs currently to understand the suitability of the conversion stock. The US examples are too young to be representative of the initial conversion stock.
I consider anything below 20k cycles and 80k hours prime candidates that before Covid19 were too valuable in pax duty to be considered. I consider anything below 100k flight hours a candidate at the right price. But as Spacepope illustrated, I was too conservative in my suitability of conversion stock assumptions. However, until IAI has time to cut costs on the 777-300ERSF conversion, it will he a pricey conversion. But by 2025, they'll have the costs under control.
Just as with initial production, there is a learning curve. I see hundreds of converted 777-300ERSFs. Combined with 231 777F, this keeps the MRO capacity on the GE90 powered 777s efficient for decades. I expect in 12 years to be discussing 779 conversions in a similar thread.
Winter is coming.