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upintheair2019
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:36 pm

VCVSpotter wrote:
Ronaldo747 wrote:
N557CC on a flight to SBD, just at FL280 all the way, what is going on? Conversation postponed?

https://www.flightradar24.com/N557CC/2522e3d8

EDIT: will not rule out this might be a FR24 glitch, because this is weird.


This says conversion is finished. Wth???!!

https://twitter.com/AirportWebcams/stat ... 9609296898


The conversion hasn't even started. This flight was carried out for structural testing. N557CC will return to TLV.
 
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VCVSpotter
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:08 pm

upintheair2019 wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:
Ronaldo747 wrote:
N557CC on a flight to SBD, just at FL280 all the way, what is going on? Conversation postponed?

https://www.flightradar24.com/N557CC/2522e3d8

EDIT: will not rule out this might be a FR24 glitch, because this is weird.


This says conversion is finished. Wth???!!

https://twitter.com/AirportWebcams/stat ... 9609296898


The conversion hasn't even started. This flight was carried out for structural testing. N557CC will return to TLV.


Oh, ok. That's what I assumed, but wasn't sure (that conversion hadn't started). Do you know when N557CC will depart SBD?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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yochai
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:28 pm

VCVSpotter wrote:
upintheair2019 wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:

This says conversion is finished. Wth???!!

https://twitter.com/AirportWebcams/stat ... 9609296898


The conversion hasn't even started. This flight was carried out for structural testing. N557CC will return to TLV.


Oh, ok. That's what I assumed, but wasn't sure (that conversion hadn't started). Do you know when N557CC will depart SBD?


Going to be based in SBD for about 2 months according to my friend who works on this conversion program at IAI, it will preform several test flights there before returning to TLV around October/November to start the conversion process.
 
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VCVSpotter
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:57 pm

yochai wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:
upintheair2019 wrote:

The conversion hasn't even started. This flight was carried out for structural testing. N557CC will return to TLV.


Oh, ok. That's what I assumed, but wasn't sure (that conversion hadn't started). Do you know when N557CC will depart SBD?


Going to be based in SBD for about 2 months according to my friend who works on this conversion program at IAI, it will preform several test flights there before returning to TLV around October/November to start the conversion process.


Ok, thank you! Hopefully I can make it out there sometime to see her.... :crossfingers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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Boeing757rb211
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:04 pm

Oh man the 777-300ER would look AMAZING in Either Fedex or UPS Colors.....
 
Ronaldo747
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:58 pm

yochai wrote:
Going to be based in SBD for about 2 months according to my friend who works on this conversion program at IAI, it will preform several test flights there before returning to TLV around October/November to start the conversion process.


Thank you for the info, Yochai!
 
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SilverwingSpttr
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:37 am

Aww man! I was hoping to get a photo of a 77W with a big old door cut in the side of it! Guess we'll all have to wait until 2021 for that.

yochai wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:
upintheair2019 wrote:

The conversion hasn't even started. This flight was carried out for structural testing. N557CC will return to TLV.


Oh, ok. That's what I assumed, but wasn't sure (that conversion hadn't started). Do you know when N557CC will depart SBD?


Going to be based in SBD for about 2 months according to my friend who works on this conversion program at IAI, it will preform several test flights there before returning to TLV around October/November to start the conversion process.
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Boeing757rb211
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:10 am

I CANNOT wait to see those amazing 777-300ER's in the cargo liveries of UPS and FedEx. With those incredibly long and flexing wings and Massive GE90's hanging under the wings,,, that is going to be a Beautiful sight coming in on approach or taking off on Departure as well as moving around on the Ground at airports as well. Definitely cant wait to see my first of each company, ill absolutely make the drive within 10 Hrs of my house to be able to possibly be able to catch both of them when they're finally around.
 
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VCVSpotter
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:10 am

Just a quick confirmation for anyone wanting to head out to SBD for it: It's in a hangar (probably AeroPro). Doors closed, you can't see anything (I went today for the AN-12B departure. Yes you read that right lol). I'll be typing up a post in the SoCal Boneyard Storage thread in a bit if you want further details about SBD. But for now, it looks like they're doing some type of work on the 777 inside the hangar.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Just a normal teenager juggling AP classes and airplanes. No biggie • Love the 747 & 777-9 • Farewell KLM 747-400M
 
UPS757Pilot
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:37 am

[photoid][/photoid]
VCVSpotter wrote:
Just a quick confirmation for anyone wanting to head out to SBD for it: It's in a hangar (probably AeroPro). Doors closed, you can't see anything (I went today for the AN-12B departure. Yes you read that right lol). I'll be typing up a post in the SoCal Boneyard Storage thread in a bit if you want further details about SBD. But for now, it looks like they're doing some type of work on the 777 inside the hangar.
Yeah we were looking for it on our arrival as well but no joy.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:42 am

I could very well seeing FX buying some, off of GECAS' hands. The idea would be that they carry lighter cargo than 5X does and could use the extra space, especially going trans-oceanic. It (with a top-up B763 order) could also make FX with just 2 pilot crews: B777, and B757/B767.
 
Sokes
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:24 am

How much weight can fit on a cargo pallet of B747-400 converted freighter, B777F and B777-300ER converted freighter?

What range/ far destinations could a B777-300ER converted freighter reach from Anchorage with max payload/ 80% of max payload?
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VSMUT
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:10 am

Boeing757rb211 wrote:
Oh man the 777-300ER would look AMAZING in Either Fedex or UPS Colors.....


Boeing757rb211 wrote:
I CANNOT wait to see those amazing 777-300ER's in the cargo liveries of UPS and FedEx. With those incredibly long and flexing wings and Massive GE90's hanging under the wings,,, that is going to be a Beautiful sight coming in on approach or taking off on Departure as well as moving around on the Ground at airports as well. Definitely cant wait to see my first of each company, ill absolutely make the drive within 10 Hrs of my house to be able to possibly be able to catch both of them when they're finally around.


Did you seriously just post two days in a row about the 777-300ERSF in the livery of two airlines that haven't stated the slightest interest in the type?


aemoreira1981 wrote:
I could very well seeing FX buying some, off of GECAS' hands. The idea would be that they carry lighter cargo than 5X does and could use the extra space, especially going trans-oceanic. It (with a top-up B763 order) could also make FX with just 2 pilot crews: B777, and B757/B767.


Never say never, but FedEx never really had aircraft bigger than the MD-11 and 777-200. They acquired some 747Fs through the Flying Tiger takeover, but those were relatively short-lived. They have a model that didn't require bigger freighters in the past, I fail to see how that would suddenly change because someone did a 777-300ER based freighter.

IMO, these will more likely end up with second-tier cargo airlines. Think Atlas Air, Kalitta and Air Bridge Cargo.

Airlines like Emirates Cargo, KLM Cargo, Singapore Cargo, China Airlines could also be candidates. Operators with ageing fleets of 747 freighters and passenger 777-300ERs in their fleets.
 
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yochai
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:14 pm

For anyone hoping it will come out of the hangar with skin work done on it might be disappointed, the first skin cut will be done in TLV around December.
 
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Revelation
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:44 pm

GE Aviation's blog describes the early phases of the work:

The first step is measuring every part of the fuselage to get an accurate rendition of the plane on the computer drawing board. Engineers use finite element modeling and extensive ground and flight tests to analyze how the conversion will affect the aircraft. With planned changes to include a new floor, adjustable storage configurations, a wider door and a cargo-loading system, engineers assess the shifts in stress on the plane’s fuselage to determine what additional modifications are needed. “What we’re doing is really re-engineering the aircraft,” Greener says.

Ref: https://blog.geaviation.com/product/goi ... -to-cargo/

I guess they have to do this digitization since Boeing isn't partnering on the effort.

I wonder if it was done in TLV or if it will be done in SBD?

TFA also says:

For example, the team needs to cut major sections of the fuselage to fit the new cargo door, install a rigid barrier that can withstand forces up to 9 g’s and replace the entire composite floor structure with reinforced aluminum.

Since they are replacing the entire floor, they could chose to rebuild it to any level of weight bearing they prefer, no?

In theory they could choose to compete with the 77F head on, no?

yochai wrote:
Going to be based in SBD for about 2 months according to my friend who works on this conversion program at IAI, it will preform several test flights there before returning to TLV around October/November to start the conversion process.

TFA suggests the first cut will be next June to create the opening for the cargo door.
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TropicalSky
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:02 pm

says in the article the complete process will take 39 months from start to finish... over 3yrs-that's extremely long

Revelation wrote:
GE Aviation's blog describes the early phases of the work:

The first step is measuring every part of the fuselage to get an accurate rendition of the plane on the computer drawing board. Engineers use finite element modeling and extensive ground and flight tests to analyze how the conversion will affect the aircraft. With planned changes to include a new floor, adjustable storage configurations, a wider door and a cargo-loading system, engineers assess the shifts in stress on the plane’s fuselage to determine what additional modifications are needed. “What we’re doing is really re-engineering the aircraft,” Greener says.

Ref: https://blog.geaviation.com/product/goi ... -to-cargo/

I guess they have to do this digitization since Boeing isn't partnering on the effort.

I wonder if it was done in TLV or if it will be done in SBD?

TFA also says:

For example, the team needs to cut major sections of the fuselage to fit the new cargo door, install a rigid barrier that can withstand forces up to 9 g’s and replace the entire composite floor structure with reinforced aluminum.

Since they are replacing the entire floor, they could chose to rebuild it to any level of weight bearing they prefer, no?

In theory they could choose to compete with the 77F head on, no?

yochai wrote:
Going to be based in SBD for about 2 months according to my friend who works on this conversion program at IAI, it will preform several test flights there before returning to TLV around October/November to start the conversion process.

TFA suggests the first cut will be next June to create the opening for the cargo door.
 
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747classic
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:11 pm

Interesting, this will be the first widebody freighter that will be totally "reversed engineered" , without any major input of the OEM (Boeing).
For exact measurements and the produce a digital "point zero" data base, the lead aircraft has been send to SBD.
The OEM (Boeing) will not be amused.
On top of that, the operating weights will be increased beyond the operating weights of the 777-300ER and even the 777F.
What will happen with the OEM support, if an original (not modified during the P-F conversion) part fails, operating at these increased weights ?
Question : Or, is there perhaps a secret deal between Boeing, GE and IAI about these future warranty/support issues ?
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Revelation
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:59 pm

TropicalSky wrote:
says in the article the complete process will take 39 months from start to finish... over 3yrs-that's extremely long

https://bigtwinfreighter.com/overview/ says "Due to enter service in 2022" so they must be saying the start date was Q4 of 2019.

747classic wrote:
The OEM (Boeing) will not be amused.

I agree. They are directly targeting 77F operators:

The 777-300ERSF is the only large aircraft that offers a significant level of operational commonality with the 777-200LRF. In addition, it can operate seamlessly alongside the 777-300ER.

In both cases, the 777-300ERSF can be inducted with minimal additional investment and minimal operational burden. This commonality allows operators to simplify their fleets and benefit from the associated cost efficiency.

Ref: https://bigtwinfreighter.com/facts-figures/
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jbs2886
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
TropicalSky wrote:
says in the article the complete process will take 39 months from start to finish... over 3yrs-that's extremely long

https://bigtwinfreighter.com/overview/ says "Due to enter service in 2022" so they must be saying the start date was Q4 of 2019.

747classic wrote:
The OEM (Boeing) will not be amused.

I agree. They are directly targeting 77F operators:

The 777-300ERSF is the only large aircraft that offers a significant level of operational commonality with the 777-200LRF. In addition, it can operate seamlessly alongside the 777-300ER.

In both cases, the 777-300ERSF can be inducted with minimal additional investment and minimal operational burden. This commonality allows operators to simplify their fleets and benefit from the associated cost efficiency.

Ref: https://bigtwinfreighter.com/facts-figures/


Of the 777F operators, who would benefit from the 777-300ER freighter? If I understand, the assumption is the aircraft is best suited to package cargo. Taking the top 10 777F operators, only 2 would fit:
  • FedEx - yes
  • Qatar - no?
  • AeroLogic - yes
  • China Southern - no?
  • Korean - no?
  • Emirates - no?
  • Ethiopian - no?
  • Air China - no?
  • China Cargo - no?

Non-top 10 would be other DHL carriers basically?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:21 pm

Revelation wrote:
TropicalSky wrote:
says in the article the complete process will take 39 months from start to finish... over 3yrs-that's extremely long

https://bigtwinfreighter.com/overview/ says "Due to enter service in 2022" so they must be saying the start date was Q4 of 2019.

747classic wrote:
The OEM (Boeing) will not be amused.

I agree. They are directly targeting 77F operators:

The 777-300ERSF is the only large aircraft that offers a significant level of operational commonality with the 777-200LRF. In addition, it can operate seamlessly alongside the 777-300ER.

In both cases, the 777-300ERSF can be inducted with minimal additional investment and minimal operational burden. This commonality allows operators to simplify their fleets and benefit from the associated cost efficiency.

Ref: https://bigtwinfreighter.com/facts-figures/

I speculate Boeing isn't helping as after 777-300ERSF entry into service (EIS), only airlines needing 777F range will have to buy it; my back of the envelope looking at routes has about 50% of 777F routes within 777ERSF range. So this will hurt Boeing.

With an EIS of 2022, that, in aerospace terms, is soon. Soon enough to start effecting orders of either (conversions or factory new 777Fs). Meh.... Boeing should offer the 777xF.

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Max Q
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:14 pm

747classic wrote:
Interesting, this will be the first widebody freighter that will be totally "reversed engineered" , without any major input of the OEM (Boeing).
For exact measurements and the produce a digital "point zero" data base, the lead aircraft has been send to SBD.
The OEM (Boeing) will not be amused.
On top of that, the operating weights will be increased beyond the operating weights of the 777-300ER and even the 777F.
What will happen with the OEM support, if an original (not modified during the P-F conversion) part fails, operating at these increased weights ?
Question : Or, is there perhaps a secret deal between Boeing, GE and IAI about these future warranty/support issues ?



That’s very unusual and appears unprecedented.


I don’t understand how an aftermarket MRO can increase operating weights that are limitations in Boeing’s design without invalidating the airworthiness certificate
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lightsaber
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:05 am

Max Q wrote:
747classic wrote:
Interesting, this will be the first widebody freighter that will be totally "reversed engineered" , without any major input of the OEM (Boeing).
For exact measurements and the produce a digital "point zero" data base, the lead aircraft has been send to SBD.
The OEM (Boeing) will not be amused.
On top of that, the operating weights will be increased beyond the operating weights of the 777-300ER and even the 777F.
What will happen with the OEM support, if an original (not modified during the P-F conversion) part fails, operating at these increased weights ?
Question : Or, is there perhaps a secret deal between Boeing, GE and IAI about these future warranty/support issues ?



That’s very unusual and appears unprecedented.


I don’t understand how an aftermarket MRO can increase operating weights that are limitations in Boeing’s design without invalidating the airworthiness certificate

Weights allowed are based on stresses. If you can show a mitigation of the stress (more material, making an aircraft more flexible, active control to reduce forces into control systems) it can be done. Every freight conversion must show that forces are not increased into the airframe. For example, the window belt can be replaced which changes the dynamics.

Boeing will naturally say any failure is because of increased stresses due to the conversion.

The FAA has tables for various materials on their allowed life (hours, cycles) versus stress (KSI or MPa, pick your units, I've seen tables for both). As long as the reinforcement keeps stress below the threshold, you can keep increasing. There will need to be flight testing to allow for example landing. But there is a reason the system allows modifications.

This is somewhat new. There have been modifications to aircraft Boeing refused to support, including for Bedek where IAI (was Bedek) had to go on their own. So ironically, they were trained in the process. Every since Boeing launched their own 767 conversion, they haven't played nice with others (withheld more than basic support and all support at a cost+ basis). The same with the 737 conversions. Boeing wants freight airlines to work with them. But notice conversions thrive?

I really like this conversion link. Now it is missing the 777 offering and some other similar conversions (e.g., length variations of airframes), otherwise, it is a good summary of who does what in the pax to freight market:
https://cargofacts.com/allposts/equipme ... y-arrived/

The above makes me wonder if we'll see a 787 SF or an A319SF one day... But I digress.

I'm personally excited about IAI's plan. They seem to have a plan.

The question is when their conversion will be ready. There are obstacles to overcome.

WIth the ability to carry 9 more tons than the 744F (I assume it wasn't mentioning 744SF) and 18t to 20t more than the current 777F, this isn't a package freighter plane. This is a plane for serious freight:
https://www.aviationreportglobal.com/2020/06/09/4730/

Now, obviously the range at maximum payload will be low. Probably just TATL capable. But for flights ME3 hub to the EU, India, or quite a decent distance, perfect.

I've had dinners with senior structural engineers involved with the 777 (years ago). They are happy to know the plane's structural capability is being used.

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Okcflyer
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:30 am

Agree with lightsaber. This is a 747F and 777F killer. Very little reason to keep flying the old(er) 747F frames in normal operations ... only a handful for surge demand and outsize freight routes (nose load common). Lots of 748’s around to take care of that.

As for the 77F ... the conversation costs half as much, carries considerably more volume, and near equal payload weight. As long as you’re not needing to fly heavy payload 5000+nm non stop, which is very rare, the conversion is better in about every metric.

These 77W frames are not old by normal terms and use modern systems. While they’ll be a bit more maintenance than factory new, and certainly a bit more come heavy checks, it’s pail in comparison to the capital savings.

We all assumed the floor structure would stay the same. Now that they’re replacing it ... this dude isn’t compromised. It’s going to be a heavy hitter.

I think Boeing will be quickly forced into offering a 77WF factory-new (and even then it’s a bit difficult to justify the new frame premium as the feedstock for conversion is so young) or quickly move on some 777xF. The X is not a good setup for freight ... it’s new wing too big and heavy for <5000nm sectors and too much new fuse weight for the windows and stretch. So that’s going to require a not-insignificant MTOW bump (10T) to be competitive. It will also likely need to use 9 length which means another 6-7t tonne Bump.

All Situations are poor for Boeing. It’s clearly they’re holding out hope IAI fails to achieve objective.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:55 am

Okcflyer wrote:
Agree with lightsaber. This is a 747F and 777F killer. Very little reason to keep flying the old(er) 747F frames in normal operations ... only a handful for surge demand and outsize freight routes (nose load common). Lots of 748’s around to take care of that.

As for the 77F ... the conversation costs half as much, carries considerably more volume, and near equal payload weight. As long as you’re not needing to fly heavy payload 5000+nm non stop, which is very rare, the conversion is better in about every metric.

These 77W frames are not old by normal terms and use modern systems. While they’ll be a bit more maintenance than factory new, and certainly a bit more come heavy checks, it’s pail in comparison to the capital savings.

We all assumed the floor structure would stay the same. Now that they’re replacing it ... this dude isn’t compromised. It’s going to be a heavy hitter.

I think Boeing will be quickly forced into offering a 77WF factory-new (and even then it’s a bit difficult to justify the new frame premium as the feedstock for conversion is so young) or quickly move on some 777xF. The X is not a good setup for freight ... it’s new wing too big and heavy for <5000nm sectors and too much new fuse weight for the windows and stretch. So that’s going to require a not-insignificant MTOW bump (10T) to be competitive. It will also likely need to use 9 length which means another 6-7t tonne Bump.

All Situations are poor for Boeing. It’s clearly they’re holding out hope IAI fails to achieve objective.

If there is one thing I've learned, never hope for a competitor to fail, that is usually when they beat expectations.

Boeing must develop a 777xF and fast. This will keep the 777 line going until the passenger market recovers. They will have to increase the MZFW too. This makes an interesting discussion on what length 777xF. IMHO, the 778 is getting a stretch. The 779 is too much volume for freight.

All will happen after this 777-300ERSF EIS. Despite the relatively low volumes of freighters, this facinates me.
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amdiesen
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:32 pm

Aeronautical engineering is subject to strict interpretations to the laws of physics. It is interesting to observe that marketing professionals have a waiver. Parroting a story second hand; when engineers go to Elon Musk and tell him it can't be done he asks, "do the laws of physics prevent the objective?" If no, it's understood you go back to work (best case scenario).

Max Q wrote:
747classic wrote:
Interesting, this will be the first widebody freighter that will be totally "reversed engineered" , without any major input of the OEM (Boeing).
On top of that, the operating weights will be increased beyond the operating weights of the 777-300ER and even the 777F.


I don’t understand how an aftermarket MRO can increase operating weights that are limitations in Boeing’s design without invalidating the airworthiness certificate

Yes, agreed, its a great unanswered question. I suppose we just have to wait here on the ground until the marketing "effects" wear off.

The participants and this thread are appreciated/respected. Further, the optimism that the B773ERSF is a disrupter is shared. Please take this into context... I don't understand, how will the B773ERSF carry more mass than the B772F? The frame weight difference is ~23,400kg before the conversion and the conversion will add additional OEW. The engines, wingspan, wing area, fuel capacity are the same and MTOW(351.5 v 348) is similar; therefore the B773ERSF will burn more fuel. Yes/agreed... 25% more volume is appealing.

Lower capital cost argument/discussions applies to a new B772F versus a B773ERSF; capital costs arguments against used/existing B744* is a different equation. Remember, the same marketing department that has an interesting interpretation of the laws of physics carries the same creative nature to the laws of economics. Factors to consider, a new B772F has lower maintenance costs, for the sake of the discussion the B773ERSF will have ~half the life. Cost-of-capital and pricing power for an individual airline are meaningful factors that favor new build purchases for the 'elephants'. Said in another way; offering a conversion that has higher maintenance and higher fuel consumption with half the life for half the cost... well, calling it a bargain is deceiving. Remember, this is a comparatively high cost conversion, historically speaking. Honest factors to be considered are; Where is the new build in its life cycle? What interest rates will the purchasing airline pay? Does the 25% volume advantage apply to me? Is the engine choice symbiotic to my current fleet? Does this give an optionality on my existing passenger fleet?

Emirates is an excellent example of the conversion being an accreditive option. Where Western Global's commitment to the GE CF6-80C2 makes the offering a non-event (for the foreseeable future).

It does impact the expected economic life of the B744CF. While the evolution of the oft discussed B777 conversion inspires "Wow!", developing honest amortization projections would include a footnote to the effect of 'unknown disrupting technology could have a material impact on economic life expectancy'

The offering as a 'disrupter' appears to be significant to specific airlines and specific airliner-leasor assets. IE, GE simply saying to a current customer 'you know the history of this specific frame', we can extend our relationship when the passenger value proposition decays.

I don't understand how the B773ERSF will carry more mass than the B772F.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:06 am

Two ways:

1) 77F bulks out volume fairly easily before hitting MZFW. The addl volume of the SF allow more effective payload in a lot of circumstances.

2) 77F can carry MZFW 5000+nm. Reaching MTOW is rare in 77F. The SF trades range for payload, and is more or less MTOW limited. They’re rerating it for a much higher MLW to enable the high MZFW and payload ability...though limited to somewhere around 4000nm range at max.

On new vs converted, your economic analysis makes the assumption that double physical life equals double economic life. That’s generally not true for any asset class, and certainly not airplanes.

Whiles it true a new build CAN last longer, it’s also may not be economical over that addl physical life. The 77ERSF frames have plenty of usable life remaining to bridge to the next big thing. You don’t need a new build aircraft to do that unless you’re flying extremely high utilization rates, which isn’t too common in the freight world.

Plenty of DC10, 742F, etc have physical life remaining but no economic life. The 77F will fall into this is less than 20 year time as well.

Regarding opex, the 77F maintenance savings need to be less than the addition revenue generating ability of the ERSF. With 20%+ extra volume available, therefore able to use up the weight capability more often, it’s going to have lower fuel cost per tonne/mile. I can’t imagine any realistic scenario where those maintenance savings exceed the additional revenue advantage the larger frame has. The only argument is if the additional space cannot be sold. However; that space has lowest incremental costs and can always win the price war; so unlikely a major factor. Otherwise the airline should be considering A33F conversions as the 77F should also be too big/capable for optimum, and new builds way too expensive for light average loads.

Finally, Cash is King. Don’t sink more cash into assets unless absolutely required and additional ROR is greater than standard ROR.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:48 am

Okcflyer wrote:
Two ways:

1) 77F bulks out volume fairly easily before hitting MZFW. The addl volume of the SF allow more effective payload in a lot of circumstances.

2) 77F can carry MZFW 5000+nm. Reaching MTOW is rare in 77F. The SF trades range for payload, and is more or less MTOW limited. They’re rerating it for a much higher MLW to enable the high MZFW and payload ability...though limited to somewhere around 4000nm range at max.



The 777-F has additional loading restrictions, when operating near the MTOW, but practically it hardly never operated at that (critical) point in the payload -range diagram.
The 777-F has not only been structurally strengthend to cater for the increased operating weights (MZFW +MLW), but has also been equipped with an advanced maneuver load alleviation system that redistributes the aero­dynamic load on the wing during non-normal flight conditions, reducing the load on its outboard portion. This allows the 777F to operate in a wide variety of flight environments without compromising payload capability.

Conseq. the max structural payload of the 777-300ERSF (220.000lbs) will also be restricted , especially when operating near the MTOW, or the range with max structural payload will be further reduced.

To counter these loading restrictions and to satisfy the authorities IAI has also to develop a new load allevation system. However, the 777-F load elevation system may not be transferred and adapted for the 777-300ERSF.
So, for the first time during a P-F conversion, on top of the structural strengthening, part of the basic Boeing developed flight software needs to be adapted and/or replaced by IAI and has to be certified again..
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:04 am

747classic wrote:
So, for the first time during a P-F conversion, on top of the structural strengthening, part of the basic Boeing developed flight software needs to be adapted and/or replaced by IAI and has to be certified again..


Correction :
So, for the first time during a P-F conversion, on top of the structural strengthening, part of the basic Boeing developed flight control software needs to be adapted and/or replaced by IAI and has to be certified again.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:33 pm

747classic wrote:
Correction :
So, for the first time during a P-F conversion, on top of the structural strengthening, part of the basic Boeing developed flight control software needs to be adapted and/or replaced by IAI and has to be certified again.


And with modified flight control software on every regulatory agency's mind at the moment, one wonders how difficult in terms of testing and process it will be for IAI to get said software certified.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:15 pm

Stitch wrote:
747classic wrote:
Correction :
So, for the first time during a P-F conversion, on top of the structural strengthening, part of the basic Boeing developed flight control software needs to be adapted and/or replaced by IAI and has to be certified again.


And with modified flight control software on every regulatory agency's mind at the moment, one wonders how difficult in terms of testing and process it will be for IAI to get said software certified.


:checkmark: Fully correct, especially with a non-cooperative OEM.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:56 pm

Would it be logical that GECAS went to Boeing with the B773ERSF concept first? (respects/apologies if this has been discussed somewhere in the last 279 posts)

timeline (for a decision that requires significant thought and research before announcing an intention to execute)
07jun17 GE drops plans to power the A330-200F
15jul Muilenburg elevated 2 Boeing's president

< logical to believe that GECAS and Boeing are in B777P2F discussions >

18oct29 Lion Air 610 event, RIP /\
18dec Boeing throws Lion Air under the bus. “I feel betrayed,” the Indonesian carrier’s co-founder, Rusdi Kirana https://fortune.com/2018/12/06/lion-air-boeing/
19mar10 Ethiopian Air 302 event, RIP /\
19oct16 GECAS and IAI launch the B777ERSF project
19nov22 GECAS places an order for A339neos (*1)
19dec Muilenburg departs
20mar Airbus publicly announces aspiration to launch a A350 freighter program

hypothesis: Boeing anticipated converting B772LR once feed-stock prices dropped or there were buyback for order opportunities following original design objectives.
hypothesis: GECAS has B773ERSF aspirations and has had this on the objective list long before 19oct16

(*1): This order was placed at a time when competing lessors were semi-publicly stating that they had (over)order book concerns and were having difficulty placing near term deliveries.
Last edited by amdiesen on Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:15 pm

amdiesen wrote:
Would it be logical that GECAS went to Boeing with the B773ERSF concept first?


I think this is a program that benefits GECAS far more than it does Boeing. GECAS and IAI also would have been working on this long before their public announcement last October.

Boeing and IAI have been discussing 777 Passenger to Freighter conversion programs since the mid-2000s. In 2008 Boeing announced they had product development studies in the works for both a 777-200BCF and 777-200ERBCF for years and were now ready to start bringing them forward into production possibility now that airframe feedstock would cross the 15-year mark by 2010 and the 787 and A350 would start to enter service in the 2010s.

IAI also announced they were looking into a conversion program in the late 2000s, however many analysts felt that unlike the 747 and 767 programs, IAI would find the 777 a much more difficult frame to convert without OEM support due to the much higher technical complexity.

I am guessing that Boeing's desire to continue to sell the 777 Freighter, along with perhaps lack of enthusiasm from BCF conversion houses like Xiamen Aircraft Engineering and Singapore Technologies scuttled Boeing's plans to have the BCF in service by the mid-2010s and IAI likely found the program too expensive to launch on their own. IAI however did once again raise the possibility of a 777 P2F program in 2016 with a possible start date the following year and I would not be at all surprised if this was after talking with GECAS, who saw a large portion of their 777-300ER leases coming home with no obvious second home between the A350-1000 and 777-9. They might also have seen Boeing wavering on a 777-8 Freighter as the 777-8 passenger frame stalled out and the need to protect both the 747-8 and 777 Freighter.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:44 pm

amdiesen wrote:
Factors to consider, a new B772F has lower maintenance costs, for the sake of the discussion the B773ERSF will have ~half the life. Cost-of-capital and pricing power for an individual airline are meaningful factors that favor new build purchases for the 'elephants'. Said in another way; offering a conversion that has higher maintenance and higher fuel consumption with half the life for half the cost... well, calling it a bargain is deceiving. Remember, this is a comparatively high cost conversion, historically speaking. Honest factors to be considered are; Where is the new build in its life cycle? What interest rates will the purchasing airline pay? Does the 25% volume advantage apply to me? Is the engine choice symbiotic to my current fleet? Does this give an optionality on my existing passenger fleet?

Thanks for the interesting post.

I agree with others that the cost side of the equation is the important part.

Paying for the full life cycle of the airplane might make sense if you operate it for the full life cycle of the airplane, but it seems few operators do that. Maybe FX does given how they're still flying MD-10s but not many others do. LH's end of line MD-11s are getting repainted and put into service by new operators. Some of the Middle East operators seem to operate them for 12 years or less and move on. They're not getting full value out of those assets, IMO.

Half the life for half the cost works because it's the cost that matters most. You are getting an aircraft that has just been through a full HMV. 77W ecosystem should be around a long time, operators like BA and UA took end of line aircraft. A new build 77F would depend on the same ecosystem so that's a wash. Higher fuel cost, but only incrementally so. Operators seem happy to keep fueling CF6s on 767s, GE90-115B should be a step better than that. Like you suggest, though, it's a big plane and needs to fly close to full to make money. The project is a gamble that e-commerce will grow to the point the market will absorb the volume and still be looking for more.

Of course you'd like cost to be lower but as you say this will not be a cheap conversion. It's an interesting gamble on the part of GECAS and IAI. I hope it works out well for them.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:46 am

Revelation wrote:
amdiesen wrote:
Factors to consider, a new B772F has ...

Thanks for the interesting post.

I agree with others that the cost side of the equation is the important part.

Paying for the full life cycle of the airplane might make sense if you operate it for the full life cycle of the airplane, but it seems few operators do that. Maybe FX does given how they're still flying MD-10s but not many others do. LH's end of line MD-11s are getting repainted and put into service by new operators. Some of the Middle East operators seem to operate them for 12 years or less and move on. They're not getting full value out of those assets, IMO.

Half the life for half the cost works because it's the cost that matters most. You are getting an aircraft that has just been through a full HMV. 77W ecosystem should be around a long time, operators like BA and UA took end of line aircraft. A new build 77F would depend on the same ecosystem so that's a wash. Higher fuel cost, but only incrementally so. Operators seem happy to keep fueling CF6s on 767s, GE90-115B should be a step better than that. Like you suggest, though, it's a big plane and needs to fly close to full to make money. The project is a gamble that e-commerce will grow to the point the market will absorb the volume and still be looking for more.

Of course you'd like cost to be lower but as you say this will not be a cheap conversion. It's an interesting gamble on the part of GECAS and IAI. I hope it works out well for them.


Thank you, your posts are appreciated and comparatively insightful/interesting to read. You and I have been participants on a number of B777 threads in the last few years; retaining optimism for the project and respect for the engineering challenges. A key concern has always been the cost(performance) of impairment. The discussion(current thread) has swung toward panacea. If IAI is finding untapped performance in the 777, many of us would like to pick your and the other experts brain about how this impacts the GE9x powered B777F.

?- There is uncertainty surrounding the B777F.GE9x. +Is there untapped performance? +AEngineering may become un-tethered by B778P parameters. -The market is saturated. Seabosdca has a 'Future Heavy Freight Aircraft' thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1449085 If inspired, it's a great read.

Actual depreciation in value is more aggressive than straight line. Buying a used B777F can be a better value for mass operators. The B773ERSF confounds the A359F. There is less impact on new B772Fs and used factory-build B744Fs. The meaningful factors affecting new B772Fs are 1)its in the twilight of its manufacturing life-cycle and 2)market saturation.

Cost. This is going to be a comparatively heavy aircraft. Maintenance costs will align with an aircraft that is moving from 50% of economic life to 100% of economic life + an aftermarket conversion factor.

This effort highlights, imo, the need for current Boeing management to tend and build its relationship with GE/GECAS. GE powers AFreight, GECAS is one of the largest AFreight lessors.

Boeing's B777 was an audacious goal at great risk. IAI has persistently gnawed away at, what for them is, an audacious goal at great risk.
What we agree on is far greater than these nuanced discussions for clarity. A herculean effort in which the Market and AEngineering are aligned.... "WOW!!"
Last edited by amdiesen on Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:02 am

Stitch wrote:
amdiesen wrote:
Would it be logical that GECAS went to Boeing with the B773ERSF concept first?


I think this is a program that benefits GECAS far more than it does Boeing. GECAS and IAI also would have been working on this long before their public announcement last October.

Boeing and IAI have been discussing 777 Passenger to Freighter conversion programs since the mid-2000s. In 2008 Boeing announced they had product development studies in the works for both a 777-200BCF and 777-200ERBCF for years and were now ready to start bringing them forward into production possibility now that airframe feedstock would cross the 15-year mark by 2010 and the 787 and A350 would start to enter service in the 2010s.

IAI also announced they were looking into a conversion program in the late 2000s, however many analysts felt that unlike the 747 and 767 programs, IAI would find the 777 a much more difficult frame to convert without OEM support due to the much higher technical complexity.

I am guessing that Boeing's desire to continue to sell the 777 Freighter, along with perhaps lack of enthusiasm from BCF conversion houses like Xiamen Aircraft Engineering and Singapore Technologies scuttled Boeing's plans to have the BCF in service by the mid-2010s and IAI likely found the program too expensive to launch on their own. IAI however did once again raise the possibility of a 777 P2F program in 2016 with a possible start date the following year and I would not be at all surprised if this was after talking with GECAS, who saw a large portion of their 777-300ER leases coming home with no obvious second home between the A350-1000 and 777-9. They might also have seen Boeing wavering on a 777-8 Freighter as the 777-8 passenger frame stalled out and the need to protect both the 747-8 and 777 Freighter.


I think it can’t be overstated how much IAI learned with that 772 they had. They flew it to TLV, poked it, prodded it and tested it into oblivion getting them an excellent baseline for the basic structure and systems. That they scrapped it without testing a final conversion and proceeded with the 77W program says a lot on where the sweet spot is to make a profitable aircraft.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:05 pm

GECAS is showing confidence in the 737-800 conversion market as well:

Lessor GECAS is to take up to 20 more Boeing 737-800 converted freighters, having firmed up orders for 11 of the cargo jets.

GECAS’s top-up agreement – its third, and one which includes nine additional options – takes its overall orders for the type to 60 with 14 options.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 44.article

It's interesting that Boeing is their partner on 737-800 freighter conversion yet clearly not on 777-300.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:41 pm

Not sure why IAI should rewrite the Control SW.
If they can keep the TOWs of the 77W and the COG range they get is loadable, can't they live with any limitation that the 77W had?
I mean, it is carring around 300+ souls, their luggage and cargo that way, why pure cargo would be more exigent?
Once the weight is the same, the surfaces are the same, the COG is inside its envelope, why would it fly any different from any BOM-DXB meat mover?
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
It's interesting that Boeing is their partner on 737-800 freighter conversion yet clearly not on 777-300.


I expect the following play a major role:

a) Boeing does not offer a new-build freighter based on the 737-800 airframe
b) The 737-800BCF is an official Boeing-sanctioned conversion program

:biggrin:
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:42 pm

Revelation wrote:
GECAS is showing confidence in the 737-800 conversion market as well:

Lessor GECAS is to take up to 20 more Boeing 737-800 converted freighters, having firmed up orders for 11 of the cargo jets.

GECAS’s top-up agreement – its third, and one which includes nine additional options – takes its overall orders for the type to 60 with 14 options.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 44.article

It's interesting that Boeing is their partner on 737-800 freighter conversion yet clearly not on 777-300.


No 737MAX freighters on the horizon, so it makes sense to work with them on the 738. I think Boeing is more worried about damage to the possible 777X freighter market down the road.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:55 pm

Aquila3 wrote:
Not sure why IAI should rewrite the Control SW.
If they can keep the TOWs of the 77W and the COG range they get is loadable, can't they live with any limitation that the 77W had?
I mean, it is carring around 300+ souls, their luggage and cargo that way, why pure cargo would be more exigent?
Once the weight is the same, the surfaces are the same, the COG is inside its envelope, why would it fly any different from any BOM-DXB meat mover?


The MZFW will be increased at the 777-300ERSF, even much higher than the MZFW of the 777F, because of that the wing bending moment will increase.
It's not possible to strengthen the total center wing box and the wing box during the P-F conversion, so new flight control software has to be developed to reduce (limit) the wing bending moment during certain combinations of ZFW, fuel load, CG and non normal flight conditions.
This issue has been solved at the 777F with the addition of special flight control software and additional sensors, called : advanced maneuver load alleviation system.
I don't have the impression that the OEM (Boeing) will allow that the advanced maneuver load alleviation system of the 777F may be copied and modified by IAI for the 777-300ERSF.
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:16 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It's interesting that Boeing is their partner on 737-800 freighter conversion yet clearly not on 777-300.

No 737MAX freighters on the horizon, so it makes sense to work with them on the 738. I think Boeing is more worried about damage to the possible 777X freighter market down the road.

Right, yet damaging the 777X freighter market also damages GE because it loses GE9X sales.

I guess GECAS is so exposed on 77W that they were able to convince GE corporate to let them make an investment that hurts GE9X.

Must have been an interesting set of meetings...
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:38 pm

Isn't GE trying to sell off GECAS, or did they change their minds?
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:56 pm

Revelation wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It's interesting that Boeing is their partner on 737-800 freighter conversion yet clearly not on 777-300.

No 737MAX freighters on the horizon, so it makes sense to work with them on the 738. I think Boeing is more worried about damage to the possible 777X freighter market down the road.

Right, yet damaging the 777X freighter market also damages GE because it loses GE9X sales.

I guess GECAS is so exposed on 77W that they were able to convince GE corporate to let them make an investment that hurts GE9X.

Must have been an interesting set of meetings...


Removing excess passenger 777-300ERs from the market means less competition for the 777X. You know, the 777-9 that actually exists here and now, that could really use some more orders.

You guys are talking about the 777XF as if it is a done deal, when it is still more A.net fantasy than anything else.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:23 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
GECAS is showing confidence in the 737-800 conversion market as well:

Lessor GECAS is to take up to 20 more Boeing 737-800 converted freighters, having firmed up orders for 11 of the cargo jets.

GECAS’s top-up agreement – its third, and one which includes nine additional options – takes its overall orders for the type to 60 with 14 options.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 44.article

It's interesting that Boeing is their partner on 737-800 freighter conversion yet clearly not on 777-300.


No 737MAX freighters on the horizon, so it makes sense to work with them on the 738. I think Boeing is more worried about damage to the possible 777X freighter market down the road.

Boeing didn't come up with an economical way to convert the 777-300ER, IAI Bedek did (of course, on paper).

The 737 has sold a long time. Boeing needed something to increase used demand so airlines could buy MAX's and GE/CFM likes support revenue.

Until recently (very recently), 777 resale values were too high to consider this conversion. GECAS had amazing foresight. I never would have predicted today's resale market, 77W availability, or drop in passenger revenue/numbers.

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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:47 pm

So...77W will have no chance of being scrapped after retirement (except when they have serious damage beyond repair?)
And would IAI/GECAS try to acquire all of the retired 77W (in the future)?
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:59 pm

Antaras wrote:
So...77W will have no chance of being scrapped after retirement (except when they have serious damage beyond repair?)


I expect some frames will be parted out as the spares have value on the maintenance market compared to OEM prices for new components.


Antaras wrote:
And would IAI/GECAS try to acquire all of the retired 77W (in the future)?


I expect GECAS will focus first on their own frames that are coming off lease and cannot be placed with a new operator. I don't see this model as being massively popular, so GECAS may be able to meet demand with their own frames.
 
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Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:23 am

As the 300ER SF (or hypothetical BCF) has more volume and payload than 747F, its uncomfortably close to 748F. For years, Boeing held out hoping an onslaught of replacement 747F orders would save the program and prevent further write downs that are now occurring. Any frame sold larger than 77F was sale opportunity removed from 748F...until now.

I suspect this is one of the two principle reasons why Boeing has been against 77W conversations. And also why they never made a -300F straight from the factory despite payload/range making sense. The 77F frankly has too much payload capacity for its volume. It was marketed as a long range freighter...but rarely used for that.

Second principle reason: Boeing’s (and others’) previous studies for 77W conversion likely assumed too-high residual values of feedstock. Conversion, at least historically, have required pretty high levels of depreciation (ie low residuals) to makes the finances work for the investment. The market was very optimistic on these values until recently.

Further, if Boeing were to use such analysis prediction the current situation regarding 77W residual values, (even pre-Covid they were crashing to scrap value), such analysis would *not* support the high (increased) 787 production rates and the investments in 77X. Likewise, due to having financed some of these sales themselves, they may have needed to take write downs on some loans on the books as well once it become clear market value was not holding up to book value.

Instead, it’s easier to believe the numbers which tell the more optimistic (wishful) story and ignore the mounting evidence to the contrary. This phenomenon repeats itself consistently in the corporate World.

For these two reasons, it’s easy to understand why Boeing has fought against a conversion program. Until now at least.

However, things have change a lot. Market conditions are clear. New leadership is in place. I wouldn’t be surprised if some level of cooperation resumed on the project. As IAI\GECAS have already invested heavily in getting to this point, Boeing likely would need to accept less fees or profit share compared to previous projects. As such, I wouldn’t be surprised if both parties continue on separate paths. 50/50. There are pluses for Boeing but they may be unwilling to establish a precedent of low share/fees for future conversations. Likewise, if IAI has confidently resolved the technical challenges, they won’t be willing to reduce their returns by sharing with Boeing heavily. Depends on project risk.

What is clear... if the performance figures are met, this will be the heavy freight standard bearer (747F replacements) moving forward. It’s ton/mile costs will only be bested by 77F in a small niche of missions (extremely dense freight, very rare) Its standard cost per dimensional unit untouched by 77F or 748F or any other freighter on the market.

The 77X doesn’t work well as a freighter in current form. It’s needs significant investment to best the 77W F

I can’t imagine a scenario where every major freight company doesn’t get on board within 5 years.
 
amdiesen
Posts: 131
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:27 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:28 am

Okcflyer wrote:
As the 300ER SF (or hypothetical BCF) has more volume and payload than 747F, its uncomfortably close to 748F.


Ok that's it. Does this make any sense to the AEs?

B748F -- 139T?
B744F -- 124T?
B772F -- 103T?

Where is the B773ERSF on max payload, max volume, MZFW, MLW? Is there anyway we can develop and post a semi-factual table as a consensus and basis for rational discussion?

The frame weight difference of the 777 derivatives (B773ER/B772F) is ~23,400kg before the conversion and the conversion will add additional OEW.
The engines, wingspan, wing area, fuel capacity are the same and MTOW(351.5 v 348) is similar; therefore the B773ERSF will have ~24T+ OEW w/~same structural physics and power plant as the B772F.
Yes/agreed... 25% more volume is appealing. Using the longer fuselage to more efficiently transport a more common density is something that we all agree upon.

How can the B773ERSF carry more mass/payload than the B772F? B744F?.... sigh

I'd like to respectfully call B/S.
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 676
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:03 am

amdiesen wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
As the 300ER SF (or hypothetical BCF) has more volume and payload than 747F, its uncomfortably close to 748F.


Ok that's it. Does this make any sense to the AEs?

B748F -- 139T?
B744F -- 124T?
B772F -- 103T?

Where is the B773ERSF on max payload, max volume, MZFW, MLW? Is there anyway we can develop and post a semi-factual table as a consensus and basis for rational discussion?

The frame weight difference of the 777 derivatives (B773ER/B772F) is ~23,400kg before the conversion and the conversion will add additional OEW.
The engines, wingspan, wing area, fuel capacity are the same and MTOW(351.5 v 348) is similar; therefore the B773ERSF will have ~24T+ OEW w/~same structural physics and power plant as the B772F.
Yes/agreed... 25% more volume is appealing. Using the longer fusalage to more efficiently transport a more common density is something that we all agree upon

How can the B773ERSF carry more mass/payload than the B772F? B744F?.... sigh

I'd like to respectfully call B/S.


Thanks for pointing this out. It was supposed to say useable payload.

IAI’s estimate is for 101.6T payload available. Slightly less than the 77F which very rarely gets close to its limit.

As I recall, Cargolux 744F’s are 113T. Most often these cube out before payload max. It takes rather dense cargo to max out. The 744F only has 2 more positions than a 77F ...

Useable payload. Average densities. Low cost hauler for the bulk/majority of shipments.

The 300ERSF is expected to have ton/mile ops cost
savings of 20% over 747F. It has 8 more positions than 747F.

It is more likely to either payload or MTOW limited, whereas other freighters tend to be volume limited, but this is pretty easy to manage with revenue management systems. The drop in operating costs savings are a step change. This is why I agree with GECAS for forecast of 150+ plus of these eventually (less than 1/6 of flying 77W fleet).
 
hz747300
Posts: 2417
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:57 am

Maybe Boeing can sell the license to the 748F to Antonov so they can keep a nose loading freighter flying around. It seems there would be a need for a nose loader. Maybe those clever cats at Antonov can build in a kneeling capability for their licensed 748F too.
Keep on truckin'...
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