mxaxai
Posts: 1202
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:27 pm

Dutchy wrote:
There aren't too many B747F that are using the front-loading system and then the price is de decisive factor, too costly. There are tens of B747-8F in the air to take care of this small demand for the next dozen of years.

Additionally, you can charter an An-124 for most outsized cargo. The Il-76 is getting a reengine. Militaries worldwide have dedicated freighters for heavy and/or bulky cargo. As an enthusiast, I'd miss it, but economically, it's not required.
 
User avatar
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1882
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:33 pm

Boy, how right was I.
Told ya.... 777-300ER freighter conversion it's not a matter of "if" but "when".

...and here it is.

Coming up next: 777-9 swing tail freighter. 747-8F is going bye-bye in 10 years tops.
Tarriffs are taxes. Taxation is theft. You are not entitled to anything.
If it's a Boeing, I'm not going.
 
migair54
Posts: 2425
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:24 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:59 pm

I would like to see the weights of this plane, the payload is less than the 77F but the volume is higher, i would like to know the Dry operating weight, MZFW, max landing weight. The B77F has a 9T higher Max Landing weight over the 77W, so it will be interesting to see if they certified the plane for that or not, my guess is not, but we will see.

S/N 32789 was A6-EBB, stored and no longer in service with Emirates.
 
User avatar
Spacepope
Posts: 4423
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 1999 11:10 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:18 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

I wonder if it was the cost of the conversion that deterred customers for the original -200 conversion. If you had the money, you could always get a brand new 777-200F, while if you didn't, an A330P2F was cheaper. Perhaps the 777-300ER converted freighter is just as expensive, but able to sell on the basis that it will soon be the only game in town for large freighters?


Rumors at the time for conversion including full strengthening of the floor was gonna run close to 100 million bucks, if I recall correctly. It was stupid expensive.


So that probably makes this aircraft something like 120-150 mio. a piece, all included? Expensive, but how much does a new 747-8F go for? 350 mio. or more?


It all really depends on both the cost of the donor airframe and if (and I strongly suspect they tried) IAI was able to make the conversion cost cheaper by at least 25%. For 100 million apiece on the 777WF, you could buy convert and operate 2 763P2Fs instead and still be ahead of the game.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18424
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:35 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
Boy, how right was I.
Told ya.... 777-300ER freighter conversion it's not a matter of "if" but "when".

...and here it is.

Coming up next: 777-9 swing tail freighter. 747-8F is going bye-bye in 10 years tops.

How do you do a pressurized swing tail?
The swing tails I know of have unpressurized cargo compartments.

The 777-300ERSF was pretty much a necessity. But I'll admit I predicted a 777-200ERSF which will not happen.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3255
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:53 pm

Spacepope wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Spacepope wrote:

Rumors at the time for conversion including full strengthening of the floor was gonna run close to 100 million bucks, if I recall correctly. It was stupid expensive.


So that probably makes this aircraft something like 120-150 mio. a piece, all included? Expensive, but how much does a new 747-8F go for? 350 mio. or more?


It all really depends on both the cost of the donor airframe and if (and I strongly suspect they tried) IAI was able to make the conversion cost cheaper by at least 25%. For 100 million apiece on the 777WF, you could buy convert and operate 2 763P2Fs instead and still be ahead of the game.


Good 767 feedstock is running out. By the time these initial 15 are done (and the economy picks up again after the next financial crisis), there will pretty much only be trashed or worn out 767s left.
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 569
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:57 pm

I think the critical piece of information being overlooked by many here is the focus on freight density. This is not a standard air freighter in the traditional sense. This converted model only makes sense for eCommerce and parcel package integrator (FX, UPS).

I think this is a minimum change, low cost derivative. No floor beam change. Very little stiffing for higher MLW.

Up until this point, freighters have had heavier landing weights, stiffened floor beams for denser pallets, common with non-parcel shipments.

Therefore, this does not and will not displace or replace the 748F or 77F, both of which carrier far more payload and/or dense payload (not packages).

There may be times the 77W-SF hits weight limits (MZFW or MLW, probably not MTOW) before it volumes out, but for this type of freight, is still more volume then a 77F could take, and likely with a lower acquisition cost to boot.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14154
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:07 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
I think the critical piece of information being overlooked by many here is the focus on freight density. This is not a standard air freighter in the traditional sense. This converted model only makes sense for eCommerce and parcel package integrator (FX, UPS).

I think this is a minimum change, low cost derivative. No floor beam change. Very little stiffing for higher MLW.

Up until this point, freighters have had heavier landing weights, stiffened floor beams for denser pallets, common with non-parcel shipments.

Therefore, this does not and will not displace or replace the 748F or 77F, both of which carrier far more payload and/or dense payload (not packages).


I dont agree, I would think this will be a floor replacement, Airbus is doing that on the A300/A320/A330.

Regardless of cargo density, and new converted freighter will need to meet current crash-worthiness and be a class E cargo compartment. It will also need a replacement floor for the cargo loading system and restraint system.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
worldranger
Posts: 236
Joined: Sun Jun 07, 2015 4:12 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:50 pm

Dufo wrote:
If anyone has OPT for both 773ER and 747 (-400 or -8), could you please do MTOW out of NBO at 20deg, 0 wind, 1013hpa, packs off, the rest optimum?


77W with pack off or APU to packs with FULL CG

319,806kg

With ALT CG

321695kg.

Anyone have the Jumbo numbers?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26522
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:15 pm

As others have noted, this conversion is being aimed at the Express Package market, not the General Cargo market. So at those lower cargo densities, the existing CFRP floor beams might very well be able to remain, perhaps with reinforcement to support the loads. Flight is estimating a $35 million conversion cost where I have heard the conversion cost of a 777P2F where the CFRP floor beams were removed and replaced with aluminum ones to support a 160kg per cubic meter density could be twice that amount.

Also as others have noted, the 747-8F plays in a different league so this is not a de facto fatal blow to the program, though I agree it does impact the program on some level, which may be why IAI is handing the STC and not Boeing.

Boeing comments about 777P2F modifications have implied a 777-300 family frame would offer around 750 cubic meters of usable volume compared to around 850 cubic meters for the 747-8. I am going to assume the 777-300 number is at the same 160kg per cubic meter as the 747-8, so a lower density could account for the IAI claim of 816 cubic meters.

The 747-8 can take one more 96x125"ULD pallet on the upper deck, but two less than the 777-300ER in the lower hold. So overall the difference is one under-hold pallet.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18424
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:51 am

Stitch wrote:
As others have noted, this conversion is being aimed at the Express Package market, not the General Cargo market. So at those lower cargo densities, the existing CFRP floor beams might very well be able to remain, perhaps with reinforcement to support the loads. Flight is estimating a $35 million conversion cost where I have heard the conversion cost of a 777P2F where the CFRP floor beams were removed and replaced with aluminum ones to support a 160kg per cubic meter density could be twice that amount.

Also as others have noted, the 747-8F plays in a different league so this is not a de facto fatal blow to the program, though I agree it does impact the program on some level, which may be why IAI is handing the STC and not Boeing.

Boeing comments about 777P2F modifications have implied a 777-300 family frame would offer around 750 cubic meters of usable volume compared to around 850 cubic meters for the 747-8. I am going to assume the 777-300 number is at the same 160kg per cubic meter as the 747-8, so a lower density could account for the IAI claim of 816 cubic meters.

The 747-8 can take one more 96x125"ULD pallet on the upper deck, but two less than the 777-300ER in the lower hold. So overall the difference is one under-hold pallet.

There are only two outstanding 748F orders. One undisclosed, I assume for a Chinese carrier. The other is UPS. In my opinion, this ends any chance of a UPS top off order.

So while someone else might order the 738F, I think half or more of the market just went away which makes production non-viable. Boeing seems to be throwing up obstacles to the conversion to protect markets including the 777F and 748F.

$35 million conversion is steep. I never believed the estimates that were significantly higher. Those were estimates that didn't look for lower cost ways to convert.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18424
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:05 am

Just a thought, cheapest 77W $55 million. 1st delivery 2004. If we assume 4 cycles per day and 12 hours per day, the fleet leader, at 15 years is at about 22,000 cycles or 66,000 flight hours.

Due to the expense of this conversion, I doubt any airframe over 25,000 cycles ,(or 35,000 remaining) or 80,000 FH or half remaining will be considered.

With 840 examples to chose from, I bet 200 to 300 are converted to SFs. Most not for years. Considering, due to a global downturn, high 777-300ER deliveries were 2007-2017 and the above cycle/hour limits that means peak conversion opportunities now through 2037. Yes, we can talk about this for a long time.

At 2037, IAI had better switch to converting 779s. ;)

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
md11sdf
Posts: 96
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2006 10:11 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:06 am

UPS should look at these to takeover certain International routes from the MD-11F.
As a Louisville based airplane junkie, I never get to see Triple Sevens...
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY: Where your camera looks just like a stinger missile to the Airport Police!!
 
Dufo
Posts: 813
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:41 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:18 am

worldranger wrote:
Dufo wrote:
If anyone has OPT for both 773ER and 747 (-400 or -8), could you please do MTOW out of NBO at 20deg, 0 wind, 1013hpa, packs off, the rest optimum?


77W with pack off or APU to packs with FULL CG

319,806kg

With ALT CG

321695kg.

Anyone have the Jumbo numbers?


I got it for 744PF with CF6.
385584kg. So 98% of structural MTOW 394625kg.
I seriously think I just creamed my pants without any influence from any outside variables.
 
worldranger
Posts: 236
Joined: Sun Jun 07, 2015 4:12 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:39 am

Dufo wrote:
worldranger wrote:
Dufo wrote:
If anyone has OPT for both 773ER and 747 (-400 or -8), could you please do MTOW out of NBO at 20deg, 0 wind, 1013hpa, packs off, the rest optimum?


77W with pack off or APU to packs with FULL CG

319,806kg

With ALT CG

321695kg.

Anyone have the Jumbo numbers?


I got it for 744PF with CF6.
385584kg. So 98% of structural MTOW 394625kg.


As a comparison the 777F is 322,150kg - ALT CG Packs off
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3283
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:58 am

md11sdf wrote:
UPS should look at these to takeover certain International routes from the MD-11F.
As a Louisville based airplane junkie, I never get to see Triple Sevens...

All of the MD-11 flying is shifting to SDF, I’d get used to them.

For sure an interesting and really kind of surprised it has taken so long for it to happen. I know for years we’ve been talking about the floor beams not being strong enough, but it has always baffled me that it is something that is so hard to overcome.

I honestly don’t see 5X grabbing them, at least initially. It’s a good MD-11 replacement, but they still have a few years left before the replacement cycle starts.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18424
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:55 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
md11sdf wrote:
UPS should look at these to takeover certain International routes from the MD-11F.
As a Louisville based airplane junkie, I never get to see Triple Sevens...

All of the MD-11 flying is shifting to SDF, I’d get used to them.

For sure an interesting and really kind of surprised it has taken so long for it to happen. I know for years we’ve been talking about the floor beams not being strong enough, but it has always baffled me that it is something that is so hard to overcome.

I honestly don’t see 5X grabbing them, at least initially. It’s a good MD-11 replacement, but they still have a few years left before the replacement cycle starts.

I see 5X buying later to replace MD-11s and growth. In a year or two the stock of 77Ws will be more economical. In particular after 779s start to replace 77Ws.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21937
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:08 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
I know for years we’ve been talking about the floor beams not being strong enough, but it has always baffled me that it is something that is so hard to overcome.

Consider replacing the floor beams in a building without allowing the walls to buckle, then consider aviation is far more regulated than the building trades, and there's vital systems (control cables, etc) passing through those beams that will either need to be preserved (for budgetary or "grandfathering" reasons) or replaced (expensive!), and interior space is more constricted than the average building.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26522
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
There are only two outstanding 748F orders. One undisclosed, I assume for a Chinese carrier. The other is UPS. In my opinion, this ends any chance of a UPS top off order. So while someone else might order the 748F, I think half or more of the market just went away which makes production non-viable. Boeing seems to be throwing up obstacles to the conversion to protect markets including the 777F and 748F.


I agree the 747-8 freighter's days are numbered. I agree with you that UPS have all they need/want, but Boeing could still scrounge up a few more orders from existing 747-8F customers for while air cargo traffic is flat-to-mildly declining, the players with the most modern fleets appear to be the ones securing new business at the expense of those with older, less efficient fleets. But I expect the line will be fully closed down no later than the end of the 2020s.


md11sdf wrote:
UPS should look at these to takeover certain International routes from the MD-11F.


The 777-300ER wingspan is a fair bit larger than the MD-11F so a significant fleet conversion would require FedEx and/or UPS to revamp their infrastructure to accommodate them.
 
flyingisthebest
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 12:10 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:10 pm

I would see this 77W F program be ideal for Amazon given how they are more focused on ecommerce and how much air is inside these packages.

UPS and FedEx might have problems as their infrastructure is geared towards the 767/MD-11 wing size where the 77W is massive.

DHL might be another possibility but they do a lot of general freight and it can get quite heavy....

The important question is there enough demand for this type of freighter given there are so many 77W’s out there.... Like it or not Amazon is not going to take over the world and will need 200 777-300ERF’s...
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26522
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:22 pm

flyingisthebest wrote:
I would see this 77W F program be ideal for Amazon given how they are more focused on ecommerce and how much air is inside these packages.


Amazon Air so far has been focusing on the 767 in both -200 and -300 form, which makes sense as they only have one hub (CVG) so they do not have any "trunk" or "hub-to-hub" flights that could maximize the raw volume of the 777-300ERSF. Amazon Air also does not own their fleet, instead leasing space from other operators. So it's those operators who would be the ones who would be purchasing these frames.

All that being said, I am sure IAI and GECAS are looking at them. :biggrin:
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3283
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
md11sdf wrote:
UPS should look at these to takeover certain International routes from the MD-11F.
As a Louisville based airplane junkie, I never get to see Triple Sevens...

All of the MD-11 flying is shifting to SDF, I’d get used to them.

For sure an interesting and really kind of surprised it has taken so long for it to happen. I know for years we’ve been talking about the floor beams not being strong enough, but it has always baffled me that it is something that is so hard to overcome.

I honestly don’t see 5X grabbing them, at least initially. It’s a good MD-11 replacement, but they still have a few years left before the replacement cycle starts.

I see 5X buying later to replace MD-11s and growth. In a year or two the stock of 77Ws will be more economical. In particular after 779s start to replace 77Ws.

Lightsaber

The economics work, but the wingspan is a killer at the gateways.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18424
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:25 pm

Stitch wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
There are only two outstanding 748F orders. One undisclosed, I assume for a Chinese carrier. The other is UPS. In my opinion, this ends any chance of a UPS top off order. So while someone else might order the 748F, I think half or more of the market just went away which makes production non-viable. Boeing seems to be throwing up obstacles to the conversion to protect markets including the 777F and 748F.


I agree the 747-8 freighter's days are numbered. I agree with you that UPS have all they need/want, but Boeing could still scrounge up a few more orders from existing 747-8F customers for while air cargo traffic is flat-to-mildly declining, the players with the most modern fleets appear to be the ones securing new business at the expense of those with older, less efficient fleets. But I expect the line will be fully closed down no later than the end of the 2020s.


md11sdf wrote:
UPS should look at these to takeover certain International routes from the MD-11F.


The 777-300ER wingspan is a fair bit larger than the MD-11F so a significant fleet conversion would require FedEx and/or UPS to revamp their infrastructure to accommodate them.

We agree in principle that other airlines will buy 748F. The question becomes how many and when? If earlier, than I am Mr. Doom and Gloom. But if Boeing isn't able to secure near term orders, than the 747 goes out of production and that is that.

I personally believe this conversion dramatically helps keep 77Ws in use and has a clear and significant market of 200 to 300 over the next 17 years

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
CX747
Posts: 6107
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:26 am

lightsaber wrote:
Stitch wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
There are only two outstanding 748F orders. One undisclosed, I assume for a Chinese carrier. The other is UPS. In my opinion, this ends any chance of a UPS top off order. So while someone else might order the 748F, I think half or more of the market just went away which makes production non-viable. Boeing seems to be throwing up obstacles to the conversion to protect markets including the 777F and 748F.


I agree the 747-8 freighter's days are numbered. I agree with you that UPS have all they need/want, but Boeing could still scrounge up a few more orders from existing 747-8F customers for while air cargo traffic is flat-to-mildly declining, the players with the most modern fleets appear to be the ones securing new business at the expense of those with older, less efficient fleets. But I expect the line will be fully closed down no later than the end of the 2020s.


md11sdf wrote:
UPS should look at these to takeover certain International routes from the MD-11F.


The 777-300ER wingspan is a fair bit larger than the MD-11F so a significant fleet conversion would require FedEx and/or UPS to revamp their infrastructure to accommodate them.

We agree in principle that other airlines will buy 748F. The question becomes how many and when? If earlier, than I am Mr. Doom and Gloom. But if Boeing isn't able to secure near term orders, than the 747 goes out of production and that is that.

I personally believe this conversion dramatically helps keep 77Ws in use and has a clear and significant market of 200 to 300 over the next 17 years

Lightsaber


The new 77W program will definitely eat some potential 747-8F orders. The two planes though are really made for different uses. UPS pilots were talking very strongly about how the company was building the future around the -8F and believed additional orders were inbound. An already known platform, performance and pilot training pipe line with simulators is established. Does the 77W P2F offer enough to bring in another fleet type? Pretty simplified if you think A300, 757/767 and 747. If you mix/match MD-11/747-400F fleet replacement with 747/767F orders, you maintain that simplicity.

Let's see what the future holds but I've been hearing how the 747 is dead for going on almost half a decade now.

Now that we discussed the Queen, it is pretty exciting to see the 77W P2F program finally take off. Orders and how the potential fleet develops will be fun to watch.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
User avatar
747classic
Posts: 2727
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 9:13 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:06 am

Some estimated max structural operating weights for this 777-300ERSF variant.

Looking at the 777-200LR, 777-300ER and 777F ACAPS at page 14/160 : https://www.boeing.com/resources/boeing ... 2lr3er.pdf

The MTOW will remain the same at 775.000 lbs (777-300ER)

777F Operational empty weight is 318,300 lbs, compared to the operational empty weight of the 777-200LR of 320.000lbs..
Despite the omission of seats, galleys, all but two main entry doors and most window frames, both factory delivered aircraft have almost the same empty weight, caused by the heavy floor beams and cargo loading system.

The same is valid for the new 777-300ERSF, but the main entry door frames plus doors are retained and also the passenger window frames are retained (plugged)
777-300ER emtpy weight is 370.000 lbs.
Estimated 777-300ERSF empty weight will be around 365.000 lbs (low estimate)

The max payload has been set at 220.000 lbs for the 777-300ERSF, see : http://bigtwinfreighter.com/facts-figures/

Conseq. the MZFW will have to be increased from 524.00 lbs (777-300ER) to 365.000 + 220.000 = 585.000 lbs (777-300ERSF)
Also the MLW will have to be increased from 554.000 lbs (777-300ER) to approx. 615,000 lbs (777-300ERSF)

This a very large increase in MZFW and MLW complicating further support of the OEM (Boeing) for possible structural defect/repairs.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
travelhound
Posts: 1901
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:25 am

lightsaber wrote:
Stitch wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
There are only two outstanding 748F orders. One undisclosed, I assume for a Chinese carrier. The other is UPS. In my opinion, this ends any chance of a UPS top off order. So while someone else might order the 748F, I think half or more of the market just went away which makes production non-viable. Boeing seems to be throwing up obstacles to the conversion to protect markets including the 777F and 748F.


I agree the 747-8 freighter's days are numbered. I agree with you that UPS have all they need/want, but Boeing could still scrounge up a few more orders from existing 747-8F customers for while air cargo traffic is flat-to-mildly declining, the players with the most modern fleets appear to be the ones securing new business at the expense of those with older, less efficient fleets. But I expect the line will be fully closed down no later than the end of the 2020s.


md11sdf wrote:
UPS should look at these to takeover certain International routes from the MD-11F.


The 777-300ER wingspan is a fair bit larger than the MD-11F so a significant fleet conversion would require FedEx and/or UPS to revamp their infrastructure to accommodate them.

We agree in principle that other airlines will buy 748F. The question becomes how many and when? If earlier, than I am Mr. Doom and Gloom. But if Boeing isn't able to secure near term orders, than the 747 goes out of production and that is that.

I personally believe this conversion dramatically helps keep 77Ws in use and has a clear and significant market of 200 to 300 over the next 17 years

Lightsaber


Where we can argue there will be 200-300 orders for the aircraft, I think these orders will come at the back end of the 2020's or early 2030's.

Availability of feed stock, price of feedstock, near term global economics are all factors that will dictate the near term success of the program.

If we refer to the GECAS press release, the economics of the program is based upon on using 16 year old aircraft, with the caveat operators who use the aircraft on longer routes (higher utilisation rates) could use 12 year old aircraft as a economically viable alternative.

If we take Emirates out of the equation, there will probably be no more than 2-3 feedstock aircraft coming into the market over the near term.

As such, the 77F and 748F will probably have a viable market up to 2025.

Another consideration revolves around the secondary market for the 777-300ER. We don't have much data to date, other than aircraft coming off lease have quickly found new operators. As such, the market for secondary leases may remain strong over the shorter term.

As such, GECAS could be using this program to help secure long-term secondary leases on their aircraft; help regulate the supply of aircraft in the passenger market (to maintain rates); fulfill the requirements for freighter aircraft from their existing customer base; or more realistically a combination of the above.

Where GECAS have the scale to invest in such a program, other operators of the type may not have the same luxury. For them, parting out of aircraft and the secondary passenger market may be the more viable option.

I see this aircraft coming into its own element post 2027.
 
CX747
Posts: 6107
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:49 pm

travelhound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Stitch wrote:

I agree the 747-8 freighter's days are numbered. I agree with you that UPS have all they need/want, but Boeing could still scrounge up a few more orders from existing 747-8F customers for while air cargo traffic is flat-to-mildly declining, the players with the most modern fleets appear to be the ones securing new business at the expense of those with older, less efficient fleets. But I expect the line will be fully closed down no later than the end of the 2020s.




The 777-300ER wingspan is a fair bit larger than the MD-11F so a significant fleet conversion would require FedEx and/or UPS to revamp their infrastructure to accommodate them.

We agree in principle that other airlines will buy 748F. The question becomes how many and when? If earlier, than I am Mr. Doom and Gloom. But if Boeing isn't able to secure near term orders, than the 747 goes out of production and that is that.

I personally believe this conversion dramatically helps keep 77Ws in use and has a clear and significant market of 200 to 300 over the next 17 years

Lightsaber


Where we can argue there will be 200-300 orders for the aircraft, I think these orders will come at the back end of the 2020's or early 2030's.

Availability of feed stock, price of feedstock, near term global economics are all factors that will dictate the near term success of the program.

If we refer to the GECAS press release, the economics of the program is based upon on using 16 year old aircraft, with the caveat operators who use the aircraft on longer routes (higher utilisation rates) could use 12 year old aircraft as a economically viable alternative.

If we take Emirates out of the equation, there will probably be no more than 2-3 feedstock aircraft coming into the market over the near term.

As such, the 77F and 748F will probably have a viable market up to 2025.

Another consideration revolves around the secondary market for the 777-300ER. We don't have much data to date, other than aircraft coming off lease have quickly found new operators. As such, the market for secondary leases may remain strong over the shorter term.

As such, GECAS could be using this program to help secure long-term secondary leases on their aircraft; help regulate the supply of aircraft in the passenger market (to maintain rates); fulfill the requirements for freighter aircraft from their existing customer base; or more realistically a combination of the above.

Where GECAS have the scale to invest in such a program, other operators of the type may not have the same luxury. For them, parting out of aircraft and the secondary passenger market may be the more viable option.

I see this aircraft coming into its own element post 2027.


Very well said sir, very well said.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
ltbewr
Posts: 14429
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:28 pm

747-8F's will likely be operated into the 2050's or 2060's as they will have the need for certain cargo. I doubt there will be few if any more orders. Likely the last 747's will be for AF1's.
These 777 conversions will likely be much cheaper to operate as 2 engines, particular as to fuel, the most critical cost component, yet carry volumes/weight close to 747's for some key users, even beyond FX & UPS. That a lot of them with limited later pax airline use will likely mean moderate initial purchase costs and for GECAS, likely good financial sense. Perhaps European (like DHL), China or other Asian country based airlines will be interested in them for growing e-commerce and high value/moderate density operations to Europe and Americas. I am quite sure GECAS and others have done the number crunching to consider this.
 
musman9853
Posts: 882
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:46 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
Boy, how right was I.
Told ya.... 777-300ER freighter conversion it's not a matter of "if" but "when".

...and here it is.

Coming up next: 777-9 swing tail freighter. 747-8F is going bye-bye in 10 years tops.


10 years is probably overoptimistic tbh. probably closer to 5, and I wouldnt be surprised if the queen only gets a couple last call orders.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
musman9853
Posts: 882
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:51 pm

Stitch wrote:
flyingisthebest wrote:
I would see this 77W F program be ideal for Amazon given how they are more focused on ecommerce and how much air is inside these packages.


Amazon Air so far has been focusing on the 767 in both -200 and -300 form, which makes sense as they only have one hub (CVG) so they do not have any "trunk" or "hub-to-hub" flights that could maximize the raw volume of the 777-300ERSF. Amazon Air also does not own their fleet, instead leasing space from other operators. So it's those operators who would be the ones who would be purchasing these frames.

All that being said, I am sure IAI and GECAS are looking at them. :biggrin:


amazon does have the resources to buy their own fleet though. they've been rumored to buy their own 767s for a while now, and they have expansion space at cvg
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21937
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:57 pm

ltbewr wrote:
747-8F's will likely be operated into the 2050's or 2060's as they will have the need for certain cargo. I doubt there will be few if any more orders. Likely the last 747's will be for AF1's.

DoD already owns two 748s for future AF1 use, ironically the two that were to go to a Russian airline who defaulted.

I doubt they will buy any end-of-the-line 748s to increase the fleet size.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
mopacair
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:13 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:12 pm

Do you think Boeing knew this was coming and that's what motivated them to reveal the 767-FX study? As some others have noted, this IAI conversion could potentially replace the DC10/MD11s still in use, and a 767-400 based freighter would also be a potential replacement.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21937
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:25 pm

mopacair wrote:
Do you think Boeing knew this was coming and that's what motivated them to reveal the 767-FX study? As some others have noted, this IAI conversion could potentially replace the DC10/MD11s still in use, and a 767-400 based freighter would also be a potential replacement.

As certificate holder for the 777, I'd think that Boeing surely would have seen a lot of requests for data from IAI and realized what they were contemplating, and thus we see things like the 764F proposal and the warning that Boeing might not be able to sign off on structural repairs of modified aircraft i.e. IAI's 773F.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18424
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:55 pm

travelhound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Stitch wrote:

I agree the 747-8 freighter's days are numbered. I agree with you that UPS have all they need/want, but Boeing could still scrounge up a few more orders from existing 747-8F customers for while air cargo traffic is flat-to-mildly declining, the players with the most modern fleets appear to be the ones securing new business at the expense of those with older, less efficient fleets. But I expect the line will be fully closed down no later than the end of the 2020s.




The 777-300ER wingspan is a fair bit larger than the MD-11F so a significant fleet conversion would require FedEx and/or UPS to revamp their infrastructure to accommodate them.

We agree in principle that other airlines will buy 748F. The question becomes how many and when? If earlier, than I am Mr. Doom and Gloom. But if Boeing isn't able to secure near term orders, than the 747 goes out of production and that is that.

I personally believe this conversion dramatically helps keep 77Ws in use and has a clear and significant market of 200 to 300 over the next 17 years

Lightsaber


Where we can argue there will be 200-300 orders for the aircraft, I think these orders will come at the back end of the 2020's or early 2030's.

Availability of feed stock, price of feedstock, near term global economics are all factors that will dictate the near term success of the program.

If we refer to the GECAS press release, the economics of the program is based upon on using 16 year old aircraft, with the caveat operators who use the aircraft on longer routes (higher utilisation rates) could use 12 year old aircraft as a economically viable alternative.

If we take Emirates out of the equation, there will probably be no more than 2-3 feedstock aircraft coming into the market over the near term.

As such, the 77F and 748F will probably have a viable market up to 2025.

Another consideration revolves around the secondary market for the 777-300ER. We don't have much data to date, other than aircraft coming off lease have quickly found new operators. As such, the market for secondary leases may remain strong over the shorter term.

As such, GECAS could be using this program to help secure long-term secondary leases on their aircraft; help regulate the supply of aircraft in the passenger market (to maintain rates); fulfill the requirements for freighter aircraft from their existing customer base; or more realistically a combination of the above.

Where GECAS have the scale to invest in such a program, other operators of the type may not have the same luxury. For them, parting out of aircraft and the secondary passenger market may be the more viable option.

I see this aircraft coming into its own element post 2027.

From the OP link, EIS of this 777-300ERSF in 2022.

My estimates of 77W resale value is much lower than others. I see a widebody surplus happening and an A330NEO/A350/779/787 price war brewing. This will drive down the resale of used aircraft.

Parting out is worth, at most $30 million per 77W, probably down closer to $25 million. Current minimum value is $55. If one could buy a 77W for $25 million and put a mere $40 million into it for a 777-300-ERSF, of course these would fly off the shelf.

I wouldn't ignore Emirates, for EK, CX, or SQ. These airlines with a business model of rapid aircraft replacement will represent a disproportionate sum of the aircraft to be converted.

I believe the widebody market is in oversupply. This means less desirable frames will have to be discounted or will be unable to find a home. I do not expect, in 4 years, there to be a plenty of frames.

Remember how the A330 conversion was held until aircraft resale values plummeted.m? First on the A332, than A333:

viewtopic.php?p=8839521

Once 779 deliveries are in full swing, probably early 2022, we'll see those 77Ws returned to leasors in volume. You are correct in that few have been available so far. GECAS is willing to invest and provide 15 frames. So the program is launched, I think they have read the tea leaves and see the future 77W glut. Since this happens at every generation change (A35K and 779, as well as fragmentation by 787 and A359). The market pressure coming is obvious. Airframes out of production are notorious for losing resale value. This is why freight conversions exist.

I see a healthy pax 77W secondary market. I just do not see the values being high enough to stop half of the 2023+ offered 77Ws grom being converted. We already now low value is $55 million USD.

First delivery was 2004. That means the first few years of production will have too many hours or cycles to justify this expensive conversion. This conversion is just in time for 2007-2009 deliveries.

I see conversions far exceeding 200. But that is based on my opinion of e-commerce growth.

Who predicted the current 767SF/BCF mania?
With
168 787s per year
100+ A350s
Plus A330NEOs
Plus 779s...

The resale value of the 77Ws will drop. That is an easy prediction. The lack of A35K and 777x sales as well as the impending end of A380 production indicate the era of VLAs such as the 77W is at an end in the PAX market. I write with sadness as I'm a huge 779 fan. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21937
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:24 pm

A bit of push back from me, I'm afraid.

lightsaber wrote:
I see conversions far exceeding 200. But that is based on my opinion of e-commerce growth.

Could be, but trucking is still a factor too.

Just saw on a thread here that AMZN is building two distribution points pretty close to me (Andover, MA and Hooksett, NH).

It seems the idea going forward is to build more facilities closer to the customers so they can offer same-day distribution and back fill via truck rolls.

Who predicted the current 767SF/BCF mania?

AMZN's fondness of 767s is largely coming at the expense of FX who is parking planes faster than anticipated.

I realize 77W will be a great feed stock in the future, but it still represents a much bigger plane with much bigger trip costs and much bigger apron footprint.

It's going to be interesting to see how things play out between 773F, 77F, 748F, 764F, 763F, A332F and shipping/trucking as the 767 feed stock dwindles.

I'm thinking that 764F has as good a chance as catching on as does 773F conversions over the next 5-10 years, especially if Boeing "has its foot on the neck" of the 773W effort.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Ronaldo747
Posts: 355
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 4:58 pm

Re: GECAS and IAI to build 777-300ER Cargo Conversion

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:46 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Ronaldo747 wrote:
zeke wrote:
That spells the death on the 747-8F


Disagree.

If you read the Flightglobal article closely this aircraft is not suitable for the traditional general cargo operators.

But it will be a nice aircraft, I would expect Amazon as main customer as well. I also expect that Fedex and UPS will replace their MD11 fleets with them, but maybe not 1:1.

Please look at 748F backlog. For UPS and FedEx, their cargo density is low enough they will probably order no more 747s.

As 16 of the 20 unfilled 748F positions are for UPS, the viability of production goes away. Boeing has only about 20 months before they must start planning the shutdown of the 747 line. Unless there is a final order, this is it for the Queen.

Now, as nose door freighters disappear, the premium for that cargo will rise. But we are a long way from that scenario.

Lightsaber


I'm sorry Lightsaber there might be a misunderstanding here. In case of Amazon, UPS and FedEx I indeed refer to them to buy the 773ERSF and being the main customers.

There will be still other customers for the 748F though.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18424
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: GECAS and IAI to build 777-300ER Cargo Conversion

Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:45 pm

Ronaldo747 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Ronaldo747 wrote:

Disagree.

If you read the Flightglobal article closely this aircraft is not suitable for the traditional general cargo operators.

But it will be a nice aircraft, I would expect Amazon as main customer as well. I also expect that Fedex and UPS will replace their MD11 fleets with them, but maybe not 1:1.

Please look at 748F backlog. For UPS and FedEx, their cargo density is low enough they will probably order no more 747s.

As 16 of the 20 unfilled 748F positions are for UPS, the viability of production goes away. Boeing has only about 20 months before they must start planning the shutdown of the 747 line. Unless there is a final order, this is it for the Queen.

Now, as nose door freighters disappear, the premium for that cargo will rise. But we are a long way from that scenario.

Lightsaber


I'm sorry Lightsaber there might be a misunderstanding here. In case of Amazon, UPS and FedEx I indeed refer to them to buy the 773ERSF and being the main customers.

There will be still other customers for the 748F though.

We are in agreement. I think there could be other buyers. However:
1. The current 748F is in life support, building a mere 6 per year.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... /79132228/

A little history, from 2 per month, to 1.3 (16 per year) to the above every other month. As headcount doesn't really drop for lower production, I speculate this is minimum profitable production.
http://old.seattletimes.com/html/busine ... onxml.html

Automation forces economy of scale. I am of the opinion that a hundred per year is the minimum as It costs so much to automate.
2. Production is too low for PiPs. Oh, there might be a engine PiP hand me down from the 787 engines, but no weight loss or other improvement.
3. The only reason the 748F is still in production bus UPS. 16 of 20 in the backlog are one airline, UPS.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747-8

EK to A380 us as UPS to 747F. As these 777-300ERSFs would be available in 2022 and just judging on the backlog that UPS has 748F production maxed out 2020-2022... It is as if timed just so.

Oh, 777F production increasing:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 7f7aff606f

Between keeping the 777 at decent economy of scales and great economies of scale or letting go of a unique but 50+ year old product line, I know the strategic decision I would make.

I assume Boeing is not supporting this modification to save the 748F.

There is 10 or fewer months for a new order. We will know within a year the fate of the Queen.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26522
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: GECAS and IAI to build 777-300ER Cargo Conversion

Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:18 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I assume Boeing is not supporting this modification to save the 748F.


They also want to protect the 777F in the near-term as it is what will be supporting the 777 FAL until the 777X ramps up (which will now be a year or so later than initial plan) as well as protecting the 777-8F when that model eventually launches.
 
BravoOne
Posts: 3683
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:46 pm

lightsaber wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:
Boy, how right was I.
Told ya.... 777-300ER freighter conversion it's not a matter of "if" but "when".

...and here it is.

Coming up next: 777-9 swing tail freighter. 747-8F is going bye-bye in 10 years tops.

How do you do a pressurized swing tail?
The swing tails I know of have unpressurized cargo compartments.

The 777-300ERSF was pretty much a necessity. But I'll admit I predicted a 777-200ERSF which will not happen.

Lightsaber



The CL44 was a swing tail. There was a inflatable seal at the break that inflated to maintain the pressure differential.
 
travelhound
Posts: 1901
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:57 pm

Point of interest,

(From my orders spreadsheet) forty six airlines / lessors ordered the 777-300ER directly from Boeing. Of these forty six only sixteen of them ordered the A350. Of the sixteen airlines only ten of them have substantial 777-300ER fleets.

Of the ten, only five will have the required feed stock in the right age group to supply the market......and this will be dependent upon these airlines deciding to replace the aircraft.

For me, this suggests the majority of 777-300ER operators have not placed orders to replace these aircraft. For example, Singapore Airlines are swapping out their A330-300 with the A350's. This is despite the fact there are quite a few 777-300ER's that are older than the A330's being swapped out.

Another contributor could be the original purchase price of the 777-300ER. For many airlines, they have made a substantial investment in the type. As such, a depressed resale market could result in airlines deciding to keep their fleets so that they don't incur substantial book losses.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14154
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: GECAS and IAI to build 777-300ER Cargo Conversion

Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I assume Boeing is not supporting this modification to save the 748F.

Indirectly they do. Several years ago Boeing got significantly annoyed with this company with their 737 and 767 conversions and tankers they introduced data fees to access Boeing material.

Boeing will not directly support the STC they will gladly take the money from the operators who will operate the aircraft and also fees to access the data during conversion.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1659
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:52 pm

Even though Boeing does have the BCF program for P2F conversions of 737 747 and 767's, there have been a lot of P2F conversions outside of the BCF. IAI does do BCF's so works with Boeing regularly. In particular with GECAS involved, Boeing is not adverse to this conversion as it improves 777 values and lots of service business.

Taking B's 2017 Freighter assessment converted to average annual the market will take 25 large new freighters (747, 777), 25 Conversions (747 767 777), 25 767 Freighters, and 50 NB conversions a year. So 10 to 15 777 conversions a year, a nice stream but not crazy. Five years from now there will be plenty of feedstock, just as the 767 feedstock is drying up.

Are there any 744 P2F's still happening? This is a good marker on the remaining life of the 748F production. My guess is that the NMA production will replace where the 747's are now. So maybe 35 more from now? Who would place orders for 2 dozen, it might just be a dozen stragglers.


https://www.boeing.com/commercial/freig ... o-forecast
 
User avatar
Spacepope
Posts: 4423
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 1999 11:10 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:10 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Even though Boeing does have the BCF program for P2F conversions of 737 747 and 767's, there have been a lot of P2F conversions outside of the BCF. IAI does do BCF's so works with Boeing regularly. In particular with GECAS involved, Boeing is not adverse to this conversion as it improves 777 values and lots of service business.

Taking B's 2017 Freighter assessment converted to average annual the market will take 25 large new freighters (747, 777), 25 Conversions (747 767 777), 25 767 Freighters, and 50 NB conversions a year. So 10 to 15 777 conversions a year, a nice stream but not crazy. Five years from now there will be plenty of feedstock, just as the 767 feedstock is drying up.

Are there any 744 P2F's still happening? This is a good marker on the remaining life of the 748F production. My guess is that the NMA production will replace where the 747's are now. So maybe 35 more from now? Who would place orders for 2 dozen, it might just be a dozen stragglers.


https://www.boeing.com/commercial/freig ... o-forecast

IAI has their own conversions (BDSF, not BCF) so the freighters are certified under a different STC . They are different programs.

The last 2 P2F conversions for 744s were Asians conversions from combo to full freighter. It’s been a while since a SCD has been put on a full pax bird.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18424
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: GECAS and IAI to build 777-300ER Cargo Conversion

Sun Oct 20, 2019 1:24 am

Stitch wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I assume Boeing is not supporting this modification to save the 748F.


They also want to protect the 777F in the near-term as it is what will be supporting the 777 FAL until the 777X ramps up (which will now be a year or so later than initial plan) as well as protecting the 777-8F when that model eventually launches.

You make a good point. I hear noise of 777F orders (current model) to support 60/year production:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 81fbf1606f

I doubt 777Fs sell for anything close to a 779, but that cannot be cheap to swing 2020 production. Casings, shafts, and rotors will be on rush jobs.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
747classic
Posts: 2727
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 9:13 am

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:13 am

IAI has always developed their own reverse engineered freighter conversions, according their own STC.
Together with all required structural modification the operating weights (MZFW,MLW) were increased to the already certified increased operating weights of the relevant Boeing Converted Freighters (BCF or older -SF) variants.

However on the 777-300ERSF the operating weights (MZFW and MLW) have to be increased further than available on any 777 variant.( 777-300BCF is not available yet.)
This will require extra strengtening of the longer ( larger moment) 777-300ER fuselage, decreasing the fatigue strength even more than on the 777F, derived from the 777-200LR.
Especially the not modified parts of the aircraft (landing gear, brakes, center wingbox, etc) will be subject of larger loads and the OEM and the FAA/EASA will have to agree with that.
I forsee a very lengthy supplemental certification process (3 years ?), with the OEM not very happy and not cooperative to deliver aircraft data.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
CX747
Posts: 6107
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: GECAS and IAI to build 777-300ER Cargo Conversion

Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Ronaldo747 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Please look at 748F backlog. For UPS and FedEx, their cargo density is low enough they will probably order no more 747s.

As 16 of the 20 unfilled 748F positions are for UPS, the viability of production goes away. Boeing has only about 20 months before they must start planning the shutdown of the 747 line. Unless there is a final order, this is it for the Queen.

Now, as nose door freighters disappear, the premium for that cargo will rise. But we are a long way from that scenario.

Lightsaber


I'm sorry Lightsaber there might be a misunderstanding here. In case of Amazon, UPS and FedEx I indeed refer to them to buy the 773ERSF and being the main customers.

There will be still other customers for the 748F though.

We are in agreement. I think there could be other buyers. However:
1. The current 748F is in life support, building a mere 6 per year.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... /79132228/

A little history, from 2 per month, to 1.3 (16 per year) to the above every other month. As headcount doesn't really drop for lower production, I speculate this is minimum profitable production.
http://old.seattletimes.com/html/busine ... onxml.html

Automation forces economy of scale. I am of the opinion that a hundred per year is the minimum as It costs so much to automate.
2. Production is too low for PiPs. Oh, there might be a engine PiP hand me down from the 787 engines, but no weight loss or other improvement.
3. The only reason the 748F is still in production bus UPS. 16 of 20 in the backlog are one airline, UPS.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747-8

EK to A380 us as UPS to 747F. As these 777-300ERSFs would be available in 2022 and just judging on the backlog that UPS has 748F production maxed out 2020-2022... It is as if timed just so.

Oh, 777F production increasing:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 7f7aff606f

Between keeping the 777 at decent economy of scales and great economies of scale or letting go of a unique but 50+ year old product line, I know the strategic decision I would make.

I assume Boeing is not supporting this modification to save the 748F.

There is 10 or fewer months for a new order. We will know within a year the fate of the Queen.

Lightsaber


I'm looking at the end of this year to see new 747 orders. It only takes 6 to gain an additional year of production. Time will tell on what UPS, Atlas, Cargolux and Volga decide to do. I too assume the proposed NMA will be produced on the 747 line....but that isn't for several years. The desire to keep that space productive until then could make Boeing offer some good deals. Still a ton of 747-400Fs out there for Atlas/Cargolux/Volga. They can only go for so long. Heavy maintenance on -400Fs may get you another 7-10 years of the capabilities. If you pony up for the -8F, your "what replaces this?!?!?!" dilemma goes away for 30+ years.

There was an nice article in the past year where top mngt of Atlas, Cargolux and Volga openly discussed the 747 and what the future held. They were all looking at a nose loading, new design should/when 747 production ends. How much emphasis all three company exec's put on nose loading was eye opening.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
snasteve
Posts: 81
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 1:58 am

Re: GECAS and IAI to build 777-300ER Cargo Conversion

Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:51 pm

zeke wrote:
That spells the death on the 747-8F

I see there is an existing thread for this viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1433187


I thought the 747 nose with the -8 extra length was the only thing able to move the long and skinny items ASAP for the oil industry. Without going to the Antonov?
 
User avatar
Spacepope
Posts: 4423
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 1999 11:10 am

Re: GECAS and IAI to build 777-300ER Cargo Conversion

Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:31 pm

snasteve wrote:
zeke wrote:
That spells the death on the 747-8F

I see there is an existing thread for this viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1433187


I thought the 747 nose with the -8 extra length was the only thing able to move the long and skinny items ASAP for the oil industry. Without going to the Antonov?


And it's going to be more in demand as Volga Dnepr and its AN-124 fleet is on the brink of collapse, not having paid its employees since August. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1184199480230453248

As for Boeing throwing wrenches into the BDSF program: One thing to remember is theat this launch customer is GECAS, so not a small fish. Boeing has an interest in keeping its leasing customers happy, and GECAS's parent company is pretty important for the 737, 747, 767F, 777 and 787 lines...
The last of the famous international playboys
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26522
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: GECAS and IAI to build 777-300ER Cargo Conversion

Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:49 pm

Spacepope wrote:
As for Boeing throwing wrenches into the BDSF program: One thing to remember is theat this launch customer is GECAS, so not a small fish. Boeing has an interest in keeping its leasing customers happy, and GECAS's parent company is pretty important for the 737, 747, 767F, 777 and 787 lines...


Of course, the 737, 747, 767F, 777 and 787 lines are very important to GECAS' parent company. :angel:

One can argue that GECAS is actually hurting their parent company because the 777-300ER could be positioned against the 777F so that impacts new-build GE90 engines sales. And then there is how it could take future orders away from the 777-8F, which impacts new-build GE9X sales.




IAI / Bedek has been talking 777-200 family P2F conversions for a decade. They last planned to have the first frames into conversion by the end of 2017, but by mid-2017 they were still seeking board approval to go forward with the STC (which they felt would be a 36-month process) even with an MoU with a customer to convert a number of 777-200s. Boeing first started talking about a 777 Boeing Converted Freighter in 2008 and announced in 2009 that they could have a 777-200 family BCF program up and running within half a year and start conversions in 2010. And then there was LCF Conversions with their lift-system for pallets.

Boeing's O&D page shows 49 777-300ERs currently assigned to GECAS (along with 10 777F). I could see GECAS providing financial and marketing support to IAI to launch this conversion for the 777-300ER to prolong the usable life of not just their frames, but others to keep those GE90 OnePoint maintenance dollars coming in.
 
jagraham
Posts: 959
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:55 pm

There are still about 200 747 freighters other than 748Fs. All are getting long in the tooth, and the conversions do not have the approx. 124t capacity of the purpose built 744F; these would be ideal candidates to be replaced with 77WF (whatever the designation ends up being) converted freighters. And while a 77W conversion will have little to no consumption advantage over a 748F (which carries 100t 4500nm using about 90t of fuel) (whereas the 77W conversion carries 100t about 4500 nm, fuel not given, but max fuel for 77W is 145t, so 351t - 160t (OEW estimate) - 100t (payload) = 90 t fuel approx.), the consumption advantage over a 747-400F (182t OEW, 288t max structural payload, 395t MTOW, about 105 t of fuel for a 100t payload carried 4500 nm) is 15%.

So since the 77WF can carry pretty much the 744F payload and range, and equal to or greater than a converted 744 pax aircraft, and has 2 engines, it would be an ideal 744F / 744BDSF etc. replacement.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos