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Blueknows
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:11 am

santi319 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
They had to ditch MEX. it was low performing and only 3 B6 crew members(the rest were contract company). They need the MEX slots for 2020 DY Interline flights. Look for DY to fly into B6 terminals in 2020 BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO. This is all part of the big Europe plan coming in 2021.

LMAO that just doesnt work like that, the slots are awarded by the Government depending on what the carriers are offering and what is best for the traveling public (according to them).

Did you miss the whole AM-EK thing?



https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-460612/
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:41 am

dampfnudel wrote:
I thought it was a good route, apparently not.


Everyone thinks anywhere to MEX is automatically a great route for U.S. based carriers, but the times are usually crap, the yields are trash due to reliance on consolidators still running the market, and you need strong Spanish language support in the contact centers. It’s hard to make MEX work; that’s why so many carriers stick to the beach destinations where point of sale is largely on the U.S. side.
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usflyer msp
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:24 am

Blueknows wrote:
They had to ditch MEX. it was low performing and only 3 B6 crew members(the rest were contract company). They need the MEX slots for 2020 DY Interline flights. Look for DY to fly into B6 terminals in 2020 BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO. This is all part of the big Europe plan coming in 2021.


Neither BOS, FLL, or MCO are slot controlled and the 11am slot B6 uses for JFK-MEX is useless for transatlantic flights.

Think again....
 
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chepos
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B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:50 am

Blueknows wrote:
They had to ditch MEX. it was low performing and only 3 B6 crew members(the rest were contract company). They need the MEX slots for 2020 DY Interline flights. Look for DY to fly into B6 terminals in 2020 BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO. This is all part of the big Europe plan coming in 2021.


You have alluded to the MEX cancelation as a necessity due to the DY interline agreement. I fail to see how one thing has to do with the other. More than likely MEX was a market that just did not work out plain and simple. Nothing unique to B6, every airline has markets they struggle in that others can make work.


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JBLUA320
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:42 am

Blueknows wrote:
They had to ditch MEX. it was low performing and only 3 B6 crew members(the rest were contract company). They need the MEX slots for 2020 DY Interline flights. Look for DY to fly into B6 terminals in 2020 BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO. This is all part of the big Europe plan coming in 2021.


No room at the inn at JFK. Norwegian has 4-7 Dreamliners on the ground at JFK per night - where at T5 are they going to go? As it is, they have to swing a gate out of commission if they're forced to stick Hawaiian and Aer Lingus at a gate outside of T5i.
 
tphuang
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:23 am

Okay, this has nothing to do with DY and TATL. Let's start with that.

Anyone who has looked at their international LF numbers lately can see MEX was huge red in their network. The only annoyance for me is that they have chosen to keep Cuba going even after years of huge losses. I thought they'd keep BOS/FLL-MEX given that former has no competition and latter is their main Latin America hub, but yields out of those markets were never good.

They were getting squeezed by DL/AM JV and AA on the top end and also the Mexican ULCCs at bottom. Their cost is higher than the Mexican ULCCs and they could only price at the level of Interjet and Volaris. Never a good combination.

Btw, this is completely different dynamic from TATL market.

The big question is what to do with those planes. They clearly have a plane shortage issue with A321NEO delays, so need to cancel under performing routes in order to expand elsewhere. I sure hope they add new underserved markets to BOS/FLL rather than flooding capacity on JFK-ACK/SDQ/STI/SJU and tanking those routes performance.
 
jplatts
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
The big question is what to do with those planes. They clearly have a plane shortage issue with A321NEO delays, so need to cancel under performing routes in order to expand elsewhere. I sure hope they add new underserved markets to BOS/FLL rather than flooding capacity on JFK-ACK/SDQ/STI/SJU and tanking those routes performance.


There are also a few additional domestic routes that could be added by B6 out of JFK such as JFK-CLE/DFW/MSP/BNA.
 
invertir
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:33 pm

MEX is notoriously difficult point of sale... It's rumored that even with the DL/AM JV, they are still struggling.
 
B752OS
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:13 pm

How much larger is the Seattle - Mexico City market than the Boston - Mexico City market?
 
RCS763AV
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:50 am

This is surprising. B6 are doing well on their south american bases (BOG, CTG, MDE, UIO, GYE and LIM) even recently starting GYE-JFK. Markets which are all smaller than MEX and have a lot of competition (especially Colombia). I just think the DL/AM JV is a though competitor to deal with.

Too bad for MEX.
 
hohd
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:44 pm

I am surprised that they are closing the station entirely. They cannot make FLL-MEX work ? They are the only airline on this route and have connecting traffic at FLL. May be they should have tried harder by working with travel agents in Mexico and/or partnering with some airline at MEX, which does not fly to FLL/MIA area. Withdrawing rest of the cities may make sense but FLL route does not, you cannot retreat too much either.

For B6 to succeed ultimately in many challenging routes, may be they need to have an alliance with AS to create a 5th major airline combination in US.
 
tphuang
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:04 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
This is surprising. B6 are doing well on their south american bases (BOG, CTG, MDE, UIO, GYE and LIM) even recently starting GYE-JFK. Markets which are all smaller than MEX and have a lot of competition (especially Colombia). I just think the DL/AM JV is a though competitor to deal with.

Too bad for MEX.

It's not just the JV but also all the ulcc. A lot of low cost competition.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
This is surprising. B6 are doing well on their south american bases (BOG, CTG, MDE, UIO, GYE and LIM) even recently starting GYE-JFK. Markets which are all smaller than MEX and have a lot of competition (especially Colombia). I just think the DL/AM JV is a though competitor to deal with.

Too bad for MEX.

It's not just the JV but also all the ulcc. A lot of low cost competition.


Not on BOS-MEX.
Perhaps the issue was that B6 did not have any interline partner at MEX. Or better: a codeshare partner. Then B6 could have offered e.g. BOS-MEX-BJX/MID/PVR/TGZ/ etc.
 
RCS763AV
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:16 pm

tphuang wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
This is surprising. B6 are doing well on their south american bases (BOG, CTG, MDE, UIO, GYE and LIM) even recently starting GYE-JFK. Markets which are all smaller than MEX and have a lot of competition (especially Colombia). I just think the DL/AM JV is a though competitor to deal with.

Too bad for MEX.

It's not just the JV but also all the ulcc. A lot of low cost competition.


Indeed. A lot of low-cost competition is present on Mexico-USA.

But that can also be said of Colombia-USA. B6 has ULCC competition (Spirit and Vivaair) on all of its routes to Colombia except for JFK-CTG. I guess the combination of ULCCs + the JV squeezed them out of Mexico as you stated. That leaves me to wonder, will that be the story when UA/AV/CM/AD form their JV? Is the B6 product just not competitive enough due to higher costs - having to compete with ULCC fares?

Kinda worrying for the macro picture of their LatAm operation in the coming years.
 
dcajet
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:41 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
tphuang wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
This is surprising. B6 are doing well on their south american bases (BOG, CTG, MDE, UIO, GYE and LIM) even recently starting GYE-JFK. Markets which are all smaller than MEX and have a lot of competition (especially Colombia). I just think the DL/AM JV is a though competitor to deal with.

Too bad for MEX.

It's not just the JV but also all the ulcc. A lot of low cost competition.


Indeed. A lot of low-cost competition is present on Mexico-USA.

But that can also be said of Colombia-USA. B6 has ULCC competition (Spirit and Vivaair) on all of its routes to Colombia except for JFK-CTG. I guess the combination of ULCCs + the JV squeezed them out of Mexico as you stated. That leaves me to wonder, will that be the story when UA/AV/CM/AD form their JV? Is the B6 product just not competitive enough due to higher costs - having to compete with ULCC fares?

Kinda worrying for the macro picture of their LatAm operation in the coming years.


MEX has always been a challenging POS; I'd imagine that for the US3, a good portion of their business out/in of MEX is International connections via the US. The 3 airlines that can't offer that type of business have abandoned operations there (AS/B6/WN) and the Mexican ULCCs have chased them away, from the bottom.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:29 pm

If you accept that Mexico POS is just hard for WN/B6 (and AS), hard enough to drive B6 off JFK-MEX (one of the 20 busiest international airport pairs from the U.S., and not even including EWR volumes), I have to ask where the heck WN's Gary Kelly thinks he's going to find fifty new destinations. https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/ ... -ambi.aspx

LAX-MEX and LAX-GDL are also in the top 20. All three are bigger than any USA-GRU airport pair, the busiest of which is MIA-GRU (if it needs to be said).
 
tphuang
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:03 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
tphuang wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
This is surprising. B6 are doing well on their south american bases (BOG, CTG, MDE, UIO, GYE and LIM) even recently starting GYE-JFK. Markets which are all smaller than MEX and have a lot of competition (especially Colombia). I just think the DL/AM JV is a though competitor to deal with.

Too bad for MEX.

It's not just the JV but also all the ulcc. A lot of low cost competition.


Indeed. A lot of low-cost competition is present on Mexico-USA.

But that can also be said of Colombia-USA. B6 has ULCC competition (Spirit and Vivaair) on all of its routes to Colombia except for JFK-CTG. I guess the combination of ULCCs + the JV squeezed them out of Mexico as you stated. That leaves me to wonder, will that be the story when UA/AV/CM/AD form their JV? Is the B6 product just not competitive enough due to higher costs - having to compete with ULCC fares?

Kinda worrying for the macro picture of their LatAm operation in the coming years.


So B6 typically does terribly when it gets squeezed from the top and bottom and doesn't have a visible point of sale to get. That's how they got crushed on FLL-BWI/DTW/PIT. All markets where point of sale is dominated on the other side and they faced WN/DL on the top end and NK on the bottom. They clearly have higher cost than the likes of NK, so need higher fares to be viable. And if nobody is willing to pay higher fares to fly with them, they lose out.

For most of their JFK routes, they don't have this problem, since there is no lower cost competition than B6. It is however a huge problem on JFK-MEX. It's not able to get the same revenue as DL/AM JV nor does it have the lower cost of the Mexican ULCC in a market that's more toward Mexican point of sale. Even in markets where there is strong presence on the other side like JFK-ATL, they do ok because there is enough point of sale from New York side to make a reduced schedule work and there is no ULCC competition for the crowd that prefers JFK over LGA.

For MCO-MEX, they just don't have enough point of sale at MCO. A lot of their MCO routes are struggling due to lack of investment in the market.

FLL-MEX is another JFK situation where they are getting squeezed by both AM/DL and AA on the top end and ULCC on the bottom. They still chase mostly O&D at FLL, so not getting enough connections to make it work.
 
Brickell305
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:26 pm

dcajet wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
tphuang wrote:
It's not just the JV but also all the ulcc. A lot of low cost competition.


Indeed. A lot of low-cost competition is present on Mexico-USA.

But that can also be said of Colombia-USA. B6 has ULCC competition (Spirit and Vivaair) on all of its routes to Colombia except for JFK-CTG. I guess the combination of ULCCs + the JV squeezed them out of Mexico as you stated. That leaves me to wonder, will that be the story when UA/AV/CM/AD form their JV? Is the B6 product just not competitive enough due to higher costs - having to compete with ULCC fares?

Kinda worrying for the macro picture of their LatAm operation in the coming years.


MEX has always been a challenging POS; I'd imagine that for the US3, a good portion of their business out/in of MEX is International connections via the US. The 3 airlines that can't offer that type of business have abandoned operations there (AS/B6/WN) and the Mexican ULCCs have chased them away, from the bottom.

That along with business travel and the legacies have the US share pretty well locked up and AM would get the bulk of the Mexican share. B6 with one flight a day to its hubs was unlikely to be able to get pretty far with this segment.
 
Abeam79
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
tphuang wrote:
]

.

For MCO-MEX, they just don't have enough point of sale at MCO. A lot of their MCO routes are struggling due to lack of investment in the market.
.


What other routes from mco? I heard mco is one of their most profitable focus cities.
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:32 pm

catiii wrote:
They just don’t have Atlanta to subsidize their losses.


What does that even mean?!
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stl07
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:19 am

RDUDDJI wrote:
catiii wrote:
They just don’t have Atlanta to subsidize their losses.


What does that even mean?!

The ATL hub is super profitible, and allows DL to subsidize losses from places like SEA that are big, important cities.
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
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catiii
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:01 am

stl07 wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
catiii wrote:
They just don’t have Atlanta to subsidize their losses.


What does that even mean?!

The ATL hub is super profitible, and allows DL to subsidize losses from places like SEA that are big, important cities.


Exactly. They can underwrite the financial losses they take in SEA, BOS, et al because they make so much money in Atlanta.
 
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DBCoop3r
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:05 am

What data do you 2 have that shows DL loses money at SEA and BOS? I fly to SEA often and DLs fares are very high with packed planes. Their summer fares are insane actually, I'd be very surprised they lose money at either BOS or SEA. Maybe a couple months out of the year they lose money, but that's it.

In fact looking at it, DL is in the process of upgrading a lot of service to mainline entirely.

What data are you looking at?
 
tphuang
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:48 pm

DBCoop3r wrote:
What data do you 2 have that shows DL loses money at SEA and BOS? I fly to SEA often and DLs fares are very high with packed planes. Their summer fares are insane actually, I'd be very surprised they lose money at either BOS or SEA. Maybe a couple months out of the year they lose money, but that's it.

In fact looking at it, DL is in the process of upgrading a lot of service to mainline entirely.

What data are you looking at?

I post the BOS numbers on JetBlue thread after every quarter. At the very least, the margins out of SEA/BOS are far below system average. More likely, they lose money outside of the peak summer month.
 
dtremit
Posts: 164
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:58 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
If you accept that Mexico POS is just hard for WN/B6 (and AS), hard enough to drive B6 off JFK-MEX (one of the 20 busiest international airport pairs from the U.S., and not even including EWR volumes), I have to ask where the heck WN's Gary Kelly thinks he's going to find fifty new destinations. https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/ ... -ambi.aspx

LAX-MEX and LAX-GDL are also in the top 20. All three are bigger than any USA-GRU airport pair, the busiest of which is MIA-GRU (if it needs to be said).


Guessing Kelly is just talking about vacation destinations. B6 has ~36 international destinations and only one is in Mexico. Could also potentially see some flights to Canada, I guess?

Also a fundamental difference within Mexico between MEX and vacation destinations like CUN / PVR / SJD -- the POS on the latter is overwhelmingly in the US.

I would go out on a limb and also say that WN *could* potentially make Mexico work from cities like LAX and maybe PHX where there's a huge VFR contingent buying tickets on the US side. B6 doesn't have any cities that would support that, really.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3670
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Re: B6 Ending MEX 1/9?

Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:56 am

dtremit wrote:
I would go out on a limb and also say that WN *could* potentially make Mexico work from cities like LAX and maybe PHX where there's a huge VFR contingent buying tickets on the US side. B6 doesn't have any cities that would support that, really.


WN has already announced in its August 15th schedule extension that it is going to be permanently discontinuing LAX-CUN and LAX-PVR nonstop service on January 5, 2020.

Seasonal Sunday-only LAX-SJD nonstop service will be the only remaining nonstop international route out of LAX on WN after WN discontinues LAX-CUN/PVR nonstop service on January 5, 2020.

I do not expect WN to add nonstop service out of LAX to Mexico apart from its remaining seasonal Sunday-only LAX-SJC nonstop service anytime soon with WN having already announced plans to drop LAX-CUN/PVR nonstop service in January 2020.

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