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Bluewho
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
The B6 FLL-PUJ is only surprising because of the time of year it’s happening. I also don’t think it’s entirely just the PUJ end as they haven’t done similar suspensions from BOS/JFK. I also don’t know of any other carrier that flies FLL/MIA-PUJ suspending flights outright. It was just two or so weeks ago that the OAG thread showed B6 reducing 10 different FLL-Caribbean routes year on year. There seems to be a particular weakness there. B6 may be doing well domestically from FLL but international (Caribbean) seems like a whole other kettle of fish.


Seems NK and WN are having an impact on these routes. WN MAX situation not withstanding, I think Southwest was willing to absorb losses in FLL just to drive a weakening competitor in B6 to the brink. Even if WN isn't performing as well on these routes as B6 they are having an impact and have the financial security to engage in predatory behavior. Also NK seems a stronger force at FLL relative to WN and B6 then they have in sometime and appear financially healthier than B6 long-term.

Also the BA drop-down to 2 dailies from MIA is interesting. Will AA replace that flight? Does this give DL/VS an opening for a second daily or upgauge?


NK is the bigger problem for B6. WN I don't think is much of a concern going forward. All the numbers show WN is weakening at FLL and NK is strengthening. WN growth over the 2 years didn't gain them any traction. That kind of growth doesn't last. NK has grown and gotten more profitable at FLL.

Unfortunately given the situation at BOS and with A321NEO delays, FLL is not going to get much growth in the next year or so. You are going to see some reductions on underperforming routes to fund additions elsewhere. They dialed back frequencies to some Latin American markets but they've also added GCM/STI/SX/GYE in the past year and half. People got used to B6 adding 15 to 20% flights a year at FLL, but we are not in that phase right now, so they are going adjust schedule based on demand. DR i think is temporary unless tourism never comes back there. MEX is gone and I personally think Cuba reductions need to happen also.

I think once A220 comes along and basic economy pricing comes into play, FLL will start growing again more rapidly.



I think the big thing here is the lack of 321s coming. That has obviously hit B6 and caused them to figure out what is really important and what isn’t worth it.

As usual for some reason it’s omg B6 is failing and I don’t for the life of me understand why that is the theme here. SWA just pulled out of EWR and a bunch of flights from Bos are they a failing airline? How about ALK reductions on the west coast?

Financially speaking this idea that JetBlue is being pushed to the brink is simply crazy. They are going to spend another 800 million to buy back stock (I wish they would do something else with it)
Right now ALL THEY CARE ABOUT IS EPS and management is doing everything they can to get it. Now that’s a totally different debate to have about that obsession.

I think basic economy will definitely help but Jetblue isn’t about to die. It’s been said for 19 years now and is getting old.

They will probably have ehhh earnings on the 22nd so I expect another JetBlue is close to death thread.

Oh oh and they can’t compete with Delta or SWA or Spirit and they are not on time and who cares about mint and they will never be successful going over the pond and on and on.

Now the real debate is what is our wonderful management team going to do about the morale that keeps sinking, that is real and if not taken care of could actually push JetBlue into a bad place.
 
maps4ltd
Posts: 551
Joined: Tue May 08, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:52 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

But OW was 5x (3x BA and 2x AA), so now it’s going to only 4x during peak. That’s a reduction over last year at the same time, no?

Looking at random dates in Jan & Feb it also looks like VS drops down to 1x daily. Lot of capacity cut on MIA-LHR

It used to be 2x AA, 2x BA (77W, 772, B747, A380) until last winter when it became 1x AA, 3xBA (77W, B747, B747, A380). AFAIK, VS has always been 1x @ MIA and DY recently shifted their flight over to MIA. It’s a OW downgrade in capacity for sure but not in frequency.


Got it. Thanks for clarifying!


I think the LGW-FLL cut by BA also hurt capacity. Didn't they say they were going to shift it to MIA?
Delta Gold Medallion
 
HP69
Posts: 224
Joined: Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:15 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
It used to be 2x AA, 2x BA (77W, 772, B747, A380) until last winter when it became 1x AA, 3xBA (77W, B747, B747, A380). AFAIK, VS has always been 1x @ MIA and DY recently shifted their flight over to MIA. It’s a OW downgrade in capacity for sure but not in frequency.


Got it. Thanks for clarifying!


I think the LGW-FLL cut by BA also hurt capacity. Didn't they say they were going to shift it to MIA?

Yes, they were going to add a fourth flight.
 
MARSHAL1
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 24, 2009 5:29 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:52 am

It looks like 10-27-19 AA adds a 2nd 777 on the LHR-MIA route.
On Jan 6, 2020 AA will have 2 @ 777-300s with First Class. Looks like there's a lot of demand for AA on the MIA-LHR route.
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:32 pm

Another week, another round of California cuts by AS. I think it's actually pretty funny that in the same week you see AS pulling out of SFO markets, you see UA reducing back to the capacity levels they had before AS came in. IND/BNA/MCI-SFO as examples.

Maybe the AS strategy is to ditch all this and defend Hawaii from WN? That might work if WN cared about making money in Hawaii, but they don't. They just want to hurt AS and have Hawaii on the map for redemptions.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1216
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:24 pm

TW787 wrote:
That might work if WN cared about making money in Hawaii, but they don't. They just want to hurt AS and have Hawaii on the map for redemptions.


When has not making money been WN’s strategy?
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1548
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:11 pm

TW787 wrote:
Another week, another round of California cuts by AS. I think it's actually pretty funny that in the same week you see AS pulling out of SFO markets, you see UA reducing back to the capacity levels they had before AS came in. IND/BNA/MCI-SFO as examples.

Maybe the AS strategy is to ditch all this and defend Hawaii from WN? That might work if WN cared about making money in Hawaii, but they don't. They just want to hurt AS and have Hawaii on the map for redemptions.


Now that it appears AS is retreating from the long distance routes to the Midwest and East, and their alliance with AA is being undone, how does AS go forward in a market where FF programs seem to be so important to success? They seem to be changing their strategy from trying to get people from certain cities in the west to basically everywhere, to going back to a niche carrier in the west. How can they stand up, economically, to DL and UA, who through their build up of service in places like SEA and their multiple hubs, can get you pretty much everywhere in the US not to mention internationally? How does AS expect to compete?
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:34 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:

When has not making money been WN’s strategy?


Sorry for having some strategic nuance, I know that isn't well received here. Implying that I think their overall objective is to lose money is a little ridiculous. But the route network is a portfolio, and there are money losers in there as well as big profit producers. Just as in any business, management can choose to strategically invest in something that has a longer-term payout. That is what Hawaii is for WN. They know that AS makes a lot of their profits there, so if they can weaken AS then there is less opportunity for AS to grow in West Coast intra-Cal or Midwest where WN makes a lot of its money because they have monopolies. So is WN trying to make money as a company? Of course. Does it care if it makes money in Hawaii right now? No, it does not.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14572
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:21 pm

TW787 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

When has not making money been WN’s strategy?


Sorry for having some strategic nuance, I know that isn't well received here. Implying that I think their overall objective is to lose money is a little ridiculous. But the route network is a portfolio, and there are money losers in there as well as big profit producers. Just as in any business, management can choose to strategically invest in something that has a longer-term payout. That is what Hawaii is for WN. They know that AS makes a lot of their profits there, so if they can weaken AS then there is less opportunity for AS to grow in West Coast intra-Cal or Midwest where WN makes a lot of its money because they have monopolies. So is WN trying to make money as a company? Of course. Does it care if it makes money in Hawaii right now? No, it does not.


I agree with everything you've written, but I'm not convinced that WN is content to lose money in Hawaii long-term. If AS is similarly thinking longer-term, maybe their strategy makes sense.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1216
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:56 pm

TW787 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

When has not making money been WN’s strategy?


Sorry for having some strategic nuance, I know that isn't well received here. Implying that I think their overall objective is to lose money is a little ridiculous. But the route network is a portfolio, and there are money losers in there as well as big profit producers. Just as in any business, management can choose to strategically invest in something that has a longer-term payout. That is what Hawaii is for WN. They know that AS makes a lot of their profits there, so if they can weaken AS then there is less opportunity for AS to grow in West Coast intra-Cal or Midwest where WN makes a lot of its money because they have monopolies. So is WN trying to make money as a company? Of course. Does it care if it makes money in Hawaii right now? No, it does not.


My point is where else have you seen WN enter a market with quite a few routes with a focus on losing money? Going to Hawaii for frequent fliers makes no sense and I don’t think they really feel threatened by AS.
 
TW787
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:58 am

SFOtoORD wrote:

My point is where else have you seen WN enter a market with quite a few routes with a focus on losing money? Going to Hawaii for frequent fliers makes no sense and I don’t think they really feel threatened by AS.


There are many examples, but EWR is probably the most obvious recent example.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1054
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:05 pm

TW787 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

My point is where else have you seen WN enter a market with quite a few routes with a focus on losing money? Going to Hawaii for frequent fliers makes no sense and I don’t think they really feel threatened by AS.


There are many examples, but EWR is probably the most obvious recent example.

Their focus in EWR wasn’t losing money. That’s why they left when they couldn’t make it profitable.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1216
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:12 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
TW787 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

My point is where else have you seen WN enter a market with quite a few routes with a focus on losing money? Going to Hawaii for frequent fliers makes no sense and I don’t think they really feel threatened by AS.


There are many examples, but EWR is probably the most obvious recent example.

Their focus in EWR wasn’t losing money. That’s why they left when they couldn’t make it profitable.


Exactly. They planned to make money pulling traffic on some UA dominated routes and it didn’t work out financially or operationally. Hawai’i will be easier to make money on.
 
sprxUSA
Posts: 421
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 5:17 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:45 pm

TW787 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

My point is where else have you seen WN enter a market with quite a few routes with a focus on losing money? Going to Hawaii for frequent fliers makes no sense and I don’t think they really feel threatened by AS.


There are many examples, but EWR is probably the most obvious recent example.


I would also say PHL. WN entered a bunch of loser routes when US was teetering, but major draw downs when US did not shut down.
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1216
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: OAG Changes 10/20/2019:B6 Suspends PUJ-FLL;DL Drops MHH;F9 Back in IAD-MCO;LO Drops BUD-ORD

Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:30 pm

sprxUSA wrote:
TW787 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

My point is where else have you seen WN enter a market with quite a few routes with a focus on losing money? Going to Hawaii for frequent fliers makes no sense and I don’t think they really feel threatened by AS.


There are many examples, but EWR is probably the most obvious recent example.


I would also say PHL. WN entered a bunch of loser routes when US was teetering, but major draw downs when US did not shut down.


You’re also missing the point. They didn’t enter PHL to lose money. US was always vicious in that market and eventually WN had better places to earn a return.

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