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doug
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50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:41 pm

Orlando has been surging lately but they also benefit from being the only show in town (MIA has FLL 20 miles away).With that being said Orlando has made a serious jump and shows no signs of slowing.Possibly with the recent Delta LatAm deal and a likely response from American maybe Miami can make a climb as well.Thoughts
Last edited by doug on Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:43 pm

MCO no question.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:56 pm

Looking at data, for half year MCO is on track.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... er_traffic
In 2018
MCO #34, #27 for half year due to FAST growth.
MIA #43, unknown for half year as MIA isn't growing fast enough to make the shorter (top 30) half list.

The full list for 2019 won't be out until May 2020 or so.

MCO is the answer.

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ClipperGoodwill
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:35 pm

MCO will hit 50 Million in September 2019 on a rolling 12 months. August 2019 rolling 12 month total 49.9 Million.
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FWAERJ
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:59 pm

doug wrote:
Orlando has been surging lately but they also benefit from being the only show in town (MIA has FLL 20 miles away)


SFB also serves Orlando, is home to G4’s biggest operation, and has grown to the point where the folks that run MCO are suing the folks that run SFB over the word “Orlando” in SFB’s name. Notice that MCO didn’t sue until SFB transitioned from a public charter/EU/UK airport to one where G4 bases tons of A32x and only the TUI Group hasn’t moved to MCO among EU/UK airlines.

SFB is Orlando’s de facto second airport. Could the terminal expansion and rising costs at MCO force other ULCCs to take a look at SFB? Only time will tell.
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doug
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:40 pm

Does SFB handle 35 million like FLL does
 
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flymco753
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:47 pm

MCO no question. SFB however, isnt at the extend of what FLL handles as a secondary. Assume FLL were to close for a week and everyone used MIA that would virtually secure MIA's victory. Also its worth noting that majority of the people using MCO arent even from there. MCO destination passengers majorly outweigh origin.
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lightsaber
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:14 pm

doug wrote:
Does SFB handle 35 million like FLL does

No, but that wasn't the question. SFB handled 3 million a few years ago, I couldn't find 2018/2019 data. If you argue FLL+ MIA > SFB + MCO, I agree.
But if you include FLL as part of Miami, you need to include TPA as part of greater Orlando... Florida is wonderfully served by airports with little traffic.

SFB traffic link:
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/travel/ ... story.html

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Miami
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:16 pm

doug wrote:
Orlando has been surging lately

Yeah, thanks to the Mouse.

MIA and FLL should've been one airport. Oh well.
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HP69
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:34 pm

FLL will probably hit 50 mil first because while MIA has AA and MCO has WN, FLL has the combined power of B6, NK, WN, and Silver hubs.
 
Brickell305
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
doug wrote:
Does SFB handle 35 million like FLL does

No, but that wasn't the question. SFB handled 3 million a few years ago, I couldn't find 2018/2019 data. If you argue FLL+ MIA > SFB + MCO, I agree.
But if you include FLL as part of Miami, you need to include TPA as part of greater Orlando... Florida is wonderfully served by airports with little traffic.

SFB traffic link:
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/travel/ ... story.html

Lightsaber

What? No you don’t. MIA and FLL are 20 miles apart in the same metro area. They’re closer than IAH/HOU, LHR/LGW and many other airports that are considered same city. TPA and MCO are 93 miles apart in two distinct metro areas. You may as well include RIC as a Washington DC area airport by that logic. TPA/MCO is in no way, shape or form comparable to MIA/FLL.
 
Brickell305
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:40 pm

HP69 wrote:
FLL will probably hit 50 mil first because while MIA has AA and MCO has WN, FLL has the combined power of B6, NK, WN, and Silver hubs.

Hell will freeze over before FLL hits 50 million passengers ahead of MIA.
 
HP69
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:43 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
HP69 wrote:
FLL will probably hit 50 mil first because while MIA has AA and MCO has WN, FLL has the combined power of B6, NK, WN, and Silver hubs.

Hell will freeze over before FLL hits 50 million passengers ahead of MIA.


Excuse me FLL experienced almost 20% growth last year while MIA was flat.
 
Jonathanxxxx
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:54 pm

lightsaber wrote:
doug wrote:
Does SFB handle 35 million like FLL does

No, but that wasn't the question. SFB handled 3 million a few years ago, I couldn't find 2018/2019 data. If you argue FLL+ MIA > SFB + MCO, I agree.
But if you include FLL as part of Miami, you need to include TPA as part of greater Orlando... Florida is wonderfully served by airports with little traffic.

SFB traffic link:
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/travel/ ... story.html

Lightsaber


This is just a pissing contest. If you include TPA for Orlando, then include PBI for Miami as well. Using that logic, PIE and MLB would serve Orlando too. Measuring air traffic across different metros is a bit of an apples to orange comparison.

FLL and MIA compete for many similar traffic flows and have a large population sitting between the two airports. In my view, although air traffic from TPA and MCO does bleed from one city to the next, TPA has its own traffic flows and so does MCO. Unlike South Florida, there aren’t many people (relatively speaking) living in the land between MCO and TPA. The population is much more spread out due to the distance. For reference, FLL and MIA are only separated by about 20 miles while TPA and MCO are about 90 miles away from each other.

The topic of the thread is which *airport* will reach 50m first. To which I vote Orlando because of the traffic distribution outlined in previous replies. MCO is both the preferred and largest option for the metro, and its secondary airports don’t compete with it at the same level MIA and FLL (and to a much lesser extent PBI) compete with each other for air traffic. IMO the greater amount of airports and larger land area in Central Florida has led to more fragmentation in the market.
 
Brickell305
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:56 pm

HP69 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
HP69 wrote:
FLL will probably hit 50 mil first because while MIA has AA and MCO has WN, FLL has the combined power of B6, NK, WN, and Silver hubs.

Hell will freeze over before FLL hits 50 million passengers ahead of MIA.


Excuse me FLL experienced almost 20% growth last year while MIA was flat.


No, it didn't. It was (an impressive) 10.6% to get them to 35K passengers. MIA meanwhile grew at 2.2% to get to 45K passengers. However, FLL numbers are DOWN this year with the runway closure, BA's departure, among other things while MIA continues to grow.

https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... er2018.pdf

http://www.miami-airport.com/library/pd ... Report.pdf

https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... 019_ac.pdf

http://www.miami-airport.com/library/pd ... Report.pdf
 
Brickell305
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:58 pm

Jonathanxxxx wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
doug wrote:
Does SFB handle 35 million like FLL does

No, but that wasn't the question. SFB handled 3 million a few years ago, I couldn't find 2018/2019 data. If you argue FLL+ MIA > SFB + MCO, I agree.
But if you include FLL as part of Miami, you need to include TPA as part of greater Orlando... Florida is wonderfully served by airports with little traffic.

SFB traffic link:
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/travel/ ... story.html

Lightsaber


This is just a pissing contest. If you include TPA for Orlando, then include PBI for Miami as well. Using that logic, PIE and MLB would serve Orlando too. Measuring air traffic across different metros is a bit of an apples to orange comparison.

FLL and MIA compete for many similar traffic flows and have a large population sitting between the two airports. In my view, although air traffic from TPA and MCO does bleed from one city to the next, TPA has its own traffic flows and so does MCO. Unlike South Florida, there aren’t many people (relatively speaking) living in the land between MCO and TPA. The population is much more spread out due to the distance. For reference, FLL and MIA are only separated by about 20 miles while TPA and MCO are about 90 miles away from each other.

The topic of the thread is which *airport* will reach 50m first. To which I vote Orlando because of the traffic distribution outlined in previous replies. MCO is both the preferred and largest option for the metro, and its secondary airports don’t compete with it at the same level MIA and FLL (and to a much lesser extent PBI) compete with each other for air traffic. IMO the greater amount of airports and larger land area in Central Florida has led to more fragmentation in the market.

Don't forget to add EYW to Miami and SRQ to Orlando as well.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:59 pm

FWAERJ wrote:
doug wrote:
Orlando has been surging lately but they also benefit from being the only show in town (MIA has FLL 20 miles away)


SFB also serves Orlando, is home to G4’s biggest operation, and has grown to the point where the folks that run MCO are suing the folks that run SFB over the word “Orlando” in SFB’s name. Notice that MCO didn’t sue until SFB transitioned from a public charter/EU/UK airport to one where G4 bases tons of A32x and only the TUI Group hasn’t moved to MCO among EU/UK airlines.

SFB is Orlando’s de facto second airport. Could the terminal expansion and rising costs at MCO force other ULCCs to take a look at SFB? Only time will tell.


I live in eastern Seminole County (18 mi. northeast of Orlando) and it would be great if another good-sized airline came into SFB. We are roughly 45 minutes from MCO, but less than 20 minutes from SFB. Seminole and Southwestern Volusia County combined have a population of more than 500K, so there is a good local catchment area to draw from. Having G4 is nice, but not everyone can work with their odd scheduling, especially business travellers.

As for MCO, it is such a physically-large airport with plenty more room for expansion. I imagine they will hit the 50 million number in the next decade.
 
HP69
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:02 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
HP69 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Hell will freeze over before FLL hits 50 million passengers ahead of MIA.


Excuse me FLL experienced almost 20% growth last year while MIA was flat.


No, it didn't. It was (an impressive) 10.6% to get them to 35K passengers. MIA meanwhile grew at 2.2% to get to 45K passengers. However, FLL numbers are DOWN this year with the runway closure, BA's departure, among other things while MIA continues to grow.

https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... er2018.pdf

http://www.miami-airport.com/library/pd ... Report.pdf

https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... 019_ac.pdf

http://www.miami-airport.com/library/pd ... Report.pdf


You seriously believe that BA canceling a 3x weekly flight had even a remote impact on FLL's overall pax count?
 
Brickell305
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:05 pm

HP69 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
HP69 wrote:

Excuse me FLL experienced almost 20% growth last year while MIA was flat.


No, it didn't. It was (an impressive) 10.6% to get them to 35K passengers. MIA meanwhile grew at 2.2% to get to 45K passengers. However, FLL numbers are DOWN this year with the runway closure, BA's departure, among other things while MIA continues to grow.

https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... er2018.pdf

http://www.miami-airport.com/library/pd ... Report.pdf

https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... 019_ac.pdf

http://www.miami-airport.com/library/pd ... Report.pdf


You seriously believe that BA canceling a 3x weekly flight had even a remote impact on FLL's overall pax count?

Yes, I believe the cancellation was one of the factors that led to a decrease in passengers. FLL went from two carriers from LGW to none. That would have an effect on passenger count, no?
 
HP69
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:06 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
HP69 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:

No, it didn't. It was (an impressive) 10.6% to get them to 35K passengers. MIA meanwhile grew at 2.2% to get to 45K passengers. However, FLL numbers are DOWN this year with the runway closure, BA's departure, among other things while MIA continues to grow.

https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... er2018.pdf

http://www.miami-airport.com/library/pd ... Report.pdf

https://www.broward.org/Airport/Busines ... 019_ac.pdf

http://www.miami-airport.com/library/pd ... Report.pdf


You seriously believe that BA canceling a 3x weekly flight had even a remote impact on FLL's overall pax count?

Yes, I believe the cancellation was one of the factors that led to a decrease in passengers. FLL went from two carriers from LGW to none. That would have an effect on passenger count, no?


BA had less than 700 seats each week to LGW. Losing that has literally no effect on overall FLL pax counts.
 
Brickell305
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:09 pm

HP69 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
HP69 wrote:

You seriously believe that BA canceling a 3x weekly flight had even a remote impact on FLL's overall pax count?

Yes, I believe the cancellation was one of the factors that led to a decrease in passengers. FLL went from two carriers from LGW to none. That would have an effect on passenger count, no?


BA had less than 700 seats each week to LGW. Losing that has literally no effect on overall FLL pax counts.

You do realize that if any hypothetical airline flew as much as one passenger a year to an airport and then stopped, that it would literally have an effect on passenger numbers?
 
ClipperGoodwill
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:36 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
As for MCO, it is such a physically-large airport with plenty more room for expansion. I imagine they will hit the 50 million number in the next decade.


Try.....this year!

https://orlandoairports.net/about-us/#traffic-statistics
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B752OS
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:45 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
HP69 wrote:
FLL will probably hit 50 mil first because while MIA has AA and MCO has WN, FLL has the combined power of B6, NK, WN, and Silver hubs.

Hell will freeze over before FLL hits 50 million passengers ahead of MIA.


Could FLL even handle 50 million a year?
 
HP69
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:49 pm

B752OS wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
HP69 wrote:
FLL will probably hit 50 mil first because while MIA has AA and MCO has WN, FLL has the combined power of B6, NK, WN, and Silver hubs.

Hell will freeze over before FLL hits 50 million passengers ahead of MIA.


Could FLL even handle 50 million a year?


Yes. It has plenty of unused gates.
 
Brickell305
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:50 pm

B752OS wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
HP69 wrote:
FLL will probably hit 50 mil first because while MIA has AA and MCO has WN, FLL has the combined power of B6, NK, WN, and Silver hubs.

Hell will freeze over before FLL hits 50 million passengers ahead of MIA.


Could FLL even handle 50 million a year?

Not likely without significantly more gate space and larger CBP facilities. I also don’t see where the passengers would come from. FLL is pretty much at peak service levels domestically and there’s no real demand for any significant level of increased international service.
 
ltbewr
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:09 am

It isn't just 'the Mouse' and other entertainment parks but other areas of growth MCO is seeing. Growing corporate offices due to the low taxes, moderate costs of living and decent weather. There has been growing numbers of Hispanics/Latinos, especially from Puerto Rico in the last 15 or so years, especially after the big hurricane. You have more direct international flights to MCO, so don't have to go via MIA or TPA. FLL is more about domestic flights, as many don't want to go through MIA if going to points north of MIA. It may be possible 50MM in a few years via MCO.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:22 am

MCO all the way.

They have SPACE. The new south terminal is huge.

The Main Terminal has become an overcrowded mess near security.

Frankly, MIA would grow quicker without a fortress hub in place!
 
sonicruiser
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:22 am

MCO no question
شما می توانید مردم را تحریم کنید ، اما نمی توانید سبک تحریم را اعمال کنید

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MAH4546
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:42 am

ltbewr wrote:
It isn't just 'the Mouse' and other entertainment parks but other areas of growth MCO is seeing. Growing corporate offices due to the low taxes, moderate costs of living and decent weather. There has been growing numbers of Hispanics/Latinos, especially from Puerto Rico in the last 15 or so years, especially after the big hurricane. You have more direct international flights to MCO, so don't have to go via MIA or TPA. FLL is more about domestic flights, as many don't want to go through MIA if going to points north of MIA. It may be possible 50MM in a few years via MCO.


FLL is one of the busiest airports in the U.S in terms international passengers. Not only does FLL handle more international passengers than MCO, it also handles more international traffic than Dallas, Boston Logan and Washington Dulles.
a.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:25 am

How about Orlando/Tampa and Miami/Fort Lauderdale build a airport together like dfw/sea?
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:55 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
As for MCO, it is such a physically-large airport with plenty more room for expansion. I imagine they will hit the 50 million number in the next decade.


Next decade. I would think by next year.

For 2018 MCO was 10% larger than MIA and growing 5x faster. That doesn't even sound like a contest as to who will reach 50 million first.

FAA final numbers (passengers boarding jets only)
3.21%   ATL   51,865,797
3.38%   LAX   42,624,050
3.32%   ORD   39,873,927
3.16%   DFW   32,821,799
5.21%   DEN   31,362,941
3.68%   JFK   30,620,769
3.31%   SFO   27,790,717
6.12%   SEA   24,024,908
1.84%   LAS   23,795,012
7.59%   MCO   23,202,480
5.69%   EWR   22,797,602
1.23%   CLT   22,281,949
2.06%   PHX   21,622,580
7.93%   IAH   21,157,398
1.51%   MIA   21,021,640
6.65%   BOS   20,006,521
-0.26%   MSP   18,361,942
11.35%   FLL   17,612,331
2.35%   DTW   17,436,837
7.16%   PHL   15,292,670
3.04%   LGA   15,058,501
3.05%   BWI   13,371,816
5.26%   SLC   12,226,730
9.28%   SAN   12,174,224
5.42%   IAD   11,621,623
-1.21%   DCA   11,366,771
-2.14%   MDW   10,678,018
8.59%   TPA   10,368,514
2.80%   HNL   10,017,149
3.91%   PDX   9,804,868


The above list is the 30 airports that boarded more than 1% of the 900 million passenger boardings (domestic and international | USA and foreign carriers) in the entire USA flight network.
 
Brickell305
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:02 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
It isn't just 'the Mouse' and other entertainment parks but other areas of growth MCO is seeing. Growing corporate offices due to the low taxes, moderate costs of living and decent weather. There has been growing numbers of Hispanics/Latinos, especially from Puerto Rico in the last 15 or so years, especially after the big hurricane. You have more direct international flights to MCO, so don't have to go via MIA or TPA. FLL is more about domestic flights, as many don't want to go through MIA if going to points north of MIA. It may be possible 50MM in a few years via MCO.


FLL is one of the busiest airports in the U.S in terms international passengers. Not only does FLL handle more international passengers than MCO, it also handles more international traffic than Dallas, Boston Logan and Washington Dulles.

Exactly. Orlando is definitely becoming more diverse and is increasingly becoming a bigger business center but if international diversity and business were the deciding factors, MIA would be the bigger airport by far. MCO is larger because of greater domestic demand.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:10 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
How about Orlando/Tampa and Miami/Fort Lauderdale build a airport together like dfw/sea?


The FAA told San Antonio and Austin they should build a shared airport halfway between the cities. The cities replied NO WAY.

Austin built a new airport that opened on May 23, 1999 only 66 air miles from SAT.

In 1994 San Antonio developed a new Airport Master Plan that would take the airport into the 21st century. This plan included major updates for the airport: more parking spaces in a 3,000 space parking garage to be completed by 2007, improved airport access and an improved concession program. Two new terminals were planned to replace Terminal 2, to increase the airports gate count to 35.

Unlike the other airports mentioned in this thread Austin and San Antonio are considered "medium" size airports by the FAA. The FAA considers an airport to be "large" if the number of boardings exceeds 1% of the total boardings of all commerical flights in the USA (900 million in 2018). There are 30 "large airports" followed by 31 "medium" airports.
#33 AUS Austin
#43 SAT San Antonio

A unified airport could very well have become a true hub for a major airline. Austin is a focus city for Southwest Airlines, and I believe Southwest is the dominant carrier at San Antonio as well.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:33 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
How about Orlando/Tampa and Miami/Fort Lauderdale build a airport together like dfw/sea?


The FAA told San Antonio and Austin they should build a shared airport halfway between the cities. The cities replied NO WAY.

Austin built a new airport that opened on May 23, 1999 only 66 air miles from SAT.

In 1994 San Antonio developed a new Airport Master Plan that would take the airport into the 21st century. This plan included major updates for the airport: more parking spaces in a 3,000 space parking garage to be completed by 2007, improved airport access and an improved concession program. Two new terminals were planned to replace Terminal 2, to increase the airports gate count to 35.

Unlike the other airports mentioned in this thread Austin and San Antonio are considered "medium" size airports by the FAA. The FAA considers an airport to be "large" if the number of boardings exceeds 1% of the total boardings of all commerical flights in the USA (900 million in 2018). There are 30 "large airports" followed by 31 "medium" airports.
#33 AUS Austin
#43 SAT San Antonio

A unified airport could very well have become a true hub for a major airline. Austin is a focus city for Southwest Airlines, and I believe Southwest is the dominant carrier at San Antonio as well.


Nothing personal but 900,000, 000 seems very high.
 
OB1504
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Re: 50 mill who gets there first MCO or MIA

Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:15 pm

MCO for sure. Plenty of room to grow while MIA is close to maxed out. However, MIA will definitely reach 50 million before FLL, which is also getting closer to its limits.

chunhimlai wrote:
How about Orlando/Tampa and Miami/Fort Lauderdale build a airport together like dfw/sea?


There’s nowhere to put a new airport in South Florida. The closest we ever got was a combined airport for Miami and Naples in the 1970s but the Everglades Jetport was quickly killed off for the environmental damage it would cause.

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