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seat1a
Topic Author
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JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:20 am

The Southwest Acquisition Speculation thread brought up the topic of JetBlue and it's A321 NEO's. My question is what would be the routes to deep South America with those jets? Would they fly them from FLL only, or MCO and JFK as well?
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:58 am

It depends, could be any city Jet Blue believes they can make a profit. This is speculation based on a thread speculating on what WN might be as a merger candidate. Who the hell knows?

GF
 
ahj2000
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:42 am

I'd imagine they stay in Florida. Not only are the big destinations from JFK more than adequately served, but the XLR can't even reach SCL/GRU/EZE.
-Andrés Juánez
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:52 pm

Out of JFK, the furthest route they'd probably try are UIO and LIM. I don't think it makes sense to deploy A321XLR out of JFK to South America. Out of FLL/MCO, they could try Brazil and Argentina for sure if they are willing to deploy A321XLR there. Otherwise, NEO doesn't really allow they to serve any places they can't already serve with existing A321s.
 
Brickell305
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:14 pm

seat1a wrote:
The Southwest Acquisition Speculation thread brought up the topic of JetBlue and it's A321 NEO's. My question is what would be the routes to deep South America with those jets? Would they fly them from FLL only, or MCO and JFK as well?

I'd think they'd stick to FLL and possibly MCO and they'd probably do well enough to Brazil (GRU/VCP, GIG). I don't think EZE or SCL would work well from FLL unless fares were dirt cheap. The other issue with deep South America is having to leave a plane on the ground all day. Legacies have shown a willingness to do that. Would B6?
 
jumbojet
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:33 pm

B6 doesnt have the right plane for deep south America. Not now and nothing in the B6 order books is the right plane. Whether or not the XLR can make it that far is irrelevant.
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:04 pm

jumbojet wrote:
B6 doesnt have the right plane for deep south America. Not now and nothing in the B6 order books is the right plane. Whether or not the XLR can make it that far is irrelevant.


Correct. Even if the A321 has a range, the market demographics aren’t there. You don’t fly a 160-180 seat A321 in these markets. It’s never going to work, and JetBlue won’t do it.

If JetBlue wants to try it’s hand out, needs widebodies.
a.
 
Bluewho
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:15 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
B6 doesnt have the right plane for deep south America. Not now and nothing in the B6 order books is the right plane. Whether or not the XLR can make it that far is irrelevant.


Correct. Even if the A321 has a range, the market demographics aren’t there. You don’t fly a 160-180 seat A321 in these markets. It’s never going to work, and JetBlue won’t do it.

If JetBlue wants to try it’s hand out, needs widebodies.


So if the XLR has the range and performance why would they need widebodies ?

How do the demographics change the need for a plane?

Honest question
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:24 pm

Bluewho wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
B6 doesnt have the right plane for deep south America. Not now and nothing in the B6 order books is the right plane. Whether or not the XLR can make it that far is irrelevant.


Correct. Even if the A321 has a range, the market demographics aren’t there. You don’t fly a 160-180 seat A321 in these markets. It’s never going to work, and JetBlue won’t do it.

If JetBlue wants to try it’s hand out, needs widebodies.


So if the XLR has the range and performance why would they need widebodies ?

How do the demographics change the need for a plane?

Honest question


These are dense, volume markets - you need big planes with lots of seats to effectively compete, or other airlines just capacity dump, fill the planes more profitably (or at a loss but less of a loss) and drive you out. The idea of a narrowbody on Florida-Sao Paulo is moronic. Will never work. JetBlue won’t fly anywhere in southern Brazil with a narrowbody. Maybe something in the north.

At least with London from the Northeast you have better plane utilization, frequency can be a more key selling point and there is a stronger proportion of business travel, but it’s still not going to be easy.
a.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:27 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Bluewho wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Correct. Even if the A321 has a range, the market demographics aren’t there. You don’t fly a 160-180 seat A321 in these markets. It’s never going to work, and JetBlue won’t do it.

If JetBlue wants to try it’s hand out, needs widebodies.


So if the XLR has the range and performance why would they need widebodies ?

How do the demographics change the need for a plane?

Honest question


These are dense, volume markets - you need big planes with lots of seats to effectively compete, or other airlines just capacity dump, fill the planes more profitably (or at a loss but less of a loss) and drive you out. The idea of a narrowbody on Florida-Sao Paulo is moronic. Will never work. JetBlue won’t fly anywhere in southern Brazil with a narrowbody. Maybe something in the north.

At least with London from the Northeast you have better plane utilization, frequency can be a more key selling point and there is a stronger proportion of business travel, but it’s still not going to be easy.


Wouldn’t the CASM be lower on a 160ish seat XLR vs a widebody?
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:30 pm

flyby519 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Bluewho wrote:

So if the XLR has the range and performance why would they need widebodies ?

How do the demographics change the need for a plane?

Honest question


These are dense, volume markets - you need big planes with lots of seats to effectively compete, or other airlines just capacity dump, fill the planes more profitably (or at a loss but less of a loss) and drive you out. The idea of a narrowbody on Florida-Sao Paulo is moronic. Will never work. JetBlue won’t fly anywhere in southern Brazil with a narrowbody. Maybe something in the north.

At least with London from the Northeast you have better plane utilization, frequency can be a more key selling point and there is a stronger proportion of business travel, but it’s still not going to be easy.


Wouldn’t the CASM be lower on a 160ish seat XLR vs a widebody?


No, that’s exactly why it’s stupid.
a.
 
MKIAZ
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:02 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
At least with London from the Northeast you have better plane utilization, frequency can be a more key selling point and there is a stronger proportion of business travel, but it’s still not going to be easy.


Couldn't the plane utilization be a benefit? Surely a 321XLR is much cheaper to buy/lease than a 77W. So having it sit all day down there would cost less...
 
Brickell305
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:04 pm

MKIAZ wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
At least with London from the Northeast you have better plane utilization, frequency can be a more key selling point and there is a stronger proportion of business travel, but it’s still not going to be easy.


Couldn't the plane utilization be a benefit? Surely a 321XLR is much cheaper to buy/lease than a 77W. So having it sit all day down there would cost less...

By that same logic, wouldn’t it also make less money on the flight back since it has less seats, smaller premium class (if any) so wouldn’t the additional revenue on a widebody not offset that?
 
Bluewho
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:15 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Bluewho wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Correct. Even if the A321 has a range, the market demographics aren’t there. You don’t fly a 160-180 seat A321 in these markets. It’s never going to work, and JetBlue won’t do it.

If JetBlue wants to try it’s hand out, needs widebodies.


So if the XLR has the range and performance why would they need widebodies ?

How do the demographics change the need for a plane?

Honest question


These are dense, volume markets - you need big planes with lots of seats to effectively compete, or other airlines just capacity dump, fill the planes more profitably (or at a loss but less of a loss) and drive you out. The idea of a narrowbody on Florida-Sao Paulo is moronic. Will never work. JetBlue won’t fly anywhere in southern Brazil with a narrowbody. Maybe something in the north.

At least with London from the Northeast you have better plane utilization, frequency can be a more key selling point and there is a stronger proportion of business travel, but it’s still not going to be easy.



Is it ever easy.
 
seat1a
Topic Author
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:22 pm

Thanks for the responses. Is there a viable market with the NEO to Manaus, Brasilia, or Fortaleza (or other East Cost Brazilian cities)?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:02 pm

These are just funny stuff. A321xlr has lower total cost per seat than 787-8 and a330neo according to leeham analysis. And they were comparing configuration with similar ratio of premium to economy cabin size. And I get to this thread and somehow it can't compete with wide-bodies.

If anything, history has shown that having fewer seat to fill and fleet simplicity wins over more seat to fill and fleet complexity.

For example, you will see on JFK gye, b6 with a321neo will drive off latam eventually. That's my prediction.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1578
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:16 pm

tphuang wrote:
These are just funny stuff. A321xlr has lower total cost per seat than 787-8 and a330neo according to leeham analysis. And they were comparing configuration with similar ratio of premium to economy cabin size. And I get to this thread and somehow it can't compete with wide-bodies.

If anything, history has shown that having fewer seat to fill and fleet simplicity wins over more seat to fill and fleet complexity.

For example, you will see on JFK gye, b6 with a321neo will drive off latam eventually. That's my prediction.


Right, that Leeham article is what I had in mind as well

https://leehamnews.com/2019/06/13/how-u ... lr-part-2/
 
dfwjim1
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:22 pm

As a side note the A321 does not have nearly the cargo capacity that wide bodies have so that is another factor to consider.
 
jumbojet
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:23 pm

tphuang wrote:
These are just funny stuff. A321xlr has lower total cost per seat than 787-8 and a330neo according to leeham analysis. And they were comparing configuration with similar ratio of premium to economy cabin size. And I get to this thread and somehow it can't compete with wide-bodies.

If anything, history has shown that having fewer seat to fill and fleet simplicity wins over more seat to fill and fleet complexity.

For example, you will see on JFK gye, b6 with a321neo will drive off latam eventually. That's my prediction.


so then by Leeham's logic and your logic, everyone should be flying the XLR? According to your own logic, alll B6 really needs is 1000 XLR's to effectively kill off every airline that flies the 787 and 333 neo? Its not that simple.
 
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chepos
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:24 pm

tphuang wrote:
These are just funny stuff. A321xlr has lower total cost per seat than 787-8 and a330neo according to leeham analysis. And they were comparing configuration with similar ratio of premium to economy cabin size. And I get to this thread and somehow it can't compete with wide-bodies.

If anything, history has shown that having fewer seat to fill and fleet simplicity wins over more seat to fill and fleet complexity.

For example, you will see on JFK gye, b6 with a321neo will drive off latam eventually. That's my prediction.


What????? B6 is going to drive LATAM out of JFK-GYE? Are you serious right now.

Yep, just as they drove everyone out of the US-MEX market, right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 280
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:25 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
As a side note the A321 does not have nearly the cargo capacity that wide bodies have so that is another factor to consider.

What percent of overall revenue does cargo account for? Not much... Also, cargo can offset/hedge against lower load factors. If you have smaller planes with lower seat counts and lower costs (on an overall, per flight, and per seat basis), that’s much less of an issue.
 
jumbojet
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:39 pm

To late to edit, but anyone with half a brain knows that it takes a lot more than just the 'right' sized airplane to make a route work. Just because you have, in this case, an XLR, doesnt necessarily mean the airline in question (and it can be any airline, not just B6) can make a route work. It takes more than just free snacks and free WIFI and honestly, not entirely sure B6's current business model would work in deep South America. The XLR doesnt automatically make it a winner.
 
Bluewho
Posts: 168
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:55 pm

jumbojet wrote:
tphuang wrote:
These are just funny stuff. A321xlr has lower total cost per seat than 787-8 and a330neo according to leeham analysis. And they were comparing configuration with similar ratio of premium to economy cabin size. And I get to this thread and somehow it can't compete with wide-bodies.

If anything, history has shown that having fewer seat to fill and fleet simplicity wins over more seat to fill and fleet complexity.

For example, you will see on JFK gye, b6 with a321neo will drive off latam eventually. That's my prediction.


so then by Leeham's logic and your logic, everyone should be flying the XLR? According to your own logic, alll B6 really needs is 1000 XLR's to effectively kill off every airline that flies the 787 and 333 neo? Its not that simple.




No the big guys already have invested and based things off a wide body. This is a possible possible challenge to that model.
Times change as well as planes that’s all. You are looking at jetblue entering a market that the big guys built with large aircraft but that was years and years ago. It might work it might not. I guess none of the big guys are getting or looking at 321lrs huh.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:56 pm

chepos wrote:
tphuang wrote:
These are just funny stuff. A321xlr has lower total cost per seat than 787-8 and a330neo according to leeham analysis. And they were comparing configuration with similar ratio of premium to economy cabin size. And I get to this thread and somehow it can't compete with wide-bodies.

If anything, history has shown that having fewer seat to fill and fleet simplicity wins over more seat to fill and fleet complexity.

For example, you will see on JFK gye, b6 with a321neo will drive off latam eventually. That's my prediction.


What????? B6 is going to drive LATAM out of JFK-GYE? Are you serious right now.

Yep, just as they drove everyone out of the US-MEX market, right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We will see what happens, but that's my prediction. B6 has been very successful in these primarily vfr markets out of JFK.
Last edited by tphuang on Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Bluewho
Posts: 168
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:56 pm

jumbojet wrote:
To late to edit, but anyone with half a brain knows that it takes a lot more than just the 'right' sized airplane to make a route work. Just because you have, in this case, an XLR, doesnt necessarily mean the airline in question (and it can be any airline, not just B6) can make a route work. It takes more than just free snacks and free WIFI and honestly, not entirely sure B6's current business model would work in deep South America. The XLR doesnt automatically make it a winner.



Well we will all see soon starting with over the pond. But yes I know coming from you it won’t work anywhere.
 
rg787
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:58 pm

If small planes were not effective to deep south america, we wouldn't have COPA's success, G3 flying do FL and many other examples.

It is true however, that competing in GRU and probably EZE is harder, since there is much more competition with much more seats. Either way, Brazil, Argentina and south america as a whole are not made only by GRU, EZE and SCL; if flying to other cities would fit B6's business model is another entirely different question.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5465
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:02 pm

jumbojet wrote:
tphuang wrote:
These are just funny stuff. A321xlr has lower total cost per seat than 787-8 and a330neo according to leeham analysis. And they were comparing configuration with similar ratio of premium to economy cabin size. And I get to this thread and somehow it can't compete with wide-bodies.

If anything, history has shown that having fewer seat to fill and fleet simplicity wins over more seat to fill and fleet complexity.

For example, you will see on JFK gye, b6 with a321neo will drive off latam eventually. That's my prediction.


so then by Leeham's logic and your logic, everyone should be flying the XLR? According to your own logic, alll B6 really needs is 1000 XLR's to effectively kill off every airline that flies the 787 and 333 neo? Its not that simple.


Well, aa just got 50 xlr, so clearly they had the same thoughts. We will see, but xlr doesn't work for everyone clearly. It works best for lccs that operate a321s primarily. That applies to not too many airlines looking to operate 8 hour flights.

DL could try xlr also, but it probably thinks single aisle aircraft can't afford the same premium cabin spacing as wide-bodies.

In fact, I would say a220xlr will be even more lethal. Moxy will have a huge advantage when they start operating long range flights with it.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:16 pm

seat1a wrote:
Is there a viable market with the NEO to Manaus, Brasilia, or Fortaleza (or other East Cost Brazilian cities)?


MIA/FLL-MAO is a pretty thin route, with AA less than daily in November and LATAM just 1x weekly. AA isn't even on MIA-FOR in November; LATAM is 5x. MIA-REC doesn't see AA; LATAM is just 2x.
 
indywa
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2007 1:25 am

Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:35 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Bluewho wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Correct. Even if the A321 has a range, the market demographics aren’t there. You don’t fly a 160-180 seat A321 in these markets. It’s never going to work, and JetBlue won’t do it.

If JetBlue wants to try it’s hand out, needs widebodies.


So if the XLR has the range and performance why would they need widebodies ?

How do the demographics change the need for a plane?

Honest question


These are dense, volume markets - you need big planes with lots of seats to effectively compete, or other airlines just capacity dump, fill the planes more profitably (or at a loss but less of a loss) and drive you out. The idea of a narrowbody on Florida-Sao Paulo is moronic. Will never work. JetBlue won’t fly anywhere in southern Brazil with a narrowbody. Maybe something in the north.

At least with London from the Northeast you have better plane utilization, frequency can be a more key selling point and there is a stronger proportion of business travel, but it’s still not going to be easy.



Somebody should probably go tell GOL that they are being moronic....
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26286
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:55 pm

indywa wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Bluewho wrote:

So if the XLR has the range and performance why would they need widebodies ?

How do the demographics change the need for a plane?

Honest question


These are dense, volume markets - you need big planes with lots of seats to effectively compete, or other airlines just capacity dump, fill the planes more profitably (or at a loss but less of a loss) and drive you out. The idea of a narrowbody on Florida-Sao Paulo is moronic. Will never work. JetBlue won’t fly anywhere in southern Brazil with a narrowbody. Maybe something in the north.

At least with London from the Northeast you have better plane utilization, frequency can be a more key selling point and there is a stronger proportion of business travel, but it’s still not going to be easy.



Somebody should probably go tell GOL that they are being moronic....


No need. GOL does not fly from Florida to southern Brazil. They fly to northern and central Brazil, which is a totally different market, and one where jetBlue might venture. That said, GOL isn't exactly doing well to Florida...schedules constantly changing, flights constantly being suspended. The first time didn't work out, and not sure this second attempt will either.
a.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26286
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:57 pm

rg787 wrote:
If small planes were not effective to deep south america, we wouldn't have COPA's success, G3 flying do FL and many other examples.


Panama City is not analogous. First of all, PTY is centrally locate din the continent. Secondly, there's no competition.

GOL's operation is not analogous. GOL flies to Florida from northern and central Brazil. It does not have operations to deep South America from Miami or Orlando.
a.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1578
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Deep South America Route Question

Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:17 am

Is the obvious answer that B6 will partner with AD and fly to their focus cities? Maybe add some frequency where AD can't manage a daily widebody?

https://www.voeazul.com.br/en/about-azul/route-map

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