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747megatop
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:38 pm

tullamarine wrote:
You can't help thinking this is more an effort to ramp up the pressure on Boeing to get MAX sorted sooner rather than later. I still can't imagine them moving away from their all-737 fleet.

They will move away from an all-737 fleet. The 737 MAX fiasco has made Southwest realize that they can't have all eggs(planes) in one basket(Manufacturer). Also, Boeing doesn't have another type that is equivalent of the 737.
 
bob75013
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:42 pm

747megatop wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
You can't help thinking this is more an effort to ramp up the pressure on Boeing to get MAX sorted sooner rather than later. I still can't imagine them moving away from their all-737 fleet.

They will move away from an all-737 fleet. The 737 MAX fiasco has made Southwest realize that they can't have all eggs(planes) in one basket(Manufacturer). Also, Boeing doesn't have another type that is equivalent of the 737.


Did WN's earnings report help you come to that conclusion?
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:45 pm

Even though I feel like this is a bluff, the only aircraft I could see them being interested in is the A321NEO. How many seats would an A220-300 have compared to their 7M3?
@DadCelo
 
DarthLobster
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:09 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
DarthLobster wrote:
FFS. By the time the wings would be attached to the first fuselage barrel of whatever, they'll be 100+ richer in MAXes. This is just WN waving their corporate sausage at Boeing and demanding freebies.


You really think they'll receive 100 MAX before they could receive a220?


Do you know how many MAXes they have on order? How many are sitting in the desert awaiting delivery? That aside, unless you have a boneyard full of operable aircraft (which, ironically, WN does), you’re not going to be able to onboard a new aircraft type from a new manufacturer quickly. This move by WN is pure posturing to get a discount from Boeing for what will eventually be the replacement for the older NGs and their ill-advised expansion in the Pacific.

The point is, no matter what becomes of the MAX debacle, it will be well over by the time WN could onboard anything new. It basically is the same as some schmuck in the White House saying they’re going to consider making the new Air Force One an A380 just to drive 747-8 bids down.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:23 pm

Only Boeing's MAX line and Airbus A32Xneo lines have been scaled to deliver meaningful capacity to a carrier the size of WN. How long would it take to deliver 150 A220s? A decade?
Airbus' announced ambition (~2025, Mirabel + Mobile) is 14/month. WN already rejected a subfleet of 88 aircraft - those were the 717s than WN paid ~$160 million to go away. Thirty A220s within 3-4 years would be trivial to WN - far from being worth the pilot training, schedule complications and parts inventories.
 
reltney
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:28 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
par13del wrote:
slider wrote:
Precisely. WN drove the demand for commonality to a ridiculous degree...it curtailed important avionics and cockpit upgrades Boeing wanted to do but didn't. Something even as arcane as the design for the L1 door...that rotating OJI-inducing outdated design remained thanks to Southwest.

Remind us again what percentage of the NG fleet produced and sold by Boeing are operated by WN, after a review let's discuss who really is at fault here, especially when the operators of the thousands of NG's not used by Boeing talk about customer service and support.

I think the real question is whether the size of the WN purchase or promised purchased was enough to have some customization just for WN without "suffering" the rest of the world?
Perhaps the rest of the world were too content?

Remind us again, who is the world's largest operator of the 737NG? WN.
Remind us again, who is the launch customer for the 737NG? WN
Remind us again, who is the world's largest operator of the 737 as a whole? WN.

Even if WN operates "only" 10% of the 737NGs (and that's a huge feat) and 50% of the 73Gs produced, they're still the #1 operator of the 737NG and could, single-handedly, put a huge dent into the whole program.



It’s not an argument, it’s true.

SW is truly the biggest reason Boeing is in the hole by stretching and modifying an obsolete design. The cockpit change alone to keep the 737 as in common with the 200/300 disallowed the common type rating which drove training cost at the other airlines. Airbus took advantage and moved ahead with the common cockpit. AWSTin mid 2000s drove the point home. Not a crime, it just at the time SW had money and others didn’t. Boeing is suffering and stuck with getting the max online instead of 797 and the early closing of the 757 line, a far superior airframe as we all know.

Cheers
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MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:30 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
Even though I feel like this is a bluff, the only aircraft I could see them being interested in is the A321NEO. How many seats would an A220-300 have compared to their 7M3?


I would guess a 223 could have about 142 seats in a single-class WN config, based on Delta's stated count of F Y+ Y of 130. I expect a WN 7M3 would have 150.
 
Phoenix757767
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:32 pm

Southwest Max’s hold 175.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:37 pm

tullamarine wrote:
You can't help thinking this is more an effort to ramp up the pressure on Boeing to get MAX sorted sooner rather than later. I still can't imagine them moving away from their all-737 fleet.


These aren't ordinary times! Never before has Southwest had to ground its aircraft due to the FAA pulling its type certificate. Even when the 737 MAX is recertified, it will take months to update all the the existing MAX aircraft in their fleet plus the undelivered ones in storage. The MAX debacle has cost Southwest and its pilots at least tens of millions of dollars.

Southwest seriously should consider cancelling their 737-7 MAX order. The A220 series already has shown that it has that part of the market covered with a more efficient plane. Southwest could potentially use the 100 and 300 models now.
Last edited by flyingclrs727 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jimbo737
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:40 pm

It would be an act of collective incompetence for the BoD to NOT "permit" SWA's management group to explore air frame options in the past, today and or in the future.

It makes for a good headline, but reality is the BoD would never have never forbidden SWA management from exploring air frame options from any other supplier. It would be sheer idiocy to do so.

Nothing new here, folks.
 
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spinotter
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:43 pm

d8s wrote:
vulindlela744 wrote:
The CEO of Southwest was given the green light by the Board of Directors of Southwest to look at other aircraft as the MAX grounding drags on. Article from today’s Chicago Tribune https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... utType=amp


Why haven't they brought some of the 737 classics out of the desert? I understand they can't fly the classic, NG, and Max at the same time but if no Max are flying it shouldn't be an issue.


Why not the classic, NG, and MAX at the same time? Is it a matter of how many type certificates pilots are allowed to hold simultaneously?
 
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william
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:48 pm

keesje wrote:
Slowly reality is sinking in.

Just one thing is worse than leaving the sole 737 fleet strategy, that is sticking with it.

Image
Source photo: https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/05/07/luchtvaartramp-boeing-zweeg-over-ontbreken-van-waarschuwingssysteem-in-737-max-a3959328


Ah, yes, the Anet motto-

One fleet strategy with Airbus good.

One fleet strategy with Boeing bad.
 
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barney captain
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:02 pm

spinotter wrote:
d8s wrote:
vulindlela744 wrote:
The CEO of Southwest was given the green light by the Board of Directors of Southwest to look at other aircraft as the MAX grounding drags on. Article from today’s Chicago Tribune https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... utType=amp


Why haven't they brought some of the 737 classics out of the desert? I understand they can't fly the classic, NG, and Max at the same time but if no Max are flying it shouldn't be an issue.


Why not the classic, NG, and MAX at the same time? Is it a matter of how many type certificates pilots are allowed to hold simultaneously?



They are all the same type rating, but the FAA won't allow crossed-utilized crews on all variants.

Classic and NG or NG and MAX, but not all three.
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barney captain
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:13 pm

reltney wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
par13del wrote:
Remind us again what percentage of the NG fleet produced and sold by Boeing are operated by WN, after a review let's discuss who really is at fault here, especially when the operators of the thousands of NG's not used by Boeing talk about customer service and support.

I think the real question is whether the size of the WN purchase or promised purchased was enough to have some customization just for WN without "suffering" the rest of the world?
Perhaps the rest of the world were too content?

Remind us again, who is the world's largest operator of the 737NG? WN.
Remind us again, who is the launch customer for the 737NG? WN
Remind us again, who is the world's largest operator of the 737 as a whole? WN.

Even if WN operates "only" 10% of the 737NGs (and that's a huge feat) and 50% of the 73Gs produced, they're still the #1 operator of the 737NG and could, single-handedly, put a huge dent into the whole program.



It’s not an argument, it’s true.

SW is truly the biggest reason Boeing is in the hole by stretching and modifying an obsolete design. The cockpit change alone to keep the 737 as in common with the 200/300 disallowed the common type rating which drove training cost at the other airlines. Airbus took advantage and moved ahead with the common cockpit. AWSTin mid 2000s drove the point home. Not a crime, it just at the time SW had money and others didn’t. Boeing is suffering and stuck with getting the max online instead of 797 and the early closing of the 757 line, a far superior airframe as we all know.

Cheers


Boeing builds airplanes to sell to the GLOBAL market - a much bigger market than WN.

Did WN have input on the 737 and it's variants? Absolutely, as did all potential customers.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
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barney captain
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:15 pm

william wrote:
keesje wrote:
Slowly reality is sinking in.

Just one thing is worse than leaving the sole 737 fleet strategy, that is sticking with it.

Image
Source photo: https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/05/07/luchtvaartramp-boeing-zweeg-over-ontbreken-van-waarschuwingssysteem-in-737-max-a3959328


Ah, yes, the Anet motto-

One fleet strategy with Airbus good.

One fleet strategy with Boeing bad.


Touche'
Southeast Of Disorder
 
Checklist787
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:34 pm

william wrote:
keesje wrote:
Slowly reality is sinking in.

Just one thing is worse than leaving the sole 737 fleet strategy, that is sticking with it.

Image
Source photo: https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/05/07/luchtvaartramp-boeing-zweeg-over-ontbreken-van-waarschuwingssysteem-in-737-max-a3959328


Ah, yes, the Anet motto-

One fleet strategy with Airbus good.

One fleet strategy with Boeing bad.


This is an article from last May.

The 737MAX sees the end of the tunnel. It should fly very soon and EASA estimates next January (2020) to STOP the grounding! :roll:
Last edited by Checklist787 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:55 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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BravoOne
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:44 pm

There were several SWA pilots present for extended periods at the Boeing facilities prior to the first flight. One can't help but wonder how they were briefed on the functionality of MCAS, or were they simply left out of the information loop?
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:56 pm

barney captain wrote:
reltney wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Remind us again, who is the world's largest operator of the 737NG? WN.
Remind us again, who is the launch customer for the 737NG? WN
Remind us again, who is the world's largest operator of the 737 as a whole? WN.

Even if WN operates "only" 10% of the 737NGs (and that's a huge feat) and 50% of the 73Gs produced, they're still the #1 operator of the 737NG and could, single-handedly, put a huge dent into the whole program.



It’s not an argument, it’s true.

SW is truly the biggest reason Boeing is in the hole by stretching and modifying an obsolete design. The cockpit change alone to keep the 737 as in common with the 200/300 disallowed the common type rating which drove training cost at the other airlines. Airbus took advantage and moved ahead with the common cockpit. AWSTin mid 2000s drove the point home. Not a crime, it just at the time SW had money and others didn’t. Boeing is suffering and stuck with getting the max online instead of 797 and the early closing of the 757 line, a far superior airframe as we all know.

Cheers


Boeing builds airplanes to sell to the GLOBAL market - a much bigger market than WN.

Did WN have input on the 737 and it's variants? Absolutely, as did all potential customers.

Of course Boeing listened to all potential customers, even the ones who never bought or have no real intention of buying their product; but when a single customer swallows a whole 10% of your best selling product, you will put more value to what that customer says.
 
KarlB737
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:03 pm

747megatop wrote:
Boeing doesn't have another type that is equivalent of the 737.


And the fault lies where? They kept updating and modifying this thing until they got reckless with it. As I stated in another thread what is clearly needed is a clean sheet on a table to create a brand new aircraft that completely replaces the over-modified 737 period.
 
metroline2006
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:07 pm

Loyalty is nothing to the aviation sector. The airlines are run by accountants if Southwest or any other airline can get a better deal and more profitable numbers the deal will be done. This about loyalty is rubbish airlines have long since been run on romance. And most are forgetting another issue the travelling pubic with the Max branding being hauled through the mud consumer confidence is another reason
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:36 pm

tullamarine wrote:
You can't help thinking this is more an effort to ramp up the pressure on Boeing to get MAX sorted sooner rather than later. I still can't imagine them moving away from their all-737 fleet.

Right now, it's the FAA that has yet to put a recertification date. If we're to believe that Boeing has finished the MCAS fixes (or is putting final touches on it), then it's out of Boeing's hands when it gets recertified.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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Revelation
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:44 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
The A220 series already has shown that it has that part of the market covered with a more efficient plane.

They've also had a lot of GTF engine snags and... their first grounding.

Ref: https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 57816.html

A220 sized aircraft makes no sense for WN's business model.

They fly with costly labor to costly airports.

Flying less pax per trip makes the math worse rather than better.

Adding a second fleet type makes the math worse rather than better.

WN knows this, they are just posturing to get more compensation from Boeing.

Good for them, they should grab whatever cash they can get from Boeing after their colossal tragic screw up.
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texl1649
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:54 pm

They could, also, be pressing for the NMA project to not be cancelled, as has been rumored in the McAllister/Deal exec shuffles so far. Surely any new/next Boeing CEO would want to be fully on board with a future product plan.

Also, the Max is as much due to SWA influence as anything else. Absent SWA, and Airbus/EU, we'd definitely already have a new Boeing narrowbody by now.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
The A220 series already has shown that it has that part of the market covered with a more efficient plane.

They've also had a lot of GTF engine snags and... their first grounding.

Ref: https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 57816.html

A220 sized aircraft makes no sense for WN's business model.

They fly with costly labor to costly airports.

Flying less pax per trip makes the math worse rather than better.

Adding a second fleet type makes the math worse rather than better.

WN knows this, they are just posturing to get more compensation from Boeing.

Good for them, they should grab whatever cash they can get from Boeing after their colossal tragic screw up.


Red herring. Swiss grounded their planes, a regulatory authority didn't ground the planes. Over 300 peole died on Max's.....no crashes on the CSeries/A220. I call foul.

Southwest doesn't need to posture to Boeing. Boeing will do most anything to keep them happy, if the past is any indication.
Last edited by SteelChair on Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:22 pm

So many mountains being made of this one molehill.

Of course WN management is going to look at other types. They are running one of the world's largest airlines. It would be dereliction of their duties not to study everything in the market. This is not even necessarily a signal to Boeing. It's just reasonable business.

But all the looking in the world doesn't change the business reality, which is that (a) a smaller type is going to be difficult to operate profitably and (b) it is going to add a whole lot of near-term expense, for attenuated benefit, to add another type of the same size (i.e., A320neo/A321neo). And Airbus has no incentive to cut anyone aggressive deals on A320neos at the moment with their backlog the way it is.

So assuming that the MAX returns to service uneventfully sometime within the next 4-5 months I can't imagine a near-term decision to buy from Airbus.
 
morrisond
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:32 pm

I think they are just lining themselves up for a Mega Deal for MAX on RTS like IAG.

They still have 450+ NG's that will eventually need replacement plus growth.

What better time than RTS to get the best deal you possibly can.

Boeing will drop there pants to get a huge Marquee order from SouthWest at a huge discount to compensate for MAX losses - they would much rather do that than pay out cash so the pain is spread out over a decade or so.

I think we might see 1,000+ orders for MAX from all carriers in the 12 months after return to service, mainly as a result of Boeing cutting really good deals as compensation.
Last edited by morrisond on Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:37 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
The thought that an airlines can diversify their way out of the risk of a rare grounding is foolish. Even if WN bought a second type and was split 50/50, losing half the fleet is catastrophic.


Rare? In the last six years there have been two major groundings of Boeing aircraft. Not only that, but the engine issues on the 787 and A320NEO have resulted in partial groundings.

WN is an enormous airline with 750 aircraft. This is such a huge fleet that they are way beyond any economy of scale. They could easily introduce a second or even a third type and still have enormous enough fleets to benefit from economies of scale.

WN put all their eggs in one basket and now they are suffering for it. And if these pickle fork issues on the NG turn into something, WN could wind up having to ground an enormous portion of their fleet. They have every reason to start to consider that maybe having an airline that big with that much risk exposure based on a single type is not a great idea.

seabosdca wrote:
And Airbus has no incentive to cut anyone aggressive deals on A320neos at the moment with their backlog the way it is.


For Airbus to break into one of the largest all-Boeing operators in the world (gosh, if not *the* largest) they have no incentive? They have a *huge* incentive.
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Sancho99504
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:47 pm

BravoOne wrote:
There were several SWA pilots present for extended periods at the Boeing facilities prior to the first flight. One can't help but wonder how they were briefed on the functionality of MCAS, or were they simply left out of the information loop?

Didn't SWAPA sue Boeing for not notifying or making pilots and mechanics about MCAS? My guess would be that Boeing didn't say a single word about it.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
airzona11
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:51 pm

If this was the first time the Board had "given the greenlight" to look at other aircraft, they would not be on the board.

keesje wrote:
Slowly reality is sinking in.

Just one thing is worse than leaving the sole 737 fleet strategy, that is sticking with it.

Image
Source photo: https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/05/07/luchtvaartramp-boeing-zweeg-over-ontbreken-van-waarschuwingssysteem-in-737-max-a3959328


Utter nonsense. Name a more successful airline than Southwest. Their financials do not back up your insinuation that a negative reality is sinking in. They just have put out statements after a profitable quarter stating their plans to onboard them back into service at a rapid pace. To think WN has blindly followed a single type fleet is comical detracts from reality.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:02 pm

seabosdca wrote:


But all the looking in the world doesn't change the business reality, which is that (a) a smaller type is going to be difficult to operate profitably and (b) it is going to add a whole lot of near-term expense, for attenuated benefit, to add another type of the same size (i.e., A320neo/A321neo).


How does DL or other major airlines run mix fleets of 738/A320 while achieving great cost management figures?


Fleet diversity can be a good thing for many reasons, and fleet simplification by itself isn’t a target a company should achieve. It’s just a tool that could work, but you could achieve the same results without it in some cases.
 
N766UA
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:10 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
par13del wrote:
slider wrote:
Precisely. WN drove the demand for commonality to a ridiculous degree...it curtailed important avionics and cockpit upgrades Boeing wanted to do but didn't. Something even as arcane as the design for the L1 door...that rotating OJI-inducing outdated design remained thanks to Southwest.

Remind us again what percentage of the NG fleet produced and sold by Boeing are operated by WN, after a review let's discuss who really is at fault here, especially when the operators of the thousands of NG's not used by Boeing talk about customer service and support.

I think the real question is whether the size of the WN purchase or promised purchased was enough to have some customization just for WN without "suffering" the rest of the world?
Perhaps the rest of the world were too content?

Remind us again, who is the world's largest operator of the 737NG? WN.
Remind us again, who is the launch customer for the 737NG? WN
Remind us again, who is the world's largest operator of the 737 as a whole? WN.

Even if WN operates "only" 10% of the 737NGs (and that's a huge feat) and 50% of the 73Gs produced, they're still the #1 operator of the 737NG and could, single-handedly, put a huge dent into the whole program.


If SWA is so locked to Boeing’s teat that this is “obviously a ploy,” then why would re-designing a door or overhead switch matter to them? If Boeing can literally kill hundreds of people with their negligence and SWA will *still* OBVIOUSLY only buy their products, then why would they cave on a switch?
 
ukoverlander
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:14 pm

Time for both Boeing AND Southwest to move on from the 737. The MAX debacle must be the final act. No doubt it will return to service and fly again but there should be further 'warmed over', NEO'd MAX's in the future. It's time to design something new and fit for purpose. Enough is enough already.
Last edited by ukoverlander on Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ODwyerPW
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:16 pm

at 32" pitch, A220-300 seats about 142 (Or 28 rows of 3 seats on one side, 29 rows of 2 seats on the other side). compare that to current 73g at 31" pitch seats 143. Apples to Apples.

Max7 will seat 150.... 8 seats more than an A220-300. If that is super important to WN, could Airbus do a limited simple A220-350 stretch, add a plug before the wing and after the wing... and have 30 rows of 5 abreast? same 150pax, same 32" pitch, same 3 flight attendants, lower fuel burn than Max7, lower landing costs than Max7, only 1 middle seat per row... What if the acquisition costs could be similar as well.... on say 100 or 200 units? Would it's hot/high or short runway performance be compromised significantly against the Max7?

Granted, Airbus would be really killing off the A319NEO with such a small stretch of the A220, but it's only seeing tiny sales anyway... But an opportunity to turn a major compeitor's #1 customer, that opportunity doesn't present itself everyday...

I'm just talking 700/7 substitution ... not suggesting anything change with 800/8 situation.. (That would be up to Airbus to bait them later with an A320.5 stretch or A220-500 ... just kidding about that!.... they'd never totally leave Boeing as that would defeat the whole fleet diversification exercise).

I defended the A319NEO purchase by Spirit, likewise I appreciate that their is a place for the MAX7 on WN Routes. However, Spirit is not locked into a grounded subfleet. WN is...

just playing devil's advocate here.... What if the Texas company was curious to see what was being built over in Alabama? Why wouldn't you do an RFP?

How different would the CASM be between the above proposed A220-350 (150pax) and a MAX8 (175pax)?
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Adipocere
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:19 pm

A lot of discussion has focused on how this could be a WN negotiating ploy to get a better deal out of BA. But what if the company triple dog dares WN to go with Airbus and destroy its own much talked about business model of running only one type? Will WN be able to blink and pull it off?? Is it BA or WN that has the other by the family jewels? This will make an interesting business school case study someday.
 
Alias1024
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:21 pm

seabosdca wrote:

But all the looking in the world doesn't change the business reality, which is that (a) a smaller type is going to be difficult to operate profitably and (b) it is going to add a whole lot of near-term expense, for attenuated benefit, to add another type of the same size (i.e., A320neo/A321neo).


Why does it have to be a smaller type or an A320?

A220-300 is a straight 737-700 replacement. While WN may wish to upgrade some of that fleet as it is replaced, there’s likely still a role going forward for an aircraft just under 150 seats, and the MAX7 just seems like way too much plane. A reasonable future WN fleet might be a couple hundred A223, and 737 variants (800, MAX8/9/10) at 175+ seats being the majority of the fleet.

Edit: I see I wasn’t the only one thinking along these lines as I wrote my post.
Last edited by Alias1024 on Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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seabosdca
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:41 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
Why does it have to be a smaller type or an A320?

A220-300 is a straight 737-700 replacement. While WN may wish to upgrade some of that fleet as it is replaced, there’s likely still a role going forward for an aircraft just under 150 seats, and the MAX7 just seems like way too much plane. A reasonable future WN fleet might be a couple hundred A223, and 737 variants (800, MAX8/9/10) at 175+ seats being the majority of the fleet.


I don't think the WN business model is going to be sustainable with that size of plane in the future. I think the WN fleet of the future starts with the 737-800 and MAX 8 and goes up to the MAX 10 (or A321neo?).
 
Chemist
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:44 pm

Having two types in your fleet means twice the chance that one of them is grounded you know.
 
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barney captain
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:49 pm

"Southwest always had a lot to say about projected modifications to the 737, and Kelleher’s team mostly wanted as few technical modifications as possible. With the MAX, they upped the ante: According to Rick Ludtke, a former Boeing employee, Boeing agreed to rebate Southwest $1 million for every MAX it bought, if the FAA required level-D simulator training for the carrier’s pilots."

And? Notwithstanding the fact that "Kelleher's team" didn't even exist for the MAX development (Kelly had long since taken over), I see nowhere in that piece where WN insisted on anything wrt the MAX. Boeing made a business agreement to offset WN for additional training (if required). When industry discounts on new aircraft are often approaching 40% of list price, a one million dollar a unit offset is a statistical zero.

And how, pray tell, was Boeing going to sell aircraft to anyone that required time in a level-D sim, when those sims wouldn't even be available for months and years after it's release?

They couldn't.

Blame Big Bad WN all you want, these were business decisions that drove the MAX to not require sim training. Just like the NG - and that was a MUCH bigger jump in technology.
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BravoOne
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:12 pm

Sancho99504 wrote:
BravoOne wrote:
There were several SWA pilots present for extended periods at the Boeing facilities prior to the first flight. One can't help but wonder how they were briefed on the functionality of MCAS, or were they simply left out of the information loop?

Didn't SWAPA sue Boeing for not notifying or making pilots and mechanics about MCAS? My guess would be that Boeing didn't say a single word about it.


I really find it hard to believe that the experienced SWA technical pilots were totally unaware, but who knows?
 
737MAX7
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:23 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
Even though I feel like this is a bluff, the only aircraft I could see them being interested in is the A321NEO. How many seats would an A220-300 have compared to their 7M3?


I would guess a 223 could have about 142 seats in a single-class WN config, based on Delta's stated count of F Y+ Y of 130. I expect a WN 7M3 would have 150.

MAX 7 for us at WN is confirmed at 150 seats
 
737MAX7
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:28 pm

spinotter wrote:
d8s wrote:
vulindlela744 wrote:
The CEO of Southwest was given the green light by the Board of Directors of Southwest to look at other aircraft as the MAX grounding drags on. Article from today’s Chicago Tribune https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... utType=amp


Why haven't they brought some of the 737 classics out of the desert? I understand they can't fly the classic, NG, and Max at the same time but if no Max are flying it shouldn't be an issue.


Why not the classic, NG, and MAX at the same time? Is it a matter of how many type certificates pilots are allowed to hold simultaneously?


Correct, FAA said said pilots could fly the Classic and NG or the NG and MAX but not all 3.
 
ODwyerPW
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:56 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I don't think the WN business model is going to be sustainable with that size of plane in the future. I think the WN fleet of the future starts with the 737-800 and MAX 8 and goes up to the MAX 10 (or A321neo?).


So you think every Route that is serviced by a plane that holds 137-143pax is suddenly going to support 175pax just because you put bigger planes on it? You only have to go back a decade and Boeing was still flying planes that topped out at 122pax.

As of September of this year, 2019, SouthWest had 510 73G's in service. Let me repeat that.... 510 examples sized where most of you all are convinced they can't be sustainable flying... I know they are taking basically 800/MAX8 moving forward.... but still.... 510 planes that seat 137-143pax... Why wouldn't Airbus see if they can do something with the A220-3XX to bait WN? All 510 planes will be replaced by couterparts that seat 32-38 more seats? What if you cannot fill the seats after upgauging? You have a sizeable fleet that flies around at 78% capacity, with your cabin crew budget 33% higher than it needs to be? Or do you let economies of scale work in your favor and have a modern, optimized 200 plane subfleet?
learning never stops.
 
airplaneboy
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:15 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:


But all the looking in the world doesn't change the business reality, which is that (a) a smaller type is going to be difficult to operate profitably and (b) it is going to add a whole lot of near-term expense, for attenuated benefit, to add another type of the same size (i.e., A320neo/A321neo).


How does DL or other major airlines run mix fleets of 738/A320 while achieving great cost management figures?


Fleet diversity can be a good thing for many reasons, and fleet simplification by itself isn’t a target a company should achieve. It’s just a tool that could work, but you could achieve the same results without it in some cases.



The Big 3 US carriers have a hub and spoke network that relies heavily/predominantly on connecting passenger flows. Their business model is high cost as evidenced by higher average fares. They also have a first/business class product in which the premiums they derive more than offsets the cost of having multiple fleet types of the same gauge. This is how an airline like Delta can operate 11 daily departures between Atlanta and Savannah, Georgia on mainline equipment- even though the local market alone between these two cities couldn’t profitably justify this amount of service.

Although WN carries more connecting passengers than they have in years past- they still have a network that is primarily driven by O & D traffic, and is still largely point to point. They operate many focus cities with service to destinations with the highest demand. WN seems to be in the middle of the pack in terms of not being a ULCC that can charge $29 fares (like NK or F9), yet they can’t command the type of premiums like the Big 3 due to the lack of having a first/business class product. Adding another fleet type would create operating complexities and increase costs- which for an airline like WN whose unprecedented and historical levels of profitability have always been centered on their simplicity and operating a single fleet type, could potentially put them at a disadvantage. If WN were to acquire B6, they would by default inherit an Airbus fleet (and new aircraft orders and delivery slots) that is already large enough to create economies of scale. BUT- if they were to simply acquire narrow body Airbus aircraft organically, they’d have to deal with acquisition and training costs associated with adding another fleet type to their certificate. Not to mention, they would have to wait years before being able to take delivery of a meaningful number of Airbus units quickly enough to create the efficiency of economies of scale due to the already large backlog of Airbus orders.
 
jbmitt
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:19 pm

Chemist wrote:
Having two types in your fleet means twice the chance that one of them is grounded you know.


..but the odds of the entire fleet being grounded would be half right?
 
Chemist
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:45 pm

jbmitt wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Having two types in your fleet means twice the chance that one of them is grounded you know.


..but the odds of the entire fleet being grounded would be half right?


Yes, but half a grounded fleet is still a disaster.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:00 pm

airplaneboy wrote:
Although WN carries more connecting passengers than they have in years past- they still have a network that is primarily driven by O & D traffic, and is still largely point to point. They operate many focus cities with service to destinations with the highest demand. WN seems to be in the middle of the pack in terms of not being a ULCC that can charge $29 fares (like NK or F9), yet they can’t command the type of premiums like the Big 3 due to the lack of having a first/business class product. Adding another fleet type would create operating complexities and increase costs- which for an airline like WN whose unprecedented and historical levels of profitability have always been centered on their simplicity and operating a single fleet type, could potentially put them at a disadvantage. If WN were to acquire B6, they would by default inherit an Airbus fleet (and new aircraft orders and delivery slots) that is already large enough to create economies of scale. BUT- if they were to simply acquire narrow body Airbus aircraft organically, they’d have to deal with acquisition and training costs associated with adding another fleet type to their certificate. Not to mention, they would have to wait years before being able to take delivery of a meaningful number of Airbus units quickly enough to create the efficiency of economies of scale due to the already large backlog of Airbus orders.


There are a few examples of LCC's who had operated both Boeing and Airbus planes in the past, including the following:
  • G4 had previously operated Boeing 757 and McDonnell Douglas MD-80 planes in addition to Airbus A319 and Airbus A320 planes, but G4 now only operates Airbus A319 and Airbus A320 aircraft.
  • F9 used to operate Boeing 737-200 and 737-700 planes in addition to the Airbus A319, but F9 did get rid of its last Boeing 737's in 2006.
  • U2 had previously operated the Boeing 737-700 in addition to the Airbus A319, but U2 got rid of its last Boeing 737's in 2011.
 
gokmengs
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:17 pm

Revelation wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
You can't help thinking this is more an effort to ramp up the pressure on Boeing to get MAX sorted sooner rather than later. I still can't imagine them moving away from their all-737 fleet.

Yes, this is just posturing.

WN and FR and AA and AS see that Boeing put aside $5B to pay for MAX problems and they all want to get as big a slice of that pie as they can.

It makes no sense for WN to buy smaller planes.

Unlike the old days, they have a relatively high labor cost and they fly to relatively expensive airports.

Buying planes that take less pax per trip is nonsensical.

They tried that with the ex-Airtran 717s and they could not make it work then and it'd be worse now.

WN is more likely to end up with MAX10 rather than A220, IMO.

Boeing will use discounts on future MAXes to pay for losses due to the MAX grounding.

Heck, they are flying the 737-800 to outposts such as MHT so it's clear they can support larger aircraft.


I would like to copy my post from the WN earnings thread, and add that if one can be an anut without a bias they can see the obvious truth.

gokmengs wrote:
Revelation wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
No no no haven't your heard WN has a horrible business model,since Herb Has passed and now the Max their on a express train to Chapter 7.

Yep, and the only way to save the airline is to take in Airbus A220s so WN can fly smaller planes to smaller cities with less wealthy customers while still needing the same number of crew members to operate the planes and needing a whole new set of mechanics, spare parts, training, etc.

I don’t think anyone can doubt the marvelous job WN did with its strategy of being a single type carrier, yet noT everyone is a A or B fanatic and we can’t say for a fact that the idea of a second type -be it A220 or E2- won’t open up a huge window of opportunity. It’s something to be discussed and to think about and if any high level exec for WN is that stubborn they are doing their employer a disservice by not considering or projecting about it. Good job as always WN.


Now lets think again after Boeing and Embraer link up, if you are WN management and you avoided all the markets you can open up with a smaller more efficient aircraft and now its being sold by the one supplier you are married to would you not be tempted to pull the trigger? After you realized you are so vulnerable with being a single type carrier during the Max debacle you will still ignore that you can hedge your future while opening up new markets? I think you would be a fool not to pull the trigger. I like the 220 and I would love to see it in WN’s colors but I would say the second type is coming soon to the WN fleet in the E2 form.
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Sancho99504
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:46 pm

BravoOne wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
BravoOne wrote:
There were several SWA pilots present for extended periods at the Boeing facilities prior to the first flight. One can't help but wonder how they were briefed on the functionality of MCAS, or were they simply left out of the information loop?

Didn't SWAPA sue Boeing for not notifying or making pilots and mechanics about MCAS? My guess would be that Boeing didn't say a single word about it.


I really find it hard to believe that the experienced SWA technical pilots were totally unaware, but who knows?


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1WM290



I'm as curious about it as you are. The article is a little vague on the scope of what Boeing told SWAPA.
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BravoOne
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:58 pm

I'm not curious at all, but one has to imagine that if SWA had pilots on site at Boeing they were familiar with the CSID regarding 737 flight controls. Crew Systems Interface Document, references the MCAS, so it was not hidden.

Again there is so much mis information in this thread it makes one wonder.....
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:12 am

ODwyerPW wrote:
So you think every Route that is serviced by a plane that holds 137-143pax is suddenly going to support 175pax just because you put bigger planes on it? You only have to go back a decade and Boeing was still flying planes that topped out at 122pax.


No, I think WN is going to have to rationalize its route network, increasing frequency and/or upgauging on some routes and dropping those that can't support a larger gauge even at low frequency. The unit cost of a 143-seat aircraft is just not going to be competitive.

All 510 planes will be replaced by couterparts that seat 32-38 more seats?


Eventually, yes, if they want to keep their current business model. The alternative is that they go to a more legacy-style hub and spoke model, and rely expressly on connections to keep small stations going. P2P with small aircraft is just not going to compete with the legacies.

What if you cannot fill the seats after upgauging?


Then you drop the route and use the asset to reinforce your core network.

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