UWPAviation wrote:

With the ways things keep going for the MAX, maybe we see it back in service by the fall? If not in service until 2021, why not look at other options.

Southwest is dead in the water, unable to grow and having to shuffle passengers around on a regular interval to make the flying work. They have all kinds of pressure from the bottom with a serious new contender coming along with a better hard product. If they don't get their Max back before the end of the year it may get ugly.

South West Airlines Airbus A320NEO / A321NEO

dc10lover wrote:

South West Airlines Airbus A320NEO / A321NEO

Or the SpaceJet or E190 E2 or A223 could be the other right aircraft for SWA.

WaywardMemphian wrote:

Southwest is dead in the water, unable to grow and having to shuffle passengers around on a regular interval to make the flying work. They have all kinds of pressure from the bottom with a serious new contender coming along with a better hard product. If they don't get their Max back before the end of the year it may get ugly.

I had mentioned in the Southwest Fleet/Network Thread that WN needs to make defensive moves against possible adds by Breeze Airways, and that post can be found at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437991&start=50#p22024189.

Sources such as Smarter Travel, Conde Nast Traveler, and Wikipedia had mentioned that Breeze Airways is considering serving some markets that have already have a significant WN presence such as AUS and OAK.

I had also mentioned that WN would still have some competitive advantages over Breeze Airways, including
(a) WN's ability to connect passengers to destinations not served by Breeze Airways,
(b) WN already having an established frequent flyer base in some of the markets that Breeze Airways is considering serving, and
(c) WN not charging fees for things that Breeze might charge fees for such as 1st and 2nd checked bags and itinerary changes.

WaywardMemphian wrote:

UWPAviation wrote:

With the ways things keep going for the MAX, maybe we see it back in service by the fall? If not in service until 2021, why not look at other options.

Southwest is dead in the water, unable to grow and having to shuffle passengers around on a regular interval to make the flying work. They have all kinds of pressure from the bottom with a serious new contender coming along with a better hard product. If they don't get their Max back before the end of the year it may get ugly.

Pretty sure an airlines goal is to “ shuffle people around” and whom is this up and coming newcomer that’s even close to southwest’s scale fleet and destination wise ?

Everyone is still assuming thats the MAX will be back. It might not. Boeing might be forced to do a complete redesign of the 737. Clearly an unstable MAX is not a good pssenger option. Boeing could do an all composite 737 and steal the market from Airbus but at the moment the management are head in the sand hoping the FAA certifies the MAX. It might not and how will Boeinga manage if the FAA says no?

Southwest are taking the only action they can. They must be doing a lot of maintenance on their older aircraft costing them money and no replacement in sight. How long can that continue?

goosebayguy wrote:

Everyone is still assuming thats the MAX will be back. It might not. Boeing might be forced to do a complete redesign of the 737. Clearly an unstable MAX is not a good pssenger option. Boeing could do an all composite 737 and steal the market from Airbus but at the moment the management are head in the sand hoping the FAA certifies the MAX. It might not and how will Boeinga manage if the FAA says no?

Southwest are taking the only action they can. They must be doing a lot of maintenance on their older aircraft costing them money and no replacement in sight. How long can that continue?

What evidence do you have that the Max will never fly again? The FAA said that Boeing's return to service date of June/July was conservative. Meaning the FAA thinks it will be back in the air sooner than that. There is no other option but to move forward with the Max. Too much money has already been thrown at it.

Karlsands wrote:

WaywardMemphian wrote:

UWPAviation wrote:

With the ways things keep going for the MAX, maybe we see it back in service by the fall? If not in service until 2021, why not look at other options.

Southwest is dead in the water, unable to grow and having to shuffle passengers around on a regular interval to make the flying work. They have all kinds of pressure from the bottom with a serious new contender coming along with a better hard product. If they don't get their Max back before the end of the year it may get ugly.

Pretty sure an airlines goal is to “ shuffle people around” and whom is this up and coming newcomer that’s even close to southwest’s scale fleet and destination wise ?

Pretty sure the public doesn't like having their itinerary changed when a flight is canceled(particularly a nonstop) and told you gotta change planes here, there and everywhere. It's been mentioned WN was looking at COS, Breeze doesn't have to have scale to beat Southwest to punch on core routes.

Southwest definitely has options from Airbus it really depends on which option will fit their future needs.
- 150 and/or 162 seat A320NEO and 200 seat A321NEO
or
- 145 seat A223

I believe fleet diversity at WN is needed. Even though the cost will rise. I believe the size of WN will minimize the cost increase. This can never happen again at WN. I hope they don't get blinded by whatever discount Boeing waves in front of their faces.

Just to recap WN has lost approximately $828 million in 2019 due to the MAX grounding. That's shy of $1 Billion. Next month will make a full year that MAX has last seen the skies. By the time this is all said and done WN overall loss because of the MAX will surpass $1 billion. I think this becomes too big of a risk with a 700+ single type fleet.

TTailedTiger wrote:

There is no other option but to move forward with the Max. Too much money has already been thrown at it.

Too much money, sure, but that has nothing to do with it being certified back to service. Even if the FAA gives a "go", what about the Chinese? They could well ban MAX forever from flying in China. Good luck with that then.

I say again, I would be extremely surprised if Boeing has not been working on the MAX replacement for a year already, (full speed). If the MAX is not certifiable in the end, they need a plan B. And their plan B could not have been "stick with plan A". That would be irresponsible.

Fun fact, travelling currently in Germany, I overheard a couple of local businessmen having a casual chat just about everything (obviously no aviation experts). They also touched the MAX, and both agreed that they will never set a foot in one. This is one aspect that I think Boeing might be under-estimating, they think people are just stupid sheep.

tullamarine wrote:

You can't help thinking this is more an effort to ramp up the pressure on Boeing to get MAX sorted sooner rather than later. I still can't imagine them moving away from their all-737 fleet.

Courtesy: Aviation Pros

Southwest Airlines' 'Bet-the-Company Decision:' Should it stick with Boeing's 737?

"Some analysts have suggested that Southwest could be pressured into buying another airline such as JetBlue or Allegiant to bulk up its fleet almost immediately, a move that Stifel financial analyst Joseph DeNardi warned against."

https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/news/21126146/southwest-airlines-betthecompany-decision-should-it-stick-with-boeings-737

A second overall fleet type would not be the worst thing in the world for WN.

KarlB737 wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

You can't help thinking this is more an effort to ramp up the pressure on Boeing to get MAX sorted sooner rather than later. I still can't imagine them moving away from their all-737 fleet.

Courtesy: Aviation Pros

Southwest Airlines' 'Bet-the-Company Decision:' Should it stick with Boeing's 737?

"Some analysts have suggested that Southwest could be pressured into buying another airline such as JetBlue or Allegiant to bulk up its fleet almost immediately, a move that Stifel financial analyst Joseph DeNardi warned against."

https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/news/21126146/southwest-airlines-betthecompany-decision-should-it-stick-with-boeings-737

Pardon if this is a dumb question but could Southwest buy at jetBlue and leave it as a stand-alone company more or less. Optimize routes, ops, and such but keep the strong jetBlue brand?

being born and raised in NYC I wouldn't fly southwest, it has a bad brand here, I also follow the rule if jetblue doesn't go there, I don't need to go there (in the US) and that works for most native new yorkers.

But I digress, I don't want southwest to consume jetblue but could they do it to get fleet access and then leave it as a separate company with aligned routes?

People... why is this topic a shock.

The 737 replacement means Southwest will have to have a replacement S E C O N D aircraft!

A 600+ Strong aircraft fleet does not disappear overnight.

Strategic analysis

• go smaller size aircraft
• wait for 737 replacement
• “acquire” a complimentary fleet
• capitalize on tried and true
• something else

KlimaBXsst wrote:

People... why is this topic a shock.

The 737 replacement means Southwest will have to have a replacement S E C O N D aircraft!

A 600+ Strong aircraft fleet does not disappear overnight.

You'd be surprised what a bit of paperwork can do.

WashtubFields wrote:

I don't want southwest to consume jetblue but could they do it to get fleet access and then leave it as a separate company with aligned routes?

Whether it's JetBlue or anyone else, any potential merger or takeover would likely take much longer than simply waiting out the MAX grounding so it still wouldn't solve their short-term fleet problems.

What you're proposing would be far too costly for them to be something they'd be interested in. Simply operating a different aircraft type will be a major cultural/operational/strategic change for WN so running a separate costly subsidiary has to be completely off the table.

Also, even IF (BIG if) they did buy JetBlue they can't just swap aircraft around at will to fill their own needs, for a bunch of different reasons that I'll let more informed industry members to lay out if they choose.

I don't think WN is in a position to buy an established airline anyway, and I don't think JetBlue would be a good target for them anyway if they were. I think they're just going to have to ride out the MAX ordeal in the short term and make long-term fleet plans accordingly.

Carlos01 wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

There is no other option but to move forward with the Max. Too much money has already been thrown at it.

Too much money, sure, but that has nothing to do with it being certified back to service. Even if the FAA gives a "go", what about the Chinese?

This is a Southwest thread. How many does routes does WN operate to China? Absence of Chinese approval might get more MAXs to WN faster, frankly.

This is, verbatim, how WN discussed adding another type in its annual report. This is why they're waiting this out.

In particular, if the Company’s growth were to be dependent upon the introduction of a new aircraft make and model to the
Company’s fleet, the Company would need to, among other things, (i) develop and implement new maintenance, operating, and training
programs, (ii) secure extensive regulatory approvals, and (iii) implement new technologies. The requirements associated with operating a new
aircraft make and model could take an extended period of time to fulfill and would likely impose substantial costs on the Company. A shift
away from a single fleet type could also add complexity to the Company’s operations, present operational and compliance risks, and
materially increase the Company's costs. Any of these events would have a material, adverse effect on the Company's business, operating results, and financial condition.

If their Gates can handle the Birds, SouthWest Airlines should go all the way and order nothing but The Boeing MAX10.

dc10lover wrote:

If their Gates can handle the Birds, SouthWest Airlines should go all the way and order nothing but The Boeing MAX10.

Looking at the MAX9’s takeoff runway length charts, I don’t think the MAX10 would be a great choice. Especially considering MDW.

MAX8 is their sweet spot. Once the plane is back in service, Southwest should be running fine.

ILikeTrains wrote:

dc10lover wrote:

If their Gates can handle the Birds, SouthWest Airlines should go all the way and order nothing but The Boeing MAX10.

Looking at the MAX9’s takeoff runway length charts, I don’t think the MAX10 would be a great choice. Especially considering MDW.

MAX8 is their sweet spot. Once the plane is back in service, Southwest should be running fine.

Short term, you're right, but WN knows the end of the 737 is coming sooner than later.

I'm thinking the decision on a new plane type will be either the A321NEO family or stick with Boeing

and sign up as a launch customer for the NSA or whatever Boeing decides to call their clean sheet 737 replacement

Carlos01 wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

There is no other option but to move forward with the Max. Too much money has already been thrown at it.

Too much money, sure, but that has nothing to do with it being certified back to service. Even if the FAA gives a "go", what about the Chinese? They could well ban MAX forever from flying in China. Good luck with that then.

I say again, I would be extremely surprised if Boeing has not been working on the MAX replacement for a year already, (full speed). If the MAX is not certifiable in the end, they need a plan B. And their plan B could not have been "stick with plan A". That would be irresponsible.

Fun fact, travelling currently in Germany, I overheard a couple of local businessmen having a casual chat just about everything (obviously no aviation experts). They also touched the MAX, and both agreed that they will never set a foot in one. This is one aspect that I think Boeing might be under-estimating, they think people are just stupid sheep.

It will only return to service after the heaviest of scrutiny, so if people choose not to fly, fine, but that is irrational. Let alone the cost and time of building a new plane, the downstream billions of dollar supply chains that would have to adjust. Let alone 2 operators like Southwest and Ryanair (heavy hand in 737 development) completely changing their business model. Or every other airline with MAX orders.

I agree that the 737MAX (who cares the name, marketing can take care of that) has to move forward. Boeing might have cut corners and been caught with pants down, but they have an arsenal of expertise and will bring in whatever they do not possess to get it back in the air.

Sooner787 wrote:

ILikeTrains wrote:

dc10lover wrote:

If their Gates can handle the Birds, SouthWest Airlines should go all the way and order nothing but The Boeing MAX10.

Looking at the MAX9’s takeoff runway length charts, I don’t think the MAX10 would be a great choice. Especially considering MDW.

MAX8 is their sweet spot. Once the plane is back in service, Southwest should be running fine.

Short term, you're right, but WN knows the end of the 737 is coming sooner than later.

I'm thinking the decision on a new plane type will be either the A321NEO family or stick with Boeing

and sign up as a launch customer for the NSA or whatever Boeing decides to call their clean sheet 737 replacement

That wouldnt do them any favors. That would take their 1-type operation to 3. If it is any Airbus it would be the A320NEO that is the sweet spot of their operation. A321 is too much of a jump to be operated at any scale. Again this only would happen if the MAX never flies again (not saying that is the case). WNs next type wil be what comes after the MAX or NEO,

vulindlela744 wrote:

The CEO of Southwest was given the green light by the Board of Directors of Southwest to look at other aircraft as the MAX grounding drags on. Article from today’s Chicago Tribune https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... utType=amp

The stupidity of Boeing with this whole 737 Max fiasco is beyond belief. I sold my Boeing stock today.

slider wrote:

A second overall fleet type would not be the worst thing in the world for WN.

They’re going to have to at some point in the future.

INFINITI329 wrote:

Southwest definitely has options from Airbus it really depends on which option will fit their future needs.
- 150 and/or 162 seat A320NEO and 200 seat A321NEO
or
- 145 seat A223

I believe fleet diversity at WN is needed. Even though the cost will rise. I believe the size of WN will minimize the cost increase. This can never happen again at WN. I hope they don't get blinded by whatever discount Boeing waves in front of their faces.

Just to recap WN has lost approximately $828 million in 2019 due to the MAX grounding. That's shy of $1 Billion. Next month will make a full year that MAX has last seen the skies. By the time this is all said and done WN overall loss because of the MAX will surpass $1 billion. I think this becomes too big of a risk with a 700+ single type fleet.

First, they will be compensated by Boeing for the losses due to the MAX. Second, they may have lost $828 million in revenue but definitely not in profit. Their 2019 EBITDA was $4.22 billion vs $4.37 billion in 2018. I don't think they had planned for over 15.5% profit growth from 2018 to 2019 which is what it would have been if they added $828 million in profit.

hivue wrote:

KlimaBXsst wrote:

A 600+ Strong aircraft fleet does not disappear overnight.

With MAXes pouring in to WN after RTS their 737 fleet won't disappear for a generation or so.

ILNFlyer wrote:

I sold my Boeing stock today.

Did you sell your Southwest stock too?

SQ789 wrote:

Should WN order E175 like DL, AA, UA and AS next? It's useful for operating at smaller airports.

Southwest has 0 scope relief all flying done under the Southwest code or that can interline with Southwest must be operated by Southwest pilots so I don't think the E175 is viable for them

slider wrote:

A second overall fleet type would not be the worst thing in the world for WN.

In fact there are successful airline companies it there right now operating with more than one fleet type.

WN should aggressively pursue Airbus aircraft. While they’re at it, they can help weather the MAX storm by implementing cost cutting measures like reduce free bags to one.

hivue wrote:

ILNFlyer wrote:

I sold my Boeing stock today.

Did you sell your Southwest stock too?

No, I dont have any.

If WN were to buy anyone JetBlue would comes with the biggest rewards and smallest overlap.
The market Cap in BOS,JFK,FLL in addition to the Huge Slot increases at LGA and DCA.

Allegiant or Frontier make no sense at all.
AlaskaAir Has to many small markets within the Pacific Northwest and Alaska to even want to bother with.

Spirit brings only a enhancement to FLL and Caribbean and South America.
Many dart board additions would be eliminated.
WN and Spirit overlap quite a lot these days many markets would be eliminated to spread the fleet within the WN system.

The MAX will get fixed and flying again.
Boeing going to Owe WN a lot of money for the debacle. Boeing going to need to shore up some long term orders they will definitely be making Big discounts to WN on future orders.

Flyguy

Nothing like stagnant growth for a year due to putting all their eggs on the MAX, and who knows what could happen if the MAX program has problems again. The fact is WN is getting eaten by other carriers taking on their planned capacity growth.

I wonder what Southwest’s fleet would be like today if Herb chose the DC-9 instead of the 737-200.

MontaukMonster wrote:

I wonder what Southwest’s fleet would be like today if Herb chose the DC-9 instead of the 737-200.

BAC111s, Desault Mercures, and TU-104s.

Being serious (who? ME?), It would likely consist of a mix of remaining MDs that are timing out, and 737s of various flavors.

I heard WN was kicking the tires on the C Series a few years ago. How about the 220? I think it would be a perfect compliment to their current fleet, and be helpful in markets the 737 isn't so hot on. Anyone with the ability to make a WN paint job on the A220? I bet it would look sexy on it too.

Lootess wrote:

Nothing like stagnant growth for a year due to putting all their eggs on the MAX, and who knows what could happen if the MAX program has problems again. The fact is WN is getting eaten by other carriers taking on their planned capacity growth.

Hindsight does funny things, right? The all-737 fleet has been a major key to their successful business model. Now everyone wants to jump on them for being foolish as if this MAX situation should’ve been anticipated.

ILNFlyer wrote:

vulindlela744 wrote:

The CEO of Southwest was given the green light by the Board of Directors of Southwest to look at other aircraft as the MAX grounding drags on. Article from today’s Chicago Tribune https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... utType=amp

The stupidity of Boeing with this whole 737 Max fiasco is beyond belief. I sold my Boeing stock today.

You’re supposed to sell high...

RickNRoll wrote:

slider wrote:

A second overall fleet type would not be the worst thing in the world for WN.

In fact there are successful airline companies it there right now operating with more than one fleet type.

And you just reinforced the post you quoted.

Southwest is not buying JetBlue. The more I think about it, the less sense it makes. They haven't been able to compete in Northeast where all the legacy carriers have much stronger name recognition. JFK slots don't really help them that much. WN would love to have 100 more LGA slots, but B6 doesn't have that. And they'd get crushed at BOS by AA/DL. It's just not the type of city they do well in.

If anything, Southwest is most likely going to buy NK. NK is a real threat to their bottom line. I see Southwest solving that problem with a merger.

Also, if WN is going to pick a new fleet to add, it might as well pick a new fleet family with its future in the front. That would be A220. A320 series make no sense for them if Airbus replaces it in 15 years. Also, with 700 series retiring, WN is going to have a lot of struggles in these high frequency markets running MAX8 against lower capacity aircraft. It really needs an aircraft with lower capacity and is still efficient. MAX7 is just a lot less efficient than A220. Who knows if fleet simplicity makes up for that.

Southwest doesn't need Jetblue, unless they really want a JFK and LGB hub since those slots are limited. You never know, if Kelly and the gang decide to change course. Airtran wasn't really necessary either. But it would be wise to look into Airbus, because we don't know if the MAX will be successful at this point, the problems are still dangling over the program until it's proven. Then you have leverage as well, and they can certainly start with more appropriate planes for transcon and Hawaii.

Aceskywalker wrote:

WN should aggressively pursue Airbus aircraft. While they’re at it, they can help weather the MAX storm by implementing cost cutting measures like reduce free bags to one.

I agree. That's what Delta did first, dropped to one free domestic before the shoe dropped on the other foot.

If anything that'll help their bottom line a little more, because they really can't lose another year without the MAX. The bag fee debate is so muted nowadays because the legacies offer a free bag on every trip if you have their credit card.

XRadar98 wrote:

RickNRoll wrote:

slider wrote:

A second overall fleet type would not be the worst thing in the world for WN.

In fact there are successful airline companies it there right now operating with more than one fleet type.

And you just reinforced the post you quoted.

I sense that was the intent of his post. Not everyone comes to A.Net just to be contrarian and argue with everyone. Some of us are nice.

Even a Boeing NSA/RS will have the same introduction issues as any Airbus fleet addition. They will have to tackle multiple fleets at some point.

I dont think WN can get A320/321s until the mid-late 2020s. That means in short term theyd need to order 220s or aquire an Airbus only airline. Like NK, F9 or B6. Who knows what they'll do.

Lootess wrote:

Southwest doesn't need Jetblue, unless they really want a JFK and LGB hub since those slots are limited. You never know, if Kelly and the gang decide to change course. Airtran wasn't really necessary either. But it would be wise to look into Airbus, because we don't know if the MAX will be successful at this point, the problems are still dangling over the program until it's proven. Then you have leverage as well, and they can certainly start with more appropriate planes for transcon and Hawaii.

Aceskywalker wrote:

WN should aggressively pursue Airbus aircraft. While they’re at it, they can help weather the MAX storm by implementing cost cutting measures like reduce free bags to one.

I agree. That's what Delta did first, dropped to one free domestic before the shoe dropped on the other foot.

If anything that'll help their bottom line a little more, because they really can't lose another year without the MAX. The bag fee debate is so muted nowadays because the legacies offer a free bag on every trip if you have their credit card.

I disagree. WN should keep the two bags fly free. They offer a good service for a fair price. B6 led the latest bag fee increase, betraying David Neeleman's vision for "bringing humanity back to air travel."

I think WN should buy B6, eliminate the oppressive bag fees for the first two bags, operate the A320 family and also order A220s, as has been suggested. I love Boeing with all of my heart, but they need to either get the MAX right and/or come up with something else.

Iloveboeing wrote:

I think WN should buy B6, eliminate the oppressive bag fees for the first two bags, operate the A320 family and also order A220s, as has been suggested. I love Boeing with all of my heart, but they need to either get the MAX right and/or come up with something else.

You do realize that after WN purchased FL, they left the bag fees in place until the carriers were fully integrated on a single certificate, right? The bag fees basically paid for the acquisition.

toltommy wrote:

Iloveboeing wrote:

I think WN should buy B6, eliminate the oppressive bag fees for the first two bags, operate the A320 family and also order A220s, as has been suggested. I love Boeing with all of my heart, but they need to either get the MAX right and/or come up with something else.

You do realize that after WN purchased FL, they left the bag fees in place until the carriers were fully integrated on a single certificate, right? The bag fees basically paid for the acquisition.

Yeah, but my point is, they got rid of them. There are many people who will fly WN specifically because they get two free checked bags. WN has been able to successfully differentiate themselves by not charging for the first two bags (although it should have been left at the original three, IMO). WN can be profitable without charging for bags. And I don't care what the bean counters on Wall Street say: I applaud Gary Kelly and his team for sticking true to their word and not charging for bags. They have my respect.

Isn't it ironic how WN used to be dragged through the mud as being the "cheap, no frills airline?" You get better service on WN than you do the legacies. It's sad that carriers who used to serve hot meals on domestic flights now have an inferior product to the underdog that they once bemoaned.

T54A wrote:

keesje wrote:

Slowly reality is sinking in.
Just one thing is worse than leaving the sole 737 fleet strategy, that is sticking with it.

My thoughts exactly. If this Max debacle has shown anything, it’s a single type fleet is very risky. Be that all A or all B. If I were on the board, I would advise diversity.

Amen. Been saying that even before the MAX debacle.

There's going to be a point where the benefits of a sole fleet intersects with the risk... and we may have passed it.

Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Suncountry, Easyjet, Ryanair: “single fleet type is the way to go.”

Southwest: “YOU CANT DO BUSINESS WITH A SINGLE TYPE FLEET!!!”

Northwest1988 wrote:

Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Suncountry, Easyjet, Ryanair: “single fleet type is the way to go.”

Southwest: “YOU CANT DO BUSINESS WITH A SINGLE TYPE FLEET!!!”

Southwest is by far the largest single-type airline out there. The MAX situation has hurt them hard and has clearly shown the risk that being a single-type airline carries. Ryanair, while smaller, has also been hit hard by MAX. As shown above, you reach a point where the risk of operating only one type outweighs the cost of operating a mixed fleet.

Sun Country is at the opposite end of the scale - they are a small airline and the costs of operating a mixed fleet would certainly outweigh the benefits of only flying one type.