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Aceskywalker
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:30 am

Iloveboeing wrote:
Lootess wrote:
Southwest doesn't need Jetblue, unless they really want a JFK and LGB hub since those slots are limited. You never know, if Kelly and the gang decide to change course. Airtran wasn't really necessary either. But it would be wise to look into Airbus, because we don't know if the MAX will be successful at this point, the problems are still dangling over the program until it's proven. Then you have leverage as well, and they can certainly start with more appropriate planes for transcon and Hawaii.

Aceskywalker wrote:
WN should aggressively pursue Airbus aircraft. While they’re at it, they can help weather the MAX storm by implementing cost cutting measures like reduce free bags to one.


I agree. That's what Delta did first, dropped to one free domestic before the shoe dropped on the other foot.

If anything that'll help their bottom line a little more, because they really can't lose another year without the MAX. The bag fee debate is so muted nowadays because the legacies offer a free bag on every trip if you have their credit card.


I disagree. WN should keep the two bags fly free. They offer a good service for a fair price. B6 led the latest bag fee increase, betraying David Neeleman's vision for "bringing humanity back to air travel."

I think WN should buy B6, eliminate the oppressive bag fees for the first two bags, operate the A320 family and also order A220s, as has been suggested. I love Boeing with all of my heart, but they need to either get the MAX right and/or come up with something else.


This thread is far from the best place to discuss this, but one can argue that the 2 free bags leads to induced demand, leading to fuller and heavier airplanes in the hold. WN dropping to one free checked bag, or falling in line with virtually the rest of the domestic flights with paid bags would A) bring in extra revenue source, B) reduce weight in aircraft, and C) allow WN to reduce the amount of baggage handing personnel and equipment. Loyal WN customers will also likely own one of their cobranded credit cards like the person you quoted mentioned, partially negating it.

And WN's prices at this point in their history are similar to legacy carriers.
 
744SPX
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:55 am

scbriml wrote:
Northwest1988 wrote:
Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Suncountry, Easyjet, Ryanair: “single fleet type is the way to go.”

Southwest: “YOU CANT DO BUSINESS WITH A SINGLE TYPE FLEET!!!”


Southwest is by far the largest single-type airline out there. The MAX situation has hurt them hard and has clearly shown the risk that being a single-type airline carries. Ryanair, while smaller, has also been hit hard by MAX. As shown above, you reach a point where the risk of operating only one type outweighs the cost of operating a mixed fleet.

Sun Country is at the opposite end of the scale - they are a small airline and the costs of operating a mixed fleet would certainly outweigh the benefits of only flying one type.


Good point. I fly Sun County a lot, (I'm an MN native living in CO) and they could certainly be a potential A320/A220 customer if the MAX fails.
 
Ric99
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:06 am

Northwest1988 wrote:
Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Suncountry, Easyjet, Ryanair: “single fleet type is the way to go.”

Southwest: “YOU CANT DO BUSINESS WITH A SINGLE TYPE FLEET!!!”


Ryanair is no longer a single type fleet, they purchased Lauda with their Airbuses. And will buy more once they have the right price and slots.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:12 am

Though trijets, may not be the optimal solution,

it sure would be nice for Southwest to have a tri MAX powered aircraft in an L1011 or 727 configuration.

Maximum engine commonality, significant airframe commonality if such a configuration existed! Yes airlines cannot put all their eggs in one basket!
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
oschkosch
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:39 am

Does anybody know, at what point do the benefits of operating single type flight become obsolete? I mean, how big is the fleet size.
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scbriml
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:55 am

oschkosch wrote:
Does anybody know, at what point do the benefits of operating single type flight become obsolete? I mean, how big is the fleet size.


There would be many factors that would influence such a calculation, meaning that there isn't a "single answer". If there was one, it would be 42. :wink2:

I guess a look at the size of airlines that operate mixed fleets of A320s and 737s would give a useful indication.
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ILNFlyer
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:40 pm

XRadar98 wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
vulindlela744 wrote:
The CEO of Southwest was given the green light by the Board of Directors of Southwest to look at other aircraft as the MAX grounding drags on. Article from today’s Chicago Tribune https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... utType=amp


The stupidity of Boeing with this whole 737 Max fiasco is beyond belief. I sold my Boeing stock today.


You’re supposed to sell high...


Well, considering I bought it when it was at $60 and sold it at $330, I think I did pretty well
 
nkawtg15
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:57 pm

Might this be a time to snag a deal on some larger longer range 321s (LR/XLR/ULR) giving them a slightly larger replacement to the Max 8s but also giving them more flexibility with new longer/international routes. A trickling down effect that replaces the older 700 and 800s could follow over time with neo 320s.
It really is amazing how long and drawn out this has been, a huge shame. I enjoyed flying on the Max when I had the chance.

The article attached is from October 2019.

In a sentance, can anyone ident why the software fix or required fixes has taken so long to develop/test/implement/approve?
 
T54A
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:36 pm

Northwest1988 wrote:
Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Suncountry, Easyjet, Ryanair: “single fleet type is the way to go.”

Southwest: “YOU CANT DO BUSINESS WITH A SINGLE TYPE FLEET!!!”


No one said you can’t make money with a single type. The idea is to mitigate the risk to future business associated with a single type. The risk became a reality with the Max. Any responsible board would want to reduce that risk moving forward. The discussion isn’t even about which is better. That’s irrelevant.
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william
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:18 pm

scbriml wrote:
Northwest1988 wrote:
Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Suncountry, Easyjet, Ryanair: “single fleet type is the way to go.”

Southwest: “YOU CANT DO BUSINESS WITH A SINGLE TYPE FLEET!!!”


Southwest is by far the largest single-type airline out there. The MAX situation has hurt them hard and has clearly shown the risk that being a single-type airline carries. Ryanair, while smaller, has also been hit hard by MAX. As shown above, you reach a point where the risk of operating only one type outweighs the cost of operating a mixed fleet.

Sun Country is at the opposite end of the scale - they are a small airline and the costs of operating a mixed fleet would certainly outweigh the benefits of only flying one type.


Spirit? Frontier? EasyJet ?
 
dstblj52
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:49 am

william wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Northwest1988 wrote:
Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Suncountry, Easyjet, Ryanair: “single fleet type is the way to go.”

Southwest: “YOU CANT DO BUSINESS WITH A SINGLE TYPE FLEET!!!”


Southwest is by far the largest single-type airline out there. The MAX situation has hurt them hard and has clearly shown the risk that being a single-type airline carries. Ryanair, while smaller, has also been hit hard by MAX. As shown above, you reach a point where the risk of operating only one type outweighs the cost of operating a mixed fleet.

Sun Country is at the opposite end of the scale - they are a small airline and the costs of operating a mixed fleet would certainly outweigh the benefits of only flying one type.


Spirit? Frontier? EasyJet ?

Southwest has 750 aircraft in its fleet
spirit has 148
frontier has 98 aircraft
easyjet has 331
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:57 am

Do any Airbus A320 series parts fit on any Boeing 737 aircraft.

Like some 727 and 737 parts were interchangeable.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
716131
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:19 am

If they want Airbus and more Boeing (Mixed), there is some can be available for purchase second hand from HNA if they really want. HNA has ground most of it's fleet since this month due to Coronavirus and further financial problems.
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scbriml
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:50 am

william wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Northwest1988 wrote:
Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Suncountry, Easyjet, Ryanair: “single fleet type is the way to go.”

Southwest: “YOU CANT DO BUSINESS WITH A SINGLE TYPE FLEET!!!”


Southwest is by far the largest single-type airline out there. The MAX situation has hurt them hard and has clearly shown the risk that being a single-type airline carries. Ryanair, while smaller, has also been hit hard by MAX. As shown above, you reach a point where the risk of operating only one type outweighs the cost of operating a mixed fleet.

Sun Country is at the opposite end of the scale - they are a small airline and the costs of operating a mixed fleet would certainly outweigh the benefits of only flying one type.


Spirit? Frontier? EasyJet ?


What about them?
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There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:08 pm

For Southwest, Alaska, and the US 3, I think any fleet replacement would benefit most by having pieces and parts which are interchangeable with existing Boeing Aircraft.

This in particular applies to Southwest and Alaska do to their #5 fleet size.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:09 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
For Southwest, Alaska, and the US 3, I think any fleet replacement would benefit most by having pieces and parts which are interchangeable with existing Boeing Aircraft.

This in particular applies to Southwest and Alaska due to their #5 fleet size.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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Antaras
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:18 pm

Duo-type is becoming a trend with LCCs.
For example, Vietjet is operating nearly 80 A320/321/321neo, with a large number of A321neos and 200 MAXs on orders.
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cledaybuck
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:32 pm

scbriml wrote:
Northwest1988 wrote:
Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Suncountry, Easyjet, Ryanair: “single fleet type is the way to go.”

Southwest: “YOU CANT DO BUSINESS WITH A SINGLE TYPE FLEET!!!”


Southwest is by far the largest single-type airline out there. The MAX situation has hurt them hard and has clearly shown the risk that being a single-type airline carries. Ryanair, while smaller, has also been hit hard by MAX. As shown above, you reach a point where the risk of operating only one type outweighs the cost of operating a mixed fleet.

Sun Country is at the opposite end of the scale - they are a small airline and the costs of operating a mixed fleet would certainly outweigh the benefits of only flying one type.

How would Southwest be any better off right now if they had 100 NEO's? Assuming the MAX was the same percentage of the fleet, I don't see how their situation would be any different. Seems like the solution is to not buy a fleet type that gets grounded.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:21 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
How would Southwest be any better off right now if they had 100 NEO's? Assuming the MAX was the same percentage of the fleet, I don't see how their situation would be any different.


I think it's a case of discussing a hypothetical situation - IF Southwest's fleet was 100% MAX, they wouldn't be flying at all. On the other hand, IF their fleet was 50% MAX and 50% A320, they'd still be able to run half their operation.

cledaybuck wrote:
Seems like the solution is to not buy a fleet type that gets grounded.


That would undoubtedly help, but maybe the crystal ball shop was out of stock when Southwest ordered MAX? :wink2:
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There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:23 pm

scbriml wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
How would Southwest be any better off right now if they had 100 NEO's? Assuming the MAX was the same percentage of the fleet, I don't see how their situation would be any different.


I think it's a case of discussing a hypothetical situation - IF Southwest's fleet was 100% MAX, they wouldn't be flying at all. On the other hand, IF their fleet was 50% MAX and 50% A320, they'd still be able to run half their operation.

cledaybuck wrote:
Seems like the solution is to not buy a fleet type that gets grounded.


That would undoubtedly help, but maybe the crystal ball shop was out of stock when Southwest ordered MAX? :wink2:
I guess I question that too. Doesn't the operation fall apart without half of the fleet? Not only do you lose half your routes, you lose all the feed those provide for the other half. Maybe you could make it work on a very short term basis, but nothing like the timeline the MAX grounding is going to last.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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CARST
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:36 pm

Everyone here is laughing and saying it's corporate tactics to get discounts and compensation, until Southwest orders 200 NEOs...

I think it is more likely, that they stay with the MAX. But at this point, nothing is impossible. We are looking at the longest grounding of a fleet type since commercial passenger flights started. And it is not over yet. We are reaching the 12 month on the ground in a few days. And it will drag on for how long? Another 3 months? 4 months? 6? More? What a debacle. And the worst thing is, no one will go to prison for this.
 
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william
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
william wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Southwest is by far the largest single-type airline out there. The MAX situation has hurt them hard and has clearly shown the risk that being a single-type airline carries. Ryanair, while smaller, has also been hit hard by MAX. As shown above, you reach a point where the risk of operating only one type outweighs the cost of operating a mixed fleet.

Sun Country is at the opposite end of the scale - they are a small airline and the costs of operating a mixed fleet would certainly outweigh the benefits of only flying one type.


Spirit? Frontier? EasyJet ?


What about them?


They all operate a single type aircraft and it works for them. Airbus or Boeing it works for them........Whats funny, many LCC took their business plan from SWA, the original low fare carrier, and keeping the fleet simple in one of the tenets. Should Spirit, Frontier and EasyJets buy some E2s to keep from being beholden to one manufacturer?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:39 pm

william wrote:
They all operate a single type aircraft and it works for them. Airbus or Boeing it works for them........Whats funny, many LCC took their business plan from SWA, the original low fare carrier, and keeping the fleet simple in one of the tenets. Should Spirit, Frontier and EasyJets buy some E2s to keep from being beholden to one manufacturer?


Yes, and everyone thought Southwest’s strategy was brilliant until MAX was grounded. What the MAX grounding has done is highlight the risk of being a large airline operating a single type. It might cause some to think twice about that strategy, it might change nothing. We shall see.
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PW100
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:02 pm

scbriml wrote:
william wrote:
They all operate a single type aircraft and it works for them. Airbus or Boeing it works for them........Whats funny, many LCC took their business plan from SWA, the original low fare carrier, and keeping the fleet simple in one of the tenets. Should Spirit, Frontier and EasyJets buy some E2s to keep from being beholden to one manufacturer?


Yes, and everyone thought Southwest’s strategy was brilliant until MAX was grounded. What the MAX grounding has done is highlight the risk of being a large airline operating a single type. It might cause some to think twice about that strategy, it might change nothing. We shall see.


I'm not really convinced.

Supposed they would have ordered 200 NEOs rather than Maxes. and the NEO would have been grounded for whatever reason. Then they be in exactly the same position.
Therefore the business risk is not a function of the "single type fleet".

Further, their fleet really is not single type. They have NG and Max. How long would it take for all their NGs to be replaced by Max? 15 years? 20 years?

There is a huge difference between their first NG and their last NG. Probably no more than 20 - 25% identical parts count.

The older the fleets gets the less change the full fleet will be hit by full grounding. Once the fleet matures, risk of full grounding is extremely small. I can't think of anything that would cause a full blown grounding of the entire NG fleet (or A320ceo for that matter).

Introducing a new (sub-)type will Always carry some risks. Fleet grounding is one of them, But it applies to all models. Having such a large fleet as SWA would not materially change this risk by choosing different supplier.

I'm more inclined to think that diversification of their fleet would be about introducing a new market plane (such as A220), rather than more of the same market.
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Lootess
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:27 pm

scbriml wrote:
william wrote:
They all operate a single type aircraft and it works for them. Airbus or Boeing it works for them........Whats funny, many LCC took their business plan from SWA, the original low fare carrier, and keeping the fleet simple in one of the tenets. Should Spirit, Frontier and EasyJets buy some E2s to keep from being beholden to one manufacturer?


Yes, and everyone thought Southwest’s strategy was brilliant until MAX was grounded. What the MAX grounding has done is highlight the risk of being a large airline operating a single type. It might cause some to think twice about that strategy, it might change nothing. We shall see.


Exactly, second I don't know why people plug Southwest as an LCC still, they have the size and pricing of a legacy carrier. There is nothing cheap about the airline anymore. Free bags? Well, we already talked about how that issue is muted nowadays earlier.

The risk is just too large now to have one fleet type, but the fact of the matter is the MAX grounding being almost a year is very problematic for growth, and potentially letting older aircraft go. Would Southwest have pulled out of EWR had the MAX still been flying? Good question.
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:00 pm

PW100 wrote:

I'm not really convinced.

Supposed they would have ordered 200 NEOs rather than Maxes. and the NEO would have been grounded for whatever reason. Then they be in exactly the same position.
Therefore the business risk is not a function of the "single type fleet".


Unless I'm misreading your post, this isn't making sense. Of course if they'd ordered the NEOs only instead of the MAXes (or did you mean 200 NEOs in addition to the MAX) and the NEOs got grounded they'd be in the exact same position because they had a large fleet....of only NEOs, which is exactly the danger being talked about. Having a large single fleet of any type puts you in a difficult position if said type is grounded. In this case, it just happens to be the MAX.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:22 pm

And now Leeham reports:

Southwest Airlines will go through the exercise this year or next of evaluating adding another fleet type, but the buzz is that don’t expect any change from its reliance on Boeing. The carrier is scouring the market for 737NGs and MAXes for expansion. The collapse of India’s Jet Airways and Air Italy offer some near-term MAXes.

Consensus is that as long as Gary Kelly is with Southwest, there won’t be any deviation from the Boeing 737. Kelly is now chairman. He’s been with the carrier since 1986. He’s 65, but he shows no signs of preparing to retire.

Ref: https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/10/heard ... more-32831

So WN will kick off an exercise to satisfy the BoD request for due diligence, meanwhile WN will be kicking tires on former Jet Airways and Air Italy 737s, with no real expectation of anything but more 737s in the near term future.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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SWADawg
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
And now Leeham reports:

Southwest Airlines will go through the exercise this year or next of evaluating adding another fleet type, but the buzz is that don’t expect any change from its reliance on Boeing. The carrier is scouring the market for 737NGs and MAXes for expansion. The collapse of India’s Jet Airways and Air Italy offer some near-term MAXes.

Consensus is that as long as Gary Kelly is with Southwest, there won’t be any deviation from the Boeing 737. Kelly is now chairman. He’s been with the carrier since 1986. He’s 65, but he shows no signs of preparing to retire.

Ref: https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/10/heard ... more-32831

So WN will kick off an exercise to satisfy the BoD request for due diligence, meanwhile WN will be kicking tires on former Jet Airways and Air Italy 737s, with no real expectation of anything but more 737s in the near term future.

That was all that was ever going to realistically happen. The MAX will be back soon, and the number of available white tails that will be made available to WN near term will keep WN loyal to Boeing for the foreseeable future.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
Aceskywalker
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:48 pm

WN could follow the model of WestJet and Ryanair and create offshoot companies. Such an offshoot could bring in economical planes like A220 and implement ULCC tactics that go against their supposed ethos. Like others have said WN is pretty much a legacy in disguise and their big pros like free baggage is pretty much a gimmick if you’re even remotely loyal to the airline.
 
WN732
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:06 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
WN could follow the model of WestJet and Ryanair and create offshoot companies. Such an offshoot could bring in economical planes like A220 and implement ULCC tactics that go against their supposed ethos. Like others have said WN is pretty much a legacy in disguise and their big pros like free baggage is pretty much a gimmick if you’re even remotely loyal to the airline.


How many Metrojets and Songs do there need to be for us to realize that this model doesn't work. The only ones that do work are like Horizon, a wholly-owned subsidiary that focuses on a regional basis instead of being a lower cost offshoot.
 
Aceskywalker
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Re: Southwest CEO given green light by Board to look at other aircraft

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:59 pm

WN732 wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:
WN could follow the model of WestJet and Ryanair and create offshoot companies. Such an offshoot could bring in economical planes like A220 and implement ULCC tactics that go against their supposed ethos. Like others have said WN is pretty much a legacy in disguise and their big pros like free baggage is pretty much a gimmick if you’re even remotely loyal to the airline.


How many Metrojets and Songs do there need to be for us to realize that this model doesn't work. The only ones that do work are like Horizon, a wholly-owned subsidiary that focuses on a regional basis instead of being a lower cost offshoot.


Fair enough - then WN should themselves go a route of embracing ULCC tactics and start chasing profits while the going is bad. I'm fairly sure that WN can get away with tactics like being less generous with free baggage and no change fees up until the boarding doors close, keeping those perks untouched for credit card holders and A List members. That along with diversifying the fleet or even looking for a way out of the MAX (A220, A320neo or pressure Boeing into a clean sheet NB).

Sticking to the topic, the 737 MAX in my opinion has become a boondoggle of an aircraft type; the only plus being the magnifying glass being taken to Boeing, the FAA, foreign regulators, airlines and the profits before people relationship all of them have gotten into with each other. The MAX is more and more likely to find new hurdles to getting recertified, if it ever does, and WN best get on a new boat lest they be left behind by other LCCs that have fuel efficient and modern jets flying now and in the future. MAX re-entry into service is not a matter of when, but if.

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