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VSMUT
Posts: 4680
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:40 am

Checklist787 wrote:
When we listen you Boeing can not /must not launch the FSA, and others solution.

It's pretty pathetic :duck:


Quite to the contrary, I believe a clean sheet 737 replacement is the only way out for Boeing. But it will be an uphill struggle. The damage has already been dealt, Boeing will be on the backfoot for decades. There is no easy way out of this mess.

BTW, how can anybody take you seriously with that username? You are clearly biased. :duck:
 
benbeny
Posts: 240
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:02 am

Now, where's the "bet the company till you make it" of old Boeing?
They bet the company with B-17, B-29, B-47, B-52, 367-80, C-135 and 707, and 747. Last time I saw such a huge gamble was when they made 747. Maybe the bean counters has prevailed there, and the engineering team died from disgust. We need guys like Joe Sutter at the helm.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 737
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:03 am

I wrote it a few times, in my Opinion if Boeing wants to play in the NB market in the Future the NSA (or whatever a new single aisle will be called) has to have absolute priority. Boeing has an absolute amazing line up in the WB segment and building another one just for the sake of closing a gap that obviously cannot be closed economically is not the best idea. A new NB aircraft on the other side is a must, the MAX (even leaving out all the grounding stuff) is just a one trick pony. The -8 is fine but the other versions are so compromised that they cannot compete in the market and are a stop gap solution that only works because the opposition cannot produce more of their products.

Wasting now resources on something different than a new NB could lead to conceding the whole NB market to the opposition. There is no MoM space to be conceded as no one has a product there so it could stay unfilled. You might make no money but you also do not lose any. In the NB market there is a lot of money to lose and coming late to the party again (MAX vs NEO) would be another fiasco in the making.
 
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PacoMartin
Posts: 901
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:07 am

flipdewaf wrote:
I, for one, have never believed in the tight 7w (oval/ovoid or standard) because there is an inherent and fundamental disadvantage in terms of fuselage weight per passenger. Any weight saving measure that can be used to save weight from the 7w solution can be used on a 3-3 to similar effect.
In my opinion Boeing need to be careful and design a simple 180+ seat narrow body. Starting at the 738 size and making sure to almost underwing the machine, growth is easy, weight reduction is not. Aim for 3knm range, it will grow over time.
Fred

Big thumbs up here!

Looking at some previous models I have calculated KG of Operating Empty weight per seat. I used the FAA passenger limit for number of seats so the final calculation may be reasonable for comparison purposes, but low for any sort of absolute reality.

The nearest dual-aisle jet is considerably heavier than the A321neo. I firmly agree with Fred that if Boeing starts work on an ovoid fuselage for the NMA, then Airbus will find a way to circumvent their Boeing's patent and build something similar for the A322.

Airbus has set the standards in innovation in single aisle jets. The B733 was the standard when the much larger A320 was introduced, so Boeing released the B734 a few months later. For the last 30 years it's been a game of cat and mouse, with Airbus making the first move almost every time. It has been the diametric opposite of the dual-aisle development. Finally in 2002 Airbus overtook the B737 in deliveries and just lengthened the lead over the B739.

OEW kg / Limit = Kg/seat : Model
44,677 / 220 = 203 : B737-900ER
50,100 / 240 = 209 : A321neo ----------------------
64,340 / 295 = 218 : B757-300
41,413 / 189 = 219 : B737-800
45,070 / 200 = 225 : MAX-200
44,300 / 195 = 227 : A320neo
37,081 / 160 = 232 : A220-300
58,440 / 239 = 245 : B757-200
37,648 / 149 = 253 : B737-700
90,011 / 351 = 256 : B767-300ER ----------------------
35,221 / 135 = 261 : A220-100
42,600 / 160 = 266 : A319neo
103,872 / 375 = 277 : B767-400ER
82,377 / 290 = 284 : B767-200ER
160,530 / 550 = 292 : B777-300
129,400 / 440 = 294 : A300-300
120,600 / 406 = 297 : A300-200
137,000 / 460 = 298 : A300-900neo
167,829 / 550 = 305 : B777-300ER
128,850 / 420 = 307 : B787-9
135,500 / 440 = 308 : B787-10
138,100 / 440 = 314 : B777-200ER
119,950 / 381 = 315 : B787-8
142,400 / 440 = 324 : A350-900
181,400 / 550 = 330 : B777-9
145,150 / 440 = 330 : B777-200LR
155,000 / 440 = 352 : A350-1000
 
Noshow
Posts: 1781
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:32 am

The 737NG and the 777-300ER were quite successful "warm overs".
Now Boeing should go the 787 route for narrowbodies and finally develop some fully CFRP new 777 (BWB?) but without the super tight budget requirements the 787 had. They led to cost overruns and some overly complex production structure and costly redesigns.
Make Everett the big plastic plane factory and built them all side by side. And use maybe Charleston as the only 787 factory. Like the "Renton of Dreamliners".
 
Strato2
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:36 am

This is another nail to the NMA coffin. Like I've always said it will never be built. There's just no demand to justify the enormous investment nor the efficiency to be able to get two aisles with 7ab seating.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2073
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:41 am

VSMUT wrote:
Not to mention that by the time they ever get it in the air, Airbus will be flush with cash from several thousand A320neos, and can pretty much afford to invest even more in a better clean sheet design.

Now this is quite ridiculous. Boeing is in a far better financial position than Airbus. It is crazy to think that even with the MAX grounding that Boeing is still stronger financially.

The profit margin on Airbus products for the last few years have been much lower than Boeing. Both have had a similar number of aircraft delivered each year but Airbus has nearly half the profit each year.

Boeing will probably deliver 1000 737's in 2020 and make a record profit. They will have 52-57 737's rolling off the production line each month and will have 30 of the grounded 737's delivered each month.

If Boeing has $10 billion of aircraft sitting waiting delivery that is not money lost. They will get paid next year when they get delivered. It is simply a delay in payment.

The only money Boeing has permanently lost on the MAX grounding is the cost of fixing MCAS, damages paid to the families and penalties paid to airlines. This would be pocket change for Boeing and probably a few months worth of profit.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:00 am

PacoMartin wrote:
Looking at some previous models I have calculated KG of Operating Empty weight per seat.

OEW kg / Limit = Kg/seat : Model

142,400 / 440 = 324 : A350-900
155,000 / 440 = 352 : A350-1000

This highlights why this is a bad metric to use. The A350-1000 is lighter per seat in real airline use. An extra pair of exit doors and 26inch pitch seats could see any aircraft appear better.

OEW per square meter of cabin area is a better metric. The 777 in 10ab, the A330 in 9ab and the 767 in 8ab have similar aisle percentage as the A220 for example. Generally a better aisle percentage means more comfort a 2-3-2 767 might have a high aisle percentage and a lower seat number but it is the most comfortable.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:09 am

dampfnudel wrote:
lee757 wrote:
The 757 & 767 were developed alongside each other, shame Boeing didn't do this with the 787 and 7X7.

Yeah, they definitely wouldn’t have been in the mess they are in now if they had developed a NB version of the 787 at the same time. It could be another decade now until they finally give airlines the 737 replacement they should’ve had available today. Who knows what the landscape will be by then? The 77X is another big question mark at the moment. We could have a situation for the next few years where the 787 will be the only bright spot for the company.

Interesting -- you really think the same organization whose CEO is about to go on national TV to talk about all the mistakes it's been making should have taken on a much costlier and much riskier project?

You do understand one of the many reasons why they did MAX and 777X is because the BoD did not trust them to do a clean sheet after the787 debacle, right?

Personally I think one of the reasons they were doing NMA was to reboot their development process from the ground up.

It'll be interesting to see what happens next. With a regime change, anything is possible.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:29 am

The Boeing management believed you could sack any number of skilled engineers to bump up the share price and rehire them like office clerks at any time.
 
Oykie
Posts: 1975
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 9:21 am

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 11:37 am

benbeny wrote:
Now, where's the "bet the company till you make it" of old Boeing?
They bet the company with B-17, B-29, B-47, B-52, 367-80, C-135 and 707, and 747. Last time I saw such a huge gamble was when they made 747. Maybe the bean counters has prevailed there, and the engineering team died from disgust. We need guys like Joe Sutter at the helm.



I would argue that Boeing risked the company with the development of the 787. the whole architecture, and production was revolutionized. The FSA/NMA will benefit from lessons learned.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
Pentaprism
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Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:12 pm

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 11:44 am

RJMAZ wrote:

The only money Boeing has permanently lost on the MAX grounding is the cost of fixing MCAS, damages paid to the families and penalties paid to airlines. This would be pocket change for Boeing and probably a few months worth of profit.


You don't they are going to lose any money through lost sales?
 
Elementalism
Posts: 608
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:39 pm

raylee67 wrote:
And when Boeing confirms it will develop a clean sheet MAX replacement, all Airbus needs to do is to stretch the A220 to develop a 160-seat A220-500. The A220 will then effectively becomes the A318/A319/A320 "clean-sheet" replacement, while the A321NEO stays on with another stretch to make the A322NEO, which together will be the replacement of 757s.


With the same wing from 1994? At some point the A321 will be like the MAX. It will need a clean sheet.

The A220 stretch is an interesting concept. But at what point does it become inefficient compared to a traditional 3-3 design? And would Airbus really want to position themselves with a 2-3 config in the ~160pax market?
 
Elementalism
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:55 pm

Whatever Boeing builds. Make sure it has a taller landing gear so it can take on larger engines in future upgrades.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:39 pm

VSMUT wrote:
BTW, how can anybody take you seriously with that username? You are clearly biased. :duck:


There are like 6 people that can be taken seriously in this forum. Everyone else is pretty much biased towards one of the two companies.
 
AeroplaneFreak
Posts: 296
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:45 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Quite to the contrary, I believe a clean sheet 737 replacement is the only way out for Boeing. But it will be an uphill struggle. The damage has already been dealt, Boeing will be on the backfoot for decades.


Wow, there really are some delusional people on here. I guess it's expected on an online forum but the last 12 months have really exposed the people with tinfoil hats.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:50 pm

The two unnecessary crashes and deaths will haunt the MAX8 in perpetuity. Even though, grandfathered as it is, it is the superior 180 passenger plane for most airlines - big enough, enough range, superior economics. The larger versions are not as capable as the 320 lines, but much of that capability is not needed. The 321 shines with size and range when needed. Boeing does not need a more capable 8, it needs to make it a safe aircraft. Something better than the -8 will appear, but not for a long time.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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william
Posts: 3350
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:57 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The two unnecessary crashes and deaths will haunt the MAX8 in perpetuity. Even though, grandfathered as it is, it is the superior 180 passenger plane for most airlines - big enough, enough range, superior economics. The larger versions are not as capable as the 320 lines, but much of that capability is not needed. The 321 shines with size and range when needed. Boeing does not need a more capable 8, it needs to make it a safe aircraft. Something better than the -8 will appear, but not for a long time.


This is not to disrespect those who have died in these two horrible plane crashes and their grieving families and friends. But the attention span of the public at large ia about a second. When the MAX returns to service, it will be a non story after a week. Six months later, "Max what?". No, this is about Boeing needing a competitive product in the A321 space. Which will lead to a NB replacement. Which in my opine be a 2X3 from the E2 up to 737-8 size and then a oval 2X3X3 domestic people hauler.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:19 pm

Is Boeing finally ready to build a new aluminum 3-3 tube after 70 years of the 707 thing?
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:28 pm

In terms of proportion, I think the capacity range falls:
3-3, 25 rows to 40 rows, a nominal seating (densities may vary in actual use) of 150 to 240
2-2-2, 30 rows to 45 rows, nominal seating of 180 to 270
2-3-2, 30 rows to 50 rows, nominal seating of 210 to 350
by that method, 2-2-2 is the answer to the capacity they are targeting.
 
ILNFlyer
Posts: 540
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:34 pm

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:40 pm

Next thing you know they will be talking about a new smaller, lower weight wing for the defunct 787-3.
 
Etheereal
Posts: 374
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:44 am

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:42 pm

DenverTed wrote:
Is Boeing finally ready to build a new aluminum 3-3 tube after 70 years of the 707 thing?

Nope, they're gonna get a 707MAX, with reinforced wings, and two NEW GTF engines instead. :duck:
 
Noshow
Posts: 1781
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:54 pm

Or is this just PR content meant to block the headlines with "program chatter" when Mr. Muilenburg is in D.C.? Like those funny 767 plans the other day.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:55 pm

Strato2 wrote:
This is another nail to the NMA coffin. Like I've always said it will never be built. There's just no demand to justify the enormous investment nor the efficiency to be able to get two aisles with 7ab seating.


It has nothing to do...

I bet Boeing is trying to justify a business case to build NMA / FSA / NSA / Y1 or call it what you want to be able to produce a brand new aircraft at very low costs.

I bet it's just the NMA that has been morphed to something similar to the NMA.
I bet again that the FSA will not be a "standard aircraft".

The 737MAX tragedy has just proved in Boeing that they must continue to innovate (767- / 777- / 787 / NMA-FSA) more than ever. In the end it does not matter the money because the 737 MAX has proven that a simple re-engined could cost an additional 10 billion USD.

The FSA will be neither a 737MAX nor a 757 family and even less an A32Xneo family ...

My feeling tells me that it will also be a twin aisles!

To be honest I think that NMA-6X was not effiscient while the Strech NMA-7X yes

I bet again that FSA-6X will be better than the NMA-6X and FSA-7X will be a simple Strech so,
wings and tails will are smaller,
-it is a little smaller than the NMA in its characteristics hence the name FSA (future-SMALL-Aircraft) It does not necessarily mean "Small-Narrowbody" when you want to carry 210 seats in 2-class layout ,

The opposite does not make sense to me!
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2289
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:16 pm

I still see Boeing doing the NMA, as it is the most viable approach to move the NB platform to the new NSA. Watching the CS series, it has produced 90 since its 2016 introduction, with around 45 produced this year. That is less than 10% of a rate 50 aircraft like the 320 and 737. It seem difficult to introduce a new model that could be at rate 50 even 5 years after introduction, so orider cannibalization of the NB's is essential, demand for the existing models must be maintained.

A totally new production system is needed to take advantage of automation, CFRP, 3D printing, and digital architecture. If the NMA/NSA have a high proportion of common designed parts possibly in 2 or 3 sizes, the same system architecture, and similar construction wings / hull it would make production economical in the long term. Doing the NMA with this new production system for just above the A321 in performance would allow for this to reach rate 20 or higher before the NSA is introduced. The entire NMA/NSA fleet would be above the current 738. Below the 738 will be the E2 jets. The 738 would remain in production out 15 to 20 years in this approach, but tapering from rate 50 in 2025 to rate 20 in 2035.
 
benbeny
Posts: 240
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:44 pm

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:27 pm

Oykie wrote:
benbeny wrote:
Now, where's the "bet the company till you make it" of old Boeing?
They bet the company with B-17, B-29, B-47, B-52, 367-80, C-135 and 707, and 747. Last time I saw such a huge gamble was when they made 747. Maybe the bean counters has prevailed there, and the engineering team died from disgust. We need guys like Joe Sutter at the helm.



I would argue that Boeing risked the company with the development of the 787. the whole architecture, and production was revolutionized. The FSA/NMA will benefit from lessons learned.

I thought, besides CFRP, they have successfully made a great FBW architecture in 777, weren't they?
 
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cv990Coronado
Posts: 383
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:47 pm

Oykie wrote:
benbeny wrote:
Now, where's the "bet the company till you make it" of old Boeing?
They bet the company with B-17, B-29, B-47, B-52, 367-80, C-135 and 707, and 747. Last time I saw such a huge gamble was when they made 747. Maybe the bean counters has prevailed there, and the engineering team died from disgust. We need guys like Joe Sutter at the helm.


I think you need executives such as Bill Allen as well as engineers such as Joe Sutter. I think there was probably more integrity in Bill Allen and there is in the sum of all the current board members.
But the question could be asked whether the current Boeing is really Boeing after all and not really a reincarnated Mc Donnell Douglas.
SSC-707B727 737-741234SP757/762/3/772/WA300/10/319/2/1-342/3/6-880-DAM-VC10 TRD 111 Ju52-DC8/9/10/11-YS11-748-VCV DH4B L
 
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monomojo
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:59 pm

Even if Boeing started work on a 737 replacement right now, the earliest it would enter service is 2028 or 2029, and it would still take a few years to ramp up production to 737 replacement levels. The whole (conjectured) point of NMA was that it would prove the manufacturing processes needed to jumpstart NSA production while plugging a market hole that wasn't dependent on pushing 50 frames a month out of the gate to be profitable. That calculus hasn't changed. Wanting NSA before NMA won't get NSA in the air appreciably much faster than doing NMA first, and it likely either will make it more expensive to develop and purchase, or more conservative than it should be without NMA to absorb design risk.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:10 pm

I think that the way to go is not a clean sheet, not a B767GENX (although I see some potential in a B767NG with a major PIP preferablr from PW that PW can upsell yo the USAF, 8Y, Sky interior and KC46 flight deck.),

but a B757X, with the same fuselage as the B752 and B753, a KC46 flight deck, new CFRP wing, scaled up LEAP for 120-125 tons MTOW and 12-hour range, ULD capability, even if they have to have their own container standard.

Such a beast would burn less than 3 tons per hour, cover all TATL and a lot of TPAC, while burning almost half of a B787 and also appeal to the freighters.
 
Babyshark
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:16 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the way to go is not a clean sheet, not a B767GENX (although I see some potential in a B767NG with a major PIP preferablr from PW that PW can upsell yo the USAF, 8Y, Sky interior and KC46 flight deck.),

but a B757X, with the same fuselage as the B752 and B753, a KC46 flight deck, new CFRP wing, scaled up LEAP for 120-125 tons MTOW and 12-hour range, ULD capability, even if they have to have their own container standard.

Such a beast would burn less than 3 tons per hour, cover all TATL and a lot of TPAC, while burning almost half of a B787 and also appeal to the freighters.


757 fuselage is old and narrower than competition. Not FBW either.

And it is heavy, which is why the 737 beat it silly and 321 has 4x the orders.
 
Babyshark
Posts: 255
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:23 pm

AeroplaneFreak wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Quite to the contrary, I believe a clean sheet 737 replacement is the only way out for Boeing. But it will be an uphill struggle. The damage has already been dealt, Boeing will be on the backfoot for decades.


Wow, there really are some delusional people on here. I guess it's expected on an online forum but the last 12 months have really exposed the people with tinfoil hats.


Delusional is thinking the Max disaster is not a problem because it's Boeing. There were some around here who thought the grounding unnecessary or it would be short lived.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:32 pm

Babyshark wrote:

757 fuselage is old and narrower than competition. Not FBW either.

And it is heavy, which is why the 737 beat it silly and 321 has 4x the orders.


Is this verifiable?

How much lighter is a 10 foot fuselage barrel section of a MAX in comparison to a 10 foot fuselage barrel section of a 757.

Has aluminum non-composite fuselage technology advanced that much between these two aircraft? Not trying to put you on the spot ... but maybe there are some people on here that can provide insight.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:34 pm

Babyshark wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the way to go is not a clean sheet, not a B767GENX (although I see some potential in a B767NG with a major PIP preferablr from PW that PW can upsell yo the USAF, 8Y, Sky interior and KC46 flight deck.),

but a B757X, with the same fuselage as the B752 and B753, a KC46 flight deck, new CFRP wing, scaled up LEAP for 120-125 tons MTOW and 12-hour range, ULD capability, even if they have to have their own container standard.

Such a beast would burn less than 3 tons per hour, cover all TATL and a lot of TPAC, while burning almost half of a B787 and also appeal to the freighters.


757 fuselage is old and narrower than competition. Not FBW either.

And it is heavy, which is why the 737 beat it silly and 321 has 4x the orders.


What does the fuselage have to do with FBW?

The fuselage is not heavy, the B757 has a heavier wing structure, which can be made lighter with a new CFRP wing.
The B757 also had big engines designed for widebodies, so Leaps won't add any weight.

I think that the fuselage width is just fine, the only disadvantage being the lack of ULD capability.
For passenger comfort it is just fine.
Add a Sky interior and voila. It seems that pac worry more about the visual than the actual space available.

I think that a 2024 launch is possible if they grandfather the fuselage and undercarriage. Development would be limited to wings and engines.

I think that this is an obvious one and who cares about the tooling, tooling would have to be ordered anyway and isn't a major expense in the grand scheme of things.

The market is moving towards the A321 and Boeing is losing orders on a weekly basis. Sitting around and doing nothing is what's expensive.
 
Elementalism
Posts: 608
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:50 pm

The B757 was ahead of its time. The market has changed. The A321 is cleaning up so a B757 like aircraft is desired by the market. Also if the A321 was the true successor to the B757 why do airlines continue to hold onto their 757s and ask for its replacement?
 
747megatop
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:54 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Every new article full of rumors should get a new thread to make Boeing look as bad as possible.

Nobody needs an article full of rumors or multiple a.net threads to make B or A or for that matter any manufacturer look bad.

Boeing looked good based on..
1) 777 program a stupendous success.
2) 7E7(now called 787) launched with a record number of orders.

Boeing looked (& looks) bad because of
1) 350+ passengers dead on 2 separate MAX crashes because they got the basic design wrong with the FAA being in bed with them and just rubber stamping the certification.
2) B 787 grounding due to battery fires. A Boeing fan might be tempted to pin the blame on the Japanese supplier of the batteries...but no..the buck stops with Boeing IMO.
Note:- What next? A 777x grounding? Let's hope not.
3) Trash being delivered as part of new tanker airplanes to the Air Force - https://www.popularmechanics.com/milita ... sh-boeing/

Similarly; Airbus :

- Looks good based on stupendous success of their equally wonderful A320, A330 & A350 products.

- Looks bad because of premature end of their A340 & A380 programs. But they are not looking anywhere near being as bad as Boeing because Airbus hasn't had the distinction of having 2 of their aircraft
types being grounded with one type being associated with 350+ fatalities due to a design flaw.

Being a fan of one manufacturer shouldn't cloud judgment..facts speak for themselves and like i said "articles full of rumors" or a.net threads don't matter. BTW, "article full of rumors" may be because of your bias..those may be actual facts; something to keep in mind.

I am a fan of aviation (like all a.netters), a fan of great flying machines regardless of who manufactured them. Aviation is safe because of awesome companies & professionals who continuously strive to make things better...and i am a fan of especially Boeing, having worked there in the early 2000s to fulfill my childhood dream of working for them. And, last but not the least i will always be a fan of one particular type (my signature says it all).
BUT, I feel let down by Boeing now though (and many aviation professionals & enthusiasts should feel the same way) because they put market share & share prices before safety & lives..we see where that ended up. There is no excuse for doing that even if it meant that Boeing would have been number 2 to Airbus without a 737 MAX.
 
SurlyBonds
Posts: 406
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:58 pm

william wrote:
but the attention span of the public at large ia about a second. When the MAX returns to service, it will be a non story after a week. Six months later, "Max what?".


The experience of the Comet and DC-10 suggest otherwise: that deeply flawed designs are sticky in the public consciousness and, indeed, become part of the zeitgeist.

In the automobile space, people still remember the Ford Pinto, even though a lot of them have never actually seen a Pinto.

Certainly I see people on non-aviation blogs poking fun at the MAX all the time (and rightly so). I for one won't be flying on a MAX until they've proved themselves in actual service.
Last edited by SurlyBonds on Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:07 pm

Elementalism wrote:
The B757 was ahead of its time. The market has changed. The A321 is cleaning up so a B757 like aircraft is desired by the market. Also if the A321 was the true successor to the B757 why do airlines continue to hold onto their 757s and ask for its replacement?


Aside from the US3, the majority of other 757s still in service are freighters. Remind me who's been calling for a direct 757 replacement.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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msp747
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:21 pm

SurlyBonds wrote:
The experience of the Comet and DC-10 suggest otherwise: that deeply flawed designs are sticky in the public consciousness and, indeed, become part of the zeitgeist.

Maybe it stuck with some people, but the fact that the DC-10 flew for another 30 years after the grounding shows that the flying public moved on. I don't think NW would have kept those birds flying well into the 2000's if a majority of travelers refused to set foot on them. I think the end of the DC-10 had a lot more to do with the ETOPS and the move to twin engine aircraft than it does with the early design problems and MCD's handling of them.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:29 pm

Laws should be passed where the A320 and B737 are the last narrow bodies designed. That way Airbus can have the best plane forever and forever. Meanwhile A.nut can argue endlessly on what can be done with new airplanes that never get built.

It seems crazy that a site supposedly about aviation is so adverse to any new clean sheet designs.
 
airbazar
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:31 pm

Elementalism wrote:
The B757 was ahead of its time. The market has changed. The A321 is cleaning up so a B757 like aircraft is desired by the market. Also if the A321 was the true successor to the B757 why do airlines continue to hold onto their 757s and ask for its replacement?

No one is asking for a 757 replacement, in the context of medium/long haul missions which I believe is what this thread is about. The A321LR isn't exactly selling like hot cakes but its only viable as a niche member of a very large family. A 757 replacement would be its own family and a very niche one at that. That is why Boeing isn't doing it and no one can blame them for it. Not having an airplane in that category is the least of Boeing's problems.
I do agree that Boeing appears to have a huge gap between the 738 and the 788, but its really not that different from Airbus' gap between the A321 and the A339. And if both manufacturers have a similar gap I can only infer that is because there isn't enough demand for a brand new plane in that segment.
 
ODwyerPW
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:35 pm

raylee67 wrote:
And when Boeing confirms it will develop a clean sheet MAX replacement, all Airbus needs to do is to stretch the A220 to develop a 160-seat A220-500. The A220 will then effectively becomes the A318/A319/A320 "clean-sheet" replacement, while the A321NEO stays on with another stretch to make the A322NEO, which together will be the replacement of 757s.


So be it. at some point everyone needs to stop worrying about the competitor's response... and just move on.
learning never stops.
 
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msp747
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:52 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Laws should be passed where the A320 and B737 are the last narrow bodies designed. That way Airbus can have the best plane forever and forever. Meanwhile A.nut can argue endlessly on what can be done with new airplanes that never get built.

It seems crazy that a site supposedly about aviation is so adverse to any new clean sheet designs.

I'd argue the exact opposite is true on A.net. Everything is about clean sheet designs. I get it... people on here are aviation enthusiasts who want to see new designs. It's easy to do when you're spending someone else's money.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:57 pm

airbazar wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
The B757 was ahead of its time. The market has changed. The A321 is cleaning up so a B757 like aircraft is desired by the market. Also if the A321 was the true successor to the B757 why do airlines continue to hold onto their 757s and ask for its replacement?

No one is asking for a 757 replacement, in the context of medium/long haul missions which I believe is what this thread is about. The A321LR isn't exactly selling like hot cakes but its only viable as a niche member of a very large family. A 757 replacement would be its own family and a very niche one at that. That is why Boeing isn't doing it and no one can blame them for it. Not having an airplane in that category is the least of Boeing's problems.
I do agree that Boeing appears to have a huge gap between the 738 and the 788, but its really not that different from Airbus' gap between the A321 and the A339. And if both manufacturers have a similar gap I can only infer that is because there isn't enough demand for a brand new plane in that segment.


I beg to disagree.
The continuous flow of conversions from A320neo to A321neo suggests that there is a market and demand.
I also didn't see this initially, but conversions are coming one after the other so we need to accept this reality.

A B767 is too big for Leap engines, and yet a B753 with Leap engines can carry just as many pax as a B763, whether powered by PW 4000, CF6 ot GEnx.

The original B757 is a 3.5-4 tons per hour machine.
Thr problem was that narrowbody engines like the V2500 and CFM56 were too small for it, so it had to have variants of widebody engines.
But seeing how the Leap now fits on a 100 ton A320neo, the bridge to 120 tons is within reach.
That can tip the balance and I see real potential for the B753 more than the B752.
B753 operators are holding on to them because they have a need for it.

I think that DL and UA would each definitely order 100 or more of a B753-sized B757X with Leap engines. B6. and AA are obvious candidates.
In Europe, the big 3 groups would be obvious contenders, but who knows what LCC's like U2, FR and W6 would do if they can get their hands on them.

TK and QR are obvious customers, Flydubai can't be ruled out.

China brings huge potential as well. Japan would be an obvious target, as well as any other major Asian economy.
 
afgeneral
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:43 pm

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:02 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Shouldn't this be an easy task for boeing?

Make an aircraft the size of B737-800 and B757-200. But combined them into a single family.
And then let Embraer took over the 150 seat market with E195-E2.

And voila, you got a winner.


Boeing hasn't built a clean sheet airplane without running into years of delays and $10s of billions in overruns since the 777.

"Voila" sounds more like Toulouse
 
afgeneral
Posts: 136
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:08 pm

morrisond wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Is there any new mid size engine coming up that would make a step change cost improvement possible for a clean sheet small Boeing?
Could just a brand new (CFRP?) new small airframe with A220/A321neo-generation engines be cost competitive versus high rate production Airbuses?

If Boeing should end the MAX early how is this affecting their planned business case?


That's the problem and why NMA might still be done first as ultimate engine efficiency won't be as critical as it will be in more of a unique space.

The next gen NB engines that are a step change probably won't be available until about 2030 - lots of time to do NMA first and base NSA off of that.


They need a proper platform for current engines. MAX just doesn't cut it. Next gen engines can be 797 NEO or whatever.
 
Qf648
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:49 pm

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:13 pm

Isn’t the 757, a 737 fuselage, 767 front windows and a couple of rb211’s

Doesn’t sound innovative to me
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5089
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:21 pm

raylee67 wrote:
And when Boeing confirms it will develop a clean sheet MAX replacement, all Airbus needs to do is to stretch the A220 to develop a 160-seat A220-500. The A220 will then effectively becomes the A318/A319/A320 "clean-sheet" replacement, while the A321NEO stays on with another stretch to make the A322NEO, which together will be the replacement of 757s.

No matter what Boeing does Airbus will again come up with some warmed over design based on something Else they already build so they can keep the same systems installed and scaled for the airframe. They won't have any really new innovations to unveil.
 
SkyVoice
Posts: 416
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:24 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Laws should be passed where the A320 and B737 are the last narrow bodies designed. That way Airbus can have the best plane forever and forever. Meanwhile A.nut can argue endlessly on what can be done with new airplanes that never get built.

It seems crazy that a site supposedly about aviation is so adverse to any new clean sheet designs.


What's up with you, Jay, you got a swarm of bees up your pitot tube? This forum has always been populated with both dreamers and bean counters. I have dreams, too, but I guess I come down on the bean counter side, knowing that (most) airlines are businesses, and businesses are in business to make money. To that end, many early airliners were developed from military aircraft designs. In the USA, the Boeing StratoCruiser and the 707, and in the USSR, the Tupolev 104 and 114 were all developed from existing military aircraft. Military or civilian, designing new airplanes from existing ones saves a lot of $$$ on R&D, a much smaller amount than it takes to move a new aircraft from someone's bright idea to its first revenue flight.

On the other hand, if you keep stretching out the narrowbody technology, sooner or later you'll wind up with a DC-8!
"Tough times never last. Tough people do." - Dr. Robert H. Schuller
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:36 pm

Actually the 777 was well over budget. But ... there were wide spread rumors as it neared entry into service that it was also a better plane than Boeing was expecting. Another rumor, 777 over budget scared the board against another all new plane, and likely was responsible for all the out-sourcing of design and risk for the 787. I think both rumors were accurate. NMA rumor is that getting it down to the cost airlines are wanting to pay is the major slowdown. I suspect that too is accurate.
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musman9853
Posts: 961
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:52 pm

airbazar wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Why is this a surprise? Boeing has been trying to push the NMA for years. Years! And no one bought it.
Now we're supposed to find this to be newsworthy?


Not really.

United and Delta were tripping over each other to be launch customer ........ except they didn't know what it was.


Oh gee 2 airlines in the whole world MAY have been interested. Not enough to launch a clean sheet design.
The Boeing board never approved the NMA exactly because no one wanted to buy it. There's a huge difference between wanting it, and putting your money where your mouth is. I would be shocked if United and Delta are interested in being the only airlines paying for it.


the board didnt approve it because it never got to them. ATO was supposed to be offered in march, but the max crisis canceled that.
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