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mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:26 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Is there any way the 737-10 can be fitted with large enough tanks for A321XLR / 757-200 range?


The MTOW of the 737-10 will be around 90. The MTOW of the A321XLR about 101 t or more.

I have my doubts that the 737 will allow a MTOW near 100 t without a serious redesign.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:35 pm

Boeing screwed the pooch by not not buying out the CS when they had the chance. Instead they basically forced Bombardier to give it away to Airbus. In response, Boeing bought Embraer but it is not working.

The C-Series could have covered the Max 7 and Max 8 with a CS-500 and possibly 700. They could have then reapproached United with the CS, It would have got them back in with Delta. There was no telling the good will that it could have generated with the Canadian gov't and they could have PR'd a second FAL in the States to death.

That could have allowed a more focused approach to the MOM that wasn't so niche.

Boeing is suffering some bad juju due to karma being a fickle (you know what).
 
estorilm
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:43 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Is there any way the 737-10 can be fitted with large enough tanks for A321XLR / 757-200 range?


The MTOW of the 737-10 will be around 90. The MTOW of the A321XLR about 101 t or more.

I have my doubts that the 737 will allow a MTOW near 100 t without a serious redesign.

I believe the big issue is that over the longer routes that the XLR is optimized for, the (usually small) shortcomings of the older 737 design, wing size, fuselage, etc, start to add up over the span of 5000+mi.

However, no.. the cargo area of the 737 is pretty cramped and small as it is. I have my doubts as to the effectiveness of the telescoping gear configuration on the -10 as well. I'm sure it'll work, and reach certification requirements, however it doesn't seem ideal and I'm sure in poor weather / gusty winds at MTOW, the thing will be a bear on takeoff/landing. Adding another 10t to the design doesn't seem feasible.

I think it's a moot point, I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any sort of additional modifications to the MAX program at this point. At the time of the XLR announcement, Airbus already had extensive experience bumping up MTOW's across their entire lineup, as well as modifying the fuel systems of the A320 family through ACTs, the LR, etc (in addition to having far fewer structural limitations).
Last edited by estorilm on Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:43 pm

MRYapproach wrote:
As Henry Ford famously allegedly said:
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

FIFY...

In a.net's tradition of pedantry, I will point out there's no proof Ford ever said that. A HBR article ( https://hbr.org/2011/08/henry-ford-never-said-the-fast ) on the topic finds no evidence he ever said it, and the first cite in the literature is 2002. It is almost certainly an apocryphal quote. Clever, but apocryphal.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:58 pm

estorilm wrote:
I think it's a moot point, I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any sort of additional modifications to the MAX program at this point. At the time of the XLR announcement, Airbus already had extensive experience bumping up MTOW's across their entire lineup, as well as modifying the fuel systems of the A320 family through ACTs, the LR, etc (in addition to having far fewer structural limitations).

I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any plan that seriously undermines the MAX backlog, for example the an "all new 737MAX and 757 replacement" being discussed in this thread.

Sure, if we saw mass cancellations of MAX then Boeing would have to throw in the towel but so far we see no evidence of that, presumably because of the duopoly.

We'll have to see several years of shortfall in the book to build ratio for Boeing's management/shareholders to green-light anything that stomps on the MAX.

As above, one reason NMA makes sense is because it brings new manufacturing tech to the table without stomping on the MAX.

Unfortunately the MAX tragedy and a new BCA president may mean NMA gets iced, but time will tell on that.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:04 pm

Revelation wrote:
estorilm wrote:
I think it's a moot point, I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any sort of additional modifications to the MAX program at this point. At the time of the XLR announcement, Airbus already had extensive experience bumping up MTOW's across their entire lineup, as well as modifying the fuel systems of the A320 family through ACTs, the LR, etc (in addition to having far fewer structural limitations).

I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any plan that seriously undermines the MAX backlog, for example the an "all new 737MAX and 757 replacement" being discussed in this thread.

Sure, if we saw mass cancellations of MAX then Boeing would have to throw in the towel but so far we see no evidence of that, presumably because of the duopoly.

We'll have to see several years of shortfall in the book to build ratio for Boeing's management/shareholders to green-light anything that stomps on the MAX.

As above, one reason NMA makes sense is because it brings new manufacturing tech to the table without stomping on the MAX.

Unfortunately the MAX tragedy and a new BCA president may mean NMA gets iced, but time will tell on that.


Agreed - Good post - but if they don't do the NMA now (a 7 or 6W that can be reused for NSA) they will really be in trouble.

They need to get going and develop the tech and tools necessary to build the MAX replacement by the early 2030's.

They could do a 5W first with Boeing Brazil (FSA doesn't mean necessarily mean 6W it could be 5W) - but that would probably eat into the 737-8 space - not a good thing when that is the most competitive MAX model.
 
estorilm
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:19 pm

Revelation wrote:
estorilm wrote:
I think it's a moot point, I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any sort of additional modifications to the MAX program at this point. At the time of the XLR announcement, Airbus already had extensive experience bumping up MTOW's across their entire lineup, as well as modifying the fuel systems of the A320 family through ACTs, the LR, etc (in addition to having far fewer structural limitations).

I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any plan that seriously undermines the MAX backlog, for example the an "all new 737MAX and 757 replacement" being discussed in this thread.

Sure, if we saw mass cancellations of MAX then Boeing would have to throw in the towel but so far we see no evidence of that, presumably because of the duopoly.

We'll have to see several years of shortfall in the book to build ratio for Boeing's management/shareholders to green-light anything that stomps on the MAX.

As above, one reason NMA makes sense is because it brings new manufacturing tech to the table without stomping on the MAX.

Unfortunately the MAX tragedy and a new BCA president may mean NMA gets iced, but time will tell on that.

That's true - it's probably best to avoid talk of ANY modification or upgrade to the MAX program as a whole, since the backlog is dangerously long at this point and nothing else matters till it's back on track and customers are happy / finally operating their large investments.

I'm not so sure about the NMA (to any extent) as well, for similar reasons. It was only justifiable if they could capture sales from airlines retiring similar aircraft initially - they appear to have lost that advantage (by kicking the can so far down the road, and through complications and work-load on MAX). Some would buy it, but XLR will do for now, and a 737-replacement would sell exponentially more frames.

I do see your point about such an announcement stomping on the MAX. Unfortunately that situation is also something that really shot themselves in the foot - as the XLR sales would have happened anyways, however with FAR LESS of a MAX backlog if the MCAS thing had never happened, they'd be much better positioned to launch a new 737-replacement program without seriously impacting MAX sales. Now they have to wait. :shakehead:
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:08 pm

A major issue I see with launching NSA near-term (full scale EIS within the next ten years) is that is would share predominately the same structural architecture, the same engine architecture and the same systems architecture as the A320neo. But the frame would cost Boeing significantly more to design and build and they would need a pricing premium to recover that, which would be hard with a frame similar to the A320neo.

The one area Boeing could innovate is aerodynamics as the wing would be newer and better optimized for the operating weights and Boeing might be able to use folding wingtips to improve that even more. But that aero needs to be sufficiently better to command the pricing premium and Airbus would be able to (eventually) respond with their own new wing.

I expect Boeing hoped a small widebody NMA would find enough traction in the market for them to use it to lay the groundwork for NSA once the new systems and engine architectures come on-line in the late 2020s / early 2030s and that they could leverage this "de-risking" to get a jump on Airbus and their NRA (A320 family replacement). But it seems pretty clear NMA is now dead as the BoD will be far less willing to launch a program that does not have clear financial benefits attached to it. NMA does not have them, but NSA will, but only once the underlying technology (structural, propulsion and system) have advanced to the point that a new design will best make use of them, forcing Airbus to go that route, as well, rather than limp the A320 along as Boeing has done with the 737.

Boeing will have first-mover advantage when this time comes because as the majority player (even if a simple majority), Airbus will be inclined to continue to try and milk their success and with the knowledge that no matter how good NSA is, Boeing can't supply more than a simple majority of the market (just as the A320neo's success has still allowed MAX to sell extremely well). However, it will be enough to get the BoD behind NSA and launch it when the time is ready.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:20 pm

Boeing can not launch anything that takes away orders from the 787 without risking near term losses due to write offs of the deferred production costs. Same with the FSA and the MAX (-10 especially) back log.
So whatever comes next will only be launched after 2022 or even after 2024, depending on new orders over the next year, and an EIS 2028+.
Everything else would mean low cash flow and drop in stock value. Nothing any CEO will ever do when his Bonus is on the line. So Boeing has to sort out true MAX costs and 787 order book and production first before they can launch something that clearly will cannibalize both.
Customers can not jump to Airbus due to production capacity limitations but they can defer Boeing deliveries or transform them to a new model.
Imagine 1/3 of the Boeing back log suffers the same faith as the UA A350 order? Just pushed out to wait for something better? That would hurt a lot.
 
Oykie
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:21 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Is there any way the 737-10 can be fitted with large enough tanks for A321XLR / 757-200 range?


I have been asking myself the same question. The supply chain for the 737 cannot easily be replaced, and the ‘simplest’ way to take on the A321XLR would be to match range and MTOW. I have found out it is already at 92T MTOW whole being 2,8T lighter than the A321neo. That means the XLR has 6T MTOW difference to the MAX10 to match the payload capability of the XLR. Could that difference be closed somehow? :-)
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:21 pm

Oykie wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Is there any way the 737-10 can be fitted with large enough tanks for A321XLR / 757-200 range?


I have been asking myself the same question. The supply chain for the 737 cannot easily be replaced, and the ‘simplest’ way to take on the A321XLR would be to match range and MTOW. I have found out it is already at 92T MTOW whole being 2,8T lighter than the A321neo. That means the XLR has 6T MTOW difference to the MAX10 to match the payload capability of the XLR. Could that difference be closed somehow? :-)


How do you get 2.8 t difference between the 737-10 and the A321neo?

When I look at numbers. A321neo OEW 50.1 t

737-800 OEW 41,413 kg. 737-8 OEW 45,070 kg. difference 3,657 kg.

737-900ER OEW 44,677. The difference to a 737-9 should be about the same so, 44677 + 3657 = 48334 about 48, 3 t.

Difference between an A321neo and 737-9. 50.1 - 48.3 = 1.8 t. The 737-10 should be heavier than the 737-9.

So the difference in OEW between a 737-10 and an A321neo should be less than 1.8 t.
 
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Carlos01
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:54 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Boeing screwed the pooch by not not buying out the CS when they had the chance. Instead they basically forced Bombardier to give it away to Airbus. In response, Boeing bought Embraer but it is not working.

The C-Series could have covered the Max 7 and Max 8 with a CS-500 and possibly 700. They could have then reapproached United with the CS, It would have got them back in with Delta. There was no telling the good will that it could have generated with the Canadian gov't and they could have PR'd a second FAL in the States to death.

That could have allowed a more focused approach to the MOM that wasn't so niche.

Boeing is suffering some bad juju due to karma being a fickle (you know what).


Somehow all of it just fits. Boeing's lobbyists pushed through anything they could to get the regulators go easy on them on the dinosaured grandfathering approach. They lobbyed (=bribed) the politicians to push Bombardier against the wall because they were a threat. Both plans blew up in their faces like a perfect storm, this is a textbook example of FUBAR. Imagine if they had just bought the C-Series, done a clean-sheet "737" which would have its first flight in the coming months. Their books would be full, they would look cool and witty, they would print money like no tomorrow, and airbus would be shaking in their shoes.

But I guess short-term greed was worth it, well done!
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:13 pm

Revelation wrote:
I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any plan that seriously undermines the MAX backlog, for example the an "all new 737MAX and 757 replacement" being discussed in this thread.


I think that the probability that the MAX will deliver for a full decade is very low. I think perhaps your idea of "undermining the backlog" may not apply in this case.

Delivery from first to last (next generation still has a few unfilled orders)
10.7 years, B707
22.9 years, B727
20.6 years, B737 original (-100 & -200)
15.2 years, B737 classic (-300 through -500)
22.0 years, B737 next generation (-600 through -900ER)
19.9 years, B757


======================
In 1988 Boeing was selling two narrowbody jets (the last B727 delivered in 1984)
B757-200=255,000 lbf MTOW | 3,915 nmi
B737-300=138,500 lbf MTOW | 2,255 nmi
It seems to me that we can refer to the A320 as a middle of the market jet.
A320=172,000 lbf MTOW |3,100 nmi
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:28 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
10.7 years, B707


ISTM the 707 was produced for longer than 10.7 years. First commercial flight of a series -100 was Pan Am in 1958. The first -320 first flew for Pan Am in 1959. I think commercial variants were last produced in up to 1978, military until 1994. Excluding military, 20 years is a more realistic number.

Beech
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:00 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any plan that seriously undermines the MAX backlog, for example the an "all new 737MAX and 757 replacement" being discussed in this thread.

I think that the probability that the MAX will deliver for a full decade is very low.

I doubt Boeing management or share holders share your point of view. We've see IAG place an LOI even as the crisis continues. IMO we would have to see large percentage cancellations of the existing backlog before Boeing would risk threatening the remainder of the backlog by announcing a replacement. I think we'll all have a better perspective two or three years from now. Till then IMO it'd be foolish to make an assumption that MAX production will last less than 10 years.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Oykie
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:31 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Oykie wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Is there any way the 737-10 can be fitted with large enough tanks for A321XLR / 757-200 range?


I have been asking myself the same question. The supply chain for the 737 cannot easily be replaced, and the ‘simplest’ way to take on the A321XLR would be to match range and MTOW. I have found out it is already at 92T MTOW whole being 2,8T lighter than the A321neo. That means the XLR has 6T MTOW difference to the MAX10 to match the payload capability of the XLR. Could that difference be closed somehow? :-)


How do you get 2.8 t difference between the 737-10 and the A321neo?

When I look at numbers. A321neo OEW 50.1 t

737-800 OEW 41,413 kg. 737-8 OEW 45,070 kg. difference 3,657 kg.

737-900ER OEW 44,677. The difference to a 737-9 should be about the same so, 44677 + 3657 = 48334 about 48, 3 t.

Difference between an A321neo and 737-9. 50.1 - 48.3 = 1.8 t. The 737-10 should be heavier than the 737-9.

So the difference in OEW between a 737-10 and an A321neo should be less than 1.8 t.


My number is from this website: http://www.b737.org.uk/737max10.htm
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
riptide120
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:39 pm

Revelation wrote:
estorilm wrote:
I think it's a moot point, I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any sort of additional modifications to the MAX program at this point. At the time of the XLR announcement, Airbus already had extensive experience bumping up MTOW's across their entire lineup, as well as modifying the fuel systems of the A320 family through ACTs, the LR, etc (in addition to having far fewer structural limitations).

I see zero chance any management/shareholders would green-light any plan that seriously undermines the MAX backlog, for example the an "all new 737MAX and 757 replacement" being discussed in this thread.

Sure, if we saw mass cancellations of MAX then Boeing would have to throw in the towel but so far we see no evidence of that, presumably because of the duopoly.

We'll have to see several years of shortfall in the book to build ratio for Boeing's management/shareholders to green-light anything that stomps on the MAX.

As above, one reason NMA makes sense is because it brings new manufacturing tech to the table without stomping on the MAX.

Unfortunately the MAX tragedy and a new BCA president may mean NMA gets iced, but time will tell on that.


Is there any way Boeing could start NSA development, but keep it secret (as to not jeopardize MAX backlog)? Or would this be too difficult to pull off?
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:04 pm

riptide120 wrote:
Is there any way Boeing could start NSA development, but keep it secret (as to not jeopardize MAX backlog)? Or would this be too difficult to pull off?


Boeing has been working on NSA/FSA/"the 737 replacement" for around two decades under Project Yellowstone. They were publicly talking about it a decade ago before the A320neo sent them down the MAX route due to Time-to-Market issues. And I am sure major 737 operators are working with Boeing defining the basic specifications of the airframe (payload/range, etc.). So it's not really a secret Boeing is working on it. :)
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 1:58 am

Wouldn't it make more sense to develop assembly lines that could produce more than one aircraft type? It seems rather inefficient to have separate assembly lines for low volume aircraft like the 747 and 767. With digital tracking of tools and material it shouldn't be that complicated. And I think one product cannibalizing another is overblown around here. It's still a Boeing that's being sold.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:02 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Wouldn't it make more sense to develop assembly lines that could produce more than one aircraft type?


Even the "moving" assembly lines have tooling jigs and such that are unique to each model. So you'd need a very large FAL floorspace to allow the different jigs to be moved into and out of position depending on the model being produced. Also, assembly is generally a fixed process so easier to have separate workforces trained for each family's process then trying to have them train for multiple ones and keep them all straight.

As such, I expect separate FALs are cheaper to build and operate and the quality of work is higher in a single-family FAL.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:47 am

Stitch wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Wouldn't it make more sense to develop assembly lines that could produce more than one aircraft type?


Even the "moving" assembly lines have tooling jigs and such that are unique to each model. So you'd need a very large FAL floorspace to allow the different jigs to be moved into and out of position depending on the model being produced. Also, assembly is generally a fixed process so easier to have separate workforces trained for each family's process then trying to have them train for multiple ones and keep them all straight.

As such, I expect separate FALs are cheaper to build and operate and the quality of work is higher in a single-family FAL.

Exactly. Producing aircraft is not like making iPhones. The latter you can have one line produce multiple models by loading different parts into the pick and place machines and loading different control software. You can't do that with aircraft.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:22 am

Stitch wrote:
A major issue I see with launching NSA near-term (full scale EIS within the next ten years) is that is would share predominately the same structural architecture, the same engine architecture and the same systems architecture as the A320neo. But the frame would cost Boeing significantly more to design and build and they would need a pricing premium to recover that, which would be hard with a frame similar to the A320neo.

The one area Boeing could innovate is aerodynamics as the wing would be newer and better optimized for the operating weights and Boeing might be able to use folding wingtips to improve that even more. But that aero needs to be sufficiently better to command the pricing premium and Airbus would be able to (eventually) respond with their own new wing.

I expect Boeing hoped a small widebody NMA would find enough traction in the market for them to use it to lay the groundwork for NSA once the new systems and engine architectures come on-line in the late 2020s / early 2030s and that they could leverage this "de-risking" to get a jump on Airbus and their NRA (A320 family replacement). But it seems pretty clear NMA is now dead as the BoD will be far less willing to launch a program that does not have clear financial benefits attached to it. NMA does not have them, but NSA will, but only once the underlying technology (structural, propulsion and system) have advanced to the point that a new design will best make use of them, forcing Airbus to go that route, as well, rather than limp the A320 along as Boeing has done with the 737.

Boeing will have first-mover advantage when this time comes because as the majority player (even if a simple majority), Airbus will be inclined to continue to try and milk their success and with the knowledge that no matter how good NSA is, Boeing can't supply more than a simple majority of the market (just as the A320neo's success has still allowed MAX to sell extremely well). However, it will be enough to get the BoD behind NSA and launch it when the time is ready.


In theory Airbus can always force the hand of Boeing by simply doing a re-winged A320. And if you look at all those things they have been working on lately (from the CFRP wingbox, laminar flow wings and those moving winglets) it is imho likely that this step will come. There is a lot on unused developments in the shelf at Airbus at the moment. And that is not due to Boeing, but more to the question where you would build the new wings, (aka Brexit)
 
Andy33
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:03 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Wouldn't it make more sense to develop assembly lines that could produce more than one aircraft type? It seems rather inefficient to have separate assembly lines for low volume aircraft like the 747 and 767. With digital tracking of tools and material it shouldn't be that complicated. And I think one product cannibalizing another is overblown around here. It's still a Boeing that's being sold.


In the example you give, while Boeing still has a reasonable number of 767 freighters and tankers to be delivered, and is open to more orders, the 747 has a grand total of 17 planes to be delivered, all freighters. We have had a thread discussing the closure of production lines for key 747 parts at suppliers, and the reuse of space and equipment to make other products. It was and is a reasonable assumption that Boeing has effectively given up hope of significant 748F orders in the future, as otherwise they would have encouraged their suppliers to keep lines open, or stockpiled lots and lots of components, not just enough to satisfy the current order book. So it wouldn't be worthwhile to incur extra expense on the remaining 748F production - by the time things are organised, the last planes will be built..
So what low-demand models could in fact be built on multi-type aircraft production lines?
Airbus of course managed to produce A330 and A340 models on the same line, but Boeing has managed its product development differently.
Once the residual 77W orders are completed by the end of 2020, there will be:
738 military models
767 military and freighters
777F
a handful of 748F - another 6 or so off the order book will be completed in 2020.
and the major passenger products
737MAX
778 and 779
787
plus whatever is in the development pipeline, that won't be in serious production before 2025 at least.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:50 am

Revelation wrote:
MAX is something like 16% more efficient than NG

Meh, ain't more efficient than a tricycle currently...

Man what a sh!t program. :(
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:14 am

Boeing does not need a NMA, the train has anyway left with airlines ordering the A321XLR, they need a a competitive frame to compete with the A320 family.

The FAA Boeing partnership, should also clean up their act. I know that the NG has a good safety record, but is that a reason to collect exemptions and keep them model after model?

Starting with the 16 G rule on seats and the floor the seats are fixed to. Yes I assume the 737MAX will have seats that fulfill that rule, but the floor does not. Either this rule is sensible, than it should be enforced for a new model of the 737, or it is not a sensible rule, than nobody should be forced to comply to it.
We all know, why this rule is not enforced on the 737, it will make the floor heavier and will eat up the weight advantage compared to A320 family frames.

EICAS, Again we see exemptions. The man machine interface of the 737 in regards to engine-indicating and crew-alerting system, does not fulfill the current rules. The FAA let Boeing get away with the need to change, because Boeing declared it would cost 10 billion USD to comply, that includes lost sales.
Yes, Southwest would scream if they would need to train their pilots between the NG and MAX, but is that really an argument?

The manual trim hand wheel. Is it really acceptable that it does not work during part of the flight envelope? It is like giving pilots in fighter jets parachutes, reminding them that they would not work most of the time, but it would not matter because they would be needed very seldon.

We can go to the un- or not fully protected control wires and surly find some other things that are run on exemptions.

Boeing should have no problem adding EICAS. Is done in the P-8 (strange that the military does not accept the flawed system on the civilian market)
Boeing should not have any problem of designing a workable handwheel, making the floor 16G proof and fixing the other things that do not comply to today's rules.

If Boeing does not want to go to an all out new NSA, Boeing could surly design a frame, that they could build on the current lines. Optimised fuselage, AL-LI perhaps, empennage CFRP. New wing, perhaps CFRP. MLG that allows big engines, a FBW and so on. A lot of the stuff they can copy from more modern frames in house. A frame that would bypass the A320 family, or at least match it. There they could have models challenging the A321 in it's different versions.
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:16 pm

Andy33 wrote:
Airbus of course managed to produce A330 and A340 models on the same line, but Boeing has managed its product development differently.

The A330-200/-300 & A340-200/-300 were basically the same aircraft with different engines and some minimal cockpit/avionics differences.
The wings were plumbed for the A340 4-engine set-up, the position of the inner engines on the A340 is the same as on the A330, etc. That's why Airbus was capable of assembling them on the same line.
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:32 pm

seahawk wrote:
In theory Airbus can always force the hand of Boeing by simply doing a re-winged A320. And if you look at all those things they have been working on lately (from the CFRP wingbox, laminar flow wings and those moving winglets) it is imho likely that this step will come. There is a lot on unused developments in the shelf at Airbus at the moment. And that is not due to Boeing, but more to the question where you would build the new wings, (aka Brexit)

You may think it likely, but Airbus CEO's recent comments are about how his biggest problem is how to monetize his massive A320 backlog and not about how to improve the A320. To be honest I'm not sure why we're not reading more about reuse of the A380 halls at TLS or addition of FALs somewhere else to crank up A320 production rate, rather than all the various ideas for how to improve the A320.
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:48 pm

I think Hangar 245 in Hamburg showed where they are heading but also the increased flexibility and adaptability of the new assembly lines.

And improving the A320 is not needed at the moment, much less do they need to talk about it, but still they have a working full CFRP wingbox ready and other studies are ongoing.
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:17 pm

I think there is a need to keep innovating so you are not caught out. Clearly at this point Boeing are not releasing a new plane in the time line they had originally suggested. There are only so many resources to work on projects. In a way I am surprised that the manufacturers don't just hurry up winding down production of a frame so they can focus on the next thing for the company. But I do not know anything about the intricacies of building planes. It is said that completion spurs innovation, are we seeing an example of where capitalism inhibits innovation. Like all things they are often more complicated than people with an ideology like to suggest.
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:26 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Boeing screwed the pooch by not not buying out the CS when they had the chance. Instead they basically forced Bombardier to give it away to Airbus. In response, Boeing bought Embraer but it is not working.

The C-Series could have covered the Max 7 and Max 8 with a CS-500 and possibly 700. They could have then reapproached United with the CS, It would have got them back in with Delta. There was no telling the good will that it could have generated with the Canadian gov't and they could have PR'd a second FAL in the States to death.

That could have allowed a more focused approach to the MOM that wasn't so niche.

Boeing is suffering some bad juju due to karma being a fickle (you know what).


Why would Boeing buy the CS? The avionics on the CS is closer to Airbus than Boeing. And if Airbus wants the CS to have the same type of training for as the rest of the Airbus products its going to require a significant investment.
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:45 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Boeing should have no problem adding EICAS. Is done in the P-8 (strange that the military does not accept the flawed system on the civilian market)


I had no idea - and yet it still retains the "six pack" master caution lights.

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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:55 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
MAX is something like 16% more efficient than NG

Meh, ain't more efficient than a tricycle currently...

Man what a sh!t program. :(

Actually, they are currently burning 100% less fuel than the NG currently.
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
Till then IMO it'd be foolish to make an assumption that MAX production will last less than 10 years.


Current backlog of 4544 unfilled MAX order / 579 B737s delivered in 2018 = 7.85 years less the jets awaiting delivery.

I admit that I am being extremely negative about future orders when I say 10 years. But my negativity is partly based on the reluctance of new airlines that don't already own B737s to purchase the MAX (with VietJet Air the major exception).

But it sure looks like the production run will be much less time than the 15.2 years (28. Nov. 1984 through 25. Feb. 2000) that the B737 classic (-300, -400, -500 variants) or 1988 jets was delivered. The B737 classic production run was relatively short becasue of competition with the A320 and A321 which spurred on Next Generation development
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:54 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Till then IMO it'd be foolish to make an assumption that MAX production will last less than 10 years.


Current backlog of 4544 unfilled MAX order / 579 B737s delivered in 2018 = 7.85 years less the jets awaiting delivery.

I admit that I am being extremely negative about future orders when I say 10 years. But my negativity is partly based on the reluctance of new airlines that don't already own B737s to purchase the MAX (with VietJet Air the major exception).

But it sure looks like the production run will be much less time than the 15.2 years (28. Nov. 1984 through 25. Feb. 2000) that the B737 classic (-300, -400, -500 variants) or 1988 jets was delivered. The B737 classic production run was relatively short becasue of competition with the A320 and A321 which spurred on Next Generation development

First MAX rolled out in Feb 2018, seems a cinch to be in production Feb 2028.

MAX will get more orders. WN, FR and others have come no where near ordering enough frames to turn over their fleets, IAG has the LOI for 200, the MAX-10 hasn't entered service and if it performs as expected it should get lots of interest. Airbus's great run of form leaves some of these operators not much chance to move to Airbus even if they wanted to.

As I wrote, we shall know more in 2-3 years once RTS has been reached and the after shock of the MAX's two tragedies has been processed by both the airlines and their customers.
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:14 am

Revelation wrote:
and the after shock of the MAX's two tragedies has been processed by both the airlines and their customers.

Assuming of course that no further ones (or even near-misses) occur....
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:08 am

mjoelnir wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Is there any way the 737-10 can be fitted with large enough tanks for A321XLR / 757-200 range?

The MTOW of the 737-10 will be around 90. The MTOW of the A321XLR about 101 t or more.
I have my doubts that the 737 will allow a MTOW near 100 t without a serious redesign.

The original B737-100 (30 jets sold) had a MTOW of 50 tonnes, which shows you how serious redesigns have been up until now.

The original A320 had a MTOW of 78 tonnes and can be considered a middle of the market jet between the two single aisle jets offered by Boeing at the time: B737-300 (MTOW of 63 tonnes) and the B757-200 (MTOW of 115.7 tonnes). Obviously that phrase was not used in the 1980s.
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:46 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
and the after shock of the MAX's two tragedies has been processed by both the airlines and their customers.

Assuming of course that no further ones (or even near-misses) occur....

And assuming of course that there are no Airbus crashes that would put the reliability of the entire aviation sector in doubt.

Other than these things, there is an optimism bias that will kick in and it'll be business as usual, same as after all the various other tragedies in the past.

Heck, people are willing to get on to airplanes after it's been demonstrated that a single pilot having a mental breakdown can fly the plane into a mountain and kill them all.
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:59 pm

In https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardabo ... 6c1ad639e8 the man A.net loves to hate, Richard Aboulafia, makes some cogent points about why Boeing MUST create a product for the Middle of the Market.

Basically, it's the only market segment that is getting significant sales attention from the airlines.

Well, you say, Boeing has already lost the market?

It’s clear that Boeing has lost the race, at least for now. But they can’t afford to declare defeat and walk away. Like any example of a successful product driving a successful customer strategy (and vice versa), mid-market demand will grow, particularly as the range of new mid-size jets improves with better engine technology and other enhancements.

The reasons are clear: more revenue, less expense. Airline customers will pay more to fly directly to where they want to go, and it costs less for airlines to fly them directly – a direct flight involves half as many takeoffs and landings as a flight that includes a plane change at a hub
(which also makes them more eco-friendly). Many of United’s A321XLRs will fly transatlantic routes. If the hub-oriented A380 was the dumbest jetliner product launch ever, the A321neo was the smartest.

Some may note he is giving Airbus a back-handed compliment in the last sentence.

He goes on to discuss NMA vs FSA vs doing nothing. He seems to be favoring FSA but is concerned that Boeing will do nothing which will help the balance sheet in the short term but give it nothing of interest to sell in the mid to long term.

I think the article is well written and is backed up with numbers and charts, so I recommend people get over whatever hatred they may have for the man and read the article, it's a good read.
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:21 pm

Revelation wrote:
He goes on to discuss NMA vs FSA vs doing nothing. He seems to be favoring FSA but is concerned that Boeing will do nothing which will help the balance sheet in the short term but give it nothing of interest to sell in the mid to long term.
...


It is more difficult to build a capable small size aircraft than building a medium-size aircraft. Obviously Boeing will pick the latter. More seats, less CASM, you know the drill.

Also, they have to realize there is no money to be made in the VLA segment. With A380 withdrawal, Boeing may be feeling "we have arrived". At this point how many copies 77X will sell is less important, and to stop spending resources of any kind on the project is more important.
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:35 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
He goes on to discuss NMA vs FSA vs doing nothing. He seems to be favoring FSA but is concerned that Boeing will do nothing which will help the balance sheet in the short term but give it nothing of interest to sell in the mid to long term.

It is more difficult to build a capable small size aircraft than building a medium-size aircraft. Obviously Boeing will pick the latter. More seats, less CASM, you know the drill.

Also, they have to realize there is no money to be made in the VLA segment. With A380 withdrawal, Boeing may be feeling "we have arrived". At this point how many copies 77X will sell is less important, and to stop spending resources of any kind on the project is more important.

I think UA's order for 50 A321XLR is a good proof point that the A321 has won the 757 size segment and Boeing will need to go to the 762/763 size category to find a market.

If they try to compete head on with A321, Airbus will win on price and compatibility. If they go bigger, Airbus will have to invest to follow and still have a price advantage but Boeing can address that to a reasonable degree with new tech, growth potential, and 787 compatibility.
Last edited by Revelation on Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:39 pm

Revelation wrote:
In https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardabo ... 6c1ad639e8 the man A.net loves to hate, Richard Aboulafia, makes some cogent points about why Boeing MUST create a product for the Middle of the Market.

Basically, it's the only market segment that is getting significant sales attention from the airlines.

Well, you say, Boeing has already lost the market?

It’s clear that Boeing has lost the race, at least for now. But they can’t afford to declare defeat and walk away. Like any example of a successful product driving a successful customer strategy (and vice versa), mid-market demand will grow, particularly as the range of new mid-size jets improves with better engine technology and other enhancements.

The reasons are clear: more revenue, less expense. Airline customers will pay more to fly directly to where they want to go, and it costs less for airlines to fly them directly – a direct flight involves half as many takeoffs and landings as a flight that includes a plane change at a hub
(which also makes them more eco-friendly). Many of United’s A321XLRs will fly transatlantic routes. If the hub-oriented A380 was the dumbest jetliner product launch ever, the A321neo was the smartest.

Some may note he is giving Airbus a back-handed compliment in the last sentence.

He goes on to discuss NMA vs FSA vs doing nothing. He seems to be favoring FSA but is concerned that Boeing will do nothing which will help the balance sheet in the short term but give it nothing of interest to sell in the mid to long term.

I think the article is well written and is backed up with numbers and charts, so I recommend people get over whatever hatred they may have for the man and read the article, it's a good read.


Good article. Thx for sharing.
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:48 pm

Revelation wrote:
In https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardabo ... 6c1ad639e8 the man A.net loves to hate, Richard Aboulafia, makes some cogent points about why Boeing MUST create a product for the Middle of the Market.

Basically, it's the only market segment that is getting significant sales attention from the airlines.


An interesting article and another nail in the coffin of NMA at the lower end of the segment. Is there enough market left at the upper end to justify an all-new frame?

Checklist787 wrote:
I would not comment here until Boeing really reveals the FSA concept.


Your arms must be getting tired swimming against an overwhelming tide.

Richard Aboulafia says...
One alternative would be a Future Small Aircraft (FSA), a clean-sheet family of new single aisle jets beginning with the largest model. This could be in the 757 size and range class.
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:09 pm

scbriml wrote:
An interesting article and another nail in the coffin of NMA at the lower end of the segment. Is there enough market left at the upper end to justify an all-new frame?

Another good question: Is there enough market left at the 757/A321 size to take on a dominant, entrenched competitor with a significant price advantage?

We're at the point where all three of the US Big 3 are A321neo customers: how can Boeing expect to sell them FSAs at a good enough price to make any money?
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:19 pm

I think it becomes pretty clear, that we will not see a NMA from Boeing. Airbus has sold 3201 A321neo and only 260 have already been delivered. Here it is possible to talk about an order frenzy. That will be a massive additional lift, as only few of those frames will be replace like with like.
In a few years all 757 and many 767 used domestically or for medium haul will be replaced. When a bigger frame is really needed, usually for freight, we will see a A330 or 787 being used.
The space for a small, double aisle, no cargo frame, is been eaten up by the A321neo line up, but also the 737-10 pushes into that market.

Boeing can bring the NMA and watch it flop. There will be sales, but enough for a clean sheet new development?

The best way out would be a new narrow body for Boeing. Designed to fit current production lines or methods. Starting with the biggest model same size as the A321 or bigger, and working down. Using an AL-LI (or standard AL) fuselage, CFRP empennage and wing. MLG to fit current LEAP 1A with expansion possibilities. FBW and the possibility for containers.
No big leap, but a serious competition to the A321.

I agree with the Forbes article, that Boeing will just try to wait it out. To much invested in the 737. Playing second fiddle to Airbus in narrow bodies the next decades.
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:22 pm

Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
He goes on to discuss NMA vs FSA vs doing nothing. He seems to be favoring FSA but is concerned that Boeing will do nothing which will help the balance sheet in the short term but give it nothing of interest to sell in the mid to long term.

It is more difficult to build a capable small size aircraft than building a medium-size aircraft. Obviously Boeing will pick the latter. More seats, less CASM, you know the drill.

Also, they have to realize there is no money to be made in the VLA segment. With A380 withdrawal, Boeing may be feeling "we have arrived". At this point how many copies 77X will sell is less important, and to stop spending resources of any kind on the project is more important.

I think UA's order for 50 A321XLR is a good proof point that the A321 has won the 757 size segment and Boeing will need to go to the 762/763 size category to find a market.

If they try to compete head on with A321, Airbus will win on price and compatibility. If they go bigger, Airbus will have to invest to follow and still have a price advantage but Boeing can address that to a reasonable degree with new tech, growth potential, and 787 compatibility.


A321 will hit its design limits pretty soon. If Boeing plays its cards correctly it can regain its NB market share. Both A&B need fresh investments/clean-sheet design in this segment. Boeing can use this opportunity and invest right away and get a heads up.
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:41 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
It is more difficult to build a capable small size aircraft than building a medium-size aircraft. Obviously Boeing will pick the latter. More seats, less CASM, you know the drill.

Also, they have to realize there is no money to be made in the VLA segment. With A380 withdrawal, Boeing may be feeling "we have arrived". At this point how many copies 77X will sell is less important, and to stop spending resources of any kind on the project is more important.

I think UA's order for 50 A321XLR is a good proof point that the A321 has won the 757 size segment and Boeing will need to go to the 762/763 size category to find a market.

If they try to compete head on with A321, Airbus will win on price and compatibility. If they go bigger, Airbus will have to invest to follow and still have a price advantage but Boeing can address that to a reasonable degree with new tech, growth potential, and 787 compatibility.


A321 will hit its design limits pretty soon. If Boeing plays its cards correctly it can regain its NB market share. Both A&B need fresh investments/clean-sheet design in this segment. Boeing can use this opportunity and invest right away and get a heads up.
ummm so when exactly do they hit their limit re design? Before or after that massive backlog of 3000 A321 get delivered?

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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:48 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
In a few years all 757 and many 767 used domestically or for medium haul will be replaced.


A lot of people point out this fact. There are 235 B757s flying for Delta/United/American and about 673 active ones worldwide, but the majority are cargo jets today. In modern economics the replacement value for domestic operations for a jet is a very tiny portion of the entire sales market. Only 11% of the MAX jets were ordered by 4 domestic airlines. A total of 69.6% of the B757 orders were placed in North America. I think that while it is a true statement it probably is not a major factor in Boeing's thinking. What they really care about is what will they buying in Asia over the next two decades.

Average age in years - number
B757
21.70 74 United
22.30 127 Delta Airlines
19.90 34 American
B767
22.20 54 United
22.30 77 Delta Airlines
20.20 21 American
 
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
He goes on to discuss NMA vs FSA vs doing nothing. He seems to be favoring FSA but is concerned that Boeing will do nothing which will help the balance sheet in the short term but give it nothing of interest to sell in the mid to long term.

It is more difficult to build a capable small size aircraft than building a medium-size aircraft. Obviously Boeing will pick the latter. More seats, less CASM, you know the drill.

Also, they have to realize there is no money to be made in the VLA segment. With A380 withdrawal, Boeing may be feeling "we have arrived". At this point how many copies 77X will sell is less important, and to stop spending resources of any kind on the project is more important.

I think UA's order for 50 A321XLR is a good proof point that the A321 has won the 757 size segment and Boeing will need to go to the 762/763 size category to find a market.

If they try to compete head on with A321, Airbus will win on price and compatibility. If they go bigger, Airbus will have to invest to follow and still have a price advantage but Boeing can address that to a reasonable degree with new tech, growth potential, and 787 compatibility.


Thanks for the link to the article. I do have a reservation around his characterisation of the market segments.
I personally don't believe that the runaway success of the A321NEO is clear evidence that "NMA space is where the growth is".
Out of the 3 200 A321NEO sold, only 400 are XLR variants that can be said to sit at the bottom of NMA space.
The rest are cooking A321NEO's with a real world capacity and range well below that of the 757.
Why do I think this is important?
Because I believe that NMA is less a gap in the market, and more just a gap, full stop.
I believe it is a structural characteristic of the market between narrowbodys and widebodys that won't disappear.
I have always thought it was folly for Boeing to launch a dedicated all new model at the space.

So the only logic left is to "stretch" the narrowbodys into this space IMO.
The 737 won't go there, though - it struggles to be competitive in cooking A321NEO space.
All of which makes the A320NEO more appealing overall as a family.

The article linked upthread by Scrimbl was interesting.
No surprise that Boeing are floating FSA in front of airlines.
I bet Airbus are too - that's how they obtain market intelligence.
What fascinated me was the reasons attributed to Boeing - overordering by lessors and key airline customers.
Those are not good messages for the MAX IMO.

It has been pointed out that the MAX backlog is 4 500 aircraft, but it isn't really.
400 of those have already been built and parked up
The MAX will secure more orders, that I don't doubt. I have confidence that the IAG LOI will be realised, for example.
The worry I think is how many conversions or cancellations we might see, facilitated by Boeing being in breach of contract terms now.
we have already seen both outright cancellations and conversions to 787.
The 737 MAX backlog might not be as resilient as it might appear.
That's the context I think the "overordering by lessors and key airline customers" might be considered in.

FSA might not sound too adventurous, but properly executed, Boeing could do to the NEO what the NEO has done to the MAX, by giving it the flexibility to have bigger diameter engines and longer fuselages - e.g. longer landing gear, wider aisle, potential for folding wingtips.
A strategy of launching an initial FSA model that is, say, a tiny bit bigger than the A321, and thus slightly differentiated is a starting point, and I think would lead to volumes that NMA will never see.
This could be followed by a bigger model going further into NMA space than the A320NEO family is able to go.
The 737-8 could be left intact for now - it is easily the most popular MAX, and eventually replaced by a smaller FSA model at a time that is convenient to Boeing

This FSA would ultimately achieve the "commoditisation" that you rightly characterised some time ago, and would put the monkey back on Airbus.
Airbus would then have the choice of
a) the NEO becoming the new MAX
b) launching a new product

Just thoughts.
But I think there is a strategy route through for Boeing that can move them back onto the front foot.

Rgds
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9396
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:09 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
It is more difficult to build a capable small size aircraft than building a medium-size aircraft. Obviously Boeing will pick the latter. More seats, less CASM, you know the drill.

Also, they have to realize there is no money to be made in the VLA segment. With A380 withdrawal, Boeing may be feeling "we have arrived". At this point how many copies 77X will sell is less important, and to stop spending resources of any kind on the project is more important.

I think UA's order for 50 A321XLR is a good proof point that the A321 has won the 757 size segment and Boeing will need to go to the 762/763 size category to find a market.

If they try to compete head on with A321, Airbus will win on price and compatibility. If they go bigger, Airbus will have to invest to follow and still have a price advantage but Boeing can address that to a reasonable degree with new tech, growth potential, and 787 compatibility.


A321 will hit its design limits pretty soon. If Boeing plays its cards correctly it can regain its NB market share. Both A&B need fresh investments/clean-sheet design in this segment. Boeing can use this opportunity and invest right away and get a heads up.


So what, as long as it has no real competition and sells like hot cakes Airbus can sit and watch Boeing scramble or not.

We have an absolut down year for aircraft orders and the A320neo added 242 and the A321neo added 440 frames already. Most of the added A321neo are XLR.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9396
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:41 pm

astuteman wrote:
Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
It is more difficult to build a capable small size aircraft than building a medium-size aircraft. Obviously Boeing will pick the latter. More seats, less CASM, you know the drill.

Also, they have to realize there is no money to be made in the VLA segment. With A380 withdrawal, Boeing may be feeling "we have arrived". At this point how many copies 77X will sell is less important, and to stop spending resources of any kind on the project is more important.

I think UA's order for 50 A321XLR is a good proof point that the A321 has won the 757 size segment and Boeing will need to go to the 762/763 size category to find a market.

If they try to compete head on with A321, Airbus will win on price and compatibility. If they go bigger, Airbus will have to invest to follow and still have a price advantage but Boeing can address that to a reasonable degree with new tech, growth potential, and 787 compatibility.


Thanks for the link to the article. I do have a reservation around his characterisation of the market segments.
I personally don't believe that the runaway success of the A321NEO is clear evidence that "NMA space is where the growth is".
Out of the 3 200 A321NEO sold, only 400 are XLR variants that can be said to sit at the bottom of NMA space.
The rest are cooking A321NEO's with a real world capacity and range well below that of the 757.
Why do I think this is important?
Because I believe that NMA is less a gap in the market, and more just a gap, full stop.
I believe it is a structural characteristic of the market between narrowbodys and widebodys that won't disappear.
I have always thought it was folly for Boeing to launch a dedicated all new model at the space.

So the only logic left is to "stretch" the narrowbodys into this space IMO.
The 737 won't go there, though - it struggles to be competitive in cooking A321NEO space.
All of which makes the A320NEO more appealing overall as a family.

The article linked upthread by Scrimbl was interesting.
No surprise that Boeing are floating FSA in front of airlines.
I bet Airbus are too - that's how they obtain market intelligence.
What fascinated me was the reasons attributed to Boeing - overordering by lessors and key airline customers.
Those are not good messages for the MAX IMO.

It has been pointed out that the MAX backlog is 4 500 aircraft, but it isn't really.
400 of those have already been built and parked up
The MAX will secure more orders, that I don't doubt. I have confidence that the IAG LOI will be realised, for example.
The worry I think is how many conversions or cancellations we might see, facilitated by Boeing being in breach of contract terms now.
we have already seen both outright cancellations and conversions to 787.
The 737 MAX backlog might not be as resilient as it might appear.
That's the context I think the "overordering by lessors and key airline customers" might be considered in.

FSA might not sound too adventurous, but properly executed, Boeing could do to the NEO what the NEO has done to the MAX, by giving it the flexibility to have bigger diameter engines and longer fuselages - e.g. longer landing gear, wider aisle, potential for folding wingtips.
A strategy of launching an initial FSA model that is, say, a tiny bit bigger than the A321, and thus slightly differentiated is a starting point, and I think would lead to volumes that NMA will never see.
This could be followed by a bigger model going further into NMA space than the A320NEO family is able to go.
The 737-8 could be left intact for now - it is easily the most popular MAX, and eventually replaced by a smaller FSA model at a time that is convenient to Boeing

This FSA would ultimately achieve the "commoditisation" that you rightly characterised some time ago, and would put the monkey back on Airbus.
Airbus would then have the choice of
a) the NEO becoming the new MAX
b) launching a new product

Just thoughts.
But I think there is a strategy route through for Boeing that can move them back onto the front foot.

Rgds


For most operators, low on belly freight, the A321LR does already the work of a 757-200WL. The XLR does go a step further in range, while impinging less on the capabilities for belly freight. We have also seen A321ceo replacing 757 on all but the 10% range dependent routes.
There are already around 1750 A321 ceo out there. But the A321neo brought the serious take off. Of the 3200 A321neo we can assume 500 LR and 500 XLR. I really do not see much space left in a market above the A321XLR and below the 787/A330.

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