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scbriml
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:49 pm

musman9853 wrote:
It's not very difficult to understand.


The business case still wasn't closed in mid June. The BOD couldn't have approved ATO in March. It's not very difficult to understand.
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musman9853
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:31 pm

scbriml wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
It's not very difficult to understand.


The business case still wasn't closed in mid June. The BOD couldn't have approved ATO in March. It's not very difficult to understand.


The reporting Indicates that the launch was all but green lit. That must mean the business case, pre max, was closed. And no offense, I'll listen to the actual journalist over you.
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SteelChair
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:47 pm

musman9853 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Also reporting from the air current saying the same thing:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... g-the-nma/


That article is from Sep 2018. The other were lots of "it's widely believed" fluff. But very close to ATO in March in your view?

:


The reporting indicated that Boeing planned to launch at Paris. In order to do that, the BOD had to issue ato beforehand. The only time that could've happened was at the March meeting. It's not very difficult to understand.


It's not very difficult to understand that those links are full of speculation. They are just more blather. At this point, I won't believe its launched until its launched.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:08 pm

Which will be first, NMA or viable nuclear fusion?

Or actually starting that diet...


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estorilm
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:15 pm

leghorn wrote:
Since the Grounding the market for long range 200(or more) seat planes has become very strong and the 737Max-10 is Boeing's offering in that market sector which is unfortunately paralyzed until the 737Max is certified again.
If Boeing can't sell the 737Max-10 once it is properly back available for sale then that is the time to pull the trigger on a new design.

Eh I disagree, that was their offering because that was LITERALLY all they could squeeze out of the -10 and MAX as a whole. The frame becomes fuel limited, payload limited, weight limited, etc etc if you play with adding fuel or mtow or range. It's current design is fairly solid and will likely never change, kinda because it can't.

Having said the above, it sits nearly 1,500nm SHORTER range than the A321XLR, so I wouldn't say "that's Boeing's offering in that market sector" - their performance is very different. In fact, the A321, 321LR, and 321XLR ALL have more range than the -10.

I guess I'm saying, I think the -10 is Boeing's offering in that capacity segment, but definitely not in range - THAT portion of the market was completely ceded to Airbus from the start of MAX development, and Boeing likely knew it (even if LR/XLR weren't announced, if us Anetters threw around the concept of additional ACTs, MTOW bumps, then a permanent center tank, so could Boeing's folks). It's also likely why the MOM, NMA etc was put on hold; someone was worried that a quick-to-market long-range ~210-240 seat aircraft could really challenge the case for the program (even if what they wanted to build was a different size/type of plane). They needed those XLR customers badly, as the profit margin for the program was razor thin as it was (as many have mentioned in here lately).
 
JibberJim
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:26 pm

Stitch wrote:
If Boeing had enough firm interest to launch NMA at Paris, then why didn't they do it?

MAX's grounding should not have impacted it since they were entirely different programs. Yes, senior BCA management would have their focus on MAX, but that doesn't mean everything else stops.


But a new plane requires lots of Cash, cash became a lot less reliable once they didn't know when the Max deliveries and therefore payments would restart.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:44 pm

musman9853 wrote:
That must mean the business case, pre max, was closed. And no offense, I'll listen to the actual journalist over you.


Right. Except, I'm not asking you to believe me, I've shown you where the CEO (and then chairman) and commercial aircraft chief of Boeing both said the business case wasn't closed after the date you claim the BOD very, very nearly authorised ATO, but didn't. ATO wasn't anywhere close to being authorised in March, because the business case clearly wasn't closed (according to two senior Boeing execs).

I've shown you, but you still claim otherwise. There's none so blind as those that will not see or those who prefer the words of "a journalist" over those of two senior Boeing executives just because it reinforces your belief. Or do you think the two execs were lying to the press?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:03 pm

JibberJim wrote:
But a new plane requires lots of Cash, cash became a lot less reliable once they didn't know when the Max deliveries and therefore payments would restart.


The real expenses would have been a few years on when Boeing starts to build out the production and supply chain so I'm pretty confident they could have afforded it if they had launched. :biggrin:
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:17 pm

Regarding the business case:

@Boeing sees demand for 1,000 small-medium widebody airplanes in next decade. Figure @Airbus gets half. *This* is why NMA business case is so difficult. "Small-medium: includes 787-8, A330-800. Not much room left for Boeing's share with NMA and whatever Airbus response will be.


https://twitter.com/LeehamNews/status/1 ... 7159137281

If Boeing sees demand for 1,000 of these widebody airplanes, and admits Airbus will get half of the demand, what's the point of investing $15 billion into a program that might sell around 500 aircraft? It's not like Boeing will capture significant market share by launching this program.

Boeing should go after the A321neo instead. The market for narrow body aircraft is bigger, as can be seen by the thousands of A321 sales. But then again, launching a new narrow body program when Boeing sits on a 4,000+ aircraft backlog sounds very difficult as well.
Good moaning!
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:11 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Regarding the business case:

@Boeing sees demand for 1,000 small-medium widebody airplanes in next decade. Figure @Airbus gets half. *This* is why NMA business case is so difficult. "Small-medium: includes 787-8, A330-800. Not much room left for Boeing's share with NMA and whatever Airbus response will be.


https://twitter.com/LeehamNews/status/1 ... 7159137281

If Boeing sees demand for 1,000 of these widebody airplanes, and admits Airbus will get half of the demand, what's the point of investing $15 billion into a program that might sell around 500 aircraft? It's not like Boeing will capture significant market share by launching this program.

Boeing should go after the A321neo instead. The market for narrow body aircraft is bigger, as can be seen by the thousands of A321 sales. But then again, launching a new narrow body program when Boeing sits on a 4,000+ aircraft backlog sounds very difficult as well.


The point of Boeing launching any program is to make a profit. If they could do that with 1% market share then they would. Market share doesn't really matter. All that matters is if they can sell enough frames to get enough ROI.

Airbus didn't launch the A330NEO to get a certain widebody market share. They launched because they felt they could sell enough at a high enough price to get a good ROI.

Market share only matters to fanboys (and girls) that keep score like it is a world cup game. These are two gargantuan businesses, not sports teams.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:58 am

PacoMartin wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
I think Boeing is going to leave the narrow body market entirely and focus on the more profitable defense and widebody market.

The day Boeing doesn’t have a NB option or at least one in development will be the day the company goes out of business.

I think Boeing is a very viable business even without NB options.

That’s quite possible, but something that could also become a reality for Boeing is losing WB customers who came to the conclusion that it makes sense to go to Airbus for all of their needs, especially if Airbus gives them a good deal on a combined WB/NB order. What most of us here can agree on is Boeing needs to give airlines a new NB option in the next 5-10 years.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:01 am

No sane BOD would even contemplate an 'Authority to Offer' until the MAX has RTS and there is a much better handle on costs. Besides, a core group of the digital wizards are probably off getting the T-7 off to a great start. Excellent experience to test the new design tools out.

Look how the 777x went quiet, yet a different program. RR hasn't taken proper care of its T1000 customers and their rep has suffered with their customers. It is a very delicate time for customer and supplier relations.

I love the A220, but it still does not have 100 in service yet, after more than 3 years. How many years will it be before it is produced at 20/month - certainly not next year. Also, there is no commonality with the A320 so separate pilot pools, maintenance staff, parts, etc. Makes it much harder to integrate the fleet. An excellent plane if a smaller capacity than a B738 or A319. It has already taken out the B737-700 and the A318.
 
WBM
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:30 am

scbriml wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
That must mean the business case, pre max, was closed. And no offense, I'll listen to the actual journalist over you.


Right. Except, I'm not asking you to believe me, I've shown you where the CEO (and then chairman) and commercial aircraft chief of Boeing both said the business case wasn't closed after the date you claim the BOD very, very nearly authorised ATO, but didn't. ATO wasn't anywhere close to being authorised in March, because the business case clearly wasn't closed (according to two senior Boeing execs).

I've shown you, but you still claim otherwise. There's none so blind as those that will not see or those who prefer the words of "a journalist" over those of two senior Boeing executives just because it reinforces your belief. Or do you think the two execs were lying to the press?


I will not claim to know if Boeing was about to launch the NMA or not, but I've always been skeptical of the "working our way through the business case" line. It's not so much that I think it is a lie, as it is a technically true but meaningless statement. It could describe anything from a concept with little hope of taking flight, to an almost ready to launch aircraft that is waiting for final approval. Nobody with Boeing can say there will be a launch, until the board of directors approves the launch. "We are working to close the business case," is the perfect deflection. It is true until the business plan is approved by the board of directors. Until that point the business case is still open.

Many people seem to have settled on a very narrow and negative version of what it means to be working to close the business case. In this case, I think that actions speak louder than words. The loudest action so far has been requesting bids for engines. I believe that was a clear indication the plane was on path toward launch.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:39 am

planecane wrote:
The point of Boeing launching any program is to make a profit. If they could do that with 1% market share then they would. Market share doesn't really matter. All that matters is if they can sell enough frames to get enough ROI.


So can Boeing make enough ROI out of a new widebody program with an estimated production run of 500 aircraft?
Good moaning!
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:14 pm

WBM wrote:
scbriml wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
That must mean the business case, pre max, was closed. And no offense, I'll listen to the actual journalist over you.


Right. Except, I'm not asking you to believe me, I've shown you where the CEO (and then chairman) and commercial aircraft chief of Boeing both said the business case wasn't closed after the date you claim the BOD very, very nearly authorised ATO, but didn't. ATO wasn't anywhere close to being authorised in March, because the business case clearly wasn't closed (according to two senior Boeing execs).

I've shown you, but you still claim otherwise. There's none so blind as those that will not see or those who prefer the words of "a journalist" over those of two senior Boeing executives just because it reinforces your belief. Or do you think the two execs were lying to the press?


I will not claim to know if Boeing was about to launch the NMA or not, but I've always been skeptical of the "working our way through the business case" line. It's not so much that I think it is a lie, as it is a technically true but meaningless statement. It could describe anything from a concept with little hope of taking flight, to an almost ready to launch aircraft that is waiting for final approval. Nobody with Boeing can say there will be a launch, until the board of directors approves the launch. "We are working to close the business case," is the perfect deflection. It is true until the business plan is approved by the board of directors. Until that point the business case is still open.

Many people seem to have settled on a very narrow and negative version of what it means to be working to close the business case. In this case, I think that actions speak louder than words. The loudest action so far has been requesting bids for engines. I believe that was a clear indication the plane was on path toward launch.


If actions speak louder than words, than the action has been 4 years talking without taking the step. If the business case would be there, it would have been launched.
Yes, the y have asked for engine proposals and than asked again, but nobody will start designing the engine without Boeing launching the frame.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:24 pm

[quote=
The SUV of aircraft.
Remember the 70s and tiny compact cars? Now everyone has a giant Subaru or bigger. People will take space over cost when offered the rational choice.[/quote]

This is the great mystery. I can (and do) carefully choose what motel I stay in. My preference is 3 star with a hot breakfast, and while I pay attention to prices I am willing to pay considerably more for that. If I pay more for my cheap Y seat it seldom results in a more comfortable seat with a little more space. Paying for drinks or food is OK by me. The only sure way for more comfort is economy plus or some such, and it often costs twice as much. My preference would be 10-15% more space for about 20% more cash. For a variety of reasons that generally is not possible. Airlines can have a rough time making 10% gross profit margins, which is minimal for a healthy corporation. WN is my default preference, they appreciate their Y customers, although my last flight was Delta and I was impressed by the lack of hassle boarding and deboarding.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:32 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
planecane wrote:
The point of Boeing launching any program is to make a profit. If they could do that with 1% market share then they would. Market share doesn't really matter. All that matters is if they can sell enough frames to get enough ROI.


So can Boeing make enough ROI out of a new widebody program with an estimated production run of 500 aircraft?


With simplified math, if it was a $15 billion program they'd have to make a profit of $30 million per frame to break even. That doesn't give any ROI. I don't know if they could charge enough or bring the production cost low enough to make it work. Possibly, especially if a decent portion of the investment can apply to a 737 replacement and save money on that program.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:40 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The SUV of aircraft.
Remember the 70s and tiny compact cars? Now everyone has a giant Subaru or bigger. People will take space over cost when offered the rational choice.

This is the great mystery. I can (and do) carefully choose what motel I stay in. My preference is 3 star with a hot breakfast, and while I pay attention to prices I am willing to pay considerably more for that. If I pay more for my cheap Y seat it seldom results in a more comfortable seat with a little more space. Paying for drinks or food is OK by me. The only sure way for more comfort is economy plus or some such, and it often costs twice as much. My preference would be 10-15% more space for about 20% more cash. For a variety of reasons that generally is not possible. Airlines can have a rough time making 10% gross profit margins, which is minimal for a healthy corporation. WN is my default preference, they appreciate their Y customers, although my last flight was Delta and I was impressed by the lack of hassle boarding and deboarding.


I say we all just pester our various regulators Worldwide to implement higher minimum space requirements on all Flights worldwide. Go back to 32" pitch and with Slimline Seats it would be like 33-34", with nothing slimmer than an 737 seat.

I think if everyone on the planet could vote - we would all accept this, and it would add maybe 3-5% more to the cost of a ticket - maybe.

Just like we would vote to implement basic human rights and no more wars.

With the Internet hopefully we get to that point in the future soon so the Politicians and Regulators can't continue to impose what they think is good for us on us or continue to be swayed by commercial interests.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 3:55 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
This is the great mystery. I can (and do) carefully choose what motel I stay in. My preference is 3 star with a hot breakfast, and while I pay attention to prices I am willing to pay considerably more for that. If I pay more for my cheap Y seat it seldom results in a more comfortable seat with a little more space. Paying for drinks or food is OK by me. The only sure way for more comfort is economy plus or some such, and it often costs twice as much. My preference would be 10-15% more space for about 20% more cash. For a variety of reasons that generally is not possible. Airlines can have a rough time making 10% gross profit margins, which is minimal for a healthy corporation. WN is my default preference, they appreciate their Y customers, although my last flight was Delta and I was impressed by the lack of hassle boarding and deboarding.

I think it shows what a large percentage of the population is so frugal (out of necessity or by choice) that they won't pay ANY more than they have to. The STRONG preference for the cheapest possible means the airline runs the risk of the premium seats going out empty, so they make them scarce and they price them so they can afford to have them go out empty more often than the cheapest possible seat.

Airlines aren't going to stop the race to the bottom themselves so I think there will eventually be minimum seat size and pitch standards, I'm surprised they aren't in place already.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:07 pm

:bigthumbsup:
morrisond wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The SUV of aircraft.
Remember the 70s and tiny compact cars? Now everyone has a giant Subaru or bigger. People will take space over cost when offered the rational choice.

This is the great mystery. I can (and do) carefully choose what motel I stay in. My preference is 3 star with a hot breakfast, and while I pay attention to prices I am willing to pay considerably more for that. If I pay more for my cheap Y seat it seldom results in a more comfortable seat with a little more space. Paying for drinks or food is OK by me. The only sure way for more comfort is economy plus or some such, and it often costs twice as much. My preference would be 10-15% more space for about 20% more cash. For a variety of reasons that generally is not possible. Airlines can have a rough time making 10% gross profit margins, which is minimal for a healthy corporation. WN is my default preference, they appreciate their Y customers, although my last flight was Delta and I was impressed by the lack of hassle boarding and deboarding.


I say we all just pester our various regulators Worldwide to implement higher minimum space requirements on all Flights worldwide. Go back to 32" pitch and with Slimline Seats it would be like 33-34", with nothing slimmer than an 737 seat.

I think if everyone on the planet could vote - we would all accept this, and it would add maybe 3-5% more to the cost of a ticket - maybe.

Just like we would vote to implement basic human rights and no more wars.

With the Internet hopefully we get to that point in the future soon so the Politicians and Regulators can't continue to impose what they think is good for us on us or continue to be swayed by commercial interests.


:bigthumbsup: And I would expand on that with hassle free service. WN really works at that. If there is a change in the flight they call you to the service desk and tell you how it will be solved. Other airlines tend to leave it up to you to figure it out. United did that to us along with a 5 hour delay, and it left me feeling like you do after getting food poisoning at a high class restaurant from the raw oysters. It may not have been the restaurant's fault, but you still won't want to go back - ever.
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WBM
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:46 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
WBM wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Right. Except, I'm not asking you to believe me, I've shown you where the CEO (and then chairman) and commercial aircraft chief of Boeing both said the business case wasn't closed after the date you claim the BOD very, very nearly authorised ATO, but didn't. ATO wasn't anywhere close to being authorised in March, because the business case clearly wasn't closed (according to two senior Boeing execs).

I've shown you, but you still claim otherwise. There's none so blind as those that will not see or those who prefer the words of "a journalist" over those of two senior Boeing executives just because it reinforces your belief. Or do you think the two execs were lying to the press?


I will not claim to know if Boeing was about to launch the NMA or not, but I've always been skeptical of the "working our way through the business case" line. It's not so much that I think it is a lie, as it is a technically true but meaningless statement. It could describe anything from a concept with little hope of taking flight, to an almost ready to launch aircraft that is waiting for final approval. Nobody with Boeing can say there will be a launch, until the board of directors approves the launch. "We are working to close the business case," is the perfect deflection. It is true until the business plan is approved by the board of directors. Until that point the business case is still open.

Many people seem to have settled on a very narrow and negative version of what it means to be working to close the business case. In this case, I think that actions speak louder than words. The loudest action so far has been requesting bids for engines. I believe that was a clear indication the plane was on path toward launch.


If actions speak louder than words, than the action has been 4 years talking without taking the step. If the business case would be there, it would have been launched.
Yes, the y have asked for engine proposals and than asked again, but nobody will start designing the engine without Boeing launching the frame.


Four years from talking to customers to an actual launch does not seem particularly slow to me. I think they actually learned something from the mistakes of the 787 launch.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:59 pm

WBM wrote:
Four years from talking to customers to an actual launch does not seem particularly slow to me. I think they actually learned something from the mistakes of the 787 launch.

Indeed. 777 started out as a larger 767. Airbus was talking to customers about A380 much longer than four years. 787 went from Sonic Cruiser to 7E7 to 787 all with customer input. Airbus went from A350 Mk I with a meaningful number of orders in the books through several iterations to A350XWB. There is nothing straight forward about launching a clean sheet project. It's not like one does a few photoshops and launches an airplane as many here on a.net seem to think.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
uta999
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:59 pm

Should Boeing or Airbus speak to airlines at all? Both have followed their advice in the past and got it completely wrong.

Think back to the early A350 (pre XWB), A380, A318, 767-400, 737-700/900, the 777-8/9 and the MAX.

The data is already out there and they could simply use real-world flight schedules, passenger loads and cargo lift to come up with what the airlines need.

Listening to the likes of EK, WN and a few others is a very bad idea.
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RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:42 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
My preference would be 10-15% more space for about 20% more cash. For a variety of reasons that generally is not possible.

Actually it is possible in most countries. With ULCC, LCC, mainline economy seats and then recliners with the LCC.

Say i want to fly from Australia to Japan.
We have the following seat sizes:

Airasiax 9ab A330 = 16.5" wide x 32" pitch
Scoot 9ab 787 = 17.5" wide x 31" pitch
Cathay 9ab A350 = 18" wide x 32" pitch
Scootsilence 9ab 787 = 34/36" pitch
Japan Airlines 8ab 787 = 18.5" wide 32" pitch
Jetstar 7ab 787 = 19" wide 38" pitch

Price goes up only slightly higher than linear of seat area. So 10-15% more area for 20% more cost definitely applies.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:19 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
So can Boeing make enough ROI out of a new widebody program with an estimated production run of 500 aircraft?


Key
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sun Dec 22, 2019 3:09 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
That’s quite possible, but something that could also become a reality for Boeing is losing WB customers who came to the conclusion that it makes sense to go to Airbus for all of their needs, especially if Airbus gives them a good deal on a combined WB/NB order.

Only 20% of the world's population has been on a plane and we broke 4 billion air passengers in 2017. In a decade and a half it is likely to be 8 billion. It is not impossible that the smallest jet you will want to squeeze into an overcrowded runway will be the equivalent of a 767-200(ER) with 3-class seating of 174 and 2-class seating of 214 and 1-class seating of 245. NB may become a niche market.

dampfnudel wrote:
What most of us here can agree on is Boeing needs to give airlines a new NB option in the next 5-10 years.


I'm sure that most people would agree with that statement, but I think that Boeing's decision in 2010 to push a clean sheet design to 2030 calls into serious question their commitment to NBs. By 2030 there will probably be 5 models in the NB market.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sun Dec 22, 2019 3:49 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
767-200(ER) with 3-class seating of 174 and 2-class seating of 214 and 1-class seating of 245.


Now give the 245 seat version and the 174 about the range of an A318 with bags and freight and the 3 class enough range light transatlantic ... and Boeing has the Middle Market covered at the lowest end.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sun Dec 22, 2019 4:38 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
...I think that Boeing's decision in 2010 to push a clean sheet design to 2030 calls into serious question their commitment to NBs. By 2030 there will probably be 5 models in the NB market.


IMO, all the more reason to wait a few more years to extract every last advantage you can in structures, systems, propulsion and production.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:15 pm

I kind of feel Boeing would have been able to capitalize off of an A220 production line acquisition!

20/20 I guessing
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Blotto
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:10 am

PacoMartin wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
That’s quite possible, but something that could also become a reality for Boeing is losing WB customers who came to the conclusion that it makes sense to go to Airbus for all of their needs, especially if Airbus gives them a good deal on a combined WB/NB order.

Only 20% of the world's population has been on a plane and we broke 4 billion air passengers in 2017. In a decade and a half it is likely to be 8 billion. It is not impossible that the smallest jet you will want to squeeze into an overcrowded runway will be the equivalent of a 767-200(ER) with 3-class seating of 174 and 2-class seating of 214 and 1-class seating of 245. NB may become a niche market.

Might be true for LHR and a handful of other airports. But this wrong assumption of airport overcrowding is the same false assumption that brought us the A380.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:48 am

Blotto wrote:
with 3-class seating of 174 and 2-class seating of 214 and 1-class seating of 245. NB may become a niche market.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_757#Specifications

Seems right on the money for a narrow body to me...
Image
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:55 pm

Calhoun at Boeing:

Good
Bad
Indifferent

In terms of the likely outcome of the:
* Boeing 767 new passenger offering
* Boeing 797 NMA 7 abreast transatlantic widebody.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:10 pm

He's been a member of the BoD for a decade so he's up to speed on whatever new projects BCA has been working on, however he's also been present for all the issues BCA has had for the past decade so I'm inclined to think he will be conservative on launching a new major project other than the 737 replacement (which is Boeing's main need - and one that existed before the MAX's problems). So I would guess he will not be in favor of an NMA/MOM Authority to Offer nor a 767-X refresh.That being said, he will no longer be Chairman as former Continental CEO Larry Kellner will become the new Chairman of the Board.

His biggest asset to Boeing appears to be he is a much better communicator than Muilenburg was so that should hopefully help start restoring Boeing's relationship with regulators, customers and the general flying public. Once that role is completed, I expect him to step down as CEO as he does not have an engineering background (though he did run GE Aviation Engines for a time) and that will probably become a "core competency" of the CEO position once things are stabilized again.
Last edited by Stitch on Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:16 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:13 pm

Shame they just can’t slap on the

- efficient wings and short landing gear of the 737 MAX, to the
- fuselage of a 767, add a
- 717 style Ttail and two
- rear mounted engines,
- plus a DC-10 style center landing gear
- maximum commonality minimum fuss
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:00 pm

Interesting comment from Boeing's new CEO:

He also disclosed Boeing is starting with a “clean sheet of paper” on a New Midsize Airplane but it is not clear if the company is scrapping the existing design.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2MA

So this suggests if nothing else there still is a project called New Midsize Airplane within Boeing, but adds no clarity on what market it is targeting.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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TObound
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:58 pm

musman9853 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
It's not very difficult to understand.


The business case still wasn't closed in mid June. The BOD couldn't have approved ATO in March. It's not very difficult to understand.


The reporting Indicates that the launch was all but green lit. That must mean the business case, pre max, was closed. And no offense, I'll listen to the actual journalist over you.


I've always been curious about why if they were this close to ATO, we've not heard more about the actual design.
 
musman9853
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:20 pm

TObound wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

The business case still wasn't closed in mid June. The BOD couldn't have approved ATO in March. It's not very difficult to understand.


The reporting Indicates that the launch was all but green lit. That must mean the business case, pre max, was closed. And no offense, I'll listen to the actual journalist over you.


I've always been curious about why if they were this close to ATO, we've not heard more about the actual design.


We did have a very good idea. 7ab ovoid. Nma6 to be 225 pax at 5k miles in 2025, nma 7x 265 pax at 4500 miles in 2027.
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
So this suggests if nothing else there still is a project called New Midsize Airplane within Boeing, but adds no clarity on what market it is targeting.


I am going to hazard a random guess that NMA is being pushed downward to include the space currently taken by the 737-9 and 737-10. So I am thinking a 220 to 280 seat (single class) 3+3 narrowbody with multiple exit configuration options to accommodate those figures. The 737-8 and below Replacement Study (so 200 seats or less, single class) will likely be a collaboration with Embraer and extend down into the A200 / E190 segment.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:03 pm

I think it will be a clean sheet fully FBW targeting the single aisle market. Competing against A320, A321 and especially the A321LR/XLR.

The proposition will be for existing customers to switch from max to the new thing.
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KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:03 pm

musman9853 wrote:
TObound wrote:
musman9853 wrote:

The reporting Indicates that the launch was all but green lit. That must mean the business case, pre max, was closed. And no offense, I'll listen to the actual journalist over you.


I've always been curious about why if they were this close to ATO, we've not heard more about the actual design.


We did have a very good idea. 7ab ovoid. Nma6 to be 225 pax at 5k miles in 2025, nma 7x 265 pax at 4500 miles in 2027.


This conventional design was NOT taking into account the realties of larger and larger fan power plant technology.

205-245 pax and less range might be the new sweet spot... or even something else which Boeing will strive for in search of a post magic black economic recovery to Boeing’s fortunes.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
Oykie
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:40 pm

How about Boeing upgrading the 767 alongside the 737MAX and then take their time to replace both down the line?
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:24 pm

Oykie wrote:
How about Boeing upgrading the 767 alongside the 737MAX and then take their time to replace both down the line?


Boeing is said to have been shopping a "767neo / 767MAX" to customers either as a bridge to NMA or in place of NMA. I'm guessing it found insufficient interest to bring to market.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:25 am

The issue with the NMA business case has been the same since we starting talking about it and, as time has gone by and Airbus has released products such as the A321XLR, the issue has got worse. As originally envisaged, the NMA was to be a modern intepretation of a small widebody aircraft, realistically an all-new replacement for aircraft such as A310 or 767-200. It was going to be attractive to airlines wishing to replace 757s as well as offer a bridge between 738/A320s and A330/787s. Exactly what was an NMA would look like was always problematic given most airlines wanted lots of the new features but also wanted it to fit in gates currently occupied by 757s; something had to give.

The business case issue was widebodies are more expensive to develop and sell than narrowbodies so unless it offered significant benefits over the A321 it was hard to see why airlines would be more attracted to the NMA. Airbus has continued to do a great job with the A321 and has already consumed a huge amount of the 757 replacement market. At the same time, the market for small widebodies such as 788 and A338 has evaporated with most airlines opting for larger alternatives such as 789 or A339 so whether this market even existed to the size required to have a profitable program was called into question. Even more threatening is Airbus still have a comparatively low-cost option (not cheap but a lot less than NMA) of re-winging the A321 which will mean it will be be even more capable than it is now to consume an even larger part of the NMA's target market.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but you can't help wondering how much better equipped Boeing would be today to tackle this market as it now appears to have evolved had it developed NSA 10 years ago instead of rushing into MAX and that is even before considering MAX's well-documented disasters.
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:24 am

tullamarine wrote:
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but you can't help wondering how much better equipped Boeing would be today to tackle this market as it now appears to have evolved had it developed NSA 10 years ago instead of rushing into MAX...


Just want to be up front that while I am quoting you, I am not intending to call you out with what I say below, but more that you've given me the opportunity to comment in general. :bigthumbsup:


IMO, NSA was really never going to be a real option in the 2010s. Even if Boeing had not been trying to drag the 787 and 747-8 programs across the finish line, NSA really would have been a technological peer to the A320 in most respects (materials, systems, propulsion, etc). As such, I see Boeing hard-pressed to be able to command the premium they needed to pay for the program - especially since Airbus would be shoving A320neos out at 40+ a month (leveraging the economies of scale on Average Sales Prices) while Boeing would be spinning up both a new production line at home as well as at their suppliers.

Also, we saw that with JetA prices spiking and with no end in sight, airlines did not want to wait for NSA because fuel was quickly becoming their #1 cost center and they wanted relief ASAP. So if Boeing had held off until probably around now to get the NSA into the air, they would have seen 737NG sales contract significantly while also risking major customers switching to Airbus (they had effectively lost Delta and were at real risk of losing American and LionAir).

Boeing had to commit to something they could both deliver relatively soon after the A320neo EIS and deliver in significant quantities to meet customer delivery demands. In 2011, the only realistic option available was MAX so that is what they did.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:34 am

Stitch wrote:


As such, I see Boeing hard-pressed to be able to command the premium they needed to pay for the program - especially since Airbus would be shoving A320neos out at 40+ a month (leveraging the economies of scale on Average Sales Prices) while Boeing would be spinning up both a new production line at home as well as at their suppliers.

In principle, this is why I think a narrow body the size of the 757-300 or 200+ seat range will not work, Airbus is pumping out A321's and will most likely convert a lot of their A320NEO's. The idea of a small widebody between the largest MAX and the smallest 787 should provide enough distinction to allow a premium price to pay for the product. A narrow body 3 x 3 presents to difficult of a challenge to command a premium price, even if it were composite like the 787.
 
SanDiegoLover
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:16 am

Stitch wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but you can't help wondering how much better equipped Boeing would be today to tackle this market as it now appears to have evolved had it developed NSA 10 years ago instead of rushing into MAX...


Just want to be up front that while I am quoting you, I am not intending to call you out with what I say below, but more that you've given me the opportunity to comment in general. :bigthumbsup:


IMO, NSA was really never going to be a real option in the 2010s. Even if Boeing had not been trying to drag the 787 and 747-8 programs across the finish line, NSA really would have been a technological peer to the A320 in most respects (materials, systems, propulsion, etc). As such, I see Boeing hard-pressed to be able to command the premium they needed to pay for the program - especially since Airbus would be shoving A320neos out at 40+ a month (leveraging the economies of scale on Average Sales Prices) while Boeing would be spinning up both a new production line at home as well as at their suppliers.

Also, we saw that with JetA prices spiking and with no end in sight, airlines did not want to wait for NSA because fuel was quickly becoming their #1 cost center and they wanted relief ASAP. So if Boeing had held off until probably around now to get the NSA into the air, they would have seen 737NG sales contract significantly while also risking major customers switching to Airbus (they had effectively lost Delta and were at real risk of losing American and LionAir).

Boeing had to commit to something they could both deliver relatively soon after the A320neo EIS and deliver in significant quantities to meet customer delivery demands. In 2011, the only realistic option available was MAX so that is what they did.



You know Stitch, I’m sick to death of this bs “premium” that so many Boeing supporters keep mentioning. At some point you have to actually build aircraft that people want to buy.,..regardless if you get a “premium” or not. Boeing keeps stalling and dithering over “closing the business case” year after year, after year, after year, and never doing anything. Somehow Boeing can’t find that “premium” to charge to bring a new aircraft to market but somehow Boeing keeps “finding” $20 billion here, $15 billion there, and $5 billion there, to paper over their clusterflucks. Every time! Boeing right now could have been fielding an all new 737 sized aircraft to take it into the next 2 decades given the $20 billion they just have blown with their incompetence on the MAX.

That’s not even talking about diverting some of the $75+ billion in worthless stock buybacks and financial Jerry rigging Boeing has engaged in over the past 15 years.

Boeing is an aerospace company who relies on building commercial aircraft that airlines want to purchase to thrive. Maybe if Boeing actually concentrated on its core business of building aircraft and pushing aerospace R&D technology into buildable aircraft, it wouldn’t be in this pickle.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:24 am

par13del wrote:
In principle, this is why I think a narrow body the size of the 757-300 or 200+ seat range will not work, Airbus is pumping out A321's and will most likely convert a lot of their A320NEO's. The idea of a small widebody between the largest MAX and the smallest 787 should provide enough distinction to allow a premium price to pay for the product. A narrow body 3 x 3 presents to difficult of a challenge to command a premium price, even if it were composite like the 787.


But that appears to be what Boeing has been offering for at least a couple of years and airlines just ordered A321XLRs.


SanDiegoLover wrote:
You know Stitch, I’m sick to death of this bs “premium” that so many Boeing supporters keep mentioning. At some point you have to actually build aircraft that people want to buy.,..regardless if you get a “premium” or not. Boeing keeps stalling and dithering over “closing the business case” year after year, after year, after year, and never doing anything.


If you cannot recover your R&D and production costs through the Average Sales Price per frame, then you can't be expected to close the business case. And that is what I mean by "charging a premium". I mean if it was just about spending money to spend money, sure Boeing could launch NMA and sell it for a loss just to gain market share in the 200+ seat segment against Airbus, but the stockholders are not going to be thrilled about it and the BoD and C-Suite cannot expect to keep their jobs, much less their bonuses.


SanDiegoLover wrote:
That’s not even talking about diverting some of the $75+ billion in worthless stock buybacks and financial Jerry rigging Boeing has engaged in over the past 15 years.


That's how the C-Suite keeps the stockholders happy - and them in their jobs.


SanDiegoLover wrote:
Boeing is an aerospace company who relies on building commercial aircraft that airlines want to purchase to thrive.


Airlines did not want to purchase NSA and appear to not want to purchase NMA as it was presented to them. They did, however, want to purchase MAX.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:09 am

Stitch wrote:
par13del wrote:
In principle, this is why I think a narrow body the size of the 757-300 or 200+ seat range will not work, Airbus is pumping out A321's and will most likely convert a lot of their A320NEO's. The idea of a small widebody between the largest MAX and the smallest 787 should provide enough distinction to allow a premium price to pay for the product. A narrow body 3 x 3 presents to difficult of a challenge to command a premium price, even if it were composite like the 787.


But that appears to be what Boeing has been offering for at least a couple of years and airlines just ordered A321XLRs.


Yes, and airlines are paying premium prices to be in the queue to take delivery of the A321NEO / LR / XLR


Stitch wrote:
SanDiegoLover wrote:
You know Stitch, I’m sick to death of this bs “premium” that so many Boeing supporters keep mentioning. At some point you have to actually build aircraft that people want to buy.,..regardless if you get a “premium” or not. Boeing keeps stalling and dithering over “closing the business case” year after year, after year, after year, and never doing anything.


If you cannot recover your R&D and production costs through the Average Sales Price per frame, then you can't be expected to close the business case. And that is what I mean by "charging a premium". I mean if it was just about spending money to spend money, sure Boeing could launch NMA and sell it for a loss just to gain market share in the 200+ seat segment against Airbus, but the stockholders are not going to be thrilled about it and the BoD and C-Suite cannot expect to keep their jobs, much less their bonuses.


But while Boeing continue to dither Airbus is making the A321 a better aircraft and booking orders further destroying the NMA business case, I think that Calhoun is acknowledging that but what exactly Boeing does to get back into this market sector is a mystery at this point. I don't believe that Boeing can afford to allow the MAX to go full cycle it has to be replaced sooner rather than later so that wedges them into a NSA, small enough to replace MAX-8 but big enough to slow the A321 XLR's roll.
BV
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:25 am

BoeingVista wrote:
But while Boeing continue to dither Airbus is making the A321 a better aircraft and booking orders further destroying the NMA business case, I think that Calhoun is acknowledging that but what exactly Boeing does to get back into this market sector is a mystery at this point.


Why does it have to be Boeing doing the "dithering" if airlines are not buying what they are trying to sell?

Is the assumption Boeing came up with one concept for the NMA and just keeps hoping airlines eventually come around? If so, that would be counter to how Boeing has developed every previous commercial model - Boeing has always engaged in a dialogue with potential customers to refine their designs to appeal to as many as possible, even if it does leave some "out in the cold".

Boeing and airlines have been working on defining NMA as a small widebody for years and Boeing could not convince them to commit to it. So now they have to start over, working within whatever constraints the airlines have placed on them in those discussions. And I would bet real money that those discussions focused on a 3+3 narrowbody in the 220-280 seat range (single class) with folding CFRP wings to fit in a 36m wide box with AKH containers as the holds will be used for passenger bags and "Express" freight (the heavy cargo will continue to be carried by larger twin-aisles), "next-generation" engines (Ultrafan and GTF Mk. II) and new, lighter aluminum alloys for the fuselage structure.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:41 am

Stitch wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
But while Boeing continue to dither Airbus is making the A321 a better aircraft and booking orders further destroying the NMA business case, I think that Calhoun is acknowledging that but what exactly Boeing does to get back into this market sector is a mystery at this point.


Why does it have to be Boeing doing the "dithering" if airlines are not buying what they are trying to sell?

Is the assumption Boeing came up with one concept for the NMA and just keeps hoping airlines eventually come around? If so, that would be counter to how Boeing has developed every previous commercial model - Boeing has always engaged in a dialogue with potential customers to refine their designs to appeal to as many as possible, even if it does leave some "out in the cold".

Boeing and airlines have been working on defining NMA as a small widebody for years and Boeing could not convince them to commit to it. So now they have to start over, working within whatever constraints the airlines have placed on them in those discussions. And I would bet real money that those discussions focused on a 3+3 narrowbody in the 220-280 seat range (single class) with folding CFRP wings to fit in a 36m wide box with AKH containers as the holds will be used for passenger bags and "Express" freight (the heavy cargo will continue to be carried by larger twin-aisles), "next-generation" engines (Ultrafan and GTF Mk. II) and new, lighter aluminum alloys for the fuselage structure.

You may be right with Boeing's current thougts but even here the business case may struggle given Airbus' ability to update the A321 (new wing, NG engines etc) for a much lower development cost meaning the price point at which Boeing could sell its new product could be restricted by Airbus selling an almost as good solution for much less.

Airbus has second-mover advantage currently in that it really doesn't have to do anything radical at the moment and can either do the updates mentioned above to keep the current A32X series competitive against whatever Boeing plans (more likely) or do a clean-sheet (less likely) to match Boeing knowing it has a huge backlog of NEOs to fund the development spend. Boeing's issue is that, given current and forecast medium term technologies, it is hard to see how it develops something so game changing that it forces Airbus to the clean-sheet option too.
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