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1989worstyear
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:27 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
sibibom wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

Only the engines have changed since 1988, assuming you're talking about the -200. Wing is identical.


Just taken from wikipedia, yes nothing other than engines have changed since 1988 :p :


Add manufacturing advances like stirring welding to that.

There is not that much improvement to the fuse to be had and the wing is still excellent and will get improvements for the XLR.

Best regards
Thomas


The wing is still 31 years old this month. That's a year older than I am. Also, those are just small updates and not a new variant. These are applicable to any type that's been in service for decades (A333, 763, 777) and not unique to the A320-200.

Surely AB can develop a new wing. CO2 regulations are going to be here before "the market" can react if we continue with "incremental improvements" over the next 30 years. Also, where are all of the Motorola 68000's going to come from? ;)
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:29 pm

I don’t accept the premise of the OP.
7000 orders and a growing backlog, Airbus literally cannot get the NEO out the door quickly enough. The only competitor is grounded and driving demand for both new and used A32X. More support requirements - great for Airbus.
For now, there is no need to go beyond what Airbus are currently offering and adding complexity to the production process is the last thing Airbus need.
Once Airbus has seen what the fallout of the MAX/NSA/MoM is they will be in a good position to consider what the 2030 product line should look like.
There are a few considerations here;
1) Engine Technology - could open rotor be viable, for example.
2) Advanced composite & materials. Can weight be saved? Can production be streamlined or maintenance burdens reduced?
3) Wing Technology - how much can be gained from wing and aero advances?
4) Grandfathering - This might be the most important. After the MAX it may be that the concept of grandfathering is so reduced that it is effectively eliminated. It could be easier to certify a clean-sheet design than re-certify an older design.

Aside from the technical point of view, the size and shape of Boeing’s next generation of aircraft will make a difference as well as the overall global economy and projected global growth/recession.

At the moment Airbus can allow things to play out. It might be that A221/3/5 and rewinged & engine PIP’d A320.5/321/322 cover MoM quite nicely. This could be effectively a clean-sheet programme from a certification point of view, so that counts against it. The 753 was never a great seller, an Airbus version would face similar operational challenges. I don’t think folding wingtips will be necessary as we’re talking about 757/767 size gates not 737/320
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:30 pm

smithbs wrote:
Airbus can pretty much do nothing and print money with the A320 series for years to come, and that's probably going to weigh heavily on their business analysis for scoping future projects.


Airbus seems to have a simple mandate in it's single-aisle design. Build a bigger jet. The A320 was much bigger than the B733 and the B734 which came as a response half a year later. They can come out with smaller variants later, but their core optimizations are aimed at the larger jets. Today the A321neo is the main product, with the A320neo the secondary product.

Although the B737 outsold the A320 family from 1988-2001, Airbus has exceeded or equalled deliveries every year since then. That basic fact is unlikely to change in the next decade.

VietJet Air, and Air Canada are the only two significant purchasers of the B737MAX that were not customers of the earlier versions of the B737. Most new airlines are drawn to the Airbus 320 family.

B731 - 50.0 tonne MTOW
B732 - 58.1 tonne MTOW
..
B733 - 62.8 tonne MTOW - first delivery 3 yrs, 4 months before A320 initial delivery
B734 - 68.0 tonne MTOW - first delivery 24 weeks after A320 initial delivery
B735 - 60.6 tonne MTOW
..
B736 - 65.5 tonne MTOW
B737 - 70.1 tonne MTOW
B738 - 79.0 tonne MTOW
B739 - 85.1 tonne MTOW
..
B37M - 80.3 tonne MTOW
B38M - 82.2 tonne MTOW
B39M - 88.3 tonne MTOW
B3XM - 89.8 tonne MTOW

A318 - 68.0 tonne MTOW
A319 - 75.5 tonne MTOW
A320 - 78.0 tonne MTOW first model to be delivered in 28 March 1988
A321-100 - 83.0 tonne MTOW
A321-200 - 93.5 tonne MTOW
A321neo - 97.0 tonne MTOW
A321XLR - 101.0 tonne MTOW

B752 - 115.7 tonne MTOW
B753 - 123.8 tonne MTOW
 
tommy1808
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:51 am

1989worstyear wrote:
The wing is still 31 years old this month. That's a year older than I am. Also, those are just small updates and not a new variant.


All life on this planet is the result of small changes that didn't constitute new variants. That approach can be incredibly efficient....

Also, where are all of the Motorola 68000's going to come from? ;)


From companies that have the license to make them. In industry new doesn't equal better. Fast enough with proven reliability does. I had many really sad customers when the (40Mhz) 386sx was discontinued just over a decade ago.

NXP still makes 68k CPUs and even still makes 68k MCUs they recommend for new designs....

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:59 am

lightsaber wrote:
With a 7+ year backlog, going away is the last thing Airbus will think about.


They'd better. It takes about ten years to design a clean-sheet airliner.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
sciing
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:31 am

PacoMartin wrote:
Today the A321neo is the main product, with the A320neo the secondary product.
[/quote]
Base on which data do you get such really strange conclusion?
 
astuteman
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:20 am

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
With a 7+ year backlog, going away is the last thing Airbus will think about.


They'd better. It takes about ten years to design a clean-sheet airliner.


I'd argue about the 10 years - 8 maybe, although all the Boeing NMA/FSA threads seem to think it could be done quicker.

But there are a couple of commercial issues to think about.

1. It will also take any competitor the same amount of time to develop a clean sheet airliner as it does Airbus
2. The A320 series out of all the families in the sky today is the one that has momentum, and a momentum that continues to grow.

Those two realities combined mean there is ZERO commercial drive for Airbus to back out of the A320 family at this moment.
In fact quite the opposite - it would put a dominant position at risk by undermining the biggest backlog in the history of aviation.
I find the whole basis of the thread bizarre, to be honest.

We should be in no doubt that Airbus continue to look at all-new replacements for the A320 as a matter of course.
They were recruiting Engineers into these roles a couple of years ago.

Us enthusiasts might not like tweaks to 30 year old technology.
The airlines seem to love it. And there are some valid reasons why.
There is a vast infrastructure in the industry set up around the A320 family.
The barriers to exit are considerable, and should not be dismissed.

I am pretty confident that Airbus will continue to polish their technology, but will only move once their principal competitors show their hand in this space.

Rgds
 
Kikko19
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:24 am

a320 and a300/a330 tubes are abslolutely perfect. just find new materials, rewing them and wait for the right engines. Nothing else is needed.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:38 am

Airbus will only move when their order book is shrinking. At the moment they are getting more orders yearly than they can produce yearly. So introducing an clean sheet within the next 5 years would be the dumbest business move ever. But I could imagine that Airbus will introduce an cleansheet 322 instead of a stretch in the coming years to go for the single aisle MoM, which later can be shrinked down to an a321.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:06 am

sciing wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
Today the A321neo is the main product, with the A320neo the secondary product.

Base on which data do you get such really strange conclusion?


As of end of September 2019 using 2018 AVERAGE LIST PRICES
A320neo 3082 unfilled orders x $110.60 million list price = $340,869 million
A321neo 2570 unfilled orders x $129.50 million list price = $332,815 million

Even though there is a slightly higher number value for the existing backlog of A320neo, the momentum is all for the A321neo. Variants such as the LR and XLR will go for a higher price, and a greater percentage of the orders in the future are expected for the A321neo.

We can also presume that more discount prices for large orders have been extended to A320neo purchases as opposed to A321neo purchases. When the orders were made there was some serious competition to the A320neo by the B737-8/200 MAX, while the as yet undelivered MAX 10 is the only competition to the A321neo.
 
snasteve
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:44 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Vladex wrote:
noisier,


a) what?
b) Boeing WB are quite a bit more noisy than the Airbus ones, how many people do you know that avoid Boeing WB for that reason? I know none.

operators realize that they are slower,


You think they don't know how fast those aircraft are? How cute....

Best regards
Thomas


Only the current 777 is much louder. The 787 and A350 are comparable noise wise. Although the A350 may seem quieter mainly because we are wired to notice higher pitch sounds. They are similar dB on paper. 747-8 is much quieter than previous versions. The new 777s should be similarly improved.
 
Caluma350
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:44 am

VSMUT wrote:
The A320neo must be the last shot of this family. Innovation is hampered by these eternal warmovers. Not saying it is a bad aircraft, but the A220 has shown itself an improvement in many fields that would never happen on the A320 due to requirements for commonality. But hopefully the fallout from the MAX will lay down enough restrictions.


I couldn't agree more, aircraft manufactures have become somewhat complacent when it comes to designing new a/c. You can argue that both the 787 and A350 are next generation a/c with cutting edge technology but the most significant improvement with these aircraft has been the new engine technology which results in a much lower fuel burn, not the overall aircraft itself.

An article I read recently on the MAX crisis refers to the aviation industry as a whole:
"You are in a mature industry that is no longer innovative; it’s a commodity business. The last great innovation capable of driving major growth in aviation was the jet engine back in the 1950s, and every technological advance since has been incremental. And so the emphasis of the business is going to switch away from engineering and toward supply-chain management. Because every mature company has to isolate which parts of its business add value, and delegate the more commodity like things to the supply chain. The more you look to the market for pricing signals, the more the role of the engineer will shrink.
" - https://newrepublic.com/article/154944/ ... revolution

The cost of major innovation these days is so astronomical that is it easy to understand why both Airbus and Boeing and keen to keep to their established designs going, as they are trusted and this saves training and design costs. But at some point these manufactures will need to innovate with the next design of a/c introducing new technologies especially with issues such as the price of fuel and global warming becoming ever more significant. Either that or we will see the A320 being a 100 year program, just like that of the B52!
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:31 pm

VSMUT wrote:
The A320neo must be the last shot of this family. Innovation is hampered by these eternal warmovers. Not saying it is a bad aircraft, but the A220 has shown itself an improvement in many fields that would never happen on the A320 due to requirements for commonality. But hopefully the fallout from the MAX will lay down enough restrictions.

That said, Airbus is not in a hurry to push a new design out of the factory. They can afford to wait until the next major technological advancements. Unlike a certain other OEM.

As for A220 commonality, I believe the next design will ditch the traditional (and honestly ageing) A320 flight deck, and adopt something in between the A220 and A350.


The core difference between the situation with the 737MAX and the A320neo family, that the A320neo family is not operating under exceptions to the different FAR.

The flight deck and the underlying programs, have been updated regularly. It conforms to the same standard as used for the A330/340, A380 and A350.
Moving that flight deck nearer to the A220 would cost the commonality with the other Airbus products.

one example: https://aviationweek.com/commercial-avi ... -computers

from Airbus: https://safetyfirst.airbus.com/a320-fam ... iguration/

another: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/air ... -incident/

It will be work to find information about all the different upgrades for the A320 family flight controls, older upgrades you find not on the internet.

It is absolutely absurd to talk about the flight control computers and programs on new A320 family are on the 1988 standard. Also many older frames have been upgraded to newer standards.

That is one of the big differences between a 737 and an A320 family frame. On the A320 family the alerting system for example gets fixed and the 737 family still uses a non compliant alerting system from before the design of the 757/767.

one article more: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... le-457574/

the above explains changes and reactions to accidents or incidents poster point to as similar to the 737MAX MCAS problem. In my opinion the reaction and work in regards to this incidents is quite different from Boeing's reaction to MCAS failure modes, but also made far simpler to react with the possibilities on a full blown FBW.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:03 pm

Caluma350 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
The A320neo must be the last shot of this family. Innovation is hampered by these eternal warmovers. Not saying it is a bad aircraft, but the A220 has shown itself an improvement in many fields that would never happen on the A320 due to requirements for commonality. But hopefully the fallout from the MAX will lay down enough restrictions.


I couldn't agree more, aircraft manufactures have become somewhat complacent when it comes to designing new a/c. You can argue that both the 787 and A350 are next generation a/c with cutting edge technology but the most significant improvement with these aircraft has been the new engine technology which results in a much lower fuel burn, not the overall aircraft itself.

An article I read recently on the MAX crisis refers to the aviation industry as a whole:
"You are in a mature industry that is no longer innovative; it’s a commodity business. The last great innovation capable of driving major growth in aviation was the jet engine back in the 1950s, and every technological advance since has been incremental.


The main reason for all of this is the relationship between safety and cost. Continual improvements to the technologies involved and continual additions to regulation has pushed the industry to refine more and more towards everyone doing the same uniform thing.

These days any innovation has to meet current levels of safety according to an ever-increasing mountain of regulation based around existing solutions... so it ends up looking exactly like what it replaces (maybe a touch cheaper or lighter if you look really closely). That means a genuine fundamental change a) has to provide an obvious and substantial benefit before a manufacturer goes for it and b) will cost a ton in terms of development and testing to prove that it can both be manufuctured and pass regulation... and that's on top of any R&D required just to develop the technology itself and additional costs versus existing solutions.

In other words, there is now a huge risk to do anything but tweak existing designs... so that's what everyone does. More composite here, an extra winglet there... but there's really no incentive to try anything but the standard template of tube, low wing, two engines.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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OA940
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:33 pm

Boeing made 3 variants of the 737 with no issue over a period of 4+ decades, so why should Airbus stop? The neo is a perfectly fine frame, otherwise airlines wouldn't be ordering it, and most certainly not by the hundreds. There will be new neos coming off the Hamburg and Toulouse lines in 2035, simply because right now there is absolutely no need for a clean-sheet A320 replacement. I agree that in 2025 they should be seriously thinking of a new aircraft, but they gain nothing at all from launching it short-term, because the tech to justify a complete replacement of their best-selling aircraft isn't here yet and the neo will be only 15 years old by then, meaning they'll have dumped billions into it only to replace it halfway through its lifetime? Makes no sense.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
estorilm
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:42 pm

What I like about Airbus' approach to this problem is that they're forward thinking ENOUGH that they can punch out this hypothetical new aircraft if they need to, but such an approach has also allowed their design to remain superior from a flexibility, adaptability, and efficiency standpoint for quite a while now without such R&D costs. The entire A320 (especially 321) / NEO program has had everyone in "checkmate" mode for almost a decade now. They're just waiting to see what moves anyone else makes - and whatever that might be, they're in a position to cut it off and counter it with an earlier EIS product.

They don't need to do anything right now. Sit around, tweak a few responses to possible competitor concepts, airline requests, etc. and continue to print cash and up their production rate.
 
Caluma350
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:44 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Caluma350 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
The A320neo must be the last shot of this family. Innovation is hampered by these eternal warmovers. Not saying it is a bad aircraft, but the A220 has shown itself an improvement in many fields that would never happen on the A320 due to requirements for commonality. But hopefully the fallout from the MAX will lay down enough restrictions.


I couldn't agree more, aircraft manufactures have become somewhat complacent when it comes to designing new a/c. You can argue that both the 787 and A350 are next generation a/c with cutting edge technology but the most significant improvement with these aircraft has been the new engine technology which results in a much lower fuel burn, not the overall aircraft itself.

An article I read recently on the MAX crisis refers to the aviation industry as a whole:
"You are in a mature industry that is no longer innovative; it’s a commodity business. The last great innovation capable of driving major growth in aviation was the jet engine back in the 1950s, and every technological advance since has been incremental.


The main reason for all of this is the relationship between safety and cost. Continual improvements to the technologies involved and continual additions to regulation has pushed the industry to refine more and more towards everyone doing the same uniform thing.

These days any innovation has to meet current levels of safety according to an ever-increasing mountain of regulation based around existing solutions... so it ends up looking exactly like what it replaces (maybe a touch cheaper or lighter if you look really closely). That means a genuine fundamental change a) has to provide an obvious and substantial benefit before a manufacturer goes for it and b) will cost a ton in terms of development and testing to prove that it can both be manufuctured and pass regulation... and that's on top of any R&D required just to develop the technology itself and additional costs versus existing solutions.

In other words, there is now a huge risk to do anything but tweak existing designs... so that's what everyone does. More composite here, an extra winglet there... but there's really no incentive to try anything but the standard template of tube, low wing, two engines.


Yeah completely agree and it is understandable - if its not broke don't fix it. But there are constantly new technologies being research into such as the Boeing X-48 part of the "Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project", now projects like this are very much projects for the future. But you never know what direction aviation will take over the next 30 to 40 years - the same time scale that the A320 may become obsolete.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:19 pm

We have to think about, that an all new fuselage and wing is expected to bring only 5 to 6 % reduction in fuel burn. Part of that through aerodynamics part of it through weight reduction.

One should think about that the A310 did already have a supercritical profil. The A320 wing also got a supercritical profil. It was a very modern wing in it´s time and I have my doubts that the newer 737NG wing is actually more modern or more effective. IMO it is the other way round.

In 2006, the aerodynamic upgrades to the A320-200 wing brought 1 % fuel burn reduction. The upgrade to the wingtip devices brought 2 % fuel burn reduction.
Together that brought a 3% fuel burn reduction.
The wing on the A321 is not the unchanged wing from the A320 in 1988. It came straight away with different flaps and trailing edge extension adding 4 m2 of wing area. The wing was profiled for added lift. The wing went trough the same upgrade program as the A320 wing, with 3 % fuel burn redaction.

There are projects to upgrade the A320 wing further. One of them, the all electrical wing, would not be visible on the outside. It would simplify the frame and reduce weight. The actuators in the wing would go from hydraulic to electric hydraulic, replacing hydraulic lines with electrical cables, the main advantage would be lower weight.

The A321neoXLR is expected to present an iteration of the current wing in the same size. More aerodynamic work on the wing itself and with newer, simpler, more effective flaps. Those changes I expect to flow down to the older models of the A320 family.

Current orders for the A320 family frames are coming in fast and increase the distance to the orders for the 737 family. I expect the next 5 to 10 years will see a big concentration at Airbus to streamline production in their own production facilities and help the suppliers to up the rates in the supply line.
I expect Airbus to bring small but steady improvements to the A320 family during those years.

I do not expect Airbus to come with a replacement before Boeing makes a move and perhaps not even than.
 
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smithbs
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:25 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
...


If you say so, but I'm just saying: When business managers look at projects, one option is always "do nothing," and the costs on that line are pretty close to zero unless they can claim lost market share as a future cost. That doesn't seem to be a worry with the A320 series right now, nor for years into the future.

If anything they should be concentrating on operations and margins. It's nice to have a hot selling product, but you still have to fabricate it to meet demand and make money off it while doing so.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:04 pm

smithbs wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
...


If you say so, but I'm just saying: When business managers look at projects, one option is always "do nothing," and the costs on that line are pretty close to zero unless they can claim lost market share as a future cost.


smithbs wrote:
Airbus can pretty much do nothing and print money with the A320 series for years to come, and that's probably going to weigh heavily on their business analysis for scoping future projects.



I am not sure of your point here. When I quoted you, I agreed with you
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:08 pm

astuteman wrote:

I'd argue about the 10 years - 8 maybe, although all the Boeing NMA/FSA threads seem to think it could be done quicker.


If and only if they don't totally stuff it up. Exhibit A: the 787. Exhibit B: the A380. Props to Airbus for getting the A350 out only six months late, though.

But Boeing started to think about what would become the 787 as early as the late 1990s. Their first blush was the Sonic Cruiser. So Airbus needs to start thinking about the successor to the A320 family now because in 10-15 years, it will be time to start delivering that product.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
VSMUT
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:31 pm

DocLightning wrote:
astuteman wrote:

I'd argue about the 10 years - 8 maybe, although all the Boeing NMA/FSA threads seem to think it could be done quicker.


If and only if they don't totally stuff it up. Exhibit A: the 787. Exhibit B: the A380. Props to Airbus for getting the A350 out only six months late, though.

But Boeing started to think about what would become the 787 as early as the late 1990s. Their first blush was the Sonic Cruiser. So Airbus needs to start thinking about the successor to the A320 family now because in 10-15 years, it will be time to start delivering that product.


In fairness, Airbus has been working on technology for the next narrowbody for a while now. The A340 BLADE demonstrator is a clear indication of that. There is no doubt they are already working on clean-sheet A320 successors, and have probably been looking into it for more than 10 years.
The big question is what Airbus is going to do when the need for an A320neo replacement comes up. The clean sheet design will surely be pitted against concepts of yet another A320 warmover.
 
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smithbs
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:46 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
smithbs wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
...


If you say so, but I'm just saying: When business managers look at projects, one option is always "do nothing," and the costs on that line are pretty close to zero unless they can claim lost market share as a future cost.


smithbs wrote:
Airbus can pretty much do nothing and print money with the A320 series for years to come, and that's probably going to weigh heavily on their business analysis for scoping future projects.



I am not sure of your point here. When I quoted you, I agreed with you


Ah, sorry. My apologies.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:47 pm

DocLightning wrote:
astuteman wrote:

I'd argue about the 10 years - 8 maybe, although all the Boeing NMA/FSA threads seem to think it could be done quicker.


If and only if they don't totally stuff it up. Exhibit A: the 787. Exhibit B: the A380. Props to Airbus for getting the A350 out only six months late, though.

But Boeing started to think about what would become the 787 as early as the late 1990s. Their first blush was the Sonic Cruiser. So Airbus needs to start thinking about the successor to the A320 family now because in 10-15 years, it will be time to start delivering that product.


I would rather say the sonic cruiser was a failed project and Boeing than started on the 787.
 
sabby
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:00 pm

As much as I'd love to see more C-series--errm--A220 in the sky, why would Airbus give more preference to a project where they get 50.5% of the profit against their own aircraft where they get 100% profit ? Unless Airbus buy out the program completely AND somehow upgrade the cockpit to have commonality with A320/A330/A350 which I'm not even sure if possible, they will continue to to sell more A320s. If Boeing do launch NSA/NMA before 2025, I can see Airbus launch A322 with new wing and technologies and use the new wing on A321 for even longer payload-range. They probably have several concepts/designs ready for next generation single isle and small twin isle but won't commit until the operation cost advantage is large enough AND are sure about the demand, growth potential and a stronger economy.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:01 pm

I don't see why Airbus would need a clean-sheet replacement for the A320. It does need a new wing, particularly as continued improvements push payload-range ever further.

I would think the next generation of engines would do just fine on a version of the A320 that is (a) re-winged and (b) stretched three to four rows from both the current A320 and A321.
 
workhorse
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:27 pm

My guess is:

- A320-family fuselage to be able to use most of the already existing manufacturing infrastructure
- fuselage length somewhere between the 757-200 and 757-300
- new composite folding wing with a span of 36 meters when folded (to fit into C-gates) and 40+ meters unfolded
- new taller landing gear to fit future generations of high-bypass engines and to increase the rotation angle (design facilitated by the new wing so as to keep the changes inside the fuselage minimal)
- new nose section to fit the new taller nose landing gear and a new cockpit
- maximum flight time of ~11 hours (= range of ~4500nm) which is the maximum you need if you stay in the "1 route = 1 aircraft" scheduling model
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:33 am

tommy1808 wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
The wing is still 31 years old this month. That's a year older than I am. Also, those are just small updates and not a new variant.


All life on this planet is the result of small changes that didn't constitute new variants. That approach can be incredibly efficient....

Also, where are all of the Motorola 68000's going to come from? ;)


From companies that have the license to make them. In industry new doesn't equal better. Fast enough with proven reliability does. I had many really sad customers when the (40Mhz) 386sx was discontinued just over a decade ago.

NXP still makes 68k CPUs and even still makes 68k MCUs they recommend for new designs....

Best regards
Thomas


I guess I find it very sad that the 767/A310 wing is considered a dinosaur despite being only being 6 years older, and nothing has been able to beat the A320-200 wing in the last three decades.

Us Generation X and Y engineers truly are useless :(
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
tommy1808
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:40 am

1989worstyear wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
The wing is still 31 years old this month. That's a year older than I am. Also, those are just small updates and not a new variant.


All life on this planet is the result of small changes that didn't constitute new variants. That approach can be incredibly efficient....

Also, where are all of the Motorola 68000's going to come from? ;)


From companies that have the license to make them. In industry new doesn't equal better. Fast enough with proven reliability does. I had many really sad customers when the (40Mhz) 386sx was discontinued just over a decade ago.

NXP still makes 68k CPUs and even still makes 68k MCUs they recommend for new designs....

Best regards
Thomas


I guess I find it very sad that the 767/A310 wing is considered a dinosaur


The A310 wing is still great by today's standards....

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4993
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:52 am

Because the 737 might well be done? Once they're re-engineered the MCAS system? They may be selling them for Cost plus 5-6 per cent. Just to clear the books. and that would lead up to a new Model I hope would be based on the 757 and Include 777 and 787 features with all digital Techno;ogy that reports it's own faults and system health status, and get Rid of that cramped cockpit and cargo pit.
 
mjoelnir
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Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:12 am

1989worstyear wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
The wing is still 31 years old this month. That's a year older than I am. Also, those are just small updates and not a new variant.


All life on this planet is the result of small changes that didn't constitute new variants. That approach can be incredibly efficient....

Also, where are all of the Motorola 68000's going to come from? ;)


From companies that have the license to make them. In industry new doesn't equal better. Fast enough with proven reliability does. I had many really sad customers when the (40Mhz) 386sx was discontinued just over a decade ago.

NXP still makes 68k CPUs and even still makes 68k MCUs they recommend for new designs....

Best regards
Thomas


I guess I find it very sad that the 767/A310 wing is considered a dinosaur despite being only being 6 years older, and nothing has been able to beat the A320-200 wing in the last three decades.

Us Generation X and Y engineers truly are useless :(


One should stop measuring modernity with age. The A310 wing is very efficient and has a super critical profile. I do not know if it is possible to built a wing much more advanced when keeping to aluminium. I do not exclude that there are possibilities like better wing tip devices, there are newer designs. Better flaps, there are also newer designs and it is perhaps possible to do some work on gaps and fairings.
Furthermore the wing was right sized to the smaller frame compared to the A300, that made it practical a new frame instead of a just simply a shrink.
The A310 wing design was done at a division of BAe or British Aerospace, A division later bought by Airbus.

I would not be astonished, if the A320 and A330 wings were just scaled versions of the A310 wing.

Take the fuselage and wings from the A310, add the cockpit from the A330, same dimensions, slap some new engines under it. Do some work on the wing tip devices, new flaps and some aerodynamic clean up, like for example the wing fairings and I am not so sure that that would not be viable cheaper alternative to the MNA.

The A310 also used a decent amount of fiber-reinforced composite, like for example for the vertical stabilizer.

The main problem will be to find engines that fit. 55 to 60,000 lbs would be right size. I would assume that from the available engines the GEnx-2B would come nearest.
Or if the NMA would really materialize, its engine.
 
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hongkongflyer
Posts: 806
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:19 am

william wrote:
You do know that the A220 has no cockpit commonality with the rest of the Airbus products. Just read in the latest ATW, interview with EasyJet CEO, the reason they will not order the A220, its not part of the A320 family. From the article, " We do not want the complexity."

So if A220 is the future, Airbus is going to have spend some big bucks and redo the A220 cockpit systems.


If their order is big enough, I am sure Airbus will more then happy to modify the cockpit system for them.
Fedex even modified their ascent DC10s cockpit into the one their MD11s has when those DC10s were considered not "young".
So modify it for a completely new fleet is not that impossible.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:42 am

LaunchDetected wrote:
I don't think there will be a new clean-sheet aircraft before the introduction of several game-changing technologies like 1-pilot flight deck or Ultra-fan-like engines.

Obviously, it depends also of Boeing choices.

I wouldn't fly in a 1 pilot aircraft. Yes airplanes are incredibly automated nowadays, but the one thing automation sucks at is adapting to situations as they occur. And when those situations occur, I want two people at the helm solving them, not one. Also, remember German Wings?
 
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kmz
Posts: 175
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:31 am

I also assume that the question that occupies Airbus considering the new A/C design is how electric the propulsion is going to be. Or if they have to develop an additional electric A/C line

I don’t think they will consider a new A320 wing, as the current one, i assume, is grandfathered
 
RJMAZ
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Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:24 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Take the fuselage and wings from the A310, add the cockpit from the A330, same dimensions, slap some new engines under it. Do some work on the wing tip devices, new flaps and some aerodynamic clean up, like for example the wing fairings and I am not so sure that that would not be viable cheaper alternative to the MNA.

I actually think this would have been a slam dunk for Airbus. It could have been launched between the A330/A340 combo and the A380.

The trent 500 would have been perfect for a A310NEO. Range would have been pushed up to 5500-5600nm. That would have allowed for a simple stretch close to A300 length and this would have created a very efficient 4000nm aircraft. More efficient and lighter than a bigger winged A300NEO. It would have maintained some distance between the slightly larger but much longer ranged A330-200.

I actually think we will see the A330 cross section used on another MOM aircraft in 10 years or so. This will be the Airbus response to the Boeing NMA/797 and will sit just above it in size. A full carbon code D wing and two new fuselage lengths both sitting somewhere between the current A330-800 and the old A310. MTOW will be well below 200t and empty weight well below 100t. Effectively sitting at the same range as the original A330.
 
RJMAZ
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Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:27 pm

I actually think the A320 family will be in production for another 30 years.

It will definitely get another set of engines even if/when Boeing creates a clean sheet 737 replacement. The A320 will sell well based on availability and will capitalise on any delayd. It would also get the same engines that Boeing uses.
 
Mortyman
Posts: 5860
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:26 pm

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:40 pm

Nah, Give us an Airbus 340 neo instead … ;-)
 
CowAnon
Posts: 132
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:03 am

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:51 pm

How to move away from the A320 family, the hard way:

  • Boeing builds a clean-sheet 2-2-2 or 2-3-2 configuration plane to replace the 737.
  • Right before the new Boeing plane reaches EIS, the FAA changes regulations to require that all passengers be no more than one seat away from an aisle, while becoming extremely strict with grandfathering at the same time.

If the FAA is in the tank for Boeing as much as some people believe, this A220/A320-crushing scenario is at least plausible. Don't expect the world's traveling public to object to this rule change.

Other than that, I think the only way to force Airbus to abandon the A320 is for Boeing (or some other competitor) to build a clean-sheet open rotor and/or blended-wing body aircraft.
 
Sokes
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:56 pm

From what I learned why Airbus needs an A320 replacement:
1) To lower maintenance cost.
2) ?

A new wing is necessary for higher MTOW versions, but there is the 35 m gate trouble. Moreover the A220 teaches us that cost of carbon wings first has to come down.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2223
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:07 pm

Why replace such a great aircraft. It will be in production for decades.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 24396
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:24 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
I wouldn't fly in a 1 pilot aircraft. Yes airplanes are incredibly automated nowadays, but the one thing automation sucks at is adapting to situations as they occur. And when those situations occur, I want two people at the helm solving them, not one. Also, remember German Wings?

Actually the 1 pilot aircraft are being designed to be monitored from the ground with the ground monitor able to take over the flying.

If we ever have a pilot incapacitation scenario, be it due to physical or mental health issues, the cabin crew can push a "help" button and the ground will take over.

So we could say pax would have been safer with the future 1 pilot aircraft than they were in the German Wings scenario.

Besides, we know all the money the airlines save not paying pilots will be returned to passengers in the form of cheaper tickets, right? :biggrin:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
cuban8
Posts: 254
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:54 pm

LaunchDetected wrote:
I don't think there will be a new clean-sheet aircraft before the introduction of several game-changing technologies like 1-pilot flight deck or Ultra-fan-like engines.

Obviously, it depends also of Boeing choices.

You are well informed. This is actually where things are heading the upcoming years.
When business goes to hell, you get rid of three things. Your private jet, your yacht and your mistress..........and most importantly in that order.
~ Russian Billionaire ~
 
bspc
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:07 pm

Yeah I don’t think a “clean sheet” A320 is necessary in the near future. There is an extensive backlog and that is expected to grow with new orders over the next few years to come. Perhaps ifBoeing comes up with something that could distract airlines away from the A320 Family than it needs to be looked at. Otherwise, incremental updates are probably the best bet.

One thing that could hold the future is the A220. If Airbus can figure out how to make a bigger one, perhaps that could be the next A320 replacement beyond the current state.
 
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SierraPacific
Posts: 435
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:26 am

Revelation wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I wouldn't fly in a 1 pilot aircraft. Yes airplanes are incredibly automated nowadays, but the one thing automation sucks at is adapting to situations as they occur. And when those situations occur, I want two people at the helm solving them, not one. Also, remember German Wings?

Actually the 1 pilot aircraft are being designed to be monitored from the ground with the ground monitor able to take over the flying.

If we ever have a pilot incapacitation scenario, be it due to physical or mental health issues, the cabin crew can push a "help" button and the ground will take over.

So we could say pax would have been safer with the future 1 pilot aircraft than they were in the German Wings scenario.

Besides, we know all the money the airlines save not paying pilots will be returned to passengers in the form of cheaper tickets, right? :biggrin:


That would require a 100 percent unhackable satellite link and accompanying infrastructure, a single-pilot pay scale that is going to be way higher than what a two pilot jet would be, and the reversal of everything we have learned about single-pilot aircraft in the last 50 years.

Just tad bit more expensive than a person in the right seat :duck:

I do not see a single-pilot being a good option within the timeframe that we are discussing due to the pandora's box that it opens.
 
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william
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:57 am

RJMAZ wrote:
I actually think the A320 family will be in production for another 30 years.

It will definitely get another set of engines even if/when Boeing creates a clean sheet 737 replacement. The A320 will sell well based on availability and will capitalise on any delayd. It would also get the same engines that Boeing uses.


Yeah, ironic isn't it. The A320 may have a production as long as the venerable 737.
 
speedbird52
Posts: 1013
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:30 am

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:24 am

Revelation wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I wouldn't fly in a 1 pilot aircraft. Yes airplanes are incredibly automated nowadays, but the one thing automation sucks at is adapting to situations as they occur. And when those situations occur, I want two people at the helm solving them, not one. Also, remember German Wings?

Actually the 1 pilot aircraft are being designed to be monitored from the ground with the ground monitor able to take over the flying.

If we ever have a pilot incapacitation scenario, be it due to physical or mental health issues, the cabin crew can push a "help" button and the ground will take over.

So we could say pax would have been safer with the future 1 pilot aircraft than they were in the German Wings scenario.

Besides, we know all the money the airlines save not paying pilots will be returned to passengers in the form of cheaper tickets, right? :biggrin:

I was not aware about that. Very interesting but isn't the potential for cyber terrorism huge here?
 
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Revelation
Posts: 24396
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Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:00 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I wouldn't fly in a 1 pilot aircraft. Yes airplanes are incredibly automated nowadays, but the one thing automation sucks at is adapting to situations as they occur. And when those situations occur, I want two people at the helm solving them, not one. Also, remember German Wings?

Actually the 1 pilot aircraft are being designed to be monitored from the ground with the ground monitor able to take over the flying.

If we ever have a pilot incapacitation scenario, be it due to physical or mental health issues, the cabin crew can push a "help" button and the ground will take over.

So we could say pax would have been safer with the future 1 pilot aircraft than they were in the German Wings scenario.

Besides, we know all the money the airlines save not paying pilots will be returned to passengers in the form of cheaper tickets, right? :biggrin:

I was not aware about that. Very interesting but isn't the potential for cyber terrorism huge here?

Sure, but we already have a lot of remotely operated vehicles hackers would love to pwn (think military drones and satellites) yet their technology marches on. By the time this stuff becomes real the assessment will be made as how to address challenges such as pilot incapacitation or cyber hacking. No way to know what the outcome is right now. There are still a lot of challenges like developing the AI to do the flying and developing the high bandwidth civilian network needed to do remote piloting

Some interesting links:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3474690-a ... s-cto-says

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -o-461135/

One interesting quote from Airbus's CTO:

Artificial intelligence will be the differentiating factor that will make planes autonomous, and passengers will be able to adapt to the new technologies, Vittadini says, adding that an earlier generation "would have never stepped into an elevator without a lift boy. Today, an elevator ride is nothing exciting or of concern to any of us."

It'll be interesting to see if the A320 replacement is one of the first single pilot capable airliners, or one of the last two pilot airliners.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13971
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:12 pm

Revelation wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Actually the 1 pilot aircraft are being designed to be monitored from the ground with the ground monitor able to take over the flying.

If we ever have a pilot incapacitation scenario, be it due to physical or mental health issues, the cabin crew can push a "help" button and the ground will take over.

So we could say pax would have been safer with the future 1 pilot aircraft than they were in the German Wings scenario.

Besides, we know all the money the airlines save not paying pilots will be returned to passengers in the form of cheaper tickets, right? :biggrin:

I was not aware about that. Very interesting but isn't the potential for cyber terrorism huge here?

Sure, but we already have a lot of remotely operated vehicles hackers would love to pwn (think military drones and satellites) yet their technology marches on. By the time this stuff becomes real the assessment will be made as how to address challenges such as pilot incapacitation or cyber hacking. No way to know what the outcome is right now. There are still a lot of challenges like developing the AI to do the flying and developing the high bandwidth civilian network needed to do remote piloting

Some interesting links:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3474690-a ... s-cto-says

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -o-461135/

One interesting quote from Airbus's CTO:

Artificial intelligence will be the differentiating factor that will make planes autonomous, and passengers will be able to adapt to the new technologies, Vittadini says, adding that an earlier generation "would have never stepped into an elevator without a lift boy. Today, an elevator ride is nothing exciting or of concern to any of us."

It'll be interesting to see if the A320 replacement is one of the first single pilot capable airliners, or one of the last two pilot airliners.


I think single pilot operations wouldn't be the major driver for a A320 replacement. Maybe you could even adjust existing A320s. Interesting factors would be, pilots keep each other sharp, awake, motivated, automatically monitor each other for small signs of e.g. discomfort, stress etc. Automatically train, coach each other, listen, how to replace that..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
Posts: 2745
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:19 pm

Revelation wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Actually the 1 pilot aircraft are being designed to be monitored from the ground with the ground monitor able to take over the flying.

If we ever have a pilot incapacitation scenario, be it due to physical or mental health issues, the cabin crew can push a "help" button and the ground will take over.

So we could say pax would have been safer with the future 1 pilot aircraft than they were in the German Wings scenario.

Besides, we know all the money the airlines save not paying pilots will be returned to passengers in the form of cheaper tickets, right? :biggrin:

I was not aware about that. Very interesting but isn't the potential for cyber terrorism huge here?

Sure, but we already have a lot of remotely operated vehicles hackers would love to pwn (think military drones and satellites) yet their technology marches on. By the time this stuff becomes real the assessment will be made as how to address challenges such as pilot incapacitation or cyber hacking. No way to know what the outcome is right now. There are still a lot of challenges like developing the AI to do the flying and developing the high bandwidth civilian network needed to do remote piloting

Some interesting links:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3474690-a ... s-cto-says

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -o-461135/

One interesting quote from Airbus's CTO:

Artificial intelligence will be the differentiating factor that will make planes autonomous, and passengers will be able to adapt to the new technologies, Vittadini says, adding that an earlier generation "would have never stepped into an elevator without a lift boy. Today, an elevator ride is nothing exciting or of concern to any of us."

It'll be interesting to see if the A320 replacement is one of the first single pilot capable airliners, or one of the last two pilot airliners.


Actually - they just need Garmin Autoland - Hit the Big red button https://cirrusaircraft.com/cirrus-aircr ... -autoland/
 
morrisond
Posts: 2745
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Opinion: Airbus and how to move away from the A320 family

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:20 pm

keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I was not aware about that. Very interesting but isn't the potential for cyber terrorism huge here?

Sure, but we already have a lot of remotely operated vehicles hackers would love to pwn (think military drones and satellites) yet their technology marches on. By the time this stuff becomes real the assessment will be made as how to address challenges such as pilot incapacitation or cyber hacking. No way to know what the outcome is right now. There are still a lot of challenges like developing the AI to do the flying and developing the high bandwidth civilian network needed to do remote piloting

Some interesting links:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3474690-a ... s-cto-says

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -o-461135/

One interesting quote from Airbus's CTO:

Artificial intelligence will be the differentiating factor that will make planes autonomous, and passengers will be able to adapt to the new technologies, Vittadini says, adding that an earlier generation "would have never stepped into an elevator without a lift boy. Today, an elevator ride is nothing exciting or of concern to any of us."

It'll be interesting to see if the A320 replacement is one of the first single pilot capable airliners, or one of the last two pilot airliners.


I think single pilot operations wouldn't be the major driver for a A320 replacement. Maybe you could even adjust existing A320s. Interesting factors would be, pilots keep each other sharp, awake, motivated, automatically monitor each other for small signs of e.g. discomfort, stress etc. Automatically train, coach each other, listen, how to replace that..


There is always an iPad course..

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