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PacoMartin
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Operational Profit history for four major airlines

Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:55 am

Who are you betting on in the long term?
Year   ..AA          ..DL   ..WN   ..UA
2019   +06.5%   +13.4%   +13.3%   +09.4%
2018   +06.1%   +12.4%   +14.6%   +08.0%
2017   +09.6%   +14.8%   +16.6%   +09.3%
2016   +13.1%   +17.5%   +18.4%   +11.9%
2015   +15.0%   +19.2%   +20.8%   +13.6%
2014   +08.6%   +07.2%   +12.0%   +06.1%
2013   +05.8%   +10.1%   +07.2%   +03.3%
2012   +00.2%   +07.2%   +03.8%   +00.1%
2011   -04.9%   +06.4%   +04.8%   +04.2%
2010   +00.7%   +08.2%   +08.2%   +06.4%
2009   -05.8%   -02.9%   +02.5%   +01.5%
2008   -08.7%   +00.3%   +04.1%   -08.6%
2007   +03.1%   +05.2%   +08.0%   +04.8%
2006   +03.6%   +00.2%   +10.3%   +02.3%
2005   -01.7%   -07.4%   +10.8%   -01.4%
2004   -02.3%   -10.6%   +08.5%   -07.4%
2003   -08.3%   -08.1%   +08.1%   -11.6%
2002   -20.9%   -08.3%   +07.6%   -21.7%
2001   -16.4%   -07.4%   +11.4%   -23.3%
2000   +06.9%   +09.5%   +18.1%   +03.8%
1999   +06.2%   +11.6%   +16.5%   +07.6%
1998   +10.7%   +12.3%   +16.4%   +08.2%
1997   +09.1%   +11.4%   +13.7%   +07.1%
1996   +08.8%   +04.3%   +10.3%   +06.9%
1995   +06.2%   +08.3%   +10.7%   +05.6%
1994   +06.1%   -01.7%   +12.0%   +03.7%
1993   +03.8%   -02.2%   +13.6%   +02.1%
1992   -00.6%   -07.1%   +10.8%   -03.9%
1991   +00.1%   -02.6%   +04.7%   -04.2%
1990   +00.6%   -02.7%   +06.9%   -00.5%


What would a dollar a decade ago be worth today if had similar gains
Year ..AA ..DL ..WN ..UA
2019 $1.78 $2.99 $3.06 $2.00
2018 $1.67 $2.63 $2.70 $1.83
2017 $1.57 $2.34 $2.36 $1.69
2016 $1.43 $2.04 $2.02 $1.55
2015 $1.27 $1.74 $1.71 $1.38
2014 $1.10 $1.46 $1.41 $1.22
2013 $1.01 $1.36 $1.26 $1.15
2012 $0.96 $1.23 $1.18 $1.11
2011 $0.96 $1.15 $1.13 $1.11
2010 $1.01 $1.08 $1.08 $1.06
2009 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00
 
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DL747400
Posts: 976
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Re: Operational Profit history for four major airlines

Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:58 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Who are you betting on in the long term?
Year   ..AA          ..DL   ..WN   ..UA
2019   +06.5%   +13.4%   +13.3%   +09.4%
2018   +06.1%   +12.4%   +14.6%   +08.0%
2017   +09.6%   +14.8%   +16.6%   +09.3%
2016   +13.1%   +17.5%   +18.4%   +11.9%
2015   +15.0%   +19.2%   +20.8%   +13.6%
2014   +08.6%   +07.2%   +12.0%   +06.1%
2013   +05.8%   +10.1%   +07.2%   +03.3%
2012   +00.2%   +07.2%   +03.8%   +00.1%
2011   -04.9%   +06.4%   +04.8%   +04.2%
2010   +00.7%   +08.2%   +08.2%   +06.4%
2009   -05.8%   -02.9%   +02.5%   +01.5%
2008   -08.7%   +00.3%   +04.1%   -08.6%
2007   +03.1%   +05.2%   +08.0%   +04.8%
2006   +03.6%   +00.2%   +10.3%   +02.3%
2005   -01.7%   -07.4%   +10.8%   -01.4%
2004   -02.3%   -10.6%   +08.5%   -07.4%
2003   -08.3%   -08.1%   +08.1%   -11.6%
2002   -20.9%   -08.3%   +07.6%   -21.7%
2001   -16.4%   -07.4%   +11.4%   -23.3%
2000   +06.9%   +09.5%   +18.1%   +03.8%
1999   +06.2%   +11.6%   +16.5%   +07.6%
1998   +10.7%   +12.3%   +16.4%   +08.2%
1997   +09.1%   +11.4%   +13.7%   +07.1%
1996   +08.8%   +04.3%   +10.3%   +06.9%
1995   +06.2%   +08.3%   +10.7%   +05.6%
1994   +06.1%   -01.7%   +12.0%   +03.7%
1993   +03.8%   -02.2%   +13.6%   +02.1%
1992   -00.6%   -07.1%   +10.8%   -03.9%
1991   +00.1%   -02.6%   +04.7%   -04.2%
1990   +00.6%   -02.7%   +06.9%   -00.5%


What would a dollar a decade ago be worth today if had similar gains
Year ..AA ..DL ..WN ..UA
2019 $1.78 $2.99 $3.06 $2.00
2018 $1.67 $2.63 $2.70 $1.83
2017 $1.57 $2.34 $2.36 $1.69
2016 $1.43 $2.04 $2.02 $1.55
2015 $1.27 $1.74 $1.71 $1.38
2014 $1.10 $1.46 $1.41 $1.22
2013 $1.01 $1.36 $1.26 $1.15
2012 $0.96 $1.23 $1.18 $1.11
2011 $0.96 $1.15 $1.13 $1.11
2010 $1.01 $1.08 $1.08 $1.06
2009 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00


Thanks for taking the time to compile this data. A very interesting read indeed! I love numbers and data and math because they don't lie. People lie, but numbers don't. That said, if you continue to post data which reflects badly on AA and UA, don't be surprised if some folks get their feelings hurt and you receive a nasty note from the mods.
From First to Worst: The history of Airliners.net.

All posts reflect my opinions, not those of my employer or any other company.
 
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Polot
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Re: Operational Profit history for four major airlines

Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:13 pm

Any operational profit data pre merger (date varies depending on airline, and for some airlines means multiple mergers within this 29 year period) is effectively worthless for comparison.

A decade ago, for example, DL and NW were merging, UA and CO had just started partnering (no merger), and US and AA had not even started talks yet.

The numbers are telling me that anything can happen in the long term and to not bet on anyone.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1815
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Operational Profit history for four major airlines

Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:30 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Who are you betting on in the long term?
Year   ..AA          ..DL   ..WN   ..UA
2019   +06.5%   +13.4%   +13.3%   +09.4%
2018   +06.1%   +12.4%   +14.6%   +08.0%
2017   +09.6%   +14.8%   +16.6%   +09.3%
2016   +13.1%   +17.5%   +18.4%   +11.9%
2015   +15.0%   +19.2%   +20.8%   +13.6%
2014   +08.6%   +07.2%   +12.0%   +06.1%
2013   +05.8%   +10.1%   +07.2%   +03.3%
2012   +00.2%   +07.2%   +03.8%   +00.1%
2011   -04.9%   +06.4%   +04.8%   +04.2%
2010   +00.7%   +08.2%   +08.2%   +06.4%
2009   -05.8%   -02.9%   +02.5%   +01.5%
2008   -08.7%   +00.3%   +04.1%   -08.6%
2007   +03.1%   +05.2%   +08.0%   +04.8%
2006   +03.6%   +00.2%   +10.3%   +02.3%
2005   -01.7%   -07.4%   +10.8%   -01.4%
2004   -02.3%   -10.6%   +08.5%   -07.4%
2003   -08.3%   -08.1%   +08.1%   -11.6%
2002   -20.9%   -08.3%   +07.6%   -21.7%
2001   -16.4%   -07.4%   +11.4%   -23.3%
2000   +06.9%   +09.5%   +18.1%   +03.8%
1999   +06.2%   +11.6%   +16.5%   +07.6%
1998   +10.7%   +12.3%   +16.4%   +08.2%
1997   +09.1%   +11.4%   +13.7%   +07.1%
1996   +08.8%   +04.3%   +10.3%   +06.9%
1995   +06.2%   +08.3%   +10.7%   +05.6%
1994   +06.1%   -01.7%   +12.0%   +03.7%
1993   +03.8%   -02.2%   +13.6%   +02.1%
1992   -00.6%   -07.1%   +10.8%   -03.9%
1991   +00.1%   -02.6%   +04.7%   -04.2%
1990   +00.6%   -02.7%   +06.9%   -00.5%


What would a dollar a decade ago be worth today if had similar gains
Year ..AA ..DL ..WN ..UA
2019 $1.78 $2.99 $3.06 $2.00
2018 $1.67 $2.63 $2.70 $1.83
2017 $1.57 $2.34 $2.36 $1.69
2016 $1.43 $2.04 $2.02 $1.55
2015 $1.27 $1.74 $1.71 $1.38
2014 $1.10 $1.46 $1.41 $1.22
2013 $1.01 $1.36 $1.26 $1.15
2012 $0.96 $1.23 $1.18 $1.11
2011 $0.96 $1.15 $1.13 $1.11
2010 $1.01 $1.08 $1.08 $1.06
2009 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00

You should probably have US in your title.

I do find these numbers interesting. WN and DL have been pretty steady at the top. Interesting to see how AA has slid vs. the competition and UA seems to be rising.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 838
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Operational Profit history for four major airlines

Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:33 pm

I would not bet on any of them if this is the only metric available. Since 2015 all the mentioned carriers have diminishing operational profits and this in a period with good economical growth. This could change in the coming years, a recession or even just a few bad years and all 4 could end within one or two years again on 0% operational profit.
 
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Polot
Posts: 11224
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Operational Profit history for four major airlines

Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:22 pm

Also what exacting are you comparing when you say “operational profits” with percentages, operating margin? In which case your dollar analogy is just flat out wrong. Change in operating income YOY (that’s what your analogy kinda suggests)? In which case your percentages are all wrong.

Looking at a few reports, I can’t figure out what you are listing.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 713
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: Operational Profit history for four major airlines

Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:27 pm

Has the entire Aviation industry turned a profit by now?
Up until the recent good decade or so run the industry as a whole had lost billions more than it ever made (one of the few established industries ever to do that and still be around) but with a decade or so of Billions being made has it past the point of not being a huge money sucking hole for its entire history?
 
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PacoMartin
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Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Operational Profit history for four major airlines

Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:36 am

Polot wrote:
Also what exacting are you comparing when you say “operational profits” with percentages, operating margin?


I am showing operational profits / operational revenue (passenger tickets + mail + freight + ticket cancellation charges + baggage, etc.)

Operational Profits are Operational Revenue minus Operational Expenses.

Operational profits do not include long term debt servicing, exchange rate advantages or disadvantages or other similar finance expenses/credits. That is the difference between "operational profits" and "net income".

To go from "Operational profit/loss" to "Net income" you have to add the following amount in billions of dollars. It is usually but not always a negative number.
Year ...AA ...DL ....UA ....WN
2019 -$0.53 -$0.95 -$0.62 -$0.35
2018 -$1.07 -$1.62 -$1.16 -$0.74
2017 -$2.11 -$2.52 -$1.35 -$0.03
2016 -$2.52 -$2.57 -$2.08 -$1.52
2015 +$2.06 -$3.31 $2.13 -$1.94
2014 -$1.03 -$2.24 -$1.26 -$1.09
2013 -$3.01 +$6.71 -$0.61 -$0.52
2012 -$1.97 -$1.50 -$0.71 -$0.20
2011 -$0.80 -$1.27 -$0.61 -$0.45
2010 -$0.62 -$1.93 -$0.87 -$0.53
2009 -$0.31 -$0.39 -$0.88 -$0.16
2008 -$0.48 -$8.49 -$2.08 -$0.27
2007 -$0.35 +$0.79 -$0.60 -$0.15
2006 -$0.65 -$6.03 +$22.21 -$0.44
2005 -$0.54 -$2.60 -$20.80 -$0.27
2004 -$0.40 -$1.75 -$0.84 -$0.24
2003 +$0.13 +$0.26 -$1.53 -$0.04
2002 -$0.18 -$0.26 -$0.30 -$0.18
2001 +$1.24 -$0.14 +$1.63 -$0.12

I think most people on this forum are interested in "operational" numbers, as they want to know if operations are producing positive or negative results. The machinations of accountants that subtract $21 billion one year and add $22 billion the next year (United 2005 and 2006) are not of the same interest.

In 4th quarter of 2017 southwest took a $1.4 billion credit based on President Trump's new income tax law. I am leaving out stuff like that because it doesn't show a change in operations.

Polot wrote:
In which case your dollar analogy is just flat out wrong.

Yes I know. I treated operational profits like it was a return on your investment. I was struggling for a way to get an objective measure of the last decade. I couldn't think of anything else except to look up stock prices.
 
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PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Operational Profit history for four major airlines

Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:55 am

UpNAWAy wrote:
Has the entire Aviation industry turned a profit by now?
Up until the recent good decade or so run the industry as a whole had lost billions more than it ever made (one of the few established industries ever to do that and
still be around) but with a decade or so of Billions being made has it past the point of not being a huge money sucking hole for its entire history?


If by industry you mean the entire industry (mainlines, regional, and cargo) there have been no negative numbers for the past decade.

Operations is profit and loss from operational business. Net income includes financial considerations

values in billions of dollars
YEAR Revenue Operations Net Income
2019 $122 $11.1 $8.0 (first half of year)
2018 $240 $20.7 $15.3
2017 $222 $24.3 $16.8
2016 $209 $28.2 $15.6
2015 $205 $30.8 $26.4
2014 $208 $16.7 $8.4
2013 $200 $12.5 $12.7
2012 $196 $7.5 $0.4
2011 $193 $7.0 $1.4
2010 $175 $10.5 $3.7
2009 $155 $2.4 -$2.5
2008 $186 -$3.4 -$23.7

11 Mainline Passenger Airlines form 75% of the aviation industry by revenue
Delta Air Lines Inc.
American Airlines Inc.
United Air Lines Inc.
Southwest Airlines Co. -- Four main airlines form 55% of the aviation industry by revenue
Alaska Airlines Inc.
JetBlue Airways
Spirit Air Lines
Hawaiian Airlines Inc.
Frontier Airlines Inc.
Allegiant Air
Sun Country Airlines

ABX Air Inc
Air Transport International
Aloha Air Cargo
Amerijet International
Asia Pacific
Atlas Air Inc.
Avjet Corporation
Caribbean Sun Airlines, Inc. d/b/a World Atlantic Airlines
Compass Airlines
Eastern Airlines f/k/a Dynamic Airways, LLC
Elite Airways LLC
Endeavor Air Inc.
Envoy Air
ExpressJet Airlines LLC
Federal Express Corporation
GoJet Airlines LLC d/b/a United Express
Gulf And Caribbean Cargo
Horizon Air
Jet Aviation Flight Services, Inc.
Kalitta Air LLC
Kalitta Charters II
Lynden Air Cargo Airlines
Mesa Airlines Inc.
Miami Air International
National Air Cargo Group Inc d/ba National Airlines
Northern Air Cargo Inc.
Omni Air International LLC
Polar Air Cargo Airways
PSA Airlines Inc.
Republic Airline
Scott Aviation, LLC d/b/a Silver Air
Sky Lease Cargo
SkyWest Airlines Inc.
Southern Air Inc.
Swift Air, LLC d/b/a Eastern Air Lines d/b/a Eastern
Tatonduk Outfitters Limited d/b/a Everts Air Alaska and Everts Air Cargo
United Parcel Service
USA Jet Airlines Inc.
Western Global
XTRA Airways

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