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Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:58 am

 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:12 am

Im thinking those VA schedule reductions will only help QF/JQ and others?

Dropping SYD-CHC, and reducing SYD/AKL will help EK/QF/NZ on those routes.

VA Reducing SYD-TMW will assist QLink.

VA cutting PER-OOL will leave JQ the only airline on the route.

TT axing BNE-DRW and BNE-ADL no doubt takes the pressure off QF/JQ on those routes.

Thoughts?
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:23 am

Morrofinch wrote:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-on-verge-of-multibillion-dollar-decision-to-replace-domestic-fleet-20191029-p535fo.html

Simple Question: Airbus or Boeing?


Perhaps a combo of both? I could see value of 320/320 combo at the smaller end and earlier in the decade to replace older models, and then when offered later in the decade the 797 for the larger end and Asia to replace 330s. The 321s could then be shuffled off to Jetstar franchises. 320 family across the group Gives a lot of flexibility that the 737Max can’t across the group. Not to mention not the best publicity atm. But I feel the 797 is needed if ever launched for SYD/MEL/BNE/Asia.
320/321+797+789+PS fleet seems acceptable scale given the size of QF group operations.

No idea what would replace the 717 and F100.
 
timtam
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:58 am

vhebb wrote:

TT axing BNE-DRW and BNE-ADL no doubt takes the pressure off QF/JQ on those routes.

Thoughts?


The only company that TT really puts pressure on is VA itself through its negative brand equity impact and ongoing losses.
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:04 am

An767 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Here we go, Virgin Australia is axing MEL-HKG. No surprise there!

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-flights


And after the olympics in Tokyo next year, will we see the headline " Virgin axes Tokyo"
Nothing but a basket case of an airline IMHO

An767


Japan is a very popular holiday destination ATM, and I suspect probably even more so with the goings on in HK. A good option for those with Velocity membership, even for those SYD & MEL pax who have to transit BNE.
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:14 am

Morrofinch wrote:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-on-verge-of-multibillion-dollar-decision-to-replace-domestic-fleet-20191029-p535fo.html

Simple Question: Airbus or Boeing?


Theyve been told through the media to sharpen their pitch decks for sure...
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:06 am

vhebb wrote:
Im thinking those VA schedule reductions will only help QF/JQ and others?

Dropping SYD-CHC, and reducing SYD/AKL will help EK/QF/NZ on those routes.

VA Reducing SYD-TMW will assist QLink.

VA cutting PER-OOL will leave JQ the only airline on the route.

TT axing BNE-DRW and BNE-ADL no doubt takes the pressure off QF/JQ on those routes.

Thoughts?


Scurrah has made it clear that they will go for profitability over chasing market share.

SYD-CHC, EK hasn't been doing well either lately, the last 2 BITRE figures have been in to 40's. Even with VA making the latest cuts they still offer more capacity on their own metal then what they did in the NZ alliance

As for PER-OOL, this is only operated for usually 2 weeks at a time during peak periods only, the exception is summer holidays where it operates for most of the holiday period, last service will be mid Jan 20. Not sure how you think JQ will benefit for this

Regarding TT currently they have 1 more aircraft than what they did a couple of months ago, so once the 2 A320's are moved from service they will technically only be short 1 aircraft, than what they have been operating with. ADL-BNE will see VA operate an extra 5 weekly services. They also are committed to moving to an all 737 fleet, however that wont be effective until 2023.

Overall VA has already cut domestic capacity by 1.5% and the first half for next year will see it cut by 2%. With the 3 F100's being retired, which will be consumed for parts for the rest of the fleet, there will also be more 737 flying within WA, though most of that will be RFP

While QF/JQ may benefit from some of these cuts, in the past has also benefitted from QF/JQ cuts, so I wouldn't really being making a big deal of it
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:33 am

qf789 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
Obzerva wrote:

Interesting they’re not exiting the HKG market altogether, so they must see some sort of future there.


If I were VA, I’d look to no focus primarily on BNE and maybe expand there- aim to own one market, not scatter gun approach across MEL/SYD/BNE. But I feel it could be too late after QFs expansion to the US


The A332 from HKG will be redirected to HND

Other cancelled routes include

SYD-CHC
PER-OOL/CBR

Reductions
SYD-TMW reduces from double daily to 6 weekly
SYD-PQQ increased by 4 weekly
AKL-SYD down from 19 to 14 weekly
ADL-BNE increasing by 5 weekly replacing TT

Resuming MEL-DPS during Easter 20

TT axing BNE-DRW, PPP-SYD, ADL-BNE

3 F100’s out from March , 2 A320’s leaving TT


Tamworth is only 12 weekly at the moment, 6 weekly RON and 5 weekly early afternoon turn. Assuming they keep the RON turn they can still compete for corporate traffic doing day trips to Sydney, but the leisure traffic predominantly goes by road so if they are only keeping the flights in the middle of the day I'd expect them to can the route in less than 12 months as the traffic won't be there to sustain it.

Other than that none of the domestic cuts are particularly earth shattering.
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getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:48 am

Didn't VA start HKG to increase profitability?
I'm that bad type.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:52 am

getluv wrote:
Didn't VA start HKG to increase profitability?


HKG was started at the whim of part owners HNA (apparently with backing from all except SQ) to get around HKG bilateral limits (which is full on the HKG end).

Now that HNA is in financial trouble themselves and are actively looking at selling their stake in VA, HKG decreased in importance over time.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:06 am

SCFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:
Didn't VA start HKG to increase profitability?


HKG was started at the whim of part owners HNA (apparently with backing from all except SQ) to get around HKG bilateral limits (which is full on the HKG end).

Now that HNA is in financial trouble themselves and are actively looking at selling their stake in VA, HKG decreased in importance over time.


Current unrest is probably something they didnt bank on either....
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:16 am

SCFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:
Didn't VA start HKG to increase profitability?


HKG was started at the whim of part owners HNA (apparently with backing from all except SQ) to get around HKG bilateral limits (which is full on the HKG end).

Now that HNA is in financial trouble themselves and are actively looking at selling their stake in VA, HKG decreased in importance over time.


I understand the bilateral thing, but that was convenient. The whole point of the HNA capital was to help VA get back to profitability.

I mean clearly they were trying to make HKG work with the VS JV. You can blame the riots but the routes weren’t working from day 1. Props for trying though, I guess. Alienate a few shareholders, piss off your loyalty base, a new all time low in the share price is all they have to show for after that exercise.

If PS thinks BNE-HND is going to be a pot of gold after a few years he’s clearly hasn’t learned from this latest episode.

If the HND slot didn’t come up, I’m sure MEL-HKG would have continued. Again, this is all about convenience.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:22 am

If those are the only cuts then not as bad as I thought... or should I stay tuned for more?
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:28 am

eta unknown wrote:
If those are the only cuts then not as bad as I thought... or should I stay tuned for more?


If they’d cut anymore they’d have to start selling aircraft to make up for it.
I'm that bad type.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:00 am

eta unknown wrote:
If those are the only cuts then not as bad as I thought... or should I stay tuned for more?


Im not sure I see it as negatively as that for HND.

HNA didn’t actively try to use VA to its best, basically VA had to do all the leg work for HKG as all HX could do was CNS/OOL which got pulled.

VA then started interlining with Hong Kong Express which was gobbled up by CX.
VA and VS were smart enough to then forge an agreement together for the flights via HkG, which being honest wasn’t enough to save the route but did contribute a bit you’d imagine.

Then the HKG protests started. VA couldn’t win if they tried.

On the flip side, they saw an opportunity with HND and a partner in NH who brought more to the table.
They already fly to both SYD and PER, why wouldn’t VA make that jump if they saw greener pastures.

VA haven’t completely abandoned HKG, they’ll keep the SYD presence, but what they need, and VA do badly is they need a full agreement with NH on codeshares and access to routes from the start, not the drip feed method they constantly seem to do.
Examples, SQ partnership launching without MI until later on.
AC partnership and how long till you could earn status credits
HA codeshare only on the SYD flight until recently
VA codeshare on the other HNA group flights but travel agents unable to ticket on the VA flight number.

VA need to it properly, full access, reciprocal rights, etc from the get go.
I’d like to say they’ll do it, but their track record is patchy.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:31 am

Obzerva wrote:
[
VA haven’t completely abandoned HKG, they’ll keep the SYD presence, but what they need, and VA do badly is they need a full agreement with NH on codeshares and access to routes from the start, not the drip feed method they constantly seem to do.
Examples, SQ partnership launching without MI until later on.
AC partnership and how long till you could earn status credits
HA codeshare only on the SYD flight until recently
VA codeshare on the other HNA group flights but travel agents unable to ticket on the VA flight number.

VA need to it properly, full access, reciprocal rights, etc from the get go.
I’d like to say they’ll do it, but their track record is patchy.

I believe it- I've been on the receiving end of VA's internal staffing issues- it once took 9 months (and 5 different VA staff) to renegotiate an SPA agreement.

Have the redundancies started at BNE's Virgin Village?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:58 am

Obzerva wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
If those are the only cuts then not as bad as I thought... or should I stay tuned for more?


Im not sure I see it as negatively as that for HND.

HNA didn’t actively try to use VA to its best, basically VA had to do all the leg work for HKG as all HX could do was CNS/OOL which got pulled.

VA then started interlining with Hong Kong Express which was gobbled up by CX.
VA and VS were smart enough to then forge an agreement together for the flights via HkG, which being honest wasn’t enough to save the route but did contribute a bit you’d imagine.

Then the HKG protests started. VA couldn’t win if they tried.

On the flip side, they saw an opportunity with HND and a partner in NH who brought more to the table.
They already fly to both SYD and PER, why wouldn’t VA make that jump if they saw greener pastures.

VA haven’t completely abandoned HKG, they’ll keep the SYD presence, but what they need, and VA do badly is they need a full agreement with NH on codeshares and access to routes from the start, not the drip feed method they constantly seem to do.
Examples, SQ partnership launching without MI until later on.
AC partnership and how long till you could earn status credits
HA codeshare only on the SYD flight until recently
VA codeshare on the other HNA group flights but travel agents unable to ticket on the VA flight number.

VA need to it properly, full access, reciprocal rights, etc from the get go.
I’d like to say they’ll do it, but their track record is patchy.


I do wonder if part of the reason for the poor execution of partnerships is the limitations of their IT infrastructure. The cheap, stripped down version of Sabre they use has really limited functionality. In many ways it is barely any better than Navitaire. They tripped over a pound to pick up a penny with that decision IMHO.
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81819
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:12 am

getluv wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:
Didn't VA start HKG to increase profitability?


HKG was started at the whim of part owners HNA (apparently with backing from all except SQ) to get around HKG bilateral limits (which is full on the HKG end).

Now that HNA is in financial trouble themselves and are actively looking at selling their stake in VA, HKG decreased in importance over time.


I understand the bilateral thing, but that was convenient. The whole point of the HNA capital was to help VA get back to profitability.

I mean clearly they were trying to make HKG work with the VS JV. You can blame the riots but the routes weren’t working from day 1. Props for trying though, I guess. Alienate a few shareholders, piss off your loyalty base, a new all time low in the share price is all they have to show for after that exercise.

If PS thinks BNE-HND is going to be a pot of gold after a few years he’s clearly hasn’t learned from this latest episode.

If the HND slot didn’t come up, I’m sure MEL-HKG would have continued. Again, this is all about convenience.


If I remember correctly the Australian market represents something like 30% pf Cathay Pacific's capacity. A such, if Hong Kong airlines (and the HNA Group) wanted to place itself in a position as a Cathay Pacific competitor it really needed to service the Australian market.

For what ever reason, Hong Kong Airlines was not able to take advantage of VA servicing the AUS-HKG routes. I suspect their financial troubles limited their ability to develop the market.
 
81819
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:28 am

getluv wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
If those are the only cuts then not as bad as I thought... or should I stay tuned for more?


If they’d cut anymore they’d have to start selling aircraft to make up for it.


I think a part of the cuts includes reducing their fleet size by two A320's and three F100's.

On a per seat basis that will be close to a 3.5% reduction in domestic capacity.

With no new 737MAX's coming until 2022, there could be more reductions in capacity as the A320's leave the carrier.
 
NZ516
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:37 am

Tiger should just be absorbed into VA and the 320s sold off.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:51 am

Sad to see VA cut MEL-HKG but certainly not unexpected. It is certainly a risk that they will exit HKG from SYD also if conditions don’t rebound significantly over the next 6 months or so.

Still goes to show the overall strength of the SYD market to HKG though, with 7 daily and with VA exiting MEL-HKG, MEL will be down to 4 daily.

The underperforming line used likely applies to both HKG routes at this point in time though, so we will see how that goes. SYD has a more central location to the East Coast and a stronger base to draw from so it likely the other considerations that came into play for VA, but it may have been a close call.

VA jumping onto the hyper competitive MEL-DPS is a bold move though, rejoining the route in a situation where there are now 2 additional airlines on the it since their last attempt flying the sector (Malindo and Qantas), making it 5 airlines when VA commences (Garuda and Jetstar being the other 2).

VA has a lot of hard work ahead of it and needs to make hard choices. There will likely be more to come once it has analysed The effectiveness of these changes and continues to review performance.
Last edited by IndianicWorld on Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:56 am

NZ516 wrote:
Tiger should just be absorbed into VA and the 320s sold off.


Virgin needs to figure out what it wants to be first before that kind of move can occur.

TT has been a struggle for VA though, as they just can’t seem to figure out how to use it effectively.
 
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vhqpa
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:05 pm

Re. The latest VA/TT route developments.

BNE-ADL - Not sure about this one. There doesn't seem to be much room for LCCs. With JQ despite flying the route from very close to it's inception has never been increased beyond a daily frequency (currently 5 weekly).

BNE-DRW. This is a market where you have to be quite flexible with capacity. Going into the wet season QF group shred a daily mainline frequency and 3 weekly JQ frequencies. I'm wondering whether VA group will bring back seasonal capacity for the dry season, otherwise it's a big win to QF who fly double daily mainline and daily JQ during the dry season.

SYD-PPP. On paper PPP seems like a destination that should do well for TT, but instead are pulling out of the region completely. I'm not sure if it's that JQ is more established, or PPP being less accessible than HTI for the southern states. Interestingly on the BNE-PPP route pulling TT out didn't seem to harm the route with VA running at 10 weekly to PPP.

This leads me thinking about the future of the Tigerair brand. There doesn't seem to be much of coherent strategy for the brand. They can't seem to establish themselves outside of the thicker truck routes. Despite JB's vision of VA going head to head with QF. VA still seem to be stuck somewhere between JQ and QF. They were supposed to transition from A320 to B737 by now, but three years later the A320 fleet still outnumbers the B737 fleet by almost 3 to 1.

With HKG. With HNA's bankruptcy and the protests I'm wondering VA should have just pulled out completely and used the 332 previously assigned to SYD-HKG, to launch a second Japan route from MEL. Even if they use the Haneda slot for MEL, and push BNE to Narita. With the AU-JP market potentially moving towards JVs between VA/NH and QF/JL(+JQ?), they would be at a large disadvantage to not offer MEL-TYO nonstop, while QF/JL fly twice daily.
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:13 pm

travelhound wrote:
getluv wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
If those are the only cuts then not as bad as I thought... or should I stay tuned for more?


If they’d cut anymore they’d have to start selling aircraft to make up for it.


I think a part of the cuts includes reducing their fleet size by two A320's and three F100's.

On a per seat basis that will be close to a 3.5% reduction in domestic capacity.

With no new 737MAX's coming until 2022, there could be more reductions in capacity as the A320's leave the carrier.


The first 737MAX is due in July 2021 not 2022. As for the VARA fleet it is not really heavily utilised, its not uncommon to see both F100 or A320 on the ground at PER for several hours at a time. One of the main reasons for retiring 3 of them is there is a global shortage of parts for the F100 and those 3 will be used for parts to keep the rest of the fleet operational.
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:14 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Tiger should just be absorbed into VA and the 320s sold off.


How do they sell these A320's off when they are leased?
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:17 pm

eta unknown wrote:

Have the redundancies started at BNE's Virgin Village?


Yes they started shortly after they were announced.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Ethiopian has started codesharing on SA’s PER-JNB

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -oct-2019/
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Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:43 pm

Tt is an extremely pointless airline at the moment. They either need to grow it up and truly rival JQ or shut it down. At the moment, an airline with just 16 aircrafts cannot truly offer itself as a viable competitor. If TT expanded a bit including some int flights I think we would see it gain a lot in the long run. At the moment it is just idle and sinking up cash
 
NZ516
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:27 pm

qf789 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Tiger should just be absorbed into VA and the 320s sold off.


How do they sell these A320's off when they are leased?


Ok so they could negotiate with their lessor on early return of the 320s.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:52 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
I do wonder if part of the reason for the poor execution of partnerships is the limitations of their IT infrastructure. The cheap, stripped down version of Sabre they use has really limited functionality. In many ways it is barely any better than Navitaire. They tripped over a pound to pick up a penny with that decision IMHO.


I could be way off here, but at the time they probably never envisaged being anything more than a point to point carrier - the Borghetti vision of QF lite was yet to come wasn't it? So at the time it made sense for what they were doing, but agreed, gave no optionality.
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:01 am

qf789 wrote:
Ethiopian has started codesharing on SA’s PER-JNB

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -oct-2019/


Was expecting Ethiopia to launch an Aussie route on their own. Hopefully the new SAA A350s will make it to Perth
 
F100Flyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:26 am

Captdasbomb wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Ethiopian has started codesharing on SA’s PER-JNB

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -oct-2019/


Was expecting Ethiopia to launch an Aussie route on their own. Hopefully the new SAA A350s will make it to Perth


I’ve read on these forums (the accuracy of the claims I’m not sure) that their Perth route is one of the best international routes they have. If that’s the case, I’d expect them to deploy the A350 on other routes to stem losses.
 
kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:29 am

Captdasbomb wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Ethiopian has started codesharing on SA’s PER-JNB

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -oct-2019/


Was expecting Ethiopia to launch an Aussie route on their own. Hopefully the new SAA A350s will make it to Perth


ET has their eyes on MEL
A world built upon connectivity.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:47 am

vhqpa wrote:
Re. The latest VA/TT route developments.

BNE-ADL - Not sure about this one. There doesn't seem to be much room for LCCs. With JQ despite flying the route from very close to it's inception has never been increased beyond a daily frequency (currently 5 weekly).

BNE-DRW. This is a market where you have to be quite flexible with capacity. Going into the wet season QF group shred a daily mainline frequency and 3 weekly JQ frequencies. I'm wondering whether VA group will bring back seasonal capacity for the dry season, otherwise it's a big win to QF who fly double daily mainline and daily JQ during the dry season.

SYD-PPP. On paper PPP seems like a destination that should do well for TT, but instead are pulling out of the region completely. I'm not sure if it's that JQ is more established, or PPP being less accessible than HTI for the southern states. Interestingly on the BNE-PPP route pulling TT out didn't seem to harm the route with VA running at 10 weekly to PPP.

This leads me thinking about the future of the Tigerair brand. There doesn't seem to be much of coherent strategy for the brand. They can't seem to establish themselves outside of the thicker truck routes. Despite JB's vision of VA going head to head with QF. VA still seem to be stuck somewhere between JQ and QF. They were supposed to transition from A320 to B737 by now, but three years later the A320 fleet still outnumbers the B737 fleet by almost 3 to 1.

With HKG. With HNA's bankruptcy and the protests I'm wondering VA should have just pulled out completely and used the 332 previously assigned to SYD-HKG, to launch a second Japan route from MEL. Even if they use the Haneda slot for MEL, and push BNE to Narita. With the AU-JP market potentially moving towards JVs between VA/NH and QF/JL(+JQ?), they would be at a large disadvantage to not offer MEL-TYO nonstop, while QF/JL fly twice daily.


MEL - TYO has gone from nothing not that long ago to QF and JL. Not sure VA jumping in to that market would be wise. There's a finite amount of people to fly.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:59 am

qf2220 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
I do wonder if part of the reason for the poor execution of partnerships is the limitations of their IT infrastructure. The cheap, stripped down version of Sabre they use has really limited functionality. In many ways it is barely any better than Navitaire. They tripped over a pound to pick up a penny with that decision IMHO.


I could be way off here, but at the time they probably never envisaged being anything more than a point to point carrier - the Borghetti vision of QF lite was yet to come wasn't it? So at the time it made sense for what they were doing, but agreed, gave no optionality.


I might be wrong, but I thought that Sabre was initially only used by V Australia and then adopted company-wide with the rebrand to Virgin Australia. While V Australia was also initially conceived as a largely point-to-point carrier before the Delta JBA, by 2011 the strategic direction of VA as a more complex carrier was becoming clear. I think they should have upgraded to a more functional model at that point.
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lessredtape
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:05 am

qf2220 wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
Re ABX I think it's a turboprop route. I don't know the CASK difference between an ATR72/Q400 and the small jets but I assume they're lower.


BNE/ABX a turboprop route ?

It’s approx. 100 miles further than BNE/CBR & approx. 20% less than BNE/MEL & who's talking QF or VA or Rex ?

Think many of Alliances F70s/F100s are based at BNE.

Someone even suggested that ADL/ABX might work in winter twice a week or

BNE/ABX/ADL/ABX/BNE


My views have nothing to do with the operational specifics of the route but are about the cost base. AFAIU turboprops are lower cost than small jets (like the F70) and so would be less risky from a profitability perspective, assuming pax book onto the flight. ABX is a regional area and whilst not a poor place is not a wealthy place like the large cities are, so is perhaps more price sensitive. Good point on Alliances fleet, but again, i think theyre going to be too costly to be able to charge a sustainable profitable fare.
was under the impression, that turboprops were price competitive up to around 90 minutes flying. Be an interesting comparison between a Dash 8-400 (74 or 76 seats) & an F70 (80 seats).

Very very roughly ........ wouldn't a Dash 8-400 do BNE/ABX in about 2 hours 15 mins & an F70 in about 1 hour 45 mins ?
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:44 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
I do wonder if part of the reason for the poor execution of partnerships is the limitations of their IT infrastructure. The cheap, stripped down version of Sabre they use has really limited functionality. In many ways it is barely any better than Navitaire. They tripped over a pound to pick up a penny with that decision IMHO.


I could be way off here, but at the time they probably never envisaged being anything more than a point to point carrier - the Borghetti vision of QF lite was yet to come wasn't it? So at the time it made sense for what they were doing, but agreed, gave no optionality.


I might be wrong, but I thought that Sabre was initially only used by V Australia and then adopted company-wide with the rebrand to Virgin Australia. While V Australia was also initially conceived as a largely point-to-point carrier before the Delta JBA, by 2011 the strategic direction of VA as a more complex carrier was becoming clear. I think they should have upgraded to a more functional model at that point.


Nope, V-Australia used Altea by Amadeus, and DJ used Navtaite. When VA was rebranded and integration of Pacific blue, V-Australia and Virgin blue then they moved to sabre.

Saber is more a reservation system, you can use as a DCS, Altea is far superior, but is slower to implement carrier specific changes as all airlines are required to vote on changes. Altea was also developed as a partnership between QF/BA and Amadeus, So rumour was QF vetoed Amadeus bidding for the VA contract. Not sure how true that was. I do believe VA also use a cheaper lite version of sabre thus their slower uptake of self service checkin.
 
aviationaware
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:22 am

smi0006 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-on-verge-of-multibillion-dollar-decision-to-replace-domestic-fleet-20191029-p535fo.html

Simple Question: Airbus or Boeing?


Perhaps a combo of both?


Frankly, ordering the Max at this point is close to breach of fiduciary duty when talking about a public company. That plane is history and its public perception will never recover from Boeing's gross incompetence in handling this stuff.

The Qantas management so far appears to be worth their money (as evidenced by the fact that they refuse to take Charlotte built 787s) so I'd say the only way to go is A320, perhaps with some A220 mixed in for the regionals.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:29 am

Morrofinch wrote:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-on-verge-of-multibillion-dollar-decision-to-replace-domestic-fleet-20191029-p535fo.html

Simple Question: Airbus or Boeing?


Neither. QF 738's have plenty of flying left in them so there is no need for them to make a narrowbody fleet choice next year. Especially so when they have JQ A321NEO's coming in and would want to see how JQ plays around with them and operates them. They'd also need Boeing to sort out the MAX and their NMA before making a decision.
 
81819
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:30 am

QF were using their 737-400's up to 22 years of age.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:33 am

aviationaware wrote:
Frankly, ordering the Max at this point is close to breach of fiduciary duty when talking about a public company. That plane is history and its public perception will never recover from Boeing's gross incompetence in handling this stuff.


Frankly if Boeing fixes the problem and gives QF a great deal on the MAX it would be a breach of fiduciary duty not to order them and waste shareholders money on something more expensive.

Having said that I don't think QF needs to make a narrowbody decision at all. There is plenty of life left in their 738 fleet and they can afford to wait.
 
aviationaware
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:38 am

Sydscott wrote:
Having said that I don't think QF needs to make a narrowbody decision at all. There is plenty of life left in their 738 fleet and they can afford to wait.


You seem to know more than Alan Joyce then.
 
a19901213
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:06 am

I feel that AJ only spoke out at this point to rectify their public image damaged by 737 issues and continuing criticism on their aging fleet.

I might be wrong but I recall AJ always spoke out how they won’t make any NB fleet decision for another few years before.
 
Sparker
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:29 am

QF have been flagging that they'd begin looking at replacements for their narrowbody and regional fleets for a year or two now, at AGMs and in Annual Reports and the like. Possibly Joyce has pushed it in the media in the last couple of weeks as a PR strategy, but the replacement need has been on the public record for a while.

Joyce's statement that QF's timing on the decision will be influenced, in significant part, by the need to secure delivery slots rings true - the backlog for new narrowbodies is pretty impressive, and the A220 seems to be picking up steam.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:36 am

aviationaware wrote:
Frankly, ordering the Max at this point is close to breach of fiduciary duty when talking about a public company. That plane is history and its public perception will never recover from Boeing's gross incompetence in handling this stuff.

So I'd say the only way to go is A320, perhaps with some A220 mixed in for the regionals.


Tend to agree. Particular if the suggestions that the MOM is dead, and Boeing will instead develop a NSA for the 797 moniker. You'd wait for a NSA rather than investing in Max at present. A shame for QF as they do need a 767 replacement on the domestic triangle.

Other option for the regionals might be second hand 319s. Reportedly 10-12yo aircraft are being scrapped as airlines upgauge to 320/321, so might be an option like the 717s in the past. A lot cheaper than 220s.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:17 am

smi0006 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

I could be way off here, but at the time they probably never envisaged being anything more than a point to point carrier - the Borghetti vision of QF lite was yet to come wasn't it? So at the time it made sense for what they were doing, but agreed, gave no optionality.


I might be wrong, but I thought that Sabre was initially only used by V Australia and then adopted company-wide with the rebrand to Virgin Australia. While V Australia was also initially conceived as a largely point-to-point carrier before the Delta JBA, by 2011 the strategic direction of VA as a more complex carrier was becoming clear. I think they should have upgraded to a more functional model at that point.


Nope, V-Australia used Altea by Amadeus, and DJ used Navtaite. When VA was rebranded and integration of Pacific blue, V-Australia and Virgin blue then they moved to sabre.

Saber is more a reservation system, you can use as a DCS, Altea is far superior, but is slower to implement carrier specific changes as all airlines are required to vote on changes. Altea was also developed as a partnership between QF/BA and Amadeus, So rumour was QF vetoed Amadeus bidding for the VA contract. Not sure how true that was. I do believe VA also use a cheaper lite version of sabre thus their slower uptake of self service checkin.



Ok time for times. May 2011 the Virgin Australia brand arose (with Pacific Blue and V-Australia dropped and replaced with VA at the same time). a few months before that Borghetti had taken on the hot seat. Sabre was 'fully' implemented in Jan 2013. So my earlier comment was wrong , smi006 has the details right. Sabre came after the rebrand and I now agree with RG, there cheapened out on the deal, though it may not have had much choice.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:30 am

Qantas delays A388 service on SYD-HKG for NW19/20 by a week now starting on 18 Dec 19

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 12512?s=20
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:50 am

smi0006 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

I could be way off here, but at the time they probably never envisaged being anything more than a point to point carrier - the Borghetti vision of QF lite was yet to come wasn't it? So at the time it made sense for what they were doing, but agreed, gave no optionality.


I might be wrong, but I thought that Sabre was initially only used by V Australia and then adopted company-wide with the rebrand to Virgin Australia. While V Australia was also initially conceived as a largely point-to-point carrier before the Delta JBA, by 2011 the strategic direction of VA as a more complex carrier was becoming clear. I think they should have upgraded to a more functional model at that point.


Nope, V-Australia used Altea by Amadeus, and DJ used Navtaite. When VA was rebranded and integration of Pacific blue, V-Australia and Virgin blue then they moved to sabre.

Saber is more a reservation system, you can use as a DCS, Altea is far superior, but is slower to implement carrier specific changes as all airlines are required to vote on changes. Altea was also developed as a partnership between QF/BA and Amadeus, So rumour was QF vetoed Amadeus bidding for the VA contract. Not sure how true that was. I do believe VA also use a cheaper lite version of sabre thus their slower uptake of self service checkin.


Thanks for that. I didn't realise VOZ was on Altea. I doubt it's true that Qantas vetoed VA using the platform, but Altea is the gold standard and comes with a hefty price tag. There are other, perfectly adequate, Amadeus platforms they could have used.

There is nothing inherently wrong with Sabre. A lot of airlines use it, most notably of course American Airlines as they developed it in-house before spinning it off. The issue is more with the platform that VA adopted.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:47 pm

ZNJ has been delivered, going to LAX the long way

https://twitter.com/aeroimageschris/sta ... 40000?s=21
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waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:59 pm

Citilink a320neo rolled into Perth this morning before 5am for the new PER-DPS service

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