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aerohottie
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:04 am

19hrs 19 min flight time for QF7879 LHR/SYD.
Doesn't seem to bad...

Interested to read some reviews of the pax onboard
What?
 
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a36001
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:07 am

Amazing flight! congratulations to Qantas Boeing and all the people who put all this together!
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:43 am

Qantas16 wrote:
kriskim wrote:
EK axes BNE-SIN-DXB from 30 March next year, the flights will not be replaced. The airline cites that the route suffered heavy losses as the reason.

EK will continue to offer MEL-SIN-DXB service daily.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/c ... ompetition


Strong rumours that SQ will launch 5x daily BNE soon... we will see.


No chance of a QF step up then? Even to say 10/11 pw?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:52 am

qf2220 wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
kriskim wrote:
EK axes BNE-SIN-DXB from 30 March next year, the flights will not be replaced. The airline cites that the route suffered heavy losses as the reason.

EK will continue to offer MEL-SIN-DXB service daily.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/c ... ompetition


Strong rumours that SQ will launch 5x daily BNE soon... we will see.


No chance of a QF step up then? Even to say 10/11 pw?


In Emirates' submission to the Singapore competition commission seeking approval to terminate the route they said that Qantas did not have spare capacity to increase frequency. Now, how true that actually is we will never know (for example Qantas were probably already seriously considering terminating SYD-PEK) but it does show that Qantas don't seem particularly interested in adding capacity.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:04 am

Qantas kicks off centenary celebrations

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ght-lands/
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:35 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:

Strong rumours that SQ will launch 5x daily BNE soon... we will see.


No chance of a QF step up then? Even to say 10/11 pw?


In Emirates' submission to the Singapore competition commission seeking approval to terminate the route they said that Qantas did not have spare capacity to increase frequency. Now, how true that actually is we will never know (for example Qantas were probably already seriously considering terminating SYD-PEK) but it does show that Qantas don't seem particularly interested in adding capacity.


Interesting. I wonder how much EK is allowed to know of QF's fleet plans outside of the JBA when making these statements?
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:39 am

QF should have held onto those 2 A332s they let go a few years ago...
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:42 am

The qantas.com/100 mini-site advertised on the plane is also now active.
Forwards to https://www.qantas.com/us/en/100-years- ... ralia.html
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:09 am

Qantas16 wrote:
kriskim wrote:
EK axes BNE-SIN-DXB from 30 March next year, the flights will not be replaced. The airline cites that the route suffered heavy losses as the reason.

EK will continue to offer MEL-SIN-DXB service daily.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/c ... ompetition


Strong rumours that SQ will launch 5x daily BNE soon... we will see.


I think that may be unlikely IMO. If anything, my guess is that two of the three existing A359 Regional configuration flights will see a gauge swap to the 78J instead for capacity increases.

SQ245/246 will remain the single daily three-class long-haul configuration A359 flight for the foreseeable future.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:28 am

vhebb wrote:
QF should have held onto those 2 A332s they let go a few years ago...


They were leased weren’t they? Always thought it was an odd decision. Certainly a few routes they could have been used on. Be interesting if we see any more changes after PEK and HND announcement, perhaps some shuffling around of HKG capacity?

Shame CX and QF don’t have a better relationship I’m sure CX wouldn’t mind leasing some capacity

I wonder with the Melbourne airport runway decision would QF ever move some of JQs 321s to mainline to boost some domestic capacity on the SYD-MEL route? 12J 195Y?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:39 am

Shame CX and QF don’t have a better relationship I’m sure CX wouldn’t mind leasing some capacity

They could lease from any number of sources but it is difficult inserting a differently configured plane into the fleet.

I wonder with the Melbourne airport runway decision would QF ever move some of JQs 321s to mainline to boost some domestic capacity on the SYD-MEL route? 12J 195Y?

They could or they could order 737 MAX 10 like VA has done but there remains a big gap between the narrowbodies and the A332. Your 207 seat count seems a bit high. DL and AA get around 196 on their A321s
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:56 am

Speaking of the 332s, when will -EBN be getting international reconfig?
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:21 am

smi0006 wrote:
vhebb wrote:
Shame CX and QF don’t have a better relationship I’m sure CX wouldn’t mind leasing some capacity


Last I remember Qantas and Cathay Pacific wanted to codeshare on certain flights on the Hong Kong route were blocked by the International Air Services Commission. Plus VA was jumping up and down with a few valid points.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:23 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
Speaking of the 332s, when will -EBN be getting international reconfig?
Probably getting to late for it now this year.
Think EBA and EBK are also the only ones left without the Internet antenna as well, along with 3 or 4 737s, also probably delayed with the pickle fork groundings
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:41 am

tullamarine wrote:
Shame CX and QF don’t have a better relationship I’m sure CX wouldn’t mind leasing some capacity

They could lease from any number of sources but it is difficult inserting a differently configured plane into the fleet.

I wonder with the Melbourne airport runway decision would QF ever move some of JQs 321s to mainline to boost some domestic capacity on the SYD-MEL route? 12J 195Y?

They could or they could order 737 MAX 10 like VA has done but there remains a big gap between the narrowbodies and the A332. Your 207 seat count seems a bit high. DL and AA get around 196 on their A321s


Qantas would probably have at least one row more than DL/AA as they have less pitch in Domestic Business and don't have an extra legroom section within Economy. Moreover the US carriers would want to keep the seat count under 200 so they only require 4 flight attendants, whereas in Australia I'm pretty sure they would require 5 regardless.
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eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:26 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Shame CX and QF don’t have a better relationship I’m sure CX wouldn’t mind leasing some capacity

They could lease from any number of sources but it is difficult inserting a differently configured plane into the fleet.

I wonder with the Melbourne airport runway decision would QF ever move some of JQs 321s to mainline to boost some domestic capacity on the SYD-MEL route? 12J 195Y?

They could or they could order 737 MAX 10 like VA has done but there remains a big gap between the narrowbodies and the A332. Your 207 seat count seems a bit high. DL and AA get around 196 on their A321s


Qantas would probably have at least one row more than DL/AA as they have less pitch in Domestic Business and don't have an extra legroom section within Economy. Moreover the US carriers would want to keep the seat count under 200 so they only require 4 flight attendants, whereas in Australia I'm pretty sure they would require 5 regardless.

The last section I had with QF they had only 4 F/As on 738 so they might well have 1:50 ratio rule down here - although this is a wild guess. There's also contract with the F/A group which might prevent this though.

Michael
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:15 am

eamondzhang wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
They could lease from any number of sources but it is difficult inserting a differently configured plane into the fleet.


They could or they could order 737 MAX 10 like VA has done but there remains a big gap between the narrowbodies and the A332. Your 207 seat count seems a bit high. DL and AA get around 196 on their A321s


Qantas would probably have at least one row more than DL/AA as they have less pitch in Domestic Business and don't have an extra legroom section within Economy. Moreover the US carriers would want to keep the seat count under 200 so they only require 4 flight attendants, whereas in Australia I'm pretty sure they would require 5 regardless.

The last section I had with QF they had only 4 F/As on 738 so they might well have 1:50 ratio rule down here - although this is a wild guess. There's also contract with the F/A group which might prevent this though.

Michael


CASA can grant ememptions from the 1:37 ratio, and all four major carriers have exemptions to operate the 737/A320 with four crew. Qantas' cabin crew enterprise agreement means they still have to staff certain flights with five crew, whereas VA/JQ/TT are always four crew

The A321 is a bit more complex as it has more exits, although the NEO does loose L2/R2. With a 737/A320 four crew means one per door (plus a minimum of two pax per over-wing exit).

How many crew does JQ staff their A321s with? You can be pretty certain that is the minimum CASA will permit.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:24 am

Qantas16 wrote:
Strong rumours that SQ will launch 5x daily BNE soon... we will see.


I'd love to hear the source of that rumour- SQ has issues with the 18:00 flight as the SIN connection bank is limited. When would a 5th flight arrive/depart? And to be honest, we're talking BNE, not SYD or MEL- there isn't the population or corporate base to support such expansion. When you start throwing all this capacity around you get to a point where you just depress your own yields.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:45 am

EK reports they are dropping BNE-SIN due to significant losses on the route. Actions like this don’t normally indicate the capacity needs to be replaced.
NSW based avgeek
 
Bluebird191
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:15 pm

SeaEagle8 wrote:
EK reports they are dropping BNE-SIN due to significant losses on the route. Actions like this don’t normally indicate the capacity needs to be replaced.


The 77W may well have been overkill on the route, particularly with a distinct lack of connections in Singapore. Coupled with a potential lack of cargo revenue, departure time ex BNE, it doesn’t bode well for EK, but with SQ’s connecting options, brand image and awareness in Australia, they may just be able to give a hypothetical 5th daily a much better run for it’s money than what EK can, and at a likely much lower cost base as well (with the A359R and 78X being cheaper per seat per km than a 77W?)
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:30 pm

SeaEagle8 wrote:
EK reports they are dropping BNE-SIN due to significant losses on the route. Actions like this don’t normally indicate the capacity needs to be replaced.


I agree. Most of their comments seem to indicate that the route is suffering from significant levels of overcapacity at this stage. Not a recipe to replace capacity.

I also agree that it is not as strong of a market compared to SYD/MEL-SIN, but SQ must see it as an important market To fly it 4 x daily. I don’t see them adding a 5th daily though year round just yet, but may look at seasonal increases.
 
jman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:37 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

Qantas would probably have at least one row more than DL/AA as they have less pitch in Domestic Business and don't have an extra legroom section within Economy. Moreover the US carriers would want to keep the seat count under 200 so they only require 4 flight attendants, whereas in Australia I'm pretty sure they would require 5 regardless.

The last section I had with QF they had only 4 F/As on 738 so they might well have 1:50 ratio rule down here - although this is a wild guess. There's also contract with the F/A group which might prevent this though.

Michael


CASA can grant ememptions from the 1:37 ratio, and all four major carriers have exemptions to operate the 737/A320 with four crew. Qantas' cabin crew enterprise agreement means they still have to staff certain flights with five crew, whereas VA/JQ/TT are always four crew

The A321 is a bit more complex as it has more exits, although the NEO does loose L2/R2. With a 737/A320 four crew means one per door (plus a minimum of two pax per over-wing exit).

How many crew does JQ staff their A321s with? You can be pretty certain that is the minimum CASA will permit.


JQ uses 5 crew for their A321s, both the CEO and NEO version to come
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:01 pm

jman wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
The last section I had with QF they had only 4 F/As on 738 so they might well have 1:50 ratio rule down here - although this is a wild guess. There's also contract with the F/A group which might prevent this though.

Michael


CASA can grant ememptions from the 1:37 ratio, and all four major carriers have exemptions to operate the 737/A320 with four crew. Qantas' cabin crew enterprise agreement means they still have to staff certain flights with five crew, whereas VA/JQ/TT are always four crew

The A321 is a bit more complex as it has more exits, although the NEO does loose L2/R2. With a 737/A320 four crew means one per door (plus a minimum of two pax per over-wing exit).

How many crew does JQ staff their A321s with? You can be pretty certain that is the minimum CASA will permit.


JQ uses 5 crew for their A321s, both the CEO and NEO version to come


Thanks, that's what I thought.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
oskarclare
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:03 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
EK reports they are dropping BNE-SIN due to significant losses on the route. Actions like this don’t normally indicate the capacity needs to be replaced.


I agree. Most of their comments seem to indicate that the route is suffering from significant levels of overcapacity at this stage. Not a recipe to replace capacity.

I also agree that it is not as strong of a market compared to SYD/MEL-SIN, but SQ must see it as an important market To fly it 4 x daily. I don’t see them adding a 5th daily though year round just yet, but may look at seasonal increases.


SIN-BNE has grown significantly in the past year. As of August 2019, it had grown 9.8% from the previous year which equates to an additional 83000 passengers. I agree that an additional seasonal 3-4x weekly service could probably work, with it expanding over the years that follow.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:22 pm

oskarclare wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
EK reports they are dropping BNE-SIN due to significant losses on the route. Actions like this don’t normally indicate the capacity needs to be replaced.


I agree. Most of their comments seem to indicate that the route is suffering from significant levels of overcapacity at this stage. Not a recipe to replace capacity.

I also agree that it is not as strong of a market compared to SYD/MEL-SIN, but SQ must see it as an important market To fly it 4 x daily. I don’t see them adding a 5th daily though year round just yet, but may look at seasonal increases.


SIN-BNE has grown significantly in the past year. As of August 2019, it had grown 9.8% from the previous year which equates to an additional 83000 passengers. I agree that an additional seasonal 3-4x weekly service could probably work, with it expanding over the years that follow.


The challenge is ensuring yields are good enough to make a route viable. SQ have gone hard at strengthening their position on the route, but EK’s move seems to show how that was changed the operating environment.

Many routes can fill seats at lower price points, but it generally won’t pay the bills. A seasonal increase would be a smarter way of maximising opportunities to handle volume with decreased risk of yield pressures, but that’s up to SA to access whether they feel it is justified.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:06 am

The numbers for Thai AAX above on BNE-DMK don't point to a strong market. It sounds as though there is significant overcapacity in the Brisbane-SE Asia market so I doubt that SQ are going to rush to back fill the loss of EK.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:51 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
The numbers for Thai AAX above on BNE-DMK don't point to a strong market. It sounds as though there is significant overcapacity in the Brisbane-SE Asia market so I doubt that SQ are going to rush to back fill the loss of EK.


It is interesting, I think it’s pretty easy for a fifth freedom carrier EK in this case to be squeezed out of a market, They are the ones that have to lower fares to an unsustainable level to fill seats, while SQ being the home carrier on one end with a huge amount of connections are able to dominate not only the BNE-SIN market but they are by far the most dominant carrier to SE Asia ex BNE, I would be quite confident they won’t dilute their own yields and certainly a fifth daily atleast seasonally a few days a week is possible.

QF were rumoured a while back to be looking at a second daily BNE-SIN as well, you would have thought they would replace EK which seems to not be the case, a flight with shorter LHR connections.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:58 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
The numbers for Thai AAX above on BNE-DMK don't point to a strong market. It sounds as though there is significant overcapacity in the Brisbane-SE Asia market so I doubt that SQ are going to rush to back fill the loss of EK.


It is interesting, I think it’s pretty easy for a fifth freedom carrier EK in this case to be squeezed out of a market, They are the ones that have to lower fares to an unsustainable level to fill seats, while SQ being the home carrier on one end with a huge amount of connections are able to dominate not only the BNE-SIN market but they are by far the most dominant carrier to SE Asia ex BNE, I would be quite confident they won’t dilute their own yields and certainly a fifth daily atleast seasonally a few days a week is possible.

QF were rumoured a while back to be looking at a second daily BNE-SIN as well, you would have thought they would replace EK which seems to not be the case, a flight with shorter LHR connections.


Yeah I don’t see QF looking at that option given EK’s comments.

They are likely happy enough to maintain a daily presence to appeal to demand it sees as viable to cater to and let SQ do it’s thing also. With double daily flights from both SYD and MEL to SIN, QF have a very solid east coast network to work from.

As for BKK from BNE, the frequencies and LF% for both carriers on the route don’t exactly point to the strongest market. Thing take time to stabilise when additional capacity is added to the region, so we will see what moves transpire after some time.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:03 am

One has to wonder whether some of the SQ265/266 pairing frequencies could be "Scootified" to TR and retimed an hour earlier to/from BNE to connect to the early morning redeyes to TPE/NRT, ATH, TXL, etc.

Perhaps TR could operate a split BNE/OOL schedule with x3 ex-OOL (daytime ex-OOL) and the 4x ex-BNE (early evening ex-BNE using some of the existing SQ265/266 frequencies).
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:10 am

SCFlyer wrote:
One has to wonder whether some of the SQ265/266 pairing frequencies could be "Scootified" to TR and retimed an hour earlier to/from BNE to connect to the early morning redeyes to TPE/NRT, ATH, TXL, etc.

Perhaps TR could operate a split BNE/OOL schedule with x3 ex-OOL (daytime ex-OOL) and the 4x ex-BNE (early evening ex-BNE using some of the existing SQ265/266 frequencies).


Doesn’t make sense from a cost perspective as it just splits the flights but duplicates the operational requirements across 2 airports.

If it saw the need to move TR to BNE, one would have expected that to happen long ago. They must be happy with what they have built up at OOL.
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:24 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
CASA can grant ememptions from the 1:37 ratio, and all four major carriers have exemptions to operate the 737/A320 with four crew. Qantas' cabin crew enterprise agreement means they still have to staff certain flights with five crew, whereas VA/JQ/TT are always four crew

The A321 is a bit more complex as it has more exits, although the NEO does loose L2/R2. With a 737/A320 four crew means one per door (plus a minimum of two pax per over-wing exit).

How many crew does JQ staff their A321s with? You can be pretty certain that is the minimum CASA will permit.


Worst case you just slap an ZK-*** rego on the A321NEO with an 200 seats if CASA wouldn't allow 1to50 to operate an 321NEO.

NZ operates operates that 214 seater A321NEO's with 5 crew, with 2x at 1L, 1x at 3R, and 1x at L
 
Gangurru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:28 am

Regarding EK's SIN-BNE withdrawal, I'm sure the timings did not help. The last time I flew it, it departed at 02:30.

Nice memories though! I fell asleep in EK's BNE lounge. Upon waking I was happy to find that a lounge cleaner had got a blanket and gently laid it over me. She was a cleaner who really cared about her job.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:52 am

oskarclare wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
EK reports they are dropping BNE-SIN due to significant losses on the route. Actions like this don’t normally indicate the capacity needs to be replaced.


I agree. Most of their comments seem to indicate that the route is suffering from significant levels of overcapacity at this stage. Not a recipe to replace capacity.

I also agree that it is not as strong of a market compared to SYD/MEL-SIN, but SQ must see it as an important market To fly it 4 x daily. I don’t see them adding a 5th daily though year round just yet, but may look at seasonal increases.


SIN-BNE has grown significantly in the past year. As of August 2019, it had grown 9.8% from the previous year which equates to an additional 83000 passengers. I agree that an additional seasonal 3-4x weekly service could probably work, with it expanding over the years that follow.


An increase of 83,000 seems impressive until you look at what that is based on. If the market increased by 120,000 which is the estimate of the additional seats added then it’s less than 70%. So the issue remains and EK said it quite clearly that this particular market was over capacity.
Adding a 5th daily flight on an SQ A350 would dump almost 220,000 seats on this route.
NSW based avgeek
 
81819
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:11 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
The numbers for Thai AAX above on BNE-DMK don't point to a strong market. It sounds as though there is significant overcapacity in the Brisbane-SE Asia market so I doubt that SQ are going to rush to back fill the loss of EK.


It is interesting, I think it’s pretty easy for a fifth freedom carrier EK in this case to be squeezed out of a market, They are the ones that have to lower fares to an unsustainable level to fill seats, while SQ being the home carrier on one end with a huge amount of connections are able to dominate not only the BNE-SIN market but they are by far the most dominant carrier to SE Asia ex BNE, I would be quite confident they won’t dilute their own yields and certainly a fifth daily atleast seasonally a few days a week is possible.

QF were rumoured a while back to be looking at a second daily BNE-SIN as well, you would have thought they would replace EK which seems to not be the case, a flight with shorter LHR connections.


Yeah I don’t see QF looking at that option given EK’s comments.

They are likely happy enough to maintain a daily presence to appeal to demand it sees as viable to cater to and let SQ do it’s thing also. With double daily flights from both SYD and MEL to SIN, QF have a very solid east coast network to work from.

As for BKK from BNE, the frequencies and LF% for both carriers on the route don’t exactly point to the strongest market. Thing take time to stabilise when additional capacity is added to the region, so we will see what moves transpire after some time.


With the JQ 788's coming free when the A331LR's arrive, it might be a good idea to use some of this capacity on BNE-SIN.

With SQ being in such a dominant position the JQ product my be needed as a disrupter for the QANTAS Group to gain market share.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:23 am

travelhound wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

It is interesting, I think it’s pretty easy for a fifth freedom carrier EK in this case to be squeezed out of a market, They are the ones that have to lower fares to an unsustainable level to fill seats, while SQ being the home carrier on one end with a huge amount of connections are able to dominate not only the BNE-SIN market but they are by far the most dominant carrier to SE Asia ex BNE, I would be quite confident they won’t dilute their own yields and certainly a fifth daily atleast seasonally a few days a week is possible.

QF were rumoured a while back to be looking at a second daily BNE-SIN as well, you would have thought they would replace EK which seems to not be the case, a flight with shorter LHR connections.


Yeah I don’t see QF looking at that option given EK’s comments.

They are likely happy enough to maintain a daily presence to appeal to demand it sees as viable to cater to and let SQ do it’s thing also. With double daily flights from both SYD and MEL to SIN, QF have a very solid east coast network to work from.

As for BKK from BNE, the frequencies and LF% for both carriers on the route don’t exactly point to the strongest market. Thing take time to stabilise when additional capacity is added to the region, so we will see what moves transpire after some time.


With the JQ 788's coming free when the A331LR's arrive, it might be a good idea to use some of this capacity on BNE-SIN.

With SQ being in such a dominant position the JQ product my be needed as a disrupter for the QANTAS Group to gain market share.


You could run BNE-SIN with an A321LR rather than a 788. JQ failed with MEL-SIN though, I don't think they fly it anymore? So its not really about market share is it but more yield.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:37 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
oskarclare wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:

I agree. Most of their comments seem to indicate that the route is suffering from significant levels of overcapacity at this stage. Not a recipe to replace capacity.

I also agree that it is not as strong of a market compared to SYD/MEL-SIN, but SQ must see it as an important market To fly it 4 x daily. I don’t see them adding a 5th daily though year round just yet, but may look at seasonal increases.


SIN-BNE has grown significantly in the past year. As of August 2019, it had grown 9.8% from the previous year which equates to an additional 83000 passengers. I agree that an additional seasonal 3-4x weekly service could probably work, with it expanding over the years that follow.


An increase of 83,000 seems impressive until you look at what that is based on. If the market increased by 120,000 which is the estimate of the additional seats added then it’s less than 70%. So the issue remains and EK said it quite clearly that this particular market was over capacity.
Adding a 5th daily flight on an SQ A350 would dump almost 220,000 seats on this route.


https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... bai-flight

Sure EK are saying that there is "over capacity" on the route but like I said earlier they are the fifth freedom operator getting the lower yielding traffic and the cost for them to operate this tag is makes it unsustainable for them, SQ have done to EK what EK have done to many airlines around the world and increased capacity from their home market where they have a huge amount of connections which make 4 daily flights viable, i'd not be surprised to see a 5th daily SQ, starting seasonal a few days a week and going from there over 1-2 years. Then they can look at the slightly larger 78J to further increase capacity, its about operating costs these days, the A359 is a lot cheaper to operate than a 77W.
 
lessredtape
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:48 am

aerohottie wrote:
19hrs 19 min flight time for QF7879 LHR/SYD.
Doesn't seem to bad...

Interested to read some reviews of the pax onboard
but how many will pay double or even more to save a few hours & in a recession ?

Just saw a return fare to EU on Thai, departing in late May, a much better airline that QF for $950 all inclusive.
 
lessredtape
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:52 am

qf2220 wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
kriskim wrote:
EK axes BNE-SIN-DXB from 30 March next year, the flights will not be replaced. The airline cites that the route suffered heavy losses as the reason.

EK will continue to offer MEL-SIN-DXB service daily.
to SIN
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/c ... ompetition


Strong rumours that SQ will launch 5x daily BNE soon... we will see.


No chance of a QF step up then? Even to say 10/11 pw?
QF ? Who wants to fly QF to SIN. No one wanted to fly EK & can you blaim them. SQ is the only way to SIN.
 
anstar
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:59 am

zkncj wrote:

Worst case you just slap an ZK-*** rego on the A321NEO with an 200 seats if CASA wouldn't allow 1to50 to operate an 321NEO.

NZ operates operates that 214 seater A321NEO's with 5 crew, with 2x at 1L, 1x at 3R, and 1x at L


Losing 32 seats just to reduce the crew count to 200 doesn't make sense. You may as well operate the A320neo instead of the 321 if you are going to do that!
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:04 am

[quote="ZK-NBT"]Sure EK are saying that there is "over capacity" on the route but like I said earlier they are the fifth freedom operator getting the lower yielding traffic and the cost for them to operate this tag is makes it unsustainable for them, SQ have done to EK what EK have done to many airlines around the world... [/quote]

Yet they are willing to keep MEL-SIN despite SQ, QF and TR all on this route as well. JQ’s capacity exiting gets picked up over night with TR increasing. Since QF doesn’t appear interested in adding any more BNE-SIN as well it looks like the market is adjusting to a more balanced capacity.
NSW based avgeek
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:24 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Sure EK are saying that there is "over capacity" on the route but like I said earlier they are the fifth freedom operator getting the lower yielding traffic and the cost for them to operate this tag is makes it unsustainable for them, SQ have done to EK what EK have done to many airlines around the world...


Yet they are willing to keep MEL-SIN despite SQ, QF and TR all on this route as well. JQ’s capacity exiting gets picked up over night with TR increasing. Since QF doesn’t appear interested in adding any more BNE-SIN as well it looks like the market is adjusting to a more balanced capacity.


MEL-SIN is the last fifth freedom EK route from Australia bar SYD-CHC, how long will either of these last? Previously they flew at the same time

KUL-MEL
SIN-MEL-
SIN-BNE
BKK-SYD
AKL-MEL
AKL-BNE
AKL-SYD

SIN-SYD (replaced with BKK-SYD)
MEL-CHC (replaced with SYD-CHC)

Either way it will be interesting to watch QF and SQ here.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:30 am

Just shows that the MEL-SIN and SYD-SIN markets can handle more competition.
In any event QF must think there’s too much capacity on this route as well.
NSW based avgeek
 
kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:26 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
The numbers for Thai AAX above on BNE-DMK don't point to a strong market. It sounds as though there is significant overcapacity in the Brisbane-SE Asia market so I doubt that SQ are going to rush to back fill the loss of EK.


Considering that TG and MH both operate only 4 weekly at BNE, SQ is the only major SE Asian carrier with a strong hold on the BNE market. Compare that to MEL and SYD where these carriers operate up to 2 daily flights, TG flies to MEL double daily, whilst MH has bumped MEL up to 17 weekly this season.

A fifth seasonal service (3-4 weekly) from SQ seems like a very plausible outcome IMO. But if SQ wants to maintain yield, they will just keep capacity as is, or up-gaguge one of the existing flights.

SeaEagle8 wrote:
Just shows that the MEL-SIN and SYD-SIN markets can handle more competition.
In any event QF must think there’s too much capacity on this route as well.


I agree, EK's MEL-SIN service also leaves at a more comfortable time compared to the BNE service.

Also I don't think that JQ failed on MEL-SIN, its more that the Qantas Group is rightsizing its capacity on the route, QF did add alot of capacity quite quickly (upgauging to A380 and new daily A330 flight), whilst reducing JQ's presence to a token 2 weekly service. Scoot is adding more flights, operating up to 10 weekly flights, so more capacity is actually being added. SQ also bumps MEL-SIN up to 33 weekly in the new year.

MEL-SIN is a large O&D/VFR market, so the dynamics is very different to BNE-SIN, theres people who go to MEL for just the weekend.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:05 pm

kriskim wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
The numbers for Thai AAX above on BNE-DMK don't point to a strong market. It sounds as though there is significant overcapacity in the Brisbane-SE Asia market so I doubt that SQ are going to rush to back fill the loss of EK.


Considering that TG and MH both operate only 4 weekly at BNE, SQ is the only major SE Asian carrier with a strong hold on the BNE market. Compare that to MEL and SYD where these carriers operate up to 2 daily flights, TG flies to MEL double daily, whilst MH has bumped MEL up to 17 weekly this season.

A fifth seasonal service (3-4 weekly) from SQ seems like a very plausible outcome IMO. But if SQ wants to maintain yield, they will just keep capacity as is, or up-gaguge one of the existing flights.

SeaEagle8 wrote:
Just shows that the MEL-SIN and SYD-SIN markets can handle more competition.
In any event QF must think there’s too much capacity on this route as well.


I agree, EK's MEL-SIN service also leaves at a more comfortable time compared to the BNE service.

Also I don't think that JQ failed on MEL-SIN, its more that the Qantas Group is rightsizing its capacity on the route, QF did add alot of capacity quite quickly (upgauging to A380 and new daily A330 flight), whilst reducing JQ's presence to a token 2 weekly service. Scoot is adding more flights, operating up to 10 weekly flights, so more capacity is actually being added. SQ also bumps MEL-SIN up to 33 weekly in the new year.

MEL-SIN is a large O&D/VFR market, so the dynamics is very different to BNE-SIN, theres people who go to MEL for just the weekend.


I agree here MEL-SIN is 33 weekly soon, 28 weekly use 4 class aircraft mainly 77W with 1 A380 in peak times, the WLG sector now also a long haul 3 class A359 soon 5 weekly, SYD is 35 weekly 4 class services, 2 A380s and 3 77Ws.

BNE is a lot more Y heavy with 1 flight getting a long haul 3 class 359, there was briefly 3 services with the long haul product but they seem to have realised maybe that BNE needs more Y seats, they can still get a decent yield in Y if they have more Y and less J and W if they can’t fill the premium seats but can fill the Y seats.

PER is similar to BNE though part of me is somewhat surprised they don’t throw in 1 A380 between its long haul flights ex SIN.

As you say SQ are by far the strongest ex BNE so more capacity to sure up their position seems entirely plausible.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:52 am

SQ may not want to add capacity now that EK is pulling out. The additional capacity added was absorbed at under 70% so there is some yield management that can be worked instead of adding seats. Again adding a 5th daily would dump 220,000 additional seats assuming they added another regional A350.
NSW based avgeek
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:29 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
SQ may not want to add capacity now that EK is pulling out. The additional capacity added was absorbed at under 70% so there is some yield management that can be worked instead of adding seats. Again adding a 5th daily would dump 220,000 additional seats assuming they added another regional A350.


Agreed.

I could maybe see a seasonal increase in Summer 2020/21, but certainly not for the next 12 months or so.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:00 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
SQ may not want to add capacity now that EK is pulling out. The additional capacity added was absorbed at under 70% so there is some yield management that can be worked instead of adding seats. Again adding a 5th daily would dump 220,000 additional seats assuming they added another regional A350.


BNE-SIN capacity increases (without adding flights) could probably be done by up-gauging existing services, mostly targeting the 3x BNE-SIN services which use the regional A359 configuration.

E.g 2 of the A359R services ex-BNE could be up-gauged to the 78J to increase Y seats for example while roughly maintaining the J seat count.

As for the earlier post re: PER and A380s, PER wouldn't really have the F demand for SQ to send the A380 their way. Blocking off F or selling that as J to PER wouldn't make sense either.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:07 am

JQ973 PER-MEL turned back to PER over Esperance today due to a tech issue, aircraft has since positioned back to MEL for further attention
Forum Moderator
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:58 am

SCFlyer wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
SQ may not want to add capacity now that EK is pulling out. The additional capacity added was absorbed at under 70% so there is some yield management that can be worked instead of adding seats. Again adding a 5th daily would dump 220,000 additional seats assuming they added another regional A350.


BNE-SIN capacity increases (without adding flights) could probably be done by up-gauging existing services, mostly targeting the 3x BNE-SIN services which use the regional A359 configuration.

E.g 2 of the A359R services ex-BNE could be up-gauged to the 78J to increase Y seats for example while roughly maintaining the J seat count.

As for the earlier post re: PER and A380s, PER wouldn't really have the F demand for SQ to send the A380 their way. Blocking off F or selling that as J to PER wouldn't make sense either.


The A380 to PER part was more partly as it could potentially fit in between long haul flights, different product as well although that’s not uncommon, it’s not uncommon for F to get blocked, it is Suites in this case. Probably been looked at and won’t happen.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:03 pm

Let's not forget that massive upswing in BNE-SIN pax are mostly transit pax, not SIN O&D.
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