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SQ317
Posts: 133
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:03 pm

NZ516 wrote:
What was alarming was also from the Australian thread. That EK's load factor on the SYD to CHC route is just below 40% they must be losing a fortune. If it remains this low for much longer can see them pulling out of Christchurch and park up the A380 in Sydney for the day will be cheaper than flying the expensive tag on with very little revenue coming in. They can code share with Qantas on the route which could benefit both airlines.


Does this LF include through traffic though? I'm not sure it would. So 40% + traffic booked xxx-DXB-CHC. Approx 200 pax on SYD-CHC alone is pretty good
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:04 pm

zkncj wrote:
SYD has become over rated, will all the New Zealand to Asia’s option for under $1000 an holiday in Sydney is now pretty pricy when you add in ground cost.

Also there is more non-stop Australia-ZQN services, the demand of people going via CHC would likely reduce.


Based on this then when or will anyone operate to the new Western Sydney Airport and if so, when and who?

Due to open in about 6 years I think.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 475
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:39 pm

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
SYD has become over rated, will all the New Zealand to Asia’s option for under $1000 an holiday in Sydney is now pretty pricy when you add in ground cost.

Also there is more non-stop Australia-ZQN services, the demand of people going via CHC would likely reduce.


Based on this then when or will anyone operate to the new Western Sydney Airport and if so, when and who?

Due to open in about 6 years I think.


I'm not sure if you're being serious or not but given Sydney is a city of over 5 million people and one of the wealthiest cities on Earth I'm sure they'll be ok. Within 6 years there'll be a few hundred thousand more people as well.

Sydney is expensive to visit because there is demand.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1616
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:08 pm

NTLDaz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
SYD has become over rated, will all the New Zealand to Asia’s option for under $1000 an holiday in Sydney is now pretty pricy when you add in ground cost.

Also there is more non-stop Australia-ZQN services, the demand of people going via CHC would likely reduce.


Based on this then when or will anyone operate to the new Western Sydney Airport and if so, when and who?

Due to open in about 6 years I think.


I'm not sure if you're being serious or not but given Sydney is a city of over 5 million people and one of the wealthiest cities on Earth I'm sure they'll be ok. Within 6 years there'll be a few hundred thousand more people as well.

Sydney is expensive to visit because there is demand.


I'm not sure what you're even saying....

SYD is an expensive airport and we know a second airport is coming, will we see all carriers operating to it to keep costs down? if so from where will all carriers operate from? Will airlines operate to both, considering the likes of JQ? All is unknown as of now. I was just curious to what others thoughts were.

I realise zknjc is likely talking about other costs such as accommodation in SYD but airfares to SYD are challenging as the airport is costly.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2793
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:28 pm

zkncj wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

You're spot on, there's a lot of competition and two main carriers offer very reasonable prices over their 3 brands. So poor VA is left stuck in the no-mans-land, yelling out in a crowded market that they're full service yet not offering special including a BYO device policy for IFE.

The average punter has no incentive to fly them, many unfortunately were probably forced to under the NZ alliance and were disappointed which leaves VA with a further uphill obstacle.

I'm starting to wonder how long we will them in NZ for.

DUD offers unique convinced so of no surprise there. Do I dare call it a monopoly route?


Oh come off it. This is hardly the massive cuts that you all foretold when VA started on it's own trans Tasman. Even I'm amazed it's been so limited. And they're operating more than pre NZ split. Meanwhile EK loads on SYD-CHC have collapsed too. Something's going on there. And yes I got all this from the aussie thread.

And IFE... are you serious? I get a meal and bag included and byo device. NZ still tries to tell me I can have their pre ordained "choices" at the same price as the competition, aka I pay the same but get less. Weak. Not to mention the better frequent flyer program as an Australian based passenger.

Even the cuts in Australia are substantially less than expected. They've even added frequencies on VA metal where it apparently makes sense.

But VA death watch on the kiwi threads is kind of a tradition so... go for gold!


SYD has become over rated, will all the New Zealand to Asia’s option for under $1000 an holiday in Sydney is now pretty pricy when you add in ground cost.

Also there is more non-stop Australia-ZQN services, the demand of people going via CHC would likely reduce.


Good points. ZQN services have increased a lot over the years. I wonder how long EK willhold out.
 
NZ516
Posts: 466
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:51 pm

Johnv707 wrote:
Please help my memory. I thought that I read about 6 weeks ago a statement from Air New Zealand that all B787s with RR engine issues would be back in service by Nov 1. However I see that NZE still has not flown. I also read that the ground damage had been repaired long ago. Can someone with some meaningful knowledge provide an update on what is happening? Thanks in advance


I would presume that the engines have been delayed again from Rolls Royce. As originally they were all to be back in service by June, then it was August and then November. So that the due date from back in service is only an estimate given out by the airline for the share market information etc.
 
NZ516
Posts: 466
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:04 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/287294/air-new-zealand-nw20-hong-kong-preliminary-aircraft-changes/

789 scheduled to HKG from October 2020 for NW20/21.

This has to be coming off another route as there are now no more 789s to be delivered. Not sure I’d code 1 or code 2, however they would need more code 2 frames to be converted if they plan to use a code 2, with EWR starting then ORD/YVR/SIN.

Like I have said before maybe SIN could get a 77W with LHR being dropped? Or NRT 77W, I think either or both could go 772, PER is shorter and could go 772.


Unless there is another leased frame or two, that they looking into.

Sometimes leased frames do come up, as airlines originally ordered have deferred closer to drivery.


The 772s have to go somewhere, there is only so many needed on short haul.

That would mean only IAH and the odd LAX/SFO are 772.


This is an interesting development with all the non USA routes becoming 789s. They could start to retire the 772 fleet straight after London ends which will free up 3 77Ws. They won't need 8 772s used on the Tasman and Pacific Island routes and the odd US service occasionally now and then. Maybe we will see them with just 5 772s in service in 2021. Don't think they will order any more 789s yet as they are trying to save money and need to pay for the large number of recently delivered aircraft first.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:42 am

NZ6 wrote:
All I'll say is the vast majority of passengers purchase the Works, but a good chunk opt to save money and buy Seat only or Seat + Bag.

Really? That's a surprise to me, from personal observation. But I'm sure that you have more comprehensive knowledge on this than I.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NTLDaz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:34 am

NZ6 wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Based on this then when or will anyone operate to the new Western Sydney Airport and if so, when and who?

Due to open in about 6 years I think.


I'm not sure if you're being serious or not but given Sydney is a city of over 5 million people and one of the wealthiest cities on Earth I'm sure they'll be ok. Within 6 years there'll be a few hundred thousand more people as well.

Sydney is expensive to visit because there is demand.


I'm not sure what you're even saying....

SYD is an expensive airport and we know a second airport is coming, will we see all carriers operating to it to keep costs down? if so from where will all carriers operate from? Will airlines operate to both, considering the likes of JQ? All is unknown as of now. I was just curious to what others thoughts were.

I realise zknjc is likely talking about other costs such as accommodation in SYD but airfares to SYD are challenging as the airport is costly.


Your post started with ' based on this ' referencing the post saying a trip to Sydney was ( paraphrasing) expensive. You then asked when or if anyone would operate to the new Sydney Airport. Now I'm confused.

The airport charges of SYD are the least of anyone's problem when pricing a trip to Australia.

My guess is NZ will be one of the first ( if not the first ) international carrier out of SWZ.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:51 am

NTLDaz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:

I'm not sure if you're being serious or not but given Sydney is a city of over 5 million people and one of the wealthiest cities on Earth I'm sure they'll be ok. Within 6 years there'll be a few hundred thousand more people as well.

Sydney is expensive to visit because there is demand.


I'm not sure what you're even saying....

SYD is an expensive airport and we know a second airport is coming, will we see all carriers operating to it to keep costs down? if so from where will all carriers operate from? Will airlines operate to both, considering the likes of JQ? All is unknown as of now. I was just curious to what others thoughts were.

I realise zknjc is likely talking about other costs such as accommodation in SYD but airfares to SYD are challenging as the airport is costly.


Your post started with ' based on this ' referencing the post saying a trip to Sydney was ( paraphrasing) expensive. You then asked when or if anyone would operate to the new Sydney Airport. Now I'm confused.

The airport charges of SYD are the least of anyone's problem when pricing a trip to Australia.

My guess is NZ will be one of the first ( if not the first ) international carrier out of SWZ.


"Based on this" was in response to zknjc who was commenting on how Sydney is very expensive especially compared to the cheap travel into Asia for under $1000. Now while I acknowledge accommodation in CBD Sydney is probably one of the biggest expenses (especially for 4-5 star hotels) my point was, will the second airport in Sydney reduce the cost to airlines and therefore allow cheaper travel...

Further to that, will QF, VA, JQ, NZ or TR fly from there? and if so to where?

You're thinking NZ will go first, will we see flights to CHC then? Will that reduce airfares or has CHC shrunk given the ZQN frequency increase. Will CHC see flights to both airports.

Personally, I'm interested to see what happens.
 
lessredtape
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:02 am

NTLDaz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:

I'm not sure if you're being serious or not but given Sydney is a city of over 5 million people and one of the wealthiest cities on Earth I'm sure they'll be ok. Within 6 years there'll be a few hundred thousand more people as well.

Sydney is expensive to visit because there is demand.


I'm not sure what you're even saying....

SYD is an expensive airport and we know a second airport is coming, will we see all carriers operating to it to keep costs down? if so from where will all carriers operate from? Will airlines operate to both, considering the likes of JQ? All is unknown as of now. I was just curious to what others thoughts were.

I realise zknjc is likely talking about other costs such as accommodation in SYD but airfares to SYD are challenging as the airport is costly.


Your post started with ' based on this ' referencing the post saying a trip to Sydney was ( paraphrasing) expensive. You then asked when or if anyone would operate to the new Sydney Airport. Now I'm confused.

The airport charges of SYD are the least of anyone's problem when pricing a trip to Australia.

My guess is NZ will be one of the first ( if not the first ) international carrier out of SWZ.
of course trans-Tasman services will be some of the 1st out of SWZ. But also probably any LCC.

Parramatta is apparently the 5th biggest metropolis in OZ, ahead of ADL & only behind BNE, SYD, MEL & PER.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:07 am

Personally I would think only AKL being the bigger market will get flights to both the airports in Sydney. With WLG and CHC staying with flights only to Mascot.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:10 am

lessredtape wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

I'm not sure what you're even saying....

SYD is an expensive airport and we know a second airport is coming, will we see all carriers operating to it to keep costs down? if so from where will all carriers operate from? Will airlines operate to both, considering the likes of JQ? All is unknown as of now. I was just curious to what others thoughts were.

I realise zknjc is likely talking about other costs such as accommodation in SYD but airfares to SYD are challenging as the airport is costly.


Your post started with ' based on this ' referencing the post saying a trip to Sydney was ( paraphrasing) expensive. You then asked when or if anyone would operate to the new Sydney Airport. Now I'm confused.

The airport charges of SYD are the least of anyone's problem when pricing a trip to Australia.

My guess is NZ will be one of the first ( if not the first ) international carrier out of SWZ.
of course trans-Tasman services will be some of the 1st out of SWZ. But also probably any LCC.

Parramatta is apparently the 5th biggest metropolis in OZ, ahead of ADL & only behind BNE, SYD, MEL & PER.


Not Parramatta as such but the western suburbs. There are probably more Kiwis in the western suburbs than some sizeable NZ cities.
 
changeforadoll
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:00 am

Does anyone know the latest on if Dunedin will ever get a Sydney flight back? Haven't heard anything in a while. Not sure if they're even trying at the moment.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:01 am

NZ516 wrote:
Personally I would think only AKL being the bigger market will get flights to both the airports in Sydney. With WLG and CHC staying with flights only to Mascot.


I'm tending to lean this way for now as well.

However, there's a massive population in western Sydney, and of that a large population or Kiwis in there. Could it be similar to BNE and OOL, we'll see more even daily in SYD but 2-3 times a week into SWZ

AKL I'd imagine would go daily pretty quick.

Will be interesting to see if there's any price advantage or what SWZ charge, we may yet find high fees to recover the costs.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:49 am

NZ6 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Personally I would think only AKL being the bigger market will get flights to both the airports in Sydney. With WLG and CHC staying with flights only to Mascot.


I'm tending to lean this way for now as well.

However, there's a massive population in western Sydney, and of that a large population or Kiwis in there. Could it be similar to BNE and OOL, we'll see more even daily in SYD but 2-3 times a week into SWZ

AKL I'd imagine would go daily pretty quick.

Will be interesting to see if there's any price advantage or what SWZ charge, we may yet find high fees to recover the costs.


I agree AKL is a no brainer. CHC would probably be a wait and see approach.

Even if there's not a huge difference in airport charges there'll still be services. Airlines will want to tap in to the western Sydney population which is bigger than Auckland. Unless you know Sydney it's hard to comprehend the nightmare of getting to SYD for much of the day from the suburbs. I once left for a 40km trip to the airport for a flight 4 hours before departure to have plenty of time in the QF First lounge. I almost missed the flight.

SYD is beautiful if heading into the city. Not real good from the outer suburbs.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:08 am

NTLDaz wrote:
I agree AKL is a no brainer. CHC would probably be a wait and see approach.

Even if there's not a huge difference in airport charges there'll still be services. Airlines will want to tap in to the western Sydney population which is bigger than Auckland. Unless you know Sydney it's hard to comprehend the nightmare of getting to SYD for much of the day from the suburbs. I once left for a 40km trip to the airport for a flight 4 hours before departure to have plenty of time in the QF First lounge. I almost missed the flight.

SYD is beautiful if heading into the city. Not real good from the outer suburbs.


The other side is it increases the airline costs with regard to GHA and direct staff. The SYD Airport manager will likely oversee both, I'm sure BNE oversees OOL as well, but there's be a duty manager required at each etc.

I've always wondered how residents in Blacktown, Penrith, Campbeltown etc manage to get to SYD for a business flight.

Similar things are happening in AKL, Silverdale, Warkworth, Kumeu/Helensville. Penrith-SYD is about 60km, Silverdale to Auckland is just under 60km. Admittedly there's about another 3.5million residents in SYD but it's why Auckland should secure land now for a second airport.
 
pewpew320
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:41 am

From Campbelltown the train is the obvious choice and I saw it a lot when living there. As for Penrith/Blacktown, public transport would require you to go all the way to Central and transfer, definitely not ideal.
 
VHVXB
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:47 am

NZ6 wrote:
I've always wondered how residents in Blacktown, Penrith, Campbeltown etc manage to get to SYD for a business flight.

Car and/or train. I see people do one or the other everyday.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:55 am

VHVXB wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I've always wondered how residents in Blacktown, Penrith, Campbeltown etc manage to get to SYD for a business flight.

Car and/or train. I see people do one or the other everyday.


LOL, Yeah I knew how they did it in a physical sense more about how the being themselves to do it given the distance.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:19 am

NZ516 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Unless there is another leased frame or two, that they looking into.

Sometimes leased frames do come up, as airlines originally ordered have deferred closer to drivery.


The 772s have to go somewhere, there is only so many needed on short haul.

That would mean only IAH and the odd LAX/SFO are 772.


This is an interesting development with all the non USA routes becoming 789s. They could start to retire the 772 fleet straight after London ends which will free up 3 77Ws. They won't need 8 772s used on the Tasman and Pacific Island routes and the odd US service occasionally now and then. Maybe we will see them with just 5 772s in service in 2021. Don't think they will order any more 789s yet as they are trying to save money and need to pay for the large number of recently delivered aircraft first.



I doubt they will retire any 772s, unless the market crumbles big time, I believe they have early lease expiration on some 777s including 77Ws from memory.

There is no way all non USA routes excluding ORD/EWR can be operated by the 789 fleet, talking NRT/KIX/HKG/ICN/TPE/CHC-AKL-SIN/HNL/PER/YVR/ORD/EWR/EZE, for all those at current peak time frequency you would be looking at 15/16 frames not allowing for any I’ve missed or increases.

I’d see HNL being a 772 as it is this year along with NRT/PER which can use 2 frames for the daily services, additional services might use 789s still.
 
Gangurru
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:43 am

As the anniversary of Erebus approaches, Stuff have loaded a series of podcast on the events of forty years ago.

https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2019/1 ... e-podcast/
 
VHVXB
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:16 am

NZ6 wrote:
VHVXB wrote:
LOL, Yeah I knew how they did it in a physical sense more about how the being themselves to do it given the distance.

I don't think distance is much an issue as opposed to time.

With public transport from Penrith it takes roughly 75 minutes to get to the domestic terminal. There have been significant improvements in timetabling in recent years with more rail services being scheduled thus eliminating service gaps. From my observation I find that most people who make the trek from the greater west whether it business or leisure traveler are accustomed to the distance
 
NTLDaz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:23 am

VHVXB wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
VHVXB wrote:
LOL, Yeah I knew how they did it in a physical sense more about how the being themselves to do it given the distance.

I don't think distance is much an issue as opposed to time.

With public transport from Penrith it takes roughly 75 minutes to get to the domestic terminal. There have been significant improvements in timetabling in recent years with more rail services being scheduled thus eliminating service gaps. From my observation I find that most people who make the trek from the greater west whether it business or leisure traveler are accustomed to the distance


75minutes is if everything goes perfectly. 1 hour from Penrith to Central and 15 minutes from Central to the airport. Actually almost impossible. You've got to change platforms and then wait for a train. 90 minutes best case scenario. BTW nobody lives at the station.
 
Deepinsider
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:30 am

Johnv707 wrote:
Please help my memory. I thought that I read about 6 weeks ago a statement from Air New Zealand that all B787s with RR engine issues would be back in service by Nov 1. However I see that NZE still has not flown. I also read that the ground damage had been repaired long ago. Can someone with some meaningful knowledge provide an update on what is happening? Thanks in advance

I have no knowledge to provide an update on this.
The Trent issues, with available engines being mixed/matched to various airframes,
has led to a situation that might not make it obvious one airframe may not be serviceable
while all this goes on.
One could speculate that debris from a Trent failure damaged the composite aiframe.
One could speculate that it is a struggle to repair composite structures.
Silence from AirNZ, RR, and Boeing would indicate there is no such trouble, and
such thoughts will soon be settled when it next takes to the air.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:03 pm

NZ6 wrote:
The other side is it increases the airline costs with regard to GHA and direct staff. The SYD Airport manager will likely oversee both, I'm sure BNE oversees OOL as well, but there's be a duty manager required at each etc.

I've always wondered how residents in Blacktown, Penrith, Campbeltown etc manage to get to SYD for a business flight.


The NZ BNE station manager also oversees OOL & MCY. There might not be a duty manager at OOL/MCY- it may all be outsourced to the ground handler. A few carriers have worked like this at BNE: FJ, OD, EY where there is only one staff and they can't work 7 days a week... if a problem comes up they have to call the station manager to resolve.

Campbelltown residents will probably use the Prices Highway. The best option is to take the train for the outlying areas.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:58 pm

VHVXB wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
VHVXB wrote:
LOL, Yeah I knew how they did it in a physical sense more about how the being themselves to do it given the distance.

I don't think distance is much an issue as opposed to time.

With public transport from Penrith it takes roughly 75 minutes to get to the domestic terminal. There have been significant improvements in timetabling in recent years with more rail services being scheduled thus eliminating service gaps. From my observation I find that most people who make the trek from the greater west whether it business or leisure traveler are accustomed to the distance


Distance often equals time. This is quickly becoming a topic it's not. I'm not suggesting they can't or don't do it. I'm just highlighting it's a massive inconvenience and one which will be overcome with the second airport, here's what I mean.

Google search Penrith to SYD.
- A car just under an hour but for under 3 days parking it was $96 as per the SYD website (of course being dropped off is an option but for a 2-hour trip - the families got to love you)
- Train from Penrith station, 1hour 36 mins to SYD. You still need to get from home to Penrith station and get from the Station at SYD to check-in. Also, with over an hour and a half on a train that's 'on time,' I'm sure you'd also want to add some slippage into that. So you're looking at a total travel time of closer to over 2 hours.

Anyway as I said above, I'm sure people do it, in fact, I have no doubt people so it. Having personally taken the train to Penrith and Blacktown a few times, I know how long it can take. This just links back into will international travellers opt for or prefer to travel from WSZ and will there be enough demand for WLG and CHC on top of AKL
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:04 pm

eta unknown wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
The other side is it increases the airline costs with regard to GHA and direct staff. The SYD Airport manager will likely oversee both, I'm sure BNE oversees OOL as well, but there's be a duty manager required at each etc.

I've always wondered how residents in Blacktown, Penrith, Campbeltown etc manage to get to SYD for a business flight.


The NZ BNE station manager also oversees OOL & MCY. There might not be a duty manager at OOL/MCY- it may all be outsourced to the ground handler. A few carriers have worked like this at BNE: FJ, OD, EY where there is only one staff and they can't work 7 days a week... if a problem comes up they have to call the station manager to resolve.

Campbelltown residents will probably use the Prices Highway. The best option is to take the train for the outlying areas.


Cheers, I didn't think it had changed.

Assume Sydney will go the same way.

I'm sure they will use the Princes Highway, as above it's more about how many will choose/prefer WSZ over SYD and what will that make the airlines do over the physical options.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:22 pm

Umm, SWZ, surely! WSZ is Westport. Took me a couple of minutes to figure out what you meant!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:41 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Umm, SWZ, surely! WSZ is Westport. Took me a couple of minutes to figure out what you meant!


Clearly an error!
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:11 pm

changeforadoll wrote:
Does anyone know the latest on if Dunedin will ever get a Sydney flight back? Haven't heard anything in a while. Not sure if they're even trying at the moment.

No thoughts that I heard, but I would think entirely possible. CZ did consider a CAN-DUD-CHC-CAN route, but Dunedin airport decided that the stand 1 modifications would be too expensive.
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
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NZ516
Posts: 466
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:39 pm

SQ317 wrote:
Does this LF include through traffic though? I'm not sure it would. So 40% + traffic booked xxx-DXB-CHC. Approx 200 pax on SYD-CHC alone is pretty good


If its not including the through traffic loads should be higher and will have the potential to improve now that JQ has left the route and soon VA as well
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:50 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
You might be right on the money. Service extended to year round hopefully.


I would have doubts that it will go year round anytime soon, if ever, popular in NZ winter, and as we keep saying more profitable markets to send a 789 in summer, KIX/PER for starters.


The DPS routes out of Australia are the busiest during Christmas school holidays so would not be too different for the NZ market. Air NZ is the only airline flying to DPS seasonally. KIX and PER are important routes as well just saying they could fly to them both. Many years ago DPS was served year round back in the 90s. Just thinking Air NZ is missing out on this route by leaving it as seasonal.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:03 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

The 772s have to go somewhere, there is only so many needed on short haul.

That would mean only IAH and the odd LAX/SFO are 772.


This is an interesting development with all the non USA routes becoming 789s. They could start to retire the 772 fleet straight after London ends which will free up 3 77Ws. They won't need 8 772s used on the Tasman and Pacific Island routes and the odd US service occasionally now and then. Maybe we will see them with just 5 772s in service in 2021. Don't think they will order any more 789s yet as they are trying to save money and need to pay for the large number of recently delivered aircraft first.



I doubt they will retire any 772s, unless the market crumbles big time, I believe they have early lease expiration on some 777s including 77Ws from memory.

There is no way all non USA routes excluding ORD/EWR can be operated by the 789 fleet, talking NRT/KIX/HKG/ICN/TPE/CHC-AKL-SIN/HNL/PER/YVR/ORD/EWR/EZE, for all those at current peak time frequency you would be looking at 15/16 frames not allowing for any I’ve missed or increases.

I’d see HNL being a 772 as it is this year along with NRT/PER which can use 2 frames for the daily services, additional services might use 789s still.



All I can say is there must be further updates and changes aircraft swaps etc to be announced for the 789 to do HKG. As you say most likely NRT getting 777s permanently as will most likely be performing better than HKG.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:10 am

Fly My Sky has started daily flights to Matamata from Auckland for quick access to Hobbiton two flights a day are available. This might do well for them and hopefully will last longer than their Whangarei route:

http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2019/11/ ... shire.html
 
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hic787
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:07 am

Quick update here on the Air NZ operation for LAX, IAH and EWR from next October:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-changes/
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:17 am

NZ516 wrote:
The DPS routes out of Australia are the busiest during Christmas school holidays so would not be too different for the NZ market. Air NZ is the only airline flying to DPS seasonally. KIX and PER are important routes as well just saying they could fly to them both. Many years ago DPS was served year round back in the 90s. Just thinking Air NZ is missing out on this route by leaving it as seasonal.

The reason may be the imbalance between summer and winter capacity. In the winter the only seasonal wide body services are DPS and an increase in HNL frequency (plus a bit of extra Pacific Island capacity). In the summer, the airline ramps up to daily on most of their flights to the Americas, adds flights on CHC-PER and SIN (though some of this is transferred from AKL-SIN IIRC), and extra flights to NRT, SEL, TPE. Rather than adding yet more flights in the summer, it would make sense to find routes which could be profitably served in the winter to balance that summer capacity. I’m thinking of AKL-SGN (again), MNL and HKT, plus CHC-DPS and HNL as possibilities. However, there’s going to be a limit to the amount of winter holiday capacity that could be sold, so its likely that even with some new route(s) there will still be some downtime available for heavy maintenance if required.

I just can’t see the carrier investing in more capacity to enhance summer offerings that will sit idle over winter when they already have several aircraft already idle at this time of year. The low-hanging fruit will be a new winter seasonal services IMHO.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:39 am

LamboAston wrote:
changeforadoll wrote:
Does anyone know the latest on if Dunedin will ever get a Sydney flight back? Haven't heard anything in a while. Not sure if they're even trying at the moment.

No thoughts that I heard, but I would think entirely possible. CZ did consider a CAN-DUD-CHC-CAN route, but Dunedin airport decided that the stand 1 modifications would be too expensive.


Could you elaborate where you heard this? Seems completely fanciful - if they were prepared to operate triangles (and its a big call given the cost) surely they would be doing CAN-WLG-CHC-CAN before they even remotely thought about DUD?
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:46 am

hic787 wrote:
Quick update here on the Air NZ operation for LAX, IAH and EWR from next October:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-changes/


So the last flight from London is 24 October 2020. Houston is 5 per week with 77W, might be affected with American on DFW, and LAX is 13 with different times and using NZ3 as a replacement for NZ1. Wonder what changes are in store for SFO will it be back to daily with United running daily as well.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7537
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:50 am

NZ516 wrote:
hic787 wrote:
Quick update here on the Air NZ operation for LAX, IAH and EWR from next October:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-changes/


So the last flight from London is 24 October 2020. Houston is 5 per week with 77W, might be affected with American on DFW, and LAX is 13 with different times and using NZ3 as a replacement for NZ1. Wonder what changes are in store for SFO will it be back to daily with United running daily as well.


That’s only for the month of November at this stage. NZ won’t reduce IAH because of AA to DFW, certainly not straight away, more likely a daily 77W DEC-FEB. Good to see an earlier LAX flight again, I can’t see SFO not being daily DEC-FEB atleast, both NZ/UA are daily this year with UA going 78J, slightly smaller and cheaper operating costs.
 
Motorhussy
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:41 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
hic787 wrote:
Quick update here on the Air NZ operation for LAX, IAH and EWR from next October:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-changes/


So the last flight from London is 24 October 2020. Houston is 5 per week with 77W, might be affected with American on DFW, and LAX is 13 with different times and using NZ3 as a replacement for NZ1. Wonder what changes are in store for SFO will it be back to daily with United running daily as well.


That’s only for the month of November at this stage. NZ won’t reduce IAH because of AA to DFW, certainly not straight away, more likely a daily 77W DEC-FEB. Good to see an earlier LAX flight again, I can’t see SFO not being daily DEC-FEB atleast, both NZ/UA are daily this year with UA going 78J, slightly smaller and cheaper operating costs.


Back up the bus here, UA going 781 on SFO-AKL!? That’s huge news if correct, which TBH I doubt very much. Any links to sources?
That’s a long way for a 787-10.
come visit the south pacific
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:02 am

Motorhussy wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:

So the last flight from London is 24 October 2020. Houston is 5 per week with 77W, might be affected with American on DFW, and LAX is 13 with different times and using NZ3 as a replacement for NZ1. Wonder what changes are in store for SFO will it be back to daily with United running daily as well.


That’s only for the month of November at this stage. NZ won’t reduce IAH because of AA to DFW, certainly not straight away, more likely a daily 77W DEC-FEB. Good to see an earlier LAX flight again, I can’t see SFO not being daily DEC-FEB atleast, both NZ/UA are daily this year with UA going 78J, slightly smaller and cheaper operating costs.


Back up the bus here, UA going 781 on SFO-AKL!? That’s huge news if correct, which TBH I doubt very much. Any links to sources?
That’s a long way for a 787-10.


https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-13sep19/

There are all sorts of myths out there and one is that 78J can’t fly very far, it was said its sweet spot was in the 10 hr range, we are talking 13hrs here, I’m sure there will be restrictions on freight but this is a capable plane.

Hence why as it improves im quite sure NZ will be looking very closely at it as a 77W replacement, they can test it themselves on LAX/SFO when they get them but I’m sure they will be very interested in how it performs for UA.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:17 am

I think the turn around time at EWR is on the optimistic side for peak hour, just 1 hr 30 in the winter with EWR delays. Gonna be interesting.
Plane mad!
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:51 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I think the turn around time at EWR is on the optimistic side for peak hour, just 1 hr 30 in the winter with EWR delays. Gonna be interesting.


I agree, probably move the departure forward 30mins ex AKL and push it back 30mins ex EWR, that should still fit in the hub at AKL for connections, with a 1925 departure and 0715 arrival.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:58 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I think the turn around time at EWR is on the optimistic side for peak hour, just 1 hr 30 in the winter with EWR delays. Gonna be interesting.


I agree, probably move the departure forward 30mins ex AKL and push it back 30mins ex EWR, that should still fit in the hub at AKL for connections, with a 1925 departure and 0715 arrival.


Can't go any earlier as the ADL-AKL aircraft will be used for the ORD and EWR flights and AKL-ADL can't depart earlier without affecting domestic connections. The AC YVR-EWR-YVR 788/789 has the same ground time, so it can be done.

PA515
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:16 am

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I think the turn around time at EWR is on the optimistic side for peak hour, just 1 hr 30 in the winter with EWR delays. Gonna be interesting.


I agree, probably move the departure forward 30mins ex AKL and push it back 30mins ex EWR, that should still fit in the hub at AKL for connections, with a 1925 departure and 0715 arrival.


Can't go any earlier as the ADL-AKL aircraft will be used for the ORD and EWR flights and AKL-ADL can't depart earlier without affecting domestic connections. The AC YVR-EWR-YVR 788/789 has the same ground time, so it can be done.

PA515



I’m aware the ADL flight operates about as early as it can and it does certainly affect US bound flights, good point on the aircraft, they could send the ADL aircraft to YVR which departs at the same time.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:37 am

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I think the turn around time at EWR is on the optimistic side for peak hour, just 1 hr 30 in the winter with EWR delays. Gonna be interesting.


I agree, probably move the departure forward 30mins ex AKL and push it back 30mins ex EWR, that should still fit in the hub at AKL for connections, with a 1925 departure and 0715 arrival.


Can't go any earlier as the ADL-AKL aircraft will be used for the ORD and EWR flights and AKL-ADL can't depart earlier without affecting domestic connections. The AC YVR-EWR-YVR 788/789 has the same ground time, so it can be done.

PA515


You could turn your back on domestic connections to ADL for the greater good. I mean, you can still transmit them via MEL to ADL and all southern originating PAX bound for ADL will likely prefer going over MEL or SYD on NZ/QF/VA/JQ etc anyway.

I'm sure EWR/ORD flights are more valuable than getting a few extra's onto ADL.

But on the EWR ground time, it's expected to arrive early the majority of the time. Much like ORD does.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:04 am

NZ6 wrote:
PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I agree, probably move the departure forward 30mins ex AKL and push it back 30mins ex EWR, that should still fit in the hub at AKL for connections, with a 1925 departure and 0715 arrival.


Can't go any earlier as the ADL-AKL aircraft will be used for the ORD and EWR flights and AKL-ADL can't depart earlier without affecting domestic connections. The AC YVR-EWR-YVR 788/789 has the same ground time, so it can be done.

PA515


You could turn your back on domestic connections to ADL for the greater good. I mean, you can still transmit them via MEL to ADL and all southern originating PAX bound for ADL will likely prefer going over MEL or SYD on NZ/QF/VA/JQ etc anyway.

I'm sure EWR/ORD flights are more valuable than getting a few extra's onto ADL.

But on the EWR ground time, it's expected to arrive early the majority of the time. Much like ORD does.


ADL obviously does well enough in itself at 4-5 weekly widebodies, With I’d imagine a resonance number of US connections, I guess they would want to get it to daily atleast over the peak season at some point.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:35 am

ZK-MCX (msn 687) has reached CGK and that would appear to be where it will be repainted. ZK-MCW (msn 646) had the same routing and destination in Jan 2018 and went to Novoair (VQ).

ZK-MCA (msn 597) in Aug 2017 and ZK-MCF (msn 600) in May 2018 also went to VQ, but were repainted in SGN.

PA515
 
cchan
Posts: 979
Joined: Sat May 17, 2003 8:54 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:48 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/287294/air-new-zealand-nw20-hong-kong-preliminary-aircraft-changes/

789 scheduled to HKG from October 2020 for NW20/21.

This has to be coming off another route as there are now no more 789s to be delivered. Not sure I’d code 1 or code 2, however they would need more code 2 frames to be converted if they plan to use a code 2, with EWR starting then ORD/YVR/SIN.

Like I have said before maybe SIN could get a 77W with LHR being dropped? Or NRT 77W, I think either or both could go 772, PER is shorter and could go 772.


My bet is code 1 for HKG. CX puts on 2x A350-1000 for much of NW, and this is a large increase in premium capacity over NS when CX has 1x A350-900. Wonder if HKG goes back to 77E for NS 21?

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