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SA280
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:02 pm

VV wrote:
SA280 wrote:
VV wrote:

It is very interesting indeed.

We still do not know what the real motivation is behind this hold-up.

Clearly it is a retaliation for the 10% import tax that The US has imposed on Airbus products.


I think they are just applying the decision of the WTO.

Yes, they are.

But applying it is also facultative. The US government has chosen to do so and now comes the retaliation.
 
Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:12 pm

SA280 wrote:
VV wrote:
SA280 wrote:
Clearly it is a retaliation for the 10% import tax that The US has imposed on Airbus products.


I think they are just applying the decision of the WTO.

Yes, they are.

But applying it is also facultative. The US government has chosen to do so and now comes the retaliation.

This is no retaliation. This is plain dishonesty. Simple as that, very popular indeed.
 
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scbriml
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:52 pm

Nean1 wrote:
SA280 wrote:
VV wrote:

I think they are just applying the decision of the WTO.

Yes, they are.

But applying it is also facultative. The US government has chosen to do so and now comes the retaliation.

This is no retaliation. This is plain dishonesty. Simple as that, very popular indeed.


Say what?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:46 pm

TObound wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
HaulSudson wrote:
It appears that Air Baltic is very happy with their A220s.
They report that the A220 is better than promised by BBD in every respect. For instance : Fuel savings vs their 737-300s come in at 22% instead of the promised 19%
On the flight Brussel-Riga the per seat costs sink by 54% compared to the Q400
The management can't wait until their other planes leave the fleet and they become an all A220 airline.
Also the A220 pilots are very excited about their workplace, the state of the art avionics and capabilities.
It seems hard to overestimate the A220.


Source ???


http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/ceo-air ... el-savings


That was back on October, 2018.

I am not so sure they are happy (and Swiss too) by now since PW is not delivering what they promised ...
 
yyztpa2
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:08 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
TObound wrote:


That was back on October, 2018.

I am not so sure they are happy (and Swiss too) by now since PW is not delivering what they promised ...

For both A220 and E2 success, here is hoping P&W addresses any new issues.

From past October, after Swiss had completed checks:
"The carrier said that 20 of the aircraft had been inspected on Tuesday afternoon and overnight. “The engines are in impeccable condition, so these 20 aircraft have returned to regular flight operations,” it added in a statement."

"A spokesman for the engine maker said it was recommending additional checks for versions of the engine that power the Airbus A220 - an engine known as the PW1500G - and a rival Brazilian jet, the Embraer 190/195-E2."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKBN1WV11B
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:15 pm

[
EMBSPBR wrote:
TObound wrote:
If Scope isn't resolved, the M100 could eat a chunk of their market.

First they must deliver what they promised 11 years ago ...


Meh. Trash talk means squat. When they build that airplane (and there's no reason to think they won't succeed), they'll be the only scope compliant next-gen RJ on the market. And they have a launch customer and two US regionals onboard.[/quote]

"Great" and fresh news from the program:

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/mhi-air ... N27704FOct 22 (Reuters) -
"Japan’s Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp seeks to postpone deliveries of its SpaceJet regional airplane as it battles delays in securing regulatory certification, with one option being a six-month delay from a mid-2020 target date, the Nikkei newspaper said."
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:18 pm

TObound wrote:
It is reality that the E2 order book has some major gaps.


Gap is the amount of orders from leasing companies to A220 without customers (I will insiste in this matter).
It stands to 160 units ...
 
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scbriml
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:32 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
I am not so sure they are happy (and Swiss too) by now since PW is not delivering what they promised ...


Remind me who provides engines for the E2? :scratchchin:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:41 pm

scbriml wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
I am not so sure they are happy (and Swiss too) by now since PW is not delivering what they promised ...


Remind me who provides engines for the E2? :scratchchin:


Different versions ... we don´t had that problems so far ...
 
yyztpa2
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:34 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
scbriml wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
I am not so sure they are happy (and Swiss too) by now since PW is not delivering what they promised ...


Remind me who provides engines for the E2? :scratchchin:


Different versions ... we don´t had that problems so far ...


Post 403 lost it's link, It indicated checks were required on PW1500 powering both A220 and E2.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKBN1WV11B
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:34 am

yyztpa2 wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Remind me who provides engines for the E2? :scratchchin:


Different versions ... we don´t had that problems so far ...


Post 403 lost it's link, It indicated checks were required on PW1500 powering both A220 and E2.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKBN1WV11B



I think the hardware is almost identical.
However, it is possible the thrust requirements for E2 are below that of the ones for A220.

In addition, I am pretty sure the bleed schedule of the E2 is based on the experience acquired during E1 in-service information.

So it is very likely the inspection is just a precautionary measure on the E2.
 
Jungleneer
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:29 am

[twoid] um[/twoid]
EMBSPBR wrote:
[
EMBSPBR wrote:
TObound wrote:
If Scope isn't resolved, the M100 could eat a chunk of their market.

First they must deliver what they promised 11 years ago ...


Meh. Trash talk means squat. When they build that airplane (and there's no reason to think they won't succeed), they'll be the only scope compliant next-gen RJ on the market. And they have a launch customer and two US regionals onboard.


"Great" and fresh news from the program:

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/mhi-air ... N27704FOct 22 (Reuters) -
"Japan’s Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp seeks to postpone deliveries of its SpaceJet regional airplane as it battles delays in securing regulatory certification, with one option being a six-month delay from a mid-2020 target date, the Nikkei newspaper said."[/quote]

One of the biggest issues of delaying a new program is that the certification basis is valid for 5 years. After this period it is required to review it to the latest amendments. And this could mean several additional changes to the project.
 
Bingo1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:46 pm

VV wrote:
Bingo1 wrote:
...
That is a quite a spin on the positivity of next to no orders. You do realize that if Embraer wants to stay in business they will need to sell airplanes, right? It is admirable that Embraer is able to keep their projects on time and on budget but if they can't sell they have no future. Transversely, any company that is late and over budget but has sales stands at least a solid chance of survival.


Now, on the E190-E2 and E195-E2 there are not so many orders, but they are ramping it up very slowly. As far as orders are concerned, I do not think they need to "panic". I would panic more if I have to change engine three or three times for each aircraft during the first year of operation like AirBaltic did. Some airlines are doing it too, like Swiss.

Seriously, Embraer has an advantage being second to enter into service. In addition let us never forget that the E2 was launched FIVE damn long years after the launch of the C Series.

In my opinion they are doing pretty well so far by maintaining the development expenses close to the prediction.


I sincerely believe it is not very productive to under estimate the E190-E2 and especially the E195-E2. THere is not an urgency so far. I believe the assault in term or order can start only once the deal with Boeing will close.

When will it close? We do not know for sure yet. The investigation by the European Union is still on going. It seems the EU's approval would not be achieved before march 2020.


To compare the sales trajectory of the A220 vs the E195E2 is to compare apples to oranges.

I can understand airlines being cautious to order a clean sheet design plane from a manufacturer that is looking like it was over-extending itself and going into territory it had never traveled before. These airlines want to find out if the plane is efficient, whether the company can handle the servicing of it, and whether it's reliable. The fact that the C-series orders started off slow is zero surprise. In fact look at planes in similar scenarios (EG A300, 737 Classic) and ,most often, the order books did not grow until the plane was in service. With this I'm not arguing the fact that Airbus is a help, they were and are.

Transversely, we have the E2 series which the airlines know somewhat. After all, they've run the older version and they know the company. And now we're supposed to believe that the tie-in with Boeing will sell planes all over the place when they could hardly sell an upgrade to a KNOWN piece of equipment in the nearly SIX years from launch to the announcement of their possible Boeing joint venture?

I hope you're right that sales are coming but I've been involved in sales too long not to be concerned about this. It's in everyone's best interest if Embraer is competitive
Last edited by Bingo1 on Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Planecrzy
 
HaulSudson
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:59 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
HaulSudson wrote:
It appears that Air Baltic is very happy with their A220s.
They report that the A220 is better than promised by BBD in every respect. For instance : Fuel savings vs their 737-300s come in at 22% instead of the promised 19%
On the flight Brussel-Riga the per seat costs sink by 54% compared to the Q400
The management can't wait until their other planes leave the fleet and they become an all A220 airline.
Also the A220 pilots are very excited about their workplace, the state of the art avionics and capabilities.
It seems hard to overestimate the A220.


Source ???


Interview with the CEO (Martin Gauss) in the current edition of Aero International 12/19 (in german). Well, actually it's even the front page headline: "New Fleet of Air Baltic: Success through Efficiency"
Quote: "Das Flugzeug liefert in allen Parametern, die uns vertraglich garantiert wurden, bessere Werte".


And one of the Air Baltic pilots wrote an extensive article about the paperless cockpit and all the A/P capabilities of the aircraft, must have been issue 02/19.

It sounded paradigm shifting to me.
But maybe I was too immersed in stories of pilots of "modern" 737 Max airplanes, failing to manually turn trim wheels.
Perhaps the E2 is equally paradigm shifting, I don't know. Tell us about it.
Last edited by HaulSudson on Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TObound
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:36 pm

HaulSudson wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
HaulSudson wrote:
It appears that Air Baltic is very happy with their A220s.
They report that the A220 is better than promised by BBD in every respect. For instance : Fuel savings vs their 737-300s come in at 22% instead of the promised 19%
On the flight Brussel-Riga the per seat costs sink by 54% compared to the Q400
The management can't wait until their other planes leave the fleet and they become an all A220 airline.
Also the A220 pilots are very excited about their workplace, the state of the art avionics and capabilities.
It seems hard to overestimate the A220.


Source ???


Interview with the CEO (Martin Gauss) in the current edition of Aero International 12/19 (in german). Well, actually it's even the front page headline: "New Fleet of Air Baltic: Success through Efficiency"
Quote: "Das Flugzeug liefert in allen Parametern, die uns vertraglich garantiert wurden, bessere Werte".


And one of the Air Baltic pilots wrote an extensive article about the paperless cockpit and all the A/P capabilities of the aircraft, must have been issue 02/19.

It sounded paradigm shifting to me.
But maybe I was too immersed in stories of pilots of "modern" 737 Max airplanes, failing to manually turn trim wheels.
Perhaps the E2 is equally paradigm shifting, I don't know. Tell us about it.


I think this is the interview with the CEO:

https://en.cfts.org.ua/articles/new_air ... _airbaltic
 
HaulSudson
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 5:31 pm

TObound wrote:
HaulSudson wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:

Source ???


Interview with the CEO (Martin Gauss) in the current edition of Aero International 12/19 (in german). Well, actually it's even the front page headline: "New Fleet of Air Baltic: Success through Efficiency"
Quote: "Das Flugzeug liefert in allen Parametern, die uns vertraglich garantiert wurden, bessere Werte".


And one of the Air Baltic pilots wrote an extensive article about the paperless cockpit and all the A/P capabilities of the aircraft, must have been issue 02/19.

It sounded paradigm shifting to me.
But maybe I was too immersed in stories of pilots of "modern" 737 Max airplanes, failing to manually turn trim wheels.
Perhaps the E2 is equally paradigm shifting, I don't know. Tell us about it.


I think this is the interview with the CEO:

https://en.cfts.org.ua/articles/new_air ... _airbaltic


No, it was part of a reportage on Air Baltic in the current magazine. I hope they asked him again instead of recycling two year old interviews :mrgreen:
 
Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:55 pm

The title of this topic is quite premature, even ridiculous. The CS100 / 300 now has a fully comparable performance competitor whose production costs (fixed and variable) are much lower. The presence of the B737Max above and the E195E2 below makes sales of the A220 uneconomical as it will not be able to charge an amount compatible with its production cost. With the purchase of 80% of Embraer Comercial by Boeing, the possibility of strangling competition via dumping was ruled out. So Airbus needs all the help that EU can provide.
 
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scbriml
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:12 pm

Nean1 wrote:
The title of this topic is quite premature, even ridiculous.


The topic title is a question, so isn't in the slightest bit ridiculous.

I assume you have actual numbers to back up the rest of your claims?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Bingo1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:25 am

Nean1 wrote:
The title of this topic is quite premature, even ridiculous. The CS100 / 300 now has a fully comparable performance competitor whose production costs (fixed and variable) are much lower. The presence of the B737Max above and the E195E2 below makes sales of the A220 uneconomical as it will not be able to charge an amount compatible with its production cost. With the purchase of 80% of Embraer Comercial by Boeing, the possibility of strangling competition via dumping was ruled out. So Airbus needs all the help that EU can provide.


Ok why isn't the E195E2 selling then? Why are many former large E190/195 operators switching their entire E1 fleets over to the "baby Airbus" and not even waiting to see what Boeing can do at Embraer? I'm not saying that your claims aren't valid but if they were should we not see more orders for the E2? And, at minimum, should we not see much more loyalty from former E1 customers? Most, if not all, airlines will not switch to an all new plane type from a different company unless there are very compelling reasons to do so.
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rbavfan
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:05 am

tomcat wrote:
From a shareholder point of view, it seems that the E2 has definitely won the battle ;-).


Not in the US. None of the E2's meet the union scope clauses because the weight increased so much the E2-175 cannot get orders in the US while the E175 can. 15% more fuel burn but it meets weight limits.
 
rbavfan
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:13 am

EMBSPBR wrote:
scbriml wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
I am not so sure they are happy (and Swiss too) by now since PW is not delivering what they promised ...


Remind me who provides engines for the E2? :scratchchin:


Different versions ... we don´t had that problems so far ...


Yes and no E195E2 & few E190E2 have reached the hours of the CS100/300 engines!
 
Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:44 pm

In 2008 nobody expected the PW1500 in 2019 to still be immature. Any exempt observer will conclude that the CS / A220 family has been more harmed by this state of affairs than the 190/195E2. The low production cadence of these aircraft particularly affects those who had to make higher investments (BBD 3:1 EMB). As the investment did not result in significant operating cost and capacity advantage, the conclusion is that Airbus will not be able to charge a premium price.
 
tomcat
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:09 pm

rbavfan wrote:
tomcat wrote:
From a shareholder point of view, it seems that the E2 has definitely won the battle ;-).


Not in the US. None of the E2's meet the union scope clauses because the weight increased so much the E2-175 cannot get orders in the US while the E175 can. 15% more fuel burn but it meets weight limits.


By shareholders I meant the ones of Embraer and Bombardier. On one hand, Embraer managed to sell its civil aircraft branch for 4 billion dollars while on the other hand the commercial aircraft division of Bombardier ran out of cash thanks to the CSeries. To me, there is a clear winner.
 
yyztpa2
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:19 pm

Nean1 wrote:
In 2008 nobody expected the PW1500 in 2019 to still be immature. Any exempt observer will conclude that the CS / A220 family has been more harmed by this state of affairs than the 190/195E2. The low production cadence of these aircraft particularly affects those who had to make higher investments (BBD 3:1 EMB). As the investment did not result in significant operating cost and capacity advantage, the conclusion is that Airbus will not be able to charge a premium price.

The 2019 production rate for A220 is on cadence outlined in mid 2018.
Also, the production costs (6.0M to 1.7M) if assigned over sold units (624 to 168) are near equal at current sold units. If E2 were able to increase sales, then this can be an advantage but that then this is what this thread is about.
 
RalXWB
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:30 pm

How many orders were placed for each type this year? Would be a simple comparison.
 
Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:32 pm

yyztpa2 wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
In 2008 nobody expected the PW1500 in 2019 to still be immature. Any exempt observer will conclude that the CS / A220 family has been more harmed by this state of affairs than the 190/195E2. The low production cadence of these aircraft particularly affects those who had to make higher investments (BBD 3:1 EMB). As the investment did not result in significant operating cost and capacity advantage, the conclusion is that Airbus will not be able to charge a premium price.

The 2019 production rate for A220 is on cadence outlined in mid 2018.
Also, the production costs (6.0M to 1.7M) if assigned over sold units (624 to 168) are near equal at current sold units. If E2 were able to increase sales, then this can be an advantage but that then this is what this thread is about.


You are comparing sales as if they were launched together in 2008. But Embraer only launched the E2 family in 2013 and total sales will exceed 1000 units. The variable costs of the A220 are also much higher: EMB has only one (highly automated) production line, incorporates much of the E1 family experience curve and primarily employs conventional materials.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:53 pm

Is it possible that the slow delivery of engines from PW is causing Embraer to still produce the E1 version to the current extent?
 
Orlik
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:01 pm

I have some remarks :
a) sales volume is only partially related to the time on the market but also.depends on OEM ability to cope with demand. So if somebody is short of resources, it can hardly adjust production to sales , more over in case of certification or/and suply chain issues. That's why shift of the CS program under Airbus meant completely different position. Just another league.
b) A220 is bit bigger and we have to look to sales margin/ piece.
c) you mentioned 6M vers 1,7 M and you divide them per sales . Can you explain this ?
d) where come 1000 E2 sold ?
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:25 pm

yyztpa2 wrote:
Also, the production costs (6.0M) if assigned over sold units (624) are near equal at current sold units.


Your numbers are inflated ...
Orders so far for A220-100 / 300 as per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A220_orders_and_deliveries: 516

(-) 82 ordered by leasing and without customers so far;
(-) 10 for Odissey Airliners (are they still rising funds ?);
(-) 5 for Iraqi Airways (not confirmed so far if they will take this planes);
(-) 10 for Gulf Air (not confirmed so far if they will take this planes);
(-) 60 for Moxy (Neeleman still rising funds).

Now it stands at 349 ...

And people speculate a lot here for a long time what Republic Airways could do with their order for 40 A220-300.
And guess what: Airbus just removed it ...
 
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reidar76
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:30 pm

tomcat wrote:
Embraer managed to sell its civil aircraft branch for 4 billion dollars while on the other hand the commercial aircraft division of Bombardier ran out of cash thanks to the CSeries. To me, there is a clear winner.


Bombardier is selling of their aerospace business part by part. They will probably end up with around 4 billion dollars in the end. Longview bought the dash-8 program for, if I remember correctly, 250 million dollars. Mitsubishi bought the CRJ program for close to 800 million dollars, including liabilities etc. Spirit aerosystems bought Bombardiers factories in Ireland and Morocco. I think that also was around 800 million dollars. Bombardier retains the business jet business, but also a significant share of the A220 program. In a few years Bombardier can demand that Airbus buys the remaining shares at market value.
 
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reidar76
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:33 pm

I wonder if it would be a good idea for Airbus to offer engine choice on the A220, given all the problems with PW GTF. The LEAP 1b seems like a good fit, both in size, weight and thrust.
 
TObound
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:39 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
yyztpa2 wrote:
Also, the production costs (6.0M) if assigned over sold units (624) are near equal at current sold units.


Your numbers are inflated ...
Orders so far for A220-100 / 300 as per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A220_orders_and_deliveries: 516

(-) 82 ordered by leasing and without customers so far;
(-) 10 for Odissey Airliners (are they still rising funds ?);
(-) 5 for Iraqi Airways (not confirmed so far if they will take this planes);
(-) 10 for Gulf Air (not confirmed so far if they will take this planes);
(-) 60 for Moxy (Neeleman still rising funds).

Now it stands at 349 ...

And people speculate a lot here for a long time what Republic Airways could do with their order for 40 A220-300.
And guess what: Airbus just removed it ...


I can agree with most of those. But the lessors? Would you hold other programs to the same standard? Just a third of the E2 orderbook is with AerCap. With not that many placed either.

How many lessors routinely place aircraft this early?

You can play with those numbers, but it's looking entirely possible that Airbus may succeed in delivering more aircraft by the end of next year than the total orderbook of the E2.
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:31 pm

TObound wrote:
I can agree with most of those. But the lessors? Would you hold other programs to the same standard?
How many lessors routinely place aircraft this early?

As the fellow "lightsaber" answered on the topic "Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019":

lightsaber wrote:
Right now, only the E2-195:is thriving. The industry is facinated by AirCastle's quarterly reports. Every quarter they report they do not yet have a customer.
I hope Embraer picks up the sales pace or half the leased sales become at risk.


So, we can add the some concern to the A220 lessors without any customers too.

TObound wrote:
Just a third of the E2 orderbook is with AerCap. With not that many placed either.

The numbers are so far:

AirCap: 6 E195-E2 to Azul and 11 E195-E2 to KLM
ICBC: 15 E195-E2 to KLM

TObound wrote:
You can play with those numbers, but it's looking entirely possible that Airbus may succeed in delivering more aircraft by the end of next year than the total order book of the E2.

You can play with your crystal ball either ...
Unfortunately I don´t have one to play with ...

As said before here:

This is just one battle won by Airbus.
But the war is just beginning ...
 
yyztpa2
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:51 pm

Nean1 wrote:
yyztpa2 wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
In 2008 nobody expected the PW1500 in 2019 to still be immature. Any exempt observer will conclude that the CS / A220 family has been more harmed by this state of affairs than the 190/195E2. The low production cadence of these aircraft particularly affects those who had to make higher investments (BBD 3:1 EMB). As the investment did not result in significant operating cost and capacity advantage, the conclusion is that Airbus will not be able to charge a premium price.

The 2019 production rate for A220 is on cadence outlined in mid 2018.
Also, the production costs (6.0M to 1.7M) if assigned over sold units (624 to 168) are near equal at current sold units. If E2 were able to increase sales, then this can be an advantage but that then this is what this thread is about.


You are comparing sales as if they were launched together in 2008. But Embraer only launched the E2 family in 2013 and total sales will exceed 1000 units. The variable costs of the A220 are also much higher: EMB has only one (highly automated) production line, incorporates much of the E1 family experience curve and primarily employs conventional materials.

486 A220 sold since 2013. Of the 168 listed for E2, 25 are for KLM which are likely double counted with leasing company (Aercap?) so sales might only be 143 since 2013.
I won't dispute your projected volumes, but only the impact of development costs. If E2 looks for 1000, A220 needs 3000 to have roughly the same contribution per aircraft. Not to say one or other or both are probable or not, but at that point, contribution works out to an average of 2M for each.
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:43 pm

If we look at this in a mathematical sales sense:

738 E1 190&195s sold

-105 lost with B6 and AC

633 to replace left,

So if you want to get to 1000 E2s, lets call it right now you have 830 to go (Giving a generous 170 orders for E290/95).

Assume also Azul buy another 50, 780 to go... Generous again but for sake of optimistic argument...

Of the remaining E190/195 operators, Tianjin (49) and Aeromexico (47) are the biggest fleets that haven't announced renewals for 96 total. E2 needs to land both of those to have chance at 1000, if either one goes A220 (or otherwise) then the E2 will quickly run out of options to meet 1000. Aeromexico has been picking up used frames more than new as well for their existing fleet, so will they order all new to replace them, or keep buying used until there are enough used newer models to replace them? That is a big problem for the 190. The biggest competitor to the E2s at some airlines will be used E1s, which there will be plenty of on the market soon, and lease rates are already very low (an ex-AC 190 frame sitting around 112k USD/Month), it's likely some doors will not open for the E2 as a result of airlines sticking with the E1 and expanding their fleet with used frames.

So who's left realistically for large fleets:

United, American, several in China, Lufthansa... all would be head to head fights with at least the A220, if not the MAX7, COMAC, Spacejet, etc as well... if they buy 100-120 seat market aircraft at all.

So I'll say it again, the E2 sales book is looking at an steep up hill fight. There will be small orders sure, no doubt, but 1000 frames is by no means guaranteed, even 700 might be optimistic.
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Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 4:50 pm

Being frequently underestimated certainly contributed greatly to Embraer's success. On the other hand, the company has always been very concerned about the capabilities and strengths of its competitors.

From the year 2000 onwards it became clear that powerful new competitors would come, boosted by traditional companies, billionaire state subsidies and/or promise of protection in domestic markets.

Without unlawful help no competitor would have survived until 2019. The issue of EU investigation is only an additional difficulty, and the feeling that there is protectionist motivation is quite real.
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 5:04 pm

One airline that is still looking and I hope not much longer is LOT. Although at one point I hoped it would pick the now A220, it is more likely that the E2 will win out. Rumor is LOT will collect more former Azul E195s, and with current plan of Q400 leaving the fleet in 2021 which is soon approaching they need to make a choice soon. E170s were supposed to have left the fleet too. With 737Max not going to return into fleet at a fast pace LOT needs more smaller aircraft. So it’s time to get the E2 75-95 aircraft and be done with it.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK G4 F9
717 733/7/8/9/M8 744 752/3 763 788 319/20/21 332/3 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E7/95 (PA28,152)
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 5:05 pm

Nean1 wrote:

From the year 2000 onwards it became clear that powerful new competitors would come, boosted by traditional companies, billionaire state subsidies and/or promise of protection in domestic markets.

Without unlawful help no competitor would have survived until 2019. The issue of EU investigation is only an additional difficulty, and the feeling that there is protectionist motivation is quite real.


Mmhmm... EMBRAER included with ProEx financing. I really really wish you'd get off this argument, EMBRAER financing isn't any cleaner than anyone else.
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 5:47 pm

northstardc4m wrote:
Mmhmm... EMBRAER included with ProEx financing. I really really wish you'd get off this argument, EMBRAER financing isn't any cleaner than anyone else.


I realized that you dont´t know what ProEx is.
Financing is not to Embraer.

Source: http://www.camex.gov.br/financiamento-e ... coes-proex:

"The Export Financing Program (Proex) is a program of the Federal Government to support the exportation of Brazilian goods and services, enabling financing under conditions equivalent to those practiced in the international market."

And this export tool is no different from others used around the world:

USA: https://www.exim.gov/about
"The Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) is the official export credit agency of the United States. EXIM is an independent Executive Branch agency with a mission of supporting American jobs by facilitating the export of U.S. goods and services. When private sector lenders are unable or unwilling to provide financing, EXIM fills in the gap for American businesses by equipping them with the financing tools necessary to compete for global sales."

China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exim_Bank_of_China
"The Export–Import Bank of China (Chexim - China Exim Bank) is one of three institutional banks in China chartered to implement the state policies in industry, foreign trade, diplomacy, economy, and provide policy financial support so as to promote the export of Chinese products and services. Established in 1994, the bank is subordinated to the State Council."

India: https://www.eximbankindia.in/Our objectives include
"Our objectives include providing financial assistance to exporters and importers, and ... functioning as the principal financial institution for coordinating the working of institutions engaged in financing export and import of goods and services with a view to promoting the country's international trade."
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 6:27 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
northstardc4m wrote:
Mmhmm... EMBRAER included with ProEx financing. I really really wish you'd get off this argument, EMBRAER financing isn't any cleaner than anyone else.


I realized that you dont´t know what ProEx is.
Financing is not to Embraer.

Source: http://www.camex.gov.br/financiamento-e ... coes-proex:

"The Export Financing Program (Proex) is a program of the Federal Government to support the exportation of Brazilian goods and services, enabling financing under conditions equivalent to those practiced in the international market."

And this export tool is no different from others used around the world:

USA: https://www.exim.gov/about
"The Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) is the official export credit agency of the United States. EXIM is an independent Executive Branch agency with a mission of supporting American jobs by facilitating the export of U.S. goods and services. When private sector lenders are unable or unwilling to provide financing, EXIM fills in the gap for American businesses by equipping them with the financing tools necessary to compete for global sales."

China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exim_Bank_of_China
"The Export–Import Bank of China (Chexim - China Exim Bank) is one of three institutional banks in China chartered to implement the state policies in industry, foreign trade, diplomacy, economy, and provide policy financial support so as to promote the export of Chinese products and services. Established in 1994, the bank is subordinated to the State Council."

India: https://www.eximbankindia.in/Our objectives include
"Our objectives include providing financial assistance to exporters and importers, and ... functioning as the principal financial institution for coordinating the working of institutions engaged in financing export and import of goods and services with a view to promoting the country's international trade."
Nice try

But it is an export subsidy that got caught specifically in non compliance by the WTO in regards to the benefit of EMBRAER under ds46 between 1994 and 2000, and subsequent non compliance judgement 1 year later under same.

I'm well well aware of what it all means and I'm well aware of the rulings all sides in the matter and that Brazil is literally sitting on the line of legallity on ProEx (3rd version) with the WTO and needs to be very cautious.

Trying to equate it to other flawed development support funds is also a bad idea with the EXIM, Canadian development Corp, the Asian development bank, and a whole litanny of others have crossed the line as well.



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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 6:42 pm

northstardc4m wrote:
Nice try
But it is an export subsidy that got caught specifically in non compliance by the WTO in regards to the benefit of EMBRAER under ds46 between 1994 and 2000, and subsequent non compliance judgement 1 year later under same.
I'm well well aware of what it all means and I'm well aware of the rulings all sides in the matter and that Brazil is literally sitting on the line of legallity on ProEx (3rd version) with the WTO and needs to be very cautious.
Trying to equate it to other flawed development support funds is also a bad idea with the EXIM, Canadian development Corp, the Asian development bank, and a whole litanny of others have crossed the line as well.


Not simple as that ...

Full history:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardie ... ontroversy

and ...

Source: https://embraer.com/global/en/news?slug ... e-de-proex

"São José dos Campos, Brazil, August 23, 2001 – The Dispute Settlement Body of the WTO adopted today the Panel’s decision that PROEX is in full conformity with WTO rules. No more appeals can be filed.
“Embraer welcomes this adoption that puts an end on the discussion about PROEX’s compliance to WTO rules. It’s a major accomplishment of the Brazilian diplomacy. We are fully convinced that after that adoption there will be no more Canadian interpretations claiming victory.”, said Henrique Rzezinski, Embraer’s Vice President for External Relations.
PROEX is legal and is not restricted to a 10 year financing term.
The Panel found that under PROEX Brazil does not confer a “benefit” on any party, since it is limited to providing what the market offers. Therefore the Panel concluded there is no subsidy. If there is no subsidy, OECD limitation do not apply.
Financing will continue to be offered at market conditions, where 15-plus years terms are commonly available.
This decision confirms what Brazil and Embraer have been saying all along, that PROEX is a perfectly legal measure that does nothing more than partially level the playing field for companies in developing countries who compete with companies in developed countries.
Another WTO panel is reviewing Brazil’s challenge to Canada’s subsidies to its aircraft industry. That ruling is expected to be made public in early October. Embraer is confident that Canadian programs, as written and applied, violates WTO rules."
 
SEU
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 6:53 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
yyztpa2 wrote:
Also, the production costs (6.0M) if assigned over sold units (624) are near equal at current sold units.


Your numbers are inflated ...
Orders so far for A220-100 / 300 as per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A220_orders_and_deliveries: 516

(-) 82 ordered by leasing and without customers so far;
(-) 10 for Odissey Airliners (are they still rising funds ?);
(-) 5 for Iraqi Airways (not confirmed so far if they will take this planes);
(-) 10 for Gulf Air (not confirmed so far if they will take this planes);
(-) 60 for Moxy (Neeleman still rising funds).

Now it stands at 349 ...

And people speculate a lot here for a long time what Republic Airways could do with their order for 40 A220-300.
And guess what: Airbus just removed it ...



You cannot say one thing without reflecting on all of it.

Lets take out the E2 leasing company orders:

Aer caps 50, Aircastle 25 and Chinese lessors 10
- E2 has 85 orders left.
Then take out Air peace whose CEO just got arrested for fraud and money laundering
- E2 has 75 orders left

Then you look at the longevity of the airlines whose ordering each A220/E2.....
- A220 has Delta, Air Canada, Air france (Dare you to try and say its not firm yet) Swiss, Korean air, Jetblue, Egypt Air etc, all massive airlines, building the worldwide support base for the parts, and able to top up orders etc.

The E2 has KLM of any note, and Azul maybe, the rest are very small orders i.e Binter etc.

Then you have to agree, A220-500, already being touted by Air france and others and very well could be around the corner, then you have a family of planes that the E2 doesnt come close to nor can it expand to compete.

That being said - I believe the E2 is more of a regional jet, the A220 is a mainline Jet and people need to stop comparing the two.
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:04 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
northstardc4m wrote:
Nice try
But it is an export subsidy that got caught specifically in non compliance by the WTO in regards to the benefit of EMBRAER under ds46 between 1994 and 2000, and subsequent non compliance judgement 1 year later under same.
I'm well well aware of what it all means and I'm well aware of the rulings all sides in the matter and that Brazil is literally sitting on the line of legallity on ProEx (3rd version) with the WTO and needs to be very cautious.
Trying to equate it to other flawed development support funds is also a bad idea with the EXIM, Canadian development Corp, the Asian development bank, and a whole litanny of others have crossed the line as well.


Not simple as that ...

Full history:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardie ... ontroversy



Really? You say it not that simple then link to a wiki article??? And also are you trying to say that because both sides did it EMBRAER is clean? cause no...

I never said it was simple, I said it was a judgement, and it was, and it was found not in compliance again at the second hearing a year later.

In the end though, it boils down to: ProEx II was found to be in violation of the SCM as of November 18 1999, and that modifications of aid financing packages into ProEx III made the absolute minimal changes needed and that the WTO appellate body strongly recommended to Brazil that further changes be implemented. Also findings that financing to an estimated 191 EMBRAER aircraft may of been impacted, unfairly advantaging EMBRAER, and that Brazil reached an agreement to avoid open tariffs with Canada over the issue.

Brazil did it, Canada did it, EU did it, US did it... look at it the way my instructor used to put it very aptly: "if you step into international finance, your feet will smell of shit"... it's all dirty, and all much worse than the few cases that actually get to tribunals at the WTO or elsewhere... forget pretending that anyone selling large expensive items with international financial agreements won't run afoul of something somewhere, it is literally impossible if you want to keep your companies in business and keep your national economy from being overrun. It's hypocrisy of the highest order, but welcome to world trade.
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lightsaber
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:54 pm

What is the total list of possible future customers?
AeroMexico
Turkish
LOT
Qantas
TAP Portugal
IAG


Then possible, but might skip the size
Bangkok Airlines
NAM Air
LEO Airlines
AF regional?

Did I miss any current campaigns?

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northstardc4m
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
What is the total list of possible future customers?
AeroMexico
Turkish
LOT
Qantas
TAP Portugal
IAG


Then possible, but might skip the size
Bangkok Airlines
NAM Air
LEO Airlines
AF regional?

Did I miss any current campaigns?

Lightsaber


Well they SHOULD be pitching to a few in China like i said above Tianjin, which is the largest fleet remaining of E190/195s to be claimed, but I think that about covers it outside China anyways.
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:33 pm

SEU wrote:
That being said - I believe the E2 is more of a regional jet, the A220 is a mainline Jet and people need to stop comparing the two.


This. It's getting more and more apparent that the market is seeing the E2 as an RJ and the 220 as a mainline offering, with overlap in the 120-130 seat capacity category between the E2-195 and the A220-100. Increasingly, it doesn't look like the 223 competes at all with the E2-195. Doesn't seem to look like many carriers are actually cross shopping them. They seem to be either comparing the 223 to the Max 7 or 319N or even as part of a broader solution replacing 738s and 320s. See what B6 did pairing the 223 with the 321N.
 
TObound
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Did I miss any current campaigns?

Lightsaber


LH Group for Cityline, Austrian, Air Dolomiti and Brussels Airlines. At some point, LH Group will have to consider the replacement of CRJs, E1s and Q400s at those carriers. And they are well positioned to leverage that into a large and well discounted order. If they aren't talking to Embraer and Airbus, I'd be surprised.

I'd argue that Finnair, CityJet, and Flybe/Virgin Connect are also possible contenders.

How many of those turn into active campaigns in the next 3 years remains to be seen. I definitely think the carriers I've listed here, pull the trigger by 2025.
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:01 pm

The lease situation won't be better understood until after the next summer airshow, Farnborough 2020.

TObound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Did I miss any current campaigns?

Lightsaber


LH Group for Cityline, Austrian, Air Dolomiti and Brussels Airlines. At some point, LH Group will have to consider the replacement of CRJs, E1s and Q400s at those carriers. And they are well positioned to leverage that into a large and well discounted order. If they aren't talking to Embraer and Airbus, I'd be surprised.

I'd argue that Finnair, CityJet, and Flybe/Virgin Connect are also possible contenders.

How many of those turn into active campaigns in the next 3 years remains to be seen. I definitely think the carriers I've listed here, pull the trigger by 2025.

While I agree with your list of future possible campaigns, Including Tianjin, I was looking into active campaigns we might, or might not, hear a press release within 6 months. I've personally compiled a huge list of future possible E2/A220/MRJ buyers.

What is pertinent to this thread is the campaigns leading up to the Farnborough 2020.

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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Bingo1 wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
The title of this topic is quite premature, even ridiculous. The CS100 / 300 now has a fully comparable performance competitor whose production costs (fixed and variable) are much lower. The presence of the B737Max above and the E195E2 below makes sales of the A220 uneconomical as it will not be able to charge an amount compatible with its production cost. With the purchase of 80% of Embraer Comercial by Boeing, the possibility of strangling competition via dumping was ruled out. So Airbus needs all the help that EU can provide.


Ok why isn't the E195E2 selling then? Why are many former large E190/195 operators switching their entire E1 fleets over to the "baby Airbus" and not even waiting to see what Boeing can do at Embraer? I'm not saying that your claims aren't valid but if they were should we not see more orders for the E2? And, at minimum, should we not see much more loyalty from former E1 customers? Most, if not all, airlines will not switch to an all new plane type from a different company unless there are very compelling reasons to do so.


Agreed. The 175 has been a barn burner, 190 pretty good. 195? Not so much. Right now though, scope is killing the 175-E2. The airlines need to fix that. Planes are getting heavier and it makes no sense for mainline to fly 76-seaters which in turn chokes off pilot development at the regional level.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:07 am

DL717 wrote:
Bingo1 wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
The title of this topic is quite premature, even ridiculous. The CS100 / 300 now has a fully comparable performance competitor whose production costs (fixed and variable) are much lower. The presence of the B737Max above and the E195E2 below makes sales of the A220 uneconomical as it will not be able to charge an amount compatible with its production cost. With the purchase of 80% of Embraer Comercial by Boeing, the possibility of strangling competition via dumping was ruled out. So Airbus needs all the help that EU can provide.


Ok why isn't the E195E2 selling then? Why are many former large E190/195 operators switching their entire E1 fleets over to the "baby Airbus" and not even waiting to see what Boeing can do at Embraer? I'm not saying that your claims aren't valid but if they were should we not see more orders for the E2? And, at minimum, should we not see much more loyalty from former E1 customers? Most, if not all, airlines will not switch to an all new plane type from a different company unless there are very compelling reasons to do so.


Agreed. The 175 has been a barn burner, 190 pretty good. 195? Not so much. Right now though, scope is killing the 175-E2. The airlines need to fix that. Planes are getting heavier and it makes no sense for mainline to fly 76-seaters which in turn chokes off pilot development at the regional level.

Pilots want less regional flying. The airlines are unlikely to fix this if the M100 meets promise.

The weight is engines (higher pressure ratio engines are heavier) and more efficient subsystems.

Would pilots want the MR9 flying regional? You are asking to open Pandora's box. I'm in favor of a different cost structure for regional flying (mostly on the non-pilit side) as regionals need different rules. For example, I've taken regional flights were the counter people also worked bags, f/a and co-pilot helped passengers board and only the pilot kept to traditional job definition.

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