Good luck Air Peace, ops, Green Africa
You’d be singing a very different tune if they’d ordered E2s.
No, I wouldn´t ... I saw this happening many times before to Embraer regarding startups ... mainly from Africa countries ... and I know how it ended up.
Anyway, good luck to them ...
And, just to reminder ...
December 23, 2018"Based in Lagos, the startup aims to operate as a value airline. The airline already has a full complement of senior staff. Additionally, they have just passed a deal worth US$11.7 billion with Boeing. Surprisingly for a startup airline, this marks Africa’s largest aircraft agreement. In total, the deal sees the startup ordering 100 B737-MAX8 aircraft."
and then ...
February 13, 2020"Nigerian carrier Green Africa Airways has tentatively agreed to acquire 50 Airbus A220-300s, a potentially strong order for the twinjets."
I agree this order has risk. But it is an order. There were airlines I outright mocked the order and now they fly hundreds of aircraft. Most African startups will struggle, but a few will thrive.
But let us put it into perspective:
We're debating an 7.5% increase in orders for the A220
For the E2, the same aircraft quantity would be a 26% increase if I use wikipedia's numbers (which seem off as I see a double counting of the KLM order which are all leases):https://embraer.com/global/en/news?slug ... r-aircrafthttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E-Jet_E2_family
The A220 remains viable without this order. Airbus has sales campaigns ongoing with Qantas and other airlines. ALC will be selling at Farnborough.
I will note there is a separate thread for A220 sales campaigns.viewtopic.php?t=1438987
Orders from new airlines for A220 in 2019:
Only firmed 2020 order
I thought Air Peace signed for the E2 (Qty 10):https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... th-in-2020
I do not worry about an aircraft that adds 7 customers, plus good leasing volume, in 13 months.
I do worry about an aircraft that has fewer than 20 airlines flying the type:
I count 19 firm airlines for the A220, does anyone have a better list as I probably missed leased examples?
I count 7 firm airlines for the E2, did I miss any?
The E2 'volume' (20+ aircraft to be operated) airlines are:
The A220 'volume' airlines are:
LH Group (Swiss)
We debate the order for 50 from an African airline, not yet confirmed.
To stay in the race, both need more volume airlines.
What we care about are competitions between the two for:
2. TAP Portugal (I consider that Embraer must will either AeroMexico or TAP or their sales efforts will struggle even more)
3. Royal Jordanian (is this sales campaign still active?) https://aviationanalyst.co.uk/2019/06/0 ... mbraer-e2/
4. IAG (in particular, for LCY)
5. Air Niugini see: https://postcourier.com.pg/airbus-a220- ... t-moresby/
7. Interjet (for last two, see here, although I disagree with the bias of the link as a deal isn't done until it is signed: https://www.airway1.com/airbus-may-clos ... -interjet/
Err... no surprise there are no Asian airlines I can think of, at this time.
Of course, whomever wins HA will light off a.net, but that order is years away: https://thepointsguy.com/news/hawaiian- ... 717-fleet/
"When Hawaiian does retire those Boeings, industry watchers said the airline will likely replace it with the Airbus A220, though the Embraer E-Jet E2 is also an option."
Note: I would think the MRJ-90 would also be considered, but low probability.
With Embraer able to deliver aircraft late in the year for top off orders (E-175s), it is obvious their backlog is an issue: https://www.flightglobal.com/orders-and ... 64.article
I wish them luck. They need the merger with Boeing to help sales. But will that be enough?
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