TObound
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:56 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
TObound wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
I'm not sure why AF or LH would love a 150-160 seat A225, except as an A319 replacement (which is of course entirely possible especially for Air France). Their A320s use the Eurobusiness layout, with standard seats throughout and middle seats left unsold in rows allocated for business class. The number of seats allocated to business class varies from flight to flight, even on the same aircraft. If used in all-economy mode they seat between 174 and 180, quite a bit of a downgauge to change to A225. Same applies to IAG, really.


Ummmm AF plans to fit 149 seats to the 223. LX fits 145 seats to their 223s today. And those numbers are with Eurobusiness.


Yes and no. LX fits 145 seats, but of the 30 seats "Eurobusiness" 12 are unoccupied when used as J. So with Eurobusiness it's only 133 seats plus 12 unoccupied.

Best regards
Thomas


You're missing the context of the discussion. Read the post I was responding to.
 
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scbriml
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:14 pm

In the spirit of not underestimating the E2, Embraer's 3Q numbers make pretty sobering reading.

They delivered just two E2 - 1 x E190 & 1 x E195 during 3Q. That takes YTD E2 deliveries to just four. In the same nine months Airbus delivered a total of 37 A220s (24 x 100 & 13 x 300).

In total, Embraer has delivered just eight E2s since deliveries started 18 months ago! The only E2 order to the end of Q3 is one for 10 x E195 for Air Peace of Nigeria (how solid is that?). KLM's 'order' for 21 will be taken from existing lessors backlogs, so no additional sales there.

There's something troubling about those numbers.
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Revelation
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:26 pm

Sokes wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
The Lear 85 was a ICT product, near zero to do with the C-Series.

What is an ICT product?

Specifically:

Wichita Dwight D. Eisenhower National Airport (IATA: ICT, ICAO: KICT, FAA LID: ICT) is a commercial airport 7 miles (11 km) west of downtown Wichita, Kansas. It is the largest and busiest airport in the state of Kansas. ICT covers 3,248 acres (1,314 ha).[2]

The airport is referred to as Eisenhower National Airport or by its former name Mid-Continent Airport. The airport's airport code, ICT, is also a nickname for the city.
...
The airport is the site of the Cessna headquarters and main manufacturing plant,[6] as well as a Bombardier service center for Learjet and other business jet aircraft.[7]

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wichita_D ... al_Airport

A quirk of US airport codes is that at one point W/K/N were interchangeable prefixes in the US so ICT started out as WICT but at one point names were rationalized and it ended up with KICT in ICAO speak and ICT in IATA speak. My home airport is ASH/KASH which doesn't make much sense till you realize it started out as NASH.
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Jungleneer
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:56 pm

scbriml wrote:
In the spirit of not underestimating the E2, Embraer's 3Q numbers make pretty sobering reading.

They delivered just two E2 - 1 x E190 & 1 x E195 during 3Q. That takes YTD E2 deliveries to just four. In the same nine months Airbus delivered a total of 37 A220s (24 x 100 & 13 x 300).

In total, Embraer has delivered just eight E2s since deliveries started 18 months ago! The only E2 order to the end of Q3 is one for 10 x E195 for Air Peace of Nigeria (how solid is that?). KLM's 'order' for 21 will be taken from existing lessors backlogs, so no additional sales there.

There's something troubling about those numbers.


How many deliveries did Bombarider manage to achieve in the first and second years following CSeries certification?
 
rrbsztk
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:13 pm

Jungleneer wrote:
scbriml wrote:
In the spirit of not underestimating the E2, Embraer's 3Q numbers make pretty sobering reading.

They delivered just two E2 - 1 x E190 & 1 x E195 during 3Q. That takes YTD E2 deliveries to just four. In the same nine months Airbus delivered a total of 37 A220s (24 x 100 & 13 x 300).

In total, Embraer has delivered just eight E2s since deliveries started 18 months ago! The only E2 order to the end of Q3 is one for 10 x E195 for Air Peace of Nigeria (how solid is that?). KLM's 'order' for 21 will be taken from existing lessors backlogs, so no additional sales there.

There's something troubling about those numbers.


How many deliveries did Bombarider manage to achieve in the first and second years following CSeries certification?


7 in 2016 (byQuarter 0,1,1,5)
17 in 2017 (2,5,4,6)
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:53 pm

scbriml wrote:
In the spirit of not underestimating the E2, Embraer's 3Q numbers make pretty sobering reading.

They delivered just two E2 - 1 x E190 & 1 x E195 during 3Q. That takes YTD E2 deliveries to just four. In the same nine months Airbus delivered a total of 37 A220s (24 x 100 & 13 x 300).

In total, Embraer has delivered just eight E2s since deliveries started 18 months ago! The only E2 order to the end of Q3 is one for 10 x E195 for Air Peace of Nigeria (how solid is that?). KLM's 'order' for 21 will be taken from existing lessors backlogs, so no additional sales there.

There's something troubling about those numbers.



This:
Source: https://aviationweek.com/crossover-narr ... -e2-family

Excerpt:
"Final assembly of the E-Jets will remain spread across several hangars, but processes are changing in almost all of them.

Engines and cabin interiors are installed in the F220 building in Sao Jose dos Campos, which has been completely redone for the hybrid line. As the E2 is introduced, a dedicated station for the new version will be retained for the first four to six customer aircraft in a phased approach to making the full line hybrid and so as not to disrupt the faster workflow on the E1s. In a second phase, one of the stations will be used in hybrid fashion for both the E1 and E2 to segregate risk in case any delays occur. In phase three, both E-Jet generations will be outfitted at all stations."


Deliveries due in 4Q2019:

- 1 E190-E2 to Air Astana (already delivered on November 2nd);
- 4 E195-E2 to Azul;
- 2 E195-E2 to Binter Canarias;
- 2 E190-E2 to Helvetic;
- 1 E190-E2 to Air Kiribati.
 
Skywatcher
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:48 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
scbriml wrote:
In the spirit of not underestimating the E2, Embraer's 3Q numbers make pretty sobering reading.

They delivered just two E2 - 1 x E190 & 1 x E195 during 3Q. That takes YTD E2 deliveries to just four. In the same nine months Airbus delivered a total of 37 A220s (24 x 100 & 13 x 300).

In total, Embraer has delivered just eight E2s since deliveries started 18 months ago! The only E2 order to the end of Q3 is one for 10 x E195 for Air Peace of Nigeria (how solid is that?). KLM's 'order' for 21 will be taken from existing lessors backlogs, so no additional sales there.

There's something troubling about those numbers.



This:
Source: https://aviationweek.com/crossover-narr ... -e2-family

Excerpt:
"Final assembly of the E-Jets will remain spread across several hangars, but processes are changing in almost all of them.

Engines and cabin interiors are installed in the F220 building in Sao Jose dos Campos, which has been completely redone for the hybrid line. As the E2 is introduced, a dedicated station for the new version will be retained for the first four to six customer aircraft in a phased approach to making the full line hybrid and so as not to disrupt the faster workflow on the E1s. In a second phase, one of the stations will be used in hybrid fashion for both the E1 and E2 to segregate risk in case any delays occur. In phase three, both E-Jet generations will be outfitted at all stations."


Deliveries due in 4Q2019:

- 1 E190-E2 to Air Astana (already delivered on November 2nd);
- 4 E195-E2 to Azul;
- 2 E195-E2 to Binter Canarias;
- 2 E190-E2 to Helvetic;
- 1 E190-E2 to Air Kiribati.


Does this mean that only 1 (Air Astana) has been delivered so far in Q-4? If the quarter is Oct.1 to Dec.31 then it is already half over.
If these statements are correct they had better get moving to deliver the other 9 in the remaining 6 weeks.
 
TObound
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:28 am

tphuang wrote:
TObound wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If A220-500 was available, B6 would order it in a heartbeat. The gap between A220-300 and A321N is too large. I suspect Moxy would order it too. I'm not sure about DL since they have many types that can already fill that role.


Would JetBlue actually jump on the 225 if it puts them beyond 150 seats? I always get the sense that they reluctantly went to 162 seats on their A320s, pushed by investors. Even 140 seats in the 223s seems a tad tight for B6.

I expect DL to order the 225. Pairs fantastically with the 321N and/or Boeing's MOM/797.


I was a little surprised that they fit 140 eats on 220-300. But then again, AirBaltic managed to fit 145 seats with 31 rows of seating. So 28 rows seems to be plenty of space. Not sure how many rows A220-500 will have, but 162 to 170 seat version would be very attractive for B6. Would be the perfect replacement for their reconfigured A320. I guess maybe they will have to do with fewer EMS rows?


The proportion of EMS seats seems low compared to the 320 and 321. And the pitch in economy still seems a tad low. Curious to see how B6 customers react.
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:51 am

EMBSPBR wrote:
scbriml wrote:
In the spirit of not underestimating the E2, Embraer's 3Q numbers make pretty sobering reading.

They delivered just two E2 - 1 x E190 & 1 x E195 during 3Q. That takes YTD E2 deliveries to just four. In the same nine months Airbus delivered a total of 37 A220s (24 x 100 & 13 x 300).

In total, Embraer has delivered just eight E2s since deliveries started 18 months ago! The only E2 order to the end of Q3 is one for 10 x E195 for Air Peace of Nigeria (how solid is that?). KLM's 'order' for 21 will be taken from existing lessors backlogs, so no additional sales there.

There's something troubling about those numbers.



This:
Source: https://aviationweek.com/crossover-narr ... -e2-family

Excerpt:
"Final assembly of the E-Jets will remain spread across several hangars, but processes are changing in almost all of them.

Engines and cabin interiors are installed in the F220 building in Sao Jose dos Campos, which has been completely redone for the hybrid line. As the E2 is introduced, a dedicated station for the new version will be retained for the first four to six customer aircraft in a phased approach to making the full line hybrid and so as not to disrupt the faster workflow on the E1s. In a second phase, one of the stations will be used in hybrid fashion for both the E1 and E2 to segregate risk in case any delays occur. In phase three, both E-Jet generations will be outfitted at all stations."


Deliveries due in 4Q2019:

- 1 E190-E2 to Air Astana (already delivered on November 2nd);
- 4 E195-E2 to Azul;
- 2 E195-E2 to Binter Canarias;
- 2 E190-E2 to Helvetic;
- 1 E190-E2 to Air Kiribati.


I think the best way to consider E2 very slow production production ramp(up is to compare it against its plan.

Embraer is still producing the previous version of the E190 and E195 and E2 is using the same final assembly line. They have alway planned a very slow ramp-up. Mostly due to the small number of orders so far and obviously because they need to finish the E1 production. I do not know how many E1 are still in the backlog.

Let us not forget the E2 was launched in 2013 or five years later than C Series launch. The C Series program has missed its delivery target three years in a row. This year may be the first time they meet the delivery target. As you know the target for 2019 is 45 aircraft.

There is an advantage being second in this very specific situation where the engine hardware is virtually identical between the E19x-E2 and the C Series. Despite the long development of the engines, it is not yet stabilized and there are still many issues. When the 2E will have to ramp up in 2020 and 2021, most probably the aircraft will have the latest build-standard with the latest corrections implemented.

It really is important to note that the launch of E2 was in 2013 or FIVE years after the C Series launch. The E2 has been on schedule so far. That's important in the sense that the budget is build according to the schedule, including the production plan. So far Embraer has not deviated too far away from the plan.

Unfortunately (or is it fortunately?) the plan changed last year with the announcement of the joint venture with Boeing. It is curious and strange the European Union now becomes concerned by the the joint venture when they approved the take-over of the C Series program by Airbus more than six months early. There is obviously a worry that the E2 can be very strong in the market, otherwise there would be not objection whatsoever from the European Union.
 
tommy1808
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:02 am

TObound wrote:
tphuang wrote:
TObound wrote:

Would JetBlue actually jump on the 225 if it puts them beyond 150 seats? I always get the sense that they reluctantly went to 162 seats on their A320s, pushed by investors. Even 140 seats in the 223s seems a tad tight for B6.

I expect DL to order the 225. Pairs fantastically with the 321N and/or Boeing's MOM/797.


I was a little surprised that they fit 140 eats on 220-300. But then again, AirBaltic managed to fit 145 seats with 31 rows of seating. So 28 rows seems to be plenty of space. Not sure how many rows A220-500 will have, but 162 to 170 seat version would be very attractive for B6. Would be the perfect replacement for their reconfigured A320. I guess maybe they will have to do with fewer EMS rows?


The proportion of EMS seats seems low compared to the 320 and 321. And the pitch in economy still seems a tad low. Curious to see how B6 customers react.


If they keep 39" in EMS and do 5 rows of it the rest of the cabin can be 30", with 4 rows the rest of the Cabin can be 31".

tphuang wrote:
irBaltic managed to fit 145 seats with 31 rows of seating


30, row 13 is missing.

best regards
Thomas

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Bingo1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:32 pm

VV wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
scbriml wrote:
In the spirit of not underestimating the E2, Embraer's 3Q numbers make pretty sobering reading.

They delivered just two E2 - 1 x E190 & 1 x E195 during 3Q. That takes YTD E2 deliveries to just four. In the same nine months Airbus delivered a total of 37 A220s (24 x 100 & 13 x 300).

In total, Embraer has delivered just eight E2s since deliveries started 18 months ago! The only E2 order to the end of Q3 is one for 10 x E195 for Air Peace of Nigeria (how solid is that?). KLM's 'order' for 21 will be taken from existing lessors backlogs, so no additional sales there.

There's something troubling about those numbers.



This:
Source: https://aviationweek.com/crossover-narr ... -e2-family

Excerpt:
"Final assembly of the E-Jets will remain spread across several hangars, but processes are changing in almost all of them.

Engines and cabin interiors are installed in the F220 building in Sao Jose dos Campos, which has been completely redone for the hybrid line. As the E2 is introduced, a dedicated station for the new version will be retained for the first four to six customer aircraft in a phased approach to making the full line hybrid and so as not to disrupt the faster workflow on the E1s. In a second phase, one of the stations will be used in hybrid fashion for both the E1 and E2 to segregate risk in case any delays occur. In phase three, both E-Jet generations will be outfitted at all stations."


Deliveries due in 4Q2019:

- 1 E190-E2 to Air Astana (already delivered on November 2nd);
- 4 E195-E2 to Azul;
- 2 E195-E2 to Binter Canarias;
- 2 E190-E2 to Helvetic;
- 1 E190-E2 to Air Kiribati.


I think the best way to consider E2 very slow production production ramp(up is to compare it against its plan.

Embraer is still producing the previous version of the E190 and E195 and E2 is using the same final assembly line. They have alway planned a very slow ramp-up. Mostly due to the small number of orders so far and obviously because they need to finish the E1 production. I do not know how many E1 are still in the backlog.

Let us not forget the E2 was launched in 2013 or five years later than C Series launch. The C Series program has missed its delivery target three years in a row. This year may be the first time they meet the delivery target. As you know the target for 2019 is 45 aircraft.

There is an advantage being second in this very specific situation where the engine hardware is virtually identical between the E19x-E2 and the C Series. Despite the long development of the engines, it is not yet stabilized and there are still many issues. When the 2E will have to ramp up in 2020 and 2021, most probably the aircraft will have the latest build-standard with the latest corrections implemented.

It really is important to note that the launch of E2 was in 2013 or FIVE years after the C Series launch. The E2 has been on schedule so far. That's important in the sense that the budget is build according to the schedule, including the production plan. So far Embraer has not deviated too far away from the plan.

Unfortunately (or is it fortunately?) the plan changed last year with the announcement of the joint venture with Boeing. It is curious and strange the European Union now becomes concerned by the the joint venture when they approved the take-over of the C Series program by Airbus more than six months early. There is obviously a worry that the E2 can be very strong in the market, otherwise there would be not objection whatsoever from the European Union.


That is a quite a spin on the positivity of next to no orders. You do realize that if Embraer wants to stay in business they will need to sell airplanes, right? It is admirable that Embraer is able to keep their projects on time and on budget but if they can't sell they have no future. Transversely, any company that is late and over budget but has sales stands at least a solid chance of survival.
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Naincompetent
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:37 pm

VV wrote:
It is curious and strange the European Union now becomes concerned by the the joint venture when they approved the take-over of the C Series program by Airbus more than six months early. There is obviously a worry that the E2 can be very strong in the market, otherwise there would be not objection whatsoever from the European Union.


There is absolutely nothing curious here.
A reduction of the market from 4 to 3 players does not have the same impact as a reduction from 3 to 2 players.
It is just a timing issue
 
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spinotter
Posts: 713
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
Sokes wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
The Lear 85 was a ICT product, near zero to do with the C-Series.

What is an ICT product?

Specifically:

Wichita Dwight D. Eisenhower National Airport (IATA: ICT, ICAO: KICT, FAA LID: ICT) is a commercial airport 7 miles (11 km) west of downtown Wichita, Kansas. It is the largest and busiest airport in the state of Kansas. ICT covers 3,248 acres (1,314 ha).[2]

The airport is referred to as Eisenhower National Airport or by its former name Mid-Continent Airport. The airport's airport code, ICT, is also a nickname for the city.
...
The airport is the site of the Cessna headquarters and main manufacturing plant,[6] as well as a Bombardier service center for Learjet and other business jet aircraft.[7]

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wichita_D ... al_Airport

A quirk of US airport codes is that at one point W/K/N were interchangeable prefixes in the US so ICT started out as WICT but at one point names were rationalized and it ended up with KICT in ICAO speak and ICT in IATA speak. My home airport is ASH/KASH which doesn't make much sense till you realize it started out as NASH.


K and W were radio stations and N were navy stations, right? So we have BNA for Nashville, ORF for Norfolk, MSY for New Orleans, MCI for Kansas City, DCA for Washington DC, and so on. Every Canadian airport code begins with the letter Y. And so on.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:52 pm

spinotter wrote:
K and W were radio stations and N were navy stations, right?

I'm not sure what the rules were.

From what I have read ASH/KASH/NASH has no Navy background so the pattern does not hold for it.

In amateur ("ham") radio the US still uses K/W/N and even some A initial letters.

As you say TV/radio broadcast stations in the US have W east of the Mississippi and K west of the Mississippi with some exceptions.
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tommy1808
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:16 pm

Naincompetent wrote:
VV wrote:
It is curious and strange the European Union now becomes concerned by the the joint venture when they approved the take-over of the C Series program by Airbus more than six months early. There is obviously a worry that the E2 can be very strong in the market, otherwise there would be not objection whatsoever from the European Union.


There is absolutely nothing curious here.
A reduction of the market from 4 to 3 players does not have the same impact as a reduction from 3 to 2 players.
It is just a timing issue


Espechially considering that the former was: the markets No. 2 taking over one, effectively zero marketshare, product from No. 4, while the other merger is No. 1 with all of No. 3, that also happens to dominate its market...

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Sokes
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:58 pm

scbriml wrote:
In the spirit of not underestimating the E2, Embraer's 3Q numbers make pretty sobering reading.



While I agree with you that orders are worrying, I don't think deliveries are worrying. There are still E1s produced. I assume if PW's geared engines had to work properly, more would be produced. Why to switch production to an engine type that still has teething troubles? Maybe customers themselves requested later deliveries? Or PW?

The E1 has more maintenance requirements. Maybe airlines keen on the E2 stay in a wait position for another two or three years to see how are the maintenance requirements of the new type. It's not like they have to rush with orders to get early delivery slots.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:06 pm

Bingo1 wrote:
...
That is a quite a spin on the positivity of next to no orders. You do realize that if Embraer wants to stay in business they will need to sell airplanes, right? It is admirable that Embraer is able to keep their projects on time and on budget but if they can't sell they have no future. Transversely, any company that is late and over budget but has sales stands at least a solid chance of survival.


I hope you are well aware that Embraer is still delivering commercial aircraft today, especially the E175 and a smal number of the previous generation E190 and E195. It is at delivery when the bulk of income comes in.

So I just do not understand your comment about selling aircraft. Yes, Embraer does sell aircraft and more importantly they still deliver commercial aircraft in addition to their business aircraft and the military ones.

What the heck are you talking about.

Now, on the E190-E2 and E195-E2 there are not so many orders, but they are ramping it up very slowly. As far as orders are concerned, I do not think they need to "panic". I would panic more if I have to change engine three or three times for each aircraft during the first year of operation like AirBaltic did. Some airlines are doing it too, like Swiss.

Seriously, Embraer has an advantage being second to enter into service. In addition let us never forget that the E2 was launched FIVE damn long years after the launch of the C Series.

In my opinion they are doing pretty well so far by maintaining the development expenses close to the prediction.


I sincerely believe it is not very productive to under estimate the E190-E2 and especially the E195-E2. THere is not an urgency so far. I believe the assault in term or order can start only once the deal with Boeing will close.

When will it close? We do not know for sure yet. The investigation by the European Union is still on going. It seems the EU's approval would not be achieved before march 2020.

Now, I do not understand AT ALL why the European Union is so worried by an aircraft that does not have many orders. THis is completely absurd. Really absurd. Do they see a potential of the E2 more than you guys here see it? If it is not the case then why the hell are they holding up such a joint-venture.

And yes, Boeing will spend 4.2 billion dollars to acquire 80% of Embraer commercial aircraft, but it would not make any damn sense if there is no potential for their aircraft program, right?

I know that it is more expensive than one symbolic dollar to acquire a 50% of the C Series program. Well yes, probably it is because the C Series has such a huge potential.
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:06 pm

Naincompetent wrote:
VV wrote:
It is curious and strange the European Union now becomes concerned by the the joint venture when they approved the take-over of the C Series program by Airbus more than six months early. There is obviously a worry that the E2 can be very strong in the market, otherwise there would be not objection whatsoever from the European Union.


There is absolutely nothing curious here.
A reduction of the market from 4 to 3 players does not have the same impact as a reduction from 3 to 2 players.
It is just a timing issue


Yes, it is timing issue and it could well trigger a strange situation where someone file a complaint such that Airbus releases the C Series program if the joint-venture between Embraer and Boeing is held up indefinitely.

The only reason why it went down to 3 is because Airbus acquires the C Series program. So yes, they need to keep it as four separate independent payers to be fair.

If I were Bombardier, I would sell the stake in Airbus Canada Limited Partnership, take the cash and RUN.
 
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Polot
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:26 pm

VV wrote:
Naincompetent wrote:
VV wrote:
It is curious and strange the European Union now becomes concerned by the the joint venture when they approved the take-over of the C Series program by Airbus more than six months early. There is obviously a worry that the E2 can be very strong in the market, otherwise there would be not objection whatsoever from the European Union.


There is absolutely nothing curious here.
A reduction of the market from 4 to 3 players does not have the same impact as a reduction from 3 to 2 players.
It is just a timing issue


Yes, it is timing issue and it could well trigger a strange situation where someone file a complaint such that Airbus releases the C Series program if the joint-venture between Embraer and Boeing is held up indefinitely.

The only reason why it went down to 3 is because Airbus acquires the C Series program. So yes, they need to keep it as four separate independent payers to be fair.

If I were Bombardier, I would sell the stake in Airbus Canada Limited Partnership, take the cash and RUN.


The biggest issue is that things might get complicated for Airbus in regards to taking over the rest of the program. That may trigger another review.
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:31 pm

Polot wrote:
VV wrote:

Yes, it is timing issue and it could well trigger a strange situation where someone file a complaint such that Airbus releases the C Series program if the joint-venture between Embraer and Boeing is held up indefinitely.

The only reason why it went down to 3 is because Airbus acquires the C Series program. So yes, they need to keep it as four separate independent payers to be fair.

If I were Bombardier, I would sell the stake in Airbus Canada Limited Partnership, take the cash and RUN.


The biggest issue is that things might get complicated for Airbus in regards to taking over the rest of the program. That may trigger another review.


Yep.

So, Bombardier needs to sell their stake quickly before things get worse. The European Union's hold up can have unsuspected consequences.
 
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PW100
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:56 pm

VV wrote:
[What the heck are you talking about.

Now, on the E190-E2 and E195-E2 there are not so many orders, but they are ramping it up very slowly.


Perhaps, there might be a correlation between orders and ramp-up speed . . .
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:48 pm

PW100 wrote:
VV wrote:
[What the heck are you talking about.

Now, on the E190-E2 and E195-E2 there are not so many orders, but they are ramping it up very slowly.


Perhaps, there might be a correlation between orders and ramp-up speed . . .


No.

The C Series ramp up is also extremely slow for an aircraft that is already three years in service. I think there is a REAL problem with the engine delivery.
 
yyztpa2
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:20 pm

VV wrote:
PW100 wrote:
VV wrote:
[What the heck are you talking about.

Now, on the E190-E2 and E195-E2 there are not so many orders, but they are ramping it up very slowly.


Perhaps, there might be a correlation between orders and ramp-up speed . . .


No.

The C Series ramp up is also extremely slow for an aircraft that is already three years in service. I think there is a REAL problem with the engine delivery.


Engines may be slow delivery but the production rate for 2019 seems to almost line up with where it was forecast to be as far back as August 2018 when this article indicated Air Canada was to receive their first A220 in December 2019
https://www.airportspotting.com/fly-airbus-a220/.
 
tommy1808
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:00 am

VV wrote:
The only reason why it went down to 3 is because Airbus acquires the C Series program. So yes, they need to keep it as four separate independent payers to be fair.


Creative look at history in deed. After Airbus took over half the C-Series program Bombardier was still the 4th player in the commercial airliner market, in the same part of the market they ever had any traction to speak of, Q400 and CRJ. Bombardier didn´t stop being the forth before they sold the other Programs.

best regards
Thomas
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VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:41 am

tommy1808 wrote:
VV wrote:
The only reason why it went down to 3 is because Airbus acquires the C Series program. So yes, they need to keep it as four separate independent payers to be fair.


Creative look at history in deed. After Airbus took over half the C-Series program Bombardier was still the 4th player in the commercial airliner market, in the same part of the market they ever had any traction to speak of, Q400 and CRJ. Bombardier didn´t stop being the forth before they sold the other Programs.

best regards
Thomas



Come on. CRJ is dead anyway. It is dead since Bombardier launched the C Series.

I really think someone will just file a request such that Airbus releases its grip on the C Series.

That's why I think Bombardier needs to sell its stake in Airbus Canada limited partnership, grab the cash AND RUN.

The question is who can or wants to buy Bombardier's stake?
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:46 am

Or maybe the government of Canada and the government of Québec can buy the whole thing from Airbus and Bombardier at five billion dollars.
 
Naincompetent
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:21 pm

Polot wrote:
VV wrote:
Yes, it is timing issue and it could well trigger a strange situation where someone file a complaint such that Airbus releases the C Series program if the joint-venture between Embraer and Boeing is held up indefinitely.

The only reason why it went down to 3 is because Airbus acquires the C Series program. So yes, they need to keep it as four separate independent payers to be fair.

If I were Bombardier, I would sell the stake in Airbus Canada Limited Partnership, take the cash and RUN.


The biggest issue is that things might get complicated for Airbus in regards to taking over the rest of the program. That may trigger another review.



First of all, there is no need to keep 4 independent players, it may be a bonus to the consumer but a 3 player market is not a threat for the consumer, especially as the part that Airbus bought had 0 market share. So in effect, Airbus buying the C-series program had a négligeable impact from a market dominance POW. By the way, Airbus and Bombardier did go through a process of regulatory approval for their partnership, there was scrutiny for the regulator.
That's is not so with Boeing buying Ambraer because we go down 3 to 2 but more importantly because of the existing market share held by Ambraer. If Boeing wants to by the space jet program tomorrow, they will not undergo the same level of scrutiny...

Secondly, Airbus already possess a controlling share of the partnership and the buyout options for Quebec and Bombardier share were already on the table of the regulator when the partnership was approved, nothing to fear from this side.

The only cloud on the horizon relates to the WTO complaint of Brasil against Canada, but it could take years to be processed
 
dtremit
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
I was a little surprised that they fit 140 eats on 220-300. But then again, AirBaltic managed to fit 145 seats with 31 rows of seating. So 28 rows seems to be plenty of space. Not sure how many rows A220-500 will have, but 162 to 170 seat version would be very attractive for B6. Would be the perfect replacement for their reconfigured A320. I guess maybe they will have to do with fewer EMS rows?


Alternately, if the A220-500 ends up having sufficient range for transcon flying, it might be the plane that makes the case for "junior Mint."
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
spinotter wrote:
K and W were radio stations and N were navy stations, right?
As you say TV/radio broadcast stations in the US have W east of the Mississippi and K west of the Mississippi with some exceptions.

I'm not sure about N being reserved for Navy radio callsigns, mainly because whilst this was going on we also had aircraft with the following registrations...
NC = airline, commercial and private
NG = glider (have you ever seen such a registration, eh Rev?)
NR = restricted (such as cropdusters and racing aircraft)
NX = experimental
Meanwhile NY1 & NY2 were used by radio hams in the Panama Canal Zone, and NY4 at Guantanamo Bay.

For example, N-X-211, the Ryan NYP aircraft flown by Charles Lindbergh as the Spirit of St. Louis was registered in the experimental category
Here are Douglas DC-1 "X-223Y" (aka NX223Y), and Boeing 247 NC-13381.

Of course not every flying machine carried a radio transmitter (even today), but it's probably still a good idea to have a radio callsign allocated anyways.

Then again, there are yet more strange exceptions; for example, N4YZ is, on the one hand, a Cessna 206 registered to a private individual in California, while N4YZ is also issued to an Amateur Radio operator in North Carolina.
Skyraider N2AD is a similar case, although I suspect this radio ham might also transmit as "K-N2AD" (Greenville, NC)


The 1927 Radio Callsigns Conference makes for a great read; I suggest pages 69-71

FWIW Brazil was allocated PPA-PYZ, possibly in lieu of initial letters A & B being unavailable, otherwise it would have probably claimed BRA-Bxx

(Thx as usual to Wikipedia & others)
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
dtremit
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:06 pm

TObound wrote:
The proportion of EMS seats seems low compared to the 320 and 321. And the pitch in economy still seems a tad low. Curious to see how B6 customers react.


Percentage of seats in EMS on the A220 (just under 18%) is in between the E190 (16%) and the A320/A321 (20-21%), which makes sense. Less demand on shorter routes.
 
TObound
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:41 am

dtremit wrote:
TObound wrote:
The proportion of EMS seats seems low compared to the 320 and 321. And the pitch in economy still seems a tad low. Curious to see how B6 customers react.


Percentage of seats in EMS on the A220 (just under 18%) is in between the E190 (16%) and the A320/A321 (20-21%), which makes sense. Less demand on shorter routes.


It's not just the reduced proportion of EMS that surprised me. I expected a layout closer to 135 with one more EMS row and 31-32" throughout core.

I get that the 223s are replacing E90s first and foremost. But I expected with capacity closer to a 320 than an E90, there would be some 320 rotations getting replaced and hence some higher proportion of EMS. But I guess they have data that says customers are willing to accept 30" in core and fewer EMS seats on short-haul.
 
tphuang
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:04 am

TObound wrote:
dtremit wrote:
TObound wrote:
The proportion of EMS seats seems low compared to the 320 and 321. And the pitch in economy still seems a tad low. Curious to see how B6 customers react.


Percentage of seats in EMS on the A220 (just under 18%) is in between the E190 (16%) and the A320/A321 (20-21%), which makes sense. Less demand on shorter routes.


It's not just the reduced proportion of EMS that surprised me. I expected a layout closer to 135 with one more EMS row and 31-32" throughout core.

I get that the 223s are replacing E90s first and foremost. But I expected with capacity closer to a 320 than an E90, there would be some 320 rotations getting replaced and hence some higher proportion of EMS. But I guess they have data that says customers are willing to accept 30" in core and fewer EMS seats on short-haul.

What? The core seat will still be 32 inch in pitch and ems will be 35. They have 28 rows, that's 2 less rows than air Baltic.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:27 am

Air Sengal looks close to buying 8 A220.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... rbus-a220s

I personally hope they lease existing orders as that just seems more prudent.

But a possible win for the A220 that if it happens shows enough economy of scale has happened to open up the market.

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HaulSudson
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:22 am

Thin routes of a couple of hours... Perhaps the sweet spot for African airlines.
 
Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:44 pm

Bingo1 wrote:
VV wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:


This:
Source: https://aviationweek.com/crossover-narr ... -e2-family

Excerpt:
"Final assembly of the E-Jets will remain spread across several hangars, but processes are changing in almost all of them.

Engines and cabin interiors are installed in the F220 building in Sao Jose dos Campos, which has been completely redone for the hybrid line. As the E2 is introduced, a dedicated station for the new version will be retained for the first four to six customer aircraft in a phased approach to making the full line hybrid and so as not to disrupt the faster workflow on the E1s. In a second phase, one of the stations will be used in hybrid fashion for both the E1 and E2 to segregate risk in case any delays occur. In phase three, both E-Jet generations will be outfitted at all stations."


Deliveries due in 4Q2019:

- 1 E190-E2 to Air Astana (already delivered on November 2nd);
- 4 E195-E2 to Azul;
- 2 E195-E2 to Binter Canarias;
- 2 E190-E2 to Helvetic;
- 1 E190-E2 to Air Kiribati.


I think the best way to consider E2 very slow production production ramp(up is to compare it against its plan.

Embraer is still producing the previous version of the E190 and E195 and E2 is using the same final assembly line. They have alway planned a very slow ramp-up. Mostly due to the small number of orders so far and obviously because they need to finish the E1 production. I do not know how many E1 are still in the backlog.

Let us not forget the E2 was launched in 2013 or five years later than C Series launch. The C Series program has missed its delivery target three years in a row. This year may be the first time they meet the delivery target. As you know the target for 2019 is 45 aircraft.

There is an advantage being second in this very specific situation where the engine hardware is virtually identical between the E19x-E2 and the C Series. Despite the long development of the engines, it is not yet stabilized and there are still many issues. When the 2E will have to ramp up in 2020 and 2021, most probably the aircraft will have the latest build-standard with the latest corrections implemented.

It really is important to note that the launch of E2 was in 2013 or FIVE years after the C Series launch. The E2 has been on schedule so far. That's important in the sense that the budget is build according to the schedule, including the production plan. So far Embraer has not deviated too far away from the plan.

Unfortunately (or is it fortunately?) the plan changed last year with the announcement of the joint venture with Boeing. It is curious and strange the European Union now becomes concerned by the the joint venture when they approved the take-over of the C Series program by Airbus more than six months early. There is obviously a worry that the E2 can be very strong in the market, otherwise there would be not objection whatsoever from the European Union.


That is a quite a spin on the positivity of next to no orders. You do realize that if Embraer wants to stay in business they will need to sell airplanes, right? It is admirable that Embraer is able to keep their projects on time and on budget but if they can't sell they have no future. Transversely, any company that is late and over budget but has sales stands at least a solid chance of survival.


What keeps a company solvent is results ie revenue minus expense. BBD spent more than $ 5 billion on a pair of aircraft that has a potential market that appears to be a fraction of those immediately larger (B737 / A320), focusing on the 110-140-passenger segment. Its production cost is very high due to totally new plants (2), without synergy with the previous line (CRJ) and also because adoption of questionable technologies for the segment (wings in composite material and Al-Li alloys).

On the other hand, Embraer has spent 1.7 billion and in the same facility will produce aircraft between 70-130 passengers, the oldest (175E1) being the actual leader in the main market, with about 80% of sales.
 
HaulSudson
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:03 pm

It appears that Air Baltic is very happy with their A220s.

They report that the A220 is better than promised by BBD in every respect. For instance : Fuel savings vs their 737-300s come in at 22% instead of the promised 19%

On the flight Brussel-Riga the per seat costs sink by 54% compared to the Q400

The management can't wait until their other planes leave the fleet and they become an all A220 airline.

Also the A220 pilots are very excited about their workplace, the state of the art avionics and capabilities.


It seems hard to overestimate the A220.
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:52 pm

HaulSudson wrote:
It appears that Air Baltic is very happy with their A220s.
They report that the A220 is better than promised by BBD in every respect. For instance : Fuel savings vs their 737-300s come in at 22% instead of the promised 19%
On the flight Brussel-Riga the per seat costs sink by 54% compared to the Q400
The management can't wait until their other planes leave the fleet and they become an all A220 airline.
Also the A220 pilots are very excited about their workplace, the state of the art avionics and capabilities.
It seems hard to overestimate the A220.


Source ???
 
Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:16 pm

VV wrote:
Bingo1 wrote:
...
That is a quite a spin on the positivity of next to no orders. You do realize that if Embraer wants to stay in business they will need to sell airplanes, right? It is admirable that Embraer is able to keep their projects on time and on budget but if they can't sell they have no future. Transversely, any company that is late and over budget but has sales stands at least a solid chance of survival.


I hope you are well aware that Embraer is still delivering commercial aircraft today, especially the E175 and a smal number of the previous generation E190 and E195. It is at delivery when the bulk of income comes in.

So I just do not understand your comment about selling aircraft. Yes, Embraer does sell aircraft and more importantly they still deliver commercial aircraft in addition to their business aircraft and the military ones.

What the heck are you talking about.

Now, on the E190-E2 and E195-E2 there are not so many orders, but they are ramping it up very slowly. As far as orders are concerned, I do not think they need to "panic". I would panic more if I have to change engine three or three times for each aircraft during the first year of operation like AirBaltic did. Some airlines are doing it too, like Swiss.

Seriously, Embraer has an advantage being second to enter into service. In addition let us never forget that the E2 was launched FIVE damn long years after the launch of the C Series.

In my opinion they are doing pretty well so far by maintaining the development expenses close to the prediction.


I sincerely believe it is not very productive to under estimate the E190-E2 and especially the E195-E2. THere is not an urgency so far. I believe the assault in term or order can start only once the deal with Boeing will close.

When will it close? We do not know for sure yet. The investigation by the European Union is still on going. It seems the EU's approval would not be achieved before march 2020.

Now, I do not understand AT ALL why the European Union is so worried by an aircraft that does not have many orders. THis is completely absurd. Really absurd. Do they see a potential of the E2 more than you guys here see it? If it is not the case then why the hell are they holding up such a joint-venture.

And yes, Boeing will spend 4.2 billion dollars to acquire 80% of Embraer commercial aircraft, but it would not make any damn sense if there is no potential for their aircraft program, right?

I know that it is more expensive than one symbolic dollar to acquire a 50% of the C Series program. Well yes, probably it is because the C Series has such a huge potential.

The long delay in EU approval seems to be just a page of the long book on protectionist practices.
 
Jungleneer
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:50 am

It is just funny that China already approved the Boeing/Embraer merger with all this trade dispute mess, without any restrictions and EU still doesn't.
 
TObound
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:19 am

EMBSPBR wrote:
HaulSudson wrote:
It appears that Air Baltic is very happy with their A220s.
They report that the A220 is better than promised by BBD in every respect. For instance : Fuel savings vs their 737-300s come in at 22% instead of the promised 19%
On the flight Brussel-Riga the per seat costs sink by 54% compared to the Q400
The management can't wait until their other planes leave the fleet and they become an all A220 airline.
Also the A220 pilots are very excited about their workplace, the state of the art avionics and capabilities.
It seems hard to overestimate the A220.


Source ???


http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/ceo-air ... el-savings
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:46 am

HaulSudson wrote:
It appears that Air Baltic is very happy with their A220s.
....


Good for them.
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:49 am

Nean1 wrote:
......
The long delay in EU approval seems to be just a page of the long book on protectionist practices.


I think there is nothing in Europe to protect against Embraer's product.

It is probably more about a very bureaucratic attitude just like those Vogons in H2G2.
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:51 am

Jungleneer wrote:
It is just funny that China already approved the Boeing/Embraer merger with all this trade dispute mess, without any restrictions and EU still doesn't.


It is very interesting indeed.

We still do not know what the real motivation is behind this hold-up.
 
Lewton
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:03 am

Jungleneer wrote:
It is just funny that China already approved the Boeing/Embraer merger with all this trade dispute mess, without any restrictions and EU still doesn't.

I don't find it funny, I find it deeply satisfying. 8-)
From Hamburg with love.
 
SA280
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:03 am

VV wrote:
Jungleneer wrote:
It is just funny that China already approved the Boeing/Embraer merger with all this trade dispute mess, without any restrictions and EU still doesn't.


It is very interesting indeed.

We still do not know what the real motivation is behind this hold-up.

Clearly it is a retaliation for the 10% import tax that The US has imposed on Airbus products.
 
VV
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:05 am

SA280 wrote:
VV wrote:
Jungleneer wrote:
It is just funny that China already approved the Boeing/Embraer merger with all this trade dispute mess, without any restrictions and EU still doesn't.


It is very interesting indeed.

We still do not know what the real motivation is behind this hold-up.

Clearly it is a retaliation for the 10% import tax that The US has imposed on Airbus products.


I think they are just applying the decision of the WTO.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:46 pm

Leasing companies just found a home for two more E2-190:

https://simpleflying.com/somon-air-e2-order/amp/

This is why customers in quantity are needed. That helps the leasors find customers. In particular after enough of the other services are widely available (parts, flight sims).

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Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:51 pm

The very existence of 195E2 probable makes CS100/300 unprofitable to Airbus.
 
tphuang
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:06 pm

Nean1 wrote:
The very existence of 195E2 probable makes CS100/300 unprofitable to Airbus.

That's funny because it's actually the other way around. A220 is getting enough economy of scale now that it will be produced cheaper over time. That will allow them to price a220 at a level completely unprofitable for lower production e2. E2 really needs more orders.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2, market battle already won by Airbus ?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
The very existence of 195E2 probable makes CS100/300 unprofitable to Airbus.

That's funny because it's actually the other way around. A220 is getting enough economy of scale now that it will be produced cheaper over time. That will allow them to price a220 at a level completely unprofitable for lower production e2. E2 really needs more orders.

The E2-195 has little impact on the A220-300. I agree that it reduces profit on the A221. As noted, finally a chance to ramp to minimal economy of scalw, 100+ per year. Every doubling of production reduces cost 10% to 15%. Both need more economy of scale.


Thanks to the PW800 family, the engines will acheive economy of scalw. I fully admit I hoped for earlier scale.

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