As noted, be careful reading the 2nd chart. Assuming a fixed payload for very different sized aircraft (a mere hundred passengers) assume one or more of the following:
1. A yield management team that is asleep, drunk, or on holiday.
2. An odd day for passenger count (e.g., last Thursday in the USA).
3. An airline heading into bankruptcy as no one routinely flies low load factors, excluding island hopping or subsidized service.
mm... i was reading it:
a) Top Chart: High Season, can sell as many tickets as you have seats available at good prices = planes full
b) Bottom Chart: Beyond 100 seats you have to dump tickets to fill them beyond 100 seats
For b, then it should be as is normal in say September, put aircraft through maintenance or otherwise park them reducing service. For the US3, that is an obvious switch to a regional partner for the slow season or reduce flights.
The opposite of last Sunday. 859 more flights added to accommodate the Thanksgiving rush while the prior Thursday was very reduced service (few fliers, let the staff see their families). https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ving-rush/
For example, Hawaiian flies their 717s 17 flights per day during busy season, but averages only 14 flights per day for the year. That implies for every busy season day there is a day with 11 (or fewer) flights per day. But what matters is cost/ability. The A220 will take in the money during peak season and do so very economically. During low season, it will fly at light loads for little.
We're back in low season in the USA for a little while, so we see JetBlue offing $40 fares. This is the prisoner's dilemma except airlines can recover. If one airline is dumping, all must dump. But why not reposition the flights like JetBlue does (to holiday destinations)?
The extreme is Allegiant and Volotea. Those two airlines only fly on high demand days (e.g., park on Tuesday and Wednesday unless there is enough demand to raise fairs and park many aircraft during low seasons).
Since we are talking A221/3 Vs E295, we should talk Delta. Delta has a huge subfleet of 717s that when I went through their utilization, I found 4-5 cycles per day (on average) and 5 to 6 hours per day. That tells me DL will, once the A220s are proven, fly the A220s hard and will park the extremely low fixed cost 717s on low days (but fly enough to maintain the pilot pool). I expect airlines replacing E190s to keep some around as the low utilization aircraft. This has been the nature of high fixed cost/low variable cost vs. low fixed cost/high variable cost flying for decades. Effectively, every airline needs 3 subfleets, the new fleet to fly intensely, a mid-fleet to only fly intensely during high season, and a low utilization fleet to only fly during peak yield (e.g., DL flies more for a peak morning and evening hub bank every day, but will cut back other banks on Tuesday/Wednesday during low season while still serving the main banks to ensure no city losses connectivity, but DL will charge more for the peak banks and due to the convenience earns a higher fare).
So the yield department must be drunk, on Holiday, or it is an odd Holiday that has an A220 flying only 100 passengers. e.g., flights on Thanksgiving day and Christmas day are traditionally the cheapest:https://abc7.com/travel/best-day-of-the ... l/5567949/
But one doesn't buy aircraft for 2 days per year. Just as no one buys aircraft for the Sunday after Thanksgiving where everything flies and if not, someone has to explain every non-flying aircraft to a vice-president who must stand before the board to explain the lessons learned.
The E295 isn't cheap enough for low season to pay for the lost high season revenue is the way I read those charts. If low season persists, airlines need to be like Allegiant and Volotea and only buy used. In my opinion, airlines should only buy new for 8.5 hours+ of daily utilization (on average), with obviously Island hoppers and other unique cases worthy of their own case study.
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