JonesNL wrote:

David Neeleman discussing the fuel burn differences of 195, 195-E2 and A220 and missions differences between the two:

https://crankyflier.com/2020/02/07/davi ... the-aisle/

David: The 195 works good at about 2 hours. Once you start getting to 3 hours, the fuel consumption per seat is… I mean the E2 has the same engines as the 220 and it’s burning 20% less fuel than the 195s are. So you can imagine if we have 145 seats on a 220 — that’s the coach configuration — and it’s burning less fuel than the 195s and you fly the thing on three-hour, four-hour, five-hour stage lengths… there are a lot of three, four-hour transcons in the US as well.

I don’t think we’ll have any routes for the 195 that are over 2 hours, maybe 2 hours 15 minutes. The fuel doesn’t make sense. It burns 600 gallons an hour and the 220 will burn maybe you know, 560, or something. But the [acquisition] cost of the 220s is a lot more, obviously. So you have to fly it more but if you’re flying it losing money on certain days of the week, then that doesn’t work either, so [the 195 and 220] work good together.

195= 600 gallons (2271L)/ hour
195-E2= 20% less = 480 gallons (1817L)/ hour
A220= 560 gallons (2120L)/ hour

Are we talking about A220-100 or A220-300. Because E195-2 is kind of in between them 2 in terms of seating capacity.

ewt340 wrote:

JonesNL wrote:

David Neeleman discussing the fuel burn differences of 195, 195-E2 and A220 and missions differences between the two:

https://crankyflier.com/2020/02/07/davi ... the-aisle/

David: The 195 works good at about 2 hours. Once you start getting to 3 hours, the fuel consumption per seat is… I mean the E2 has the same engines as the 220 and it’s burning 20% less fuel than the 195s are. So you can imagine if we have 145 seats on a 220 — that’s the coach configuration — and it’s burning less fuel than the 195s and you fly the thing on three-hour, four-hour, five-hour stage lengths… there are a lot of three, four-hour transcons in the US as well.

I don’t think we’ll have any routes for the 195 that are over 2 hours, maybe 2 hours 15 minutes. The fuel doesn’t make sense. It burns 600 gallons an hour and the 220 will burn maybe you know, 560, or something. But the [acquisition] cost of the 220s is a lot more, obviously. So you have to fly it more but if you’re flying it losing money on certain days of the week, then that doesn’t work either, so [the 195 and 220] work good together.

195= 600 gallons (2271L)/ hour
195-E2= 20% less = 480 gallons (1817L)/ hour
A220= 560 gallons (2120L)/ hour

Are we talking about A220-100 or A220-300. Because E195-2 is kind of in between them 2 in terms of seating capacity.

Neelman has only ordered -300 so most likely those

Another battle won by the A220 : https://airbuspress.airbus-helicopters. ... tml?id=442

as said before, the A220 could be ideal for African airlines. In this case, the A220 can probably serve all African destinations from Nigeria, plus a bunch of European ones.

HaulSudson wrote:

Another battle won by the A220 : https://airbuspress.airbus-helicopters. ... tml?id=442

as said before, the A220 could be ideal for African airlines. In this case, the A220 can probably serve all African destinations from Nigeria, plus a bunch of European ones.

Good luck Air Peace, ops, Green Africa

EMBSPBR wrote:

HaulSudson wrote:

Another battle won by the A220 : https://airbuspress.airbus-helicopters. ... tml?id=442

as said before, the A220 could be ideal for African airlines. In this case, the A220 can probably serve all African destinations from Nigeria, plus a bunch of European ones.

Good luck Air Peace, ops, Green Africa

The grapes taste sour, don't they.

I still think the E195 E-2 is a awesomely cool looking airplane which will find its niche.

KlimaBXsst wrote:

I still think the E195 E-2 is a awesomely cool looking airplane which will find its niche.

But is a niche enough to be a commercial success? You don't launch a plane to sell just a few pieces.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

HaulSudson wrote:

EMBSPBR wrote:

HaulSudson wrote:

Another battle won by the A220 : https://airbuspress.airbus-helicopters. ... tml?id=442

as said before, the A220 could be ideal for African airlines. In this case, the A220 can probably serve all African destinations from Nigeria, plus a bunch of European ones.

Good luck Air Peace, ops, Green Africa

The grapes taste sour, don't they.

Oh come an. As much as I cheer Airbus, we are talking about a start-up airline in Nigeria.
What can possible go wrong?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focke-Wulf_Fw_200_Condor

I probably enjoy the looks of the 195-E2 cause I really enjoy the looks of this airplane

chiad wrote:

HaulSudson wrote:

EMBSPBR wrote:

Good luck Air Peace, ops, Green Africa

The grapes taste sour, don't they.

Oh come an. As much as I cheer Airbus, we are talking about a start-up airline in Nigeria.
What can possible go wrong?

A lot.

But even this kind of airline doesnt provide the E2 with a desperately needed "win"...

EMBSPBR wrote:

HaulSudson wrote:

Another battle won by the A220 : https://airbuspress.airbus-helicopters. ... tml?id=442

as said before, the A220 could be ideal for African airlines. In this case, the A220 can probably serve all African destinations from Nigeria, plus a bunch of European ones.

Good luck Air Peace, ops, Green Africa

You’d be singing a very different tune if they’d ordered E2s.

scbriml wrote:

EMBSPBR wrote:

HaulSudson wrote:

Another battle won by the A220 : https://airbuspress.airbus-helicopters. ... tml?id=442

as said before, the A220 could be ideal for African airlines. In this case, the A220 can probably serve all African destinations from Nigeria, plus a bunch of European ones.

Good luck Air Peace, ops, Green Africa

You’d be singing a very different tune if they’d ordered E2s.

No, I wouldn´t ... I saw this happening many times before to Embraer regarding startups ... mainly from Africa countries ... and I know how it ended up.
Anyway, good luck to them ...

And, just to reminder ...

December 23, 2018
"Based in Lagos, the startup aims to operate as a value airline. The airline already has a full complement of senior staff. Additionally, they have just passed a deal worth US$11.7 billion with Boeing. Surprisingly for a startup airline, this marks Africa’s largest aircraft agreement. In total, the deal sees the startup ordering 100 B737-MAX8 aircraft."

and then ...

February 13, 2020
"Nigerian carrier Green Africa Airways has tentatively agreed to acquire 50 Airbus A220-300s, a potentially strong order for the twinjets."

EMBSPBR wrote:

scbriml wrote:

EMBSPBR wrote:

Good luck Air Peace, ops, Green Africa

You’d be singing a very different tune if they’d ordered E2s.

No, I wouldn´t ... I saw this happening many times before to Embraer regarding startups ... mainly from Africa countries ... and I know how it ended up.
Anyway, good luck to them ...

And, just to reminder ...

December 23, 2018
"Based in Lagos, the startup aims to operate as a value airline. The airline already has a full complement of senior staff. Additionally, they have just passed a deal worth US$11.7 billion with Boeing. Surprisingly for a startup airline, this marks Africa’s largest aircraft agreement. In total, the deal sees the startup ordering 100 B737-MAX8 aircraft."

and then ...

February 13, 2020
"Nigerian carrier Green Africa Airways has tentatively agreed to acquire 50 Airbus A220-300s, a potentially strong order for the twinjets."

I agree this order has risk. But it is an order. There were airlines I outright mocked the order and now they fly hundreds of aircraft. Most African startups will struggle, but a few will thrive.


But let us put it into perspective:
We're debating an 7.5% increase in orders for the A220
For the E2, the same aircraft quantity would be a 26% increase if I use wikipedia's numbers (which seem off as I see a double counting of the KLM order which are all leases):
https://embraer.com/global/en/news?slug ... r-aircraft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E-Jet_E2_family

The A220 remains viable without this order. Airbus has sales campaigns ongoing with Qantas and other airlines. ALC will be selling at Farnborough.

I will note there is a separate thread for A220 sales campaigns.
viewtopic.php?t=1438987

Orders from new airlines for A220 in 2019:
Air Astral
Air France
Air Vanatu
Air Tanzanian
Czech airlines
JetBlue

Only firmed 2020 order
Air Senegal

I thought Air Peace signed for the E2 (Qty 10):
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... th-in-2020

I do not worry about an aircraft that adds 7 customers, plus good leasing volume, in 13 months.
I do worry about an aircraft that has fewer than 20 airlines flying the type:
I count 19 firm airlines for the A220, does anyone have a better list as I probably missed leased examples?
I count 7 firm airlines for the E2, did I miss any?

The E2 'volume' (20+ aircraft to be operated) airlines are:
Azul
KLM


The A220 'volume' airlines are:
Delta
JetBlue
AirBaltic
AirFrance
Breeze (Moxie)
Air Canada
LH Group (Swiss)

We debate the order for 50 from an African airline, not yet confirmed.

To stay in the race, both need more volume airlines.

What we care about are competitions between the two for:
1. AeroMexico
2. TAP Portugal (I consider that Embraer must will either AeroMexico or TAP or their sales efforts will struggle even more)
3. Royal Jordanian (is this sales campaign still active?) https://aviationanalyst.co.uk/2019/06/0 ... mbraer-e2/
4. IAG (in particular, for LCY)
5. Air Niugini see: https://postcourier.com.pg/airbus-a220- ... t-moresby/
6. Ethiopian
7. Interjet (for last two, see here, although I disagree with the bias of the link as a deal isn't done until it is signed: https://www.airway1.com/airbus-may-clos ... -interjet/)

Err... no surprise there are no Asian airlines I can think of, at this time.

Of course, whomever wins HA will light off a.net, but that order is years away: https://thepointsguy.com/news/hawaiian- ... 717-fleet/
"When Hawaiian does retire those Boeings, industry watchers said the airline will likely replace it with the Airbus A220, though the Embraer E-Jet E2 is also an option."
Note: I would think the MRJ-90 would also be considered, but low probability.

With Embraer able to deliver aircraft late in the year for top off orders (E-175s), it is obvious their backlog is an issue: https://www.flightglobal.com/orders-and ... 64.article
I wish them luck. They need the merger with Boeing to help sales. But will that be enough?

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Of course, whomever wins HA will light off a.net, but that order is years away: https://thepointsguy.com/news/hawaiian- ... 717-fleet/
"When Hawaiian does retire those Boeings, industry watchers said the airline will likely replace it with the Airbus A220, though the Embraer E-Jet E2 is also an option."
Note: I would think the MRJ-90 would also be considered, but low probability.

With Embraer able to deliver aircraft late in the year for top off orders (E-175s), it is obvious their backlog is an issue: https://www.flightglobal.com/orders-and ... 64.article
I wish them luck. They need the merger with Boeing to help sales. But will that be enough?

Lightsaber

Two observations/questions:

I would think the E2 would be a better choice for Hawaiian vs the A220? The E2 should be cheaper and with virtually 100% very short flights the A220's advantages in long range fuel burn and total range are totally irrelevant.

Since the current E175 is now the only US scope compliant aircraft available with the CRJ 900 going away, I think there will be more E175 orders to come from the US. E175 orders from the US should keep the Embraer production lines going. And no, the Spacejet light (Skinny Godzilla) is not an option since it will not be available for many years, if ever.

Jetport wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Of course, whomever wins HA will light off a.net, but that order is years away: https://thepointsguy.com/news/hawaiian- ... 717-fleet/
"When Hawaiian does retire those Boeings, industry watchers said the airline will likely replace it with the Airbus A220, though the Embraer E-Jet E2 is also an option."
Note: I would think the MRJ-90 would also be considered, but low probability.

With Embraer able to deliver aircraft late in the year for top off orders (E-175s), it is obvious their backlog is an issue: https://www.flightglobal.com/orders-and ... 64.article
I wish them luck. They need the merger with Boeing to help sales. But will that be enough?

Lightsaber

Two observations/questions:

I would think the E2 would be a better choice for Hawaiian vs the A220? The E2 should be cheaper and with virtually 100% very short flights the A220's advantages in long range fuel burn and total range are totally irrelevant.

Since the current E175 is now the only US scope compliant aircraft available with the CRJ 900 going away, I think there will be more E175 orders to come from the US. E175 orders from the US should keep the Embraer production lines going. And no, the Spacejet light (Skinny Godzilla) is not an option since it will not be available for many years, if ever.

If Airbus on the other side grows the range on the A220 and gets ETOPS up (or especially not removed, P&W needs to sort their sh*t before it hits the fan) than the A220 could open west coast to the smaller islands.

I'm starting to think that the problem with the E2 is if you want a plane in that category, to fly the routes its optimised for, you might as well go for the A220, which is only a little bit bigger, more range, owned by Airbus.

Again. A scope compliant 170E2 would fly off the shelves. It's weird they didnt do it.

SEU wrote:

I'm starting to think that the problem with the E2 is if you want a plane in that category, to fly the routes its optimised for, you might as well go for the A220, which is only a little bit bigger, more range, owned by Airbus.

Again. A scope compliant 170E2 would fly off the shelves. It's weird they didnt do it.

I don't understand why both Embraer and Mitsubishi ignored scope compliance. Mitsubishi is bragging about hundreds of (I assume) M100 commitments. Obviously they need to deliver a plane. Obviously Embraer needs to sell any E2-175.


https://www.nasdaq.com%2farticles%2fmit ... 2-11%3famp

But those are planes that compete below the A220 sales space. So only related in that it impacts E2 production economics (ship more rivets, pay less per rivet).

Neither has great economics of scale.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

I don't understand why both Embraer and Mitsubishi ignored scope compliance. Mitsubishi is bragging about hundreds of (I assume) M100 commitments. Obviously they need to deliver a plane. Obviously Embraer needs to sell any E2-175.


https://www.nasdaq.com%2farticles%2fmit ... 2-11%3famp

But those are planes that compete below the A220 sales space. So only related in that it impacts E2 production economics (ship more rivets, pay less per rivet).

Neither has great economics of scale.

Embraer and Mitsubishi certainly misjudged the determination of US employees not to tolerate continued airline outsourcing of good paying jobs, to one’s in the regional industry at poverty level subsistence for so many.

SEU wrote:

I'm starting to think that the problem with the E2 is if you want a plane in that category, to fly the routes its optimised for, you might as well go for the A220, which is only a little bit bigger, more range, owned by Airbus.

Again. A scope compliant 170E2 would fly off the shelves. It's weird they didnt do it.

In the article below, the TAP Portugal CEO, gave a hint on the possible reason the E2 struggles in sales.

“Price is not the only factor. Credit costs, maintenance and performance guarantees are all likely to be better under Boeing than Embraer can offer by itself, Neves told Reuters.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sing ... SKBN2081T6

Also, Slattery stated in Singapore Airshow that several customers are just sit waiting for the JV to come true, because they would like to know first with whom they will be dealing with.

marcogr12 wrote:

Why isnt the A221 selling as much as the A223? You would think commonality and flexibility would win the customers on both types...

Only slightly higher costs for 20 more seats...a lot more flexibility and efficiency with lower casm by upgauging.

marcogr12 wrote:

Why isnt the A221 selling as much as the A223? You would think commonality and flexibility would win the customers on both types...

Just like how MAX7 or A319neo wasn't selling as much as their bigger counterpart.
Most stretched models tend to do better because stretching usually increased fuel efficiency significantly.

ewt340 wrote:

marcogr12 wrote:

Why isnt the A221 selling as much as the A223? You would think commonality and flexibility would win the customers on both types...

Just like how MAX7 or A319neo wasn't selling as much as their bigger counterpart.
Most stretched models tend to do better because stretching usually increased fuel efficiency significantly.

That*s not the only reason. Global forecast for jets (so excluding the turboprops) in the next 20 years is around 44.000. The global forecast for regional jets (so up to 100 PAX) is around 2400 in the next 20 years, of them 1600 for the US market and 600 to 800 for the rest of the world. The US market demand is no "real" demand, it has primary an political demand (so scope clauses).
The 150 PAX market has a 20 years demand of up to 8000, estimations are between 4000 at lowest to up to 10.000. Something around 7.000 to 8.000 shall fit (and this is a big part of the total 44.000 jet pool). But the global demand seems to be something like PAX 125 to 150, the demand for smaller ones, so in the size of around PAX 100 to 125, is just limited. So there is just only a limited market of a jet in size of an A220-100, perhaps there is just a demand of 1000 jets, perhaps 1500 globally?
So there is possibly a market of 3500 to 4000 for jets with a size from 50 PAX to up to 125 PAX. And on this whole market, there are only few...more competitors, A220-100, E190, E195, E190E2, E175, E175E2, M90, M100, M200, SSJ100, ARJ21...and up to 100 they have to play against all of the turboprops...Q400, ATR42, ATR72, Xian MA600 and MA700, IL114-100 and IL114-300, IA N-245.....

The A220-100 will have a demand as niche plane for short runways but long routes or as island hoppers. But as island hopper, it will have to compete against turboprops, else against regional jets e.g. all the planes, which are smaller...all the local produced Jets and turboprops (so China and Russia) on routes sponsored by government ...

T4thH wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

marcogr12 wrote:

Why isnt the A221 selling as much as the A223? You would think commonality and flexibility would win the customers on both types...

Just like how MAX7 or A319neo wasn't selling as much as their bigger counterpart.
Most stretched models tend to do better because stretching usually increased fuel efficiency significantly.

That*s not the only reason. Global forecast for jets (so excluding the turboprops) in the next 20 years is around 44.000. The global forecast for regional jets (so up to 100 PAX) is around 2400 in the next 20 years, of them 1600 for the US market and 600 to 800 for the rest of the world. The US market demand is no "real" demand, it has primary an political demand (so scope clauses).
The 150 PAX market has a 20 years demand of up to 8000, estimations are between 4000 at lowest to up to 10.000. Something around 7.000 to 8.000 shall fit (and this is a big part of the total 44.000 jet pool). But the global demand seems to be something like PAX 125 to 150, the demand for smaller ones, so in the size of around PAX 100 to 125, is just limited. So there is just only a limited market of a jet in size of an A220-100, perhaps there is just a demand of 1000 jets, perhaps 1500 globally?
So there is possibly a market of 3500 to 4000 for jets with a size from 50 PAX to up to 125 PAX. And on this whole market, there are only few...more competitors, A220-100, E190, E195, E190E2, E175, E175E2, M90, M100, M200, SSJ100, ARJ21...and up to 100 they have to play against all of the turboprops...Q400, ATR42, ATR72, Xian MA600 and MA700, IL114-100 and IL114-300, IA N-245.....

The A220-100 will have a demand as niche plane for short runways but long routes or as island hoppers. But as island hopper, it will have to compete against turboprops, else against regional jets e.g. all the planes, which are smaller...all the local produced Jets and turboprops (so China and Russia) on routes sponsored by government ...

Hmm, yeah, my point is the fact that A319neo and MAX7 aren't as good as A220-300. It's not that there is no demand for it, it's just that A220-300 is the most efficient aircraft that could fill the demand.
As I pointed out in my previous comment. It's not that there is no demand for aircraft the size of A220-100. It's just that the larger variant have better operational cost and better fuel efficiency. And it's the main reason the -300 does way better in terms of sales.

lightsaber wrote:

The A220 'volume' airlines are:
Delta
...
...
AirFrance
....
Air Canada
LH Group (Swiss)

And they pretty much guarantee that their will be tech and spare part support for a long long time to come with at least some economy of scale.

best regards
Thomas

JayinKitsap wrote:

Anyone looking at the CS orders should note that there was a quiet period prior to Airbus completing its purchase of 50.01%. May 18 Air Baltic 30, Dec 18 JetBlue 60, Dec 18 Moxy 60, Dec 18 Delta 15, June 19 Delta 5 JetBlue 10 So 180 of the orders came once the sale was done.

It seems reasonable that E2 sales will brighten once Boeing Brazil is completed.

I do feel the 175E2 missed its sweet spot by being above the scope clauses. Maybe a 170E2 that squeaks inside of the clauses.

Meanwhile the Spacejet M90 just lost an order for 50 because it isn't scope compliant. What is interesting is the order is cancelled, not changed to the M100 compliant plane, no confidence?

https://www.aerotime.aero/zivile.zalage ... 0-canceled

There is no E170-E2. They chose the E175-E2 to fill that space hoping that scope would change. Well that was a bad choice. But with other programs burning money how do you propose Boeing Brazil covers the cost to bring out a new model.

EMBSPBR wrote:

scbriml wrote:

EMBSPBR wrote:

Good luck Air Peace, ops, Green Africa

You’d be singing a very different tune if they’d ordered E2s.

No, I wouldn´t ... I saw this happening many times before to Embraer regarding startups ... mainly from Africa countries ... and I know how it ended up.
Anyway, good luck to them ...

And, just to reminder ...

December 23, 2018
"Based in Lagos, the startup aims to operate as a value airline. The airline already has a full complement of senior staff. Additionally, they have just passed a deal worth US$11.7 billion with Boeing. Surprisingly for a startup airline, this marks Africa’s largest aircraft agreement. In total, the deal sees the startup ordering 100 B737-MAX8 aircraft."

and then ...

February 13, 2020
"Nigerian carrier Green Africa Airways has tentatively agreed to acquire 50 Airbus A220-300s, a potentially strong order for the twinjets."

https://simpleflying.com/green-africa-a ... st-launch/

Perhaps an indication that it actually might happen.

marcogr12 wrote:

Why isnt the A221 selling as much as the A223? You would think commonality and flexibility would win the customers on both types...

That's a very good question.

Should they also have a stretch above the A220-300?
If so, when will it happen?

In January the A220 seems to have won another 2 battles:

ALC ordered 50 A220-300

Air Senegal ordered 8 A220-300